Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Optimal estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,333 records · Page 74
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

An Integrated Framework for Risk Assessment of Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants: Methodology Refinement and Exploration

This report documents activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) risk assessment project. In FY 2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a technical basis to support effective, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. A risk assessment-informed framework was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate, risk informed capability to quantitatively estimate the safety margin obtained from plant modernization, especially for safety-related DI&C systems, (2) support and supplement existing risk informed DI&C design guides by providing quantitative risk information and evidence, (3) offer a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems, (4) assure the long-term safety and reliability of safety-related DI&C systems, and (5) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals, the LWRS-developed framework provides a means to address relevant technical issues by: (1) defining a risk informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade that integrates hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying risk informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify corresponding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the component level, system level, and plant level, and (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks, thus to support the development and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Adding diversity within a system or components is the primary means to eliminate and mitigate CCFs, but diversity also increases system complexity and may not address all sources of systematic failures. Optimization of diversity and redundancy applications for the safety-critical DI&C systems remains a challenge. To deal with the technical issues in addressing potential software CCFs in safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs and supporting relevant design optimization, the proposed framework provides: (a) A best-estimate, risk informed capability to address new technical digital issues quantitatively, focusing on software CCFs in safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs; (b) A common and a modularized platform for DI&C designers, software developers, cybersecurity analysts, and plant engineers to predict and prevent risk in the early design stage of DI&C systems; (c) Technical bases and risk informed insights to assist users address the risk informed alternatives for evaluation of CCFs in safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs; and (d) A risk informed tool that offers a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems to support system design decisions in diversity and redundancy applications. The research and development efforts of this project in FY 2023 are focused on refining current methods on software CCF modeling and estimation and exploring additional innovative approaches to risk assessment of DI&C systems to enable a more comprehensive and complete assessment of various safety-related DI&C design architectures. The primary audience of this report are DI&C designers, engineers, and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) practitioners. This includes stakeholders, such as the nuclear utilities and regulators who consider the deployment and upgrade of DI&C systems, DI&C software developers and reviewers, and cybersecurity specialists. It should be noted that all the analyses are performed for the demonstration of the methodology, not for the evaluation of an actual digital control system. Results are obtained based on limited design information and testing data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1984

Estimation of regions of attraction and ultimate boundedness for multiloop LQ regulators

Closed-loop stability is investigated for multivariable linear time-invariant systems controlled by optimal full state feedback linear quadratic (LQ) regulators, with nonlinear gains present in the feedback channels. Estimates are obtained for the region of attraction when the nonlinearities escape the (0.5, infinity) sector in regions away from the origin and for the region of ultimate boundedness when the nonlinearities escape the sector near the origin. The expressions for these regions also provide methods for selecting the performance function parameters in order to obtain LQ designs with better tolerance for nonlinearities. The analytical results are illustrated by applying them to the problem of controlling the rigid-body pitch angle and elastic motion of a large, flexible space antenna.

Joshi, S. M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulation-driven optimization of high-order meshes in ALE hydrodynamics

Here we propose tools for high-order mesh optimization and demonstrate their benefits in the context of multi-material Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) compressible shock hydrodynamic applications. The mesh optimization process is driven by information provided by the simulation which uses the optimized mesh, such as shock positions, material regions, known error estimates, etc. These simulation features are usually represented discretely, for instance, as finite element functions on the Lagrangian mesh. The discrete nature of the input is critical for the practical applicability of the algorithms we propose and distinguishes this work from approaches that strictly require analytical information. Our methods are based on node movement through a high-order extension of the Target-Matrix Optimization Paradigm (TMOP). The proposed formulation is fully algebraic and relies only on local Jacobian matrices, so it is applicable to all types of mesh elements, in 2D and 3D, and any order of the mesh. We discuss the notions of constructing adaptive target matrices and obtaining their derivatives, reconstructing discrete data in intermediate meshes, node limiting that enables improvement of global mesh quality while preserving space-dependent local mesh features, and appropriate normalization of the objective function. The adaptivity methods are combined with automatic ALE triggers that can provide robustness of the mesh evolution and avoid excessive remap procedures. The benefits of the new high-order TMOP technology are illustrated on several simulations performed in the high-order ALE application BLAST.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Response Surface Experiment Designs for Distributed Propulsion Aircraft Aero-Propulsive Modeling

Modern distributed hybrid and electric propulsion aircraft, including vertical, short, and conventional takeoff and landing configurations, exhibit significant aero-propulsive complexity and a large number of interacting test factors. This paper presents the development and evaluation of experiment designs for aero-propulsive characterization of distributed propulsion aircraft. Five different foundational response surface designs are evaluated to inform the development of two sequential design approaches tailored to complex aircraft aerodynamic characterization experiments. The first approach, which builds on sequential face-centered central composite designs, has been used previously to develop aero-propulsive models for complex aircraft using wind tunnel testing. The second approach is a new design strategy leveraging a regular I-optimal and nested I-optimal design that was developed for this study. The two sequential design strategies are compared for experiments with a large number of test factors using pre-experiment design evaluation metrics, as well as modeling results obtained from simulated wind tunnel data for the NASA LA-8 aircraft. The design evaluation metrics show that the sequential I-optimal base design has higher statistical power, lower correlation among candidate regressors, lower prediction variance, and more precise parameter estimates. The simulated wind tunnel experiments conducted using each design reveal that the sequential I-optimal base design has better predictive capability with fewer test points. The experiment design and evaluation procedures are described in detail to inform future aerodynamic characterization experiments for complex aircraft.

design of experiments↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Optimization of Catalysis with In-Context Learning

Large language models (LLMs) can perform accurate classification with zero or few examples through in-context learning (ICL), allowing the model to observe query-relevant examples at inference time and eliminating the need for additional weight updates to generalize beyond its original training data. We extend this capability to regression with uncertainty estimation using frozen LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, Gemini), enabling Bayesian optimization (BO) in natural language without explicit model training or feature engineering. We apply this to materials discovery by representing materials as synthesis and testing procedures for use in natural language prompts. This Bayesian, design-first approach prioritizes optimization toward target material properties before detailed characterization, in contrast to conventional experimental workflows that often emphasize characterization of suboptimal materials. On benchmarks like aqueous solubility and oxidative coupling of methane (OCM), BO-ICL matches or outperforms Gaussian processes. In live experiments on the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, BO-ICL identifies multimetallic catalysts that approach equilibrium CO yield within 6 and 10 iterations from a pool of 3,700 and 360,000 candidates, respectively. Our method redefines materials representation and accelerates discovery, with broad applications across catalysis, materials science, and AI.

Calibration↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-output multilevel best linear unbiased estimators via semidefinite programming

Multifidelity forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) problems often involve multiple quantities of interest and heterogeneous models (e.g., different grids, equations, dimensions, physics, surrogate and reduced-order models). While computational efficiency is key in this context, multi-output strategies in multilevel/multifidelity methods are either sub-optimal or non-existent. In this paper we extend multilevel best linear unbiased estimators (MLBLUE) to multi-output forward UQ problems and we present new semidefinite programming formulations for their optimal setup. Not only do these formulations yield the optimal number of samples required, but also the optimal selection of low-fidelity models to use. While existing MLBLUE approaches are single-output only and require a non-trivial nonlinear optimization procedure, the new multi-output formulations can be solved reliably and efficiently. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of the new methods and formulations in practical UQ problems with model heterogeneity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to rising CO 2

Theory predicts that rising CO 2 increases global photosynthesis, a process known as CO 2 fertilization, and that this is responsible for much of the current terrestrial carbon sink. The estimated magnitude of the historic CO 2 fertilization, however, differs by an order of magnitude between long-term proxies, remote sensing-based estimates and terrestrial biosphere models. Here we constrain the likely historic effect of CO 2 on global photosynthesis by combining terrestrial biosphere models, ecological optimality theory, remote sensing approaches and an emergent constraint based on global carbon budget estimates. Our analysis suggests that CO 2 fertilization increased global annual terrestrial photosynthesis by 13.5 ± 3.5% or 15.9 ± 2.9 PgC (mean ± s.d.) between 1981 and 2020. Our results help resolve conflicting estimates of the historic sensitivity of global terrestrial photosynthesis to CO 2 and highlight the large impact anthropogenic emissions have had on ecosystems worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distribution System State Estimation With High Penetration of Demand Response Enabled Loads

Demand-side operations incentivize utility customers to take part in various grid services. A demand response enabled load (DREL) is a flexible grid asset that schedules electricity consumption in response to a time-of-use (TOU) energy price. Consequently, its energy profile differs from that of a conventional load that is insensitive to price. This difference may cause new challenges for distribution system state estimation (DSSE). It is well known that DSSE often needs to use pseudo-measurements based on historic load profiles to increase system observability. However, historic profiles of conventional loads are not representative of DREL behaviors. Additionally, the inaccuracy impacts DSSE results and other DSSE-dependent operations. In this paper, we propose an online pseudo-measurement generation approach for DSSE with DRELs. We formulate an optimization model to represent DRELs self-adjusting actions. Sampling-based stochastic optimization techniques are proposed to account for uncertainties in DRELs. A set of representative DREL behavior data corresponding to the samples are used to characterize DREL pseudo-measurements. Case studies with modified IEEE 123-bus test system verify the validity of the proposed work.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1988

Tracing structural optima as a function of available resources by a homotopy method

Optimization problems are typically solved by starting with an initial estimate and proceeding iteratively to improve it until the optimum is found. The design points along the path from the initial estimate to the optimum are usually of no value. The present work proposes a strategy for tracing a path of optimum solutions parameterized by the amount of available resources. The paper specifically treats the optimum design of a structure to maximize its buckling load. Equations for the optimum path are obtained using Lagrange multipliers, and solved by a homotopy method. The solution path has several transitions from unimodal to bimodal solutions. The Lagrange multipliers and second-order optimality conditions are used to detect branching points and to switch to the optimum solution path. The procedure is applied to the design of a foundation which supports a column for maximum buckling load. Using the total available foundation stiffness as a homotopy parameter, a set of optimum foundation designs is obtained.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Santa Barbara Desalination Digital Twin Technical Report

A digital twin is a computer model that has sufficient breadth and fidelity to enable diagnostic and predictive analyses for outputs of interest. We have constructed a digital twin of the SB desal plant using the ProteusLib software developed for NAWI under task 4.2.2, and specifically the ProteusLib models of pumps, filters, mixers, splitters, and reverse osmosis units and a seawater property model. The steps needed to configure this digital twin with the real conditions of the SB desal plant are: (1) Data reconciliation, which is gathering the data and plant connectivity and ensure that all relevant values are present and in the correct units and validating the data using material and energy balances, and correct for errors, gaps, or deviations; (2) Parameter estimation, which is matching model parameters with data from previous step, filling missing parameters with initial estimates, then iteratively refining estimated values. Once we completed the digital twin, we used the optimization capabilities of ProteusLib to compute outputs of interest over a chosen range of inputs. The primary output of interest to the owners of the plant is its specific energy consumption (kWh/acre-foot). The remainder of this report will provide more detail on the data reconciliation, parameter estimation, and analyses we performed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Phenological Controls on Carbon Dynamics in Dryland Sagebrush Ecosystems

Dryland ecosystems play an important role in determining how precipitation anomalies affect terrestrial carbonfluxes at regional to global scales. Thus, to understand how climate change may affect the global carbon cycle,we must also be able to understand and model its effects on dryland vegetation. Dynamic Global VegetationModels (DGVMs) are an important tool for modeling ecosystem dynamics, but they often struggle to reproduceseasonal patterns of plant productivity. Because the phenological niche of many plant species is linked to bothtotal productivity and competitive interactions with other plants, errors in how process-based models representphenology hinder our ability to predict climate change impacts. This may be particularly problematic in drylandecosystems where many species have developed a complex phenology in response to seasonal variability in bothmoisture and temperature. Here, we examine how uncertainty in key parameters as well as the structure ofexisting phenology routines affect the ability of a DGVM to match seasonal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) andgross primary productivity (GPP) across a temperature and precipitation gradient. First, we optimized modelparameters using a combination of site-level eddy covariance data and remotely-sensed LAI data. Second, wemodified the model to include a semi-deciduous phenology type and added flexibility to the representation ofgrass phenology. While optimizing parameters reduced model bias, the largest gains in model performance wereassociated with the development of our new representation of phenology. This modified model was able to bettercapture seasonal patterns of both leaf area index (R2=0.75) and gross primary productivity (R2=0.84), thoughits ability to estimate total annual GPP depended on using eddy covariance data for optimization. The new modelalso resulted in a more realistic outcome of modeled competition between grass and shrubs. These findingsdemonstrate the importance of improving how DGVMs represent phenology in order to accurately forecastclimate change impacts in dryland ecosystems.

Ecosystem model Phenology Parameter optimization E↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural message-passing for objective-based uncertainty quantification and optimal experimental design

Various real-world scientific applications involve the mathematical modeling of complex uncertain systems with numerous unknown parameters. Accurate parameter estimation is often practically infeasible in such systems, as the available training data may be insufficient and the cost of acquiring additional data may be high. In such cases, based on a Bayesian paradigm, we can design robust operators retaining the best overall performance across all possible models and design optimal experiments that can effectively reduce uncertainty to enhance the performance of such operators maximally. While objective-based uncertainty quantification (objective-UQ) based on MOCU (mean objective cost of uncertainty) provides an effective means for quantifying uncertainty in complex systems, the high computational cost of estimating MOCU has been a challenge in applying it to real-world scientific/engineering problems. In this work, we propose a novel scheme to reduce the computational cost for objective-UQ via MOCU based on a data-driven approach. We adopt a neural message-passing model for surrogate modeling, incorporating a novel axiomatic constraint loss that penalizes an increase in the estimated system uncertainty. As an illustrative example, we consider the optimal experimental design (OED) problem for uncertain Kuramoto models, where the goal is to predict the experiments that can most effectively enhance robust synchronization performance through uncertainty reduction. We show that our proposed approach can accelerate MOCU-based OED by four to five orders of magnitude, without any visible performance loss compared to the state-of-the-art. The proposed approach applies to general OED tasks, beyond the Kuramoto model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2019

Machine Learning, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and Optimal Algorithms to Characterize the AdvACT Kilopixel Transition-Edge Sensor Arrays

Next-generation focal planes comprising dozens of kilopixel transition-edge sensor (TES) arrays require new methods to rapidly screen candidate arrays, evaluate array non-idealities in the field, identify outlier devices for removal, and optimize the array performance in the field. We demonstrate robust methods to estimate TES parameters (critical temperatures and thermal conductivity parameters) and their uncertainties using a custom Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We also constrain systematic effects in estimating the TES parameters from non-isothermal current-voltage curves (IVs) at approximately a ~3% level. Additionally, for the first time, we have applied Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to tune detector arrays and optimize their performance.

Maria Salatino↗
DOE OSTI2023

Designing a boron nitride polyethylene composite for shielding neutrons

Neutrons are encountered in many different fields, including condensed matter physics, space exploration, nuclear power, and healthcare. Neutrons interacting with a biological target produce secondary charged particles that are damaging to human health. The most effective way to shield neutrons is to slow them to thermal energies and then capture the thermalized neutrons. These factors lead us to consider potential materials solutions for neutron shields that maximize the protection of humans while minimizing the shield mass and adapt well to modern additive manufacturing techniques. Using hexagonal boron nitride (hBN) as a capture medium and high-density polyethylene (HDPE) as a thermalization medium, we aim to design the optimal internal structure of h 10 BN/HDPE composites by minimizing the effective dose, which is a measure of the estimated radiation damage exposure for a human. Through Monte Carlo simulations in Geant4, we find that the optimal structure reduces the effective dose up to a factor of 72 over aluminum (Al) and up to a factor of 4 over HDPE; this is a significant improvement in shielding effectiveness that could dramatically reduce the radiation exposure of occupational workers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1975

Development of a method for optimal maneuver analysis of complex space missions

A system that allows mission planners to find optimal multiple-burn space trajectories easily is described. Previously developed methods with different gravity assumptions perform the optimization function. The power of these programs is extended by a method of costate estimation. A penalty function method of constraining coast arc times to be positive is included. The capability of the method is demonstrated by finding the optimal control for three different space missions. These include a shuttle abort-once-around mission and two- and three-burn geosynchronous satellite-placement missions.

Mcadoo, S. F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Finite dimensional approximation of a class of constrained nonlinear optimal control problems

An abstract framework for the analysis and approximation of a class of nonlinear optimal control and optimization problems is constructed. Nonlinearities occur in both the objective functional and in the constraints. The framework includes an abstract nonlinear optimization problem posed on infinite dimensional spaces, and approximate problem posed on finite dimensional spaces, together with a number of hypotheses concerning the two problems. The framework is used to show that optimal solutions exist, to show that Lagrange multipliers may be used to enforce the constraints, to derive an optimality system from which optimal states and controls may be deduced, and to derive existence results and error estimates for solutions of the approximate problem. The abstract framework and the results derived from that framework are then applied to three concrete control or optimization problems and their approximation by finite element methods. The first involves the von Karman plate equations of nonlinear elasticity, the second, the Ginzburg-Landau equations of superconductivity, and the third, the Navier-Stokes equations for incompressible, viscous flows.

Gunzburger, Max D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Calibrating Constant Elasticity of Substitution Technologies to Bottom-up Cost Estimates

We propose a method for calibrating an industry-level technology to engineering (bottom-up) estimates with a particular focus on abatement opportunities. As a demonstration, substitution elasticities across inputs are adjusted in the nested cost function for the electricity sector to best fit a target marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve derived from engineering assessments of available technologies. Elasticities are optimized over an entire relevant range of the MAC, whereas current techniques use local point estimates under little or no abatement. In the context of fitting to a given MAC we evaluate alternative nesting structures and find that, while complexity in nesting improves the fit, even relatively simple nesting structures can reasonably approximate the target MAC. In our example, focused on the electricity sector, we find standard elasticities adopted in top-down models moderately overstate abatement costs relative to the engineering targets. In our preferred specification the most important adjustment is to escalate the substitution elasticity between energy and value-added inputs. This is consistent with an argument that the current set of point estimates fail to properly account for new capital-based technologies. These conclusions, however, are sensitive to our assumption about output-intensity abatement and consumer price responsiveness, both of which are not delineated in engineering estimates.

abatement cost↗
DOE OSTI2023

Symmetry-resolved entanglement entropy, spectra & boundary conformal field theory

We perform a comprehensive analysis of the symmetry-resolved (SR) entanglement entropy (EE) for one single interval in the ground state of a 1 + 1D conformal field theory (CFT), that is invariant under an arbitrary finite or compact Lie group, G. We utilize the boundary CFT approach to study the total EE, which enables us to find the universal leading order behavior of the SREE and its first correction, which explicitly depends on the irreducible representation under consideration and breaks the equipartition of entanglement. We present two distinct schemes to carry out these computations. The first relies on the evaluation of the charged moments of the reduced density matrix. This involves studying the action of the defect-line, that generates the symmetry, on the boundary states of the theory. This perspective also paves the way for discussing the infeasibility of studying symmetry resolution when an anomalous symmetry is present. The second scheme draws a parallel between the SREE and the partition function of an orbifold CFT. This approach allows for the direct computation of the SREE without the need to use charged moments. From this standpoint, the infeasibility of defining the symmetry-resolved EE for an anomalous symmetry arises from the obstruction to gauging. Finally, we derive the symmetry-resolved entanglement spectra for a CFT invariant under a finite symmetry group. We revisit a similar problem for CFT with compact Lie group, explicitly deriving an improved formula for U(1) resolved entanglement spectra. Using the Tauberian formalism, we can estimate the aforementioned EE spectra rigorously by proving an optimal lower and upper bound on the same. In the abelian case, we perform numerical checks on the bound and find perfect agreement.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗