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At least 1,333 records · Page 74

Temporal variation of the Jovian H I Lyman alpha emission (1979-1986)

The results of long-term monitoring of the Jovian Lyman-alpha brightness with the IUE are presented. The measurements span the current solar cycle from maximum in late 1979 to the present period of minimum solar activity. The long-term variation seen in the brightness during the declining phase of the cycle matches the decrease in the solar Lyman-alpha flux during this period and is significantly smaller than the variability implied by Pioneer 10 for the first half of the cycle. The hydrogen bulge, a region of enhanced and variable Lyman-alpha emission located near magnetic longitude 100 deg, has been a persistent feature of the Jovian upper atmosphere throughout the eight-year period of the observations, and the average bulge intensity has also followed the solar cycle decrease in Lyman-alpha. Implications for the Jovian upper atmosphere and the electroglow phenomenon on Jupiter during the observational period are discussed.

Skinner, T. E.↗

Solar control of the earth's emission of energetic O(+)

Energetic (0.1-16 keV/e) O(+) data obtained in the earth's plasma sheet (between 10 and 23 RE) by an ion mass spectrometer on the ISEE-1 spacecraft are compared statistically with published data on the concurrent solar wind and IMF. The most strongly variable parameter of the plasma sheet O(+) is its density, which is found to be well correlated with certain solar wind parameters, especially with the solar wind flow speed and the IMF component perpendicular to the flow vector. When those two solar wind parameters are combined to form an electric field (-v x B), both the number density and the energy density of the O(+) are found to vary in proportion to the square of that electric field, on average, suggesting that the emission of energetic O(+) ions from the earth may be powered by that same field. Based on this and on the previously published correlation with solar activity, it is argued that the emission of O(+) is controlled by a combination of HF (ionizing) and quasi-static (accelerating) solar electromagnetic fields.

Lennartsson, W.↗

Interpretation of Dynamics Explorer far UV images of the quiet time thermosphere

A selected set of far ultra violet images of Earth have been analyzed quanitatively to establish their validity for studying thermospheric weather. The set of images chosen for the study was restricted to mostly geomagnetically quiet conditions in order to obtain a baseline understanding of the relationship between the observations and thermospheric phenomenology. The images included low to modrerate solar activity levels. A new model was developed to generate global dayglow images using first principles methods. The mass Spectrometer/incoherent scatter (MSIS-86) model was used to predict the thermospheric concentrations. The analyses of thermospheric images observed in the 123 to 160-nm nominal passband show that the spectral composition for observations on the projected earth disk is dominated by O I 130.4-nm radiation (85-90%), with concentrations from O I 135.6-nm and N2 Lyman-Birge-Hopefield (LBH) bands of about 5-8% each. The synthetic images reproduce the global features of the observed images rather well. Differences between the model and the data are attributed to real atmospheric effects, such as atomic oxygen depletions which are not well reproduced by the MSIS model when geomagnetic activity is elevated. The absoute values recorded were 38-54% higher than predicted. We attribute this discrepancy to low values of the solar extreme ultraviolet irradiances used in the model. Images obtained in the 136 to 165-nm nominal passband are a factor of 2.7 greater than the model. The excess signal observed is most likely due to a long wavelength tail in the instrument sensitivity which allowed Rayleigh scattered sunlight between 180and 250nm to be detected. The understanding of the Dynamics Explorer (DE 1) images gained by this study provides the basis for future work on the global response of the theremosphere to geomagnetic forcing.

Meier, R. R.↗

Under the Weather: Space Weather. The Magnetic Field of the Heliosphere

Normally, only people in the far north can enjoy the dancing beauty of the aurora borealis; however, an intense collision of charged solar particles with the Earth's magnetic field can magnify the Northern Lights so much that they are visible in the southern United States. Behind the light show lies enough flux of energetic particles carried by solar wind to render our planet uninhabitable. The Earth's magnetic field, also known as the magnetosphere, is the only thing that shields us from the Sun. Even the magnetosphere cannot fully guard us from the wrath of the Sun. In March 1989, a powerful solar flare hit Earth with such energy that it burned out transformers in Quebec's electrical grid, plunging Quebec and the eastern United States into darkness for more than 9 hours. Northern lights and energy grid overloads are not the only ways that a solar wind can affect us. A solar storm in July 1999 interrupted radio broadcasts. Solar activity can disorient radars and satellite sensors, break up cell phone connections, and threaten the safety of astronauts. A large bombardment of solar particles can even reduce the amount of ozone in the upper atmosphere. Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), the study of magnetic fields in magnetized plasmas, can help scientists predict, and therefore prepare for, the harmful side effects of solar weather in the magnetosphere.

Roberts, Aaron↗

Development of a complex of activity in the solar corona

Using Skylab observations of soft solar X-rays, the development of a complex of activity in the solar corona during its whole lifetime of seven solar rotations is studied. The basic components of the activity complex were determined to be permanently interconnected through sets of magnetic field lines, which suggests similar connections also below the photosphere. The visibility of individual loops in these connections, however, was greatly variable and typically shorter than one day. Each brightening of a coronal loop in X-rays seems to be related to a variation in the photospheric magnetic field near its footprint.

Howard, R.↗

Anomalous solar rotation in the early 17th century

The character of solar rotation has been examined for two periods in the early 17th century for which detailed sunspot drawings are available: A.D. 1625 through 1626 and 1642 through 1644. The first period occurred 20 years before the start of the Maunder sunspot minimum, 1645 through 1715; the second occurred just at its commencement. Solar rotation in the earlier period was much like that of today. In the later period, the equatorial velocity of the sun was faster by 3 to 5 percent and the differential rotation was enhanced by a factor of 3. The equatorial acceleration with declining solar activity is in the same sense as that found in recent Doppler data. It seems likely that the change in rotation of the solar surface between 1625 and 1645 was associated with the onset of the Maunder Minimum.

Eddy, J. A.↗

A Review and Reflections on the Sun-Climate Connection

The field of sun-climate is beset with an extraordinary number of numerical correlations attempting to relate various periodicities of solar activity with changes in the Earth's weather and climate. Signatures representing climatological variability have been sought for cycles as short as the solar 28-day rotational period up to Milankovich periods of thousands of years, although a majority of correlations have concentrated on the 11-year sunspot and 22-year Hale double sunspot cycles. For the shorter term, parameters including temperature, pressure, winds storm tracks, rainfall, and water levels in rivers and lakes, etc. have been correlated with solar variability. For longer periods, it has been necessary to seek more indirect evidence in ice cores, tree rings, and geologic deep sea cores. Other atmospheric parameters relating to atmospheric electricity and the global electric circuit have also been correlated in similar fashion. Unfortunately, few, if any, of this wide spectrum of numerical correlations have been associated with any viable physical explanation, making most studies in the field an exercise in numerical statistics. More recently, a few suggestions for plausible coupling processes have begun to appear. These, coupled with new and stronger correlations involving selective binning of climatological data sets have injected new life and hope to this field. An overview is given of the historical past and current perspectives, to evaluate possible avenues for defining physical linking processes in the future.

Goldberg, Richard A.↗

Solar Effects on Global Climate Due to Cosmic Rays and Solar Energetic Particles

Although the work reported here does not directly connect solar variability with global climate change, this research establishes a plausible quantitative causative link between observed solar activity and apparently correlated variations in terrestrial climate parameters. Specifically, we have demonstrated that ion-mediated nucleation of atmospheric particles is a likely, and likely widespread, phenomenon that relates solar variability to changes in the microphysical properties of clouds. To investigate this relationship, we have constructed and applied a new model describing the formation and evolution of ionic clusters under a range of atmospheric conditions throughout the lower atmosphere. The activation of large ionic clusters into cloud nuclei is predicted to be favorable in the upper troposphere and mesosphere, and possibly in the lower stratosphere. The model developed under this grant needs to be extended to include additional cluster families, and should be incorporated into microphysical models to further test the cause-and-effect linkages that may ultimately explain key aspects of the connections between solar variability and climate.

Turco, R. P.↗

Spectral analysis of the Elatina varve series

The Elatina formation in South America, which provides a rich fossil record of presumptive solar activity in the late Precambrian, is of great potential significance for the physics of the sun because it contains luminae grouped in cycles of about 12, an appearance suggestive of the solar cycle. Here, the laminae are treated as varves laid down yearly and modulated in thickness in accordance with the late Precambrian sunspot activity for the year of deposition. The purpose is to present a simple structure, or intrinsic spectrum, that will be uncovered by appropriate data analysis.

Bracewell, R. N.↗

Spectral analysis of the Elatina series

The Elatina formation in South Australia, which provides a rich fossil record of presumptive solar activity in the late Precambrian, is of great potential significance for the physics of the sun because it contains luminae grouped in cycles of about 12, an appearance suggestive of the solar cycle. Here, the laminae are treated as varves laid down yearly and modulated in thickness in accordance with the late Precambrian sunspot activity for the year of deposition. The purpose is to present a simple structure, or intrinsic spectrum, that will be uncovered by appropriate data analysis.

Bracewell, R. N.↗

THE MAJOR GEOEFFECTIVE SOLAR ERUPTIONS OF 2012 MARCH 7: COMPREHENSIVE SUN-TO-EARTH ANALYSIS

During the interval 2012 March 7–11 the geospace experienced a barrage of intense space weather phenomena including the second largest geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 24 so far. Significant ultra-low-frequency wave enhancements and relativistic-electron dropouts in the radiation belts, as well as strong energetic-electron injection events in the magnetosphere were observed. These phenomena were ultimately associated with two ultra-fast (>2000 km s{sup −1}) coronal mass ejections (CMEs), linked to two X-class flares launched on early 2012 March 7. Given that both powerful events originated from solar active region NOAA 11429 and their onsets were separated by less than an hour, the analysis of the two events and the determination of solar causes and geospace effects are rather challenging. Using satellite data from a flotilla of solar, heliospheric and magnetospheric missions a synergistic Sun-to-Earth study of diverse observational solar, interplanetary and magnetospheric data sets was performed. It was found that only the second CME was Earth-directed. Using a novel method, we estimated its near-Sun magnetic field at 13 R{sub ⊙} to be in the range [0.01, 0.16] G. Steep radial fall-offs of the near-Sun CME magnetic field are required to match the magnetic fields of the corresponding interplanetary CME (ICME) at 1 AU. Perturbed upstream solar-wind conditions, as resulting from the shock associated with the Earth-directed CME, offer a decent description of its kinematics. The magnetospheric compression caused by the arrival at 1 AU of the shock associated with the ICME was a key factor for radiation-belt dynamics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA/MSFC prediction techniques

The NASA/MSFC method of forecasting is more formal than NOAA's. The data is smoothed by the Lagrangian method and linear regression prediction techniques are used. The solar activity period is fixed at 11 years--the mean period of all previous cycles. Interestingly, the present prediction for the time of the next solar minimum is February or March of 1987, which, within the uncertainties of two methods, can be taken to be the same as the NOAA result.

Smith, Robert E.↗

Low-latitude zonal and vertical ion drifts seen by DE 2

Horizontal and vertical ion drift data from the DE 2 spacecraft have been used to determine average zonal and vertical plasma flow (electric field) characteristics in the +/- 26-deg dip latitude region during a time of high solar activity. The 'average data' local time profile for an apex height bin centered at 400 km indicates westward plasma flow from 0600 to 1900 solar local time ((SLT) with a maximum westward velocity of 80 m/s in the early afternoon. There is a sharp change to eastward flow at approximately 1900 hours with an early evening peak of 170 m/s. A secondary nighttime maximum exists at 0430 SLT preceeding the reversal to westward flow. This profile is in good agreement with Jicamarca, Peru, radar measurements made under similar solar maximum conditions. Haramonic analysis indicates a net superrotation which is strongest at lower apex altitudes. The diurnal term is dominant, but higher order terms through the quatradiurnal are significant.

Coley, W. R.↗

Solar cycle variation of thermospheric nitric oxide at solstice

A coupled, two-dimensional, chemical-diffusive model of the thermosphere is used to study the role of solar activity in the global distribution of nitric oxide. The model calculates self-consistently the zonally averaged temperature, circulation, and composition for solstice under solar maximum and solar minimum conditions. A decrease of the NO density by a factor of three to four in the E region is predicted from solar maximum to solar minimum. It is found that the main features of the overall morphology and the changes induced by the solar cycle are well reproduced in the model, although some details are not satisfactorily predicted. The sensitivity of the NO distribution to eddy transport and to the quenching of metastable N(2D) atoms by atomic oxygen is also described.

Gerard, J.-C.↗

High-velocity plasma in the transition region of AU Microscopii: Evidence for magnetic reconnection and saturated heating during quiescent and flaring conditions

We analyze high-resolution HST spectra of the dMOe flare star AU Mic, including the profiles of the C IV 1548.2 A, 1550.8 A and Si IV 1393.8 A, 1402.8 A lines obtained with the G160M grating of the Goddard High-Resolution Spectrograph. The quiescent profiles of the C IV and Si IV lines are broad, and not simple Gaussians in shape. Flux in the C IV and Si IV lines, for example, can be measured reliably out to about +/- 200 km/s from line center. Each of the C IV and Si IV profiles can be fitted accurately by two Gaussians (one narrow and the other broad) centered on nearly the same wavelength, with the narrower component accounting for roughly 60% ofthe total integrated flux. The narrow components have similar line widths to those observed in solar active and quiet regions. The broad Gaussian components of the AU Mic line profiles are reminiscent of the broad C IV profiles observed in solar transition region explosive events, which are thought to be associated with emerging magnetic flux regions where field reconnection occurs.

Linsky, Jeffrey L.↗

Space Weather Modeling and Prediction for Intermediate Time-scales

Much of solar activity within a sunspot cycle occurs as bursts, or 'seasons' of strong activity over several months, separated by periods of much less activity. The most important space weather effects occur during these bursts. Previous modeling and forecasting efforts have focused on time-scales of hours-to-days and decades-to-centuries. The recent discovery of Rossby waves in the Sun, together with recently developed global models of solar MHD Rossby waves and their interactions with differential rotation and spot-producing magnetic fields, reveal the opportunity to simulate and predict the occurrence, strength and location of enhanced activity bursts a few weeks up to several months in advance. We now have a golden opportunity to fill in this gap in time-scales of forecasting space weather. This requires a) continuous observations of solar Rossby waves by various techniques; b) development of coupled nonlinear MHD models that simulate both global Rossby waves and the much smaller spatial scale emergence of new active regions; c) application of advanced data assimilation techniques to couple surface observations to update the model-system to integrate forward in time for creating forecasts months ahead. Then it will be possible to build operational prediction models to meet the needs of customers and stakeholders, including support of future NASA missions, regarding what kind and level of space weather to expect a few weeks to several months ahead.

SMD↗

Association of corotating magnetic sector structure with Jupiters decameter-wave radio emissions

Chree (superposed epoch) analyses of Jupiter's decameter-wave radio emission taken from the new Thieman (1979) catalog show highly significant correlation with solar activity indicated by the geomagnetic Ap index. The correlation effects can be explained in terms of corotating interplanetary magnetic sector features. At times when the solar wind velocity is relatively low, about 300 to 350 km/s, a sector boundary can encounter the Earth and Jupiter almost simultaneously during the period immediately before opposition. After opposition this will not normally occur as the solar wind velocities necessary are too low. The correlation effects are much enhanced for the three apparitions of 1962-1964 during which a relatively stable and long-lived sector pattern was present. Chree analyses for this period indicate periodicities, approximately equal to half the solar rotation period, in the Jupiter data.

Barrow, C. H.↗

The Lockheed OSO-8 program. Analysis of data from the mapping X-ray heliometer experiment

The final report describes the extent of the analysis effort, and other activities associated with the preservation and documentation of the data set are described. The main scientific results, which are related to the behavior of individual solar activity regions in the energy band 1.5 - 15 keV, are summarized, and a complete bibliography of publications and presentations is given. Copies of key articles are also provided.

Acton, L. W.↗