Interpretation of pilot opinion by application of multiloop models to a VTOL flight simulator task
Mathematical model for interpreting pilot opinion and selection of optimum control sensitivity for VTOL aircraft hovering task
Miller, D. P.↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Sensitivity Simulation”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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True covariance simulation of the EUVE update filter
A covariance analysis of the performance and sensitivity of the attitude determination Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) used by the On Board Computer (OBC) of the Extreme Ultra Violet Explorer (EUVE) spacecraft is presented. The linearized dynamics and measurement equations of the error states are derived which constitute the truth model describing the real behavior of the systems involved. The design model used by the OBC EKF is then obtained by reducing the order of the truth model. The covariance matrix of the EKF which uses the reduced order model is not the correct covariance of the EKF estimation error. A true covariance analysis has to be carried out in order to evaluate the correct accuracy of the OBC generated estimates. The results of such analysis are presented which indicate both the performance and the sensitivity of the OBC EKF.
Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack Y.↗
Use of Radon for Evaluation of Atmospheric Transport Models: Sensitivity to Emissions
This paper presents comparative analyses of atmospheric radon (Rn) distributions simulated using different emission scenarios and the observations. Results indicate that the model generally reproduces observed distributions of Rn but there are some biases in the model related to differences in large-scale and convective transport. Simulations presented here use an off-line three-dimensional chemical transport model driven by assimilated winds and two scenarios of Rn fluxes (atom/cm s) from ice-free land surfaces: (A) globally uniform flux of 1.0, and (B) uniform flux of 1.0 between 60 deg. S and 30 deg. N followed by a sharp linear decrease to 0.2 at 70 deg. N. We considered an additional scenario (C) where Rn emissions for case A were uniformly reduced by 28%. Results show that case A overpredicts observed Rn distributions in both hemispheres. Simulated northern hemispheric (NH) Rn distributions from cases B and C compare better with the observations, but are not discernible from each other. In the southern hemisphere, surface Rn distributions from case C compare better with the observations. We performed a synoptic scale source-receptor analysis for surface Rn to locate regions with ratios B/A and B/C less than 0.5. Considering an uncertainty in regional Rn emissions of a factor of two, our analysis indicates that additional measurements of surface Rn particularly during April-October and north of 50 deg. N over the Pacific as well as Atlantic regions would make it possible to determine if the proposed latitude gradient in Rn emissions is superior to a uniform flux scenario.
Gupta, Mohan L.↗
Exploring Applications of Machine Learning for Wildfire Monitoring and Detection using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
Wildfires are increasing in frequency and severity around the world, including the United States. The losses caused by wildfires could be mitigated if high-risk areas, hotspots, and flare-ups could be monitored continuously, such as through the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). This paper documents exploratory efforts using machine learning to determine efficient flight paths for UAVs and to detect wildfires using image classification. On path planning, three machine learning techniques—Genetic Algorithm, Simulated Annealing, and Dynamic Programming—were explored. Genetic Algorithm was found to be an effective approach for path planning for wildfire monitoring and surveillance by UAVs. For a scenario of 25 locations in a circular arrangement, the algorithm was able to return the optimal path. The accuracy and execution time was found to be sensitive to the algorithm hyperparameters selected, which was especially evident in scenarios with hundreds or thousands of locations. Simulated Annealing was also found to be an effective approach for UAV path planning, with a major benefit of avoiding getting trapped in local minima and being straightforward to implement. Like Genetic Algorithm, the performance of Simulated Annealing was also found to be sensitive to the algorithm hyperparameters selected. By comparison, Dynamic Programming guarantees optimality for any number of locations, but it was found to be less practical in terms of execution time for scenarios with more than about a couple dozen locations. On wildfire detection, image classification using deep learning with a convolutional neural network was explored. Transfer learning was found to be a useful technique to efficiently train deep learning models. Also, it was determined that GPU processing can increase training speed by an order of magnitude, which enables significantly faster development. For a validation test set of 500 images, there were only two false negatives and zero false positives. These results demonstrate that detecting wildfires in static cameras using machine learning is feasible and establish a baseline for using images captured by UAVs in flight for wildfire detection.
Wildfire management↗
Sensitivity-based Similarity Metrics for New Experiment Design Optimization
The nuclear data used in advanced reactor simulations requires validation. Data from nuclear criticality experiments can provide this validation. New nuclear criticality experiment design requires extensive knowledge and expert judgement such that the experimental design parameters are selected in such a way to keep the experiment subcritical. To aide in this experimental design process, professionals can utilize sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis relies on matching new application experiments with currently existing benchmark experiments. Currently, there is functionality in the Whisper 1.1 software package to calculate a similarity metric based on neutron multiplication factor sensitivity coefficients between a new application designed by the user and existing International Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiment Project (ICSBEP) benchmarks. The Whisper 1.1 software package is included in Monte Carlo N-Particle ® Code Version 6.21 (MCNP ® 6.2). This work is geared toward expanding this capability to new similarity metrics based on beta-effective sensitivity coefficients and reactivity coefficient sensitivity coefficients. While the investigation of these sensitivity coefficients is presented in detail in separate works at this same conference, this work will be primarily focused on studying the similarity metrics in more detail. These similarity metrics will then be incorporated into the optimization algorithms used for experiment design in EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in nuclear Data), which is a Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) project designed to constrain nuclear data of interest, such that adjustments can be made to possible inaccuracies. A more detailed optimization can be subsequently performed by breaking down these similarity metrics by isotope, reaction, and energy.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Filaments in and between galaxy clusters at low and mid-frequency with the SKA
Context. Understanding the magnetised Universe is a major challenge in modern astrophysics, and cosmic magnetism has been acknowledged as one of the key scientific drivers of the most ambitious radio instrument ever planned, the Square Kilometre Array. Aims. With this work, we aim to investigate the potential of the Square Kilometre Array and its precursors and pathfinders in the study of magnetic fields in galaxy clusters and filaments through diffuse synchrotron radio emission. Galaxy clusters and filaments of the cosmic web are indeed unique laboratories in which to investigate turbulent fluid motions and large-scale magnetic fields in action, and much of what is known about magnetic fields in galaxy clusters comes from sensitive radio observations. Methods. Based on cosmological magneto-hydrodynamic simulations, we predict radio properties (total intensity and polarisation) of a pair of galaxy clusters connected by a cosmic-web filament. Results. We use our theoretical expectations to explore the potential of polarimetric observations to study large-scale structure magnetic fields in the frequency ranges 50–350 MHz and 950–1760 MHz. We also present predictions for galaxy cluster polarimetric observations with the Square Kilometre Array precursors and pathfinders, such as the LOw frequency ARray 2.0 and the MeerKAT+ telescope. Conclusions. Our findings point out that polarisation observations are particularly powerful for the study of large-scale magnetic fields, since they are not significantly affected by confusion noise. The unprecedented sensitivity and spatial resolution of the intermediatefrequency radio telescopes make them the favourite instruments for the study of these sources through polarimetric data, potentially allowing us to understand if the energy density of relativistic electrons is in equipartition with the magnetic field or rather coupled with the thermal gas density. Our results show that low-frequency instruments also represent a precious tool to study diffuse synchrotron emission in total intensity and polarisation.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Modeling and Simulation of a Tethered Harpoon for Comet Sampling
This paper describes the development of a dynamic model and simulation results of a tethered harpoon for comet sampling. This model and simulation was done in order to carry out an initial sensitivity analysis for key design parameters of the tethered system. The harpoon would contain a canister which would collect a sample of soil from a cometary surface. Both a spring ejected canister and a tethered canister are considered. To arrive in close proximity of the spacecraft at the end of its trajectory so it could be captured, the free-flying canister would need to be ejected at the right time and with the proper impulse, while the tethered canister must be recovered by properly retrieving the tether at a rate that would avoid an excessive amplitude of oscillatory behavior during the retrieval. The paper describes the model of the tether dynamics and harpoon penetration physics. The simulations indicate that, without the tether, the canister would still reach the spacecraft for collection, that the tether retrieval of the canister would be achievable with reasonable fuel consumption, and that the canister amplitude upon retrieval would be insensitive to variations in vertical velocity dispersion.
small body↗
Temperature Effects in Flexible Adsorption Processes for Amorphous Microporous Polymers
A collection of atomistic molecular simulations is reported that illustrate the impact of adsorption temperature on species uptake and adsorbate-induced structural rearrangement for amorphous polymers of intrinsic microporosity. Temperature-sensitive structural rearrangement is evaluated by contrasting two methods: standard grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations using a rigid framework approximation and a combined Monte Carlo/molecular dynamics approach that fully incorporates framework flexibility. We report single-component gas phase adsorption isotherms for CH 4 , C 2 H 4 , C 2 H 6 , C 3 H 6 , C 3 H 8 , and CO 2 across a temperature range of 250–400 K for models of an archetypal polymer of intrinsic microporosity, PIM-1. A quadratic model is presented that captures two main mechanisms of temperature-dependent adsorption-induced deformation of PIM-1 up to a relative swelling of 1.15: thermal expansion and an increased propensity to swell as a function of species uptake. Two case studies are reported that highlight the critical role of operating temperature in industrial storage and separation applications. The first study focuses on methane storage and delivery applications using a pressure–temperature swing adsorption application (PTSA). We demonstrate that larger working capacities are accompanied by increased volumetric strain between adsorption–desorption steps. The second case study considers PIM-1 as an adsorbent to separate an exemplar ternary syngas mixture at operating temperatures ranging 300–550 K. Here, a temperature threshold of ~400 K is identified, beyond which adsorption-induced PIM-1 swelling is negligible and the solubility selectivity-loading curve transitions to exhibiting a nearly linear relationship.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Warm-phase microphysical evolution in large-eddy simulations of tropical cumulus congestus: evaluating drop size distribution evolution using polarimetry retrievals, in situ measurements, and a thermal-based framework
Owing to uncertainties in convective microphysics processes, improving parameterizations in Earth system models (ESMs) can benefit from observationally constrained cases suitable for scaling between cloud-resolving models and ESMs. We propose a benchmark large-eddy simulation (LES) cumulus congestus case study from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP 2 Ex) for evaluating and improving ESMs in single-column model (SCM) mode. We seek observational constraints using novel polarimetric retrievals and in situ cloud microphysics measurements. Simulations using bulk and bin microphysics initialized with observed aerosol profiles are compared to cloud-top retrievals of cloud droplet effective radius (R eff ), effective variance (ν eff ), and number concentration (N d ) from the airborne Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP). Both schemes reproduce characteristics of cloud-top N d and R eff that increase and decrease with altitude, respectively. Cloud-top N d is low-biased relative to RSP retrievals in both schemes, potentially due to limitations in both simulations and retrieval assumptions. Cloud-top R eff is low-biased in the bulk scheme but reasonably reproduced by the bin scheme. Profiles of N d and R eff are sensitive to the collision–coalescence process and the vertical variation in aerosol size distribution. Comparison of simulated and in situ droplet size distributions (DSDs) shows that, to first order, integrated moments are always sensitive to sizes < ~ 30 µm and can also be sensitive to larger sizes if the DSDs are sufficiently broad, with implications for the assumed maximum observed size retrieved by the RSP. The bin scheme captures the observed extended tail of the DSD, while the bulk scheme is unable to due to parametric constraints. Differences in expected relationships between in situ measurements of cloud cores and cloud-top retrievals by RSP demonstrate difficulty in constraining well the case presented herein. Finally, a thermal-tracking framework demonstrates that the dilution of N d throughout a thermal's lifetime is heavily determined by collision–coalescence and the height-varying aerosol distribution and that, in the absence of these, the impact of entrainment on diluting N d is largely offset by secondary activation. Implications for evaluating warm-phase convective microphysics schemes in ESMs and translating results for use on global, space-based polarimetry platforms are discussed.
Stanford, McKenna Wallace [Columbia Univ., New Yor↗
Model Evaluation of Short-Lived Climate Forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: A Multi-Species, Multi-Model Study
While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, modeling short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles in the Arctic allows us to simulate near-term climate and health impacts for a sensitive, pristine region that is warming at 3 times the global rate. Atmospheric modeling is critical for understanding the long-range transport of pollutants to the Arctic, as well as the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere. Modeling is also used as a tool to determine SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models by assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over 4 years (2008-2009 and 2014-2015) conducted for the 2022 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship, and aircraft-based observations. The annual means, seasonal cycles, and 3-D distributions of SLCFs were evaluated using several metrics, such as absolute and percent model biases and correlation coefficients. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean (mmm) was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic and had the best overall performance. For the SLCFs with the greatest radiative impact (CH4, 03, BC, and SO(sup 2-)(sub 4)), the mmm was within ±25 % of the measurements across the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, we recommend a multi-model ensemble be used for simulating climate and health impacts of SLCFs. Of the SLCFs in our study, model biases were smallest for C"4 and greatest for OA. For most SLCFs, model biases skewed from positive to negative with increasing latitude. Our analysis suggests that vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfires remain highly uncertain processes. These processes need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment. As model development proceeds in these areas, we highly recommend that the vertical and 3-D distribution of SLCFs be evaluated, as that information is critical to improving the uncertain processes in models.
Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme↗
Analytical and Experimental Studies of Leak Location and Environment Characterization for the International Space Station
The International Space Station program is developing a robotically-operated leak locator tool to be used externally. The tool would consist of a Residual Gas Analyzer for partial pressure measurements and a full range pressure gauge for total pressure measurements. The primary application is to detect NH3 coolant leaks in the ISS thermal control system.An analytical model of leak plume physics is presented that can account for effusive flow as well as plumes produced by sonic orifices and thruster operations. This model is used along with knowledge of typical RGA and full range gauge performance to analyze the expected instrument sensitivity to ISS leaks of various sizes and relative locations (directionality).The paper also presents experimental results of leak simulation testing in a large thermal vacuum chamber at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. This test characterized instrument sensitivity as a function of leak rates ranging from 1 lbmyr. to about 1 lbmday. This data may represent the first measurements collected by an RGA or ion gauge system monitoring off-axis point sources as a function of location and orientation. Test results are compared to the analytical model and used to propose strategies for on-orbit leak location and environment characterization using the proposed instrument while taking into account local ISS conditions and the effects of ramwake flows and structural shadowing within low Earth orbit.
Leak Locator↗
Analytical and Experimental Studies of Leak Location and Environment Characterization for the International Space Station
The International Space Station program is developing a robotically-operated leak locator tool to be used externally. The tool would consist of a Residual Gas Analyzer for partial pressure measurements and a full range pressure gauge for total pressure measurements. The primary application is to detect NH3 coolant leaks in the ISS thermal control system. An analytical model of leak plume physics is presented that can account for effusive flow as well as plumes produced by sonic orifices and thruster operations. This model is used along with knowledge of typical RGA and full range gauge performance to analyze the expected instrument sensitivity to ISS leaks of various sizes and relative locations ("directionality"). The paper also presents experimental results of leak simulation testing in a large thermal vacuum chamber at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. This test characterized instrument sensitivity as a function of leak rates ranging from 1 lb-mass/yr. to about 1 lb-mass/day. This data may represent the first measurements collected by an RGA or ion gauge system monitoring off-axis point sources as a function of location and orientation. Test results are compared to the analytical model and used to propose strategies for on-orbit leak location and environment characterization using the proposed instrument while taking into account local ISS conditions and the effects of ram/wake flows and structural shadowing within low Earth orbit.
000000↗
Modeling of Turbulent Free Shear Flows
The modeling of turbulent free shear flows is crucial to the simulation of many aerospace applications, yet often receives less attention than the modeling of wall boundary layers. Thus, while turbulence model development in general has proceeded very slowly in the past twenty years, progress for free shear flows has been even more so. This paper highlights some of the fundamental issues in modeling free shear flows for propulsion applications, presents a review of past modeling efforts, and identifies areas where further research is needed. Among the topics discussed are differences between planar and axisymmetric flows, development versus self-similar regions, the effect of compressibility and the evolution of compressibility corrections, the effect of temperature on jets, and the significance of turbulent Prandtl and Schmidt numbers for reacting shear flows. Large eddy simulation greatly reduces the amount of empiricism in the physical modeling, but is sensitive to a number of numerical issues. This paper includes an overview of the importance of numerical scheme, mesh resolution, boundary treatment, sub-grid modeling, and filtering in conducting a successful simulation.
Yoder, Dennis A.↗
Probabilistic Evaluation of Advanced Ceramic Matrix Composite Structures
The objective of this report is to summarize the deterministic and probabilistic structural evaluation results of two structures made with advanced ceramic composites (CMC): internally pressurized tube and uniformly loaded flange. The deterministic structural evaluation includes stress, displacement, and buckling analyses. It is carried out using the finite element code MHOST, developed for the 3-D inelastic analysis of structures that are made with advanced materials. The probabilistic evaluation is performed using the integrated probabilistic assessment of composite structures computer code IPACS. The affects of uncertainties in primitive variables related to the material, fabrication process, and loadings on the material property and structural response behavior are quantified. The primitive variables considered are: thermo-mechanical properties of fiber and matrix, fiber and void volume ratios, use temperature, and pressure. The probabilistic structural analysis and probabilistic strength results are used by IPACS to perform reliability and risk evaluation of the two structures. The results will show that the sensitivity information obtained for the two composite structures from the computational simulation can be used to alter the design process to meet desired service requirements. In addition to detailed probabilistic analysis of the two structures, the following were performed specifically on the CMC tube: (1) predicted the failure load and the buckling load, (2) performed coupled non-deterministic multi-disciplinary structural analysis, and (3) demonstrated that probabilistic sensitivities can be used to select a reduced set of design variables for optimization.
Abumeri, Galib H.↗
A sensitivity equation approach to shape optimization in fluid flows
A sensitivity equation method to shape optimization problems is applied. An algorithm is developed and tested on a problem of designing optimal forebody simulators for a 2D, inviscid supersonic flow. The algorithm uses a BFGS/Trust Region optimization scheme with sensitivities computed by numerically approximating the linear partial differential equations that determine the flow sensitivities. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the method.
Borggaard, Jeff↗
An experimental and kinetic modeling study of NO x sensitization on methane autoignition and oxidation
An experimental and kinetic modeling study of the influence of NO x (i.e. NO 2 , NO and N 2 O) addition on the ignition behavior of methane/‘air’ mixtures is performed. Ignition delay time measurements are taken in a rapid compression machine (RCM) and in a shock tube (ST) at temperatures and pressures ranging from 900–1500 K and 1.5–3.0 MPa, respectively for equivalence ratios of 0.5–2.0 in ‘air’. The conditions chosen are relevant to spark ignition and homogeneous charge compression ignition engine operating conditions where exhaust gas recirculation can potentially add NO x to the premixed charge. The RCM measurements show that the addition of 200 ppm NO 2 to the stoichiometric CH 4 /oxidizer mixture results in a factor of three increase in reactivity compared to the baseline case without NOx for temperatures in the range 600–1000 K. However, adding up to 1000 ppm N 2 O does not show any appreciable effect on the measurements. The promoting effect of NO 2 was found to increase with temperature in the range 950–1150 K, while the sensitization effect decreases at higher pressures. The experimental results measured are simulated using NUIGMech1.2 comprising an updated NO x sub-chemistry in this work. A kinetic analysis indicates that the competition between the reactions ĊH 3 + NO 2 ↔ CH 3 Ȯ + NO and ĊH 3 + NO 2 (+M) ↔ CH 3 NO 2 (+M), the former being a propagation reaction and the latter being a termination reaction governs NO x sensitization on CH 4 ignition. Recent calculations by Matsugi and Shiina (A. Matsugi, H. Shiina, J. Phys. Chem. A. 121 (2017) 4218–4224) for the nitromethane formation reaction CH 3 + NO 2 (+M) ↔ CH 3 NO 2 (+M), together with the recently calculated rate constants for HONO/HNO 2 reactions significantly improve ignition delay time predictions in the temperature range 600–1000 K. Furthermore, the experiments with NO addition reveal a non-monotonous sensitization impact on CH 4 ignition at lower temperatures with NO initially acting as an inhibitor at low NO concentrations and then as a promoter as NO concentrations increase in the mixture. This non-monotonous trend is attributed to the role of the chain-termination reaction ĊH 3 + NO 2 (+M) ↔ CH 3 NO 2 (+M) and the impact of NO on the transition to the chain-branching steps CH 2 O + HȮ 2 ↔ HĊO + H 2 O 2 , H 2 O 2 (+M) ↔ ȮH + ȮH (+M), HĊO ↔ CO + Ḣ followed by CO + O 2 ↔ CO 2 + Ö and Ḣ + O 2 ↔ Ö + ȮH. NUIGMech1.2 is systematically validated against the new ignition delay measurements taken here together with species measurements and high temperature ignition delay time data available in the literature for CH 4 /oxidizer mixtures diluted with NO 2 /N 2 O/NO and is observed to accurately capture the sensitization trends.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Strength of porous α-SiO 2 in a shock loaded environment: Calibration via Richtmyer–Meshkov instability and validation via Mach lens
The strength of brittle porous media is of concern in numerous applications, for example, earth penetration, crater formation, and blast loading. Thus, it is of importance to possess techniques that allow for constitutive model calibration within the laboratory setting. The goal of the current work is to demonstrate an experimental technique allowing for strength assessment of porous media subjected to shock loading, which can be implemented into pressure-dependent yield surfaces within numerical simulation schemes. As a case study, the deviatoric response of distended α-SiO 2 has been captured in a tamped Richtmyer–Meshkov instability (RMI) environment at a pressure regime of 4–10 GPa. Hydrocode simulations were used to interpret RMI experimental data, and a resulting pressure-dependent yield surface akin to the often employed modified Drucker–Prager model was calibrated. Simulations indicate that the resulting jet length generated by the RMI is sensitive to the porous media strength, thereby providing a feasible experimental platform capable of capturing the pressurized granular deviatoric response. Furthermore, in efforts to validate the RMI-calibrated strength model, a set of Mach-lens experiments was performed and simulated with the calibrated pressure-dependent yield surface. Excellent agreement between the resulting Mach-lens length in experiment and simulation provides additional confidence to the RMI yield-surface calibration scheme.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Sensitivity of Next-Generation CMB Surveys to Neutrinos and Other Light Relics
Neutrinos and other light relics leave characteristic imprints in the cosmic microwave background anisotropies, making their observation a sensitive probe of the particle content and thermal history of the early universe. The energy density in these relativistic species is parameterized by their effective number $N_\mathrm{eff}$. Measuring this parameter at the percent level, which is a long-standing science goal of CMB-S4 and other experiments, would test a wide range of well-motivated physics within and beyond the Standard Model of particle physics. In this paper, we present Fisher-matrix forecasts of the projected sensitivity to $N_\mathrm{eff}$ of several CMB-S4 survey configurations considered during its extensive design phase. The conceptual design reaches $σ(N_\mathrm{eff}) < 0.03$ over its seven-year observing period, while the revised configuration achieves the same precision over a longer timescale. We complement these results with a cosmic-variance-limited survey over the same multipole range to quantify the room for improvement accessible with additional instrumental, observational, and theoretical efforts. Finally, we discuss the broad implications of precise $N_\mathrm{eff}$ measurements for the radiation sector, big bang nucleosynthesis, light thermal relics, and other early-universe physics. The forecasts presented in this work are performed with the publicly released DRAFT (Dark Radiation Anisotropy Flowdown Team) tool. It provides an end-to-end pipeline from simulated foreground maps and component separation to delensing and projected sensitivities for any cosmological parameter, and it can be directly applied to other cosmic microwave background survey designs.
Trendafilova, Cynthia [Case Western Reserve U., CE↗