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At least 1,333 records · Page 74

Prediction of Weather Impacted Airport Capacity using Ensemble Learning

Ensemble learning with the Bagging Decision Tree (BDT) model was used to assess the impact of weather on airport capacities at selected high-demand airports in the United States. The ensemble bagging decision tree models were developed and validated using the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) data and weather forecast at these airports. The study examines the performance of BDT, along with traditional single Support Vector Machines (SVM), for airport runway configuration selection and airport arrival rates (AAR) prediction during weather impacts. Testing of these models was accomplished using observed weather, weather forecast, and airport operation information at the chosen airports. The experimental results show that ensemble methods are more accurate than a single SVM classifier. The airport capacity ensemble method presented here can be used as a decision support model that supports air traffic flow management to meet the weather impacted airport capacity in order to reduce costs and increase safety.

Weather impact↗

Radiation Quality Effects on Transcriptome Profiles in 3-d Cultures After Particle Irradiation

In this work, we evaluate the differential effects of low- and high-LET radiation on 3-D organotypic cultures in order to investigate radiation quality impacts on gene expression and cellular responses. Reducing uncertainties in current risk models requires new knowledge on the fundamental differences in biological responses (the so-called radiation quality effects) triggered by heavy ion particle radiation versus low-LET radiation associated with Earth-based exposures. We are utilizing novel 3-D organotypic human tissue models that provide a format for study of human cells within a realistic tissue framework, thereby bridging the gap between 2-D monolayer culture and animal models for risk extrapolation to humans. To identify biological pathway signatures unique to heavy ion particle exposure, functional gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was used with whole transcriptome profiling. GSEA has been used extensively as a method to garner biological information in a variety of model systems but has not been commonly used to analyze radiation effects. It is a powerful approach for assessing the functional significance of radiation quality-dependent changes from datasets where the changes are subtle but broad, and where single gene based analysis using rankings of fold-change may not reveal important biological information. We identified 45 statistically significant gene sets at 0.05 q-value cutoff, including 14 gene sets common to gamma and titanium irradiation, 19 gene sets specific to gamma irradiation, and 12 titanium-specific gene sets. Common gene sets largely align with DNA damage, cell cycle, early immune response, and inflammatory cytokine pathway activation. The top gene set enriched for the gamma- and titanium-irradiated samples involved KRAS pathway activation and genes activated in TNF-treated cells, respectively. Another difference noted for the high-LET samples was an apparent enrichment in gene sets involved in cycle cycle/mitotic control. It is plausible that the enrichment in these particular pathways results from the complex DNA damage resulting from high-LET exposure where repair processes are not completed during the same time scale as the less complex damage resulting from low-LET radiation.

Patel, Z. S.↗

Prediction of laser beam spatial profiles in a high-energy laser facility by use of deep learning

We adapt the significant advances achieved recently in the field of generative artificial intelligence/machine-learning to laser performance modeling in multipass, high-energy laser systems with application to high-shot-rate facilities relevant to inertial fusion energy. Advantages of neural-network architectures include rapid prediction capability, data-driven processing, and the possibility to implement such architectures within future low-latency, low-power consumption photonic networks. Four models were investigated that differed in their generator loss functions and utilized the U-Net encoder/decoder architecture with either a reconstruction loss alone or combined with an adversarial network loss. We achieved inference times of 1.3 ms for a 256 × 256 pixel near-field beam with errors in predicted energy of the order of 1% over most of the energy range. It is shown that prediction errors are significantly reduced by ensemble averaging the models with different weight initializations. These results suggest that including the temporal dimension in such models may provide accurate, real-time spatiotemporal predictions of laser performance in high-shot-rate laser systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Space Station dynamic modeling, control and simulation

Dynamic disturbances of many orders of magnitude greater than those of conventional spacecraft will be routine for the Space Station. Accurate knowledge of inflight structural dynamics and disturbances will be lacking. System identification will reduce uncertainties. To deal with the remaining model errors and time-varying elements, adaptive control may be required. Dynamic models for two Space Station configurations are derived. A direct model reference adaptive control algorithm is synthesized and evaluated with respect to the station model parameter errors and plant dynamics truncations. Both the rigid body and the flexible modes are treated. Simulation results show that convergence of the adaptive algorithm can be achieved in 100 to about 300 seconds with reasonable performance even during Shuttle hard docking operations in which station mass and inertia are instantaneously changed by more than 100 percent.

Ih, C.-H. C.↗

Climate Sensitivity and the Direct Effect of Carbon Dioxide in a Limited-Area Cloud-Resolving Model

Even in a small domain, it can be prohibitively expensive to run cloud-resolving greenhouse gas warming experiments due to the long equilibration time. Here, a technique is introduced that reduces the computational cost of these experiments by an order of magnitude: instead of fixing the carbon dioxide concentration and equilibrating the sea surface temperature (SST), this technique fixes the SST and equilibrates the carbon dioxide concentration. Using this approach in a cloud-resolving model of radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE), the equilibrated SST is obtained as a continuous function of carbon dioxide concentrations spanning 1 ppmv to nearly 10 000 ppmv, revealing a dramatic increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) at higher temperatures. This increase in ECS is due to both an increase in forcing and a decrease in the feedback parameter. In addition, the technique is used to obtain the direct effects of carbon dioxide (i.e., the rapid adjustments) over a wide range of SSTs. Overall, the direct effect of carbon dioxide offsets a quarter of the increase in precipitation from warming, reduces the shallow cloud fraction by a small amount, and has no impact on convective available potential energy (CAPE).

Romps, David M.↗

Laboratory scaled simulation of lidar cloud sounding experiments

The results of lidar measurements carried out on laboratory scale models of clouds are presented. Measurements on laboratory scale models are important since one has the knowledge of the relevant parameters of the diffusing medium, such as: scattering and absorption coefficients, phase function, homogeneity, shape, etc. Knowledge of these parameters enables one to use the results to test the reliability of theoretical and numerical investigations. To obtain a laboratory scaled model of a lidar system sounding a cloud, it is necessary to scale down all the geometrical quantities by the same factor to reduce distances of the order of kilometers to the order of meters, keeping the size and the optical depth of the diffusers unchanged. If a time resolution of the order of nanoseconds is necessary for a lidar sounding actual clouds, the corresponding time resolution for the laboratory model should be of the order of picoseconds. It is possible to obtain this resolution by using picosecond laser systems and fast electrooptical detectors like the streak camera. The results of the laboratory measurements showed that the multiple scattering effect strongly depends on the size of the diffusers, as well as on the concentration. The experimental results were compared with the numerical results of a Monte Carlo code. A generally good agreement was obtained.

Zaccanti, G.↗

Improved reference system for the corrected rigid spheres equation of state model

The Corrected Rigid Spheres (CRIS) EOS model, developed from fluid perturbation theory using a hard sphere reference system, has been successfully used to calculate the EOS of many materials, including gases and metals. The radial distribution function (RDF) plays a pivotal role in choosing the sphere diameter, through a variational principle, as well as the thermodynamic response. Despite its success, the CRIS model has some shortcomings in that it predicts too large a temperature for liquid-vapor critical points, can break down at large compression, and is computationally expensive. In this paper, we first demonstrate that an improved analytic representation of the hard sphere RDF does not alleviate these issues. Relaxing the strict adherence of the RDF to hard spheres allows an accurate fit to the isotherms and vapor dome of the Lennard-Jones fluid using an arbitrary reference system. Second order correction are eliminated, limiting the breakdown at large compression and significantly reducing the computation cost. The transferrability of the new model to real systems is demonstrated on argon, with an improved vapor dome compared to the original CRIS model.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A general framework for quantifying uncertainty at scale

Abstract In many fields of science, comprehensive and realistic computational models are available nowadays. Often, the respective numerical calculations call for the use of powerful supercomputers, and therefore only a limited number of cases can be investigated explicitly. This prevents straightforward approaches to important tasks like uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. This challenge can be overcome via our recently developed sensitivity-driven dimension-adaptive sparse grid interpolation strategy. The method exploits, via adaptivity, the structure of the underlying model (such as lower intrinsic dimensionality and anisotropic coupling of the uncertain inputs) to enable efficient and accurate uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis at scale. Here, we demonstrate the efficiency of this adaptive approach in the context of fusion research, in a realistic, computationally expensive scenario of turbulent transport in a magnetic confinement tokamak device with eight uncertain parameters, reducing the effort by at least two orders of magnitude. In addition, we show that this refinement method intrinsically provides an accurate surrogate model that is nine orders of magnitude cheaper than the high-fidelity model.

Farcaş, Ionuţ-Gabriel (ORCID:0000000238841580)↗

Surface Roughness Effects from Additive Manufacturing in High Efficiency Gas Turbine Combustion Systems

In the past, clean combustion systems were characterized by high system development costs due to growing complexity and escalating manufacturing costs from conventional manufacturing processes. As a result, high efficiency concepts are difficult to design and more difficult to be cost-effectively manufactured. In recent years, with the introduction of additive manufacturing (AM) technologies, the rapid prototyping and mass production processes of clean combustion systems are promising to be significantly simplified with significant reduction in terms of engine manufacturing cost and engine energy cost. Compared with conventional manufacturing built parts, the AM process enabled a simpler design to be adopted for the nozzle, reducing the number of required braze and weld joints from twenty-five to just five. The resulting nozzle was 25% lighter and five times more durable and contributed to a 15% reduction in fuel burn in comparison with the previous model produced. Applying these improvements to a fleet of 5,000 turbofan engines at 150 kN thrust would result in fuel cost savings of $ \$ $6B annually (at $ \$ $5/gallon Jet-A fuel price, 700 gallon/hour fuel consumption rate, and 2,300 operational hours per year), and reduce CO2 emissions by more than 25 million tons per year. These advances support core Department of Energy (DOE) missions in energy efficiency, improving productivity, and environmental sustainability. Maximizing the benefit of these new capabilities will require high prediction capability of high speed turbulent flow with wall modeled Large Eddy Simulation (LES). GE Aviation maintains that advanced simulation technology and supercomputing is required in order to provide the appropriate boundary conditions to realize the maximum potential of AM and Ceramic Matrix Composite to reduce cooling flow, a first order penalty on the Brayton cycle. The algorithm developed using the ANSYS/Fluent software would provide the foundation for entirely new avenues of research and development with potential multi-billion dollar impact to the US economy, and significant reduction in carbon based emissions across the aerospace and power generation industries. The formulation of this iWLES (integral wall model for LES) is generic and allows to capture the changes in flow dynamics that have a significant impact on the wall bounded flow characteristics, such as swirler effective area, bulk swirl number, local pressure distribution, exit velocity profile, and turbulence kinetic energy profile. A periodic channel flow with rough flat plate is simulated using LES (Wall-Adapting Local Eddy-viscosity) model to verify the implementation of iWLES in the Fluent User Defined Function (UDF). As the flow fields are highly sensitive due to surface roughness of the wall bounded flows in the combustion systems, there is significant potential to conduct further LES studies focusing on the turbulence boundary layer interaction. Accurately capturing near wall physics will elucidate the impact of rough surfaces on combustor flow and aero-thermal interactions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Surface Roughness Effects from Additive Manufacturing in High Efficiency Gas Turbine Combustion Systems

In the past, clean combustion systems were characterized by high system development costs due to growing complexity and escalating manufacturing costs from conventional manufacturing processes. As a result, high efficiency concepts are difficult to design and more difficult to be cost-effectively manufactured. In recent years, with the introduction of additive manufacturing (AM) technologies, the rapid prototyping and mass production processes of clean combustion systems are promising to be significantly simplified with significant reduction in terms of engine manufacturing cost and engine energy cost. Compared with conventional manufacturing built parts, the AM process enabled a simpler design to be adopted for the nozzle, reducing the number of required braze and weld joints from twenty-five to just five. The resulting nozzle was 25% lighter and five times more durable and contributed to a 15% reduction in fuel burn in comparison with the previous model produced. Applying these improvements to a fleet of 5,000 turbofan engines at 150 kN thrust would result in fuel cost savings of $6B annually (at $5/gallon Jet-A fuel price, 700 gallon/hour fuel consumption rate, and 2,300 operational hours per year),and reduce CO2 emissions by more than 25 million tons per year. These advances support core Department of Energy (DOE)missions in energy efficiency, improving productivity, and environmental sustainability. Maximizing the benefit of these new capabilities will require high prediction capability of high speed turbulent flow with wall modeled Large Eddy Simulation (LES). GE Aviation maintains that advanced simulation technology and supercomputing is required in order to provide the appropriate boundary conditions to realize the maximum potential of AM and Ceramic Matrix Composite to reduce cooling flow, a first order penalty on the Brayton cycle. The algorithm developed using the ANSYS/Fluent software would provide the foundation for entirely new avenues of research and development with potential multi-billion dollar impact to the US economy, and significant reduction in carbon based emissions across the aerospace and power generation industries. The formulation of this iWLES (integral wall model for LES) is generic and allows to capture the changes in flow dynamics that have a significant impact on the wall bounded flow characteristics, such as swirler effective area, bulk swirl number, local pressure distribution, exit velocity profile, and turbulence kinetic energy profile. A periodic channel flow with rough flat plate is simulated using LES (Wall-Adapting Local Eddy-viscosity) model to verify the implementation of iWLES in the Fluent User Defined Function (UDF). As the flow fields are highly sensitive due to surface roughness of the wall bounded flows in the combustion systems, there is significant potential to conduct further LES studies focusing on the turbulence boundary layer interaction. Accurately capturing near wall physics will elucidate the impact of rough surfaces on combustor flow and aero-thermal interactions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Multi-Fidelity Scheme for Accelerating 4D Finite Element Analysis for Mircoreactors

Next-generation microreactors are currently being designed to be operated terrestrial and extraterrestrial for remote surface power production. These systems will provide an alternative source of carbon-free energy that is versatile and can be utilized for various applications. These applications of microreactors have prompted the usage of high-fidelity unstructured finite element (FE) based approaches to provide time-dependent solutions for multiple physics fields. Computing these high-fidelity (4-D) solutions for multiple design iterations, physics fields, and transient events requires an immense computational cost. These high-fidelity solutions are computational expensive and the cost can be reduced through the implementation of less accurate low-fidelity solutions. Unlike the current fleet of commercial nuclear reactors, these next-gen systems present challenges due to the material and physical limitations required. Due to these constraints, the brute force technique of parameterizing important system characteristics determines whether a design meets the project objective. A system such as a nuclear reactor could have thousands of design parameters that affect system performance. In order to analyze the entire parameter space of such a complex system would require millions of CPU hours and countless design iterations. This costly approach is not practical due to regulatory and budget limitations. In this proposal, an approach that utilizes hybrid high-fidelity and low-fidelity FE models to reduce the computational cost of evaluating these applications in 4-D will be presented. The accuracy of the high-fidelity model and the computational efficiency of the low-fidelity model are taken advantage of to produce a solution that closely resembles the full order high-fidelity solution. By utilizing an unconverged coarse FE mesh, operation limits such as temperature, structural loading, etc., can be evaluated in an accelerated fashion and then can be spatially interpolated onto a finer mesh. The resulting error arising from the coarse mesh can be mitigated with a discrepancy function that actively quantifies and corrects the error in the coarse solution. This discrepancy function can be periodically updated with high-fidelity calculations across the temporal domain thus requiring less iterations on the fine mesh. As a result, the computational cost can be reduced for the evaluation and design iteration of microreactors. The proposal for this research contains three sections: Section 2 provides a literature review, Section 3 outlines the methodology for the proposed multi-fidelity scheme, and Section 4 displays preliminary results of the proposed research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Convergence in simulating global soil organic carbon by structurally different models after data assimilation

Abstract Current biogeochemical models produce carbon–climate feedback projections with large uncertainties, often attributed to their structural differences when simulating soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics worldwide. However, choices of model parameter values that quantify the strength and represent properties of different soil carbon cycle processes could also contribute to model simulation uncertainties. Here, we demonstrate the critical role of using common observational data in reducing model uncertainty in estimates of global SOC storage. Two structurally different models featuring distinctive carbon pools, decomposition kinetics, and carbon transfer pathways simulate opposite global SOC distributions with their customary parameter values yet converge to similar results after being informed by the same global SOC database using a data assimilation approach. The converged spatial SOC simulations result from similar simulations in key model components such as carbon transfer efficiency, baseline decomposition rate, and environmental effects on carbon fluxes by these two models after data assimilation. Moreover, data assimilation results suggest equally effective simulations of SOC using models following either first‐order or Michaelis–Menten kinetics at the global scale. Nevertheless, a wider range of data with high‐quality control and assurance are needed to further constrain SOC dynamics simulations and reduce unconstrained parameters. New sets of data, such as microbial genomics‐function relationships, may also suggest novel structures to account for in future model development. Overall, our results highlight the importance of observational data in informing model development and constraining model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modular design attitude control system

A sequence of single axismodels and a series of reduced state linear observers of minimum order are used to reconstruct inaccessible variables pertaining to the modular attitude control of a rigid body flexible suspension model of a flexible spacecraft. The single axis models consist of two, three, four, and five rigid bodies, each interconnected by a flexible shaft passing through the mass centers of the bodies. Modal damping is added to each model. Reduced state linear observers are developed for synthesizing the inaccessible modal state variables for each modal model.

Chichester, F. D.↗

Deep learning of dynamically responsive chemical Hamiltonians with semiempirical quantum mechanics

Conventional machine-learning (ML) models in computational chemistry learn to directly predict molecular properties using quantum chemistry only for reference data. While these heuristic ML methods show quantum-level accuracy with speeds several orders of magnitude faster than traditional quantum chemistry methods, they suffer from poor extensibility and transferability; i.e., their accuracy degrades on large or new chemical systems. Incorporating quantum chemistry frameworks into the ML models directly solves this problem. Here we take the structure of semiempirical quantum mechanics (SEQM) methods to construct dynamically responsive Hamiltonians. SEQM methods use empirical parameters fitted to experimental properties to construct reduced-order Hamiltonians, facilitating much faster calculations than ab initio methods but with compromised accuracy. By replacing these static parameters with machine-learned dynamic values inferred from the local environment, we greatly improve the accuracy of the SEQM methods. Trained on molecular energies and atomic forces, these dynamically generated Hamiltonian parameters show a strong correlation with atomic hybridization and bonding. Trained with only about 60,000 small organic molecular conformers, the resulting model retains interpretability, extensibility, and transferability when testing on much larger chemical systems and predicting various molecular properties. Overall, this work demonstrates the virtues of incorporating physics-based descriptions with ML to develop models that are simultaneously accurate, transferable, and interpretable.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Stochastic simulations of temporally and spatially variable Fe cycling within a floodplain aquifer

This data package contains model input and output files for local and global sensitivity analysis (SA) of a reactive transport model simulating redox cycling within a floodplain aquifer. The reaction network is implemented in CrunchFlow and focuses on spatially and temporally heterogeneous Fe cycling, though it contains several other species and redox pathways (37 aqueous species and 7 minerals in total). The package contains data from 600 Monte Carlo simulations (for global SA) and 104 one-at-a-time simulations (for local SA). It includes all input files required to run the CrunchFlow model, as well as limited model output – .csv files containing time series of primary species concentrations at 21 grid cells within the domain. These time series files contain the following species: H+, CO32-, SO42-, Cl-, Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, Fe(II), Fe(III), HS-, CH3COO-, O2(aq), S(aq), and Br-.These data were used to demonstrate the application of a novel form of global SA, distance-based generalized sensitivity analysis (DGSA) to a reactive transport model. The 2D model simulates the export of reduced species from pockets of fine-grained, organic-rich sediments embedded in a coarse sand aquifer. Stochastic simulations jointly varied 17 key model input parameters across several orders of magnitude, including the spatial variability of each parameter. DGSA on the model results reveal that the amplitude and variability of exported Fe(II) are most sensitive to the interaction between sand permeability and individual reaction rates. By contrast, the propagation of reducing conditions downgradient from the fine-grained lenses depends most heavily on the rate of dissolved organic carbon and sulfate release from the fines.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving operational flexibility of integrated energy system with uncertain renewable generations considering thermal inertia of buildings

Insufficient flexibility in system operation caused by traditional "heat-set" operating modes of combined heat and power (CHP) units in winter heating periods is a key issue that limits renewable energy consumption. In order to reduce the curtailment of renewable energy resources through improving the operational flexibility, a novel optimal scheduling model based on chance-constrained programming (CCP), aiming at minimizing the lowest generation cost, is proposed for a small-scale integrated energy system (IES) with CHP units, thermal power units, renewable generations and representative auxiliary equipments. In this model, due to the uncertainties of renewable generations including wind turbines and photovoltaic units, the probabilistic spinning reserves are supplied in the form of chance-constrained; from the perspective of user experience, a heating load model is built with consideration of heat comfort and inertia in buildings. To solve the model, a solution approach based on sequence operation theory (SOT) is developed, where the original CCP-based scheduling model is tackled into a solvable mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation by converting a chance constraint into its deterministic equivalence class, and thereby is solved via the CPLEX solver. We report the simulation results on the modified IEEE 30-bus system demonstrate that the presented method manages to improve operational flexibility of the IES with uncertain renewable generations by comprehensively leveraging thermal inertia of buildings and different kinds of auxiliary equipments, which provides a fundamental way for promoting renewable energy consumption.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Chiral three-nucleon force and continuum for dripline nuclei and beyond

Three-nucleon force and continuum play important roles in reproducing the properties of atomic nuclei around driplines. Therefore it is valuable to build up a theoretical framework where both effects can be taken into account to solve the nuclear Schrödinger equation. To this end, in this letter, we have expressed the chiral three-nucleon force within the continuum Berggren representation, so that bound, resonant and continuum states can be treated on an equal footing in the complex-momentum space. To reduce the model dimension and computational cost, the three-nucleon force is truncated at the normal-ordered two-body level and limited in the sd-shell model space, with the residual three-body term being neglected. We choose neutron-rich oxygen isotopes as the test ground because they have been well studied experimentally, with the neutron dripline determined. The calculations have been carried out within the Gamow shell model. The quality of our results in reproducing the properties of oxygen isotopes around the neutron dripline shows the relevance of the interplay between three-nucleon force and the coupling to continuum states. We also analyze the role played by the chiral three-nucleon force, by dissecting the contributions of the 2π exchange, 1π exchange and contact terms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Defect-mediated diffusion of implanted Mg in GaN: Suppressing dopant redistribution by sequential thermal and microwave annealing

The diffusion behavior of Mg in Mg/N co-implanted GaN is investigated in response to a set of annealing conditions and methodologies, namely, 1000 °C/30 min thermal anneal, by high-temperature pulsed gyrotron microwave annealing at 1420 or 1500 °C, or by thermal and microwave annealing, sequentially. After 1000 °C annealing, the diffusion of Mg in GaN is found to be negligible, as measured by secondary ion mass spectrometry. Annealing by gyrotron microwave annealing alone induces the diffusion of Mg at a rate on the order of 10 −12 cm 2 /s. However, the use of a thermal anneal before microwave gyrotron annealing reduces this rate by an order of magnitude to 10 −13 cm 2 /s. We find that a model that considers Mg diffusion from an inhomogeneous medium that contains a defect-rich implanted region near-surface to a relatively pristine region below the implant range better explains the observed diffusion behavior than a conventional model that assumes a homogeneous medium. By analyzing the diffusion behavior using the Boltzmann–Matano method, we present a discussion of reduction in [V Ga ] by thermal annealing at 1000 °C, leading to a suppressed diffusion coefficient during subsequent high-temperature annealing relative to diffusion after 1420/1500 °C annealing alone. This effect holds potential for improvement in the precision of selectively doped regions for future applications based on the (Al)GaN material system. An improved field profile control in real devices can increase the breakdown and current-handling capabilities in power electronic applications.

Meyers, V.↗