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NASA NTRS2014

Comparison Of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Datasets For Projecting Changes In Extreme Precipitation In The San Francisco Bay Area.

Water resource managers planning for the adaptation to future events of extreme precipitation now have access to high resolution downscaled daily projections derived from statistical bias correction and constructed analogs. We also show that along the Pacific Coast the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI) is a reliable predictor of storm likelihood, and therefore a predictor of seasonal precipitation totals and likelihood of extremely intense precipitation. Such time series can be used to project intensity duration curves into the future or input into stormwater models. However, few climate projection studies have explored the impact of the type of downscaling method used on the range and uncertainty of predictions for local flood protection studies. Here we present a study of the future climate flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center, located in South Bay Area, by comparing the range of predictions in extreme precipitation events calculated from three sets of time series downscaled from CMIP5 data: 1) the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs method dataset downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid (12km); 2) the Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation method downscaled to a 1km grid; 3) a statistical model of extreme daily precipitation events and projected NOI from CMIP5 models. In addition, predicted years of extreme precipitation are used to estimate the risk of overtopping of the retention pond located on the site through simulations of the EPA SWMM hydrologic model. Preliminary results indicate that the intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase and flood the NASA Ames retention pond. The results from these estimations will assist flood protection managers in planning for infrastructure adaptations.

Storm↗

NASA NTRS1975

The simulated depth history of dust grains in the lunar regolith

Trajectories giving the individual depth variations of lunar dust grains with time are randomly generated by a Monte Carlo code, where the variables are the mass and speed distribution of meteorites at the lunar surface and the geometrical shape of impact craters. A statistical analysis of a great number of such trajectories is then used to define the 'average' depth history of lunar dust grains for two grain radii: 1 and 50 microns. This yields: (1) estimates for time constants involved during the dynamic evolution of the regolith, (2) a model for the layering of the regolith, and (3) a better understanding of the basic dust-grain mechanisms responsible for the formation of the most mature lunar soil samples. The validity of various soil models proposed for the dynamic evolution of the regolith is discussed in terms of experimental constraints on the models.

Duraud, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A simulation-based approach to the design of control systems with uncertain parameters

A design method for control systems with uncertain parameters is presented. The method utilizes a generalized sensitivity approach which separates the parameter space into regions which produce a system response that satisfies given design criteria and regions which do not. Nonparametric statistics and confidence limits for the binomial distribution are used to determine degree of parameter sensitivity and to locate regions in the parameter space which maximize the probability of producing a desirable system response. In an example it is shown that a given parameter may have to be known to a lesser degree of uncertainty to be able to specify a satisfactory design.

Auslander, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Data simulation for the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS)

This project aims to build a data analysis system that will utilize existing video tape scenes of lightning as viewed from space. The resultant data will be used for the design and development of the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) software and algorithm analysis. The desire for statistically significant metrics implies that a large data set needs to be analyzed. Before 1990 the quality and quantity of video was insufficient to build a usable data set. At this point in time, there is usable data from missions STS-34, STS-32, STS-31, STS-41, STS-37, and STS-39. During the summer of 1990, a manual analysis system was developed to demonstrate that the video analysis is feasible and to identify techniques to deduce information that was not directly available. Because the closed circuit television system used on the space shuttle was intended for documentary TV, the current value of the camera focal length and pointing orientation, which are needed for photoanalysis, are not included in the system data. A large effort was needed to discover ancillary data sources as well as develop indirect methods to estimate the necessary parameters. Any data system coping with full motion video faces an enormous bottleneck produced by the large data production rate and the need to move and store the digitized images. The manual system bypassed the video digitizing bottleneck by using a genlock to superimpose pixel coordinates on full motion video. Because the data set had to be obtained point by point by a human operating a computer mouse, the data output rate was small. The loan and subsequent acquisition of a Abekas digital frame store with a real time digitizer moved the bottleneck from data acquisition to a problem of data transfer and storage. The semi-automated analysis procedure was developed using existing equipment and is described. A fully automated system is described in the hope that the components may come on the market at reasonable prices in the next few years.

Boeck, William L.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Statistical Properties of Line Centroid Velocity Increments in the rho Ophiuchi Cloud

We present a comparison of histograms of CO (2-1) line centroid velocity increments in the rho Ophiuchi molecular cloud with those computed for spectra synthesized from a three-dimensional, compressible, but non-starforming and non-gravitating hydrodynamic simulation. Histograms of centroid velocity increments in the rho Ophiuchi cloud show clearly non-Gaussian wings, similar to those found in histograms of velocity increments and derivatives in experimental studies of laboratory and atmospheric flows, as well as numerical simulations of turbulence. The magnitude of these wings increases monotonically with decreasing separation, down to the angular resolution of the data. This behavior is consistent with that found in the phase of the simulation which has most of the properties of incompressible turbulence. The time evolution of the magnitude of the non-Gaussian wings in the histograms of centroid velocity increments in the simulation is consistent with the evolution of the vorticity in the flow. However, we cannot exclude the possibility that the wings are associated with the shock interaction regions. Moreover, in an active starforming region like the rho Ophiuchi cloud, the effects of shocks may be more important than in the simulation. However, being able to identify shock interaction regions in the interstellar medium is also important, since numerical simulations show that vorticity is generated in shock interactions.

Lis, D. C.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Stochastic-Strength-Based Damage Simulation Tool for Ceramic Matrix and Polymer Matrix Composite Structures

Stochastic-based, discrete-event progressive damage simulations of ceramic-matrix composite and polymer matrix composite material structures have been enabled through the development of a unique multiscale modeling tool. This effort involves coupling three independently developed software programs: (1) the Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC), (2) the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program (CARES/ Life), and (3) the Abaqus finite element analysis (FEA) program. MAC/GMC contributes multiscale modeling capabilities and micromechanics relations to determine stresses and deformations at the microscale of the composite material repeating unit cell (RUC). CARES/Life contributes statistical multiaxial failure criteria that can be applied to the individual brittle-material constituents of the RUC. Abaqus is used at the global scale to model the overall composite structure. An Abaqus user-defined material (UMAT) interface, referred to here as "FEAMAC/CARES," was developed that enables MAC/GMC and CARES/Life to operate seamlessly with the Abaqus FEA code. For each FEAMAC/CARES simulation trial, the stochastic nature of brittle material strength results in random, discrete damage events, which incrementally progress and lead to ultimate structural failure. This report describes the FEAMAC/CARES methodology and discusses examples that illustrate the performance of the tool. A comprehensive example problem, simulating the progressive damage of laminated ceramic matrix composites under various off-axis loading conditions and including a double notched tensile specimen geometry, is described in a separate report.

composite structures↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Massively Parallel Bayesian Approach to Planetary Protection Trajectory Analysis and Design

The NASA Planetary Protection Office has levied a requirement that the upper stage of future planetary launches have a less than 10(exp -4) chance of impacting Mars within 50 years after launch. A brute-force approach requires a decade of computer time to demonstrate compliance. By using a Bayesian approach and taking advantage of the demonstrated reliability of the upper stage, the required number of fifty-year propagations can be massively reduced. By spreading the remaining embarrassingly parallel Monte Carlo simulations across multiple computers, compliance can be demonstrated in a reasonable time frame. The method used is described here.

parallel computing↗

NASA NTRS2017

Direct Numerical Simulation of Hypersonic Turbulent Boundary Layer inside an Axisymmetric Nozzle

As a first step toward a study of acoustic disturbance field within a conventional, hypersonic wind tunnel, direct numerical simulations (DNS) of a Mach 6 turbulent boundary layer on the inner wall of a straight axisymmetric nozzle are conducted and the results are compared with those for a flat plate. The DNS results for a nozzle radius to boundary-layer thickness ratio of 5:5 show that the turbulence statistics of the nozzle-wall boundary layer are nearly unaffected by the transverse curvature of the nozzle wall. Before the acoustic waves emanating from different parts of the nozzle surface can interfere with each other and undergo reflections from adjacent portions of the nozzle surface, the rms pressure fluctuation beyond the boundary layer edge increases toward the nozzle axis, apparently due to a focusing effect inside the axisymmetric configuration. Spectral analysis of pressure fluctuations at both the wall and the freestream indicates a similar distribution of energy content for both the nozzle and the flat plate, with the peak of the premultiplied frequency spectrum at a frequency of [(omega)(delta)]/U(sub infinity) approximately 6.0 inside the free stream and at [(omega)(delta)]/U(sub infinity) approximately 2.0 along the wall. The present results provide the basis for follow-on simulations involving reverberation effects inside the nozzle.

Huang, Junji↗

NASA NTRS1977

Computer simulation of the velocity diffusion of cosmic rays

Monte Carlo simulation experiments were performed in order to study the velocity diffusion of charged particles in a static turbulent magnetic field. By following orbits of particles moving in a large ensemble of random magnetic field realizations with suitable chosen statistical properties, a pitch-angle diffusion coefficient is derived. Results are presented for a variety of particle rigidities and rms random field strengths and compared with the predictions of standard quasi-linear theory and the nonlinear partially averaged field theory.

Kaiser, T. B.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Are quasar redshifts randomly distributed

A statistical analysis of possible clumping (not periodicity) of emission line redshifts of QSO's shows the available data to be compatible with random fluctuations of a smooth, non-clumped distribution. This result is demonstrated with Monte Carlo simulations as well as with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. It is in complete disagreement with the analysis by Varshni, which is shown to be incorrect.

Weymann, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Turbulence characteristics inside a turbulent spot in plane Poiseuille flow

In wall-bounded shear flows the transition to turbulence through localized disturbances goes through a pattern starting with a development of shear layers. The localized normal velocity fluctuations induce normal vorticity through the lift-up effect. These shear layers become unstable to secondary disturbances, and if the amplitudes of the disturbances are large enough, a turbulent spot develops. Investigations of the spot in boundary layers has shown that the turbulent part of the spot is very similar to a fully developed boundary layer. Wygnanski et al. (1976) showed that the mean profile at the center-symmetry plane has a logarithmic region and Johansson et al. (1987) showed that both the higher-order statistics and flow structures in the spot were the same as in the corresponding fully developed flow. In what respects the turbulence inside the Poiseuille spot is similar to fully developed turbulent channel flow is studied. The numerically simulated spot is used, where the characteristics inside the spot are compared to those of the wave packet in the wingtip area. A recent experimental investigation of the velocity field associated with the Poiseuille spot by Klingmann et al. is used for comparison.

Henningson, D. S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Gamma ray burst astrometry 2: Numerical tests

Since the announcement of the discovery of sources of gamma ray radiation in 1973, many more reports of such bursts have been published. Numerous artificial satellites have been equipped with gamma ray detectors including GRO. Unfortunately, almost no progress has been made in identifying the sources of this high energy radiation. Only one visible counterpart is known. It is suspected that this is a consequence of the methods currently used to define gamma ray burst source 'error boxes'. An alternative procedure was proposed in 1988 by Taff. Herein, Monte Carlo simulations are reported of the efficacy of this technique using realistic burst timing uncertainties and satellite location errors as well as a variety of satellite constellations. Since these are controlled numerical experiments, the dependence is examined of the statistics of the errors in the deduced burst wavefront normal as a function of the timing inconsistencies, detector location standard deviations, and especially the number and distribution of the detectors. The results clearly show that an arc minute prediction of a unique burst location is routinely obtainable once there are at least two interplanetary detectors.

Taff, L. G.↗

NASA NTRS1992

A deep x ray survey in the Lockman hole and the soft x ray log N - log S

The longest pointed observation (152 ksec) with the Rosat position sensitive proportional counter in the direction of the absolutely lowest neutral hydrogen column density is discussed. 26 shallower fields from the Rosat medium sensivity survey are analyzed. 1176 X-ray sources were detected in at least one Rosat energy band in these fields covering a total solid angle of 9.3 deg; 661 of these sources constitute a statistically complete sample detected in the hard band with 0.5 to 2 keV fluxes greater than 2.5 times 10 to the power of minus 15 erg/sq cm s. The faintest limiting flux of the survey is analyzed. Detailed simulations show that confusion effects and other selection biases are relatively small and can be corrected for in the sample. From an analysis in the Lockman field, a best fit slope of approximately 1.8 is found for the extrapolation of the differential X-ray counts below 2.5 times 10 to the power of minus 15 erg/sq cm s. On the basis of this analysis an upper limit of approximately 25% can be found for a truly diffuse background component in the Rosat hard band.

Hasinger, G.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Investigation of intrinsic variability in one-dimensional parallel shocks using steady state hybrid simulations

We have developed a means of producing a steady state hybrid simulation of a collisionless shock. The shock is stopped in the simulation box by transforming into the shock frame and by modifying the downstream boundary conditions to allow the plasma to flow through the simulation box. Once the shock is stationary in the box frame, the simulation can be run for an arbitrary time with a fixed box size and a fixed number of simulation particles. Using this technique, we have shown that certain gross properties associated with the shock, such as the particle distribution function (including energetic particles produced by Fermi acceleration) and the flow speed profile, are constant (except for statistical variations) over hundreds of gyroperiods when averaged over times short compared to the average residence time of energetic particles. Our results imply that any microphysical processes responsible for particle heating and/or injection into the Fermi mechanism can be viewed as smooth and continuous on timescales longer than a few gyroperiods.

Bennett, Lee↗

NASA NTRS1997

On The Validity of the Assumed PDF Method for Modeling Binary Mixing/Reaction of Evaporated Vapor in GAS/Liquid-Droplet Turbulent Shear Flow

An Investigation of the statistical description of binary mixing and/or reaction between a carrier gas and an evaporated vapor species in two-phase gas-liquid turbulent flows is perfomed through both theroetical analysis and comparisons with results from direct numerical simulations (DNS) of a two-phase mixing layer.

Vapor Binary Mixing Turbulent flows↗

NASA NTRS2017

Characterizing the Survey Strategy and Initial Orbit Determination Abilities of the NASA MCAT Telescope for Geosynchronous Orbital Debris Environmental Studies

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) recently commissioned the Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (MCAT) on Ascension Island with the primary goal of obtaining population statistics of the geosynchronous (GEO) orbital debris environment. To help facilitate this, studies have been conducted using MCAT's known and projected capabilities to estimate the accuracy and timeliness in which it can survey the GEO environment. A simulated GEO debris population is created and sampled at various cadences and run through the Constrained Admissible Region Multi Hypotheses Filter (CAR-MHF). The orbits computed from the results are then compared to the simulated data to assess MCAT's ability to determine accurately the orbits of debris at various sample rates. Additionally, estimates of the rate at which MCAT will be able produce a complete GEO survey are presented using collected weather data and the proposed observation data collection cadence. The specific methods and results are presented here.

Frith, J.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Characterizing the Survey Strategy and Initial Orbit Determination Abilities of the NASA MCAT Telescope for Geosynchronous Orbital Debris Environmental Studies

Frith, James↗

NASA NTRS2018

Preliminary Evaluation of Influence of Aerosols on the Simulation of Brightness Temperature in the NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

This document reports on preliminary results obtained when studying the impact of aerosols on the calculation of brightness temperature (BT) for satellite infrared (IR) instruments that are currently assimilated in a 3DVAR configuration of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). A set of fifteen aerosol species simulated by the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model is used to evaluate the influence of the aerosol fields on the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) calculations taking place in the observation operators of the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis system of GEOSADAS. Results indicate that taking aerosols into account in the BT calculation improves the fit to observations over regions with significant amounts of dust. The cooling effect obtained with the aerosol-affected BT leads to a slight warming of the analyzed surface temperature (by about 0:5oK) in the tropical Atlantic ocean (off northwest Africa), whereas the effect on the air temperature aloft is negligible. In addition, this study identifies a few technical issues to be addressed in future work if aerosol-affected BT are to be implemented in reanalysis and operational settings. The computational cost of applying CRTM aerosol absorption and scattering options is too high to justify their use, given the size of the benefits obtained. Furthermore, the differentiation between clouds and aerosols in GSI cloud detection procedures needs satisfactory revision.

3DVAR↗