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At least 1,333 records · Page 74

Plan evaluation for heat resilience: complementary methods to comprehensively assess heat planning in Tempe and Tucson, Arizona

Abstract Escalating impacts from climate change and urban heat are increasing the urgency for communities to equitably plan for heat resilience. Cities in the desert Southwest are among the hottest and fastest warming in the U.S., placing them on the front lines of heat planning. Urban heat resilience requires an integrated planning approach that coordinates strategies across the network of plans that shape the built environment and risk patterns. To date, few studies have assessed cities’ progress on heat planning. This research is the first to combine two emerging plan evaluation approaches to examine how networks of plans shape urban heat resilience through case studies of Tempe and Tucson, Arizona. The first methodology, Plan Quality Evaluation for Heat Resilience, adapts existing plan quality assessment approaches to heat. We assess whether plans meet 56 criteria across seven principles of high-quality planning and the types of heat strategies included in the plans. The second methodology, the Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard™ (PIRS™) for Heat, focuses on plan policies that could influence urban heat hazards. We categorize policies by policy tool and heat mitigation strategy and score them based on their heat impact. Scored policies are then mapped to evaluate their spatial distribution and the net effect of the plan network. The resulting PIRS™ for Heat scorecard is compared with heat vulnerability indicators to assess policy alignment with risks. We find that both cities are proactively planning for heat resilience using similar plan and strategy types, however, there are clear and consistent opportunities for improvement. Combining these complementary plan evaluation methods provides a more comprehensive understanding of how plans address heat and a generalizable approach that communities everywhere could use to identify opportunities for improved heat resilience planning.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

The nitrogen gap in soil health concepts and fertility measurements

Soil nitrogen (N) often limits productivity in agroecosystems, prompting fertilizer applications that increase crop yields but can degrade the environment. Nitrogen's dual role in both productivity and environmental quality should center it in soil health frameworks. We use recent evidence to argue that N availability is an emergent property of the integrated soil biogeochemical system and is strongly influenced by plant traits and their interactions with microbes and minerals. Building upon this, we theorize that the sources of plant and microbial N shift across soil health gradients, from inorganic N dependence in ecologically simple systems with poor soil health to a highly networked supply of organic N in healthy soils; ergo, investments in soil health should increase ecological complexity and the pathways by which plants can access N, leading to more resilient nutrient supplies and yields in a variable climate. However, current N assessment methods derive from a historical emphasis on inorganic N pool sizes and are unable to capture the shifting drivers of N availability across soil health gradients. We highlight the need to better understand the plant-microbial-mineral interactions that regulate bioavailable N as a first step to improving our ability to measure it. We conclude it will be necessary to harness agroecosystem complexity, account for plant and microbial drivers, and carefully integrate external N inputs into soils' internal N network to expand the routes by which N from organic pools can be made bioavailable. Finally, by emphasizing N in soil health concepts, we argue that researchers can accelerate advances in N use efficiency and resiliency.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Transforming the Future of Marine Aquaculture: A Circular Economy Approach

By mid-century, society will need to significantly intensify the output of its food production system while simultaneously reducing that system’s detrimental impacts on climate, land use, freshwater resources, and biodiversity. This will require finding alternatives to carbon emissions-intensive agriculture, which provides the backbone of today’s global food production system. Here, we explore the hypothesis that marine algae-based aquaculture can help close the projected gap in society’s future nutritional demands while simultaneously improving environmental sustainability. Food production from marine algae-based aquaculture has the potential to contribute more than the total global protein demand projected for 2050, which ranges from 263.8 Mt/yr to 286.5 Mt/yr. It also offers important nutritional and environmental sustainability advantages relative to terrestrial agriculture. Marine algae can provide a better source of high-quality nutritional protein, essential amino acids, and other micronutrients relative to terrestrial plants. In addition, because marine algae do not require soil, irrigation, and the open application of fertilizer, their cultivation does not need to compete with agriculture for arable land and freshwater nor does it lead to fertilizer runoff and downstream eutrophication. Furthermore, by reducing agriculture’s demand for arable land and freshwater, marine algae-based aquaculture can reduce the pressure for deforestation, potentially leading to globally significant reductions in carbon emissions and biodiversity loss.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Controlled Environments Enable Adaptive Management in Aquatic Ecosystems Under Altered Environments

Ecosystems worldwide are impacted by altered environment conditions resulting from climate, drought, and land use changes. Gaps in the science knowledge base regarding plant community response to these novel and rapid changes limit both science understanding and management of ecosystems. We describe how CE Technologies have enabled the rapid supply of gap-filling science, development of ecosystem simulation models, and remote sensing assessment tools to provide science-informed, adaptive management methods in the impacted aquatic ecosystem of the California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The Delta is the hub for California's water, supplying Southern California agriculture and urban communities as well as the San Francisco Bay area. The changes in environmental conditions including temperature, light, and water quality and associated expansion of invasive aquatic plants negatively impact water distribution and ecology of the San Francisco Bay/Delta complex. CE technologies define changes in resource use efficiencies, photosynthetic productivity, evapotranspiration, phenology, reproductive strategies, and spectral reflectance modifications in native and invasive species in response to altered conditions. We will discuss how the CE technologies play an enabling role in filling knowledge gaps regarding plant response to altered environments, parameterization and validation of ecosystem models, development of satellite-based, remote sensing tools, and operational management strategies.

Remote Sensing↗

Regional Warming from Aerosol Removal over the United States: Results from a Transient 2010-2050 Climate Simulation

We use a general circulation model (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM 3) to investigate the regional climate response to removal of aerosols over the United States. We perform a pair of transient 2010e2050 climate simulations following a scenario of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, with and without aerosols over the United States and with present-day aerosols elsewhere. We find that removing U.S. aerosol significantly enhances the warming from greenhouse gases in a spatial pattern that strongly correlates with that of the aerosol. Warming is nearly negligible outside the United States, but annual mean surface temperatures increase by 0.4e0.6 K in the eastern United States. Temperatures during summer heat waves in the Northeast rise by as much as 1e2 K due to aerosol removal, driven in part by positive feedbacks involving soil moisture and low cloud cover. Reducing U.S. aerosol sources to achieve air quality objectives could thus have significant unintended regional warming consequences.

Mickley, L. J.↗

Southern California Health & Air Quality: Using Remote Sensing to Detect the Frequency and Drivers of Red Tide Blooms in California to Assist in the Management of Human and Marine Exposure to Algal Toxins

In 2020, the dinoflagellate species Lingulodinium polyedra was measured at unprecedented levels off the southern California coast, raising concern for local communities. At high levels, L. polyedra can cause marine life mortality, food-borne illness, and respiratory-related health risks in humans. In partnership with the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Southwest Fisheries Science Center, the California Department of Public Health, and the University of California San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography, this project utilized satellite imagery to visualize and analyze spatiotemporal trends of historical red tide events associated with L. polyedra. Using the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership’s (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), Aqua’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Global Change Observation Mission – Climate (GCOM-C) Second Generation Global Imager (SGLI), the team assessed the validity of using multiple sensors in detecting chlorophyll-a as a proxy for dinoflagellate dominated-algal blooms. The results suggest that VIIRS imagery processed using the Color Index algorithm from Hu et al. (2013), amongst all other algorithms and Earth observations assessed, shows the most promise in identifying L. polyedra blooms. The end products included an ArcGIS Dashboard and Google Earth Engine tool that when combined, provided users with spatial and temporal trends, interactive interfaces to analyze the effectiveness of various sensors and algorithms, and an overall contribution to aid in the management of human health and the economy impacted by harmful algal blooms.

Harmful algal bloom↗

Unlocking Solutions: Innovative Approaches to Identifying and Mitigating the Environmental Impacts of Undocumented Orphan Wells in the United States

In the United States, hundreds of thousands of undocumented orphan wells have been abandoned, leaving the burden of managing environmental hazards to governmental agencies or the public. These wells, a result of over a century of fossil fuel extraction without adequate regulation, lack basic information like location and depth, emit greenhouse gases, and leak toxic substances into groundwater. For most of these wells, basic information such as well location and depth is unknown or unverified. Addressing this issue necessitates innovative and interdisciplinary approaches for locating, characterizing, and mitigating their environmental impacts. Our survey of the United States revealed the need for tools to identify well locations and assess conditions, prompting the development of technologies including machine learning to automatically extract information from old records (95%+ accuracy), remote sensing technologies like aero-magnetometers to find buried wells, and cost-effective methods for estimating methane emissions. Notably, fixed-wing drones equipped with magnetometers have emerged as cost-effective and efficient for discovering unknown wells, offering advantages over helicopters and quadcopters. Efforts also involved leveraging local knowledge through outreach to state and tribal governments as well as citizen science initiatives. These initiatives aim to significantly contribute to environmental sustainability by reducing greenhouse gases and improving air and water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Linking crop traits to transcriptome differences in a progeny population of tetraploid potato

Background: Potato is the third most consumed crop in the world. Breeding for traits such as yield, product quality and pathogen resistance are main priorities. Identifying molecular signatures of these and other important traits is important in future breeding efforts. In this study, a progeny population from a cross between a breeding line, SW93–1015, and a cultivar, Désirée, was studied by trait analysis and RNA-seq in order to develop understanding of segregating traits at the molecular level and identify transcripts with expressional correlation to these traits. Transcript markers with predictive value for field performance applicable under controlled environments would be of great value for plant breeding.Results: A total of 34 progeny lines from SW93–1015 and Désirée were phenotyped for 17 different traits in a field in Nordic climate conditions and controlled climate settings. A master transcriptome was constructed with all 34 progeny lines and the parents through a de novo assembly of RNA-seq reads. Gene expression data obtained in a controlled environment from the 34 lines was correlated to traits by different similarity indices, including Pearson and Spearman, as well as DUO, which calculates the co-occurrence between high and low values for gene expression and trait. Our study linked transcripts to traits such as yield, growth rate, high laying tubers, late and tuber blight, tuber greening and early flowering. We found several transcripts associated to late blight resistance and transcripts encoding receptors were associated to Dickeya solani susceptibility. Transcript levels of a UBX-domain protein was negatively associated to yield and a GLABRA2 expression modulator was negatively associated to growth rate.Conclusion: In our study, we identify 100’s of transcripts, putatively linked based on expression with 17 traits of potato, representing both well-known and novel associations. This approach can be used to link the transcriptome to traits. We explore the possibility of associating the level of transcript expression from controlled, optimal environments to traits in a progeny population with different methods introducing the application of DUO for the first time on transcriptome data. We verify the expression pattern for five of the putative transcript markers in another progeny population.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite-and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected as a co-winner of NASA?s 2005 Software of the Year award.LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has e volved from two earlier efforts -- North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations.In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) for their land data assimilation systems to support weather and climate modeling. LIS not only consolidates the capabilities of these two systems, but also enables a much larger variety of configurations with respect to horizontal spatial resolution, input datasets and choice of land surface model through "plugins". LIS has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to support studies of land-atmosphere coupling be enabling ensembles of land surface states to be tested against multiple representations of the atmospheric boundary layer. LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation, who showed that the use of sequential remotely sensed soil moisture products can be used to derive soil hydraulic and texture properties given a sufficient dynamic range in the soil moisture retrievals and accurate precipitation inputs.LIS has also recently been demonstrated for multi-model data assimilation using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for sequential assimilation of soil moisture, snow, and temperature.Ongoing work has demonstrated the value of bias correction as part of the filter, and also that of joint calibration and assimilation.Examples and case studies demonstrating the capabilities and impacts of LIS for hydrometeorological modeling, assimilation and parameter estimation will be presented as advancements towards the next generation of integrated observation and modeling systems

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗

Invasive Plant Species Management Plan for Los Alamos National Laboratory (Rev.3)

Native species are plants and animals that continually occupy a natural range without direct or indirect introduction and/or care by humans. They are adapted to the environmental conditions and processes of the ecosystem in which they reside. A species introduced into a novel ecosystem can either exploit that ecosystem and thrive or be unable to survive in that ecosystem (Hobbs et al. 2006). Alien or non-native species are species that are intentionally or accidentally introduced into a novel ecosystem and are capable of living and propagating within the physical parameters of that ecosystem. Invasive species is a species that is non-native (or alien) to the ecosystem under consideration and a noxious species are those whose introduction causes or is likely to cause economic or environmental harm. The term invasive species is applicable to plants and animals alike; however, this invasive species management plan currently focuses on invasive vegetation. Invasive plant species are usually capable of rapid colonization of disturbed ground, such as after a change in wildfire regime intensity and frequency (Reilly et al. 2020) or anthropogenic ground disturbance (Burke and Grime 1996; Hobbs and Huenneke 1992). Climate change facilitates the spread and establishment of many alien species and creates new opportunities for them to become invasive (Turbelin and Catford 2021). As climate change impacts increase in the coming decades, we may see in an increase in invasive species establishment. See a list of definitions of terms pertinent to this document in Appendix A: Definitions. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) hosts populations of non-native and invasive species all typical of the northern New Mexico region (Martin 2004; NMDA 2020). By implementing an invasive species management plan, LANL will have readily accessible management strategies for invasive species that are found on-site. The benefits of managing invasive species include a decrease in wildland fire risks, an increase in soil productivity, an increase in (productive or beneficial) wildlife habitat, an increase in water quantity and quality, and the restoration of impacted areas (Burke and Grime 1996; Hobbs and Huenneke 1992; D’Antonio and Hobbie 2005; MacDougall et al. 2013; Reilly et al. 2020). The aforementioned benefits from invasive species management directly enable the LANL mission by ensuring compliance requirements are met and site-wide programs, such as the Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan, are supported for a mutually beneficial outcome. An example for the LANL site specifically, controlling non-native annual plant species, for example, could reduce the costs associated with stabilizing soils during the stormwater pollution prevention compliance process. Roadway and utility right-of-way areas are another place where an integrated vegetation management strategy would promote low growing perennial plants in a way that is mutually beneficial to habitat and the institution through lowered maintenance costs. There is also an economic benefit to managing invasive species. In one nationwide study, invasive plants had an estimated impact cost of $190.45 billion (Fantel-Lepczyk et al. 2022). Investing in preventative measures and surveillance could help to offset future control and management costs of invasive species that have the potential to become established. The State of New Mexico has developed plant species lists and recommendations through the New Mexico Department of Agriculture’s Noxious Weeds Management Act, Article 7D (NM Statute § 76-7D-4 2021); however, effective invasive species management must rely on local knowledge of the site and region. Los Alamos County (LAC) has already compiled a target invasive plant species list and species-specific management objectives (Martin 2004). Therefore, the New Mexico Noxious Weed List and the LAC invasive plant species list, as well as management objectives from those documents, are integrated into LANL’s invasive plant species management plan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prescreening-Based Subset Selection for Improving Predictions of Earth System Models With Application to Regional Prediction of Red Tide

We present the ensemble method of prescreening-based subset selection to improve ensemble predictions of Earth system models (ESMs). In the prescreening step, the independent ensemble members are categorized based on their ability to reproduce physically-interpretable features of interest that are regional and problem-specific. The ensemble size is then updated by selecting the subsets that improve the performance of the ensemble prediction using decision relevant metrics. We apply the method to improve the prediction of red tide along the West Florida Shelf in the Gulf of Mexico, which affects coastal water quality and has substantial environmental and socioeconomic impacts on the State of Florida. Red tide is a common name for harmful algal blooms that occur worldwide, which result from large concentrations of aquatic microorganisms, such as dinoflagellate Karenia brevis, a toxic single celled protist. We present ensemble method for improving red tide prediction using the high resolution ESMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and reanalysis data. The study results highlight the importance of prescreening-based subset selection with decision relevant metrics in identifying non-representative models, understanding their impact on ensemble prediction, and improving the ensemble prediction. These findings are pertinent to other regional environmental management applications and climate services. Additionally, our analysis follows the FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship such that data and analysis tools are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable. As such, the interactive Colab notebooks developed for data analysis are annotated in the paper. This allows for efficient and transparent testing of the results’ sensitivity to different modeling assumptions. Moreover, this research serves as a starting point to build upon for red tide management, using the publicly available CMIP, Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and reanalysis data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal Variation of Dust Aerosol Vertical Distribution in Arctic Based on Polarized Micropulse Lidar Measurement

This study investigates the seasonal variation of dust aerosol vertical distribution using polarized Micropulse lidar (MPL) measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska (NSA) observatory from January 2013 to September 2017. For the first time, multi-year aerosol backscatter coefficients are retrieved at the ARM NSA site from MPL measurements and are consistent with co-located high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL) measurements. The high-quality aerosol backscatter coefficient retrievals are used to derive the particle depolarization ratio (PDR) at the wavelength of 532 nm, which is used to identify the presence of dust aerosols. The annual cycles of the vertical distributions of dust backscatter coefficient and PDR and dust aerosol optical depth (DAOD) show that aerosol loading has a maximum in late winter and early spring but a minimum in late summer and early autumn. Vertically, dust aerosol occurs in the entire troposphere in spring and winter and in the low and middle troposphere in summer and autumn. Because dust aerosols are effective ice nuclei, the seasonality of dust aerosol vertical distribution has important implications for the Arctic climate through aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions, primarily through impacting mixed-phase cloud processes.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The HTAP_v3.2 emission mosaic: merging regional and global monthly emissions (2000–2020) to support air quality modelling and policies

This study, performed under the umbrella of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP), responds to the need of the global and regional atmospheric modelling community of having a mosaic emission inventory of air pollutants that conforms to specific requirements: global coverage, long time series, spatially distributed emissions with high time resolution, and a high sectoral resolution. The mosaic approach of integrating official regional emission inventories based on locally reported data, with a global inventory based on a globally consistent methodology, allows modellers to perform simulations of a high scientific quality while also ensuring that the results remain relevant to policymakers. HTAP_v3.2, an ad-hoc global mosaic of anthropogenic inventories, is an update to the HTAP_v3 global mosaic inventory and has been developed by integrating official inventories over specific areas (North America, Europe, Asia including China, Japan and Korea) with the independent Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory for the remaining world regions. The results are spatially and temporally distributed emissions of SO 2 , NO x , CO, NMVOC, NH 3 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , Black Carbon (BC), and Organic Carbon (OC), with a spatial resolution of 0.1 × 0.1° and time intervals of months and years covering the period 2000–2020 (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17086684, Crippa, 2025, https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_htap_v32, last access: 27 October 2025). The emissions are further disaggregated to 16 anthropogenic emitting sectors. This paper describes the methodology applied to develop such an emission mosaic, reports on source allocation, differences among existing inventories, and best practices for the mosaic compilation. One of the key strengths of the HTAP_v3.2 emission mosaic is its temporal coverage, enabling the analysis of emission trends over the past two decades. The development of a global emission mosaic over such long time series represents a unique product for global air quality modelling and for better-informed policy making, reflecting the community effort expended by the TF-HTAP to disentangle the complexity of transboundary transport of air pollution.

Guizzardi, Diego [European Commission, Ispra (Ital↗

Holiday in Lights: Tracking Cultural Patterns in Demand for Energy Services

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

VIIRS night sky↗

Microwave Remote Sensing of Snow: Advances over Ice Sheet, Land, and Sea Ice

Satellite microwave radiometers have enabled us to observe the cryosphere and its changes. A variety of algorithms have been developed since the late 1970s. These convert observed microwave radiation into geophysical, glaciological properties relevant to study ice sheets’ snow accumulation and melt, terrestrial snow water equivalent and freeze/thaw state, and various sea ice cover characteristics like extent, concentration, and thickness. In spite of the continuous availability of satellite microwave radiometers for the past 40 years, potential for advancing our understanding of the relationship between microwave radiation and snow/ice properties still exists. Original empirical algorithms have matured and are becoming more physically based. This presentation offers insights into some advances made during the past 10 years in monitoring ice sheet, terrestrial snow, and sea ice. These advances made it possible to provide new, more reliable climate-related variables to the community for the satellite era using the typical 18-37 GHz frequency range (e.g., retrievals of grain size profiles in Antarctica, snow cover stratification, and therefore accumulation with applications to climate studies). Recent NASA instruments have recorded low microwave frequencies (at 1.4 GHz). These observations have a large penetration depth, they emanate from deep into the ice, where properties including temperature are very stable. Nonetheless, it has been found at both Dome C, Antarctica and Summit, Greenland that changes in surface snow properties significantly influence these observations. Compared to ice sheets, terrestrial snow and sea ice present higher spatial heterogeneities. Over land, presence of canopy and lakes, though with known locations, add ambiguities in the retrievals of snow properties. Over sea ice, ridges, leads, changes in salinity, and sea ice drift augment further the level of difficulty in obtaining robust geophysical properties. Assessing the quality of satellite retrievals, often requiring field activities, is a necessary step in designing the next generation of microwave algorithms to monitor changes in the cryosphere.

Brucker, Ludovic↗

Robust IR Remote Sensing Technique of the Total Column of Trace Gases Including Carbon Dioxide and Methane

Progress on the development of a differential radiometer based upon the Fabry-Perot interferometer (FPI) for methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (C02) detection in the atmosphere is presented. Methane measurements are becoming increasingly important as a component of NASA's programs to understand the global carbon cycle and quantifY the threat of global warming. Methane is the third most important greenhouse gas in the Earth's radiation budget (after water vapor and carbon dioxide) and the second most important anthropogenic contributor to global warming. The importance of global warming and air quality to society caused the National Research Council to recommend that NASA develop the following missions [1]: ASCENDS (Active Sensing of C02 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons), GEOCAPE (Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events), and GACM (Global Atmosphere Composition Mission). Though methane measurements are not specifically called out in these missions, ongoing environmental changes have raised the importance of understanding the methane budget. In the decadal survey is stated that "to close the carbon budget, we would also address methane, but the required technology is not obvious at this time. If appropriate and cost-effective methane technology becomes available, we strongly recommend adding a methane capability". In its 2007 report the International Panel on Climate Change identified methane as a key uncertainty in our understanding saying that the causes of recent changes in the growth rate of atmospheric CH4 are not well understood. What we do know is that methane arises from a number of natural sources including wet lands and the oceans plus man made sources from agriculture, as well as coal and petroleum production and distribution. It has recently been pointed out that large amount of methane are frozen in the permafrost of Canada and Siberia. There is a fear that melting of this permafrost driven by global warming may release large amounts of methane very suddenly further exacerbating climate change [2]. Last year our group began a joint effort with Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory to investigate the possibility of developing a small unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) equipped to measure greenhouse gases-particularly methane. Although we are targeting our system for smaller UAV's the instrument will be directly applicable to missions involving larger NASA UAV's such as Global Hawk or even on missions utilizing manned aircraft. Because of its small size, inherent ruggedness and simplicity some version of our proposed instrument may find a role as a satellite instrument for NASA or NOAA.

Georgieva, E. M.↗

Midwest Food Security & Agriculture II: Leveraging NASA Earth Observations to Analyze and Display Crop Phenology Data and Weather Conditions to Support Expansion of Small Grain Crops in the Midwest

Agriculture in the Midwest is dominated by monoculture systems that strip the soil of nutrients, decrease yields, and worsen water quality. Crop diversification and cultivating small grains is economically and ecologically advantageous, but limited in practice due to a lack of data about small-grain crop performance as well as monoculture-favoring insurance coverage, economic incentives, and sociocultural traditions. Practical Farmers of Iowa (PFI) strives to create more sustainable agriculture and supports Midwestern farmers in adding small grains into their crop rotations. The DEVELOP team partnered with the USDA Agricultural Research Service and the USA National Phenology Network to assist PFI in applying NASA Earth observation data to track small-grain crop performance. This project developed a Google Earth Engine user interface that enables PFI farmers to compare satellite-assessed vegetation production and climatic conditions of their farm with other PFI farmers. The team assessed the crop performance through Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values derived from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI). Additionally, the team created a regression model to analyze the predictive properties of vegetation indices and crop yield, ultimately establishing a relationship with mean NDVI from the early growing season. PFI farmers can utilize these products to make informed decisions about their crop production as well as advocate for more expansive insurance policies to protect small-grain crops.

Sophie Barrowman↗

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) IV

Atmospheric composition continues to be a key Earth science focus for international space agencies and research organizations. The target constituent varies depending upon the topic area of interest such as monitoring the ozone layer and the efficacy of the Montreal Protocol, assessing the influence of volcanic eruptions and large wildfires on the atmosphere, improving our knowledge of transport processes, or evaluating the impacts of greenhouse gases on climate. Additionally, there is a growing need for measurement continuity of many trace gases both from an inability to properly assess long-term trends without it as well as the reliance of reanalyses and chemistry climate models on observational input. To this end, proper continuity requires continuous and overlapping multi-instrument data records of which spaceborne measurements are a critical component. However, most current satellite systems are well beyond their expected lifetimes, and so we look toward the future to develop the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) IV as a future mission concept. Enabled by the NASA Earth Science Technology Office’s (ESTO) Instrument Incubator Program, the SAGE IV Pathfinder project developed and validated a prototype demonstration that paves the way for a future SAGE IV spaceflight mission. Utilizing solar occultation imaging, SAGE IV will be capable of measuring key species in the stratosphere and upper troposphere with the same quality as previous SAGE instruments but with greatly improved pointing knowledge and extensibility to new science targets. The precision and stability of a well-designed occultation instrument can act as a calibration reference standard for other spaceborne instruments, ensuring proper continuity of the desired science targets. Furthermore, current technological advancements allow SAGE IV to fit within a CubeSat framework and make use of commercial hardware, significantly reducing the size and cost when compared with traditional missions and enabling sustainability of future measurements.

Robert Damadeo↗