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Accelerating scientific discoveries through data-driven innovations

Developing artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) methods that can accelerate scientific discoveries and advance science has become one of the important research directions for the AI/ML research community. It has been gaining increasing attention from researchers in diverse scientific areas, including biomedical science, materials science, climate science, physics, chemistry, and many others. Data-driven AI/ML innovations to enable reliable predictions and optimal decision making for scientific discoveries face several critical challenges, among which are high system complexity, large search space, incomplete knowledge, and small data, all of which demand novel strategies to effectively address them. Meeting these challenges and thereby accelerating scientific discoveries and industrial innovations, calls for research that can take full advantage of the latest advances in AI/ML to integrate data-driven techniques with scientific knowledge and is able to execute them in modern high-performance computing (HPC) environments at scale. This Patterns special collection "Accelerating scientific discoveries through data-driven innovations" features articles that showcase the promising roles of AI/ML and data-driven modeling in accelerating scientific discoveries and may inspire the next wave of data-driven innovations in various scientific domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Characterizing Families of Spectral Similarity Scores and Their Use Cases for Gas Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry Small Molecule Identification

Metabolomics provides a unique snapshot into the world of small molecules and the complex biological processes that govern the human, animal, plant, and environmental ecosystems encapsulated by the One Health modeling framework. However, this “molecular snapshot” is only as informative as the number of metabolites confidently identified within it. The spectral similarity (SS) score is traditionally used to identify compound(s) in mass spectrometry approaches to metabolomics, where spectra are matched to reference libraries of candidate spectra. Unfortunately, there is little consensus on which of the dozens of available SS metrics should be used. This lack of standard SS score creates analytic uncertainty and potentially leads to issues in reproducibility, especially as these data are integrated across other domains. In this work, we use metabolomic spectral similarity as a case study to showcase the challenges in consistency within just one piece of the One Health framework that must be addressed to enable data science approaches for One Health problems. Here, using a large cohort of datasets comprising both standard and complex datasets with expert-verified truth annotations, we evaluated the effectiveness of 66 similarity metrics to delineate between correct matches (true positives) and incorrect matches (true negatives). We additionally characterize the families of these metrics to make informed recommendations for their use. Our results indicate that specific families of metrics (the Inner Product, Correlative, and Intersection families of scores) tend to perform better than others, with no single similarity metric performing optimally for all queried spectra. This work and its findings provide an empirically-based resource for researchers to use in their selection of similarity metrics for GC-MS identification, increasing scientific reproducibility through taking steps towards standardizing identification workflows.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Towards a Decision Support System for Space Flight Operations

The Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has put in place a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) technological framework for the development and execution of the Flight Production Process (FPP). This framework has provided much added value and return on investment to date. This paper describes a vision for a model based Decision Support System (DSS) for the development and execution of the FPP and its design and development process. The envisioned system extends the existing MBSE methodology and technological framework which is currently in use. The MBSE technological framework currently in place enables the systematic collection and integration of data required for building an FPP model for a diverse set of missions. This framework includes the technology, people and processes required for rapid development of architectural artifacts. It is used to build a feasible FPP model for the first flight of spacecraft and for recurrent flights throughout the life of the program. This model greatly enhances our ability to effectively engage with a new customer. It provides a preliminary work breakdown structure, data flow information and a master schedule based on its existing knowledge base. These artifacts are then refined and iterated upon with the customer for the development of a robust end-to-end, high-level integrated master schedule and its associated dependencies. The vision is to enhance this framework to enable its application for uncertainty management, decision support and optimization of the design and execution of the FPP by the program. Furthermore, this enhanced framework will enable the agile response and redesign of the FPP based on observed system behavior. The discrepancy of the anticipated system behavior and the observed behavior may be due to the processing of tasks internally, or due to external factors such as changes in program requirements or conditions associated with other organizations that are outside of MOD. The paper provides a roadmap for the three increments of this vision. These increments include (1) hardware and software system components and interfaces with the NASA ground system, (2) uncertainty management and (3) re-planning and automated execution. Each of these increments provide value independently; but some may also enable building of a subsequent increment.

Meshkat, Leila↗

Towards a decision support system for space flight operations

The Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has put in place a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) technological framework for the development and execution of the Flight Production Process (FPP). This framework has provided much added value and return on investment to date. This paper describes a vision for a model based Decision Support System (DSS) for the development and execution of the FPP and its design and development process. The envisioned system extends the existing MBSE methodology and technological framework which is currently in use. The MBSE technological framework currently in place enables the systematic collection and integration of data required for building an FPP model for a diverse set of missions. This framework includes the technology, people and processes required for rapid development of architectural artifacts. It is used to build a feasible FPP model for the first flight of spacecraft and for recurrent flights throughout the life of the program. This model greatly enhances our ability to effectively engage with a new customer. It provides a preliminary work breakdown structure, data flow information and a master schedule based on its existing knowledge base. These artifacts are then refined and iterated upon with the customer for the development of a robust end-to-end, high-level integrated master schedule and its associated dependencies. The vision is to enhance this framework to enable its application for uncertainty management, decision support and optimization of the design and execution of the FPP by the program. Furthermore, this enhanced framework will enable the agile response and redesign of the FPP based on observed system behavior. The differences between the anticipated system behavior and the observed behavior may be due to the processing of tasks internally, or due to external factors such as changes in program requirements or conditions associated with other organizations that are outside of MOD. The paper provides a roadmap for the four increments of this vision. These increments include (1) the existing capabilities (2) hardware and software system components and interfaces with the NASA ground system, (3) uncertainty management and (4) re-planning and automated execution. Each of these increments provides value independently; but some may also enable building of a subsequent increment.

Ruszkowski, James↗

Windward fraction of the total mass or heat transport for flow past a circular cylinder

The windward fraction of the total mass or heat transport for flow past a cylindrical aerodynamic object was estimated using the available experimental data for the angular distribution of the Nusselt transfer coefficient, Nu(theta, Re). The Re dependence of the windward surface fraction was calculated for the values of Re between 2 and 400,000. The results obtained from polar integrations of data from eight sources indicate that, for Reynolds numbers up to about 2000, more than 70 percent of the total transfer occurs on the windward surface. For the Re values above 100,000, the windward percentage is less than 50 percent.

Gokoglu, S.↗

Editorial: Achieving Water-Energy-Food Nexus Sustainability: A Science and Data Need or a Need for Integrated Public Policy?

The benefits of addressing the water, energy, and food sectors in an integrated manner is gaining significant recognition. An integrated approach can provide improved resource use efficiencies, more coherent environmental policies, and an overall strategy for achieving sustainability in the three sectors, as outlined in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 2 (Food), 6 (Water), and 7 (Energy). Societies are concerned with ensuring food security, avoiding wars over water, and creating opportunity by ensuring access to energy. To be effective, however, this approach needs to be adopted at all levels of societies including government, private and civil society and reinforced by management and planning methods. This special issue identifies different approaches that are either being conceptualized or tested to support the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus approach. The articles contribute to answering the question, “Is achieving Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus Sustainability a science and data need or an integrated public policy need?” In either case, both natural and social sciences will need to combine to support science issues or integrated policy issues. The papers explore the ways in which science, data, and policy development could help to define integrative principles and policies for the three sectors. This approach could expand beyond the water, energy, and food sectors to include health, environment, trade, commerce, and international assistance thereby providing broad support to the SDGs. Moreover, this issue demonstrates that data combined with new technologies (tools and models) can support better decision-making when adopted by governments and the sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrated planning and scheduling for Earth science data processing

Several current NASA programs such as the EOSDIS Core System (ECS) have data processing and data management requirements that call for an integrated planning and scheduling capability. In this paper, we describe the experience of applying advanced scheduling technology operationally, in terms of what was accomplished, lessons learned, and what remains to be done in order to achieve similar successes in ECS and other programs. We discuss the importance and benefits of advanced scheduling tools, and our progress toward realizing them, through examples and illustrations based on ECS requirements. The first part of the paper focuses on the Data Archive and Distribution (DADS) V0 Scheduler. We then discuss system integration issues ranging from communication with the scheduler to the monitoring of system events and re-scheduling in response to them. The challenge of adapting the scheduler to domain-specific features and scheduling policies is also considered. Extrapolation to the ECS domain raises issues of integrating scheduling with a product-generation planner (such as PlaSTiC), and implementing conditional planning in an operational system. We conclude by briefly noting ongoing technology development and deployment projects being undertaken by HTC and the ISTB.

Boddy, Mark↗

Interactive Metadata Integration with Brick

Many different digital representations of a building are produced over the course of its lifecycle. While these representations individually contain metadata required to support different stages of the building's lifecycle, they are largely not interoperable due to differences in structure, syntax and semantics. This impedes the development and deployment of data-driven applications providing fault detection and diagnosis, virtual metering or optimal control. [4] introduces a new platform for the continuous curation of a unified, Brick [1]-based metadata model that can be maintained throughout the building lifecycle. In this demonstration, we present a live proof-of-concept implementation of the platform with support for several metadata representations in the context of a simulated building lifecycle.

Fierro, Gabe↗

Case Study: Field Evaluation of a Low-Cost Circuit-Level Electrical Submetering System

Circuit-level metering technologies provide the ability to monitor individual circuits within an electrical panel in a building, providing detailed power and energy consumption data at a much more granular level than was previously achievable in a cost-effective manner. While the fundamental hardware components of circuit-level—split-core current transformers (CTs) and power monitoring meters—have existed for some time, the new offerings in the market have tightly integrated these components, lower costs, and have streamlined data organization, transport, and access via software solutions accessible through web and application programming interfaces (API). NREL evaluated Meazon’s single-circuit metering system. The evaluation of the equipment under test (EUT) focused on three aspects: (1) accuracy of the data provided by the system, (2) ease of installation of this technology and ease of data integration into existing U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) analytics platforms, and (3) total cost of ownership and cost-effectiveness of the technology. The metering technology was tested in a field deployment where it was installed in low and high-voltage commercial electrical panels in the César E. Chávez Memorial Building in Denver, Colorado. The goals were to assess the metering accuracy, the ease of installation and data retrieval, and the total cost of ownership and cost-effectiveness. This technology proved easy to install by a certified electrician who completed the install of 6 meters in 2 separate panels (120/208 V and 277/480 V) and 2 circuit disconnects (along with associated commissioning) at the César E. Chávez Memorial Building in less than one day. The technology was installed in high- and low-voltage panels and with limited space in the electrical room, demonstrating the applicability of this technology to almost all commercial buildings in the GSA portfolio. Primary considerations for this technology include appropriate sizing of CTs for each circuit, selection of loads/circuits/panels that are of high value for detailed submetering (e.g., tailored for high-load devices), and how GSA would like to integrate these data with its existing energy management infrastructure. Through the field evaluation, we demonstrated data integration from the vendor system into the primary software component on the GSA enterprise-level energy management and information system, GSA Link. Data from the circuit-level metering were integrated into this platform and used to perform FDD. This demonstrated the ability of the EUT to augment existing energy management and information systems in buildings where GSA Link is deployed and provides a pathway for delivering FDD at other buildings throughout the portfolio.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Physics-informed machine learning

Despite great progress in simulating multiphysics problems using the numerical discretization of partial differential equations (PDEs), one still cannot seamlessly incorporate noisy data into existing algorithms, mesh generation remains complex, and high-dimensional problems governed by parameterized PDEs cannot be tackled. Moreover, solving inverse problems with hidden physics is often prohibitively expensive and requires different formulations and elaborate computer codes. Machine learning has emerged as a promising alternative, but training deep neural networks requires big data, not always available for scientific problems. Instead, such networks can be trained from additional information obtained by enforcing the physical laws (for example, at random points in the continuous space-time domain). Such physics-informed learning integrates (noisy) data and mathematical models, and implements them through neural networks or other kernel-based regression networks. Moreover, it may be possible to design specialized network architectures that automatically satisfy some of the physical invariants for better accuracy, faster training and improved generalization. Furthermore, we review some of the prevailing trends in embedding physics into machine learning, present some of the current capabilities and limitations and discuss diverse applications of physics-informed learning both for forward and inverse problems, including discovering hidden physics and tackling high-dimensional problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Understanding and Improving Energy Efficiency of Regional Mobility Systems Leveraging System-Level Data

Increased congestion required urban Americans to travel 6.8 billion hours more and purchase 3.1 billion gallons of fuel for a congestion cost of $\$$153 billion, according to the 2019 Urban Mobility Report. How to effectively manage the regional mobility system and improve the energy efficiency presents a big challenge to public agencies. Recent years have witnessed massive multi-jurisdictional multi-modal system-level data from various sources, which provides an unprecedented opportunity to improve the mobility system and its energy efficiency. However, implications of system-level data for mobility and energy efficiency are unclear. Those system-level data sets are siloed, spatially and temporally sparse, biased, not unified, and lacking of insights for system management. Consequently, there is a real need to acquire, fuse, mine and learn from multi-source system-level data to prepare public agencies to deal more effectively with large-scale energy efficiency modeling, management and planning. This project proposes to intensively review inexpensive, replicable and openly-accessible data from multi-modal systems, develop a data-driven system-level modeling framework enabled and validated by data, identify the energy inefficiencies of mobility systems from infrastructure, vehicles, passenger systems, and quantify the benefits of system-level strategies to improve mobility/energy efficiency. In addition, this research develops models to effectively estimate energy consumption and emissions from various types of vehicles on the roadway networks, with high granularity and high fidelity. Traditional models often heavily rely on aggregated infrastructure or vehicle/passenger data, for example, the census survey, land-use, and traffic counts of one or several classes, which may lead to research gaps considering the emerging vehicle technologies. Those models do not contain individual vehicular information. We propose an integrated data-driven method that combines multiple network modeling components, featuring the utilization of state-wide vehicle registration data. The additional vehicle registration data improve the model performance, and produce high-resolution vehicle-specific estimates of emissions and network performance metrics. Two case studies on the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia regional network show that the proposed method can efficiently and effectively estimate the emissions of a large-scale network, and provide valuable information for evaluating common management strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The design and implementation of EPL: An event pattern language for active databases

The growing demand for intelligent information systems requires closer coupling of rule-based reasoning engines, such as CLIPS, with advanced data base management systems (DBMS). For instance, several commercial DBMS now support the notion of triggers that monitor events and transactions occurring in the database and fire induced actions, which perform a variety of critical functions, including safeguarding the integrity of data, monitoring access, and recording volatile information needed by administrators, analysts, and expert systems to perform assorted tasks; examples of these tasks include security enforcement, market studies, knowledge discovery, and link analysis. At UCLA, we designed and implemented the event pattern language (EPL) which is capable of detecting and acting upon complex patterns of events which are temporally related to each other. For instance, a plant manager should be notified when a certain pattern of overheating repeats itself over time in a chemical process; likewise, proper notification is required when a suspicious sequence of bank transactions is executed within a certain time limit. The EPL prototype is built in CLIPS to operate on top of Sybase, a commercial relational DBMS, where actions can be triggered by events such as simple database updates, insertions, and deletions. The rule-based syntax of EPL allows the sequences of goals in rules to be interpreted as sequences of temporal events; each goal can correspond to either (1) a simple event, or (2) a (possibly negated) event/condition predicate, or (3) a complex event defined as the disjunction and repetition of other events. Various extensions have been added to CLIPS in order to tailor the interface with Sybase and its open client/server architecture.

Giuffrida, G.↗

The IsoGenie database: an interdisciplinary data management solution for ecosystems biology and environmental research

Modern microbial and ecosystem sciences require diverse interdisciplinary teams that are often challenged in “speaking” to one another due to different languages and data product types. Here we introduce the IsoGenie Database, a de novo developed data management and exploration platform, as a solution to this challenge of accurately representing and integrating heterogenous environmental and microbial data across ecosystem scales. The IsoGenieDB is a public and private data infrastructure designed to store and query data generated by the IsoGenie Project, a ~10 year DOE-funded project focused on discovering ecosystem climate feedbacks in a thawing permafrost landscape. The IsoGenieDB provides (i) a platform for IsoGenie Project members to explore the project’s interdisciplinary datasets across scales through the inherent relationships among data entities, (ii) a framework to consolidate and harmonize the datasets needed by the team’s modelers, and (iii) a public venue that leverages the same spatially explicit, disciplinarily integrated data structure to share published datasets. The IsoGenieDB is also being expanded to cover the NASA-funded Archaea to Atmosphere (A2A) project, which scales the findings of IsoGenie to a broader suite of Arctic peatlands, via the umbrella A2A Database (A2A-DB). The IsoGenieDB’s expandability and flexible architecture allow it to serve as an example ecosystems database.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Bayesian Optimization Framework for Imperfect Data or Models

Conventional Bayesian optimization methods implicitly assume that the data and model being optimized are “perfect.” This assumption leads to inaccurate posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) when applied to “imperfect” data or models. The new Bayesian optimization framework presented in this report provides a way to parameterize the effect of imperfections usually encountered in a prior PDF of generalized data or a model on the posterior PDF. The effects of imperfections are parameterized by a set of constraints imposed on the posterior expectation values of deviations between the data and the model and on their covariance matrix elements. A particular set of values for these constraints conveys an evaluator’s best estimate of the effect of imperfections on the corresponding posterior expectation values. When a prior PDF of generalized data is assumed to be normal, an expression for a posterior PDF satisfying an arbitrary set of constraints is derived analytically for linear models. An analogous iterative algorithm is given for nonlinear models. The corresponding posterior PDF should be used to estimate any posterior expectation values in the presence of imperfections parameterized by that set of constraints. A posterior PDF of a conventional Bayesian optimization method is recovered analytically when all evaluator-specified constraints are set to zero (i.e., in the absence of any imperfections). The analytical expressions derived in this report for normal PDFs and linear models were verified numerically by a Metropolis–Hastings Monte Carlo method. The methods presented herein could be applied to any kind of data or models, including differential cross-section data or integral benchmark experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A technique for deriving column-integrated water content using VAS split-window data

An algorithm is examined that uses VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) 11- and 12-micron (split-window) data to derive column-integrated water content (IWC) at mesoscale resolution. The algorithm is physically based and derives its first-guess information from radiosonde data. The procedure is applied first to a test case data set and then to the 19 June 1986 study day from the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment (COHMEX). Ground truth data for verifying results from the technique include IWC from National Weather Service and COHMEX radiosondes, the Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS), and a special set of VAS soundings (12 channel) using an independent retrieval method. Results from the test case show reasonable accuracy with the rms errors as low as +/- 3.8 mm. On the 19 June case study day IWC analyses depict reasonable gradients and exhibit good spatial and temporal continuity. Furthermore, they provide insight into preferred regions for cumulus cloud and thunderstorm formation. On the average, a mean absolute retrieval error of 2.4 mm (an 8.1 percent error) and a rms error of +/- 2.9 mm are obtained on the case study day. These results compare favorably with those from existing VAS IWC techniques. Overall, the findings indicate that the technique has excellent potential to depict mesoscale moisture variations.

Guillory, Anthony R.↗

The sun as a star - 1982 June 14-August 13

During a 60-day period in the summer of 1982, a joint observing project between the High Altitude Observatory and the University of Hawaii was undertaken to collect a set of solar photospheric, chromospheric, and coronal data. From these data, the relationships between quantities recognized to be related to solar activity are specified. The amplitude of rotational modulation of the diagnostic parameters derived for the full disk was approximately equal to the modulation observed over an entire solar cycle. Those integrated solar data have been used as diagnostics of generalized stellar activity. A relationship between the Ca II line K flux and total inferred coronal mass of the sun existed during this observation period, and this fact leads to the hypothesis that ca II flux modulation in other stars may be used to infer stellar coronal conditions.

Fisher, R.↗

Using WorldView-2 Imagery to Track Flooding in Thailand in a Multi-Asset Sensorweb

For the flooding seasons of 2011-2012 multiple space assets were used in a "sensorweb" to track major flooding in Thailand. Worldview-2 multispectral data was used in this effort and provided extremely high spatial resolution (2m / pixel) multispectral (8 bands at 0.45-1.05 micrometer spectra) data from which mostly automated workflows derived surface water extent and volumetric water information for use by a range of NGO and national authorities. We first describe how Worldview-2 and its data was integrated into the overall flood tracking sensorweb. We next describe the use of Support Vector Machine learning techniques that were used to derive surface water extent classifiers. Then we describe the fusion of surface water extent and digital elevation map (DEM) data to derive volumetric water calculations. Finally we discuss key future work such as speeding up the workflows and automating the data registration process (the only portion of the workflow requiring human input).

surface water extent↗