Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,333 records · Page 74

Microstructural and Isotopic Constraints on WL Rim Formation

Coordinated microanalyses of Wark-Lovering (WL) rims are needed to best understand their origin and to decipher their subsequent evolution both in the nebular and parent body settings. Here we present the mineralogy, petrology, microstructures, O isotopic compositions, and Al-Mg systematics of a WL rim on a Type B CAI, ‘‘Big Guy”, from the reduced CV3 chondrite Vigarano [1]. Our SEM and TEM study reveals seven distinct mineral layers in the WL rim that include: (1) gehlenite with rare grossite, (2) hibonite, (3) spinel with minor hibonite and perovskite, (4) zoned melilite (Åk(sub ~0-10)), (5) anorthite, (6) zoned diopside grading outwards from Al,Ti-rich to Al,Tipoor, and (7) forsterite intergrown with diopside. We infer a two-stage history in which WL rim formation was initiated by flash melting and extensive evaporation of the original inclusion edge, followed by subsequent condensation under highly dynamic conditions. The outermost edge of the CAI mantle is mineralogically and texturally distinct compared to the underlying mantle that is composed of coarse, zoned melilite (Åk(sub ~10-60)) grains. The mantle edge contains finegrained gehlenite with hibonite and rare grossite that likely formed by rapid crystallization from a Ca,Al-rich melt produced during a flash vaporization event [2]. These gehlenite and hibonite layers are surrounded by successive layers of spinel, melilite, diopside, and forsterite, indicating their sequential gas-solid reactions onto hibonite. Anorthite occurs as a discontinuous layer that corrodes adjacent melilite and Al-diopside, and appears to have replaced them [3,4], probably even later than the forsterite layer formation. All the WL rim minerals analyzed using the JSC NanoSIMS 50L are 16O-rich (Δ17O ≈ −23‰), indicating their formation in an 16O-rich gas reservoir. Our data are in contrast with many CV CAIs that show heterogeneous Δ 17O values across their WL rims [5]. Our Al-Mg data obtained using the UCLA ims-1290 ion microprobe of the CAI interior and the WL rim define a well-correlated isochron with (26Al/27Al)(sub 0) = 4.94 × 10(exp −5), indicating their synchronous formation ≤5 × 10(exp 4) years after the canonical CAI value. In contrast, no 26Mg excesses are observed in the WL rim anorthite, which suggests its later formation or later isotopic resetting in an 16O-rich gas reservoir, after 26Al had decayed.

Han, J.↗

Performance of candidate SEPS solar cells as a function of low temperature and low intensity exposure and 1 MeV electron irradiation

The behavior of 144 high-performance shallow-junction silicon solar cells under conditions of low temperature and intensity was examined. The cells represented nine combinations of thickness, base resistivity, front surface texture, and rear surface treatment. At least 16 cells of each type were individually tested both as active elements under light levels between 0.04 and 1.0 solar constant and in the dark as passive rectifiers under external forward bias. One cell type was also irradiated with 1 MeV electrons up to 2.7 x 10 to the 15th e/sq cm. The inferior cells demonstrated high ohmic and/or non-ohmic shunting. No series resistance or Schottky barrier effects were observed. Fluences beyond 10 to the 13th e/sq cm lowered cell current, probably by increasing volume recombination.

Whitaker, A. F.↗

Cell Maintenance Systems

Living human cells require attachment to a suitable surface and special culture conditions in order to grow. These requirements are modified and amplified when cells are taken into a weightless environment. Special handling and maintenance systems are required for routine laboratory procedures conducted in the Orbiter and in the Spacelab. Methods were developed to maintain cells in special incubators designed for the Orbiter middeck, however, electrophoresis and other experiments require cells to be harvested off of the culture substrate before they can be processed or used. The cell transport assembly (CTA) was flown on STS-8, and results show that improvements are required to maintain adequate numbers of cells in this device longer than 48 hours. The life sciences middeck centrifuge probably can be used, but modifications will be required to transfer cells from the CTA and keep the cells sterile. Automated systems such as the Skylab SO-15 flight hardware and crew operated systems are being evaluated for use on the Space Shuttle, Spacelab, and Space Station research modules.

Morrison, D. R.↗

Concentration transient analysis of antimony surface segregation during Si(100) molecular beam epitaxy

Antimony surface segregation during Si(100) molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) was investigated at temperatures T(sub s) = 515 - 800 C using concentration transient analysis (CTA). The dopant surface coverage Theta, bulk fraction gamma, and incorporation probability sigma during MBE were determined from secondary-ion mass spectrometry depth profiles of modulation-doped films. Programmed T(sub s) changes during growth were used to trap the surface-segregated dopant overlayer, producing concentration spikes whose integrated area corresponds to Theta. Thermal antimony doping by coevaporation was found to result in segregation strongly dependent on T(sub s) with Theta(sub Sb) values up to 0.9 monolayers (ML): in films doped with Sb(+) ions accelerated by 100 V, Theta(sub Sb) was less than or equal to 4 x 10(exp -3) ML. Surface segregation of coevaporated antimony was kinematically limited for the film growth conditions in these experiments.

Markert, L. C.↗

Radio-Optical Alignments in a Low Radio Luminosity Sample

We present an optically-based study of the alignment between the radio axes and the optical major axes of eight z approximately 0.7 radio galaxies in a 7C sample. The radio galaxies in this sample are approximately 20-times less radio luminous than 3C galaxies at the same redshift, and are significantly less radio-luminous than any other well-defined samples studied to date. Using Nordic Optical Telescope images taken in good seeing conditions at rest-frame wavelengths just longward of the 4000A break, we find a statistically significant alignment effect in the 7C sample. Furthermore, in two cases where the aligned components are well separated from the host we have been able to confirm spectroscopically that they are indeed at the same redshift as the radio galaxy. However, a quantitative analysis of the alignment in this sample and in a corresponding 3C sample from HST (Hubble Space Telescope) archival data indicates that the percentage of aligned flux may be lower and of smaller spatial scale in the 7C sample. Our study suggests that alignments on the 50-kpc scale are probably closely related to the radio luminosity, whereas those on the 15 kpc scale are not. We discuss these results in the context of popular models for the alignment effect.

Lacy, Mark↗

SafeMAP: Safe Multi-Agent Planning Framework Based on Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

This paper proposes a risk-aware framework for Safe Multi-Agent Planning (SafeMAP) that unifies disparate models for multi-agent systems in a Markovian process that allows for simultaneous system health monitoring, decision making under uncertainty, and multi-agent system collaboration. As operations beyond low earth orbit mature, there is an increased need for autonomous cyber-physical systems with onboard decision making capabilities. Multi-agent cyber-physical systems in particular offer the potential of increased efficiency, resiliency, and mission capabilities for future applications such as multi-rover terrain operations, distributed satellite operations, and management of smart lunar habitats. SafeMAP utilizes physics-based models of each agent and the relevant components, probability models of the environment and component operational states, and reward models for mission-specific objectives such as scientific task completion or resource consumption. The output of SafeMAP is a set of mission plans that satisfy the mission objective under specified risk/reward constraints. A readable interpretation of each of these generated mission plans is provided as an additional output. SafeMAP has been demonstrated on a simulated case study involving a four-rover system performing surface mapping operations and science tasks. Results of this paper demonstrate SafeMAP’s ability to generate explainable mission plans that satisfy the mission objective while minimizing risk under nominal and off-nominal conditions.

Mohammad Hejase↗

SafeMAP: Safe Multi-Agent Planning framework based on Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

This paper proposes a risk-aware framework for Safe Multi-Agent Planning (SafeMAP) that unifies disparate models for multi-agent systems in a Markovian process that allows for simultaneous system health monitoring, decision making under uncertainty, and multi-agent system collaboration. As operations beyond low earth orbit mature, there is an increased need for autonomous cyber-physical systems with onboard decision making capabilities. Multi-agent cyber-physical systems in particular offer the potential of increased efficiency, resiliency, and mission capabilities for future applications such as multi-rover terrain operations, distributed satellite operations, and management of smart lunar habitats. SafeMAP utilizes physics-based models of each agent and the relevant components, probability models of the environment and component operational states, and reward models for mission-specific objectives such as scientific task completion or resource consumption. The output of SafeMAP is a set of mission plans that satisfy the mission objective under specified risk/reward constraints. A readable interpretation of each of these generated mission plans is provided as an additional output. SafeMAP has been demonstrated on a simulated case study involving a four-rover system performing surface mapping operations and science tasks. Results of this paper demonstrate SafeMAP’s ability to generate explainable mission plans that satisfy the mission objective while minimizing risk under nominal and off-nominal conditions.

Mohammad Hejase↗

Deep Convective Cloud Calibration Sensitivity Studies in Support of Radiometrically Scaling GEO Imagers With VIIRS

The NASA CERES SYN1deg product provides the scientific community regional hourly TOA and surface broadband fluxes and clouds. For consistent geostationary (GEO) derived fluxes and clouds the GEO imagers are radiometrically scaled to the Aqua-MODIS calibration reference. The CERES project utilizes GEO and MODIS or VIIRS analogous channel coincident, collocated, and co-angled radiance pairs as the primary method to inter-calibrate the GEO imagers. Tropical deep convective clouds (DCC) are bright, near Lambertian, top of atmosphere pseudo invariant Earth targets that do not rely on coincident ray-matched radiance pairs to radiometrically scale sensors to a common calibration reference. The DCC invariant target (DCC-IT) methodology collectively analyzes all tropical DCC identified pixel radiances by way of probability density function (PDF) distributions. Perfectly inter-calibrated sensor pairs should reveal nearly identical PDF distributions given the same DCC identification criterion. The PDF median, mean, mode, and inflection point statistics were tested as a function of DCC identification criterion using SNPP-VIIRS and Himawari-8 AHI 0.65μm channel radiances during January 2019. It was found that the PDF inflection point provided inter-calibration factors within 0.25% that were nearly independent of DCC identification criterion. The PDF median provided inter-calibration factors within 0.25% for the coldest BT and most stringent homogeneity factors. The PDF mean and mode statistics were inadequate under any DCC conditions. It is critical for the DCC pixel radiances to be anisotropically corrected. The DCC-IT methodology will also be tested for other visible and SWIR bands.

DCC↗

Analysis of the Westland Data Set

The "Westland" set of empirical accelerometer helicopter data with seeded and labeled faults is analyzed with the aim of condition monitoring. The autoregressive (AR) coefficients from a simple linear model encapsulate a great deal of information in a relatively few measurements; and it has also been found that augmentation of these by harmonic and other parameters call improve classification significantly. Several techniques have been explored, among these restricted Coulomb energy (RCE) networks, learning vector quantization (LVQ), Gaussian mixture classifiers and decision trees. A problem with these approaches, and in common with many classification paradigms, is that augmentation of the feature dimension can degrade classification ability. Thus, we also introduce the Bayesian data reduction algorithm (BDRA), which imposes a Dirichlet prior oil training data and is thus able to quantify probability of error in all exact manner, such that features may be discarded or coarsened appropriately.

Wen, Fang↗

A Revised Approach to the ULDB Design

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Balloon Program has experienced problems in the scaling up of the proposed Ultra Long Duration Balloon. Full deployment of the balloon envelope has been the issue for the larger balloons. There are a number of factors that contribute to this phenomenon. Analytical treatments of the deployment issue are currently underway. It has also been acknowledged that the current fabrication approach using foreshortening is costly, labor intensive, and requires significant handling during production thereby increasing the chances of inducing damage to the envelope. Raven Industries has proposed a new design and fabrication approach that should increase the probability of balloon deployment, does not require foreshortening, will reduce the handling, production labor, and reduce the final balloon cost. This paper will present a description of the logic and approach used to develop this innovation. This development consists of a serial set of steps with decision points that build upon the results of the previous steps. The first steps include limited material development and testing. This will be followed by load testing of bi-axial reinforced cylinders to determine the effect of eliminating the foreshortening. This series of tests have the goal of measuring the strain in the material as it is bi-axially loaded in a condition that closely replicated the application in the full-scale balloon. Constant lobe radius pumpkin shaped test structures will be designed and analyzed. This matrix of model tests, in conjunction with the deployment analyses, will help develop a curve that should clearly present the deployment relationship for this kind of design. This will allow the "design space" for this type of balloon to be initially determined. The materials used, analyses, and ground testing results of both cylinders and small pumpkin structures will be presented. Following ground testing, a series of test flights, staged in increments of increasing suspended load and balloon volume, will be conducted. The first small scale test flight has been proposed for early Spring 2004. Results of this test flight of this new design and approach will presented. Two additional domestic test flights from Ft. Sumner, New Mexico, and Palestine, Texas, and one circumglobal test flight from Australia are planned as part of this development. Future plans for both ground testing and test flights will also be presented.

Smith, Michael↗

Finite Element Model Calibration Approach for Ares I-X

Ares I-X is a pathfinder vehicle concept under development by NASA to demonstrate a new class of launch vehicles. Although this vehicle is essentially a shell of what the Ares I vehicle will be, efforts are underway to model and calibrate the analytical models before its maiden flight. Work reported in this document will summarize the model calibration approach used including uncertainty quantification of vehicle responses and the use of nonconventional boundary conditions during component testing. Since finite element modeling is the primary modeling tool, the calibration process uses these models, often developed by different groups, to assess model deficiencies and to update parameters to reconcile test with predictions. Data for two major component tests and the flight vehicle are presented along with the calibration results. For calibration, sensitivity analysis is conducted using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). To reduce the computational burden associated with ANOVA calculations, response surface models are used in lieu of computationally intensive finite element solutions. From the sensitivity studies, parameter importance is assessed as a function of frequency. In addition, the work presents an approach to evaluate the probability that a parameter set exists to reconcile test with analysis. Comparisons of pre-test predictions of frequency response uncertainty bounds with measured data, results from the variance-based sensitivity analysis, and results from component test models with calibrated boundary stiffness models are all presented.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

Finite Element Model Calibration Approach for Area I-X

Ares I-X is a pathfinder vehicle concept under development by NASA to demonstrate a new class of launch vehicles. Although this vehicle is essentially a shell of what the Ares I vehicle will be, efforts are underway to model and calibrate the analytical models before its maiden flight. Work reported in this document will summarize the model calibration approach used including uncertainty quantification of vehicle responses and the use of non-conventional boundary conditions during component testing. Since finite element modeling is the primary modeling tool, the calibration process uses these models, often developed by different groups, to assess model deficiencies and to update parameters to reconcile test with predictions. Data for two major component tests and the flight vehicle are presented along with the calibration results. For calibration, sensitivity analysis is conducted using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). To reduce the computational burden associated with ANOVA calculations, response surface models are used in lieu of computationally intensive finite element solutions. From the sensitivity studies, parameter importance is assessed as a function of frequency. In addition, the work presents an approach to evaluate the probability that a parameter set exists to reconcile test with analysis. Comparisons of pretest predictions of frequency response uncertainty bounds with measured data, results from the variance-based sensitivity analysis, and results from component test models with calibrated boundary stiffness models are all presented.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

In Situ Detection of Strong Langmuir Turbulence Processes in Solar Type III Radio Bursts

The high time resolution observations obtained by the WAVES experiment of the STEREO spacecraft in solar type III radio bursts show that Langmuir waves often occur as intense localized wave packets. These wave packets are characterized by short durations of only a few ms and peak intensities, which well exceed the supersonic modulational instability (MI) thresholds. These timescales and peak intensities satisfy the criterion of the solitons collapsed to spatial scales of a few hundred Debye lengths. The spectra of these wave packets consist of primary spectral peaks corresponding to beam-resonant Langmuir waves, two or more sidebands corresponding to down-shifted and up-shifted daughter Langmuir waves, and low frequency enhancements below a few hundred Hz corresponding to daughter ion sound waves. The frequencies and wave numbers of these spectral components satisfy the resonance conditions of the modulational instability (MI). Moreover, the tricoherences, computed using trispectral analysis techniques show that these spectral components are coupled to each other with a high degree of coherency as expected of the MI type of four wave interactions. The high intensities, short scale lengths, sideband spectral structures and low frequency spectral enhancements and, high levels of tricoherences amongst the spectral components of these wave packets provide unambiguous evidence for the supersonic MI and related strong turbulence processes in type III radio bursts. The implication of these observations include: (1) the MI and related strong turbulence processes often occur in type III source regions, (2) the strong turbulence processes probably play very important roles in beam stabilization as well as conversion of Langmuir waves into escaping radiation at the fundamental and second harmonic of the electron plasma frequency, fpe, and (3) the Langmuir collapse probably follows the route of MI in type III radio bursts.

Langmuir↗

The effect of carbon on phosphate reduction

Several experiments were performed in order to evaluate the effect of carbon on phosphate reduction in synthetic systems. It was attempted to simulate in the experiments conditions occurring during lunar impact processes, but without shock pressure. Temperature, oxygen fugacity, and bulk chemistry were evaluated separately in order to determine the conditions which are suitable for carbon reduction. It appears on the basis of the results of the reported investigation that carbon can be an effective reducing agent during reheating events such as those encountered by lunar soils and breccias. Phosphate reduction may be viewed as a two-step process in which carbon is mobilized as CO during heating and preferentially dissolved in the metal phase. It then acts as a reducing agent on cooling. Gas phase transport and diffusion of carbon in metal are sufficiently rapid to allow uniform carbon distribution both within and between metal grains. The availability of metal from meteorites and carbon from the solar wind is probably sufficient to make reduction by carbon a significant process on the lunar surface.

Friel, J. J.↗

The energetics of the gradual phase

Reseachers compare results with those in the chapter by Moore et al. (1980), who reached five main conclusions about the gradual phase: (1) the typical density of the soft X-ray emitting plasma is between 10 to the 11th power and 10 to the 12th power cm-3 for compact flares and between 10 to the 10th power and 10 to the 11th power cm-3 for a large-area flare; (2) cooling is by conduction and radiation in roughly equal proportions; (3) continual heating is needed in the decay phase of two-ribbon flares; (4) continual heating is probably not needed in compact events; (5) most of the soft-X-ray-emitting plasma results from chromospheric evaporation. The goal was to reexamine these problems with the data from the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) and other supporting instruments as well as to take advantage of recent theoretical advances. SMM is capable of measuring coronal temperatures more accurately and with a better cadence than has been possible before. The SMM data set is also unique in that the complete transit of an active region was observed, with soft X-ray and UV images being taken every few minutes. Researcher's were therefore able to establish the pre-flare conditions of the region and see whether anything has changed as a result of the flare. The assumptions made in attempting to determine the required plasma parameters are described. The derived parameters for the five prime flares are presented, and the role of numerical simulations is discussed.

Strong, K. T.↗

Antarctic stratospheric chemistry of chlorine nitrate, hydrogen chloride, and ice - Release of active chlorine

The reaction rate between atmospheric hydrogen chloride (HCl) and chlorine nitrate (ClONO2) is greatly enhanced in the presence of ice particles; HCl dissolves readily into ice, and the collisional reaction probability for ClONO2 on the surface of ice with HCl in the mole fraction range from about 0.003 to 0.010 is in the range from about 0.05 to 0.1 for temperatures near 200 K. Chlorine is released into the gas phase on a time scale of at most a few milliseconds, whereas nitric acid (HNO3), the other product, remains in the condensed phase. This reaction could play an important role in explaining the observed depletion of ozone over Antarctica; it releases photolytically active chlorine from its most abundant reservoir species, and it promotes the formation of HNO3 and thus removes nitrogen dioxide from the gas phase. Hence it establishes the necessary conditions for the efficient catalytic destruction of ozone by halogenated free radicals.

Molina, Mario J.↗

Reinforcement Learning in a Nonstationary Environment: The El Farol Problem

This paper examines the performance of simple learning rules in a complex adaptive system based on a coordination problem modeled on the El Farol problem. The key features of the El Farol problem are that it typically involves a medium number of agents and that agents' pay-off functions have a discontinuous response to increased congestion. First we consider a single adaptive agent facing a stationary environment. We demonstrate that the simple learning rules proposed by Roth and Er'ev can be extremely sensitive to small changes in the initial conditions and that events early in a simulation can affect the performance of the rule over a relatively long time horizon. In contrast, a reinforcement learning rule based on standard practice in the computer science literature converges rapidly and robustly. The situation is reversed when multiple adaptive agents interact: the RE algorithms often converge rapidly to a stable average aggregate attendance despite the slow and erratic behavior of individual learners, while the CS based learners frequently over-attend in the early and intermediate terms. The symmetric mixed strategy equilibria is unstable: all three learning rules ultimately tend towards pure strategies or stabilize in the medium term at non-equilibrium probabilities of attendance. The brittleness of the algorithms in different contexts emphasize the importance of thorough and thoughtful examination of simulation-based results.

Bell, Ann Maria↗

An elementary analysis of the effect of sweep, Mach number, and lift coefficient on wing-structure weight

Results are presented from an elementary analysis of the effect of sweep angle on the idealized structural weight of swept wings, with cruise Mach number M and lift coefficient C sub L as parameters. The analysis indicates that sweep is unnecessary for cruise Mach numbers below about 0.80, whereas for the higher subsonic speeds, a well defined minimum-weight condition exists at a sweep angle in the neighborhood of 35 deg or 40 deg, depending on M and C sub L. The results further indicate that wing-structure weight increases sharply with Mach number in the high subsonic range, with Mach 0.85 wings weighing half again as much as Mach 0.75 wings. Weight is also shown to increase with cruise lift coefficient, but the effect is not strong for the usual range of design lift coefficients. Minimum wing-structure weight is found to occur at a ratio of thickness to normal chord of about 18 percent, but it is concluded that the thickness ratio for optimum wing design would probably lie in the range of 12 to 15 percent.

Kyser, A. C.↗