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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets

Countries worldwide are transforming their energy systems to achieve Carbon-Neutrality. Investing in renewable resources-based technologies and implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are common strategies to achieve higher sequestration levels. Negative emissions through Bioenergy with CCS are expected to play an essential role in the transition to full decarbonization. On top of that, biomass is a limited resource that depends on environmental factors, which create uncertainties related to the amount that can be sustainably provided to the energy system. Here this study emphasizes the relevance of variability in carbon sequestration for achieving climate targets by 2050. Here this paper proposes a probabilistic approach that integrates the Global Change Analysis Model for Latin America (GCAM-LA) with a chance constraint approach. GCAM-LA is used to assess the impact on the energy sector of different limits of sustainable biomass and carbon budget scenarios. The risk associated with exceeding the sequestration capacity of a given region is modeled via Chance Constraint. Results show that electrification is an appropriate long-term decarbonization strategy. It smoothes the effects of uncertainty in sequestration capacity and responds to end-user demands. For this case study, higher levels of electrification are obtained at likelihood levels >66% for end-use sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

Kerstman, Eric↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pathways to cost competitive and viable lithium production from Salton Sea geothermal brines

Lithium supply chains remain heavily concentrated in hard rock and brine resources, creating significant supply risks. Geothermal brines represent an underutilized alternative, yet commercial progress is hindered by the absence of facility-scale cost assessments. Here, we present a techno-economic analysis of large-scale lithium extraction from Salton Sea geothermal brines, drawing on primary company disclosures, process patents, and brine resource modeling. Caused by varying lithium and impurity concentrations, brine dilution over time, and process configurations (e.g., production via carbonation and conversion vs. electrolysis), we find that large-scale production costs may reach ~10,000 United States dollars per ton, but increase up to 22,000 United States dollars per ton with higher certainty of brine modeling, raising concerns about economic competitiveness to conventional low-cost sources. Finally, a project feasibility-focused scenario analyses shows that leveraging brine pre-treatment by-product sales could lower long-term lithium break-even prices by ~5,000 United States dollars per ton, whereas capital cost optimization of 20% could further reduce lithium break-even prices by 10%.

Wesselkaemper, Jannis↗
NASA NTRS2022

Tri-Agency Reliability Engineering Guidance: Post Mission Disposal and Extension Assessment

The Trilateral partners — the European Space Agency (ESA), Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the United States Government (USG) in their execution of safe and successful missions, have a long-standing history of sustaining the shared space environment of operational Earth-Moon orbits with their global space-stewardship, or spacekeeping, of these areas. This has driven missions to limit the generation of new and long-lived debris, control debris releases, minimize accidental explosions and collisions, and ensure Post-Mission Disposal of space systems, so that the environment remains safe for future operations and explorations. Given the continued need for space systems to support global mandatory infrastructure and commercial enterprise, spacefarers are extending beyond the Trilateral partners, more and smaller satellites are being deployed, and current assets are being utilized much longer than expected. This is making space more congested than ever; therefore, the Trilateral partners are evaluating potential future debris mitigation strategies, evolving technology, developing on-orbit servicing capabilities, and advancing their abilities to assess disposal and mission extension plans. They are also sharing their lessons learned and identifying opportunities for future state-of-the-art advancements for current and future space enterprises. Sustaining the space environment cannot be ensured by any one agency or country. Thus, the Trilateral authors have shared their lessons learned, insights, and guidance, herein, on disposal and mission extension assessment strategies with the gratitude of each agency. As such, this document is not prescriptive, but was formulated to enhance value-and-risk-balanced operational decision-making, support policy refinement, and guide spacefaring partners beyond these agencies to assess their activities in space with safety and a global space-stewardship, or spacekeeping, in mind. This includes not only the disposal and mission extension assessment addressed herein, but also preserving space history, ensuring collaboration/interoperability of technology, supporting fellow operators without interfering, and the utilization of in-situ resources for the common benefit of humankind. It is the intention of the Trilateral partners that this document evolves based on community lessons learned and the introduction of new assessment methodologies. So, all readers are encouraged to share their insights with the authors from their own application of this guidance or other strategies to ensure each mission has a successful, safe, and judicious life and conclusion.

ESA↗
NASA NTRS1984

Automated ultrareliability models - A review

Analytic models are required to assess the reliability of systems designed to ultrareliability requirements. This paper reviews the capabilities and limitations of five currently available automated reliability models which are applicable to fault-tolerant flight control systems. 'System' includes sensors, computers, and actuators. A set of review criteria including validation, configuration adaptability, and resource requirements for model evaluation are described. Five models, ARIES, CARE II, CARE III, CARSRA, and CAST, are assessed against the criteria, thereby characterizing their capabilities and limitations. This review should be helpful to potential users of the models.

Bridgman, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS1975

SEASAT economic assessment. Volume 6: Arctic operations case study and generalization

The hypothetical development and transportation of Arctic oil and other resources by ice breaking super tanker fleets to the continental East Coast are discussed. The utilization of SEASAT ice mapping data is shown to contribute to a more effective transportation operation through the Arctic ice by reducing transportation costs as a consequence of reduced transit time per voyage.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2021

Delaware Ecological Forecasting: Assessing Land Cover and Soil to Identify Suitable Sites for Tidal Marsh Migration in Delaware

Tidal wetlands provide vital resources for the state of Delaware, crucial not only for maintaining important ecosystem functions, but also for providing human populations with substantial services. Healthy wetland networks offer protection from severe weather, reduce flooding, improve water quality, and provide opportunities for education and recreation. However, human activities in combination with natural events, continue to cause substantial loss of wetland cover and damage wetland health. Over the last thirty years, the state of Delaware has experienced a net loss of roughly 5,000 acres of wetland. In collaboration with the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control (DNREC), the team used NASA Earth observations including Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals (GPM IMERG) to develop a methodology to monitor recent changes in wetland cover and forecast landward marsh migration due to sea-level rise, changes to climate, and human development. Trend analysis of current and past climate conditions in precipitation and temperature revealed an overall increase in both metrics. Using Land Change Modeler in TerrSet and Suitability Modeler in ArcGIS Pro, the team visualized landcover shifts over the last 20 years, indicating a general pattern of net wetland loss and identified locations where marsh migration could potentially occur in the future. These observations will enable better planning for restoration activities and in form decision-making to preserve wetland health and ecosystem functions.

McKenna Brahler↗
DOE OSTI2022

Material Flow Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment of Polyethylene Terephthalate and Polyolefin Plastics Supply Chains in the United States

Plastics are useful and beneficial materials that contribute to an improved quality of life, yet they generate significant solid wastes and emissions and consume significant energy resources. Systems analysis is incomplete on current linear production systems of plastics supply chains and their associated processes. Our study combines material flow and life cycle assessment data sets of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and the main polyolefin polymers in the United States, comprising over 70% of plastics flows. This study estimates the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption of these supply chains, including transportation and end-of-life processes, lacking in prior studies. Here we calculate annual GHG emissions and energy consumption of these plastic supply chains to be 101 MMT CO 2 -eq and 3248 PJ in 2019, respectively. The GHG emissions of these supply chains represented 1.5% of the total U.S. emissions and 5% of the total U.S. industry-related GHG emissions. The total energy consumption of these supply chains represented 3.1% of the total U.S. energy consumption in 2019. Transportation of PET and polyolefin plastic materials contributes 5% and 2% to the total supply chain GHG emissions and energy consumption, respectively. This baseline study provides a benchmark and enables a comparison to future circular production systems for plastics in the United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Eastern Interconnection Wide-Area Oscillation Assessment and Study Report

To meet the government mandates such as Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), conventional synchronous generators with rotating mass are being displaced by inverter-based resources (IBRs), leading to high penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). As a result, the inherent properties and characteristics of the transformed generation mix may significantly impact the grid behaviour, and it is of paramount significance that the impact and the consequences of the resource mix change is thoroughly understood to adopt measures to maintain reliable grid operations. Of great concern is the inter-area low-frequency oscillation, which usually propagates through a large region and has a system-wide impact. Such oscillations may lead to unnecessary or inadvertent tripping of generators, that may be simply reacting to the oscillation originating from geographically remote sites. Such tripping of generators can lead to cascading outages, system split and load loss events. Over the years, several system-wide oscillation events have been observed across all three North American interconnections. This project titled Wide-area Oscillation Assessment and Trending Study, sponsored by the Office of Electricity (OE) of the Department of Energy (DOE), aims to conduct the required research to capture and investigate the potential changes in wide-area oscillatory performance of the system as a result of resource mix transition. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted this research and technical staff of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) served as advisors to the project. The primary objective of this study is to assess whether there are significant trends in the power system wide-area oscillatory behaviours, as a result of the generation-mix changes due to the increased penetration of RES in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection (EI). The analysis presented in this report can serve as reference for future grid planning and operation of the EI system. This research conducted in this project evaluates the wide-area oscillatory behaviour of the EI, using a model-based approach for potential future resource mixes, and the measurement-based analysis with 21-month phasor measurement unit (PMU) time series. The oscillation modes in EI system along with the impact of the changes of the generation mix on the frequency and damping ratio (DR) of the oscillations have been studied.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring and predicting the health of physical systems. Prognostics algorithms are useful in that they can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system state throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. However, effective prognosis can be challenging to achieve in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for some prognostics applications. In this work, we implement three new algorithmic approaches to prediction (sampling methods, variable prediction time step, variable prediction sample size) with the goal of improving computational efficiency while minimizing decrease in model accuracy. To quantitatively analyze our results, we examine a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. Notably, through this work it was found that none of the sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. However, our results show that prediction accuracy is highly dependent on the time step used, and that an appropriate time step can optimize both model accuracy and simulation efficiency. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment in an application-specific manner may prove useful in some applications. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency of prognosis.

Prognostics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Preliminary Assessment of Potential for Wind Energy Technology on the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Reservation

Wind energy can provide renewable and sustainable electricity to Native American reservations, including rural homes, and power schools and businesses on reservations. It can also provide tribes with a source of income and economic development. The purpose of this paper is to determine the potential for deploying community and utility-scale wind renewable technologies on the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa tribal lands. Ideal areas for wind technology development were investigated based on annual wind resources, terrain, land usage, and other factors such as culturally sensitive sites. The result is a preliminary assessment of wind energy potential on Turtle Mountain lands, which can be used to justify further investigation and investment into determining the feasibility of future wind technology projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2002

Factors in International Space Station Integration Feasibility Assessments

The International Space Station, ISS, is a growing vehicle. The ISS configuration changes internally and externally with each ISS flight. Each flight adds resources and capabilities such as docking/berthing ports, power, stowage volume, heat rejection, and data processing capability. The configuration, capabilities and performance characteristics of the vehicle will be in flux until assembly complete. At the same time the knowledge about what is required to support humans involved in long duration space flight is also being greatly expanded. In addition to the changes occurring on-orbit, the situation on the ground is also very dynamic. Proposals for new ISS elements, proposed deletions of elements, changes to the ISS requirements, and changes to the planned configuration are always under evaluation. Furthermore, budgetary issues have driven the need to explore alternative options for the ISS . This environment has made the role of the technical integrator in the ISS program unique in that the baseline against which proposals are evaluated is always changing. The nature of the International Space Station Program adds another dimension to the integrators task. ISS program activities are spread across several centers: KSC, MSFC, GRC, DFRC, ARC and JSc. There are six International Partners/participants each with their own unique organizations. The prime contractor is in Texas, California and Alabama. And, the Space Shuttle Program as the launch vehicle provider is another major interface. In spite of the fluidity of the technical baseline, projections and organizational complexity, in the course of evaluating proposals and producing feasibility assessments there are factors, which frequently emerge as significant. These factors tend to be the limiting conditions when they come into play. The finite resources, which tend to limit the options for ISS are: upmass, life support and crew rescue capability, crew time, utilities, exercise equipment, and docking/berthing ports. Upmass requirements need to be developed for each option proposed. Short term and long term impacts to upmass are the result of the implementation and long term operations. The upmass requirements need to be met by the existing launch vehicles and any change in flight rate will be a significant cost driver. In addition, when any item is brought to the ISS careful consideration must be given to the on-board stowage and crew time available to unpack, transfer, stow and use these items. If stowage is not available then something must be returned, use of non-standard stowage negotiated or the item in question stays on the ground. Additional crew time requirements will impact available utilization time or crew off-duty time. When the human element is affected, such as, by increasing the number of crew members or changing the duration of the crew stay (longer or shorter) there is an additional set of factors that come into play. The main considerations are: rescue capability, exercise requirements and availability of equipment, resupply, and life support capability.

Watson, Patricia M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

RADAI: A Large-Scale Realistic Dataset for Radiation Detection Algorithm Development

Open, realistic datasets are essential for developing and benchmarking radiation detection algorithms, yet they remain scarce. The Radiological Anomaly Detection and Identification (RADAI) project was develop to create datasets that meet the training and testing needs for sophisticated radiation detection algorithms. The RADAI dataset is a large-scale synthetic resource that integrates high-fidelity Monte Carlo simulations with realistic urban scenarios to capture both background variability and source signatures. RADAI models construction-material NORM, people and vehicles, urban clutter, and dynamic environmental effects such as cosmic-ray and rain-induced transients, and they provide list-mode detector data with motion and response modeling suitable for algorithm training and evaluation. The RADAI project resulted in three publicly-released complementary datasets together with an online scoring portal for standardized performance assessment and an open software toolkit that supports data access, augmentation, model development, and evaluation. These resources enable reproducible comparisons across methods and promote rigorous studies at the scale required by contemporary machine learning. By grounding algorithm development in realistic, well-documented conditions, RADAI supports progress toward more robust detection, identification, and localization in complex urban environments.

Ghawaly, James M. [Division of Computer Science an↗
NASA NTRS1981

AgRISTARS: Agriculture and resources inventory surveys through aerospace remote sensing

The major objectives and FY 1980 accomplishments are described of a long term program designed to determine the usefulness, cost, and extent to which aerospace remote sensing data can be integrated into existing or future USDA systems to improve the objectivity, reliability, timeliness, and adequacy of information. A general overview, the primary and participating agencies, and the technical highlights of each of the following projects are presented: early warning/crop condition assessment; foreign commodity production forecasting; yield model development; supporting research; soil moisture; domestic crops and land cover; renewable resources inventory; and conservation and pollution.

Source record↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

From IMM to IMPACT: Enhanced Functionality for Exploration Missions

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is an evidence-based decision support tool used to assess medical risk and optimize medical systems for manned spaceflight missions. The IMM is baselined to the International Space Station (ISS) in terms of the spaceflight environment of low earth orbit and the ISS medical resource capability. IMPACT is the next generation evidence-based decision support tool currently under development by the Human Research Program to assess medical risk and optimize medical systems for future exploration missions to the moon and Mars. IMPACT is being designed to provide a comprehensive integrated suite of decision support tools for mission planners. This presentation will focus on the lessons learned from IMM and the enhanced functionalities of IMPACT.

E L Kerstman↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Adaptive Irrigation Impacts on Water Scarcity in Nonstationary Environments—A Multi‐Agent Reinforcement Learning Approach

Abstract One major challenge in water resource management is to balance the uncertain and nonstationary water demands and supplies caused by the changing anthropogenic and hydroclimate conditions. To address this issue, we developed a reinforcement learning agent‐based modeling (RL‐ABM) framework where agents (agriculture water users) are able to learn and adjust water demands based on their interactions with the water systems. The intelligent agents are created by a reinforcement learning algorithm adapted from the Q‐learning algorithm. We illustrated this framework in a case study where the RL‐ABM is two‐way coupled with the Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS), a long‐term planning model used for the administration of the Colorado River Basin, for assessing agriculture water uses impacts on water scarcity. Seventy‐eight intelligent agents are simulated, which can be grouped into three categories based on their parameter values: the “aggressive” (swift actions; low regrets), the “forward‐looking conservative” (mild actions; high regrets; fast learning), and the “myopic conservative” (mild actions; median regrets; slow learning). The ABM‐CRSS results showed that the major reservoirs in the Upper Colorado Basin might experience more frequent water shortages due to the increasing water uses compared to the original CRSS results. If the drought continues, the case study also demonstrates that agents can learn and adjust their demands.

Hung, Fengwei↗
NASA NTRS2019

Current NASA In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) Strategic Vision

Perform development to TRL 5/6 through ground demonstration in relevant environment. Perform component/subscale subsystem flight demonstrations on small/mid-size landers. Assess and characterize water in volatiles in lunar polar shadowed regions and craters. Reduce risk of ISRU for mission critical consumables through Integrated End-to-End Flight Demonstrations (pilot scale). Establish initial Human Mission Scale production capability to promote sustainable operations and as anchor for commercial involvement. Identify and characterize polar region environment and resources/volatiles for Science and future Exploration/Commercial applications. Provide ground-truth physical, mineral, and water/volatile resource characteristic information at multiple locations to provide geological context for science-focused theories of volatile placement and initial mining assessments.Test technologies and processes to reduce risk of future extraction/mining systems. Quantify concentration and lateral/vertical distribution of resources/volatiles. Utilize ISRU capabilities to Extend and Enhance Human Lunar Exploration Missions. Provide oxygen (and fuel) to enable reusable human lunar lander (10+ MT/yr O2)Process carbon-based crew waste/trash into gases and propellants; can reduce logistics while minimizing public perception issues (alternative is conversion to radiation shielding). Scavenge unused propellants and hardware from spent landers. Metal extraction from regolith as feedstock for in situ and in space manufacturing demonstrations. Civil engineering and construction aimed at future outpost/infrastructure build-up. Develop and Demonstrate ISRU for Human Mars Missions. ISRU for propellant production (10-15 MT/yr); Liquefy, store, transfer, and refuel ascent vehicle. Use Moon for operational experience and mission validation for Mars: Pre-deployment & remote activation and operation without crew. Storing and transferring mission consumables Landing crew with empty tanks with ISRU propellants already made and waiting. Support/Promote Commercialization of Space. Large scale polar ice mining (100+ MT/yr water)O2/H2 propulsion for landers/cis-lunar transportation with surface and in space depots. In situ construction and energy expansion at mining and human outpost site(s). ISRU Ground Development. Develop and advance ISRU technologies to enable acquisition of resources and processing into mission consumables. Utilize Multi-center collaboration with a portfolio that includes internal NASA work, external contracts, and collaborative agreements/partnerships. Where appropriate, develop lunar ISRU components and subsystems with a Mars-forward application. Engage industry through public-private partnerships to lay the foundation for long-term lunar and space economic development. Spin-in/spin-out technologies for terrestrial applications and industry (mining, oil & gas, alternative energy, construction). Flight Demonstration Path to Operational ISRU. Utilize small demonstrations with near off-the-shelf hardware to obtain critical information quickly on lunar resources and operations. Demonstrate critical technologies and processes that interact with lunar materials and environments. Perform 'pilot plant' demonstrations at architecture relevant scales and durations to reduce the risk for ISRU-provided products for critical human mission applications.

In-situ Resource Utilization↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sustaining On-going Risk Communication at the Riverton, Wyoming, Processing Site - 20310

An environmental risk assessment report has been completed to provide an updated assessment regarding current site conditions for the Riverton, Wyoming, Processing site. Argonne National Laboratory conducted the assessment in collaboration with the U.S Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Legacy Management (LM) and the Northern Arapaho Natural Resources Office (NANRO). The data quality objectives process conducted confirmed that data from plants growing on the Riverton site would be useful and would address an outstanding concern. Data available from site soil, groundwater, and surface water were also used in the assessment in conjunction with the new plant data. A plant survey was then conducted in 2018 to identify the plants at the Riverton site with known traditional Native American cultural uses for sampling and analysis. Laboratory analysis was conducted on the plant samples for the contaminants of concern. Samples were collected from plants growing on the groundwater plume area of the site, and the same was done for eight other areas not affected by the groundwater plume but still within the institutional control boundary. These eight areas served as reference areas for this study. This human health and ecological assessment update provide the quantitative risk information that was qualitatively addressed in a 1995 Risk Assessment Report on plants, livestock, and surface water exposures at the Riverton site [1]. The conditions at the Riverton site are protective of human health and the environment given the results of the update, in combination with past completed remedial action and ongoing monitoring activities and IC implementation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗