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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Validation of the Archived CERES Surface and Atmosphere Radiation Budget (SARB) at SGP

The CERES Surface and Atmosphere Radiation Budget (SARB) product (Charlock et al, 2002) includes the vertical profile of broadband SW, broadband LW, and 8-12 micron window (WN) fluxes; upwelling and downwelling at TOA, 70 hPa, 200 hPa, 500 hPa, and the surface; and for all-sky and clear-sky conditions. We test the archived CERES TRMM record of SARB for January-August 1998 and focus on discrepancies with ground-based measurements at SGP. The CERES SARB is generated by a highly modified Fu-Liou radiative transfer code (Fu and Liou, 1993). The most critical inputs for this application are cloud optical properties (fractional area, optical depth, particle size and phase, height of top, and estimate of geometrical thickness Minnis et al., 2002) from the narrowband VIRS imager. Numerous VIRS pixels (approx. 2km resolution at nadir) are matched to each of the large (approx. 20km) CERES broadband footprints (Wielicki et al, 1996). Other inputs include temperature and humidity from ECMWF (Rabier et al, 1998) , NCEP ozone profiles from SBUV and TOVS (Yang et al, 2001), aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from the Model for Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH) aerosol assimilation (Collins et al., 2001) or alternately from the VIRS imager (Ignatov and Stowe, 2000). VIRS AOT is available for clear and partly cloudy ocean footprints during daylight; and only when viewing geometry renders a contribution from sunglint as unlikely. For other footprints, AOT is taken from MATCH. AOT is apportioned into fractions of dust (Tegan and Lacis, 1996), sea salt, sulfate, dust, soluble organic, insoluble organic, and soot (Hess et al., 1996) using the 6-hourly MATCH output. Tuned fluxes are retrieved by adjusting inputs to nudge computed TOA fluxes toward CERES observations (Rose et al, 1997). In clear conditions, the fields of humidity, surface skin temperature, surface albedo and AOT are adjusted to produce a closer match of computed and observed fluxes at TOA. When CERES footprints have clouds, the cloud optical thickness, fractional area within the footprint, and temperature of cloud top are adjusted by the tuning algorithm. Both tuned and untuned fluxes are archived, as are the respective adjustments to any parameters at the surface or within the atmosphere.

Charlock, Thomas P.↗
DOE OSTI2020

COVID-19 biomarkers based on respiratory microbiome content

COVID-19 patient care management would greatly benefit from new tools that enable accurate assessment of disease severity and stage, potentially enabling a personalized medicine approach. Detection of the SARS-CoV-2 virus itself, or even quantitation of viral loads, is not sufficient for accurate assessment of disease state beyond diagnosis of infection [eg, doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa344]. Levels of usual suspect protein biomarkers associated with host response to infection [eg, C-reactive protein (CRP); cytokines like IL-6, TNF-alpha, and IL-10; complement proteins like C3a and C5a], and of individual blood cell types (eg, leukocytes, lymphocytes, and subsets thereof), show limited correlation with disease severity and stage, with high patient-to-patient and study-to-study variability [eg, doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa248]. High-dimensional panels of biomarkers should have greater predictive power and resilience to unavoidable sources of variability; however, their assembly from proteins and cell types is extremely difficult, due to technical limitations in analyte measurement, especially with regard to starting material requirements and detection sensitivity. Host response profiling through Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) of gene expression patterns (ie, RNA-Seq) is a promising approach, but at the time of this project there were only two publicly available datasets of relevance [doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa203, doi:10.1080/22221751.2020.1747363], and close inspection of them revealed that each had at least one major flaw that severely undermined its value in supporting robust analysis of host response to SARS-CoV- 2 infection. However, the first of these studies [doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa203] fortuitously collected NGS data not only from host cells, but also from bacteria present in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) recovered from COVID-19 patients; and because the respiratory microbiome (in terms of bacterial species content) is far less complex than the human transcriptome, the NGS data collected were sufficient to provide coverage depth supporting robust analysis. Surprisingly, the authors of the study did not carry out a detailed analysis of these data and their potential for revealing important new information about COVID-19. Therefore, we carried out a meta-analysis of the dataset as a first step in evaluating the potential for profiling of respiratory microbiome dynamics as a means of accurately assessing COVID-19 disease state.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measuring qubit stability in a gate-based NISQ hardware processor

Some of the most problematic issues that limit the implementation of applications on Noisy Intermediate Scale Quantum (NISQ) machines are the adverse impacts of both incoherent and coherent errors. We conducted an in-depth study of coherent errors on a quantum hardware platform using a transverse field Ising model Hamiltonian as a sample user application. We report here on the results from these computations using several error mitigation protocols that profile these errors and provide an indication of the hardware qubit stability. Through a detailed set of measurements we identify inter-day and intra-day qubit calibration drift and the impacts of quantum circuit placement on groups of qubits in different physical locations on the processor. This paper also discusses how these measurements can provide a better understanding of these types of errors and how they may improve efforts to validate the accuracy of quantum computations.

Yeter-Aydeniz, Kübra↗
DOE OSTI2023

Near-Cloud Atmospheric Ingredients for Deep Convection Initiation

A lack of routine environmental observations located near deepening cumulus congestus clouds limits verification of important theorized and simulated updraft–environment interaction processes occurring during deep convection initiation (CI). We analyze radiosonde profiles collected during several hundred CI events near a mountain range in central Argentina during the CACTI field campaign. Statistical analyses illustrate environmental conditions supporting radar-observed CI outcomes that span a spectrum of convective cell depths, widths, and durations, as well as events lacking precipitating convection. Tested environmental factors include a large variety of sounding-derived measurements of CAPE, CIN, moisture, terrain-relative winds, vertical shear, and lifted parcel properties, with supplemental model reanalysis of background larger-scale vertical motion. CAPE and CIN metrics do not consistently differentiate CI success from failure. Only a few environmental factors contain consistent monotonic relationships among the spectrum of cloud depths achieved during CI: (i) the depth and strength of background ascent, and (ii) the component of low-level flow oriented parallel to the ridgeline. These metrics suggest that the ability of the surrounding flow to lift parcels to their LFC and terrain-modified flow are consistently relevant processes for CI. Low- to midlevel relative humidity strongly discriminated between CI and non-CI events, likely reflecting entrainment-driven dilution processes. However, we could not confidently conclude that relative humidity similarly discriminated robust from marginal CI events. Circumstantial evidence was found linking cell width, an important cloud property governing the probability of CI, to LCL height, boundary layer depth, depth and magnitude of the CIN layer, and ambient wind shear.

Storm environments↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thermocouple Testing in Support of the AGR-5/6/7 Experiment

This report documents thermocouple testing performed in IRC Lab C-15 over a period of seven years. This testing supported selection and characterization of the thermocouple set used in the AGR-5/6/7 experiment. The following summary was taken directly from the report. Temperature measurement is a challenging aspect of very high temperature irradiation experiments because commonly used high-temperature commercial thermocouples such as platinum-rhodium (Types S, R, and B) and tungsten-rhenium (Type C), suffer dramatic drift because of neutron-induced transmutation. As a result, these types of thermocouples, which are used routinely for industrial temperature measurements outside of reactors, are used only in very special circumstances for reactor experiments. Conversely, because of their low neutron cross-sections, Type N thermocouples are affected to only a limited extent by neutron irradiation. However, the use of these nickel-based thermocouples is limited when the temperature exceeds 1050°C due to drift arising from minor alloying elements migrating from the thermocouple's metal sheath to the thermoelements. This change in the composition of the thermo-elements results in significant decalibration of the signal. The issues described above were recognized during the early planning stages of the final AGR experiment (designated AGR-5/6/7), and a thermocouple furnace testing program was performed over a seven-year period (2014-2019, 2021) to first select and then characterize the best thermocouple set for the high temperature regions of the AGR-5/6/7 irradiation experiment. The calculated temperature range of the AGR-5/6/7 experiment was 600–1500°C. For temperatures below 1000°C standard Type N thermocouples were deemed adequate. The furnace testing campaign identified two thermocouple types suitable for measuring temperatures above 1000°C, a Mo/Nb thermocouple developed at INL called HTIR-TC, and a Type N thermocouple developed by Cambridge University (called herein Cambridge Type N), which featured a custom high nickel alloy sheath. One of the original goals of the furnace testing program was to identify a thermocouple capable of low drift operation near the peak temperature expected in AGR-5/6/7, i.e., about 1400°C. The HTIR-TC design appeared promising in this regard, however a manufacturing difficulty proved to be a barrier and instead the furnace testing focused on drift performance at 1250°C. The manufacturing difficulty was that the Nb sheaths of the HTIR-TCs experienced extreme embrittlement when heat treated at 1600°C or greater. Heat treatment is needed to stabilize the emf output of this TC type, and the higher the heat treatment temperature the higher the peak temperature of stable operation. Because of the sheath embrittlement the heat treatment temperature had to be lowered to 1450°C resulting in a stable operating temperature of about 1250°C. One of the successes of the furnace testing program was identification of a shortcoming in the heat treatment procedure that had been traditionally used in the production of HTIR-TCs. The shortcoming was that the entire heated length of the HTIR-TC sensor was not being heat treated, but rather only the part of the sensor expected to experience temperatures above 1000°C. The problem manifested itself when the thermocouples were removed from the heat treat furnace and placed in another furnace with a different geometry, their indicated temperatures would be widely scattered, but mostly in the negative direction. The solution was to heat treat the entire heated length of the sensor. Since the deepest immersion depth in the AGR-5/6/7 experiment was about 40 inches, a heat treatment length of 48 inches was used. After this change was implemented, thermocouples which were moved into a new environment with a different temperature profile (i.e., a different furnace), produced accurate temperature measurements. Although assembly of the AGR-5/6/7 experiment was completed in September of 2017 (and irradiation begun in 2018), furnace testing of thermocouples continued in 2018 and 2019. The main purpose of this testing was to establish very long-term drift characteristics of the HTIR and Cambridge Type N thermocouples installed in the experiment. Representative thermocouples from the same lots as those installed in the AGR-5/6/7 experiment were used. Additionally, thermocouples of different designs, (particularly variations on the HTIR-TC design) were "piggy-backed" on this testing program to provide insights for instrumenting future very high temperature irradiation experiments. This two-year testing program demonstrated that HTIR-TCs and Cambridge Type N TCs could operate at 1250°C for up to 10,000 hrs (and in some cases longer) while experiencing negative drifts on the order of 2-4°C/1000 hrs. This performance was considered acceptable given the extreme operating environment the sensors faced.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1975

A possible width-luminosity correlation of the Ca II K1 and Mg II k1 features

Existing high resolution stellar profiles of the Ca II and Mg II resonance lines suggest a possible width-luminosity correlation of the K1 minimum features. It is shown that such a correlation can be simply understood if the continuum optical depth of the stellar temperature minimum is relatively independent of surface gravity as suggested by three stars studied in detail.

Ayres, T. R.↗
NASA NTRS1983

SAM 2 measurements of the polar stratospheric aerosol. Volume 3: October 1979 to April 1980

The Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) II sensor is aboard the Earth-orbiting Nimbus 7 spacecraft providing extinction measurements of the Antarctic and Arctic stratospheric aerosol with a vertical resolution of 1 km. Representative examples and weekly averages of aerosol data and corresponding temperature profiles for the time and place of each SAM II measurement (Oct. 1979 through Apr. 1980) are presented. Contours of aerosol extinction as a function of altitude and longitude or time are plotted and weekly aerosol optical depths are calculated. Seasonal variations and variations in space (altitude and longitude) for both polar regions are easily seen. Typical values of aerosol extinction at the SAM II wavelength of 1.0 microns for this time period are 2 to 4 times .0001/km in the main stratospheric aerosol layer. Optical depths for the stratosphere are about 0.002 to 0.003, up slightly over normal background levels (due to the eruption of Sierra Negra, Nov. 1979). Polar stratospheric clouds at altitudes of about 22 km were observed during the Arctic winter. A ready-to-use format containing a representative sample of the third 6 months of data to be used in atmospheric and climatic studies is presented.

Mccormick, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS1985

SAM 2 measurements of the polar stratospheric aerosol, volume 5

The Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) 2 sensor is aboard the Earth-orbiting Nimbus 7 spacecraft providing extinction measurements of the Antarctic and Arctic stratospheric aerosol with a vertical resolution of 1 km. Representative examples and weekly averages of aerosol data and corresponding temperature profiles for the time and place of each SAM 2 mesurement (Oct. 1980 through Apr. 1981) are presented. Contours of aerosol extinction as a function of altitude and longitude or time are plotted and weekly aerosol optical depths are calculated. Seasonal variations and variations in space (altitude and longitude) for both polar regions are easily seen. Stratospheric optical depths are 0.002 to 0.003 for the Antarctic region and 0.005 to 0.006 at the beginning to 0.002 to 0.003 at the end of the time period for the Arctic region. The Northern Hemisphere values are quite large due mainly to the eruption of Mount St. Helens (46.2 deg N, 122.2 deg W) in May 1980. Polar stratospheric clouds at altitudes of about 20 km were observed during the Arctic winter. A ready-to-use format containing a representative sample of the fifth 6 months of data to be used in atmospheric and climatic studies is presented.

Mccormick, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS1987

An equivalent layer magnetization model for Australia based on Magsat data

An equivalent layer magnetization model for Australia and adjacent oceanic areas is presented. The model is obtained by linear inversion of Magsat anomaly data measured in the altitude range 325-550 km. The anomaly data set has been isolated from the raw data set by use of models of the core field and very long wavelength external fields, and is internally consistent. Certain major structural features of the Australian continent are geographically associated with magnetization anomalies. A first-order difference is seen between the Tasman Zone and the Precambrian cratonic areas: magnetization anomalies are much more subdued in the former, possibly reflecting a shallowing of the Curie isotherm within the crust. A profile of the vertical integral of magnetization is presented for a crustal section extending from the Gawler Block to the southeast coast. It is shown that the magnetization variations are probably due partly, but not wholly, to depth to Curie isotherm variations; gross magnetization variations among at least three distinct crustal units must be involved.

Mayhew, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Shortwave Radiative Fluxes, Solar-Beam Transmissions, and Aerosol Properties: TARFOX and ACE-2 Find More Absorption from Flux Radiometry than from Other Measurements

The Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX) and the Second Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-2) made simultaneous measurements of shortwave radiative fluxes, solar-beam transmissions, and the aerosols affecting those fluxes and transmissions. Besides the measured fluxes and transmissions, other obtained properties include aerosol scattering and absorption measured in situ at the surface and aloft; aerosol single scattering albedo retrieved from skylight radiances; and aerosol complex refractive index derived by combining profiles of backscatter, extinction, and size distribution. These measurements of North Atlantic boundary layer aerosols impacted by anthropogenic pollution revealed the following characteristic results: (1) Better agreement among different types of remote measurements of aerosols (e.g., optical depth, extinction, and backscattering from sunphotometers, satellites, and lidars) than between remote and in situ measurements; 2) More extinction derived from transmission measurements than from in situ measurements; (3) Larger aerosol absorption inferred from flux radiometry than from other measurements. When the measured relationships between downwelling flux and optical depth (or beam transmission) are used to derive best-fit single scattering albedos for the polluted boundary layer aerosol, both TARFOX and ACE-2 yield midvisible values of 0.90 +/- 0.04. The other techniques give larger single scattering albedos (i.e. less absorption) for the polluted boundary layer, with a typical result of 0.95 +/- 0.04. Although the flux-based results have the virtue of describing the column aerosol unperturbed by sampling, they are subject to questions about representativeness and other uncertainties (e.g., unknown gas absorption). Current uncertainties in aerosol single scattering albedo are large in terms of climate effects. They also have an important influence on aerosol optical depths retrieved from satellite radiances. More tests are needed of the consistency among different methods and of the effects of changing humidity on aerosol.

Russell, Philip B.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Aerosol and Cloud Interaction Observed From High Spectral Resolution Lidar Data

Recent studies utilizing satellite retrievals have shown a strong correlation between aerosol optical depth (AOD) and cloud cover. However, these retrievals from passive sensors are subject to many limitations, including cloud adjacency (or 3D) effects, possible cloud contamination, uncertainty in the AOD retrieval. Some of these limitations do not exist in High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) observations; for instance, HSRL observations are not a ected by cloud adjacency effects, are less prone to cloud contamination, and offer accurate aerosol property measurements (backscatter coefficient, extinction coefficient, lidar ratio, backscatter Angstrom exponent,and aerosol optical depth) at a neospatial resolution (less than 100 m) in the vicinity of clouds. Hence, the HSRL provides an important dataset for studying aerosol and cloud interaction. In this study, we statistically analyze aircraft-based HSRL profiles according to their distance from the nearest cloud, assuring that all profile comparisons are subject to the same large-scale meteorological conditions. Our results indicate that AODs from HSRL are about 17% higher in the proximity of clouds (approximately 100 m) than far away from clouds (4.5 km), which is much smaller than the reported cloud 3D effect on AOD retrievals. The backscatter and extinction coefficients also systematically increase in the vicinity of clouds, which can be explained by aerosol swelling in the high relative humidity (RH) environment and/or aerosol growth through in cloud processing (albeit not conclusively). On the other hand, we do not observe a systematic trend in lidar ratio; we hypothesize that this is caused by the opposite effects of aerosol swelling and aerosol in-cloud processing on the lidar ratio. Finally, the observed backscatter Angstrom exponent (BAE) does not show a consistent trend because of the complicated relationship between BAE and RH. We demonstrate that BAE should not be used as a surrogate for Angstrom exponent, especially at high RH.

Su, Wenying↗
NASA NTRS2016

Xeropreservation of Functionalized Lipid Biomarkers in Hyperarid Soils in the Atacama Desert

Our understanding of long-term organic matter preservation comes mostly from studies in aquatic systems. In contrast, taphonomic processes in extremely dry environments are relatively understudied and are poorly understood. We investigated the accumulation and preservation of lipid biomarkers in hyperarid soils in the Yungay region of the Atacama Desert. Lipids from seven soil horizons in a 2.5 meter vertical profile were extracted and analyzed using GC-MS ( Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry) and LC-MS (Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry). Diagnostic functionalized lipids and geolipids were detected and increased in abundance and diversity with depth. Deeper clay units contain fossil organic matter (radiocarbon dead) that has been protected from rainwater since the onset of hyperaridity. We show that these clay units contain lipids in an excellent state of structural preservation with functional groups and unsaturated bonds in carbon chains. This indicates that minimal degradation of lipids has occurred in these soils since the time of their deposition between more than 40,000 and up to 2 million years ago. The exceptional structural preservation of biomarkers is likely due to the long-term hyperaridity that has minimized microbial and enzymatic activity, a taphonomic process we term xeropreservation (i.e. preservation by drying). The degree of biomarker preservation allowed us to reconstruct major changes in ecology in the Yungay region that reflect a shift in hydrological regime from wet to dry since the early Quaternary. Our results suggest that hyperarid environments, which comprise 7.5 percent of the continental landmass, could represent a rich and relatively unexplored source of paleobiological information on Earth.

Xeropreservation↗
NASA NTRS1982

Limits on the lunar temperature profile

Limits on the selenotherm are estimated using (1) a preferred set of bounds on the lunar electrical conductivity profile; (2) published laboratory conductivity vs. temperature data for an olivine and several aluminous orthopyroxenes; and (3) estimates for the Al2O3 content of the deep interior suggested by bulk composition models. The inferred limits are narrowest in the depth range 450 to 1350 km and are in accord with independent geophysical constraints. Thermal history models which yield present-day selenotherms that are in best agreement with these limits are those which permit subsolidus convection at depths greater than 800 km in the moon.

Hood, L. L.↗
NASA NTRS1986

SAM 2 measurements of the polar stratospheric aerosol, volume 2

The Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) 2 sensor aboard Nimbus 7 is providing extinction measurements of Antarctic and Arctic stratospheric aerosols with a vertical resolution of 1 km. Representative examples and weekly averages including corresponding temperature profiles provided by NOAA for the time and place of each SAM 2 measurement (Oct. 1981 - Apr. 1982) are presented. Contours of aerosol extinction as a function of altitude and longitude or time are plotted, and aerosol optical depths are calculated for each week. Typical values of aerosol extinction at 1.0 micron in the main lower stratospheric aerosol layer for this time period are 2 to 4 times 10 to the -4 power/km. for the Antarctic region and 0.5 to 1 times 10 to the -3 power/km. for the Arctic region. Stratospheric optical depths are about 0.001 to 0.004 for the Antarctic region and 0.003 to 0.004 at the beginning to about 0.006 at the end of the time period for the Arctic region. Polar stratospheric clouds (PSC's) were observed during the Arctic winter, as expected. This report provides, in a ready-to-use format, a representative sample of the seventh semester of data to be used in atmospheric and climatic studies.

Mccormick, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS1986

SAM 2 measurements of the polar stratospheric aerosol, volume 8

The Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) 2 sensor aboard Nimbus 7 is providing extinction measurements of Antarctic and Arctic stratospheric aerosols with a vertical resolution of 1 km. Representative examples and weekly averages including corresponding temperature profiles provided by NOAA for the time and place of each SAM 2 measurement (Apr. 1982 - Oct. 1982) are presented. Contours of aerosol extinction as a function of altitude and longitude or time are plotted, and aerosol optical depths are calculated for each week. Typical values of aerosol extinction at 1.0 microns in the main stratospheric aerosol layer are approximately 4 to 6 times .0001/km at the beginning to 1 to 2 times .001/km at the end of the time period for the Antarctic region and approximately 1 to 3 times .001/km for the Arctic region throughout the time period. Stratospheric optical depths are about 0.002 to 0.009 for the Antarctic region and about 0.007 at the beginning to 0.024 at the end of the time period for the Arctic region. Polar stratospheric clouds were observed during the Antarctic winter, as expected. This report provides, in a ready-to-use format, a representative sample of the eighth 6 months of data to be used in atmospheric and climatic studies.

Mccormick, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Investigation of Overlap Correction Techniques for Application in the Micro-Pulse Lidar Network (MPLNET)

The Micro-Pulse Lidar NETwork (MPLNET) is comprised of micro-pulse lidars (MPL) stationed around the globe to provide measurements of aerosol and cloud vertical distribution on a continuous basis. MPLNET sites are co-located with sunphotometers in the AErosol Robotic NETwork (AERONET) to provide joint measurements of aerosol optical depth, size, and other inherent optical properties. The IPCC 2001 report discusses . the importance of obtaining routine measurements of aerosol vertical structure, especially for absorbing aerosols. MPLNET provides exactly this sort of measurement, including calculation of aerosol extinction profiles, in a near real-time basis for all sites in the network. In order to obtain aerosol profiles, near range signal returns (0-6 km) must be accurately measured by the MPL. This measurement is complicated by the instrument s overlap range: Le., the minimum distance at which returning signals are completely in the instrument s field-of-view (FOV). Typical MPL overlap distances are large, between 5 - 6 km, due to the narrow FOV of the MPL receiver. A function describing the MPL overlap must be determined and used to correct signals in this range. Currently, overlap functions for MPLNET are determined using horizontal MPL measurements along a path with 10-1 5 km clear line-of-sight and a homogenous atmosphere. These conditions limit the location and ease in which successful overlaps can be obtained. Furthermore, the current MPLNET process of correcting for overlap increases the uncertainty and bias error for the near range signals and the resulting aerosol extinction profiles. To address these issues, an alternative overlap correction method using a small-diameter, wide FOV receiver is being considered for potential use in MPLNET. The wide FOV receiver has a much shorter overlap distance and will be used to calculate the overlap function of the MPL receiver. This approach has a significant benefit in that overlap corrections could be obtained without the need for horizontal measurements. A review of both overlap methods is presented, including a discussion of the impact on reducing the uncertainty and bias error in MPLNET aerosol profiles.

Berkoff, Timothy A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Forecasting the Northern African Dust Outbreak Towards Europe in April 2011: A Model Intercomparison

In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 hours using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

dust storms↗