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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,333 records · Page 74
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Indicator Patterns of Forced Change Learned by an Artificial Neural Network

Abstract Many problems in climate science require the identification of signals obscured by both the “noise” of internal climate variability and differences across models. Following previous work, we train an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the year of a given map of annual‐mean temperature (or precipitation) from forced climate model simulations. This prediction task requires the ANN to learn forced patterns of change amidst a background of climate noise and model differences. We then apply a neural network visualization technique (layerwise relevance propagation) to visualize the spatial patterns that lead the ANN to successfully predict the year. These spatial patterns thus serve as “reliable indicators” of the forced change. The architecture of the ANN is chosen such that these indicators vary in time, thus capturing the evolving nature of regional signals of change. Results are compared to those of more standard approaches like signal‐to‐noise ratios and multilinear regression in order to gain intuition about the reliable indicators identified by the ANN. We then apply an additional visualization tool (backward optimization) to highlight where disagreements in simulated and observed patterns of change are most important for the prediction of the year. This work demonstrates that ANNs and their visualization tools make a powerful pair for extracting climate patterns of forced change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Crust and Upper Mantle Structure Beneath the Eastern United States

Abstract The Eastern United States (EUS) has a complex geological history and hosts several seismic active regions. We investigate the subsurface structure beneath the broader EUS. To produce reliable images of the subsurface, we simultaneously invert smoothed P‐wave receiver functions, Rayleigh‐wave phase and group velocity measurements, and Bouguer gravity observations for the 3D shear‐wave speed. Using surface‐wave observations (3–250 s) and spatially smoothed receiver functions, our velocity models are robust, reliable, and rich in detail. The shear‐wave velocity models fit all three types of observations well. The resulting velocity model for the eastern U.S. shows thinner crust beneath New England, the east coast, and the Mississippi Embayment (ME). A relatively thicker crust was found beneath the stable North America craton. A relatively slower upper mantle was imaged beneath New England, the east coast, and western ME. A comparison of crust thickness derived from our model against four recent published models shows first‐order consistency. A relatively small upper mantle low‐speed region correlates with a published P‐wave analysis that has associated the anomaly with a 75 Ma kimberlite volcanic site in Kentucky. We also explored the relationship between the subsurface structure and seismicity in the eastern U.S. We found that earthquakes often locate near regions with seismic velocity variations, but not universally. Not all regions of significant subsurface wave speed changes are loci of seismicity. A weak correlation between upper mantle shear velocity and earthquake focal mechanism has been observed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Observations of Mantle Seismic Anisotropy Using Array Techniques: Shear-Wave Splitting of Beamformed SmKS Phases

Shear-wave splitting measurements are commonly used to resolve seismic anisotropy in both the upper and lowermost mantle. Typically, such techniques are applied to SmKS phases that have reflected (m-1) times off the underside of the core-mantle boundary before being recorded. Practical constraints for shear-wave splitting studies include the limited number of suitable phases as well as the large fraction of available data discarded because of poor signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) or large measurement uncertainties. Array techniques such as beamforming are commonly used in observational seismology to enhance SNRs, but have not been applied before to improve SmKS signal strength and coherency for shear wave splitting studies. Here, we investigate how a beamforming methodology, based on slowness and backazimuth vespagrams to determine the most coherent incoming wave direction, can improve shear-wave splitting measurement confidence intervals. Through the analysis of real and synthetic seismograms, we show that (a) the splitting measurements obtained from the beamformed seismograms (beams) reflect an average of the single-station splitting parameters that contribute to the beam; (b) the beams have (on average) more than twice as large SNRs than the single-station seismograms that contribute to the beam; (c) the increased SNRs allow the reliable measurement of shear wave splitting parameters from beams down to average single-station SNRs of 1.3. Beamforming may thus be helpful to more reliably measure splitting due to upper mantle anisotropy. Moreover, here we show that beamforming holds potential to greatly improve detection of lowermost mantle anisotropy by demonstrating differential SKS–SKKS splitting analysis using beamformed USArray data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Revisiting the Definition of Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones by Clustering the Initial Intensity and Inner‐Core Size

Abstract Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) provides a great challenge in operational forecasting and contributes significantly to the development of major TCs. RI is commonly defined as an increase in the maximum sustained surface wind speed of at least a certain threshold within 24 hr. The most widely used threshold is 30 kt (15.4 m/s), which was determined statistically. Here we propose a new definition for RI by objectively clustering TCs using the intensification rate, initial intensity, and radius of the maximum wind speed (RMW). A group of 770 samples is separated at a threshold of 45 kt (23.2 m/s). The threshold is 40 kt (20.6 m/s) for the western North Atlantic, where TC size measurements are more reliable. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate that the proposed threshold is robust even considering the uncertainty in RMW of as high as 30 km. We show that, when a TC undergoes RI, its maximum wind speed is approximately 60 ± 15 kt (30.9 ± 7.7 m/s) and the RMW is 45 ± 20 km. The new threshold outperforms the conventional threshold of 30 kt/24 hr in describing the bimodal distribution of lifetime maximum intensity and explaining the annual count of Category 5 TCs. This new definition provides a more physically based threshold and describes a more reliable representation of extreme events. Although more comparisons are needed for operational application, it is likely to be desirable for case‐based process studies and could provide a more valuable metric for TC intensification classification and research.

Li, Yi↗
DOE OSTI2022

QRF4P-NRT: Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates Using Quantile Regression Forests

Accurate and reliable near-real-time satellite precipitation estimation is of great importance for operational large-scale flood forecasting and drought monitoring. The state-of-the-art precipitation post-processing model is based on a deterministic approach to construct relationships between satellites estimates and ground observations. We propose a probabilistic postprocessor, the Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates using Quantile Regression Forests (QRF4P-NRT), based on quantile modeling, yielding both deterministic and probabilistic predictions. The experimental design incorporates different solutions of near-real-time predictors to further improve the model performance. Using the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals Early Run for Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (IMERG-E) product as an example, we illustrate that the proposed method significantly improves the overall quality of the raw IMERG-E and is also superior to the bias-corrected product (IMERG Final Run, IMERG-F) at daily scale in a complex mountain basin. Evaluations of the corrected IMERG-E, raw IMERG-E, and IMERG-F using ground observation show that the corrected IMERG-E improves correlation coefficients (0.7), mean error (-0.14 mm/day) and root mean square error (3.3 mm/day) relative to the raw IMERG-E (0.31, -0.72 and 5.5 mm/day) and IMERG-F (0.34, -0.09 and 6.0 mm/day). The error decomposition further confirms that the QRF4P-NRT improves on the various deficiencies of the raw IMERG-E product. The ensemble assessment also demonstrates that the quantile outputs provide reliable prediction spread and sharp prediction intervals. The promising results indicate the great potential of the proposed method for probabilistic post-processing for near-real-time satellite precipitation estimates, and for further applications such as hydrological ensemble forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Optimization of Energy Recovery From Geothermal Reservoirs With Recurrent Neural Network Predictive Models

Improving the long-term energy production performance of geothermal reservoirs can be accomplished by optimizing field development and management plans. Reliable prediction models, however, are needed to evaluate and optimize the performance of the underlying reservoirs under various operation and development strategies. In traditional frameworks, physics-based simulation models are used to predict the energy production performance of geothermal reservoirs. However, detailed simulation models are not trivial to construct, require a reliable description of the reservoir conditions and properties, and entail high computational complexity. Data-driven predictive models can offer an efficient alternative for use in optimization workflows. This paper presents an optimization framework for net power generation in geothermal reservoirs using a variant of the recurrent neural network (RNN) as a data-driven predictive model. The RNN architecture is developed and trained to replace the simulation model for computationally efficient prediction of the objective function and its gradients with respect to the well control variables. The net power generation performance of the field is optimized by automatically adjusting the mass flow rate of production and injection wells over 12 years, using a gradient-based local search algorithm. Two field-scale examples are presented to investigate the performance of the developed data-driven prediction and optimization framework. Furthermore, the prediction and optimization results from the RNN model are evaluated through comparison with the results obtained by using a numerical simulation model of a real geothermal reservoir.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global-Scale Convergence Obscures Inconsistencies in Soil Carbon Change Predicted by Earth System Models

Soil carbon (C) responses to environmental change represent a major source of uncertainty in the global C cycle. Feedbacks between soil C stocks and climate drivers could impact atmospheric CO 2 levels, further altering the climate. Here, we assessed the reliability of Earth system model (ESM) predictions of soil C change using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). ESMs predicted global soil C gains under the high emission scenario, with soils taking up 43.9 Pg (95% CI: 9.2–78.5 Pg) C on average during the 21st century. The variation in global soil C change declined significantly from CMIP5 (with average of 48.4 Pg [95% CI: 2.0–94.9 Pg] C) to CMIP6 models (with average of 39.3 Pg [95% CI: 23.9–54.7 Pg] C). For some models, a small C increase in all biomes contributed to this convergence. For other models, offsetting responses between cold and warm biomes contributed to convergence. Although soil C predictions appeared to converge in CMIP6, the dominant processes driving soil C change at global or biome scales differed among models and in many cases between earlier and later versions of the same model. Random Forest models, for soil carbon dynamics, accounted for more than 63% variation of the global soil C change predicted by CMIP5 ESMs, but only 36% for CMIP6 models. Although most CMIP6 models apparently agree on increased soil C storage during the 21st century, this consensus obscures substantial model disagreement on the mechanisms underlying soil C response, calling into question the reliability of model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stress Testing California's Hydroclimatic Whiplash: Potential Challenges, Trade‐Offs and Adaptations in Water Management and Hydropower Generation

Abstract Inter‐annual precipitation in California is highly variable, and future projections indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydroclimatic “whiplash.” Understanding the implications of these shocks on California's water system and its degree of resiliency is critical from a planning perspective. Therefore, we quantify the resilience of reservoir services provided by water and hydropower systems in four basins in the western Sierra Nevada. Using downscaled runoff from 10 climate model outputs, we generated 200 synthetic hydrologic whiplash sequences of alternating dry and wet years to represent a wide range of extremes and transitional conditions used as inputs to a water system simulation model. Sequences were derived from upper (wet) and lower (dry) quintiles of future streamflow projections (2030–2060). Results show that carryover storage was negatively affected in all basins, particularly in those with lower storage capacity. All basins experienced negative impacts on hydropower generation, with losses ranging from 5% to nearly 90%. Reservoir sizes and inflexible operating rules are a particular challenge for flood control, as in extremely wet years spillage averaged nearly the annual basins' total discharge. The reliability of environmental flows and agricultural deliveries varied depending on the basin, intensity, and duration of whiplash sequences. Overall, wet years temporarily rebound negative drought effects, and greater storage capacity results in higher reliability and resiliency, and lesser volatility in services. We highlight potential policy changes to improve flexibility, increase resilience, and better equip managers to face challenges posed by whiplash while meeting human and environmental needs.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of a New Approach for Entrainment and Detrainment Rate Estimation

Entrainment and detrainment rates (ε and δ) constitute the most critical free parameters in mass flux schemes commonly employed for cumulus parameterizations. Recently, Zhu et al. (2021) introduced a new approach that utilizes aircraft observations to simultaneously estimate ε and δ for cumulus clouds, overcoming the limitation of other observation-based approaches that solely yield ε without offering insights into δ. This study aims to comprehensively evaluate the reliability of this new approach. First, evaluation using an Explicit Mixing Parcel Model demonstrates the capability of the new approach to back-calculate predetermined ε and δ based on the physical properties before and after the entrainment mixing. Second, evaluation using large-eddy simulations illustrates that the new approach yields consistent ε and δ profiles compared to the traditional approach. Sensitivity tests indicate a weak sensitivity of the estimated δ with the new approach to the entrained air source. A decrease in the proportion of cloudy air in the assumed detrained air leads to a reduction in the estimated δ, while ε remains unaffected. Finally, the most appropriate assumptions for entrained and detrained air are discussed. Estimating ε for cumulus parameterizations involves acquiring ambient air more than 500 m away from the cloud edge as entrained air. Due to implicit mean field approximations in the traditional approach, determining the optimal assumption for detrained air properties proves challenging. Finally, this study confirms the reliability of the new approach in estimating ε and δ, providing confidence in its application to extensive observational data and advancement in parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Permeability and Induced Polarization of Mudstones

Electrical measurements can be used to estimate hydraulic properties such as permeability ( k ) in sedimentary rocks. Previous work has focused on sandstones, siltstones, and carbonates, while investigations on mudstones have rarely been reported. In this study, we report on electrical geophysical measurements for 23 mudstone samples using an experimental approach designed to reliably saturate these low permeability mudstones. The modified Hagen-Poiseuille model linking permeability to the formation factor ( F ) and an effective pore radius ( r ) provides an excellent fit to the data set with a near-constant pore radius, indicating that the effective porosity (1/ F ) is the controlling factor on k . In these samples, the surface area normalized to pore volume ( S por ), frequently used in permeability estimation models, varies by 1–2 orders of magnitude and is thus not a reliable proxy of the inverse effective hydraulic radius. The formation factor also exerts the primary control on induced polarization (IP) parameters, whereas Spor shows no relation to the IP parameters. A strong linear relationship is found between IP parameters (imaginary conductivity and normalized chargeability) and surface conductivity, although the proportionality factor is significantly lower than those observed in more permeable rocks and sediments. Apparent relationships between the polarization strength-derived and time constant-derived geophysical length scales and the effective hydraulic radius appear to be driven by variations in the electrochemical parameters (i.e., specific polarizability and diffusion coefficient). Overall, these findings emphasize that predicting hydraulic properties from electrical measurements in fine-grained rocks remains challenging and requires further investigation into the electrochemical properties involved.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sedimentation and Nonlinear Trapping in Texas Reservoirs Identified Using Remote Sensing and Bathymetric Survey Records

Decreasing reservoir storage capacity due to sedimentation poses great challenges to aging U.S. reservoirs, as it reduces the efficacy and reliability of their socio‐economic services. However, systematic assessments of reservoir sedimentation rates and associated issues remain limited because of sparse and infrequent bathymetry survey data. In this study, we use remote sensing‐driven estimates of sediment concentrations to identify regions experiencing rapid reservoir capacity loss, as observed in repeated bathymetry surveys. Our analysis focuses on Texas, where one of the most reliable state‐level reservoir capacity loss data sets is available through a unique long‐term monitoring program by the Texas Water Development Board. We find that reservoirs with large storage capacities and high sedimentation rate are concentrated in Northeast Texas. We also show that reduced forest, increased barren land, and erosive soil properties are co‐varying with high reservoir sedimentation rates. Temporal changes in the longitudinal gradient of the remotely sensed sediment flux highlight the nonlinear nature of sediment trapping processes, and can be used to estimate the reservoir storage capacity loss over time. In combination with standard bathymetry surveys, our approach shows potential for more cost‐effective and frequent assessment of reservoir storage loss.

Lee, Jiyong [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000198957406)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Feedback regulation of crystal growth by buffering monomer concentration

Abstract Crystallization is a ubiquitous means of self-assembly that can organize matter over length scales orders of magnitude larger than those of the monomer units. Yet crystallization is notoriously difficult to control because it is exquisitely sensitive to monomer concentration, which changes as monomers are depleted during growth. Living cells control crystallization using chemical reaction networks that offset depletion by synthesizing or activating monomers to regulate monomer concentration, stabilizing growth conditions even as depletion rates change, and thus reliably yielding desired products. Using DNA nanotubes as a model system, here we show that coupling a generic reversible bimolecular monomer buffering reaction to a crystallization process leads to reliable growth of large, uniformly sized crystals even when crystal growth rates change over time. Buffering could be applied broadly as a simple means to regulate and sustain batch crystallization and could facilitate the self-assembly of complex, hierarchical synthetic structures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-energy and low-cost membrane-free chlorine flow battery

Abstract Grid-scale energy storage is essential for reliable electricity transmission and renewable energy integration. Redox flow batteries (RFB) provide affordable and scalable solutions for stationary energy storage. However, most of the current RFB chemistries are based on expensive transition metal ions or synthetic organics. Here, we report a reversible chlorine redox flow battery starting from the electrolysis of aqueous NaCl electrolyte and the as-produced Cl 2 is extracted and stored in the carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ) or mineral spirit flow. The immiscibility between the CCl 4 or mineral spirit and NaCl electrolyte enables a membrane-free design with an energy efficiency of >91% at 10 mA/cm 2 and an energy density of 125.7 Wh/L. The chlorine flow battery can meet the stringent price and reliability target for stationary energy storage with the inherently low-cost active materials (~$5/kWh) and the highly reversible Cl 2 /Cl − redox reaction.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage

Decarbonized power systems are critical to mitigate climate change, yet methods to achieve a reliable and resilient near-zero power system are still under exploration. This study develops an hourly power system simulation model considering high-resolution geological constraints for carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage to explore the optimal solution for a reliable and resilient near-zero power system. This is applied to 31 provinces in China by simulating 10,450 scenarios combining different electricity storage durations and interprovincial transmission capacities, with various shares of abated fossil power with carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage. Here, we show that allowing up to 20% abated fossil fuel power generation in the power system could reduce the national total power shortage rate by up to 9.0 percentages in 2050 compared with a zero fossil fuel system. A lowest-cost scenario with 16% abated fossil fuel power generation in the system even causes 2.5% lower investment costs in the network (or $16.8 billion), and also increases system resilience by reducing power shortage during extreme climatic events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthetic data-driven deep learning for label-free autonomous atomic force microscopy

Atomic force microscopy (AFM) is a widely used tool for nanoscale characterization across materials science, energy research, and biology. However, its adoption in high-throughput materials discovery and statistically driven studies remains limited by a strong dependence on expert operator input and by the scarcity of annotated experimental AFM datasets needed to enable data-driven automation. Here, we introduce SimuScan, a synthetic-data–driven framework that enables reliable AFM feature identification, segmentation, and targeted imaging without requiring large manually labeled experimental datasets. SimuScan generates tunable, high-fidelity synthetic AFM images of defined morphologies while incorporating realistic experimental artifacts, including tip–sample convolution, noise, flattening distortions, and surface debris. These datasets are shown to support scalable, label-free training of modern deep learning models for AFM analysis. When integrated into data-driven AFM workflows, SimuScan-trained models can locate and analyze nanoscale structures across large datasets and guide targeted follow-up imaging. We validate this approach on nanostructured surfaces, DNA assemblies, and bacterial cells, demonstrating robust generalization across diverse sample types with minimal operator intervention. More broadly, this work establishes a general strategy for generating explicitly conditioned, task-relevant synthetic data to improve the reliability of downstream models in autonomous microscopy.

Millan-Solsona, Ruben [Oak Ridge National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2022

The incongruity of validating quantitative proteomics using western blots

Similar to the age-old reviewer request for quantitative PCR validation of RNA sequencing data, nearly every researcher using proteomics technologies has, at one time or another, been asked by a reviewer to provide “western blot validation” of their mass spectrometry-based protein abundance data. We believe this request demonstrates a lack of awareness amongst the plant biology community about the extraordinary improvements in cost, sensitivity and reliability the field of mass spectrometry-based proteomics has made in recent years. Here, in this study, as a group of experts in different domains of quantitative plant proteomics, we explain why “western blot validation” of quantitative proteomics data is both unnecessary and invalid. Furthermore, we invite our colleagues in the plant science community to update their perception of quantitative mass spectrometry as a sensitive and reliable method of protein identification and quantitation.

Mehta, Devang↗
DOE OSTI2021

Finite-size correction for slab supercell calculations of materials with spontaneous polarization

Abstract The repeated slab approach has become a de facto standard to accurately describe surface properties of materials by density functional theory calculations with periodic boundary conditions. For materials exhibiting spontaneous polarization, we show that the conventional scheme of passivation with pseudo hydrogen is unable to realize a charge-neutral surface. The presence of a net surface charge induces via Gauss’s law a macroscopic electric field through the slab and results in poor size convergence with respect to the thickness of the slab. We propose a modified passivation method that accounts for the effect of spontaneous polarization, describes the correct bulk limits and boosts convergence with respect to slab thickness. The robustness, reliability, and superior convergence of energetics and electronic structure achieved by the proposed method are demonstrated using the example of polar ZnO surfaces.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting the synthesizability of crystalline inorganic materials from the data of known material compositions

Abstract Reliably identifying synthesizable inorganic crystalline materials is an unsolved challenge required for realizing autonomous materials discovery. In this work, we develop a deep learning synthesizability model ( SynthNN ) that leverages the entire space of synthesized inorganic chemical compositions. By reformulating material discovery as a synthesizability classification task, SynthNN identifies synthesizable materials with 7× higher precision than with DFT-calculated formation energies. In a head-to-head material discovery comparison against 20 expert material scientists, SynthNN outperforms all experts, achieves 1.5× higher precision and completes the task five orders of magnitude faster than the best human expert. Remarkably, without any prior chemical knowledge, our experiments indicate that SynthNN learns the chemical principles of charge-balancing, chemical family relationships and ionicity, and utilizes these principles to generate synthesizability predictions. The development of SynthNN will allow for synthesizability constraints to be seamlessly integrated into computational material screening workflows to increase their reliability for identifying synthetically accessible materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗