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Theory of steady-state plane tunneling-assisted impact ionization waves

The effect of band-to-band and trap-assisted tunneling on the properties of steady-state plane ionization waves in p{sup +}-n-n{sup +} structures is theoretically analyzed. It is shown that such tunneling-assisted impact ionization waves do not differ in a qualitative sense from ordinary impact ionization waves propagating due to the avalanche multiplication of uniformly distributed seed electrons and holes. The quantitative differences of tunneling-assisted impact ionization waves from impact ionization waves are reduced to a slightly different relation between the wave velocity u and the maximum field strength E{sub M} at the front. It is shown that disregarding impact ionization does not exclude the possibility of the existence of tunneling-assisted ionization waves; however, their structure radically changes, and their velocity strongly decreases for the same E{sub M}. A comparison of the dependences u(E{sub M}) for various ionization-wave types makes it possible to determine the conditions under which one of them is dominant. In conclusion, unresolved problems concerning the theory of tunneling-assisted impact ionization waves are discussed and the directions of further studies are outlined.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Lands with Wilderness Characteristics, Resource Management Plan Constraints, and Land Exchanges: Cross-Jurisdictional Management and Impacts on Unconventional Fuel Development in Utah's Uinta Basin

Utah is rich in oil shale and oil sands resources. Chief among the challenges facing prospective unconventional fuel developers is the ability to access these resources. Access is heavily dependent upon land ownership and applicable management requirements. Understanding constraints on resource access and the prospect of consolidating resource holdings across a fragmented management landscape is critical to understanding the role Utah’s unconventional fuel resources may play in our nation’s energy policy. This Topical Report explains the historic roots of the “crazy quilt” of western land ownership, how current controversies over management of federal public land with wilderness character could impact access to unconventional fuels resources, and how land exchanges could improve management efficiency. Upon admission to the Union, the State of Utah received the right to title to more than one-ninth of all land within the newly formed state. This land is held in trust to support public schools and institutions, and is managed to generate revenue for trust beneficiaries. State trust lands are scattered across the state in mostly discontinuous 640-acre parcels, many of which are surrounded by federal land and too small to develop on their own. Where state trust lands are developable but surrounded by federal land, federal land management objectives can complicate state trust land development. The difficulty generating revenue from state trust lands can frustrate state and local government officials as well as citizens advocating for economic development. Likewise, the prospect of industrial development of inholdings within prized conservation landscapes creates management challenges for federal agencies. One major tension involves whether certain federal public lands possess wilderness character, and if so, whether management of those lands should emphasize wilderness values over other uses. On December 22, 2010, Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar issued Secretarial Order 3310, Protecting Wilderness Characteristics on Lands Managed by the Bureau of Land Management. Supporters argue that the Order merely provides guidance regarding implementation of existing legal obligations without creating new rights or duties. Opponents describe Order 3310 as subverting congressional authority to designate Wilderness Areas and as closing millions of acres of public lands to energy development and commodity production. While opponents succeeded in temporarily defunding the Order’s implementation and forcing the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to adopt a more collaborative approach, the fundamental questions remain: Which federal public lands possess wilderness characteristics and how should those lands be managed? The closely related question is: How might management of such resources impact unconventional fuel development within Utah? These questions remain pressing independent of the Order because the BLM, which manages the majority of federal land in Utah, is statutorily obligated to maintain an up-to-date inventory of federal public lands and the resources they contain, including lands with wilderness characteristics. The BLM is also legally obligated to develop and periodically update land use plans, relying on information obtained in its public lands inventory. The BLM cannot sidestep these hard choices, and failure to consider wilderness characteristics during the planning process will derail the planning effort. Based on an analysis of the most recent inventory data, lands with wilderness characteristics — whether already subject to mandatory protection under the Wilderness Act, subject to discretionary protections as part of BLM Resource Management Plan revisions, or potentially subject to new protections under Order 3310 — are unlikely to profoundly impact oil shale development within Utah’s Uinta Basin. Lands with wilderness characteristics are likely to v have a greater impact on oil sands resources, particularly those resources found in the southern part of the state. Management requirements independent of lands with wilderness characteristics far overshadow the challenges posed by wilderness issues. Wilderness character issues aside, a need to improve management integration remains. In researching past efforts to manage across the fragmented landscape we found that unilateral actions have been deeply divisive and engendered distrust among those impacted by the action. This distrust can linger for decades. Collaborative efforts, whether intended to protect lands, foster development, or do both, can represent an attractive alternative to unilateral action. Such collaborative efforts are more likely to succeed when they respond to strong incentives to act, evidence widespread involvement and support, and benefit from a committed champion. Projects are all but certain to fail where participants overreach or one of these elements is missing. For more than three decades, the state and federal government have cooperatively pursued land exchanges in order to “block up” isolated state trust lands and eliminate inholdings. These efforts can advance both conservation and development objectives, and are generally conducted in conjunction with efforts to protect extraordinary federal lands. Congress recognized the value of such exchanges and, as part of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, directed the Department of the Interior to pursue land exchanges as a means of facilitating environmentally responsible oil shale and oil sands recovery. But land exchanges are not without their challenges. Federal law requires equalizing the value of the lands and resources to be exchanged, and various means of equalizing value have been attempted. More flexible approaches have a higher likelihood of success, but are often criticized as resulting in an economic windfall for one party. Today challenges associated with appraisal and valuation stand as the most significant obstacles in the way of large-scale exchanges. Greater reliance on revenue sharing provisions that prevent an economic windfall to one party and avoid challenges inherent in valuing oil shale and oil sands resources may mark a promising path forward. The success or failure of these efforts could profoundly impact both the prospect of unconventional fuel development and wilderness character protection.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

ACTUAL WASTE TESTING OF GYCOLATE IMPACTS ON THE SRS TANK FARM

Glycolic acid is being studied as a replacement for formic acid in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) feed preparation process. After implementation, the recycle stream from DWPF back to the high-level waste Tank Farm will contain soluble sodium glycolate. Most of the potential impacts of glycolate in the Tank Farm were addressed via a literature review and simulant testing, but several outstanding issues remained. This report documents the actual-waste tests to determine the impacts of glycolate on storage and evaporation of Savannah River Site high-level waste. The objectives of this study are to address the following: Determine the extent to which sludge constituents (Pu, U, Fe, etc.) dissolve (the solubility of sludge constituents) in the glycolate-containing 2H-evaporator feed. Determine the impact of glycolate on the sorption of fissile (Pu, U, etc.) components onto sodium aluminosilicate solids. The first objective was accomplished through actual-waste testing using Tank 43H and 38H supernatant and Tank 51H sludge at Tank Farm storage conditions. The second objective was accomplished by contacting actual 2H-evaporator scale with the products from the testing for the first objective. There is no anticipated impact of up to 10 g/L of glycolate in DWPF recycle to the Tank Farm on tank waste component solubilities as investigated in this test. Most components were not influenced by glycolate during solubility tests, including major components such as aluminum, sodium, and most salt anions. There was potentially a slight increase in soluble iron with added glycolate, but the soluble iron concentration remained so low (on the order of 10 mg/L) as to not impact the iron to fissile ratio in sludge. Uranium and plutonium appear to have been supersaturated in 2H-evaporator feed solution mixture used for this testing. As a result, there was a reduction of soluble uranium and plutonium as a function of time. The change in soluble uranium concentration was independent of added glycolate concentration. The change in soluble plutonium content was dependent on the added glycolate concentration, with higher levels of glycolate (5 g/L and 10 g/L) appearing to suppress the plutonium solubility. The inclusion of glycolate did not change the dissolution of or sorption onto actual-waste 2H-evaporator pot scale to an extent that will impact Tank Farm storage and concentration. The effects that were noted involved dissolution of components from evaporator scale and precipitation of components onto evaporator scale that were independent of the level of added glycolate.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Retrospective Analysis of the Benefits and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

This analysis is the first-ever comprehensive assessment of the benefits and impacts of state renewable portfolio standards (RPSs). This joint National Renewable Energy Laboratory-Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory project provides a retrospective analysis of RPS program benefits and impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions reductions, air pollution emission reductions, water use reductions, gross jobs and economic development impacts, wholesale electricity price reduction impacts, and natural gas price reduction impacts. Wherever possible, benefits and impacts are quantified in monetary terms. The paper will inform state policymakers, RPS program administrators, industry, and others about the costs and benefits of state RPS programs. In particular, the work seeks to inform decision-making surrounding ongoing legislative proposals to scale back, freeze, or expand existing RPS programs, as well as future discussions about increasing RPS targets or otherwise increasing renewable energy associated with Clean Power Plan compliance or other emission-reduction goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Retrospective Analysis of the Benefits and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

This analysis is the first-ever comprehensive assessment of the benefits and impacts of state renewable portfolio standards (RPSs). This joint National Renewable Energy Laboratory-Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory project provides a retrospective analysis of RPS program benefits and impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions reductions, air pollution emission reductions, water use reductions, gross jobs and economic development impacts, wholesale electricity price reduction impacts, and natural gas price reduction impacts. Wherever possible, benefits and impacts are quantified in monetary terms. The paper will inform state policymakers, RPS program administrators, industry, and others about the costs and benefits of state RPS programs. In particular, the work seeks to inform decision-making surrounding ongoing legislative proposals to scale back, freeze, or expand existing RPS programs, as well as future discussions about increasing RPS targets or otherwise increasing renewable energy associated with Clean Power Plan compliance or other emission-reduction goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impact of chemistry on Standard High Solids Vessel Design mixing

The plan for resolving technical issues regarding mixing performance within vessels of the Hanford Waste Treatment Plant Pretreatment Facility directs a chemical impact study to be performed. The vessels involved are those that will process higher (e.g., 5 wt % or more) concentrations of solids. The mixing equipment design for these vessels includes both pulse jet mixers (PJM) and air spargers. This study assesses the impact of feed chemistry on the effectiveness of PJM mixing in the Standard High Solids Vessel Design (SHSVD). The overall purpose of this study is to complement the Properties that Matter document in helping to establish an acceptable physical simulant for full-scale testing. The specific objectives for this study are (1) to identify the relevant properties and behavior of the in-process tank waste that control the performance of the system being tested, (2) to assess the solubility limits of key components that are likely to precipitate or crystallize due to PJM and sparger interaction with the waste feeds, (3) to evaluate the impact of waste chemistry on rheology and agglomeration, (4) to assess the impact of temperature on rheology and agglomeration, (5) to assess the impact of organic compounds on PJM mixing, and (6) to provide the technical basis for using a physical-rheological simulant rather than a physical-rheological-chemical simulant for full-scale vessel testing. Among the conclusions reached are the following: The primary impact of precipitation or crystallization of salts due to interactions between PJMs or spargers and waste feeds is to increase the insoluble solids concentration in the slurries, which will increase the slurry yield stress. Slurry yield stress is a function of pH, ionic strength, insoluble solids concentration, and particle size. Ionic strength and chemical composition can affect particle size. Changes in temperature can affect SHSVD mixing through its effect on properties such as viscosity, yield stress, solubility, and vapor pressure, or chemical reactions that occur at high temperatures. Organic compounds will affect SHSVD mixing through their effect on properties such as rheology, particle agglomeration/size, particle density, and particle concentration.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Potential Impact of Electromagnetic Fields from Undersea Cable on Migratory Fish Behavior

The US Department of Energy and US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management commissioned this study to address the limited scientific data on the impacts of high voltage direct current cables on aquatic biota, in particular migratory species within the San Francisco Bay. Empirical evidence exists that marine animals perceive and orient to local distortions in the earth’s main geomagnetic field magnetic field. The electromagnetic fields (EMF) generated by the cables that carry electricity from hydrokinetic energy sources to shore-based power stations may produce similar local distortions in the earth’s main field. Concern exists that animals that migrate along the continental shelves might orient to the EMF from the cables, and move either inshore or offshore away from their normal path. The Trans Bay Cable (TBC) is a ±200-kilovolt (kV), 400 MW 85-km long High Voltage Direct Current (DC) buried transmission line linking Pittsburg, CA with San Francisco, CA (SF) through the San Francisco Bay. The study addresses the following specific questions based on measurements and projections of the EMF produced by an existing marine cable, the TBC, in San Francisco Bay. Specifically, does the presence of EMF from an operating power cable alter the behavior and path of bony fishes and sharks along a migratory corridor? Does the EMF from an operating power cable guide migratory movements or pose an obstacle to movement? To meet the main study objectives several activities needed to be carried out: 1) modeling of the magnetic fields produced by the TBC, 2) assessing the migratory impacts on Chinook salmon smolts (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris) as a result of local magnetic field distortions produced by bridge structures and 3) analyzing behavioral responses by migratory Chinook salmon and green sturgeon to a high-voltage power cable. To meet the first objective, magnetic field measurements were made using two submerged Geometrics magnetometers towed behind a survey vessel in four locations in the San Francisco estuary along profiles crossing the cable path. We applied basic formulas to describe magnetic field from a DC cable summed vectorially with the background geomagnetic field (in the absence of other sources that would perturb the ambient field) to derive characteristics of the cable not immediately or otherwise observable. The magnetic field profiles of 76 survey lines were regressed against the measured fields, representing eight days of measurement. Many profiles were dominated by field distortions caused by bridge structures or other submerged objects, and the cable contribution to the field was not detectable. The regressions based on fundamental principles (Biot Savart law) and the vectorial summation of cable and geomagnetic fields provide estimates of cable characteristics consistent with plausible expectations. For the second objective, detailed gradiometer survey were examined. Distortions in the earth’s main field produced by bridges across the estuary were much greater than those from the TBC. The former anomalies exceeded the latter by an order of magnitude or more. Significant numbers of tagged Chinook salmon smolts migrated past bridges, which produced strong magnetic anomalies, to the Golden Gate Bridge, where they were recorded by dual arrays of acoustic tag-detecting monitors moored in lines across the mouth of the bay. Adult green sturgeon successfully swam upstream and downstream through the estuary on the way to and from their spawning grounds. Hence, the large anomalies produced by the bridges that run perpendicular to these migration routes do not appear to present a strong barrier to the natural seasonal movement patterns of salmonid smolts and adult green sturgeon. Finally, to assess the behavioral responses by migratory Chinook salmon and green sturgeon to a high- voltage power cable - the potential impacts effect of the TBC on fishes migrating through the San Francisco Estuary were examined. These included late-fall run Chinook salmon smolts (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) that migrate downstream through the San Francisco Estuary to the Pacific Ocean and adult green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris), which migrate upstream from the ocean through the estuary to their spawning habitat in the upper Sacramento River and return to the ocean after spawning occurs. Our results indicate Chinook salmon smolts may be attracted to the cable after activation (more cable location crossings, more detections at Bay Bridge, high importance of distance to cable in predicting fish location), but are not impeded from successfully migrating through the San Francisco Bay (similar proportions of successful exits, faster transit rates). Cable activity had opposite effects on outbound and inbound green sturgeon migrations: outbound migrations had significantly longer transit times while inbound migrations had significantly shorter migration times. However, the proportion of green sturgeon that successfully migrated through the San Francisco Bay was not strongly impacted after cable activation for either migration type. Based on the work, we provide the following conclusions: 1) calculations of magnetic fields for assessment of marine life can be performed; however, local anomalies in the fields resulting from submerged structures require validation of such calculations through collection of ambient DC magnetic field data, 2) the large anomalies produced by the bridges that run perpendicular to these migration routes do not appear to present a strong barrier to the natural seasonal movement patterns of salmonid smolts and adult green sturgeon and 3) Chinook salmon smolts may be attracted to the activated cable based on analysis of cable crossing, misdirections, and first presence at the array data, however, the cable activation does not appear to change the proportion of smolts that successfully migrate through the San Francisco Bay. Cable activation impacts inbound and outbound migrating adult green sturgeon: travel time was increased for outbound migrations but decreased for inbound migrations. However, cable activation did not appear to impact the success of either migration type in this species.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

A Method For Determining The Radially-Averaged Effective Impact Area For An Aircraft Crash Into A Structure

This report presents a methodology for deriving the equations which can be used for calculating the radially-averaged effective impact area for a theoretical aircraft crash into a structure. Conventionally, a maximum effective impact area has been used in calculating the probability of an aircraft crash into a structure. Whereas the maximum effective impact area is specific to a single direction of flight, the radially-averaged effective impact area takes into consideration the real life random nature of the direction of flight with respect to a structure. Since the radially-averaged effective impact area is less than the maximum effective impact area, the resulting calculated probability of an aircraft crash into a structure is reduced.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assessment of the Area of Review and Leakage Impact for Site 7 using the NRAP-IAM-CCS Tool, Northern Michigan Basin-CarbonSAFE Phase 1 Pre-Feasibility Study

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Class VI regulations require owners or operators of carbon storage projects to determine an Area of Review (AoR) representative of project risk to underground sources of drinking water (USDWs). The AoR is an estimate of the project footprint and is used to develop monitoring plans to ensure protection of USDWs. In this syudy, the NRAP-IAM-CS software tool was applied to estimate the AoR and the leakage potential of legacy wells located within the AoR to impact groundwater quality at a carbon storage screening site for the NMB-CS, Phase 1 project. The NRAP-IAM-CS is a science-based toolset developed by the U.S. Department of Energy for quantitative risk assessment of geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) (Pawar et al., 2016). The toolset adopts a stochastic approach in which predictions include site uncertainties using storage reservoir, leakage scenario, and shallow groundwater impact reduced order models (ROMs). Risk-based analysis done using the NRAP-IAM-CS yielded an AoR that was comparable to estimates defined by the critical pressure needed move fluid from the reservoir to the overlying USDW through an open wellbore. The risk-based AoR was slightly smaller than that based on the critical pressure (234 km 2 compared to 269 km 2 ), because small fluxes did not impact groundwater quality. Leakage from two legacy wells located within the AoR should not impact groundwater quality over the 30-year injection period. Legacy Well 1 penetrates the simulated CO 2 plume and would require a permeability of 5 x 10 -12 m 2 (~5 Darcy) to impact groundwater quality after about 20 years of injection. Legacy Well 2 falls outside of the CO 2 plume footprint, where reservoir pressures are too small to generate large enough leakage flux to change groundwater quality even with well permeabilities as high as 5 x 10 -11 m 2 (~50 Darcy). This work represents one of the first applications of the NRAP toolset for the screening of potential CO 2 storage sites. The toolset provides a risk-based method of evaluating the AoR and the impact of CO 2 or brine leakage through legacy wells. The following recommendations will strengthen the use of probabilistic assessments for site selection and permitting of Class VI CO 2 injection wells.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Investigation of Energy Dissipation Behavior in Threaded Joints Under Impact Loading Using a Kolsky Tension Bar

Threaded joints are a common fastening method in applications where disassembly may be required. With a fair amount of investigation of static behavior of threaded joints, less emphasis has been placed on the behavior of threaded joints subjected to transient impact loads. Understanding how energy is transferred across threaded joints under impact loading conditions is critical for improved design and optimization for extreme mechanical environments. Many factors, such as pre - torque, pre - tension load, and impact speed can affect how energy is transferred or dissipated across threaded joins. In addition, high-fidelity numerical simulation of mechanical response of threaded components under blast or impact loading requires reliable experiments and subsequent analyses. In this study, the energy dissipation behavior through a threaded joint under impact loading conditions is investigated using a Kolsky tension bar. The aim is to study possible energy dissipation behavior in both time and frequency domains while the threaded joint remains intact. New analytical methods to understand both time-and frequency-domain behavior of threaded joints are presented. Energy dissipation characteristics through steel-to-steel and steel-to-aluminum threaded joints were then investigated with varying parameters such as pre-torque and impact velocity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Visual Impact Assessment of the Energetic Materials Complex Construction Project on Manhattan Project–Era Historic Properties, the TA-06-0037 Concrete Bowl, and the TA-22-0001 Quonset Hut

Concern for potential visual effects to historic Manhattan Project–era properties emerged early in the planning and consultation phase for the upcoming Energetic Materials Complex (EMC) construction project. In initial discussions with project managers and design team members, resource managers became aware of the need to consider potential impacts to the viewsheds of two nearby properties that are eligible for inclusion in the Manhattan Project National Historical Park (MAPR). Resource managers recognized that viewshed characteristics important to the integrity of the Concrete Bowl (Technical Area [TA-]06-0037) and the Quonset Hut (TA-22-0001) conceivably faced the prospect of lasting and irreversible visual impacts. A strategy to gather necessary data soon emerged. The approach presented to the New Mexico State Historic Preservation Officer (SHPO) on April 7, 2021, combined gathering baseline information from field visits with a geographic information system (GIS)-supported viewshed analysis. Accordingly, results from the viewshed analysis would help resource managers determine if a more comprehensive visual impact assessment (VIA) would be needed. If necessitated by the outcome of the GIS viewshed analysis, initial consultation with the SHPO specified the production of a VIA that would explore any potential visual adverse impacts to the Concrete Bowl and the Quonset Hut. Cultural resources and GIS specialists with the Laboratory performed a viewshed analysis shortly after consultation with the SHPO. The analysis indicated a high likelihood that at least one of the two Manhattan Project–era properties would experience at least a minimal level of visual impact and that a VIA would be needed. The resulting analysis provides a description of the undertaking, an account of the properties affected along with an evaluation of historical significance, an examination of potential visual impacts, and a determination of effect to the identified historic properties.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Statement of Work for Impact Testing

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (“LLNL”) will outsource impact testing (also known as drop hammer testing) of PETN (Pentaerythritol tetranitrate) to Safety Management Services Inc. (“Subcontractor”). This document describes the objective, technical approach, and deliverables. Subcontractor will conduct impact testing studies on three PETN samples. LLNL will provide the samples. LLNL selected this company for impact testing because LLNL has an impact test machine purchased from the same vendor. The objective of this work is to answer the following questions: 1) What are the variations in impact sensitivity results between three PETN samples LLNL will provide?; 2) What is the effect of starting mass on impact sensitivity of PETN?

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Price Formation and Grid Operation Impacts from Variable Renewable Energy Resources

Increasing amounts of Variable Renewable Energy Resources (VREs) impact electricity markets and their operation. VREs are intermittent, zero marginal cost resources that tend to displace emissions-intensive generators in electricity dispatch, reducing emissions, but impacting price formation, revenue sufficiency, reliability, and market power mitigation processes of electricity markets. But VREs are not the only factor that affects operational and financial challenges in electricity markets. Declining natural gas prices, changing resource mixes, as well as different electricity market designs and regulatory policies all factor into the challenges both electricity market participants and operators face in today’s electricity markets. With this in-depth examination of electricity markets and related literature review, we aim to inform on key challenges of market design and operation for successful integration of large amounts of zero marginal cost resources. We’ve identified several areas, including VREs impact on price formation, revenue sufficiency, reliability, market power monitoring and mitigation, as well as how state-level incentives and market design impact VREs and these challenges. With each key challenge, we survey the literature to answer the question: To what extent is the problem, and how has it evolved over time? We first conduct a thorough review of ongoing challenges in electricity markets to understand the problem and review the empirical literature to capture important findings on how VREs, specifically, impact the problem. From this review, we highlight metrics that are important to understanding VRE integration and how market designs and outcomes are evolving with increasing levels of VREs. We propose several empirical models for future research to determine the impact of VREs on these identified challenges.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Biochemical Conversion of Herbaceous Biomass to Renewable Diesel: Biorefinery Marginal Air Quality Impacts and Comparison to Feedstock Production

This study assesses the air quality impacts of an advanced biorefinery that produces renewable diesel blendstock (RDB) from lignocellulosic biomass via aerobic respiration (Davis et al. 2022) by estimating fine particulate matter (PM2.5) impacts from biorefinery emissions. It continues a prior analysis that used a geospatial assessment to identify source regions for biomass feedstocks and studied the impact of feedstock production emissions on air quality (Thind et al. 2022). Thind et al. (2022) identified RDB biorefineries that can use corn stover feedstocks of 2,000; 5,200; and 9,100 dry metric tons per day (DMT/day), based in Iowa, and suggested 7 unique counties can serve as hosts for a biorefinery that draws biomass feedstock from neighboring counties. Given 13 unique county-biorefinery size combinations and two waste lignin end uses at the biorefinery (lignin as a fuel for electricity generation and lignin for pellet production), the air-quality-related sustainability aspects of each of these 26 scenarios are assessed by estimating the annual average impacts of biorefinery emissions on the dispersion and formation of secondary PM2.5 in the atmosphere using a novel reduced-complexity air quality model called the Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP). The 26 biorefinery design combinations help capture how a biorefinery's emissions of air pollutants and their resulting impact on local and regional air quality are influenced by the magnitude of production scale, lignin utilization strategy, and location of a proposed biorefinery. Methods developed in Thind et al. (2022) are applied to estimate the constraints on primary PM2.5 and secondary PM2.5 precursor emissions based on compliance with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) annual primary National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of PM2.5 (i.e.12.0 micrograms per cubic meter (microgram/m3)) at downwind receptors of a biorefinery. Incremental PM2.5 concentrations caused by the emission of biorefining corn stover into RDB are assessed and compared to those of corn stover production. To illuminate which upstream supply chain stage of renewable diesel production contributes most to air quality impacts, marginal PM2.5 concentrations are compared between both stages at multiple downwind air quality monitor locations. In addition, through a hotspot analysis, we identify the primary contributing factors of emissions within the feedstock production and biorefinery stage operations. In doing so, we provide insights for improving the air pollutant emission-related sustainability of advanced lignocellulosic biofuel production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Farmers’ Perception of Climate Change and Its Impacts on Agriculture

Climate change and climate variability drive rapid glacier melt and snowpack loss, extreme precipitation and temperature events, and alteration of water availability in the Himalayas. There is increasing observational evidence of climate change impacts on water resource availability and agricultural productivity in the central Himalayan region. Here, we assess the farmers’ perception of climate change and its impacts on agriculture in western Nepal. We interviewed 554 households and conducted eight focus group discussions to collect farmers’ perceptions of temperature and rainfall characteristics, water availability, onset and duration of different seasons, and the impacts of such changes on their lives and livelihoods. Our results indicate that the farmers’ perceptions of rising annual and summer temperatures are consistent with observations. Perception, however, contradicts observed trends in winter temperature, as well as annual, monsoon, and winter precipitation. In addition, farmers are increasingly facing incidences of extreme events, including rainfall, floods, landslides, and droughts. These hazards often impact agricultural production, reducing household income and exacerbating the economic impacts on subsistence farmers. Integrated assessment of farmers’ perceptions and hydrometeorological observations is crucial to improving climate change impact assessment and informing the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Impacts of Single-Scattering and Microphysical Properties of Ice Particles Smaller Than 100 µm on the Bulk Radiative Properties of Tropical Cirrus

There are large uncertainties in the single-scattering (i.e., morphologies) and microphysical (i.e., concentrations) properties of ice particles whose size are less than ~100 µm. Insufficient resolutions of the most advanced cloud probes (e.g., cloud particle imager) cannot resolve the micrometer-scale morphologies of small ice particles. Further, the shattering of large ice particles on probes’ inlets or tips causes uncertainties in the measurement of the concentrations of small ice particles. These uncertainties have large impacts on the single-scattering and microphysical properties of small ice particles that are utilized to quantify the bulk radiative properties of cirrus. In this study, the impacts of uncertainties in the morphologies and concentrations of small ice particles on the bulk radiative properties of tropical cirrus were calculated using measurements acquired during the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment. Five different models (i.e., budding Buckyball, Chebyshev particle, droxtal, Gaussian random sphere, and sphere) that represent the shapes of small ice particles were used to calculate the single-scattering properties. The bulk radiative properties, average phase-function ($\overline{P_{11}}$), and average asymmetry parameter ($\overline{g}$) were computed by combining the measured size/habit distributions and the calculated single-scattering properties of ice particles. The impacts of the selection of varying morphologies of small particles on the bulk radiative properties were quantified. For these calculations, the possible range of the concentrations of small ice particles which depend on the degree of shattered large particles were also used. The impacts of varying the single-scattering properties of small ice particles on the bulk radiative properties were the largest in the upper parts of cirrus (T < –60 °C), while they were the smallest in the lower parts of cirrus (–45 < T < –30 °C). The impacts of uncertainties in the concentrations of small ice particles on the bulk radiative properties were largest in the lower parts of cirrus (–45 < T < –30 °C), whereas they were smallest in the upper parts of cirrus (T < –60 °C). The effect of shattering was maximum in the lower parts of cirrus, whilst it was minimum in the upper parts of cirrus. The combined impacts of uncertainties in the single-scattering (i.e., morphologies) and microphysical (i.e., concentrations) properties of small ice particles revealed variations of up to 11.2% (127.1%; 67.3%) of the integrated intensity in the forward (sideward; backward) angles in $\overline{P_{11}}$ and a corresponding change in $\overline{g}$ by up to 12.61%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vehicle Electrification Impacts on Energy Consumption for Different Connected-Autonomous Vehicle Scenario Runs

Transportation system simulation is a widely accepted approach to evaluate the impact of transport policy deployment. In developing a transportation system deployment model, the energy impact of the model is extremely valuable for sustainability and validation. It is expected that different penetration levels of Connected-Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) will impact travel behavior due to changes in potential factors such as congestion, miles traveled, etc. Along with such impact analyses, it is also important to further quantify the regional energy impact of CAV deployment under different factors of interest. The objective of this paper is to study the energy consumption of electrified vehicles in the future for different penetration levels of CAVs deployment in the City of Chicago. The paper will further provide a statistical analysis of the results to evaluate the impact of the different penetration levels on the different electrified powertrains used in the study.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗