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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Update on Small Modular Reactors Dynamics System Modeling Tool -- Molten Salt Cooled Architecture

The Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Dynamic System Modeling Tool project is in the third year of development. The project is designed to support collaborative modeling and study of various advanced SMR (non-light water cooled) concepts, including the use of multiple coupled reactors at a single site. The objective of the project is to provide a common simulation environment and baseline modeling resources to facilitate rapid development of dynamic advanced reactor SMR models, ensure consistency among research products within the Instrumentation, Controls, and Human-Machine Interface (ICHMI) technical area, and leverage cross-cutting capabilities while minimizing duplication of effort. The combined simulation environment and suite of models are identified as the Modular Dynamic SIMulation (MoDSIM) tool. The critical elements of this effort include (1) defining a standardized, common simulation environment that can be applied throughout the program, (2) developing a library of baseline component modules that can be assembled into full plant models using existing geometry and thermal-hydraulic data, (3) defining modeling conventions for interconnecting component models, and (4) establishing user interfaces and support tools to facilitate simulation development (i.e., configuration and parameterization), execution, and results display and capture.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2015

System-Cost-Optimized Smart EVSE for Residential Application: Final Technical Report including Manufacturing Plan

In the 2nd quarter of 2012, a program was formally initiated at Delta Products to develop smart-grid-enabled Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) product for residential use. The project was funded in part by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), under award DE-OE0000590. Delta products was the prime contractor to DOE during the three year duration of the project. In addition to Delta Products, several additional supplier-partners were engaged in this research and development (R&D) program, including Detroit Edison DTE, Mercedes Benz Research and Development North America, and kVA. This report summarizes the program and describes the key research outcomes of the program. A technical history of the project activities is provided, which describes the key steps taken in the research and the findings made at successive stages in the multi-stage work. The evolution of an EVSE prototype system is described in detail, culminating in prototypes shipped to Department of Energy Laboratories for final qualification. After the program history is reviewed, the key attributes of the resulting EVSE are described in terms of functionality, performance, and cost. The results clearly demonstrate the ability of this EVSE to meet or exceed DOE's targets for this program, including: construction of a working product-intent prototype of a smart-grid-enabled EVSE, with suitable connectivity to grid management and home-energy management systems, revenue-grade metering, and related technical functions; and cost reduction of 50% or more compared to typical market priced EVSEs at the time of DOE's funding opportunity announcement (FOA), which was released in mid 2011. In addition to meeting all the program goals, the program was completed within the original budget and timeline established at the time of the award. The summary program budget and timeline, comparing plan versus actual values, is provided for reference, along with several supporting explanatory notes. Technical information relating to the product design and test results are contained in the appendices to this report.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiple Beam Triode Driven RF Sources for Accelerator Applications Phase I Final Report

Calabazas Creek Research, Inc, (CCR), in collaboration with Microwave Power Products, Inc. (MPP), formerly Communications & Power Industries, LLC (CPI,) and JP Accelerator Works, Inc. (JPAW), embarked on a program to develop multiple beam triodes to produce RF power from 350 – 800 MHz with an average power exceeding 200 kW. The effort was motivated by the performance of a triode-based RF source which produces 25 kW of UHF power at 90% efficiency. The CCR effort focused on implementing this technology into a multiple beam device to increase the output power while retaining the low cost, compact size, and high efficiency. The program performed extensive simulations indicating that the goals could be achieved, and a prototype multiple beam triode was built, baked, and tested. Unfortunately, a grid to cathode short terminated the testing before the tube could generate RF power. Nevertheless, the effort demonstrated that a multiple beam triode could be designed, built, baked, and energized to high voltage. The multiple beam triode used oxide cathodes, which are only capable of pulsed operation. The multiple beam triode will be rebuilt using dispenser cathodes, which will allow high duty or continuous operation. The grids were also modified to be more robust to avoid previous issues. The MB triode will provide the beam power for RF generation. The RF is generated by surrounding the triode with input and output cavities to convert beam power to RF power. RF cavities to generate 200 kW CW at 350-450 MHz using the MB triode with dispenser cathodes was assembled during the program. The next Phase of this effort is to assemble the multiple beam triode using the subassemblies built in the Phase I program and test with the RF cavities. The Phase I program also initiated design of a higher frequency, higher power multiple beam triode. That design is forecast to produce approximately 500 kW CW from 350 - 500 MHz.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Contaminant Migration Modeling to Support the In Situ Decommissioning of Hardened Nuclear Facilities - 20215

The decommissioning of hardened nuclear facilities provides a unique challenge in balancing current worker dose with exposure to future receptors and media. In situ decommissioning (ISD) is a cost-effective and safe option for the closure of such facilities but requires a detailed understanding of the threat that radioactive and hazardous constituents remaining in the facilities pose to groundwater and surrounding surface water. The Savannah River Site (SRS) extensively employs contaminant migration models within the decommissioning process to develop site-specific removal, grouting, and monitoring strategies in support of safe and effective final end states of nuclear facilities. This work discusses the use of contaminant migration modeling in the ISD process at SRS, including specific examples from the closure of P-Reactor and R-Reactor, Building 235-F, F-Canyon and F/H Laboratory Complex. Migration models developed during the closure of P-Reactor and R-Reactor were divided into four source areas: the reactor vessel, the process area, the disassembly basin, and the purification wing. Each source area was assigned a specific inventory and migration pathway and was then subject to varying hypothetical removal, capping, and grouting schemes. Modeling indicated that groundwater Maximum Concentration Limits (MCLs) might be exceeded if no action was taken for eleven and ten constituents of concern (COCs) at P-Reactor and R-Reactor, respectively. These exceedances could occur in as few as 200 to 500 years. Alternatively, the migration modeling demonstrated that the selected ISD actions reduced contaminant mobility which allowed for significant radioactive decay and resulted in fewer predicted exceedances of groundwater MCLs (five COCs for P-Reactor; eight COCs for R-Reactor). In response to the modeling results for P-Reactor and R-Reactor, effectiveness monitoring programs were developed to target contaminants, specific to each reactor, that may migrate to groundwater. Contaminant migration modeling also revealed that roof collapse was a large factor in the release of COCs to the environment, giving rise to roof improvements, and an inspection and vegetation control program to ensure roof stability over time. Contaminant migration modeling is also aiding in the closure planning for hardened facilities in F Area. Building 235-F housed the Actinide Billet Line, which produced Np-237 billets for irradiation in SRS reactors, and the Plutonium Fuel Form (PuFF) facility that produced Pu-238 heat sources for the space program. As a result of these missions, areas within Building 235-F contain considerable residual amounts of both Pu-238 and Np-237. Contaminant migration modeling of Building 235-F was originally performed in 2012 to identify the feasibility of ISD and the amount of radioactive material removal required to prevent the exceedance of groundwater MCLs. The original model indicated that a 60% reduction in the PuFF facility Pu-238 inventory could keep groundwater concentrations below standards, while Np-237 did not pose a threat to groundwater. However, updates to the model with an emphasis on source impact pathways revealed that, due to the orientation of the source areas relative to groundwater flow, no amount of reasonable removal of Pu-238 would keep groundwater concentrations below MCLs and that Np-237 could be a large contributor to localized MCL exceedances. With this insight, the refined 2019 model is being used to assist in the development of grouting plans specific to each facility source area, where bentonite may be utilized to slow the migration of Pu-238 and its daughter products from the PuFF facility and a reducing grout may decrease Np-237 transport by ensuring the nuclide remains in the less mobile +IV oxidation state. The beginning phases of contaminant migration modeling are underway for F-Canyon and associated facilities using lessons learned from the Reactors and Building 235-F. A contaminant migration pathway, similar to the pathway used for the reactor vessels, is being developed for the hot and warm canyons. The F-Canyon inventories are being spatially refined to identify specific and localized source zones, comparable to Building 235-F, that may impact groundwater. Contaminant migration modeling provides vital input within the ISD process, from facility investigation to post closure effectiveness monitoring, making it a valuable tool in the development of safe and effective end states for hardened nuclear facilities at SRS. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

Utilizing Highly Scattered Light for Intelligence through Aerosols

This communication is the final report for the project Utilizing Highly Scattered Light for Intelligence through Aerosols funded by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program at Sandia National Laboratories and lasting six months in 2019. Aerosols like fog reduce visibility and cause down-time that for critical systems or operations are unacceptable. Information is lost due to the random scattering and absorption of light by tiny particles. Computational diffuse optical imaging methods show promise for interpreting the light transmitted through fog, enabling sensing and imaging to improve situational awareness at depths 10 times greater than current methods. Developing this capability first requires verification and validation of diffusion models of light propagation in fog. For this reason, analytical models were developed and compared to experimental data captured at the Sandia National Laboratory Fog Chamber facility. A methodology was developed to incorporate the propagation of scattered light through the imaging optics to a pixel array. The diffusion approximation to the radiative transfer equation was found to predict light propagation in fog under the appropriate conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Contribution to modeling of the reflooding of a severely damaged reactor core using PRELUDE experimental results

In case of accident at a nuclear power plant, water sources may not be available for a long period of time and the core heats up due to the residual power. The reflooding (injection of water into core) may be applied if the availability of safety injection is recovered during accident. If the injection becomes available only in the late phase of accident, water will enter a core configuration that will differ significantly from original rod-bundle geometry. Any attempt to inject water after significant core degradation can lead to further fragmentation of core material. The fragmentation of fuel rods may result in the formation of a 'debris bed'. The typical particle size in a debris bed might reach few millimeters (characteristic length-scale: 1 to 5 mm), i.e., a high permeability porous medium. The French 'Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire' is developing experimental programs (PEARL and PRELUDE) and simulation tools (ICARE-CATHARE and ASTEC) to study and optimize the severe accident management strategy and to assess the probabilities to stop the progress of in-vessel core degradation. It is shown that the quench front exhibits either a ID behaviour or a 2D one, depending on injection rate or bed characteristics. The PRELUDE experiment covers a rather large range of variation of parameters, for which the developed model appears to be quite predictive. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2014

NEET Micro-Pocket Fission Detector. Final Project report

A collaboration between the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), the Kansas State University (KSU), and the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission, Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives, (CEA), is funded by the Nuclear Energy Enabling Technologies (NEET) program to develop and test Micro-Pocket Fission Detectors (MPFDs), which are compact fission chambers capable of simultaneously measuring thermal neutron flux, fast neutron flux and temperature within a single package. When deployed, these sensors will significantly advance flux detection capabilities for irradiation tests in US Material Test Reactors (MTRs). Ultimately, evaluations may lead to a more compact, more accurate, and longer lifetime flux sensor for critical mock-ups, and high performance reactors, allowing several Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) programs to obtain higher accuracy/higher resolution data from irradiation tests of candidate new fuels and materials. Specifically, deployment of MPFDs will address several challenges faced in irradiations performed at MTRs: Current fission chamber technologies do not offer the ability to measure fast flux, thermal flux and temperature within a single compact probe; MPFDs offer this option. MPFD construction is very different than current fission chamber construction; the use of high temperature materials allow MPFDs to be specifically tailored to survive harsh conditions encountered in-core of high performance MTRs. The higher accuracy, high fidelity data available from the compact MPFD will significantly enhance efforts to validate new high-fidelity reactor physics codes and new multi-scale, multi-physics codes. MPFDs can be built with variable sensitivities to survive the lifetime of an experiment or fuel assembly in some MTRs, allowing for more efficient and cost effective power monitoring. The small size of the MPFDs allows multiple sensors to be deployed, offering the potential to accurately measure the flux and temperature profiles in the reactor. This report summarizes the status at the end of year two of this three year project. As documented in this report, all planned accomplishments for developing this unique new, compact, multipurpose sensor have been completed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2018

Using EPA's Risk Assessment Tools for Superfund When Addressing Removal Actions and Late-Phase Response to Terrorist Attacks - 18228

EPA's Office of Superfund Remediation and Technology Innovation (OSRTI) has three internet based calculators, or risk assessment models, for developing risk based Preliminary Remediation Goals (PRGs) for radioactively contaminated CERCLA sites. These PRG calculators are EPA's recommended methodology for developing risk-based concentrations for remedial actions for soil and water (PRG), inside buildings (BPRG), and outside hard surfaces (SPRG). EPA has three equivalent calculators for dose assessment, which are the Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) calculator for soil and water, inside buildings (BDCC), and outside hard surfaces (SDCC). The three PRG calculators also include default PRG tables provided for each of the calculators showing concentrations corresponding to 1 x 10-6 when the calculators are run using all of their default parameters. This presentation will provide information on how users may employ these tools beyond their original intended uses in the remedial program, to develop risk based cleanup levels during the late-phase portion of an actual response after a Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) or Improvised Nuclear Device (IND) terrorist attack or a major accident at a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), or a simulation during an exercise of an RDD/IND/NPP event, they may want to run the calculator using more site-specific data. This presentation will provide information on how users may employ these tools beyond their original intended uses in the remedial program, and focus on some of the more conservative default parameters that are likely candidates for replacement by site-specific information. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

Tri-Lab Co-Design Milestone: In-Depth Performance Portability Analysis of Improved Integrated Codes on Advanced Architecture.

This milestone is a tri-lab deliverable supporting ongoing Co-Design efforts impacting applications in the Integrated Codes (IC) program element Advanced Technology Development and Mitigation (ATDM) program element. In FY14, the trilabs looked at porting proxy application to technologies of interest for ATS procurements. In FY15, a milestone was completed evaluating proxy applications in multiple programming models and in FY16, a milestone was completed focusing on the migration of lessons learned back into production code development. This year, the co-design milestone focuses on extracting the knowledge gained and/or code revisions back into production applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

TU-F-CAMPUS-I-05: Semi-Automated, Open Source MRI Quality Assurance and Quality Control Program for Multi-Unit Institution

Purpose: Phantom measurements allow for the performance of magnetic resonance (MR) systems to be evaluated. Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) Report No. 100 Acceptance Testing and Quality Assurance Procedures for MR Imaging Facilities, American College of Radiology (ACR) MR Accreditation Program MR phantom testing, and ACR MRI quality control (QC) program documents help to outline specific tests for establishing system performance baselines as well as system stability over time. Analyzing and processing tests from multiple systems can be time-consuming for medical physicists. Besides determining whether tests are within predetermined limits or criteria, monitoring longitudinal trends can also help prevent costly downtime of systems during clinical operation. In this work, a semi-automated QC program was developed to analyze and record measurements in a database that allowed for easy access to historical data. Methods: Image analysis was performed on 27 different MR systems of 1.5T and 3.0T field strengths from GE and Siemens manufacturers. Recommended measurements involved the ACR MRI Accreditation Phantom, spherical homogenous phantoms, and a phantom with an uniform hole pattern. Measurements assessed geometric accuracy and linearity, position accuracy, image uniformity, signal, noise, ghosting, transmit gain, center frequency, and magnetic field drift. The program was designed with open source tools, employing Linux, Apache, MySQL database and Python programming language for the front and backend. Results: Processing time for each image is <2 seconds. Figures are produced to show regions of interests (ROIs) for analysis. Historical data can be reviewed to compare previous year data and to inspect for trends. Conclusion: A MRI quality assurance and QC program is necessary for maintaining high quality, ACR MRI Accredited MR programs. A reviewable database of phantom measurements assists medical physicists with processing and monitoring of large datasets. Longitudinal data can reveal trends that although are within passing criteria indicate underlying system issues.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Increasing the Security and Resilience of the Electric Power System

Through its Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program, NREL is investigating how the resilience of the electric power system can be measured, evaluated, and visualized - ultimately to provide utilities, government agencies, and communities with tools that can help them prepare for a variety of unpredictable scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Glass Design Using Machine Learning Property Models with Prediction Uncertainties: Nuclear Waste Glass Formulation

The United States Department of Energy is responsible for managing the legacy nuclear waste stored in underground tanks at the Hanford Site. The waste will be separately vitrified as low-activity waste and high-level waste fractions. Waste glass formulation algorithms have been traditionally developed using partial quadratic mixture property-composition models. Recently, machine learning (ML) techniques have been used to predict glass properties and discover new glass materials for nuclear waste vitrification, and these advancements can be utilized to improve waste glass composition design. In this proof-of-principle study, ML algorithms such as Gaussian process regression (GPR) were used to interpolate glass properties (e.g., viscosity, electrical conductivity, chemical durability). After selecting appropriate sets of GPR hyper-parameters for each property, an optimization program was developed to formulate glass compositions to maximize waste loading while simultaneously satisfying property within constraints. The results of the ML-based waste loadings and glass compositions were compared to those obtained using the traditional methods. Comparing to the previous glass design framework, the ML-based optimization methods offer improved glass designs and a streamlined approach to generation of optimally designed data and near real-time updates.

glass formulation, machine learning, constraints, ↗
DOE OSTI2012

NEET Micro-Pocket Fission Detector - FY 2012 Status Report

A research program has been initiated by the NEET program for developing and testing compact miniature fission chambers capable of simultaneously measuring thermal neutron flux, fast neutron flux and temperature within a single package. When implemented, these sensors will significantly advance flux detection capabilities for irradiation tests in US Materials Test Reactors (MTRs). Ultimately, evaluations may lead to a more compact, more accurate, and longer lifetime flux sensor for critical mock-ups, high performance reactors and commercial nuclear power plants. Deployment of Micro-Pocket Fission Detectors (MPFDs) in US DOE-NE program irradiation tests will address several challenges: Current fission chamber technologies do not offer the ability to measure fast flux, thermal flux and temperature within a single compact probe, MPFDs offer this option. MPFD construction is very different then current fission chamber construction; the use of high temperature materials allow MPFDs to be specifically tailored to survive harsh conditions in typical high performance MTR irradiation tests.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-Time Hardware-in-the-Loop Distributed Energy Resources System Testbed using IEEE 2030.5 Standard

IEEE 2030.5 standard is drawing special attention among communication protocols for smart inverters and distributed energy resources (DER). Moreover, California Rule 21 mandates new DER must be ready to communicate to a host utility using the IEEE 2030.5 standard. Therefore, development of an effective real-time simulation method for managing DER using IEEE 2030.5 network is crucial. This paper presents a real-time hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) DER system testbed using the IEEE 2030.5 standard. The proposed real-time co-simulation testbed consists of a DER physical system simulation using OP AL-RT real-time simulator and a cyber system simulation including DER gateways and a DER management system (DERMS) cloud server. Custom-built client and server programs are developed to meet the compliant with IEEE 2030.5-2018 standard and implemented in the DER gateways and a DERMS server, respectively. Furthermore, the feasibility of the proposed testbed for DER systems is validated by experiments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

History of Ultrasonic Inspection of High-Level Waste Tanks at SRS - 20220

The Liquid Waste Disposition Projects (LWDP) Structural Authority and Inspection Engineering Support Group has teamed with the Materials Science and Technology Non-destructive Evaluation Group of Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) to implement a comprehensive In-Service Inspection (ISI) program for the High-Level Waste (HLW) tanks in the sites tank farms. The purpose of this program is to demonstrate the structural and leak integrity of the tanks to maintain the function of waste containment throughout the desired service life. Four types of waste tanks were constructed at Savannah River Site (SRS) from 1951 thru 1981 to store radioactive nuclear waste from the separations process. The Type I, II and III are carbon steel cylindrical tanks with varying degrees of access to the side walls and very limited access to the tank bottom. The tanks contain 750,000 to 1.3 million gallons of waste and are buried or backfilled with soil. The tanks are 75'-85' in diameter and 24'-33' from tank bottom to the tank roof. Inspection of the HLW tanks is made difficult by radiation, contamination, and small access openings. Through the years these challenges have been overcome by progressive improvements to programs and equipment resulting in the sophisticated wall crawler Ultrasonic Testing (UT) technology of today. A formal inspection program was developed and put in service in 1972. UT thickness measurements were first made in 1967 and 1969 of selected waste tanks using an analog-type instrument to measure the thickness of the carbon steel walls. Routine inspections for thinning were performed from 1972-1985 and then discontinued because no thinning had been observed and this technique could not detect pitting or cracking. UT inspections resumed in 1994 using a sophisticated robotic wall crawler with UT technology capable of detecting thinning, cracking and pitting. The current program focuses on the newer Type III tanks that are used primarily for storage. The program was upgraded in 2003 to include selected regions of the tank wall, secondary wall and annulus floor on a 7 to 10-year frequency. The facility is currently in its third cycle of tank inspections. Thus far, there have been no reportable indications of service induced degradation. This result provides assurance that the chemistry control program has been effective at mitigating corrosion and that the tanks remain structurally sound even after more than 40 years of service. This paper will present the UT technology first used at SRS and the evolution to the current systems and their capabilities. Additionally, plans for equipment upgrades that will improve the extent of inspection will be discussed. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2012

High-bandwidth Modulation of H2/Syngas Fuel to Control Combustion Dynamics in Micro-Mixing Lean Premix Systems

The goal of this program was to develop and demonstrate fuel injection technologies that will facilitate the development of cost-effective turbine engines for Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) power plants, while improving efficiency and reducing emissions. The program involved developing a next-generation multi-point injector with enhanced stability performance for lean premix turbine systems that burn hydrogen (H2) or synthesis gas (syngas) fuels. A previously developed injector that demonstrated superior emissions performance was improved to enhance static flame stability through zone staging and pilot sheltering. In addition, piezo valve technology was implemented to investigate the potential for enhanced dynamic stability through high-bandwidth modulation of the fuel supply. Prototype injector and valve hardware were tested in an atmospheric combustion facility. The program was successful in meeting its objectives. Specifically, the following was accomplished: Demonstrated improvement of lean operability of the Parker multi-point injector through staging of fuel flow and primary zone sheltering; Developed a piezo valve capable of proportional and high-bandwidth modulation of gaseous fuel flow at frequencies as high as 500 Hz; The valve was shown to be capable of effecting changes to flame dynamics, heat release, and acoustic signature of an atmospheric combustor. The latter achievement indicates the viability of the Parker piezo valve technology for use in future adaptively controlled systems for the mitigation of combustion instabilities, particularly for attenuating combustion dynamics under ultra-lean conditions.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2018

Optimizing Service Restoration in Distribution Systems With Uncertain Repair Time and Demand

This paper proposes a novel method to co-optimize the distribution system operation and repair crew routing for outage restoration after extreme weather events. A two-stage stochastic mixed integer linear program is developed. The first stage is to dispatch the repair crews to the damaged components. The second stage is distribution system restoration using distributed generators, and reconfiguration. We consider demand uncertainty in terms of a truncated normal forecast error distribution, and model the uncertainty of the repair time using a lognormal distribution. A new decomposition approach, combined with the progressive hedging algorithm, is developed for solving large-scale outage management problems in an effective and timely manner. Furthermore, the proposed method is validated on modified IEEE 34- and 8500-bus distribution test systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2016

Analysis of Fuel Cell Markets in Japan and the US: Experience Curve Development and Cost Reduction Disaggregation

Fuel cells are both a longstanding and emerging technology for stationary and transportation applications, and their future use will likely be critical for the deep decarbonization of global energy systems. As we look into future applications, a key challenge for policy-makers and technology market forecasters who seek to track and/or accelerate their market adoption is the ability to forecast market costs of the fuel cells as technology innovations are incorporated into market products. Specifically, there is a need to estimate technology learning rates, which are rates of cost reduction versus production volume. Unfortunately, no literature exists for forecasting future learning rates for fuel cells. In this paper, we look retrospectively to estimate learning rates for two fuel cell deployment programs: (1) the micro-combined heat and power (CHP) program in Japan, and (2) the Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) in California. These two examples have a relatively broad set of historical market data and thus provide an informative and international comparison of distinct fuel cell technologies and government deployment programs. We develop a generalized procedure for disaggregating experience-curve cost-reductions in order to disaggregate the Japanese fuel cell micro-CHP market into its constituent components, and we derive and present a range of learning rates that may explain observed market trends. Finally, we explore the differences in the technology development ecosystem and market conditions that may have contributed to the observed differences in cost reduction and draw policy observations for the market adoption of future fuel cell technologies. The scientific and policy contributions of this paper are the first comparative experience curve analysis of past fuel cell technologies in two distinct markets, and the first quantitative comparison of a detailed cost model of fuel cell systems with actual market data. The resulting approach is applicable to analyzing other fuel cell markets and other energy-related technologies, and highlights the data needed for cost modeling and quantitative assessment of key cost reduction components.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗