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At least 1,333 records · Page 74

OR14-V-Uncertainty-PD2La Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Safeguards and Nondestructive Assay Final Report

The various methods of nondestructive assay (NDA) of special nuclear material (SNM) have applications in nuclear nonproliferation, including detection and identification of illicit SNM at border crossings and quantifying SNM at nuclear facilities for safeguards. No assay method is complete without “error bars,” which provide one way of expressing confidence in the assay result. Consequently, NDA specialists typically provide error bars and also partition total uncertainty into “random” and “systematic” components so that, for example, an error bar can be developed for the total mass estimate in multiple items. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for NDA has always been important, but it is recognized that greater rigor is needed and achievable using modern statistical methods.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Achieving Metabolic Flux Analysis for S. cerevisiae at a Genome-Scale: Challenges, Requirements, and Considerations

Recent advances in 13C-Metabolic flux analysis (13C-MFA) have increased its capability to accurately resolve fluxes using a genome-scale model with narrow confidence intervals without pre-judging the activity or inactivity of alternate metabolic pathways. However, the necessary precautions, computational challenges, and minimum data requirements for successful analysis remain poorly established. This review aims to establish the necessary guidelines for performing 13C-MFA at the genome-scale for a compartmentalized eukaryotic system such as yeast in terms of model and data requirements, while addressing key issues such as statistical analysis and network complexity. We describe the various approaches used to simplify the genome-scale model in the absence of sufficient experimental flux measurements, the availability and generation of reaction atom mapping information, and the experimental flux and metabolite labeling distribution measurements to ensure statistical validity of the obtained flux distribution. Organism-specific challenges such as the impact of compartmentalization of metabolism, variability of biomass composition, and the cell-cycle dependence of metabolism are discussed. Identification of errors arising from incorrect gene annotation and suggested alternate routes using MFA are also highlighted.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Development of observation-based global multilayer soil moisture products for 1970 to 2016

Abstract. Soil moisture (SM) datasets are critical to understanding the global water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles and benefit extensive societal applications. However, individual sources of SM data (e.g., in situ and satellite observations, reanalysis, offline land surface model simulations, Earth system model – ESM – simulations) have source-specific limitations and biases related to the spatiotemporal continuity, resolutions, and modeling and retrieval assumptions. Here, we developed seven global, gap-free, long-term (1970–2016), multilayer (0–10, 10–30, 30–50, and 50–100 cm) SM products at monthly 0.5∘ resolution (available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13661312.v1; Wang and Mao, 2021) by synthesizing a wide range of SM datasets using three statistical methods (unweighted averaging, optimal linear combination, and emergent constraint). The merged products outperformed their source datasets when evaluated with in situ observations (mean bias from −0.044 to 0.033 m3 m−3, root mean square errors from 0.076 to 0.104 m3 m−3, Pearson correlations from 0.35 to 0.67) and multiple gridded datasets that did not enter merging because of insufficient spatial, temporal, or soil layer coverage. Three of the new SM products, which were produced by applying any of the three merging methods to the source datasets excluding the ESMs, had lower bias and root mean square errors and higher correlations than the ESM-dependent merged products. The ESM-independent products also showed a better ability to capture historical large-scale drought events than the ESM-dependent products. The merged products generally showed reasonable temporal homogeneity and physically plausible global sensitivities to observed meteorological factors, except that the ESM-dependent products underestimated the low-frequency temporal variability in SM and overestimated the high-frequency variability for the 50–100 cm depth. Based on these evaluation results, the three ESM-independent products were finally recommended for future applications because of their better performances than the ESM-dependent ones. Despite uncertainties in the raw SM datasets and fusion methods, these hybrid products create added value over existing SM datasets because of the performance improvement and harmonized spatial, temporal, and vertical coverages, and they provide a new foundation for scientific investigation and resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A GENERALIZED STOCHASTIC COLLOCATION APPROACH TO CONSTRAINED OPTIMIZATION FOR RANDOM DATA IDENTIFICATION PROBLEMS

We present a scalable, parallel mechanism for stochastic identification/control for problems constrained by partial differential equations with random input data. Several identification objectives will be discussed that either minimize the expectation of a tracking cost functional or minimize the difference of desired statistical quantities in the appropriate $L^p$ norm, and the distributed parameters/control can both deterministic or stochastic. Given an objective we prove the existence of an optimal solution, establish the validity of the Lagrange multiplier rule and obtain a stochastic optimality system of equations. The modeling process may describe the solution in terms of high dimensional spaces, particularly in the case when the input data (coefficients, forcing terms, boundary conditions, geometry, etc) are affected by a large amount of uncertainty. For higher accuracy, the computer simulation must increase the number of random variables (dimensions), and expend more effort approximating the quantity of interest in each individual dimension. Hence, we introduce a novel stochastic parameter identification algorithm that integrates an adjoint-based deterministic algorithm with the sparse grid stochastic collocation FEM approach. This allows for decoupled, moderately high dimensional, parameterized computations of the stochastic optimality system, where at each collocation point, deterministic analysis and techniques can be utilized. The advantage of our approach is that it allows for the optimal identification of statistical moments (mean value, variance, covariance, etc.) or even the whole probability distribution of the input random fields, given the probability distribution of some responses of the system (quantities of physical interest). Our rigorously derived error estimates, for the fully discrete problems, will be described and used to compare the efficiency of the method with several other techniques. Numerical examples illustrate the theoretical results and demonstrate the distinctions between the various stochastic identification objectives.

Webster, Clayton G↗

Statistical uncertainty of eddy covariance CO 2 fluxes inferred using a residual bootstrap approach

High-frequency eddy-covariance measurements of net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE) with the atmosphere are valuable resources for model parameterization, calibration, and validation. However, uncertainties in measured data, i.e., data gaps and inherent random errors, create problems for researchers attempting to quantify uncertainties in model projections of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling. Here, we demonstrate that a model-data fusion method (residual bootstrap) produces defensible annual NEE sums, through mimicking the behavior of random errors, filling missing values, and simulating gap-filling biases. This study estimated annual NEE sums for 53 site-years based on nine eddy-covariance tower sites in the USA, and found that our annual estimates were, in most cases, comparable in magnitude with those obtained from AmeriFlux gap-filled data. Additionally, compared to the AmeriFlux standardized gap-filling, our approach provides better NEE estimates for moderate to longer, and more frequent, data gaps. Annual accumulated uncertainties in NEE at the 95% confidence level were ±30gCm -2 year -1 for evergreen needleleaf forests; ±60gCm -2 year -1 for deciduous broadleaf forests; and ±80gCm -2 year -1 for croplands. The residual bootstrap performed worst when gap length was greater than one month or data exclusion greater than 90% during the growing season, common to other gap-filling techniques. However, this study produced robust results for most site years when monthly data coverage during the growing season is not extremely low. We therefore suggest that the inclusion of NEE uncertainty estimates and better estimation for moderate to longer, and more frequent, data gaps as provided by the residual bootstrap approach can be beneficial for ecosystem model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement of baryon acoustic oscillation correlations at z=2.3 with SDSS DR12 Lya-Forests [Measurements of BAO correlations at z = 2.3 with SDSS DR12 Lyα-Forests]

Here, we use flux-transmission correlations in Lyα forests to measure the imprint of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO). The study uses spectra of 157,783 quasars in the redshift range 2.1 ≤ z ≤ 3.5 from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 12 (DR12). Besides the statistical improvements on our previous studies using SDSS DR9 and DR11, we have implemented numerous improvements in the analysis procedure, allowing us to construct a physical model of the correlation function and to investigate potential systematic errors in the determination of the BAO peak position. The Hubble distance, D H = c/H(z), relative to the sound horizon is D H (z = 2.33)/r d = 9.07 ± 0.31. The best-determined combination of comoving angular-diameter distance, D M , and the Hubble distance is found to be D 0.7 H D 0.3 M /r d = 13.94 ± 0.35. This value is 1.028 ± 0.026 times the prediction of the flat- ΛCDM model consistent with the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy spectrum. The errors include marginalization over the effects of unidentified high-density absorption systems and fluctuations in ultraviolet ionizing radiation. Independently of the CMB measurements, the combination of our results and other BAO observations determine the open-ΛCDM density parameters to be Ω M = 0.296 ± 0.029, Ω Λ = 0.699 ± 0.100 and Ω k = –0.002 ± 0.119.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Two basic Uncertainty Relations in Quantum Mechanics

In the present article, we discuss two types of uncertainty relations in Quantum Mechanics-multiplicative and additive inequalities for two canonical observables. The multiplicative uncertainty relation was discovered by Heisenberg. Few years later (1930) Erwin Schroedinger has generalized and made it more precise than the original. The additive uncertainty relation is based on the three independent statistical moments in Quantum Mechanics-Cov(q,p), Var(q) and Var(p). We discuss the existing symmetry of both types of relations and applicability of the additive form for the estimation of the total error.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Feasibility of Correlation-Aware Inference and Universal Precision Scaling in Bonse–Hart Ultra-Small-Angle Neutron Scattering

Bonse–Hart ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS) provides access to micrometre-scale structure, but useful measurements often require long counting times. In this work, we test whether the expected smoothness of the scattering profile can be exploited to improve data quality at lower counting statistics. We apply a Gaussian-process-based method to Bonse–Hart USANS data and evaluate its performance on pseudo-measurements generated from high-statistics experiments under Poisson statistics. This provides a stringent test of how well the underlying I(Q) profile can be reconstructed when the available counts are substantially reduced. We further show that, in the counting-limited regime, the reconstruction error follows a universal scaling behaviour that differs from the usual independent-counting expectation. At higher counts, the improvement crosses over to a resolution-limited regime set by analyser-angle discretization and rocking-curve width. These results clarify when correlation-aware inference is useful in USANS and provide a practical basis for improving measurement efficiency and beam-time usage.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗

Final Report

We participated in a FASTER SCM intercomparison for which we ran our SCM for 3 years at the SGP to analyze statistics of the precipitation field (Song et al., 2013). An important feature of these simulations was the use of relaxation forcing to observed T, q, which decouples the model convection from the forcing and allows precipitation errors to emerge. Because the GISS cumulus parameterization includes a trigger that prevents convection until sufficient lifting is present, and because convection at the SGP is usually triggered by mesoscale motions that are not represented in the forcing when relaxation is applied, the duration of SCM precipitation is shorter than observed (Del Genio and Wolf, 2012) and thus its mean precipitation less than observed. However, its diurnal cycle phase is correct, and it is the only operational cumulus parameterization in the intercomparison that does not produce excessive warm season precipitation under weak large-scale forcing conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

INFERRING THE GALACTIC POTENTIAL WITH GAIA AND FRIENDS: SYNERGIES WITH OTHER SURVEYS

In the coming decade, the Gaia satellite will precisely measure the positions and velocities of millions of stars in the Galactic halo, including stars in many tidal streams. These streams, the products of hierarchical accretion of satellite galaxies by the Milky Way (MW), can be used to infer the Galactic gravitational potential thanks to their initial compactness in phase space. Plans for observations to extend Gaia’s radial velocity (RV) measurements to faint stars, and to determine precise distances to RR Lyrae in streams, would further extend the power of Gaia’s kinematic catalog to characterize the MW’s potential at large Galactocentric distances. In this work I explore the impact of these extra data on the ability to fit the potential using the method of action clustering, which statistically maximizes the information content (clumpiness) of the action space of tidal streams, eliminating the need to determine stream membership for individual stars. Using a mock halo in a toy spherical potential, updated post-launch error models for Gaia, and estimates for RV and distance errors for the tracers to be followed up, I show that combining either form of additional information with the Gaia catalog greatly reduces the bias in determining the scale radius and total mass of the Galaxy compared to the use of Gaia data alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A new ensemble-based consistency test for the Community Earth System Model (pyCECT v1.0)

Abstract. Climate simulation codes, such as the Community Earth System Model (CESM), are especially complex and continually evolving. Their ongoing state of development requires frequent software verification in the form of quality assurance to both preserve the quality of the code and instill model confidence. To formalize and simplify this previously subjective and computationally expensive aspect of the verification process, we have developed a new tool for evaluating climate consistency. Because an ensemble of simulations allows us to gauge the natural variability of the model's climate, our new tool uses an ensemble approach for consistency testing. In particular, an ensemble of CESM climate runs is created, from which we obtain a statistical distribution that can be used to determine whether a new climate run is statistically distinguishable from the original ensemble. The CESM ensemble consistency test, referred to as CESM-ECT, is objective in nature and accessible to CESM developers and users. The tool has proven its utility in detecting errors in software and hardware environments and providing rapid feedback to model developers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Determining the tilt of the Raman laser beam using an optical method for atom gravimeters

The tilt of a Raman laser beam is a major systematic error in precision gravity measurement using atom interferometry. The conventional approach to evaluating this tilt error involves modulating the direction of the Raman laser beam and conducting time-consuming gravity measurements to identify the error minimum. In this work, we demonstrate a method to expediently determine the tilt of the Raman laser beam by transforming the tilt angle measurement into characterization of parallelism, which integrates the optical method of aligning the laser direction, commonly used in freely falling corner-cube gravimeters, into an atom gravimeter. A position-sensing detector (PSD) is utilized to quantitatively characterize the parallelism between the test beam and the reference beam, thus measuring the tilt precisely and rapidly. After carefully positioning the PSD and calibrating the relationship between the distance measured by the PSD and the tilt angle measured by the tiltmeter, we achieved a statistical uncertainty of less than 30 µrad in the tilt measurement. Furthermore, we compared the results obtained through this optical method with those from the conventional tilt modulation method for gravity measurement. The comparison validates that our optical method can achieve tilt determination with an accuracy level of better than 200 µrad, corresponding to a systematic error of 20 µGal in g measurement. This work has practical implications for real-world applications of atom gravimeters.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Accuracy, Bias, and Improvements in Mapping Crops and Cropland across the United States Using the USDA Cropland Data Layer

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Cropland Data Layer (CDL) is a 30 m resolution crop-specific land cover map produced annually to assess crops and cropland area across the conterminous United States. Despite its prominent use and value for monitoring agricultural land use/land cover (LULC), there remains substantial uncertainty surrounding the CDLs’ performance, particularly in applications measuring LULC at national scales, within aggregated classes, or changes across years. To fill this gap, we used state- and land cover class-specific accuracy statistics from the USDA from 2008 to 2016 to comprehensively characterize the performance of the CDL across space and time. We estimated nationwide area-weighted accuracies for the CDL for specific crops as well as for the aggregated classes of cropland and non-cropland. We also derived and reported new metrics of superclass accuracy and within-domain error rates, which help to quantify and differentiate the efficacy of mapping aggregated land use classes (e.g., cropland) among constituent subclasses (i.e., specific crops). We show that aggregate classes embody drastically higher accuracies, such that the CDL correctly identifies cropland from the user’s perspective 97% of the time or greater for all years since nationwide coverage began in 2008. We also quantified the mapping biases of specific crops throughout time and used these data to generate independent bias-adjusted crop area estimates, which may complement other USDA survey- and census-based crop statistics. Our overall findings demonstrate that the CDLs provide highly accurate annual measures of crops and cropland areas, and when used appropriately, are an indispensable tool for monitoring changes to agricultural landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigation of 3D printed lightweight hybrid composites via theoretical modeling and machine learning

Hybrid composites combine two or more different fillers to achieve multifunctional or advanced material properties, such as lightweight and enhanced mechanical properties. The properties of the composites significantly depend on their microstructures, which can be tailored via advanced 3D printing processes. Understanding the process-structure-property relationships is critical to enable the design and engineering of novel hybrid composites for applications in aerospace, automotive, and protective coatings. Here, for this work, we develop 3D printable and lightweight hybrid composites and leverage the conventional design of experiments, a theoretical hybrid model, and an image-driven machine learning (ML) method to investigate their mechanical behaviors. The hybrid composites are formulated with elastomer matrix, microfillers, and thin-shell particles, enabling a significant degree of design freedom of microstructures with densities and mechanical properties varying up to 70% and 91%, respectively. Our statistical analysis indicates that the 3D printing path direction and the microfibers fraction are dominating process parameters with contribution percentages of 45.3% and 57.7% on the specific stiffness and strength, respectively. A hybrid mechanics model is developed based on a simple Weibull distribution function and classical single-filler models to effectively capture the variations in mechanical properties, however, it overestimates the values due to its statistical constraints and idealization of experimental uncertainty. The image-driven ML model leverages the microscale images directly without losing the structural details, shows more accurate predictions with experimental data, and has 48.6% lower root mean square error than the theoretical model.

3D printing↗

Geometry and growth contributions to cosmic shear observables

We explore the sensitivity of weak-lensing observables to the expansion history of the Universe and to the growth of cosmic structures, as well as the relative contribution of both effects to constraining cosmological parameters. We utilize ray-tracing dark-matter-only N-body simulations and validate our technique by comparing our results for the convergence power spectrum with analytic results from past studies. We then extend our analysis to non-Gaussian observables which cannot be easily treated analytically. We study the convergence (equilateral) bispectrum and two topological observables, lensing peaks and Minkowski functionals, focusing on their sensitivity to the matter density Ω m and the dark energy equation of state w. We find that a cancellation between the geometry and growth effects is a common feature for all observables and exists at the map level. It weakens the overall sensitivity by factors of up to 3 and 1.5 for w and Ω m , respectively, with the bispectrum worst affected. However, combining geometry and growth information alleviates the degeneracy between Ω m and w from either effect alone. As a result, the magnitudes of marginalized errors remain similar to those obtained from growth-only effects, but with the correlation between the two parameters switching sign. Furthermore, these results shed light on the origin of the cosmology sensitivity of non-Gaussian statistics and should be useful in optimizing combinations of observables.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Framework for the Evolution of Heuristics in Advanced Manufacturing

Here, in this study, we work toward addressing a knowledge gap in understanding how heuristics are developed, retrieved, employed, and modified by designers. Having a better awareness of one’s own set of heuristics can be beneficial for relaying to other team members, improving a team’s training processes, and aiding others on their path to design expertise. The ability to understand and justify the use of a heuristic should lead to more effective decision-making in systems design. To do this, the heuristics and their characteristics must be extracted using a repeatable scientific research methodology. This study describes a unique extraction and characterization process compared to prior literature. It includes some of the first work towards documenting heuristics for both designers and operators in a hybrid manufacturing setting. Eight participants performed a series of two design journals, two interviews, and one survey. Heuristics were extracted and refined between each method and then verified by participants in the survey. The surveys produced novel statistically significant findings in regard to heuristic characterizations, impacting how participants view how often a heuristic is used, the reliability of the heuristic, and the evolution of the heuristic. Lastly, an alternate perspective of heuristics as an error management bias is highlighted and discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

In aqua vivo EPID dosimetry

Purpose: At the Netherlands Cancer Institute-Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital in vivo dosimetry using an electronic portal imaging device (EPID) has been implemented for almost all high-energy photon treatments of cancer with curative intent. Lung cancer treatments were initially excluded, because the original back-projection dose-reconstruction algorithm uses water-based scatter-correction kernels and therefore does not account for tissue inhomogeneities accurately. The aim of this study was to test a new method, in aqua vivo EPID dosimetry, for fast dose verification of lung cancer irradiations during actual patient treatment. Methods: The key feature of our method is the dose reconstruction in the patient from EPID images, obtained during the actual treatment, whereby the images have been converted to a situation as if the patient consisted entirely of water; hence, the method is termed in aqua vivo. This is done by multiplying the measured in vivo EPID image with the ratio of two digitally reconstructed transmission images for the unit-density and inhomogeneous tissue situation. For dose verification, a comparison is made with the calculated dose distribution with the inhomogeneity correction switched off. IMRT treatment verification is performed for each beam in 2D using a 2D {gamma} evaluation, while for the verification of volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) treatments in 3D a 3D {gamma} evaluation is applied using the same parameters (3%, 3 mm). The method was tested using two inhomogeneous phantoms simulating a tumor in lung and measuring its sensitivity for patient positioning errors. Subsequently five IMRT and five VMAT clinical lung cancer treatments were investigated, using both the conventional back-projection algorithm and the in aqua vivo method. The verification results of the in aqua vivo method were statistically analyzed for 751 lung cancer patients treated with IMRT and 50 lung cancer patients treated with VMAT. Results: The improvements by applying the in aqua vivo approach are considerable. The percentage of {gamma} values {<=}1 increased on average from 66.2% to 93.1% and from 43.6% to 97.5% for the IMRT and VMAT cases, respectively. The corresponding mean {gamma} value decreased from 0.99 to 0.43 for the IMRT cases and from 1.71 to 0.40 for the VMAT cases, which is similar to the accepted clinical values for the verification of IMRT treatments of prostate, rectum, and head-and-neck cancers. The deviation between the reconstructed and planned dose at the isocenter diminished on average from 5.3% to 0.5% for the VMAT patients and was almost the same, within 1%, for the IMRT cases. The in aqua vivo verification results for IMRT and VMAT treatments of a large group of patients had a mean {gamma} of approximately 0.5, a percentage of {gamma} values {<=}1 larger than 89%, and a difference of the isocenter dose value less than 1%. Conclusions: With the in aqua vivo approach for the verification of lung cancer treatments (IMRT and VMAT), we can achieve results with the same accuracy as obtained during in vivo EPID dosimetry of sites without large inhomogeneities.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Mammographic quantitative image analysis and biologic image composition for breast lesion characterization and classification

Purpose: To investigate whether biologic image composition of mammographic lesions can improve upon existing mammographic quantitative image analysis (QIA) in estimating the probability of malignancy. Methods: The study population consisted of 45 breast lesions imaged with dual-energy mammography prior to breast biopsy with final diagnosis resulting in 10 invasive ductal carcinomas, 5 ductal carcinomain situ, 11 fibroadenomas, and 19 other benign diagnoses. Analysis was threefold: (1) The raw low-energy mammographic images were analyzed with an established in-house QIA method, “QIA alone,” (2) the three-compartment breast (3CB) composition measure—derived from the dual-energy mammography—of water, lipid, and protein thickness were assessed, “3CB alone”, and (3) information from QIA and 3CB was combined, “QIA + 3CB.” Analysis was initiated from radiologist-indicated lesion centers and was otherwise fully automated. Steps of the QIA and 3CB methods were lesion segmentation, characterization, and subsequent classification for malignancy in leave-one-case-out cross-validation. Performance assessment included box plots, Bland–Altman plots, and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. Results: The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for distinguishing between benign and malignant lesions (invasive and DCIS) was 0.81 (standard error 0.07) for the “QIA alone” method, 0.72 (0.07) for “3CB alone” method, and 0.86 (0.04) for “QIA+3CB” combined. The difference in AUC was 0.043 between “QIA + 3CB” and “QIA alone” but failed to reach statistical significance (95% confidence interval [–0.17 to + 0.26]). Conclusions: In this pilot study analyzing the new 3CB imaging modality, knowledge of the composition of breast lesions and their periphery appeared additive in combination with existing mammographic QIA methods for the distinction between different benign and malignant lesion types.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗