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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Imaging the wakes of jets with energy-energy-energy correlators

As the partons in a high energy jet propagate through the droplet of quark-gluon plasma (QGP) produced in a heavy-ion collision they lose energy to, kick, and are kicked by the medium. The resulting modifications to the parton shower encode information about the microscopic nature of QGP. A direct consequence, however, is that the momentum and energy lost by the parton shower are gained by the medium and, since QGP is a strongly coupled liquid, this means that the jet excites a wake in the droplet of QGP. After freezeout, this wake becomes soft hadrons with net momentum in the jet direction meaning that what an experimentalist later reconstructs as a jet includes hadrons originating from both the modified parton shower and its wake. This has made it challenging to find experimental observables that provide an unambiguous view of the dynamical response of a droplet of QGP to a jet shooting through it. Recent years have seen significant substantial advances in the theoretical and experimental understanding of the substructure of jets, in particular, using correlation functions, $\langle$ ($\vec{n}$ 1 )•••$\mathcal{E}$($\vec{n}$ k ) $\rangle$, of the energy flux operator in proton-proton collisions and, recently, in heavy-ion collisions. So far, such studies have focused primarily on the two-point correlator, which allows for the identification of the angular scale of the underlying dynamics. Higher-point correlators hold the promise of mapping out the dynamics themselves. In this paper we perform the first study of the shape-dependent three-point energy-energy-energy correlator in heavy-ion collisions. Using the Hybrid Model to simulate the interactions of high energy jets with the QGP medium, we show that the three-point correlator presents us with a striking new opportunity. We find that hadrons originating from wakes are the dominant contribution to the three-point correlator in the kinematic regime in which the three points are well-separated in angle, forming a roughly equilateral triangle. This equilateral region of the correlator is far from the region populated by collinear vacuum emissions, making it a canvas on which jet wakes are laid out, where experimentalists can map their shapes. Our work provides a key step towards the systematic use of energy correlators to image and unravel the dynamical response of a droplet of QGP that has been probed by a passing jet, and motivates numerous experimental and theoretical studies.

Jets and Jet Substructure↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phase transitions at unusual values of θ

We calculate the θ dependence in a cousin of QCD, where the vacuum structure can be analyzed exactly. The theory is $\mathcal{N}$ = 2 SU(2) gauge theory with N F = 0, 1, 2, 3 flavors of fundamentals, explicitly broken to $\mathcal{N}$ = 1 via an adjoint superpotential, and coupled to anomaly mediated supersymmetry breaking (AMSB). The hierarchy m AMSB ≪ μ 𝒩=1 ≪ Λ ensures the validity of our IR analysis. As expected from ordinary QCD, the vacuum energy is a function of θ which undergoes 1st order phase transitions between different vacua where the various dyons condense. For N F = 0 we find the expected phase transition at θ = π, while for N F = 1, 2, 3 we find phase transitions at fractional values of π.

Extended Supersymmetry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Three-Receiver Quantum Broadcast Channels: Classical Communication with Quantum Non-unique Decoding

In network communication, it is common in broadcasting scenarios for there to exist a hierarchy among receivers based on information they decode due, for example, to different physical conditions or premium subscriptions. This hierarchy may result in varied information quality, such as higher-quality video for certain receivers. This is modeled mathematically as a degraded message set, indicating a hierarchy between messages to be decoded by different receivers, where the default quality corresponds to a common message intended for all receivers, a higher quality is represented by a message for a smaller subset of receivers, and so forth. We extend these considerations to quantum communication, exploring three-receiver quantum broadcast channels with two- and three-degraded message sets. Our technical tool involves employing quantum non-unique decoding, a technique we develop by utilizing the simultaneous pinching method. Here, we construct one-shot codes for various scenarios and find achievable rate regions relying on various quantum Rényi mutual information error exponents. Our investigation includes a comprehensive study of pinching across tensor product spaces, presenting our findings as the asymptotic counterpart to our one-shot codes. By employing the non-unique decoding, we also establish a simpler proof to Marton’s inner bound for two-receiver quantum broadcast channels without the need for more involved techniques. Additionally, we derive no-go results and demonstrate their tightness in special cases.

Salek, Farzin [Technical University of Munich (Ger↗
DOE OSTI2022

Delaunay walk for fast nearest neighbor: accelerating correspondence matching for ICP

Point set registration algorithms such as Iterative Closest Point (ICP) are commonly utilized in time-constrained environments like robotics. Finding the nearest neighbor of a point in a reference 3D point set is a common operation in ICP and frequently consumes at least 90% of the computation time. We introduce a novel approach to performing the distance-based nearest neighbor step based on Delaunay triangulation. This greedy algorithm finds the nearest neighbor of a query point by traversing the edges of the Delaunay triangulation created from a reference 3D point set. Our work integrates the Delaunay traversal into the correspondences search of ICP and exploits the iterative aspect of ICP by caching previous correspondences to expedite each iteration. An algorithmic analysis and comparison is conducted showing an order of magnitude speedup for both serial and vector processor implementation.

3d point cloud processing↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unraveling the Hsp70-ROS-autophagy axis in pentachlorophenol-challenged lung and liver epithelial cells

Pentachlorophenol (PCP) was extensively utilized as an organochlorine pesticide and wood preservative in the United States from the 1930s until the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) imposed restrictions due to concerns about its toxicity and potential carcinogenic properties. Although it is no longer widely used, PCP remains a concern due to its environmental persistence and potential for long-term health effects. Significant occupational and environmental exposures have likely occurred, with the health and economic costs of PCP exposure potentially being substantial given its known toxicity. Notably, PCP exhibits rapid absorption through both the skin and respiratory system and has been shown to cause hepatotoxicity, developmental toxicity, immunotoxicity, irritation, and carcinogenicity in laboratory animal studies. PCP exposure induces oxidative stress, a key mechanism underlying its inflammatory and toxic effects, which can activate cellular stress responses including upregulation of heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70). Previous studies in lung and liver epithelial cells have shown that Hsp70 and oxidative stress play pivotal roles in triggering autophagy. This study establishes the critical role of the Hsp70-reactive oxygen species (ROS)-autophagy axis in regulating cellular responses to PCP exposure in human alveolar (A549) and liver carcinoma (HepG2) epithelial cells. Our research elucidated the molecular mechanisms underlying PCP's cellular effects, demonstrating that its exposure resulted in increased expression of autophagy-related proteins (Beclin-1, LC3B, ATG12, and ATG16), subunits of NADPH oxidase (NCF-1, NCF-2, NOX2, and Rac), and antioxidant proteins (SOD and GPx) in both lung and liver cell types. Notably, PCP augmented the interaction between Hsp70 and the autophagy regulator Beclin-1. Pretreatment with the ROS inhibitor N-acetylcysteine or Hsp70 knockdown markedly reversed PCP-induced responses. Our in-silico protein–protein docking analysis and molecular dynamics simulation studies revealed enhanced interactions and/or stable confirmations maintained throughout the simulations for TLR4-Hsp70 and Hsp70-Beclin-1 complexes in the presence of PCP. These findings provide a strong foundation for future studies, employing in vivo experimental models and human populations to identify promising targets for PCP-induced toxicity and cellular injury. As a result, these findings may have far-reaching implications for public health and environmental policy, ultimately leading to the identification of biomarkers and the development of more effective interventions for environmentally induced toxicity and diseases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncovering the mechanism of selective stabilization of high-energy diastereoisomers via inclusion

Abstract Supramolecular systems may be used to stabilize otherwise unstable isomers to find alternative synthetic pathways. It has been reported that cucurbit[8]uril can stabilize trans -I and trans -II Cu $$^{{\textrm{II}}}$$ II cyclam, whereas trans -III is the only non-substituted trans Cu $$^{{\textrm{II}}}$$ II cyclam diastereoisomer found outside of the host molecule experimentally. Quantum chemistry methods can provide valuable insight into the intermolecular interactions involved in these inclusion complexes. All five possible trans diastereoisomers of Cu $$^{{\textrm{II}}}$$ II cyclam were studied within the host molecule to calculate the interaction energy and free energy of association for each complex. The relative free energies of the five free cyclams confirm that trans -I and trans -II are the most energetically accessible diastereoisomers from the initial trans -III starting point. Energy decomposition analysis was used to identify the attractive and repulsive interactions between cyclam and cucurbit[8]uril and showed that trans -II encounters repulsive forces almost three times greater than trans -I, which may explain the 7:3 ratio of trans -I to trans -II within cucurbit[8]uril that occurs experimentally. Optimized complex geometries with trans -III, IV, and V show that the cyclams protrude out of cucurbit[8]uril, whereas trans -I and trans -II become more encapsulated and elongate the host, suggesting that the position of the cyclam is extremely important when forming non-covalent interactions. Our results agree with the experimental findings and provide greater insight into why the most stable isolated cyclam diastereoisomer, trans -III, does not form a complex.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Minimal-Area Metrics on the Swiss Cross and Punctured Torus

The closed string theory minimal-area problem asks for the conformal metric of least area on a Riemann surface with the condition that all non-contractible closed curves have length greater than or equal to an arbitrary constant that can be set to one. Through every point in such a metric there is a geodesic that saturates the length condition, and the saturating geodesics in a given homotopy class form a band. The extremal metric is unknown when bands of geodesics cross, as it happens for surfaces of non-zero genus. Here, we use recently proposed convex programs to numerically find the minimal-area metric on the square torus with a square boundary, for various sizes of the boundary. For large enough boundary the problem is equivalent to the “Swiss cross” challenge posed by Strebel. We find that the metric is positively curved in the two-band region and flat in the single-band regions. For small boundary the metric develops a third band of geodesics wrapping around it, and has both regions of positive and of negative curvature. This surface can be completed to provide the minimal-area metric on a once-punctured torus, representing a closed-string tadpole diagram.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spectral Bounds on Hyperbolic 3-Manifolds: Associativity and the Trace Formula

We constrain the low-energy spectra of Laplace operators on closed hyperbolic manifolds and orbifolds in three dimensions, including the standard Laplace--Beltrami operator on functions and the Laplacian on powers of the cotangent bundle. Our approach employs linear programming techniques to derive rigorous bounds by leveraging two types of spectral identities. The first type, inspired by the conformal bootstrap, arises from the consistency of the spectral decomposition of the product of Laplace eigensections, and involves the Laplacian spectra as well as integrals of triple products of eigensections. We formulate these conditions in the language of representation theory of PSL 2 (C) and use them to prove upper bounds on the first and second Laplacian eigenvalues. The second type of spectral identities follows from the Selberg trace formula. We use them to find upper bounds on the spectral gap of the Laplace--Beltrami operator on hyperbolic 3-orbifolds, as well as on the systole length of hyperbolic 3-manifolds, as a function of the volume. Further, we prove that the spectral gap λ 1 of the Laplace--Beltrami operator on all closed hyperbolic 3-manifolds satisfies λ 1 < 47.32. Along the way, we use the trace formula to estimate the low-energy spectra of a large set of example orbifolds and compare them with our general bounds, finding that the bounds are nearly sharp in several cases.

Bonifacio, James [University of Mississippi, MS (U↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lattice dynamics, sound velocities, and atomic environments of szomolnokite at high pressure

Complex mixtures of sulfates, silicates, and ice have been observed in a variety of planetary environments on Earth, Mars and the icy satellites of the solar system. Characterizing the properties of the corresponding compositional endmembers is important for understanding the interiors of a range of planetary bodies in which these phases are observed. To measure the electronic and vibrational properties of the pure ferrous iron endmember of the kieserite group, szomolnokite, (FeSO 4 ∙H 2 O), we have performed synchrotron 57 Fe nuclear resonant inelastic and forward scattering experiments in the diamond-anvil cell up to 14.5 GPa. This pressure range covers depths within Earth’s interior relevant to sulfur cycling in subduction zones and the range of pressures expected within icy satellite interiors. We find evidence of crystal lattice softening, changes in elastic properties, and changes in the electric field gradients of iron atoms associated with two structural transitions occurring within the experimental pressure range. Here we apply these findings to icy satellite interiors, including discussion of elastic properties, modeling of ice-sulfate aggregates, and implications for tidal observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Aqueous phosphate detection using Eu(acac) 3

Currently, the majority of phosphate-sensitive phosphors reported in literature are metal-based complexes that require complicated and expensive synthesis to prepare. Here, in this study, we investigate the phosphate detecting capabilities of an inexpensive off-the-shelf phosphor: Eu(acac) 3 . We characterize its phosphate sensitivity as a function of sensor concentration and find that the quenching coefficient is inversely proportional to sensor concentration. This results in the limit-of-detection scaling linearly with sensor concentration. We determine its concentration-independent sensitivity to be 1.558 ± 0.012, which results in our lowest sensor concentration (44 μM) having a limit-of-detection of 3.39 ± 0.68 μM. We also find that for phosphate concentrations less than the sensor concentration, the fluorescence intensity ratio behaves linearly, but transitions to a non-linear functionality as the phosphate concentration exceeds the sensor concentration.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward engineering lattice structures with the material point method (MPM)

This study examines the potential of two variants of the material point method—the generalized interpolation material point (GIMP) and dual domain material point (DDMP) methods—in developing a robust computational framework for engineering lattice structures under different loading conditions. The study begins with assessing the ability of the two methods in predicting elastic buckling phenomena using column geometries with and without initial geometric imperfections. The results indicate that both methods effectively capture buckling phenomena when initial geometric imperfections are introduced. After this verification step, we create several models of tetrahedral lattice structures with varying strut diameter and orientation and subject them to quasi-static loading. We then validate the numerical results using laboratory test results. The results show that, while both methods accurately predict load–displacement curves in the pre-buckling regime, their predictive capabilities diminish in the post-buckling regime. Through visual comparison between the numerical and experimental deformed shapes, it appears that the discrepancies between model and experimental results are attributed to initial geometric imperfections in the lattices that occurred during 3D printing. We then establish a second set of lattice models where different types of initial geometric imperfections are considered. The results from these models show that imperfections have a negligible influence in the pre-buckling regime but affect the behavior considerably in the post-buckling regime. As a final step in this work, we subject the lattice models to impact loading and employ hypothetical soft and stiff materials. These results show that the lattice stiffness, which depends on material stiffness, strut diameter, and orientation, significantly influences the ability of a lattice structure to resist impact. In particular, we find that a stiffer lattice (i.e., one made with a stiff material and thicker struts) is capable of absorbing more energy than a softer one during impact. Although material nonlinearities, inelasticity, and detailed contact formulations are not considered in this study, the findings obtained herein lay the groundwork for engineering lattice structures under extreme loading conditions through a simulation-driven framework based on particle-based methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climatology of diablo winds in Northern California and their relationships with large-scale climate variabilities

The most destructive wildfires recently in Northern California have been linked to the occurrences of Diablo Winds (DWs). This study investigates the climatology of DWs during September–December 1979–2018, and their relationships with various climate modes using observations and two high-resolution reanalysis datasets. Our finding shows that DWs do not have a long-term trend in terms of the annual total number, total duration, and associated maximum wind speeds of DWs over the past 4 decades. However, their associated minimum relative humidity (RH) has decreased significantly, especially in October, which suggests that the dryness during DWs has become more severe with time, possibly leading to an increased chance of fires, and their destructive potential. We also find that the annual total number and duration of DWs have exhibited an quasi-periodic variation, with intervals ranging from 2 to 4 years. The periodic variability of DWs might be attributed to the teleconnections between DWs and climate oscillations, specifically the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), through their modulation of pressure systems near California and the location of the Pacific jet stream. It is suggested that when La Niña and the QBO westerly phases co-occur in the spring, DWs in the following fall and winter tend to occur more frequently, and are associated with more intense high winds and dryness as compared to other springtime QBO and ENSO phases. This relationship may be used to predict the seasonal outlook of DWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations

The characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over five TC basins lying within four Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains are examined for present and future climate conditions using a new ensemble of simulations completed as part of the CORDEX-CORE initiative with the regional climate model RegCM4. The simulations are conducted at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing and are driven by three CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The RegCM4 captures most features of the observed TC climatology, except for the TC intensity, which is thus statistically adjusted using a bias correction procedure to account for the effect of the coarse model resolution. The RegCM4 exhibits an improved simulation of several TC statistics compared to the driving GCMs, over most basins analyzed. In future climate conditions we find significant increases in TC frequency over the North Indian Ocean, the Northwest Pacific and Eastern Pacific regions, which are consistent with an increase in mid-tropospheric relative humidity. The North Atlantic and Australasia regions show a decrease in TC frequency, mostly associated with an increase in wind shear. We also find a consistent increase in future storm rainfall rates associated with TCs and in the frequency of the most intense TCs over most domains. Finally, our study shows robust responses often, but not always, in line with previous studies, still implying the presence of significant uncertainties in the projection of TC characteristics, which need to be addressed using large ensembles of simulations with high-resolution models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards understanding the robust strengthening of ENSO and more frequent extreme El Niño events in CMIP6 global warming simulations

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has profound impacts on weather patterns across the globe, yet there is no consensus on its response to global warming. Several modelling studies find a stronger ENSO in global warming scenarios, while other studies suggest ENSO weakening. Using a broad range of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and four types of warming experiments, here we show that the majority of the models predict a stronger ENSO by century-end in Shared Social Pathway (SSP) experiments, and in idealized 1pctCO 2 and abrupt 4xCO 2 experiments. Several models, however, do predict no change or ENSO weakening, especially in the idealized experiments. Critically, the strongest forcing (abrupt-4xCO 2 ) does not induce the strongest ENSO response, while differences between the models are much greater than those between warming scenarios. For the long-term response (over 1000 years) the models disagree even on the sign of change. Furthermore, changes in ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability are only modestly correlated with the tropical Pacific mean state change. The highest correlation for ENSO SST amplitude is found with the mean zonal SST gradient in the SSP5-8.5 experiment (R = –0.58). In contrast, changes in ENSO rainfall variability correlate well with changes in the mean state, as well as with changes in ENSO SST variability. When evaluating the Bjerknes Stability Index for a subset of models, we find that it is not a reliable predictor of ENSO strengthening, as this index tends to predict greater stability with warming. We argue that the enhanced ENSO stability is offset by increases in atmospheric noise or/and potential nonlinear effects. However, a robust inter-model mechanism that can explain a stronger ENSO simulated with global warming is still lacking. Therefore, caution should be exercised when considering ENSO changes based on a single model or warming scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A minor respiratory process with major global implications: is atmospheric methane oxidation in tree stems driven by stem respiration rather than microbial methanotrophy?

Tree stem surfaces are widely recognized as sites of carbon dioxide (CO₂) efflux and oxygen (O₂) influx, reflecting the dynamics of aerobic respiration of photosynthate substrates, such as sugars, delivered via the phloem. Stems are also largely considered passive conduits for methane (CH₄) produced in anoxic soils via microbial methanogenesis, where CH₄ is thought to be transported upward through the transpiration stream and/or diffusion and emitted through stem surfaces and the canopy. However, recent observations from dynamic stem chambers suggest that stems may also act as active sinks for atmospheric CH₄. Despite these findings, the extent and drivers of stem CH₄ consumption remain poorly characterized across biomes, species, and environmental gradients, and its quantitative relationship to stem respiration has not been established. Moreover, previous studies captured only snapshot fluxes, leaving diurnal patterns of CH₄ exchange uncharacterized. Here, we address these limitations by combining real-time measurements of stem CH₄ and O₂ uptake under ambient conditions in a California cherry tree, using a dynamic stem gas exchange system with three chambers receiving a continuous flow of ambient air and automated chamber and reference air sampling every 10 min. Our results confirm that stems of upland trees can actively consume both atmospheric CH₄ and O₂, but with decreasing temperature sensitivity as daily temperatures increase. Early mornings were marked by rapid influxes of both gases, followed by declining uptake as temperatures rose further. Methane uptake was tightly coupled with O₂ influx and represented a minor (0.012% ± 0.002%) fraction of stem respiratory activity, as determined by concurrent O₂ uptake. These findings suggest that while atmospheric CH₄ oxidation is a minor respiratory process in stems, it is strongly linked with stem physiological activity. This challenges the current assumption that terrestrial CH₄ uptake is driven solely by microbial methanotrophy and raises the possibility that living stem tissues may contribute to CH₄ oxidation through an as-yet-unidentified plant-based mechanism.

Atmospheric greenhouse gases↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multistage distributionally robust mixed-integer programming with decision-dependent moment-based ambiguity sets

We study multistage distributionally robust mixed-integer programs under endogenous uncertainty, where the probability distribution of stage-wise uncertainty depends on the decisions made in previous stages. We first consider two ambiguity sets defined by decision-dependent bounds on the first and second moments of uncertain parameters and by mean and covariance matrix that exactly match decision-dependent empirical ones, respectively. For both sets, we show that the subproblem in each stage can be recast as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP). Moreover, we extend the general moment-based ambiguity set in to the multistage decision-dependent setting, and derive mixed-integer semidefinite programming (MISDP) reformulations of stage-wise subproblems. We develop methods for attaining lower and upper bounds of the optimal objective value of the multistage MISDPs, and approximate them using a series of MILPs. We deploy the Stochastic Dual Dynamic integer Programming (SDDiP) method for solving the problem under the three ambiguity sets with risk-neutral or risk-averse objective functions, and conduct numerical studies on multistage facility-location instances having diverse sizes under different parameter and uncertainty settings. Furthermore, our results show that the SDDiP quickly finds optimal solutions for moderate-sized instances under the first two ambiguity sets, and also finds good approximate bounds for the multistage MISDPs derived under the third ambiguity set. We also demonstrate the efficacy of incorporating decision-dependent distributional ambiguity in multistage decision-making processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

MgO(111) Nanocatalyst for Biomass Conversion: A Study of Carbon Coating Effects on Catalyst Faceting and Performance

Solid base metal oxide catalysts such as MgO offer utility in a wide variety of syntheses from pharmaceuticals to fuels. The (111) facet of MgO shows enhanced, unique properties relative to the other facets. Carbon coatings have emerged as a promising modification to impart metal oxide catalyst stability. Here, we report the synthesis, characterization, and catalytic properties of commercial MgO, MgO(111), and carbon coated derivatives thereof for 2-pentanone condensation. The dimer and trimer products of this reaction can be used as precursors for biofuels upon oxygen removal and thus have relevance in environmental sustainability. Additionally, MgO(111) maintained impressive selectivity towards the dimer product after carbon coating, whereas the other catalysts experienced a decrease in conversion and selectivity as a consequence of the carbon coating. Our findings highlight the catalytic efficacy of MgO(111), provide insight into carbon coating for catalyst stability, and pave the way for continued mechanistic investigations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attributable human-induced changes in the magnitude of flooding in the Houston, Texas region during Hurricane Harvey

Abstract The human influence on precipitation during tropical cyclones due to the global warming is now well documented in the literature. Several studies have found increases in Hurricane Harvey’s total precipitation over the Greater Houston area ranging from the Clausius-Clapeyron limit of 7% to as much as 38% locally. Here we use a hydraulic model to translate these attribution statements about precipitation to statements about the resultant flooding and associated damages. We find that while the attributable increase in the total volume of flood waters is the same as the attributable increase in precipitation, the attributable increase in the total area of the flood is less. However, we also find that in the most heavily flooded parts of Houston, the local attributable increases in flood area and volume are substantially larger than the increase in total precipitation. The results of this storyline attribution analysis of the Houston flood area are used to make an intuitive best estimate of the cost of Hurricane Harvey attributable to anthropogenic global warming as thirteen billion US dollars.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗