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Machine learning and atomic layer deposition: Predicting saturation times from reactor growth profiles using artificial neural networks

In this work, we explore the application of deep neural networks to the optimization of atomic layer deposition (ALD) processes. In particular, we focus on a one-shot optimization problem, where we try to predict the optimal dose time that leads to saturation everywhere in the reactor based on thickness values measured at different points of an ALD reactor after a single trial growth. In order to tackle this problem, we introduce a dataset designed to train neural networks to predict saturation times based on these inputs for a cross-flow ALD reactor. Here, we then explore the predictive ability of artificial neural networks of different depths and sizes using a separate testing dataset to evaluate their accuracies. The results obtained show that networks trained using stochastic gradient descent methods can accurately predict saturation times without requiring any additional information on the surface kinetics. This provides a viable approach to minimize the number of experiments required to optimize new ALD processes in a known reactor, and it highlights the way machine learning can be leveraged for thin film growth and manufacturing. While the datasets and training procedure depend on the reactor geometry, the trained neural networks provide a general surrogate model connecting thickness values and trial dose times with optimal saturation times that can be reused for different ALD processes within the same reactor.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

SetBERT: the deep learning platform for contextualized embeddings and explainable predictions from high-throughput sequencing

MOTIVATION: High-throughput sequencing (HTS) is a modern sequencing technology used to profile microbiomes by sequencing thousands of short genomic fragments from the microorganisms within a given sample. This technology presents a unique opportunity for artificial intelligence to comprehend the underlying functional relationships of microbial communities. However, due to the unstructured nature of HTS data, nearly all computational models are limited to processing DNA sequences individually. This limitation causes them to miss out on key interactions between microorganisms, significantly hindering our understanding of how these interactions influence the microbial communities as a whole. Furthermore, most computational methods rely on post-processing of samples which could inadvertently introduce unintentional protocol-specific bias. RESULTS: Addressing these concerns, we present SetBERT, a robust pre-training methodology for creating generalized deep learning models for processing HTS data to produce contextualized embeddings and be fine-tuned for downstream tasks with explainable predictions. By leveraging sequence interactions, we show that SetBERT significantly outperforms other models in taxonomic classification with genus-level classification accuracy of 95%. Furthermore, we demonstrate that SetBERT is able to accurately explain its predictions autonomously by confirming the biological-relevance of taxa identified by the model. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: All source code is available at https://github.com/DLii-Research/setbert. SetBERT may be used through the q2-deepdna QIIME 2 plugin whose source code is available at https://github.com/DLii-Research/q2-deepdna.

Ludwig, David W↗

Path Integral Monte Carlo Simulations of Iron Plasmas (Final Technical Report)

This documents is the final technical report for our grant entitled "Path Integral Monte Carlo Simulations of Iron Plasmas" that focused on developing path integral Monte Carlo (PIMC) computer simulations. This techniques will be developed to study plasmas composed of heavier elements including iron and other third row elements. Equations of state (EOS) and transport properties will be derived in the regime of warm dense matter (WDM) and dense plasmas where existing first-principles methods cannot be applied. While standard density functional theory (DFT) has been used to accurately predict the structure of many solids and liquids up to temperatures on the order of 100,000 K, this method is not applicable at much higher temperature because the number of partially occupied electronic orbitals reaches intractably large numbers or the use of finite-temperature free energy functionals in orbital-free DFT introduces an uncontrolled approximation. Here we focus on PIMC methods that become more and more efficient with increasing temperatures and still include all electronic correlation effects. In this approach, electronic excitations increase the efficiency rather than reduce it. While it had commonly been assumed this method could only be applied to elements without core electrons, we showed that PIMC with free-particle nodes works well for first-row elements (PRL 108 (2012) 115502). Most recently, we extended the applicability range of all-electron PIMC to second-row elements by adopting localized nodal surfaces (PRL 115 (2015) 176403). To simulate third-row elements efficiently under WDM conditions, we propose a new method to remove core electrons by introducing pseudo-nodes. We explain our approach step by step and present preliminary results. We focus our method development on getting PIMC simulations of iron to work because of its fundamental importance for WDM and astrophysics. Then we move on to krypton and copper-doped beryllium, a ICF ablator material. We plan to continue working on key second-row material such as Na, Mg, MgO, Al, silica, and silicon-doped plastic ablators. Our collaborators at LLNL, will use our PIMC EOS data both as comparisons to existing semi-empirical, EOS-generating schemes, and as input for continuum radiation hydrodynamics simulations. We will establish an efficient pipeline from PIMC to macroscopic continuum studies of materials response. An emphasis will be placed on benchmarking such methods for plasmas of heavy elements at the very high temperatures (~100 eV) and low densities that are generated when Hohlraum radiation heats the ablator material in indirect drive laser experiments. Results from changes to the EOS will be of immeasurable importance to the designers at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) and at other facilities. Starting with our EOS of Cu-doped Be, our second collaborator at LLE, will perform real-time simulations of laser fusion experiments at the Omega laser and at the NIF to determine how sensitive the compression path depends on the ablator EOS. Since our collaborator also has experience in performing orbital-free DFT calculations, we propose to compare predictions from this method with PIMC results. In joint publications, we plan to analyze the accuracy of different free-energy functionals in order to understand why existing orbital-free DFT calculations do not predict compression peaks along the shock Hugoniot curve that we see with PIMC. The peaks are caused by the ionization of various electron shells. Their accurate characterization is important to compare with experimental results. We will break new ground by developing PIMC techniques that can simulate iron and all other third row elements in the plasma and WDM regimes. We introduce the concept of pseudo-nodes for the efficient treatment of the core-electrons. The EOS and transport properties will be derived and published online in the form of a new WDM database. Our PIMC EOS calculations will benchmark and possibly replace semi-analytical EOS tables like QEOS or SESAME, which will impact the hydrocode simulation community and will affect the design of NIF targets. Our PIMC results will help to improve the accuracy of orbital-free DFT simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Computationally Accelerated Discovery and Experimental Demonstration of High-Performance Materials for Advanced Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen Production

This project achieved its overarching goal of accelerating the discovery and validation of solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) materials through a tightly integrated approach that combined high-throughput computational screening, advanced machine learning (ML), and experimental testing. Guided by the objectives outlined in the Statement of Project Objectives (SOPO), our work fulfilled all major milestones across four technical tasks and delivered scientific breakthroughs and practical tools that significantly exceeded the original scope of the project. We began by addressing the challenge of predicting material phase stability through machine learning. A novel Python module was developed to generate thousands of meaningful features from composition, structure, and electronic properties, enabling rapid and reproducible ML model development. Using these tools, we trained a model to predict temperature-dependent Gibbs energies (G(T)) for inorganic crystalline materials with near-chemical accuracy—roughly 40 meV/atom—marking the first such descriptor of its kind. We also introduced a new machine-learned tolerance factor, τ, that accurately predicted perovskite formability with over 90% success, outperforming traditional heuristic models, such as the Goldschmidt tolerance factor. These capabilities allowed for rapid and accurate predictions of phase stability across a vast oxide composition space, setting the stage for high-throughput thermodynamic screening. Building on this foundation, we conducted an extensive computational screening of candidate STCH oxide materials. Over 1.1 million perovskite compositions were evaluated using the τ descriptor, leading to the identification of more than 27,000 predicted stable structures. Using density functional theory (DFT), we refined over 68,000 multinary perovskite structures and computed oxygen vacancy formation energies for over 1,300 ternary and double perovskites. These calculations enabled us to isolate compounds with redox behavior consistent with STCH requirements and resulted in a public dataset now hosted on the Materials Project. Recognizing that thermodynamic screening alone is insufficient, we addressed kinetic limitations by developing a suite of tools to estimate transition state (TS) energies for key redox reactions. We implemented a novel bounding approach that provides lower and upper estimates of TS energies with dramatically reduced computational cost, requiring less than 10% of the CPU time of a full nudged elastic band (NEB) calculation while maintaining high accuracy. This enabled rapid evaluation of over 200 reaction pathways across 90 materials. To further accelerate screening, we developed a SISSO-based ML model to predict diffusion barriers with a 96.7% success rate in classifying fast vs. slow materials, supporting a robust, data-driven framework for assessing redox kinetics. Experimental validation was critical to confirming the predictive power of our models. We synthesized and tested a wide array of candidate materials, including Mn-doped hercynite and several Gd- and La-based perovskites. Notably, Sr 0.4 Gd 0.6 Mn 0.6 Al 0.4 O 3 (SGMA) and Gd 0.5 La 0.5 Co 0.5 Fe 0.5 O 3 (GLCF) emerged as leading STCH materials, exhibiting robust redox cycling and high hydrogen yields exceeding 150 µmol H 2 /g per cycle. These materials also retained over 50% of their hydrogen productivity under high-conversion conditions (H 2 O:H 2 = 1333:1), demonstrating strong thermodynamic favorability and promising performance under industrially relevant scenarios. Additional candidates, such as La 2 MnNiO 6 (L2MN), were found to produce even higher yields than ceria under standard STCH conditions. Our collaborators at Sandia National Laboratories confirmed these findings using high-temperature X-ray diffraction and thermogravimetric analysis, observing stable phase evolution and reversible redox activity. In several respects, the project went beyond the goals initially outlined in the SOPO. We published 17 peer-reviewed articles, including a large dataset of over 66,000 theoretical perovskites and a new structure prediction method (SPuDS-DFT) that accurately identifies ground-state structures at a fraction of the cost of traditional DFT. We demonstrated that our machine-learned G(T) model offers accuracy rivaling quasiharmonic calculations while being orders of magnitude faster. In partnership with the Materials Project, we made our datasets openly available, providing a powerful new resource for the broader materials science community. The combined computational and experimental advances of this project represent a significant advance in STCH materials discovery. By creating a robust, generalizable, and open workflow for thermodynamic and kinetic screening, and validating key findings through synthesis and reactor testing, we have provided a practical and scalable pathway for the rapid identification of new redox-active materials. The tools, data, and materials developed under this project are already supporting ongoing research and have laid the groundwork for the next generation of solar fuel technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Sensitivity Analysis and Effective Parametrization of PEM Fuel Cell Models

The cost of proton-exchange-membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) remains a major hurdle in large-scale commercialization of this technology. To improve their performance and reduce cost, novel materials and electrode designs are continuously envisioned, e.g., non-PGM catalyst layers, ultra-thin Pt/Pt-Ni based catalyst layers, structured ionomer arrays or NSTF catalyst layers.1 Understanding the impact of these improvement strategies can be extremely time and cost intensive due to complex physical phenomena and large design space. We have previously developed a PEMFC modeling framework2 which has been a time and cost effective tool for understanding and optimizing the complex multi-physics phenomena within PEMFCs; however, several of the cell parameters used in the modeling have large spread in measured data.3 Furthermore, several transport parameters such as water adsorption kinetics have not been accurately measured and the approximations are spread over several orders of magnitude. These uncertainties cause problems in ascertaining accuracy of the modeling approach and they reduce the predictive power of the numerical models. The aim of this work is to identify the sensitivity of PEFC numerical model outputs to various input parameters. The previously in-house developed MEA modeling framework2 is used for PEMFC modeling. The sensitivity of the model outputs with respect to inputs parameters is obtained by analyzing the condition numbers for different output-input pairs at varying operating conditions. An example of the sensitivity analysis is shown in Figure 1. The condition numbers are obtained for the entire possible range of input parameters at varying operating conditions to identify the most crucial parameters of the PEMFC model. Based on our preliminary analysis, parameters related to kinetics (exchange current density and ECSA) and heat/water management in electrodes and ionomer (ionomer fraction, thermal conductivity) are most crucial. One of the major goals of this work is to identify the most crucial set of parameters towards which the model shows maximum sensitivity. This will guide future experimentalists to measure these properties with higher accuracy. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis will also enable us to optimize the PEMFC performance by selectively targeting the most sensitive parameters and thereby making the largest impact. Acknowledgements The work is funded under the Fuel Cell Performance and Durability Consortium (FC-PAD), by the Fuel Cell Technologies Office (FCTO), Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), of the U.S. Department of Energy under contract number DE-AC02-05CH11231. The authors would like to thank Nathan Craig at Robert Bosch LLC for his valuable input in designing the sensitivity analysis. The authors would also like to thank Giovanna Bucci and Matthias Hanauer at Robert Bosch for their valuable inputs and discussion. References P. K. Sinha, W. Gu, A. Kongkanand and E. Thompson, J. Electrochem. Soc., 158, B831 (2011). L. M. Pant, M. R. Gerhardt, N. Macauley, R. Mukundan, R. L. Borup and A. Z. Weber, Electrochim. Acta, 326, 134963 (2019). R. Vetter and J. O. Schumacher, ArXiv181110091 Phys. (2018). Figure 1

Pant, Lalit↗

Predicting Elastic Constants of Refractory Complex Concentrated Alloys Using Machine Learning Approach

Refractory complex concentrated alloys (RCCAs) have drawn increasing attention recently owing to their balanced mechanical properties, including excellent creep resistance, ductility, and oxidation resistance. The mechanical and thermal properties of RCCAs are directly linked with the elastic constants. However, it is time consuming and expensive to obtain the elastic constants of RCCAs with conventional trial-and-error experiments. The elastic constants of RCCAs are predicted using a combination of density functional theory simulation data and machine learning (ML) algorithms in this study. The elastic constants of several RCCAs are predicted using the random forest regressor, gradient boosting regressor (GBR), and XGBoost regression models. Based on performance metrics R-squared, mean average error and root mean square error, the GBR model was found to be most promising in predicting the elastic constant of RCCAs among the three ML models. Additionally, GBR model accuracy was verified using the other four RHEAs dataset which was never seen by the GBR model, and reasonable agreements between ML prediction and available results were found. The present findings show that the GBR model can be used to predict the elastic constant of new RHEAs more accurately without performing any expensive computational and experimental work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Data-driven closure modeling for hypersonic turbulent flows

The Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations remain a workhorse technology for simulating compressible fluid flows of practical interest. Due to model-form errors, however, RANS models can yield erroneous predictions that preclude their use on mission-critical problems. This report summarizes work performed from FY22-FY24 focused on improving RANS models for hypersonic flows using data-driven modeling and scientific machine learning. In this work we: 1. Investigate the current capabilities of RANS models in Sandia’s parallel aerodynamics and re-entry code (SPARC) for hypersonic flows with a focus on shock boundary layer interactions (SBLIs), 2. Assess several established corrections that exist in the literature aimed at improving predictions for SBLIs, 3. Develop improved models for the Reynolds stress tensor using tensor-basis neural networks, 4. Develop a neural-network-based variable turbulent Prandtl number model to reduce errors in wall heating in SBLIs. 5. Begin future investigations including employing the LIFE framework to improve wall heating predictions in SBLIs as well as the ensemble Kalman filter. We find that current RANS models in SPARC are deficient for complex SBLI flows. In particular, no current model jointly predicts wall heat flux, wall shear stress, and wall pressure with reasonable accuracy. Existing corrections help, but do not alleviate this issue altogether. The development of improved models for the Reynolds stress tensor via tensor-basis neural networks results in more predictive RANS models across a suite of low-speed and high-speed cases. For hypersonic boundary layers, the inclusion of the wall-normal Reynolds stress via TBNNs has an appreciable impact on the wall-normal momentum balance and wall quantities. However, we find that improvements to the Reynolds stress tensor do not address the over-prediction in wall heat flux in SBLIs. We find that a neural-network-based variable turbulent Prandtl number model systematically and substantially improves wall heating predictions for a range of SBLI cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Global Evaluation of Process Conditions and Wave Modes in a Rotating Detonation Engine

Rotating Detonation Engines (RDEs) show significant promise for enhancing the efficiency of gas turbine engines while maintaining low 𝑁𝑂𝑥 emissions. This work investigates the predictability of wave modes in a water-cooled RDE under varying operational conditions. Experimental data comprising over 6,700 samples was collected, including parameters such as flow rates, temperatures, pressures, and equivalence ratios. A machine learning approach using the XGBoost library was used to build a multi-class classifier, predicting wave modes based on these inputs. The model achieved a high accuracy of 97%, demonstrating that wave modes are not random but deterministic based on the process conditions. SHAP analysis was used to identify the most influential parameters affecting wave mode prediction. The results show that for the water-cooled NETL RDE, wave mode is determinant and predictable based on the process parameters.

Weber, Justin [NETL] (ORCID:0000000218487035)↗

Optimization of the number and locations of the calibration stations needed to monitor soil moisture using distributed temperature sensing systems: A proof-of-concept study

The single-probe heat-pulse (SPHP) technique combined with the Fiber-optic Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) technology can offer novel high-resolution measurements of soil moisture (θ) over spatial scales ranging from several centimeters to several kilometers. However, the key limitation of this method is in obtaining the calibration relationship between θ and soil thermal conductivity (λ) across a specific field. In a previous study, a new methodology using a Gaussian processes model was presented to account for the spatial variability in the λ-θ relationship. The model aggregated θ measurements from soil moisture sensors scattered over the SPHP transect with the corresponding DTS λ measurements at their locations. In this study, a novel methodology is tested to optimize the number and locations of soil moisture sensors required to account for the spatial variability of the λ - θ relationship to achieve higher accuracy from the SPHP technique. The proposed methodology utilizes hierarchical clustering to analyze the information contained in the spatial structure of the SPHP measurements as the soil dries from a nearly-saturated condition. The proposed methodology was tested using data from a field in Oklahoma. Monte-Carlo simulation was performed to validate the performance of the proposed methodology. The predictions obtained from the proposed methodology resulted in θ measurements accuracy comparable to those obtained from the 10% best Monte-Carlo iterations of randomly assigned soil moisture locations. Further, this study demonstrates that the proposed methodology is more efficient than the traditional practice of randomly spreading calibration soil moisture sensors along the SPHP transect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of Flexibility in Molecular Simulations of Carbon Dioxide Adsorption and Diffusion in a Cuprous Triazolate Framework

Using fixed atom force fields to model gas adsorption in flexible metal organic frameworks (MOFs) is known to pose difficulties in accurately reproducing and predicting experimental results. This paper studies the difference in accuracy between flexible and fixed atom force fields in reproducing CO 2 adsorption measurements in MAF-2 ([Cu(etz)]∞ (MAF-2, Hetz) 3,5-diethyl-1,2,4-triazole), an NbO-type triazolate scaffold with a bcu cavity system and attached ethyl groups. The flexible force field used to run the hybrid molecular dynamics and grand canonical Monte Carlo calculations were generated using the QuickFF software incorporating van der Waals parameters from the Universal Force Field (UFF) and density derived electrostatic and chemical (DDEC) charges. The fixed atom force field used was composed of UFF van der Waals parameters together with DDEC charges. The calculations were run at 298 K and at pressures of 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.8, and 1 bar. It was observed that for this MOF the rigid force field overpredicted gas adsorption, whereas the flexible force field values closely matched experimental data. In the flexible structure, the freely moving ethyl groups of MAF-2 hindered adsorption, reducing the interaction energy between CO 2 and the N atoms of the triazolate framework as well as reducing the size of the largest cavity diameter. Here, the combination of these factors led to improved prediction of adsorption values with the flexible forcefield as compared to the rigid forcefield, demonstrating the need for modeling MOFs in a way more indicative of their behavior.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Correcting for filter-based aerosol light absorption biases at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains site using photoacoustic measurements and machine learning

Abstract. Measurement of light absorption of solar radiation by aerosols is vital for assessing direct aerosol radiative forcing, which affects local and global climate. Low-cost and easy-to-operate filter-based instruments, such as the Particle Soot Absorption Photometer (PSAP), that collect aerosols on a filter and measure light attenuation through the filter are widely used to infer aerosol light absorption. However, filter-based absorption measurements are subject to artifacts that are difficult to quantify. These artifacts are associated with the presence of the filter medium and the complex interactions between the filter fibers and accumulated aerosols. Various correction algorithms have been introduced to correct for the filter-based absorption coefficient measurements toward predicting the particle-phase absorption coefficient (Babs). However, the inability of these algorithms to incorporate into their formulations the complex matrix of influencing parameters such as particle asymmetry parameter, particle size, and particle penetration depth results in prediction of particle-phase absorption coefficients with relatively low accuracy. The analytical forms of corrections also suffer from a lack of universal applicability: different corrections are required for rural and urban sites across the world. In this study, we analyzed and compared 3 months of high-time-resolution ambient aerosol absorption data collected synchronously using a three-wavelength photoacoustic absorption spectrometer (PASS) and PSAP. Both instruments were operated on the same sampling inlet at the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains (SGP) user facility in Oklahoma. We implemented the two most commonly used analytical correction algorithms, namely, Virkkula (2010) and the average of Virkkula (2010) and Ogren (2010)–Bond et al. (1999) as well as a random forest regression (RFR) machine learning algorithm to predict Babs values from the PSAP's filter-based measurements. The predicted Babs was compared against the reference Babs measured by the PASS. The RFR algorithm performed the best by yielding the lowest root mean square error of prediction. The algorithm was trained using input datasets from the PSAP (transmission and uncorrected absorption coefficient), a co-located nephelometer (scattering coefficients), and the Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor (mass concentration of non-refractory aerosol particles). A revised form of the Virkkula (2010) algorithm suitable for the SGP site has been proposed; however, its performance yields approximately 2-fold errors when compared to the RFR algorithm. To generalize the accuracy and applicability of our proposed RFR algorithm, we trained and tested it on a dataset of laboratory measurements of combustion aerosols. Input variables to the algorithm included the aerosol number size distribution from the Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer, absorption coefficients from the filter-based Tricolor Absorption Photometer, and scattering coefficients from a multiwavelength nephelometer. The RFR algorithm predicted Babs values within 5 % of the reference Babs measured by the multiwavelength PASS during the laboratory experiments. Thus, we show that machine learning approaches offer a promising path to correct for biases in long-term filter-based absorption datasets and accurately quantify their variability and trends needed for robust radiative forcing determination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing decadal variability of subseasonal forecasts of opportunity using explainable AI

Abstract Identifying predictable states of the climate system allows for enhanced prediction skill on the generally low-skill subseasonal timescale via forecasts with higher confidence and accuracy, known as forecasts of opportunity. This study takes a neural network approach to explore decadal variability of subseasonal predictability, particularly during forecasts of opportunity. Specifically, this work quantifies subseasonal prediction skill provided by the tropics within the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble and assesses how this skill evolves on decadal timescales. Utilizing the networks’ confidence and explainable artificial intelligence, physically meaningful sources of predictability associated with periods of enhanced skill are identified. Using these networks, we find that tropically-driven subseasonal predictability varies on decadal timescales during forecasts of opportunity. Further, we investigate the drivers of the low frequency modulation of the tropical-extratropical teleconnection and discuss the implications. Analysis is extended to ECMWF Reanalysis v5 data, revealing that the relationships learned within the CESM2-Large Ensemble holds in modern reanalysis data. These results indicate that the neural networks are capable of identifying predictable decadal states of the climate system within CESM2 that are useful for making confident, accurate subseasonal precipitation predictions in the real world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Philympics 2021: Prophage Predictions Perplex Programs

Most bacterial genomes contain integrated bacteriophages—prophages—in various states of decay. Many are active and able to excise from the genome and replicate, while others are cryptic prophages, remnants of their former selves. Over the last two decades, many computational tools have been developed to identify the prophage components of bacterial genomes, and it is a particularly active area for the application of machine learning approaches. However, progress is hindered and comparisons thwarted because there are no manually curated bacterial genomes that can be used to test new prophage prediction algorithms. Here, we present a library of gold-standard bacterial genome annotations that include manually curated prophage annotations, and a computational framework to compare the predictions from different algorithms. We use this suite to compare all extant stand-alone prophage prediction algorithms to identify their strengths and weaknesses. We provide a FAIR dataset for prophage identification, and demonstrate the accuracy, precision, recall, and f 1 score from the analysis of seven different algorithms for the prediction of prophages. We discuss caveats and concerns in this analysis and how those concerns may be mitigated.

Roach, Michael J.↗

Development of an Open-source Alloy Selection and Lifetime Assessment Tool for Structural Components in CSP

Lack of sufficient data on high temperature mechanical and corrosion behavior of structural materials is a huge barrier in the technological maturity of current and future Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies. Rapid development and selection of materials cannot be achieved by expensive and time-consuming acquisition of experimental data. The goal of the proposed work is development of an open-source alloy selection and lifetime prediction tool that will integrate validated physics-based models to describe influence of temperature, alloy composition, environment and component geometry (thickness) on mechanical and corrosion behavior of Ni and Fe-based alloys employed in molten salts/sCO 2 heat exchangers. This one-year project leveraged the extensive dataset on the creep\corrosion behavior of candidate materials generated at ORNL through past projects and input from current collaborations with industrial partners. Based on previous experience and the feedback provided by industry (Brayton Energy and Echogen), three candidate materials of interest, Ni-based alloys 740H, 282 and 625 and application-specific operating conditions (max. temperature of 730 °C and stress of 150 MPa) were identified for the heat exchanger. An extensive corrosion and creep dataset was assimilated for the relevant operating conditions and was supported by detailed characterization of about 100 metallographic cross-sections. The corrosion dataset consisted of scanning electron microscopy images (secondary electron and backscatter electron), measured concentration profiles of alloying elements using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), widths of denuded zones (dissolution of strengthening phases) and depths of attack in molten KCl-MgCl 2 mixtures using image analyses. The creep dataset comprised of creep rupture data and creep strain curves (for 740H and 282). Coupled thermodynamic-kinetic microstructure-based models were employed to predict the stress-corrosion induced compositional and phase evolutions in the alloy during operation under the identified operating conditions. Reduced order models were developed from advanced physics-based models and were integrated in a user-friendly alloy selection tool. The corrosion model was able to predict the time to a critical Cr concentration at the oxide/alloy interface (chemical lifetime) within ±10% (1 standard deviation) of typical statistical variation in corrosion tests and EDS measurement errors (±0.5 wt%). The initial scope of the project was limited to predict creep rupture times (Larson-Miller parameter). Based on the input provided by industry, the mechanical lifetime of the heat exchanger is governed by accumulated creep strains (2%) rather than creep rupture. To be able to predict the times to specific creep strains, a more extensive creep model development was undertaken largely beyond the initial scope of the project. The continuum damage mechanics creep model was able to predict times to 2% creep strain, t 2% with an accuracy of ±500h. Ultimately, a screening protocol for SiC was generated to demonstrate the pathway for integration of one of the currently immature materials from a commercial adoption standpoint in the current material evaluation tool. The modeling tool developed here is accessible to the science community and stakeholders and lays the foundation for methods that will enable a rapid evaluation of optimum materials for CSP applications and reliable prediction of material degradation thereby considerably reducing operational costs, improving reliability and increasing overhaul intervals. However, the complete potential of such a tool to include a wider range of materials and test conditions can only be realized with a more concentrated combined experimental-characterization-computation effort.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Explainable Artificial Intelligence in Endocrinological Medical Research

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been a part of the medical community for decades in the form of Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) to aide physicians in diagnosis and categorization of patients (1). Recent years have seen a shift from expert-derived models to the integration of machine learning (ML) algorithms to drive the output of these AI systems due to the ability of ML models to more accurately make predictions by exploiting higher dimensional and often complex data. In many cases ML models gain their advantage in accuracy by capture complex and often non-linear relationships between features being used to make the prediction. However, the hype and excitement around these methods are tempered by the clinical utility of often black-box solutions driven by skepticism of results that are difficult for practitioners to not only interpret but explain to their patients (1-3). This skepticism is not unfounded as multiple examples of black-box solutions identifying incidental correlates as the key predictors have highlighted the potential bias in a training set, or reward system, that a ML model may exploit; for example a model discerning wolves from huskies based on snow in the background rather than features of the dogs (1, 4, 5).

Endocrinological, artificial intelligence, diabete↗

Cross-source sensing data fusion for building occupancy prediction with adaptive lasso feature filtering

Fusing various sensing data sources can significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of building occupancy detection. Fusing environmental sensors and wireless network signals are seldom studied for its computational and technical complexity. Here, this study aims to propose an integrated adaptive lasso model that is able to extract critical data features for environmental and Wi-Fi probe dual sensing sources. Through rapid feature extraction and process simplification, the proposed method aims to improve the computational efficiency of occupancy detecting models. To validate the proposed model, an onsite experiment was conducted to examine two occupancy data resolutions, (real-time and four-level occupancy resolutions). The results suggested that, among all twelve features, eight features are most relevant. The mean absolute error of the real-time occupancy can be reduced to 2.18 and F1_accuracy is about 84.36% for the four-level occupancy.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Hydrothermal solution calorimetry in acidic aqueous solutions and revisiting the standard partial molal thermodynamic properties of Nd 3+ from 25 to 300 °C

The mobility of rare earth elements (REE) can be predicted in aqueous fluids using geochemical modeling but the accuracy of these models strongly depends on the availability of robust thermodynamic properties for the REE aqueous species. The REE 3+ aqua ions are important in the derivation of the formation constants of all the major REE complexes including the chloride, sulfate, and fluoride species which predominate in many hydrothermal-magmatic systems. However, the thermodynamic properties of the REE 3+ aqua ions are still commonly derived from the Helgeson-Kirkham-Flowers (HKF) equation of state parameters tabulated several decades ago. The standard state thermodynamic properties at reference conditions (25 °C and 1bar) and their extrapolations to high temperature need to be verified, if not revised, based on hydrothermal experiments. In this study, the enthalpy of solution was measured for synthetic Nd hydroxide from 25 to 150 ºC to retrieve the standard partial molal thermodynamic properties of Nd 3+ as a function of temperature. The experiments were conducted in aqueous perchloric acid based solutions with starting pH of 2 and varying ionic strength (0.01 to 0.09 mol/kg NaClO 4 ). The standard partial molal enthalpy of formation (Δ f H°) of Nd 3+ derived from the experimental study displays differences of up to 10 kJ/mol compared to the enthalpy values derived from the HKF equation of state in the studied temperature range. These inaccuracies are resolved by adjusting the standard partial molal Gibbs energy of formation (Δ f G°) of Nd 3+ at 25 °C and 1 bar from -672.0 to -679.7 kJ/mol. The heat capacity function (C p °) derived between 25 and 150 ºC can be described by: C p ° = a 0 + a 1 ·T + a 2 ·T -2 , with a 0 = 1256, a 1 = -2.68, a 2 = -55.56·10 6 and T in Kelvin. A set of recommended thermodynamic properties is provided for the Nd 3+ aqua ions and corrections are provided for the chloride and fluoride species to remain internally consistent with the experimentally derived properties. These results allow predicting accurately the solubility of monazite between 25 and 300 ºC. Before these corrections, the properties for the Nd 3+ aqua ions derived from the HKF parameters resulted in up to ~1.5 orders of magnitude lower monazite solubility than determined experimentally. Here, a revision of the REE +3 aqua ions properties is necessary to accurately predict the mobility of REE in hydrothermal acidic solutions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Building a DFT+U machine learning interatomic potential for uranium dioxide

Despite uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) being a widely used nuclear fuel, fuel performance models rely extensively on empirical correlations of material behavior, leveraging the historical operating experience of UO 2 . Mechanistic models that consider an atomistic understanding of the processes governing fuel performance (such as fission gas release and creep) will enable a better description of fuel behavior under non-prototypical conditions such as in new reactor concepts or for modified UO 2 fuel compositions. To this end, molecular dynamics simulation is a powerful tool for rapidly predicting physical properties of proposed fuel candidates. However, the reliability of these simulations depends largely on the accuracy of the atomic forces. Traditionally, these forces are computed using either a classical force field (FF) or density functional theory (DFT). While DFT is relatively accurate, the computational cost is burdensome, especially for f-electron elements, such as actinides. By contrast, classical FFs are computationally efficient but are less accurate. For these reasons, we report a new accurate machine learning interatomic potential (MLIP) for UO 2 that provides high-fidelity reproduction of DFT forces at a similar low cost to classical FFs. We employ an active learning approach that autonomously augments the DFT training data set to iteratively refine the MLIP. To further improve the quality of our predictions, we utilize transfer learning to retrain our MLIP to higher-accuracy DFT+U data. We validate our MLIPs by comparing predicted physical properties (e.g., thermal expansion and elastic properties) with those from existing classical FFs and DFT/DFT+U calculations, as well as with experimental data when available.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗