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At least 1,333 records · Page 74

Assessment of Tools for Molten Salt Reactor Dose Rate Calculations

This report discusses a preliminary assessment of the capabilities of current state-of-the-art stochastic codes Shift and MCNP6 to calculate the ex-core radiation dose rates for a simplified Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) model. The Monte Carlo code Shift has been under significant development in recent years at ORNL as part of the CASL program and is now supported by NEAMS. Originally, Shift was developed for LWR ex-core calculations but with dose rate and shielding calculations specifically requested by the NEAMS program’s MSR industry partners, the MSR Application Drivers team was tasked with assessing Shift for non-LWR applications. This was the first application of the Shift code for non-LWRs and the findings can be considered preliminary due to the activities occurring only over a 5-month period. Attractive features of Shift include massive parallelization and advanced automated variance reduction techniques such as CADIS and FW-CADIS.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Long-Range Transport of Biomass Burning Aerosols from Southern Africa: A Case Study Using Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds Observations

A case study of an incoming biomass burning aerosol plume at Ascension Island is analyzed for the peak of the 2017 fire season using satellites, reanalysis and in situ observations. Measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility 1 reveal an abrupt change from relatively clean conditions (~70 parts per billion by volume of carbon monoxide) to a more polluted state (~150 parts per billion by volume of carbon monoxide). Corresponding changes in aerosol size reveal a broadening of size distributions toward larger optical diameters, consistent with the arrival of aged aerosols. Within a 24 h period, black carbon fraction increases ~500% from ~300 ng m e to ~1500 ng m 3 , while light absorption coefficients increase ~300%. Long-range transport of these aerosols is primarily confined between 2 and 5 km above sea level along the northwesterly trade winds. Our results show that the primary driver of increases in aerosol loading over Ascension Island is an intensification of the St. Helena high-pressure system (anticyclone) that leads to a weakening of trade winds and increases westward transport on its northern flank. A better understanding of the complex interactions between air quality, meteorology and long-range aerosol transport is important for future modeling studies focused on aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions over the open ocean and reducing its associated uncertainties.

aerosol size distribution↗

The Impact of Resolution on Double-detonation Models for Type Ia Supernovae

Abstract Thermonuclear supernovae are the result of the violent unbinding of a white dwarf (WD), but the precise nature of the explosion mechanism(s) is a matter of active debate. To this end, several specific scenarios have been proposed to explain the observable traits of Type Ia supernovae. A promising pathway is the double-detonation scenario, where a WD accretes a shell of helium-rich material from a companion and a detonation in the resulting helium shell is the primary cause of the explosion. Through a set of two-dimensional grid-based simulations of this scenario we clearly distinguish three phases of evolution: external helium-rich detonation, core compressive heating, and a final core carbon burn. Though final disruption of the whole system is achieved at all resolutions, only models with minimum resolutions of 4 km and better exhibit all three phases. Particularly, core compression detonation is only observed for higher resolutions, producing qualitatively different nucleosynthetic outcomes. We identify the effect of finer spatial resolution on the mixing of hot silicon at the interface between the detonating helium layer and the underlying C/O WD as a primary driver of these dynamic differences.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66% for the present day to roughly 68% to 85% by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (~5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5°C warming on the other.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The electrothermal ramjet

An electrothermal ramjet configuration is examined as a possible alternative to rail guns and mass drivers for high acceleration launch missions. For a specific mission (earth escape) the idealized performance of the electrothermal ramjet, the electrothermal rocket and the electromagnetic acceleration system are compared. This comparison indicates that the gross performance of the ramjet compares favorably with that of the ideal electromagnetic acceleration system. A specific configuration for the ramjet is chosen and models for the dynamics, thermodynamics and fluid mechanics are presented. Results of calculations for a typical supersonic launch cycle suggest that pressure, temperature and power demand profiles associated with ramjet operation should be reasonable. A light gas gun is proposed to accelerate the vehicle to the critical velocity where efficient ramjet operation can begin. The theoretical performance of the ramjet is also shown to be substantially better than that of the light gas gun at high velocities.

Wilbur, P. J.↗

TRMM On Orbit Attitude Control System Performance

This paper presents an overview of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Attitude Control System (ACS) along with detailed in-flight performance results for each operational mode. The TRMM spacecraft is an Earth-pointed, zero momentum bias satellite launched on November 27, 1997 from Tanegashima Space Center, Japan. TRMM is a joint mission between NASA and the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) of Japan designed to monitor and study tropical rainfall and the associated release of energy. Launched to provide a validation for poorly known rainfall data sets generated by global climate models, TRMM has demonstrated its utility by reducing uncertainties in global rainfall measurements by a factor of two. The ACS is comprised of Attitude Control Electronics (ACE), an Earth Sensor Assembly (ESA), Digital Sun Sensors (DSS), Inertial Reference Units (IRU), Three Axis Magnetometers (TAM), Coarse Sun Sensors (CSS), Magnetic Torquer Bars (MTB), Reaction Wheel Assemblies (RWA), Engine Valve Drivers (EVD) and thrusters. While in Mission Mode, the ESA provides roll and pitch axis attitude error measurements and the DSS provide yaw updates twice per orbit. In addition, the TAM in combination with the IRU and DSS can be used to provide pointing in a contingency attitude determination mode which does not rely on the ESA. Although the ACS performance to date has been highly successful, lessons were learned during checkout and initial on-orbit operation. This paper describes the design, on-orbit checkout, performance and lessons learned for the TRMM ACS.

Robertson, Brent↗

Vortex Rings Generated by a Shrouded Hartmann-Sprenger Tube

The pulsed flow emitted from a shrouded Hartmann-Sprenger tube was sampled with high-frequency pressure transducers and with laser particle imaging velocimetry, and found to consist of a train of vortices. Thrust and mass flow were also monitored using a thrust plate and orifice, respectively. The tube and shroud lengths were altered to give four different operating frequencies. From the data, the radius, velocity, and circulation of the vortex rings was obtained. Each frequency corresponded to a different length to diameter ratio of the pulse of air leaving the driver shroud. Two of the frequencies had length to diameter ratios below the formation number, and two above. The formation number is the value of length to diameter ratio below which the pulse converts to a vortex ring only, and above which the pulse becomes a vortex ring plus a trailing jet. A modified version of the slug model of vortex ring formation was used to compare the observations with calculated values. Because the flow exit area is an annulus, vorticity is shed at both the inner and outer edge of the jet. This results in a reduced circulation compared with the value calculated from slug theory accounting only for the outer edge. If the value of circulation obtained from laser particle imaging velocimetry is used in the slug model calculation of vortex ring velocity, the agreement is quite good. The vortex ring radius, which does not depend on the circulation, agrees well with predictions from the slug model.

DeLoof, Richard L.↗

Rho-Isp Revisited and Basic Stage Mass Estimating for Launch Vehicle Conceptual Sizing Studies

The ideal rocket equation is manipulated to demonstrate the essential link between propellant density and specific impulse as the two primary stage performance drivers for a launch vehicle. This is illustrated by examining volume-limited stages such as first stages and boosters. This proves to be a good approximation for first-order or Phase A vehicle design studies for solid rocket motors and for liquid stages, except when comparing to hydrogen-fueled stages. A next-order mass model is developed that is able to model the mass differences between hydrogen-fueled and other stages. Propellants considered range in density from liquid methane to inhibited red fuming nitric acid. Calculated comparisons are shown for solid rocket boosters, liquid first stages, liquid upper stages, and a balloon-deployed single-stage-to-orbit concept. The derived relationships are ripe for inclusion in a multi-stage design space exploration and optimization algorithm, as well as for single-parameter comparisons such as those shown herein.

Kibbey, Timothy P.↗

A Review of Recent Changes in Southern Ocean Sea Ice, Their Drivers and Forcings

Over the past 37years, satellite records show an increase in Antarctic sea ice cover that is most pronounced in the period of sea ice growth. This trend is dominated by increased sea ice coverage in the western Ross Sea, and is mitigated by a strong decrease in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas. The trends in sea ice areal coverage are accompanied by related trends in yearly duration. These changes have implications for ecosystems, as well as global and regional climate. In this review, we summarize the researchto date on observing these trends, identifying their drivers, and assessing the role of anthropogenic climate change. Whilst the atmosphere is thought to be the primary driver, the ocean is also essential in explaining the seasonality of the trend patterns. Detecting an anthropogenic signal in Antarctic sea ice is particularly challenging for a number of reasons: the expected response is small compared to the very high natural variability of the system; the observational record is relatively short; and the ability of global coupled climate models to faithfully represent the complex Antarctic climate system is in doubt.

Southern Ocean↗

A Common Probe Design for Multiple Planetary Destinations

Atmospheric probes have been successfully flown to planets and moons in the solar system to conduct in situ measurements. They include the Pioneer Venus multi-probes, the Galileo Jupiter probe, and Huygens probe. Probe mission concepts to five destinations, including Venus, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, have all utilized similar-shaped aeroshells and concept of operations, namely a 45-degree sphere cone shape with high density heatshield material and parachute system for extracting the descent vehicle from the aeroshell. Each concept designed its probe to meet specific mission requirements and to optimize mass, volume, and cost. At the 2017 International Planetary Probe Workshop (IPPW), NASA Headquarters postulated that a common aeroshell design could be used successfully for multiple destinations and missions. This "common probe" design could even be assembled with multiple copies, properly stored, and made available for future NASA missions, potentially realizing savings in cost and schedule and reducing the risk of losing technologies and skills difficult to sustain over decades. Thus the NASA Planetary Science Division funded a study to investigate whether a common probe design could meet most, if not all, mission needs to the five planetary destinations with extreme entry environments. The Common Probe study involved four NASA Centers and addressed these issues, including constraints and inefficiencies that occur in specifying a common design. Study methodology: First, a notional payload of instruments for each destination was defined based on priority measurements from the Planetary Science Decadal Survey. Steep and shallow entry flight path angles (EFPA) were defined for each planet based on qualification and operational g-load limits for current, state-of-the-art instruments. Interplanetary trajectories were then identified for a bounding range of EFPA. Next, 3-degrees-of-freedom simulations for entry trajectories were run using the entry state vectors from the interplanetary trajectories. Aeroheating correlations were used to generate stagnation point convective and radiative heat flux profiles for several aeroshell shapes and entry masses. High fidelity thermal response models for various Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials were used to size stagnation-point thicknesses, with margins based on previous studies. Backshell TPS masses were assumed based on scaled heat fluxes from the heatshield and also from previous mission concepts. Presentation: We will present an overview of the study scope, highlights of the trade studies and design driver analyses, and the final recommendations of a common probe design and assembly. We will also indicate limitations that the common probe design may have for the different destinations. Finally, recommended qualification approaches for missions will be presented.

Hwang, H. H.↗

Development of a Representative Molten Chloride Fast Reactor Model to Assess the Impact of Nuclear Data

The SCALE code system was employed to conduct a preliminary investigation of nuclear data impacts for a fast spectrum molten chloride salt reactor. A computationally effective depletion model that is representative of the reactor system was successfully developed and used to conduct fuel depletion simulations. Development of this model draws from the SLICE method that was developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to enable generation of fuel compositions for an advanced reactor core at equilibrium operation. Eigenvalue uncertainty calculations using the ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data library were performed for the reactor in the fresh fuel state and an irradiated fuel state. It was determined that the primary driver of eigenvalue uncertainty was the uncertainty in the 235U (n, 𝛾) cross section. Uncertainty calculation results from this study were compared to results available for a different fast system, a sodium-cooled fast reactor, to confirm similarities and identify differences with respect to nuclear data impacts between the two fast advanced reactor systems.

Hirji, Rakim [Georgia Institute of Technology]↗

Interactions Between Climate and Species Drive Future Forest Carbon and Water Balances

Global change is altering forest carbon and water balances; however, the extent to which tree species shape ecosystem‐scale responses to climate, particularly in biodiverse forests, remains unclear. To address this, we simulated the effects of an envelope of future climate conditions on watershed carbon and water balances and quantified the contributions of tree species based on their xylem anatomy. We accomplished this by incorporating species‐level transpiration calculations into a landscape‐scale ecosystem process model. Our revised model linked the effects of forest succession, species composition, and climate change on water and carbon. Calibration of forest water fluxes using sap flux measurements and catchment water balances captured variability in species transpiration and interannual ET in biodiverse, humid temperate forest catchments in the southern Blue Ridge Mountains, USA. Across wet and dry future climate projections, ET increased, and streamflow and net carbon uptake decreased, particularly under a scenario of increasing drought. Despite accounting for just 30% of current biomass, diffuse‐porous tree species were the main driver of carbon and water flux responses now and in the future, thus intensifying the increase in ET and decline in streamflow. As diffuse‐porous biomass continues to increase, these forests will be increasingly sensitive to drought, amplifying losses of carbon sequestration and freshwater delivery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Technoeconomic Analysis of Changing PV System Layout and Convection Heat Transfer

This work includes analysis of potential economic improvements for PV systems for changing system parameters such as ground coverage ratio that alter the convective cooling consideration on PV modules through a newly proposed convective curve fit. Accounting for the spatial layout of the system in the convection heat transfer calculations allows for more accuracy in convective cooling load and subsequent module temperature calculations. The changing heat transfer considerations can be shown to improve system LCOE along with improved incident irradiance from increased row spacing despite the additional system costs incurred with increased module spacing. State-level analyses show that the impact of decreasing system GCR is greatest for climates with cold average annual ambient temperatures and moderate to high average annual wind speeds. Further waterfall analysis of changing system parameters reveals that the changing heat transfer dynamics have a non-negligible impact on system LCOE when compared to the changes in incident irradiance that serve as the primary driver of annual energy performance changes.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

Volume IV. The DUNE far detector single-phase technology

The preponderance of matter over antimatter in the early universe, the dynamics of the supernovae that produced the heavy elements necessary for life, and whether protons eventually decay -- these mysteries at the forefront of particle physics and astrophysics are key to understanding the early evolution of our universe, its current state, and its eventual fate. DUNE is an international world-class experiment dedicated to addressing these questions as it searches for leptonic charge-parity symmetry violation, stands ready to capture supernova neutrino bursts, and seeks to observe nucleon decay as a signature of a grand unified theory underlying the standard model. Central to achieving DUNE's physics program is a far detector that combines the many tens-of-kiloton fiducial mass necessary for rare event searches with sub-centimeter spatial resolution in its ability to image those events, allowing identification of the physics signatures among the numerous backgrounds. In the single-phase liquid argon time-projection chamber (LArTPC) technology, ionization charges drift horizontally in the liquid argon under the influence of an electric field towards a vertical anode, where they are read out with fine granularity. A photon detection system supplements the TPC, directly enhancing physics capabilities for all three DUNE physics drivers and opening up prospects for further physics explorations. The DUNE far detector technical design report (TDR) describes the DUNE physics program and the technical designs of the single- and dual-phase DUNE liquid argon TPC far detector modules. Volume IV presents an overview of the basic operating principles of a single-phase LArTPC, followed by a description of the DUNE implementation. Each of the subsystems is described in detail, connecting the high-level design requirements and decisions to the overriding physics goals of DUNE.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

3D Realistic Modeling of the Interaction of Quiet-Sun Magnetic Fields with the Chromosphere

High-resolution observations and 3D simulations suggest that a local dynamo operates near the surface and produces ubiquitous small-scale magnetic elements, thus contributing to the magnetic carpet in the photosphere and to the magnetic structure and dynamics of the solar atmosphere. It appears that the traditional mechanisms of chromospheric energy and mass transport by acoustic waves and shocks are likely to play a secondary role; instead, the primary drivers in the energetics and dynamics of the chromosphere and transition region are small-scale, previously unresolved, quiet-Sun magnetic fields. These fields appear as ubiquitous, rapidly changing (on the scale of a few seconds), tiny magnetic loops and magnetized vortex tubes. Questions then arise about their origin and dynamics in the chromosphere, their links to magnetic fields in the photosphere, and their role in the energy storage and exchange between subsurface layers and the chromosphere. In the talk we will present results of 3D radiative MHD simulations obtained with the StellarBox code and discuss the energetics and dynamical interlinks between the subphotospheric layers and low chromosphere, their effects on the structure of the chromosphere, and signatures of the fine-scale magnetic features in high-resolution spectro-polarimetric observations.

Quie-Sun↗

A Conterminous USA-Scale Map of Relative Tidal Marsh Elevation

Abstract Tidal wetlands provide myriad ecosystem services across local to global scales. With their uncertain vulnerability or resilience to rising sea levels, there is a need for mapping flooding drivers and vulnerability proxies for these ecosystems at a national scale. However, tidal wetlands in the conterminous USA are diverse with differing elevation gradients, and tidal amplitudes, making broad geographic comparisons difficult. To address this, a national-scale map of relative tidal elevation ( Z * MHW ), a physical metric that normalizes elevation to tidal amplitude at mean high water (MHW), was constructed for the first time at 30 × 30-m resolution spanning the conterminous USA. Contrary to two study hypotheses, watershed-level median Z * MHW and its variability generally increased from north to south as a function of tidal amplitude and relative sea-level rise. These trends were also observed in a reanalysis of ground elevation data from the Pacific Coast by Janousek et al. (Estuaries and Coasts 42 (1): 85–98, 2019). Supporting a third hypothesis, propagated uncertainty in Z * MHW increased from north to south as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) errors had an outsized effect under narrowing tidal amplitudes. The drivers of Z * MHW and its variability are difficult to determine because several potential causal variables are correlated with latitude, but future studies could investigate highest astronomical tide and diurnal high tide inequality as drivers of median Z * MHW and Z * MHW variability, respectively. Watersheds of the Gulf Coast often had propagated Z * MHW uncertainty greater than the tidal amplitude itself emphasizing the diminished practicality of applying Z * MHW as a flooding proxy to microtidal wetlands. Future studies could focus on validating and improving these physical map products and using them for synoptic modeling of tidal wetland carbon dynamics and sea-level rise vulnerability analyses.

Holmquist, James R. (ORCID:0000000325466766)↗

Assessing decadal variability of subseasonal forecasts of opportunity using explainable AI

Abstract Identifying predictable states of the climate system allows for enhanced prediction skill on the generally low-skill subseasonal timescale via forecasts with higher confidence and accuracy, known as forecasts of opportunity. This study takes a neural network approach to explore decadal variability of subseasonal predictability, particularly during forecasts of opportunity. Specifically, this work quantifies subseasonal prediction skill provided by the tropics within the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble and assesses how this skill evolves on decadal timescales. Utilizing the networks’ confidence and explainable artificial intelligence, physically meaningful sources of predictability associated with periods of enhanced skill are identified. Using these networks, we find that tropically-driven subseasonal predictability varies on decadal timescales during forecasts of opportunity. Further, we investigate the drivers of the low frequency modulation of the tropical-extratropical teleconnection and discuss the implications. Analysis is extended to ECMWF Reanalysis v5 data, revealing that the relationships learned within the CESM2-Large Ensemble holds in modern reanalysis data. These results indicate that the neural networks are capable of identifying predictable decadal states of the climate system within CESM2 that are useful for making confident, accurate subseasonal precipitation predictions in the real world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) (Field Campaign Report)

The Arctic is rapidly changing, and these changes have substantial societal relevance. First, arctic change is a leading sign of global change, as the warming observed in the Arctic is 2-3 times faster than observed across the rest of the globe. This so-called arctic amplification is due to numerous feedbacks, including those linked to the declining sea ice. Broad arctic changes are also hypothesized to be related to shifts in large-scale circulation patterns that may have implications for mid-latitude weather and ocean circulation. Arctic change is further affecting the oceans through acidification that threatens food supplies. Declining sea ice also opens the Arctic for new resource development, shipping routes, tourism, and other commercial activities. Lastly, the changing Arctic is a hotbed for geopolitical challenges as nations vie for influence and control of this resource-rich and newly accessible region. Clearly the Arctic and its changes are playing a huge role in our Earth both from a geophysical and socio-political standpoint. To navigate, manage, and respond to the challenges associated with arctic change requires a vastly improved understanding of the coupled arctic system, and the drivers and implications of these changes. It is essential to better understand the physical basis for why the arctic sea ice is declining, the associated feedbacks that work to amplify or modulate this decline, and the myriad ways that the Earth system is responding. As a result of these changes and uncertainties, there are increasing societal needs for improved model predictive skill in the Arctic, to address pressing gaps in global climate prediction, to advance forecast skills for regional and hemispheric weather and sea ice, and to ensure robust ecosystem models that realistically link physical and biological systems. To fulfill these core needs requires new, sophisticated, and cross-cutting observations within the rapidly changing arctic ice pack.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗