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At least 1,333 records · Page 74

Projection pursuit adaptation on polynomial chaos expansions

Here, the present work addresses the issue of accurate stochastic approximations in high-dimensional parametric space using tools from uncertainty quantification (UQ). The basis adaptation method and its accelerated algorithm in polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) were recently proposed to construct low-dimensional approximations adapted to specific quantities of interest (QoI). The present paper addresses one difficulty with these adaptations, namely their reliance on quadrature point sampling, which limits the reusability of potentially expensive samples. Projection pursuit (PP) is a statistical tool to find the “interesting” projections in high-dimensional data and thus bypass the curse-of-dimensionality. In the present work, we combine the fundamental ideas of basis adaptation and projection pursuit regression (PPR) to propose a novel method to simultaneously learn the optimal low-dimensional spaces and PCE representation from given data. While this projection pursuit adaptation (PPA) can be entirely data-driven, the constructed approximation exhibits mean-square convergence to the solution of an underlying governing equation and thus captures the supports and probability distributions associated with the physics constraints. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a borehole problem and a structural dynamics problem, demonstrating the versatility of the method and its ability to discover low-dimensional manifolds with high accuracy with limited data. In addition, the method can learn surrogate models for different quantities of interest while reusing the same data set.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sparse expansions of multicomponent oxide configuration energy using coherency and redundancy

We report that compressed sensing has become a widely accepted paradigm to construct high dimensional cluster expansion models used for statistical mechanical studies of atomic configuration in complex multicomponent crystalline materials. However, strict sampling requirements necessary to obtain minimal coherence measurements for compressed sensing to guarantee accurate estimation of model parameters are difficult and in some cases impossible to satisfy due to the inability of physical systems to access certain configurations. Nevertheless, the dependence of energy on atomic configuration can still be adequately learned without these strict requirements by using compressed sensing by way of coherent measurements using redundant function sets known as frames. We develop a particular frame constructed from the union of all occupancy-based cluster expansion basis sets. We illustrate how using this highly redundant frame yields sparse expansions of the configuration energy of complex oxide materials that are competitive and often surpass the prediction accuracy and sparsity of models obtained from standard cluster expansions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

OperonSEQer: A set of machine-learning algorithms with threshold voting for detection of operon pairs using short-read RNA-sequencing data

Operon prediction in prokaryotes is critical not only for understanding the regulation of endogenous gene expression, but also for exogenous targeting of genes using newly developed tools such as CRISPR-based gene modulation. A number of methods have used transcriptomics data to predict operons, based on the premise that contiguous genes in an operon will be expressed at similar levels. While promising results have been observed using these methods, most of them do not address uncertainty caused by technical variability between experiments, which is especially relevant when the amount of data available is small. In addition, many existing methods do not provide the flexibility to determine the stringency with which genes should be evaluated for being in an operon pair. We present OperonSEQer, a set of machine learning algorithms that uses the statistic and p-value from a non-parametric analysis of variance test (Kruskal-Wallis) to determine the likelihood that two adjacent genes are expressed from the same RNA molecule. We implement a voting system to allow users to choose the stringency of operon calls depending on whether your priority is high recall or high specificity. In addition, we provide the code so that users can retrain the algorithm and re-establish hyperparameters based on any data they choose, allowing for this method to be expanded as additional data is generated. We show that our approach detects operon pairs that are missed by current methods by comparing our predictions to publicly available long-read sequencing data. OperonSEQer therefore improves on existing methods in terms of accuracy, flexibility, and adaptability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating noise levels of remotely sensed measurements from satellites using spatial structure analysis

A technique is presented whereby the noise level of satellite measurements of the atmosphere and earth can be estimated. The technique analyzes a spatial array of data measured by a satellite instrument. A minimum of about 200 satellite measurements is required, preferably in a regular pattern. Statistical structure analysis is used to describe a combination of the mean gradient and noise in the data. The noise level is then estimated by separating out the gradient information and leaving only the noise. Results are presented for four satellite sounding instruments, and effective blackbody or brightness temperature noise levels were compared to prelaunch specifications or inflight calibrations for each instrument. Comparisons showed that in the absence of cloud-contaminated measurements (in the case of infrared data) and away from the highly variable ground surface, the noise level of various satellite instruments can be obtained without the need for calibration data. The noise levels imply how much spatial averaging is possible, without smearing the detected geophysical gradient, and how much is necessary, to meet the absolute signal accuracy requirements for the intended use of the satellite measurements.

Hillger, Donald W.↗

The updated statistical inversion technique to the evaluation of Umkehr observations

In the present study the standard retrieval Umkehr method to estimate the vertical distribution of ozone was updated using a statistical approach to the mathematical inversion scheme. The vertical ozone profile covariance matrix was used as a priori information for the inverse problem. A new method of the ozonesonde data organization according to air mass types helped to improve the covariance matrix quality. A retrieval method was developed using eigenvector technique. An optimal vertical ozone profile resolution was determined from the mathematical inversion scheme analysis based on the same technique. The sun radiation transfer was accounted for multiple scattering and atmospheric sphericity in this calculation. The retrievals using actual Umkehr Dobson spectrophotometer observations were also performed to provide the comparison of the standard and updated methods with concurrent ozone sound data at Boulder U.S. The comparison has revealed that the present method has some advantages in both resolution and accuracy, as compared to the standard one, especially for the atmospheric layers below ozone maximum.

Frolov, Alexander D.↗

LES on unstructured deforming meshes: Towards reciprocating IC engines

A variable explicit/implicit characteristics-based advection scheme that is second-order accurate in space and time has been developed recently for unstructured deforming meshes (O'Rourke & Sahota 1996a). To explore the suitability of this methodology for Large-Eddy Simulation (LES), three subgrid-scale turbulence models have been implemented in the CHAD CFD code (O'Rourke & Sahota 1996b): a constant-coefficient Smagorinsky model, a dynamic Smagorinsky model for flows having one or more directions of statistical homogeneity, and a Lagrangian dynamic Smagorinsky model for flows having no spatial or temporal homogeneity (Meneveau et al. 1996). Computations have been made for three canonical flows, progressing towards the intended application of in-cylinder flow in a reciprocating engine. Grid sizes were selected to be comparable to the coarsest meshes used in earlier spectral LES studies. Quantitative results are reported for decaying homogeneous isotropic turbulence, and for a planar channel flow. Computations are compared to experimental measurements, to Direct-Numerical Simulation (DNS) data, and to Rapid-Distortion Theory (RDT) where appropriate. Generally satisfactory evolution of first and second moments is found on these coarse meshes; deviations are attributed to insufficient mesh resolution. Issues include mesh resolution and computational requirements for a specified level of accuracy, analytic characterization of the filtering implied by the numerical method, wall treatment, and inflow boundary conditions. To resolve these issues, finer-mesh simulations and computations of a simplified axisymmetric reciprocating piston-cylinder assembly are in progress.

Haworth, D. C.↗

Microscopic theory of angular momentum distributions across the full range of fission fragments

Modern nuclear theory provides qualitative insights into the fundamental mechanisms of nuclear fission and is increasingly capable of making reliable quantitative predictions. Most quantities of interest pertain to the primary fission fragments, whose subsequent decay is typically modeled using statistical reaction models. Consequently, a key objective of fission theory is to inform these models by predicting the initial conditions of the primary fragments. Here, in this work, we employ a framework that combines joint angular momentum and particle number projection with time-dependent configuration mixing to calculate the angular momentum distributions of primary fragments. Focusing on the benchmark cases of neutron-induced fission of 235 U and 239 Pu , we predict—for the first time—microscopic angular momentum distributions for all fragments observed in experiments. Our results reveal a pronounced sawtooth pattern in the average angular momentum as a function of fragment mass, consistent with recent measurements. Additionally, we observe substantial variations in angular momentum distributions along isobaric chains, indicating that commonly used empirical formulas lack sufficient accuracy. We also quantify a strong correlation between the angular momentum and the deformation of the fragments at scission, and a weak correlation in the magnitude of the angular momentum between fragment partners. The generated data will enable estimation of the impact of microscopic distributions on fission spectra, paving the way toward fission modeling based on microscopic inputs.

Physics - Nuclear physics and radiation physics↗

Gaussian process hydrodynamics

Abstract We present a Gaussian process (GP) approach, called Gaussian process hydrodynamics (GPH) for approximating the solution to the Euler and Navier-Stokes (NS) equations. Similar to smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH), GPH is a Lagrangian particle-based approach that involves the tracking of a finite number of particles transported by a flow. However, these particles do not represent mollified particles of matter but carry discrete/partial information about the continuous flow. Closure is achieved by placing a divergence-free GP prior ξ on the velocity field and conditioning it on the vorticity at the particle locations. Known physics (e.g., the Richardson cascade and velocity increment power laws) is incorporated into the GP prior by using physics-informed additive kernels. This is equivalent to expressing ξ as a sum of independent GPs ξ l , which we call modes, acting at different scales (each mode ξ l self-activates to represent the formation of eddies at the corresponding scales). This approach enables a quantitative analysis of the Richardson cascade through the analysis of the activation of these modes, and enables us to analyze coarse-grain turbulence statistically rather than deterministically. Because GPH is formulated by using the vorticity equations, it does not require solving a pressure equation. By enforcing incompressibility and fluid-structure boundary conditions through the selection of a kernel, GPH requires significantly fewer particles than SPH. Because GPH has a natural probabilistic interpretation, the numerical results come with uncertainty estimates, enabling their incorporation into an uncertainty quantification (UQ) pipeline and adding/removing particles (quanta of information) in an adapted manner. The proposed approach is suitable for analysis because it inherits the complexity of state-of-the-art solvers for dense kernel matrices and results in a natural definition of turbulence as information loss. Numerical experiments support the importance of selecting physics-informed kernels and illustrate the major impact of such kernels on the accuracy and stability. Because the proposed approach uses a Bayesian interpretation, it naturally enables data assimilation and predictions and estimations by mixing simulation data and experimental data.

Mathematics↗

Towards a Comprehensive Model of Jet Noise Using an Acoustic Analogy and Steady RANS Solutions

An acoustic analogy is developed to predict the noise from jet flows. It contains two source models that independently predict the noise from turbulence and shock wave shear layer interactions. The acoustic analogy is based on the Euler equations and separates the sources from propagation. Propagation effects are taken into account by calculating the vector Green's function of the linearized Euler equations. The sources are modeled following the work of Tam and Auriault, Morris and Boluriaan, and Morris and Miller. A statistical model of the two-point cross-correlation of the velocity fluctuations is used to describe the turbulence. The acoustic analogy attempts to take into account the correct scaling of the sources for a wide range of nozzle pressure and temperature ratios. It does not make assumptions regarding fine- or large-scale turbulent noise sources, self- or shear-noise, or convective amplification. The acoustic analogy is partially informed by three-dimensional steady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes solutions that include the nozzle geometry. The predictions are compared with experiments of jets operating subsonically through supersonically and at unheated and heated temperatures. Predictions generally capture the scaling of both mixing noise and BBSAN for the conditions examined, but some discrepancies remain that are due to the accuracy of the steady RANS turbulence model closure, the equivalent sources, and the use of a simplified vector Green's function solver of the linearized Euler equations.

Miller, Steven A. E.↗

Measuring the Redshift Dependence of The Cosmic Microwave Background Monopole Temperature With Planck Data

We study the capability of Planck data to constrain deviations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) blackbody temperature from adiabatic evolution using the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich anisotropy induced by clusters of galaxies. We consider two types of data sets depending on how the cosmological signal is removed: using a CMB template or using the 217 GHz map. We apply two different statistical estimators, based on the ratio of temperature anisotropies at two different frequencies and on a fit to the spectral variation of the cluster signal with frequency. The ratio method is biased if CMB residuals with amplitude approximately 1 microK or larger are present in the data, while residuals are not so critical for the fit method. To test for systematics, we construct a template from clusters drawn from a hydro-simulation included in the pre-launch Planck Sky Model. We demonstrate that, using a proprietary catalog of X-ray-selected clusters with measured redshifts, electron densities, and X-ray temperatures, we can constrain deviations of adiabatic evolution, measured by the parameter α in the redshift scaling T (z) = T0(1 + z)(sup 1−alpha), with an accuracy of sigma(sub alpha) = 0.011 in the most optimal case and with sigma alpha = 0.018 for a less optimal case. These results represent a factor of 2-3 improvement over similar measurements carried out using quasar spectral lines and a factor 6-20 with respect to earlier results using smaller cluster samples.

cosmic background radiation↗

Carbon Dioxide Removal Measurement, Reporting, and Verification Simulation toolkit (CDR MRVSim) v0.1

CDR MRVSim is a statistical software toolkit for techno-economic analysis of measurement, reporting, and verification of multiple carbon dioxide removal technologies. The current version applies Monte Carlo simulation to existing datasets estimate the cost and uncertainty of measuring the soil organic carbon (SOC) content of agricultural land, accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, using data from field measurements. We are planning to incorporate enhanced rock weathering and other technologies into the software. The current model leverages existing data to characterize underlying variability in soil organic carbon and related parameters, including bulk density, in an agricultural field attempting to increase its SOC. We then simulate baseline and post-intervention "measurement campaigns" in which some number of SOC and bulk density measurements are conducted using a selected technology. This enables estimates of the cost and accuracy of measuring changes in SOC in the simulated field. The primary advantages over similar software are: 1) ability to quantify tradeoffs between cost and uncertainty in MRV across a range of possible MRV approaches 2) focus on guiding development of novel sensors by determining desirable sets of characteristics

Sherwin, Evan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗

Analysis/forecast experiments with a flow-dependent correlation function using FGGE data

The use of a flow-dependent correlation function to improve the accuracy of an optimum interpolation (OI) scheme is examined. The development of the correlation function for the OI analysis scheme used for numerical weather prediction is described. The scheme uses a multivariate surface analysis over the oceans to model the pressure-wind error cross-correlation and it has the ability to use an error correlation function that is flow- and geographically-dependent. A series of four-day data assimilation experiments, conducted from January 5-9, 1979, were used to investigate the effect of the different features of the OI scheme (error correlation) on forecast skill for the barotropic lows and highs. The skill of the OI was compared with that of a successive correlation method (SCM) of analysis. It is observed that the largest difference in the correlation statistics occurred in barotropic and baroclinic lows and highs. The comparison reveals that the OI forecasts were more accurate than the SCM forecasts.

Baker, W. E.↗

A co-kurtosis PCA based dimensionality reduction with nonlinear reconstruction using neural networks

For turbulent reacting flow systems, identification of low-dimensional representations of the thermo-chemical state space is vitally important, primarily to significantly reduce the computational cost of device-scale simulations. Principal component analysis (PCA), and its variants, are a widely employed class of methods. Recently, an alternative technique that focuses on higher-order statistical interactions, co-kurtosis PCA (CoK-PCA), has been shown to effectively provide a low-dimensional representation by capturing the stiff chemical dynamics associated with spatiotemporally localized reaction zones. While its effectiveness has only been demonstrated based on a priori analyses with linear reconstruction, in this work, we employ nonlinear techniques to reconstruct the full thermo-chemical state and evaluate the efficacy of CoK-PCA compared to PCA. Specifically, we combine a CoK-PCA-/PCA-based dimensionality reduction (encoding) with an artificial neural network (ANN) based reconstruction (decoding) and examine, a priori, the reconstruction errors of the thermo-chemical state. In addition, we evaluate the errors in species production rates and heat release rates, which are nonlinear functions of the reconstructed state, as a measure of the overall accuracy of the dimensionality reduction technique. We employ four datasets to assess CoK-PCA/PCA coupled with ANN-based reconstruction: zero-dimensional (homogeneous) reactor for autoignition of an ethylene/air mixture that has conventional single-stage ignition kinetics, a dimethyl ether (DME)/air mixture which has two-stage (low and high temperature) ignition kinetics, a one-dimensional freely propagating premixed ethylene/air laminar flame, and a two-dimensional dataset representing turbulent autoignition of ethanol in a homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) engine. Finally, results from the analyses demonstrate the robustness of the CoK-PCA based low-dimensional manifold with ANN reconstruction in accurately capturing the data, specifically from the reaction zones.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Seasonal Variation of Total Mercury Burden in the American Alligator (Alligator Mississippiensis) at Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (MINWR), Florida

Seasonal variation of mercury (Hg) is not well studied in free-ranging wildlife. Atmospheric deposition patterns of Hg have been studied in detail and have been modeled for both global and specific locations with great accuracy and correlates to environment impact. However, monitoring these trends in wildlife is complicated due to local environmental parameters (e.g., rainfall, humidity, pH, bacterial composition) that can affect the transformation of atmospheric Hg to the biologically available forms. Here, we utilized an abundant and healthy population of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) at Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (MINWR), FL, and assessed Hg burden in whole blood samples over a span of 7 years (2007 2014; n 174) in an effort to assess seasonal variation of total [Hg]. While the majority of this population is assumed healthy, 18 individuals with low body mass indices (BMI, defined in this study) were captured throughout the 7 year sampling period. These individual alligators exhibited [Hg] that were not consistent with the observed overall seasonal [Hg] variation, and were statistically different from the healthy population of alligators. The alligators with low BMI had elevated concentrations of Hg compared to their age/sex/season matched counterparts with normal BMI. Statistically significant differences were found between the winter and spring seasons for animals with normal BMI. The data in this report supports the conclusion that organismal total [Hg] do fluctuate directly with seasonal deposition rates as well as other seasonal environmental parameters, such as average rainfall and prevailing wind direction. This study highlights the unique environment of MINWR to permit annual assessment of apex predators, such as the American alligator, to determine detailed environmental impact of contaminants of concern.

Hg↗

Real World Use Case Evaluation of Radar Retro-reflectors for Autonomous Vehicle Lane Detection Applications

Lane detection plays a critical role in autonomous vehicles for safe and reliable navigation. Lane detection is traditionally accomplished using a camera sensor and computer vision processing. The downside of this traditional technique is that it can be computationally intensive when high quality images at a fast frame rate are used and has reliability issues from occlusion such as, glare, shadows, active road construction, and more. This study addresses these issues by exploring alternative methods for lane detection in specific scenarios caused from road construction-induced lane shift and sun glare. Specifically, a U-Net, a convolutional network used for image segmentation, camera-based lane detection method is compared with a radar-based approach using a new type of sensor previously unused in the autonomous vehicle space: radar retro-reflectors. This evaluation is performed using ground truth data, obtained by measuring the lane positions and transforming them into pixel coordinates. The performance of each method is assessed using the statistical R2 score, indicating the correlation between the detected lane lines and the ground truth. The results show that the U-Net camera-based method exhibits limitations in accurately detecting and aligning the lane lines, particularly in challenging scenarios. However, the radar-based lane detection method demonstrates a strong correlation with the ground truth which implies that the use of this sensor may improve current reliability issues from conventional camera lane detection approach. Furthermore, the study highlights the limitations of the U-Net model for camera lane detection, especially in scenarios with sun glare. This study shows that infrastructure-based radar retro-reflectors can improve autonomous vehicle lane detection reliability. The integration of different sensor modalities and the development of advanced computer vision algorithms are crucial for improving the accuracy, reliability, and energy efficiency of lane detection systems. Addressing these challenges contributes to the advancement of autonomous vehicles and the realization of safer and more efficient transportation systems.

Brown, Nicolas E.↗

Added value of site load measurements in probabilistic lifetime extension: a Lillgrund case study

Site-specific fatigue estimation is an essential part of wind turbine lifetime extension, with various methods depending on data availability. The present study compares probabilistic lifetime extension assessment results for rotor blades with and without load measurements. It also addresses two key questions in such assessments: the applicability of the Frandsen model for estimating waked turbulence under complex and mixed wake conditions and the extrapolation of mid-term data over longer time periods. The case study wind turbine is SWT-2.3-93, located at the edge of the Lillgrund wind farm, situated in the Øresund Strait between Denmark and Sweden. The turbine is extensively instrumented, with 5 years of data available from its supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Although the Frandsen turbulence estimates deviate in a different manner from measurements at below- and above-rated mean wind speeds, the model remains a conservative approach for fatigue load prediction and reliability. In the current case study, the site-specific assessment using strain gauge measurements yields a 33 % higher annual fatigue reliability index after 35 years compared to a scenario based on the Frandsen estimation combined with ambient environmental data and a generic aeroelastic model. The results also demonstrate that the sensitivity of fatigue reliability to load uncertainty is negligible when load measurements are used directly but relatively high when relying on the Frandsen model in combination with a generic aeroelastic model. Overall, the high variability of the lifetime extension in different scenarios of data availability and accuracy shows the importance and added value of high-quality measurements combined with wind-farm-level SCADA and a model updated in real time (digital twins).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

OSSE observations of the Crab pulsar

We present results of the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory (CGRO) Oriented Scintillation Spectrometer Experiment (OSSE) observations of the Crab pulsar, made during MJD 48373-48406 (1991 April 27 - 1991 May 30) and MJD 48798-48804 (1992 June 25 - 1992 July 1). Pulsar light curves and spectra over the approximately 0.05 to 10 MeV range are presented. The arrival time of the gamma-ray peak and the radio peak agree to within 30 microsec which is better than the approximately 300 microsec accuracy of the measurements. The overall pulse phase averaged spectrum in the 0.1 - 10 MeV range is well-fit by a power law of the form 0.05 x (E/0.13 MeV)exp(-(1.99 +/- 0.03)) photons/sq cm/s. The outer-gap model (with gap parameter equal to 0.46) provided to us by Ho agrees with the data to better than 20%. The spectra of the bridge and second peak are slightly harder than the first peak as measured by the hardness ratio (approximately 110 - 220 keV)/(approximately 50 - 105 keV): P1 = 0.54 +/- 0.01, P2 = 0.63 +/- 0.01, bridge = 0.68 +/- 0.03. The phase of the two peaks in the light curve is constant over the 50 - 550 keV range to within the accuracy of the measurements (better than 0.02 in phase). No evidence was found for variability of the light curve on timescales from 2 minutes (less than a factor of 1.8) to 1 year (less than a factor of 1.06), where these are 3 sigma upper limits. However, when we examine the historical database, we find, in agreement with Nolan et al. (1993), that there is evidence for a 13 year variation in the ratio of the intensity of peak 2 to peak 1. We show that if this is interpreted as being due to precession (which changes the relative view of the intrinsic gamma-ray pulse as seen on earth), the variation is consistent with models of neutron star structure. The optical data may be in conflict with the interpretation however. We found no statistically significant lines in the 50 - 550 keV range in the spectrum. The average 3 sigma upper limits in 10(exp -3) photons/sq cm/s for lines at 0.073, 0.078, 0.4, 0.44, 0.511, and 0.545 MeV are 0.3, 0.5, 0.6, 0.5, and 0.1.

Ulmer, M. P.↗

Investigating Response from Attached and Separated Flow Excitations on a Real Launch Vehicle using SEA

Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) response has been fairly well anchored to test observations for Diffuse Acoustic Field (DAF) loading by others. Meanwhile, not many examples can be found in the literature anchoring the SEA vehicle panel response results to Turbulent Boundary Layer (TBL) fluctuating pressure excitations. This deficiency is especially true for supersonic trajectories such as those required by this nation s launch vehicles. Response and excitation data from vehicle flight measurements gathered during the development flight era of the Space Shuttle have been used in a trial to assess the sensitivity of response analysis to certain known and unknown parameters of the flight. This assessment compares vibration response predictions for TBL excitations produced by the SEA tool to flight measurements. A secondary, but perhaps more important objective, is to provide more clarity concerning the accuracy and conservatism that can be expected from response estimates to TBL-excited vehicle models in SEA. What range of parameters must be included in such an analysis in order to land on the conservative side in response predictions? What is the variability produced in the results with changes in these parameters? The TBL fluid structure loading model used for this study is provided from the SEA module of the commercial code VA One.

Harrison, Phil↗