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At least 1,333 records · Page 74

THE ABSOLUTE MAGNITUDE OF RRc VARIABLES FROM STATISTICAL PARALLAX

We present the first definitive measurement of the absolute magnitude of RR Lyrae c-type variable stars (RRc) determined purely from statistical parallax. We use a sample of 242 RRc variables selected from the All Sky Automated Survey for which high-quality light curves, photometry, and proper motions are available. We obtain high-resolution echelle spectra for these objects to determine radial velocities and abundances as part of the Carnegie RR Lyrae Survey. We find that M{sub V,RRc} = 0.59 ± 0.10 at a mean metallicity of [Fe/H] = –1.59. This is to be compared with previous estimates for RRab stars (M{sub V,RRab} = 0.76 ± 0.12) and the only direct measurement of an RRc absolute magnitude (RZ Cephei, M{sub V,RRc} = 0.27 ± 0.17). We find the bulk velocity of the halo relative to the Sun to be (W{sub π}, W{sub θ}, W{sub z} ) = (12.0, –209.9, 3.0) km s{sup –1} in the radial, rotational, and vertical directions with dispersions (σ{sub W{sub π}},σ{sub W{sub θ}},σ{sub W{sub z}}) = (150.4, 106.1, 96.0) km s{sup -1}. For the disk, we find (W{sub π}, W{sub θ}, W{sub z} ) = (13.0, –42.0, –27.3) km s{sup –1} relative to the Sun with dispersions (σ{sub W{sub π}},σ{sub W{sub θ}},σ{sub W{sub z}}) = (67.7,59.2,54.9) km s{sup -1}. Finally, as a byproduct of our statistical framework, we are able to demonstrate that UCAC2 proper-motion errors are significantly overestimated as verified by UCAC4.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cyber-Attack Detection for Active Neutral Point Clamped (ANPC) Photovoltaic (PV) Converter using Kalman Filter

With the upgrading of communication technology, cyber threats to power converters are increasing. In this paper, a model-based cyber-attack detection methodology is proposed for the interleaved Active neutral point clamped (ANPC) Photovoltaic (PV) converter. The proposed methodology identifies cyber-attacks using two estimations based on the Kalman filter and the state-space model of the ANPC PV converter. The residual between the two estimations is analyzed from a statistical perspective. Based on the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) Control Chart, the standard errors shift of the residual is used to identify cyber-attacks. Besides, to validate the feasibility of the proposed methodology, several conditions are considered in the simulation, including white noise in the sensor, irradiance variation, and cyber-attacks in the PV converter. Furthermore, the simulation result demonstrates the proposed method can identify cyber-attacks in the ANPC PV converter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Real-time catheter tracking for high-dose-rate prostate brachytherapy using an electromagnetic 3D-guidance device: A preliminary performance study

Purpose: In order to increase the accuracy and speed of catheter reconstruction in a high-dose-rate (HDR) prostate implant procedure, an automatic tracking system has been developed using an electromagnetic (EM) device (trakSTAR, Ascension Technology, VT). The performance of the system, including the accuracy and noise level with various tracking parameters and conditions, were investigated. Methods: A direct current (dc) EM transmitter (midrange model) and a sensor with diameter of 1.3 mm (Model 130) were used in the trakSTAR system for tracking catheter position during HDR prostate brachytherapy. Localization accuracy was assessed under both static and dynamic analyses conditions. For the static analysis, a calibration phantom was used to investigate error dependency on operating room (OR) table height (bottom vs midposition vs top), sensor position (distal tip of catheter vs connector end of catheter), direction [left-right (LR) vs anterior-posterior (AP) vs superior-inferior (SI)], sampling frequency (40 vs 80 vs 120 Hz), and interference from OR equipment (present vs absent). The mean and standard deviation of the localization offset in each direction and the corresponding error vectors were calculated. For dynamic analysis, the paths of five straight catheters were tracked to study the effects of directions, sampling frequency, and interference of EM field. Statistical analysis was conducted to compare the results in different configurations. Results: When interference was present in the static analysis, the error vectors were significantly higher at the top table position (3.3 {+-} 1.3 vs 1.8 {+-} 0.9 mm at bottom and 1.7 {+-} 1.0 mm at middle, p < 0.001), at catheter end position (3.1 {+-} 1.1 vs 1.4 {+-} 0.7 mm at the tip position, p < 0.001), and at 40 Hz sampling frequency (2.6 {+-} 1.1 vs 2.4 {+-} 1.5 mm at 80 Hz and 1.8 {+-} 1.1 at 160 Hz, p < 0.001). So did the mean offset errors in the LR direction (-1.7 {+-} 1.4 vs 0.4 {+-} 0.5 mm in AP and 0.8 {+-} 0.8 mm in SI directions, p < 0.001). The error vectors were significantly higher with surrounding interference (2.2 {+-} 1.3 mm) vs without interference (1.0 {+-} 0.7 mm, p < 0.001). An accuracy of 1.6 {+-} 0.2 mm can be reached when using optimum configuration (160 Hz at middle table position). When interference was present in the dynamic tracking, the mean tracking errors in LR direction (1.4 {+-} 0.5 mm) was significantly higher than that in AP direction (0.3 {+-} 0.2 mm, p < 0.001). So did the mean vector errors at 40 Hz (2.1 {+-} 0.2 mm vs 1.3 {+-} 0.2 mm at 80 Hz and 0.9 {+-} 0.2 mm at 160 Hz, p < 0.05). However, when interference was absent, they were comparable in the both directions and at all sampling frequencies. An accuracy of 0.9 {+-} 0.2 mm was obtained for the dynamic tracking when using optimum configuration. Conclusions: The performance of an EM tracking system depends highly on the system configuration and surrounding environment. The accuracy of EM tracking for catheter reconstruction in a prostate HDR brachytherapy procedure can be improved by reducing interference from surrounding equipment, decreasing distance from transmitter to tracking area, and choosing appropriated sampling frequency. A calibration scheme is needed to further reduce the tracking error when the interference is high.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

NovaDemux v39.07

This program is a sequence demultiplexer intended primarily for, but not limited to, Illumina sequencing machines. Typically, multiple experiments ("libraries") are pooled together and sequenced at once, with genetic molecules of these libraries tagged with a synthetic DNA "barcode". After sequencing, the data is demultiplexed into one file per library based on the barcode. However, errors in barcode reading cause misassignment and decrease yield. NovaDemux uses advanced statistical methods to maximize yield while minimizing misassignment compared to existing software.

Bushnell, Brian [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora↗

Analysis of Loss-of-Offsite-Power Events 1997-2015

Loss of offsite power (LOOP) can have a major negative impact on a power plant’s ability to achieve and maintain safe shutdown conditions. LOOP event frequencies and times required for subsequent restoration of offsite power are important inputs to plant probabilistic risk assessments. This report presents a statistical and engineering analysis of LOOP frequencies and durations at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience during calendar years 1997 through 2015. LOOP events during critical operation that do not result in a reactor trip, are not included. Frequencies and durations were determined for four event categories: plant-centered, switchyard-centered, grid-related, and weather-related. Emergency diesel generator reliability is also considered (failure to start, failure to load and run, and failure to run more than 1 hour). There is an adverse trend in LOOP durations. The previously reported adverse trend in LOOP frequency was not statistically significant for 2006-2015. Grid-related LOOPs happen predominantly in the summer. Switchyard-centered LOOPs happen predominantly in winter and spring. Plant-centered and weather-related LOOPs do not show statistically significant seasonality. The engineering analysis of LOOP data shows that human errors have been much less frequent since 1997 than in the 1986 -1996 time period.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Analysis of Loss-of-Offsite-Power Events: 1987-2016

Loss of offsite power (LOOP) can have a major negative impact on a power plant’s ability to achieve and maintain safe shutdown conditions. LOOP event frequencies and times required for subsequent restoration of offsite power are important inputs to plant probabilistic risk assessments. This report presents a statistical and engineering analysis of LOOP frequencies and durations at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience during calendar years 1987 through 2016. LOOP events during critical operation that do not result in a reactor trip are not included. Frequencies and durations were determined for four event categories: plant-centered, switchyard-centered, grid-related, and weather-related. Emergency diesel generator reliability is also considered (failure to start, failure to load and run, and failure to run more than 1 hour). An adverse trend in overall LOOP frequency is identified. An adverse trend in LOOP durations is identified. Plant-centered and weather-related LOOP events do not show statistically significant seasonality. The engineering analysis of LOOP data shows that human errors have been much less frequent since 1997 than in the 1986–1996 time period.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Analysis of Loss-of-Offsite-Power Events 1987-2018

Loss of offsite power (LOOP) can have a major negative impact on a power plant’s ability to achieve and maintain safe shutdown conditions. LOOP event frequencies and times required for subsequent restoration of offsite power are important inputs to plant probabilistic risk assessments. This report presents a statistical and engineering analysis of LOOP frequencies and durations at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience during calendar years 1987 through 2018. LOOP events during critical operation that do not result in a reactor trip are not included. Frequencies and durations were determined for four event categories: plant-centered, switchyard-centered, grid-related, and weather-related. No significant trends in critical operation LOOP frequencies over the most recent 10-year period are identified. Adverse trends in LOOP durations are identified for switchyard-centered and grid-related LOOPs, as well as overall LOOPs during critical operation and overall LOOPs during shutdown operation. Both grid-related and weather-related LOOP events are found to show statistically significant seasonality. The engineering analysis of LOOP data shows that human errors have been much less frequent since 1997 than in the 1987–1996 time period.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Expansion of Machine-Learning Method for Classifying Neutron Resonances

The understanding of astrophysics processes and the performance of nuclear reactors and other nuclear systems depend on a precise description of the neutron interaction cross sections for materials and nuclei present in these environments. At low neutron energies, these cross sections exhibit resonance structure represented by sharp enhancements when the neutron energy is sufficiently close to excited levels in a compound nucleus. Such resonances can be characterized by their quantum numbers relative to angular momenta, which are often deduced in an ad hoc and irreproducible manner from the shape of the cross sections. The correct assignment of the quantum numbers of neutron resonances is therefore of paramount importance. To address this we have developed a machine-learning method to automate the identification and correction of these spin assignments. The algorithm is trained from simulated data, generated from statistical properties of resonance data for a given nucleus, to mimic the errors found in real data. In this project we describe five independent approaches to further develop and expand the applicability of the machine-learning spin classifier: i) Feature impact; ii) Integration with the Atlas; iii) Training optimization; iv) Spacings systematics; and v) Validation with polarized data. The premises, methods, results, and future perspectives are discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Galaxy strategy for LIGO-Virgo gravitational wave counterpart searches

In this work we continue a line of inquiry begun in Kanner et al. which detailed a strategy for utilizing telescopes with narrow fields of view, such as the Swift X-ray Telescope (XRT), to localize gravitational wave (GW) triggers from LIGO/Virgo. If one considers the brightest galaxies that produce ∼50% of the light, then the number of galaxies inside typical GW error boxes will be several tens. We have found that this result applies both in the early years of Advanced LIGO when the range was small and the error boxes were large, and will apply in the later years when the error boxes will be small and the range will be large. This strategy has the beneficial property of reducing the number of telescope pointings by a factor of 10–100 compared with tiling the entire error box. Additional galaxy count reduction will come from a GW rapid distance estimate which will restrict the radial slice in search volume. Combining the bright galaxy strategy with a convolution based on anticipated GW localizations, we find that the searches can be restricted to about 18 ± 5 galaxies for 2015, about 23 ± 4 for 2017, and about 11 ± 2 for 2020. This assumes a distance localization at the putative neutron star–neutron star merger range μ for each target year, and these totals are integrated out to the range. Integrating out to the horizon would roughly double the totals. For localizations with r≪μ the totals would decrease. The galaxy strategy we present in this work will enable numerous sensitive optical and XRTs with small fields of view to participate meaningfully in searches wherein the prospects for rapidly fading afterglow place a premium on a fast response time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Characteristics of the IBEX Ribbon and Their Implications for a Source Region Outside the Heliopause

This paper presents a comprehensive exploration of the Interstellar Boundary Explorer energetic neutral atom (ENA) ribbon, focusing on its spatial and temporal variations over 14 yr. Methodological advancements, including a refined map modeling procedure and a new ribbon separation technique with appropriate error propagation, enable a detailed investigation of the ribbon’s features. Utilizing statistically robust metrics, this study reveals details of the ribbon across energy and time. Key findings include energy- and time-dependent variations in flux, angular radius, ribbon profile width, and higher moments. By applying these metrics, we reveal new complexity to the evolution of the ribbon over time, highlighting the nuanced relationship between it and the solar wind. Furthermore, the study examines for the first time the ribbon as it passes through the starboard/heliotail region (Lon EC 120°–180°), revealing properties distinct from other portions of the ribbon. The analysis uncovers an anticorrelation between ribbon width and flux, which provides quantitative support for a multisource ribbon created by a combination of solar wind neutrals that generate a spatiall narrow ribbon component and heliosheath neutrals giving rise to a broad component. Finally, differences in the temporal evolution of the ENA flux at different energies provide additional support that the location of the ribbon source region is beyond the heliopause.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modeling laser velocimeter signals as triply stochastic Poisson processes

Previous models of laser Doppler velocimeter (LDV) systems have not adequately described dual-scatter signals in a manner useful for analysis and simulation of low-level photon-limited signals. At low photon rates, an LDV signal at the output of a photomultiplier tube is a compound nonhomogeneous filtered Poisson process, whose intensity function is another (slower) Poisson process with the nonstationary rate and frequency parameters controlled by a random flow (slowest) process. In the present paper, generalized Poisson shot noise models are developed for low-level LDV signals. Theoretical results useful in detection error analysis and simulation are presented, along with measurements of burst amplitude statistics. Computer generated simulations illustrate the difference between Gaussian and Poisson models of low-level signals.

Mayo, W. T., Jr.↗

Motion-base simulator results of advanced supersonic transport handling qualities with active controls

Handling qualities of the unaugmented advanced supersonic transport (AST) are deficient in the low-speed, landing approach regime. Consequently, improvement in handling with active control augmentation systems has been achieved using implicit model-following techniques. Extensive fixed-based simulator evaluations were used to validate these systems prior to tests with full motion and visual capabilities on a six-axis motion-base simulator (MBS). These tests compared the handling qualities of the unaugmented AST with several augmented configurations to ascertain the effectiveness of these systems. Cooper-Harper ratings, tracking errors, and control activity data from the MBS tests have been analyzed statistically. The results show the fully augmented AST handling qualities have been improved to an acceptable level.

Feather, J. B.↗

Evaluation of the synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

Koch, S. E.↗

An investigation of motion base cueing and G-seat cueing on pilot performance in a simulator

The effect of G-seat cueing (GSC) and motion-base cueing (MBC) on performance of a pursuit-tracking task is studied using the visual motion simulator (VMS) at Langley Research Center. The G-seat, the six-degree-of-freedom synergistic platform motion system, the visual display, the cockpit hardware, and the F-16 aircraft mathematical model are characterized. Each of 8 active F-15 pilots performed the 2-min-43-sec task 10 times for each experimental mode: no cue, GSC, MBC, and GSC + MBC; the results were analyzed statistically in terms of the RMS values of vertical and lateral tracking error. It is shown that lateral error is significantly reduced by either GSC or MBC, and that the combination of cues produces a further, significant decrease. Vertical error is significantly decreased by GSC with or without MBC, whereas MBC effects vary for different pilots. The pattern of these findings is roughly duplicated in measurements of stick force applied for roll and pitch correction.

Mckissick, B. T.↗

The measurement of the earth's radiation budget as a problem in information theory - A tool for the rational design of earth observing systems

The measurement of the earth's radiation budget has been chosen to illustrate the technique of objective system design. The measurement process is an approximately linear transformation of the original field of radiant exitances, so that linear statistical techniques may be employed. The combination of variability, measurement strategy, and error propagation is presently made with the help of information theory, as suggested by Kondratyev et al. (1975) and Peckham (1974). Covariance matrices furnish the quantitative statement of field variability.

Barkstrom, B. R.↗

Monitoring solar-type stars for luminosity variations

Since 1984, researchers have made more than 1500 differential photometric b (471 nm) and y (551 nm) measurements of three dozen solar-like lower main sequence stars whose chromospheric activity was previosly studied by O. C. Wilson. Here, researchers describe their methodology and the statistical tests used to distinguish intrinsic stellar variability from observational and instrument errors. The incidence of detected variability among the program and comparison stars is summarized. Among the 100 plus pairs of stars measured differentially, only a dozen were found that were unusually constant, with peak-to-peak amplitudes of seasonal mean brightness smaller than 0.3 percent (0.003 mag) over a two-to-three-year interval.

Lockwood, G. W.↗

Anisotropy of thermal infrared exitance in sunflower canopies

Anisotropy of thermal infrared exitance above and within a relatively closed fully irrigated sunflower canopy is detailed. Azimuthal variation in thermal infrared exitance above canopies was weakly (statistically) related to solar position and was comparable to or larger than errors in satellite-based canopy estimates. Anisotropy within canopies was significantly lower and decreased with canopy closure and depth into the canopy. Measured azimuthal isotropy within canopies supports the use of this assumption in radiative transfer models. Significant differences in canopy temperature measurements were found depending upon whether the instruments were within or above the canopy. These differences could produce errors of 20-35 percent in latent energy estimates during periods of high evapotranspiration (ET) and greater errors in periods of restricted ET.

Tha Paw u, Kyaw↗

An efficient system for reliably transmitting image and video data over low bit rate noisy channels

This research project is intended to develop an efficient system for reliably transmitting image and video data over low bit rate noisy channels. The basic ideas behind the proposed approach are the following: employ statistical-based image modeling to facilitate pre- and post-processing and error detection, use spare redundancy that the source compression did not remove to add robustness, and implement coded modulation to improve bandwidth efficiency and noise rejection. Over the last six months, progress has been made on various aspects of the project. Through our studies of the integrated system, a list-based iterative Trellis decoder has been developed. The decoder accepts feedback from a post-processor which can detect channel errors in the reconstructed image. The error detection is based on the Huber Markov random field image model for the compressed image. The compression scheme used here is that of JPEG (Joint Photographic Experts Group). Experiments were performed and the results are quite encouraging. The principal ideas here are extendable to other compression techniques. In addition, research was also performed on unequal error protection channel coding, subband vector quantization as a means of source coding, and post processing for reducing coding artifacts. Our studies on unequal error protection (UEP) coding for image transmission focused on examining the properties of the UEP capabilities of convolutional codes. The investigation of subband vector quantization employed a wavelet transform with special emphasis on exploiting interband redundancy. The outcome of this investigation included the development of three algorithms for subband vector quantization. The reduction of transform coding artifacts was studied with the aid of a non-Gaussian Markov random field model. This results in improved image decompression. These studies are summarized and the technical papers included in the appendices.

Costello, Daniel J., Jr.↗