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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Materials Design Directions for Solar Thermochemical Water Splitting

The sustainable, economical production of molecular hydrogen is a crucial component of a net zero-greenhouse-gas-emissions future. Solar thermochemical water splitting (STWS) offers a renewable route to hydrogen with the potential to help decarbonize several industries, including transportation, manufacturing, mining, metals processing, and electricity generation, as well as provide sustainable hydrogen as a chemical feedstock. STWS uses high temperatures generated from concentrated sunlight or other sustainable means for high-temperature heat to produce hydrogen and oxygen from steam. For example, in its simplest form of a two-step thermochemical cycle, a redox-active metal oxide is heated to ≈1700-2000 K, driving off molecular oxygen while producing oxygen vacancies in the material. The reduced metal oxide then cools (ideally with the extracted heat recuperated for re-use) and, in a separate step, comes into contact with steam, which reacts with oxygen vacancies to produce molecular hydrogen while recovering the original state of the metal oxide. Despite its promising use of the entire solar spectrum to split water thermochemically, the current estimated cost of hydrogen produced via STWS is ≈4-6× the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen Shot target value of $1/kg. One contributing approach to bridging this cost gap is the design of new materials with improved thermodynamic properties to enable higher efficiencies. The state-of-the-art (SOA) redox-active metal oxide for STWS is ceria (CeO 2 ), due to its close to optimal, although too high, oxygen vacancy formation enthalpy and large configurational and electronic entropy of reduction. However, ceria requires high operating temperatures and its efficiency is insufficient. Therefore, efforts to increase the efficiency of STWS cycles have focused on further optimizing oxygen vacancy formation enthalpies and augmenting the reduction entropy via substitution or doping and materials discovery schemes. Examples of the latter include the perovskites BaCe 0.25 Mn 0.75 O 3 and (Ca,Ce)(Ti,Mn)O 3 . These efforts and others have revealed intuitive chemical principles for the efficient and systematic design of more effective materials, such as the strong correlation between the enthalpies of crystal bond dissociation and solid-state cation reduction with the enthalpy of oxygen vacancy formation, as well as configurational entropy augmentation via the coexistence of two or more redox-active cation sublattices. The purpose of this chapter is to prepare the reader with an up-to-date account of STWS redox-active materials, both the SOA and promising newcomers, as well as to provide chemically intuitive strategies for improving their cycle efficiencies through materials design – in conjunction with ongoing efforts in reactor engineering and gas separations – to reach the cost points for commercial viability. First, we will introduce the thermodynamics of STWS using a two-step, metal-oxide, thermochemical cycle with economics in mind. We also will compare the pros and cons of processes that do or do not involve phase changes. Second, we will describe the qualities that make ceria the SOA STWS redox-active material, as well as its limitations. Third, we will survey some of the most promising candidates to date in the search for materials to supplant ceria, emphasizing the post-ternary, metal-oxide-perovskite alloys. Lastly, we will enumerate and discuss the following materials design directions for STWS redox-active materials: crystal reduction potentials as a proxy for oxygen vacancy formation enthalpies, engineering the electronic and configurational entropy of reduction via f-shells and simultaneous redox, and vetting materials stability via temperature-dependent phase diagrams and melting-point prediction.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient screening of rare large pit anomalies on polished surfaces using a minimalist sampling scheme

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has made significant strides in generating clean energy through its inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments. These experiments rely on high-density carbon (HDC) coated shells to encapsulate the fusion fuel. The success of these experiments is heavily dependent on the surface quality of these shells, as even minor imperfections, such as deep pits, can negatively impact fusion yield. Ensuring the required smoothness involves an extensive surface-finishing process that spans approximately 20 stages, making it both time-intensive and resource-demanding. A critical challenge in this process is the need for high-resolution scans to detect rare deep pits, which can be costly and impractical if performed on every shell. This highlights the necessity of developing more efficient scanning methods to optimize time and cost without compromising accuracy. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach that employs the multivariate Dvoretzky–Kiefer–Wolfowitz (DKW) inequality to provide a probabilistic upper bound on the error in estimating pit distribution characteristics via a Kernel Density Estimator (KDE). This error bound enables efficient and reliable estimation of pit distribution characteristics at a specified statistical confidence level using a minimal number of surface scans. The integrated DKW-KDE approach was validated through surface-finishing experiments across two batches of HDC-coated shells, demonstrating consistent and robust performance across multiple stages of the surface-finishing experiments. The validation studies suggest that the integrated DKW-KDE approach achieves comparable accuracy in estimating the risk of deleterious large pits with six scans, thus conserving time and resources. Further evaluations show that performance remains consistent across batches and over multiple polishing stages. In conclusion, based on these findings, one can leverage the minimal-scan insights to strategically improve the bottleneck inspection process, thus enhancing the productivity and quality of shell polishing and similar challenging manufacturing processes.

Inertial confinement fusion↗
DOE OSTI2026

Life cycle analysis of dedicated energy crops for fuel production in the United States

Dedicated energy crops are promising feedstocks to make biofuels including jet fuels. This study applies life cycle analysis (LCA) to estimate direct well-to-wake (WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (g CO 2 e/MJ) for jet fuel derived from five energy crops-biomass sorghum, miscanthus, switchgrass, poplar, and willow-via Fischer-Tropsch-to-Jet (FTJ) and Ethanol-to-Jet (ETJ) pathways. The WTW boundary includes direct emissions from biomass production, fuel production, and fuel combustion. The R&D GREET model is expanded to conduct the LCA, using national average biomass yields and farming inputs from the 2023 Billion-Ton Study. In addition, this study estimates emissions from market-mediated effects, including induced land-use change, induced other crop (non-feedstock) production changes, and induced livestock production changes using global economic and emissions factor models. On a per-dry U.S. ton basis, cultivation and harvest emissions are lowest for willow (51,565 g CO 2 e) and highest for biomass sorghum (104,488 g CO 2 e). Per-acre results show similarly high emissions for sorghum and lowest values for poplar and willow. Direct WTW emissions are substantially lower for FTJ (biomass sorghum: 5.5; miscanthus: 10.3; switchgrass: 11.7; poplar: 11.9; and willow: 8.7 g CO 2 e/MJ) than ETJ (33.2; 33.8; 34.8; 36.2; and 31.7 g CO 2 e/MJ, respectively). When market-mediated emissions are included, miscanthus exhibits the lowest total emissions across energy crop pathways. Although results are sensitive to modeling assumptions, they indicate that high-yielding perennial and woody crops, particularly when planted on marginal land, could significantly reduce WTW emissions for bio-jet fuels by combining low direct emissions with soil carbon gains and favorable market-mediated effects.

Billion-Ton Study↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 1. Overview of the Atmospheric Component

This paper describes the atmospheric component of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 3. Significant updates have been made to the atmospheric physics compared to earlier versions. Specifically, interactive gas chemistry has been implemented, along with improved representations of aerosols and dust emissions. A new stratiform cloud microphysics scheme more physically treats ice processes and aerosol‐cloud interactions. The deep convection parameterization has been largely improved with sophisticated microphysics for convective clouds, making model convection sensitive to large‐scale dynamics, and incorporating the dynamical and physical effects of organized mesoscale convection. Improvements in aerosol wet removal processes and parameter re‐tuning of key aerosol and cloud processes have improved model aerosol radiative forcing. The model's vertical resolution has increased from 72 to 80 layers with the extra eight layers added in the lower stratosphere to better simulate the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation. These improvements have enhanced E3SM's capability to couple aerosol, chemistry, and biogeochemistry and reduced some long‐standing biases in simulating tropical variability. Compared to its predecessors, the model shows a much stronger signal for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby‐gravity waves, and eastward inertia‐gravity waves. Aerosol radiative forcing has been considerably reduced and is now better aligned with community best estimates, leading to significantly improved skill in simulating historical temperature records. Its simulated mean‐state climate is largely comparable to E3SMv2, but with some notable degradation in shortwave cloud radiative effect, precipitable water, and surface wind stress, which will be addressed in future updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The highly exothermic hydrogen abstraction reaction H 2 Te + OH → H 2 O + TeH: comparison with analogous reactions for H 2 Se and H 2 S

The “gold standard” CCSD(T) method is adopted along with the correlation consistent basis sets up to aug-cc-pV5Z-PP to study the mechanism of the hydrogen abstraction reaction H 2 Te + OH. Here, the predicted geometries and vibrational frequencies for reactants and products are in good agreement with the available experimental results. With the ZPVE corrections, the transition state in the favorable pathway of this reaction energetically lies 1.2 kcal mol -1 below the reactants, which is lower than the analogous relative energies for the H 2 Se + OH reaction (-0.7 kcal mol -1 ), the H 2 S + OH reaction (+0.8 kcal mol -1 ) and the H 2 O + OH reaction (+9.0 kcal mol -1 ). Accordingly, the exothermic reaction energies for these related reactions are predicted to be 47.8 (H 2 Te), 37.7 (H 2 Se), 27.1 (H 2 S), and 0.0 (H 2 O) kcal mol -1 , respectively. Geometrically, the low-lying reactant complexes for H 2 Te + OH and H 2 Se + OH are two-center three-electron hemibonded structures, whereas those for H 2 S + OH and H 2 O + OH are hydrogen-bonded. With ZPVE and spin–orbit coupling corrections, the relative energies for the reactant complex, transition state, product complex, and the products for the H 2 Te + OH reaction are estimated to be -13.1, -1.0, -52.0, and -52.6 kcal mol -1 , respectively. Finally, twenty-eight DFT functionals have been tested systematically to assess their ability in describing the potential energy surface of the H 2 Te + OH reaction. The best of these functionals for the corresponding energetics are -9.9, -1.4, -46.4, and -45.4 kcal mol -1 (MPWB1K), or -13.1, -2.4, -57.1, and -54.6 kcal mol -1 (M06-2X), respectively.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dust and gas absorption in the high mass X-ray binary IGR J16318-4848

With an absorption column density on the order of 10 24 cm -2 , IGR J16318-4848 is one of the most extreme cases of a highly obscured high mass X-ray binary. In addition to the overall continuum absorption, the source spectrum exhibits a strong iron and nickel fluorescence line complex at 6.4 keV. Previous empirical modeling of these features and comparison with radiative transfer simulations raised questions about the structure and covering fraction of the absorber and the profile of the fluorescence lines. We aim at a self-consistent description of the continuum absorption, the absorption edges, and the fluorescence lines to constrain the properties of the absorbing material, such as ionization structure and geometry. We further investigate the effects of dust absorption on the observed spectra and the possibility of fluorescence emission from dust grains. We used XMM-Newton and NuSTAR spectra to first empirically constrain the incident continuum and fluorescence lines. Next we used XSTAR to construct a customized photoionization model where we vary the ionization parameter, column density, and covering fraction. In the third step we modeled the absorption and fluorescence in a dusty olivine absorber and employed both a simple analytical model for the fluorescence line emission and a Monte Carlo simulation of radiative transfer that generates line fluxes, which are very close to the observational data. Our empirical spectral modeling is in agreement with previous works. Our second model, the single gas absorber does not describe the observational data. In particular, irrespective of the ionization state or column density of the absorber, a much higher covering fraction than previously estimated is needed to produce the strong fluorescence lines and the large continuum absorption. A dusty, spherical absorber (modeled as consisting of olivine dust, although the nature of dust cannot be constrained) is able to produce the observed continuum absorption and edges. A dense, dusty absorber in the direct vicinity of the source consisting of dust offers a consistent description of both the strong continuum absorption and the strong emission features in the X-ray spectrum of IGR J16318-4848. In particular, for low optical depth of individual grains, which is the case for typical volume densities and grain size distribution models, the dust will contribute significantly to the fluorescence emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Axial magnetic flux amplification in Hall-magnetohydrodynamic simulations of externally magnetized z-pinches

It is shown that externally magnetized gas-puff z-pinches under compression can exhibit robust axial flux amplification under suitable axial boundary conditions. This effect relies upon the Hall term in the generalized Ohm's law to generate azimuthal currents in the presence of a driving axial electric field. Under dynamic compression, the total current tends to flow in a mostly force-free boundary layer, separating the predominately azimuthal field outside the layer and the predominately axial field inside the layer. The effect only appears to occur if the axial boundaries allow for outflow or absorption of electromagnetic energy. The effect is mitigated by imposing either periodic or conducting axial boundary conditions. A semi-analytic equilibrium analysis agrees with steady-state solutions of the time-dependent electron-magnetohydrodynamic equations and provides an estimate of the scaling of the boundary layer as well as suggesting a scenario for the formation of the boundary layer. When operative, the effect can significantly impede plasma compression due to the increase in axial flux that diffuses into the pre-compressed plasma or through the presence of conductors that inhibit movement of the generated axial flux. Several facilities have noted unusual implosion behavior in z-pinch experiments with applied axial fields that does not appear to be explainable within the standard magnetohydrodynamic model. In conclusion, it is suggested that these experiments can be explained by the axial flux amplification and concentration effect

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Self-diffusion of liquid deuterium hydride and liquid tritium

Here, we present a quasi-elastic neutron scattering study of liquid deuterium hydride carried out using the Disk Chopper Spectrometer at the National Institute of Standards and Technology. Under saturated vapor pressure, the self-diffusion constant of deuterium hydride obeys an Arrhenius law D = D 0 exp(-E A /k B T), where the prefactor D 0 is given by D 0 = 9.5 ± 1.2 Å 2 /ps and the activation energy is given by E A = 58 ± 2 K. We apply the quantum law of corresponding states to the known diffusion constants of the hydrogen isotopologues. From this application, we estimate that D 0 ≈ 9.1 Å 2 /ps and E A ≈ 75 K in liquid tritium. Young’s theory of quantum-mechanical effects in van der Waals fluids is shown to apply to the diffusion constants of the liquid hydrogens. Our results underscore the importance of nuclear quantum effects in shaping the properties and behavior of the hydrogen isotopologues.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the carbon capture potential of industrial waste as a feedstock for enhanced weathering

Abstract Limiting anthropogenic global climate warming since the start of the industrial period to less than 2 °C will very likely require both deep and rapid reductions in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and a range of approaches toward carbon dioxide removal (CDR). One prominent CDR approach is enhanced weathering (EW), in which crushed silicate rock is applied on land or in the open ocean to accelerate natural weathering processes that absorb carbon dioxide from Earth’s ocean–atmosphere system. However, in addition to a range of potential environmental, socioeconomic, and ethical issues associated with this pathway, bottlenecks in feedstock sourcing represent a key barrier for deployment of EW at scale. Here, we evaluate the potential of silicate wastes produced from industrial processes—such as steel slag and cement waste—as feedstocks for the EW process. An empirical model that links industrial alkaline waste production to gross domestic product at purchase power parity is developed to forecast waste production in the alternative futures described by the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) framework. By incorporating these results into an intermediate-complexity Earth system model, we also explore the impacts of EW using industrial waste on changes to global temperature, ocean pH, and ocean aragonite saturation state, while also quantifying overall CDR efficiency through the end of the century. We estimate a maximum cumulative end-of-century capture potential of ∼400 GtCO 2 for industrial waste, which could represent a significant fraction of the projected CDR requirement of many mitigation scenarios in the SSP framework. However, feedstock-dependent environmental impacts and the technoeconomics of feedstock redistribution may ultimately limit deployment scope.

Xu, Pengxiao (ORCID:0009000633724293)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Population Aging and Heat Exposure in the 21st Century: Which U.S. Regions Are at Greatest Risk and Why?

Abstract Background and Objectives The co-occurring trends of population aging and climate change mean that rising numbers of U.S. older adults are at risk of intensifying heat exposure. We estimate county-level variations in older populations’ heat exposure in the early (1995–2014) and mid (2050) 21st century. We identify the extent to which rising exposures are attributable to climate change versus population aging. Research Design and Methods We estimate older adults’ heat exposure in 3,109 counties in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Analyses use NASA NEX Global Daily Downscaled Product (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) climate data and county-level projections for the size and distribution of the U.S. age 69+ population. Results Population aging and rising temperatures are documented throughout the United States, with particular “hotspots” in the Deep South, Florida, and parts of the rural Midwest. Increases in heat exposure by 2050 will be especially steep in historically colder regions with large older populations in New England, the upper Midwest, and rural Mountain regions. Rising temperatures are driving exposure in historically colder regions, whereas population aging is driving exposure in historically warm southern regions. Discussion and Implications Interventions to address the impacts of temperature extremes on older adult well-being should consider the geographic distribution and drivers of this exposure. In historically cooler areas where climate change is driving exposures, investments in warning systems may be productive, whereas investments in health care and social services infrastructures are essential in historically hot regions where exposures are driven by population aging.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distributed electric field sensing using fibre optics in borehole environments

In the past decade, rapid advances in distributed optical fibre sensing technologies have made it possible to record various geophysical data (e.g. strain, temperature and pressure) continuously in both time and space along the fibre, providing an unprecedented quantity and spatial density of data compared to traditional geophysical measurements as well as reducing data acquisition cost. To date, no distributed fibre-based electromagnetic field sensing system has been implemented although electromagnetic sensing could have a broad range of applications to geophysical imaging and monitoring in borehole environments. The goal of this paper is to provide a theoretical feasibility study regarding the design and use of an electromagnetic sensing optical fibre for geophysical applications. First, we present the sensitivity analysis of a ‘hypothetical’ optical fibre coated with polyvinylidene fluoride, a polymer that provides relatively high piezoelectric properties, yet unlike ceramics, is flexible. Next, using a two-dimensional electromagnetic modelling algorithm, we simulate the earth electric-field-to-fibre-strain transfer function and estimate the theoretical sensitivity of the optical fibre to electric fields. Given the state-of-the-art distributed acoustic sensing strain sensitivities in the picometres strain range, our numerical modelling analysis suggests that a perfectly coupled polyvinylidene fluoride–coated optical fibre can measure electric field values in the mV/m to V/m amplitude range. We then apply a cylindrically symmetric modelling algorithm to simulate numerical models demonstrating the applicability of such a fibre in an oilfield environment. Scenarios investigated employ an electric field source and suggest that the measurements can be used to distinguish the oil versus water ratio with a fibre mounted inside a producing steel cased oil well as well as distinguishing between brine and hydrocarbon filled reservoir zones with a fibre located outside of the casing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Planting miscanthus instead of row crops may increase the productivity and economic performance of farmed potholes

Abstract Climate change projections indicate that precipitation events in the central United States are expected to become more intense, more frequent in the spring, and less frequent in the summer. Such a precipitation shift could adversely impact crop yields, especially in subfield areas known as farmed potholes, which are highly susceptible to flooding and ponding, and crop death is more likely to occur, particularly early in the growing season. This suggests that planting alternative crops, such as more flood tolerant perennials, in these areas may be a more profitable option. Using observations of crop growth and yield along with ponding depth of a specific field and farmed pothole in the central United States, we developed a spatially explicit version of the agroecosystem model Agro‐IBIS to estimate water depth and crop yield. After evaluating the model, we conducted a case study for a specific farmed pothole with a range of future precipitation scenarios with Agro‐IBIS to simulate the effects of contemporary (2002–2016) and future precipitation on a conventional corn/soybean ( Zea mays L. and Glycine max Merr.) rotation and an alternative perennial miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus Greef et Deu.) cropping system. The depth and frequency of ponding increased under most future precipitation scenarios. The corn/soybean rotation had greater total loss (i.e., no yield) on average (>30%) for all scenarios in comparison to miscanthus (<10%). Under one future precipitation scenario with increased spring precipitation, both the corn/soybean rotation and miscanthus simulations showed an increase in yield. A simple budget analysis indicated that it is more profitable to plant miscanthus instead of corn or soybeans where yields in farmed potholes are consistently poor. Our findings show that potholes can be individually modeled, and their influence on yield can be quantified for use in future management decisions dictated by change in climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Response of U.S. West Coast Mountain Snowpack to Local Sea Surface Temperature Perturbations: Insights from Numerical Modeling and Machine Learning

Sea surface temperature (SST) significantly modulates the precipitation and temperature over land, with important consequences on land surface processes such as snowpack. Compared to the impact of remote SST, the effect of nearshore/local SST is less well understood. In this study, the impact of local SST on the mountain snowpack of the U.S. West Coast is investigated using two 6-km regional climate simulations driven by the same lateral boundary conditions but with time-varying versus time-invariant and warmer local SSTs during 2003–15. Results show that local SST warming leads to warmer winter with more precipitation over the mountains. Meanwhile, the removal of SST temporal variability results in reduced temperature variability but increased precipitation variability. As a result, winter snow accumulation decreases by ~200 mm per season in the Cascade Mountains in the north but increases by ~100 mm per season in the Sierra Nevada in the south. Such a dipole response results from the competing effects of precipitation and temperature change at different elevations and are amplified by the enhanced atmospheric river moisture transport. To further delineate the relative contributions of different meteorological factors to the snowpack response, two neural network models were developed to predict the snow behaviors at seasonal and monthly scales. These models reveal the dominant influence of the total amount and the average temperature of precipitation on the snowpack response. Furthermore, these findings highlight the sensitivity of mountain snowpack to local SST in the western United States and underscore the importance of local SST and atmospheric rives to accurate snowpack estimations for water management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding Type Ia Supernova Distance Biases by Simulating Spectral Variations

In the next decade, transient searches from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will increase the sample of known Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from ~10 3 to 10 5 . With this reduction of statistical uncertainties on cosmological measurements, new methods are needed to reduce systematic uncertainties. Here, characterizing the underlying spectroscopic evolution of SN Ia remains a major systematic uncertainty in current cosmological analyses, motivating a new simulation tool for the next era of SN Ia cosmology: Build Your Own Spectral Energy Distribution (byosed). byosed is used within the SNANA framework to simulate light curves by applying spectral variations to model SEDs, enabling flexible testing of possible systematic shifts in SN Ia distance measurements. We test the framework by comparing a nominal Roman SN Ia survey simulation using a baseline SED model to simulations using SEDs perturbed with byosed, and investigating the impact of ignoring specific SED features in the analysis. These features include semiempirical models of two possible, predicted relationships: between SN ejecta velocity and light-curve observables, and a redshift-dependent relationship between SN Hubble residuals and host-galaxy mass. We analyze each byosed simulation using the SALT2 and BEAMS with Bias Corrections framework, and estimate changes in the measured value of the dark-energy equation-of-state parameter, w. We find a difference of Δw = –0.023 for SN velocity and Δw = 0.021 for redshift-evolving host mass when compared to simulations without these features. By using byosed for SN Ia cosmology simulations, future analyses (e.g., the Rubin and Roman SN Ia samples) will have greater flexibility to constrain or reduce such SN Ia modeling uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Angular-momentum Transport in Proto-neutron Stars and the Fate of Neutron Star Merger Remnants

Both the core collapse of rotating massive stars, and the coalescence of neutron star (NS) binaries result in the formation of a hot, differentially rotating NS remnant. The timescales over which differential rotation is removed by internal angular-momentum transport processes (viscosity) have key implications for the remnant’s long-term stability and the NS equation of state (EOS). Guided by a nonrotating model of a cooling proto-NS, we estimate the dominant sources of viscosity using an externally imposed angular-velocity profile Ω(r). Although the magneto-rotational instability provides the dominant source of effective viscosity at large radii, convection and/or the Tayler–Spruit dynamo dominate in the core of merger remnants where dΩ/dr ≥ 0. Furthermore, the viscous timescale in the remnant core is sufficiently short that solid-body rotation will be enforced faster than matter is accreted from rotationally supported outer layers. Guided by these results, we develop a toy model for how the merger remnant core grows in mass and angular momentum due to accretion. We find that merger remnants with sufficiently massive and slowly rotating initial cores may collapse to black holes via envelope accretion, even when the total remnant mass is less than the usually considered threshold ≈1.2 M TOV for forming a stable solid-body rotating NS remnant (where M TOV is the maximum nonrotating NS mass supported by the EOS). This qualitatively new picture of the post-merger remnant evolution and stability criterion has important implications for the expected electromagnetic counterparts from binary NS mergers and for multimessenger constraints on the NS EOS

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER) With Envelope Improvements and Advanced Air Sealing

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson, et al. 2022). This document focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP) (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER) With Envelope Improvements. This measure combines a two-stage GHP with envelope improvements as a single package. As this package is a combination of two other measures, this document focused on documenting the results associated with this combination of technologies, with individual measure documents for two-stage GHPs and envelope improvements providing the information on the details of these measures. When the two technologies are combined, envelope improvements can modestly reduce energy consumption by a further 10%-15%, but also reduce the required size of the ground heat exchanger and heat pump by approximately 33% on average across all sites. The cost of installing envelope improvements in these homes is likely to be more than paid for by the reduction in equipment and drilling costs in these buildings for the majority of the stock.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Single-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (3.8 COP, 18.6 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Single-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP).?Single-stage GHPs are able to reduce energy consumption by 31% for the entire stock. Additional results provided below detail how savings changes for sections of the housing stock with different base heating fuel and in different climate zones, as well as the savings potential by state for both heating and cooling. Utility bills and electric panel impacts are also shown and discussed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (4.4 COP, 30.9 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock (TM) is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP). This document provides the relevant new modeling information for variable-speed systems not previously covered in either the single-stage or two-stage documents. Variable-speed GHPs represent the most efficient option available for this technology: They provide the most savings, with up to 46% for the applicable portion of the housing stock, compared to 31% for less efficient single-stage GHPs. Additional results shown here detail how the savings change for sections of the housing stock with different base heating fuels and in different climate zones, and they show the savings potential by state for both heating and cooling. Utility bills and electric panel impacts are also shown and discussed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗