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At least 1,333 records · Page 74

Inference of Rock Flow and Mechanical Properties from Injection-Induced Microseismic Events During Geologic CO 2 Storage

Monitoring microseismic activities during CO 2 injection into geologic formations is important for ensuring the safety of the storage operations. The resulting data provide insight into the response of the storage formation to CO 2 injection and can be used to infer the underlying rock flow and mechanical properties. In this paper, assimilation of microseismic data is performed for dynamic characterization of the storage formation by using a stochastic simulation model to forecast the microseismic response of a geologic formation during CO 2 injection. Two modeling approaches are adopted to predict the space-time distribution of the injection-induced microseismicity. The first model is based on pore pressure relaxation assumption, while the second model uses coupled flow and geomechanics simulation to establish the complex physical relation between the storage formation properties and the corresponding microseismic responses during CO 2 injection. The stochastic predictive models in each case are used in ensemble data assimilation frameworks to estimate rock properties from the observed microseismic data. Two data assimilation methods are considered: (i) a new ensemble-based stochastic point process filter (EnPPF) that can directly integrate discrete microseismic events, and (ii) a variant of ensemble smoother, known as the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA), which requires continuous representation of microseismic events for assimilation. The two methods are successfully applied to a geologically realistic model of the Farnsworth Field in Texas, with complex geologic flow units and interacting fault systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Developing and Evaluating Metrics for Demand Flexibility in Buildings: Comparing Simulations and Field Data

Building demand flexibility (DF) has attracted significant attention in recent years among researchers, technology developers and control companies, aggregators, utilities, and many others. There are numerous challenges with today’s electricity systems such as managing peak demand capacity and integrating variable renewables into the grid. Flexible building loads can provide various grid services to help reduce electricity costs, smooth out renewables intermittency and balance supply and demand. Recognizing this, the US DOE is leading the Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB) initiative which includes research to evaluate the potential, availability and timing of flexible loads. In this paper we present load shed metrics for three building types – medium office, large office and retail store – and compare prototype simulation results with measured data from 12 actual buildings that participated in hot summertime utility demand response (DR) events. The DR strategies included varying zone temperature and reducing light levels. The magnitude of a key DF metric, “demand decrease intensity” (or “shed intensity”) (W/ft2), between the simulation results and field data are similar (14-32% differences) for both mean and median values, though the field data show much larger variation among DR events. The coefficient p-values from linear regression model tests showed that outside air temperature is a significant variable for the whole building shed intensity when the resetting zone temperature strategy is deployed. These findings support the concept of using prototype building simulation to estimate building DF and expanding future simulation research to additional building types and climate zones.

Liu, Jingjing↗

An improved daily standardized precipitation index dataset for mainland China from 1961 to 2018

The standardized precipitation index (SPI), one of the most commonly used drought indicators, is widely used in the research areas of drought analysis and drought prediction in different fields such as meteorology, agriculture, and hydrology. However, its main disadvantage is the relatively coarse time resolution of one month. To improve the time resolution of SPI to identify flash droughts, we have refined the traditional SPI calculation method and developed a new multi-scale daily SPI dataset based on data from 484 meteorological stations in mainland China from 1961 to 2018. SPI data from three different sites (located in Henan, Yunnan, and Fujian Provinces) at the three-month timescale were analyzed by comparing with historically recorded drought events. We found that the new multi-scale daily SPI can effectively capture drought events in different periods and locations and identify the specific start and end times of drought events. In short, our SPI dataset appears reasonable and capable of facilitating drought research in different fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FAST Observations of Acceleration Processes in the Cusp--Evidence for Parallel Electric Fields

The existence of precipitating keV ions in the Earth's cusp originating at the magnetosheath provide unique means to test our understanding of particle acceleration and parallel electric fields in the lower altitude acceleration region. On numerous occasions, the FAST (The Fast Auroral Snapshot) spacecraft has encountered the Earth's cusp regions near its apogee of 4175 km which are characterized by their signatures of dispersed keV ion injections. The FAST instruments also reveal a complex microphysics inherent to many, but not all, of the cusp regions encountered by the spacecraft, that include upgoing ion beams and conics, inverted-V electrons, upgoing electron beams, and spikey DC-coupled electric fields and plasma waves. Detailed inspection of the FAST data often show clear modulation of the precipitating magnetosheath ions that indicate that they are affected by local electric potentials. For example, the magnetosheath ion precipitation is sometimes abruptly shut off precisely in regions where downgoing localized inverted-V electrons are observed. Such observations support the existence of a localized process, such as parallel electric fields, above the spacecraft which accelerate the electrons downward and consequently impede the precipitating ion precipitation. Other acceleration events in the cusp are sometimes organized with an apparent cellular structure that suggests Alfven waves or other large-scale phenomena are controlling the localized potentials. We examine several cusp encounters by the FAST satellite where the modulation of energetic session on acceleration particle populations reveals evidence of localized acceleration, most likely by parallel electric fields.

Pfaff, R. F.. Jr.↗

Double vision: Remote sensing of a flux transfer event with ISEE 1 and 2

A flux transfer event recorded by the International Sun-Earth Explorers (ISEE) 1 and 2 spacecraft in the northern hemisphere near local noon is examined using analysis techniques developed recently for determination from single satellite magnetometer data of the orientation and cross-sectional shape of a two-dimensional disturbance moving along the magnetopause. The analysis is performed independently on the magnetic field data recorded by each satellite, enabling us to check the consistency of the results and thus to benchmark the method. The analysis is also extended to utilize the dual magnetometer measurements for determination of the event speed and size (which for a single spacecraft requires use of three-dimensional plasma velocity data to obtain a deHoffmann-Teller frame velocity) and for accommodating acceleration of the magnetopause normal to itself, which results in a curved spacecraft trajectory in the frame of reference moving with the disturbance. The analysis of the disturbance reveals that while its overall size is about 34,000 km in a direction parallel to the magnetopause but perpendicular to the event axis, the actual size of the bulge causing the field disturbance may have been as small as 9000 km with a dimension perpendicular to the magnetopause of the order of 1200 km. The bulge is found to be traveling at a speed of about 140 km/s toward the northern dawn quadrant of the dayside magnetopause. While plasma data from ISEE 2 provides evidence of plasma jetting, which suggests the event may be associated with reconnection, the orientation of the flux tube axis obtained from analysis is significantly different from the expected reconnection line direction. A discussion of possible interpretations of this bulge orientation and motion is provided.

Walthour, D. W.↗

Event Screening Methods for the Eastern Interconnection Situational Awareness and Monitoring System (ESAMS)

The Eastern Interconnection Situational Awareness and Monitoring System (ESAMS) is a tool developed to explore the applications and advantages of sharing phasor measurement unit (PMU) data among operating entities. An initial conclusion from testing was that detected events required further screening before being reported to ensure that events would be of interest to system operators. The methods described in this report were integrated into ESAMS to meet this need. First, an event is screened for whether the change in voltage angle measurements indicates that the detected disturbance is sufficiently large. Next, an event is classified to determine if it was related to a loss of generation. Finally, a neural network is used to determine if the system’s response to the disturbance is normal or abnormal. These methods were tested with one month of field-measured PMU data. Results indicate that the additional information provided by these additional screening tools will improve selection of events for inclusion in the daily event reports automatically generated by ESAMS.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electrochemical grand potential-based phase-field simulation of electric field-assisted sintering

Here, an electrochemical grand potential functional was proposed to describe the sintering of an ionic ceramic green body. The resultant phase-field description enables simulation of the consolidation of an arbitrary number of granular particles and their interactions with the surrounding void phase. The model includes the effects of charged vacancies and the associated interactions between internal and applied electric fields. Defect segregation to grain boundaries is also accounted for, as well as enhanced interfacial defect mobilities. The model was parameterized for Y 2 O 3 . Simulations of two-particle systems showed that the applied electric field had an increasingly important impact on neck growth as particle size increased. A sudden rapid increase in temperature occurred for larger field strengths, which has been reported to be correlated to the onset of a flash event in flash sintering. Simulations of many particles showed that internal heat generation by Joule heating was localized at particle–particle contacts (grain boundaries), even though their conductivities were lower than nearby internal particle-void interfaces. A percolative path for ionic charge across the green body and the ceramic sintered solid was thus defined, accelerating the Joule heating process as the porosity of the green body is removed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Xilinx Virtex-5QV (V5QV) Independent SEU Data

This is an independent study to determine the single event destructive and transient susceptibility of the Xilinx Virtex-5QV (SIRF) device. A framework for evaluating complex digital systems targeted for harsh radiation environments such as space is presented.

Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA)↗

Mass ejections from the solar corona into interplanetary space

Results obtained from analysis of Skylab coronagraph images of mass ejections from the solar corona are reviewed which demonstrate the importance of mass-ejection coronal transients to the interplanetary medium and which support the belief that magnetic forces are the primary mechanism driving mass ejections from the corona. Observations of 13 large ejection events are examined which indicate that coronal mass ejections contribute a nonnegligible fraction of the mass flux from the sun, especially toward the heliographic equator near the maximum of a solar activity cycle. It is shown that observed loop-shaped transients were associated with regions of increased magnetic field and with separations of unipolar field regions, that the forces driving the transients outward acted to great heights long after the onsets of the events, and that the behavior of the ejecta was magnetically controlled. It is concluded that mass ejections from the corona contributed at least 3% of the mass flux from the sun during the Skylab era and that the most common loop-shaped ejections are magnetically driven through the corona.

Hildner, E.↗

A search for parallel electric fields by observing secondary electrons and photoelectrons in the low-altitude auroral zone

Model calculations are performed demonstrating the effect of weak parallel electric fields on the differential spectra of the low-energy electrons observed in the inverted-V electron precipitation events in the topside ionosphere. A comparison of the altitude dependence of the observed spectra with the model calculations shows that there can be, on average, no more than a 2-V potential drop between the altitudes of 400 and 900 km, corresponding to a distributed parallel dc electric field of less than 4 microV/m under the inverted-V electron precipitation regions. Statistical results are presented on the spectral dependence of secondary electrons on the inverted-V primary beam parameters.

Fung, Shing F.↗

A Major Solar Eruptive Event in July 2012: Defining Extreme Space Weather Scenarios

A key goal for space weather studies is to define severe and extreme conditions that might plausibly afflict human technology. On 23 July 2012, solar active region 1520 (approx. 141 deg W heliographic longitude) gave rise to a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) with an initial speed that was determined to be 2500+/-500 km/s. The eruption was directed away from Earth toward 125 deg W longitude. STEREO-A sensors detected the CME arrival only about 19 h later and made in situ measurements of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field. In this paper, we address the question of what would have happened if this powerful interplanetary event had been Earthward directed. Using a well-proven geomagnetic storm forecast model, we find that the 23-24 July event would certainly have produced a geomagnetic storm that was comparable to the largest events of the twentieth century (Dst approx. - 500 nT). Using plausible assumptions about seasonal and time-of-day orientation of the Earth's magnetic dipole, the most extreme modeled value of storm-time disturbance would have been Dst= - 1182 nT. This is considerably larger than estimates for the famous Carrington storm of 1859. This finding has far reaching implications because it demonstrates that extreme space weather conditions such as those during March of 1989 or September of 1859 can happen even during a modest solar activity cycle such as the one presently underway. We argue that this extreme event should immediately be employed by the space weather community to model severe space weather effects on technological systems such as the electric power grid.

solar longitude↗

Energy buildup in sheared force-free magnetic fields

Photospheric displacement of the footpoints of solar magnetic field lines results in shearing and twisting of the field, and consequently in the buildup of electric currents and magnetic free energy in the corona. The sudden release of this free energy may be the origin of eruptive events like coronal mass ejections, prominence eruptions, and flares. An important question is whether such an energy release may be accompanied by the opening of magnetic field lines that were previously closed, for such open field lines can provide a route for matter frozen into the field to escape the sun altogether. This paper presents the results of numerical calculations showing that opening of the magnetic field is permitted energetically, in that it is possible to build up more free energy in a sheared, closed, force-free magnetic field than is in a related magnetic configuration having both closed and open field lines. Whether or not the closed force-free field attains enough energy to become partially open depends on the form of the shear profile; the results presented compare the energy buildup for different shear profiles. Implications for solar activity are discussed briefly.

Wolfson, Richard↗

Geometric GNNs for charged particle tracking at GlueX

Nuclear physics experiments are aimed at uncovering the fundamental building blocks of matter. The experiments involve high-energy collisions that produce complex events with many particle trajectories. Tracking charged particles resulting from collisions in the presence of a strong magnetic field is critical to enable the reconstruction of particle trajectories and precise determination of interactions. It is traditionally achieved through combinatorial approaches that scale worse than linearly as the number of hits grows. Since particle hit data naturally form a point cloud and can be structured as graphs, graph neural networks (GNNs) emerge as an intuitive and effective choice for this task. In this study, we evaluate the GNN model for track finding on the data from the GlueX experiment at Jefferson Lab. We use simulation data to train the model and test on both simulation and real GlueX measurements. We demonstrate that GNN-based track finding outperforms the currently used traditional method at GlueX in terms of segment-based efficiency at a fixed purity while providing faster inferences. We show that the GNN model can achieve significant speedup by processing multiple events in batches, which exploits the parallel computation capability of graphical processing units (GPUs). Finally, we compare the GNN implementation on GPU and field-programmable gate array and describe the trade-off.

batched GNN pipeline↗

An ASKAP Search for a Radio Counterpart to the First High-significance Neutron Star–Black Hole Merger LIGO/Virgo S190814bv

We present results from a search for a radio transient associated with the LIGO/Virgo source S190814bv, a likely neutron star–black hole (NSBH) merger, with the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder. We imaged a 30 deg 2 field at ΔT = 2, 9, and 33 days post-merger at a frequency of 944 MHz, comparing them to reference images from the Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey observed 110 days prior to the event. Each epoch of our observations covers 89% of the LIGO/Virgo localization region. We conducted an untargeted search for radio transients in this field, resulting in 21 candidates. For one of these, AT2019osy, we performed multiwavelength follow-up and ultimately ruled out the association with S190814bv. All other candidates are likely unrelated variables, but we cannot conclusively rule them out. We discuss our results in the context of model predictions for radio emission from NSBH mergers and place constrains on the circum-merger density and inclination angle of the merger. This survey is simultaneously the first large-scale radio follow-up of an NSBH merger, and the most sensitive widefield radio transients search to-date.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Study of cosmogenic activation above ground for the DarkSide-20k experiment

The activation of materials due to exposure to cosmic rays may become an important background source for experiments investigating rare event phenomena. DarkSide-20k, currently under construction at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso, is a direct detection experiment for galactic dark matter particles, using a two-phase liquid-argon Time Projection Chamber (TPC) filled with 49.7 tonnes (active mass) of Underground Argon (UAr) depleted in 39 Ar. Despite the outstanding capability of discriminating γ / β background in argon TPCs, this background must be considered because of induced dead time or accidental coincidences mimicking dark-matter signals and it is relevant for low-threshold electron-counting measurements. Here, the cosmogenic activity of relevant long-lived radioisotopes induced in the experiment has been estimated to set requirements and procedures during preparation of the experiment and to check that it is not dominant over primordial radioactivity; particular attention has been paid to the activation of the 120 t of UAr used in DarkSide-20k. Expected exposures above ground and production rates, either measured or calculated, have been considered in detail. From the simulated counting rates in the detector due to cosmogenic isotopes, it is concluded that activation in copper and stainless steel is not problematic. The activity of 39 Ar induced during extraction, purification and transport on surface is evaluated to be 2.8% of the activity measured in UAr by DarkSide-50 experiment, which used the same underground source, and thus considered acceptable. Other isotopes in the UAr such as 37 Ar and 3 H are shown not to be relevant due to short half-life and assumed purification methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

North American Extreme Precipitation Events and Related Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns: a Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

This paper surveys the current state of knowledge regarding Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than one week) extreme precipitation events over North America. In contrast to teleconnections, which are typically defined based on the characteristic spatial variations of a meteorological field or on the remote circulation response to a known forcing, LSMPs are defined relative to the occurrence of a specific phenomenon—here, extreme precipitation—and with an emphasis on the synoptic scales that have a primary influence in individual events, have medium-range weather predictability, and are well-resolved in both weather and climate models. For the LSMP relationship with extreme precipitation, we consider the previous literature with respect to definitions and data, dynamical mechanisms, model representation, and climate change trends. There is considerable uncertainty in identifying extremes based on existing observational precipitation data and some limitations in analyzing the associated LSMPs in reanalysis data. Many different definitions of “extreme” are in use, making it difficult to directly compare different studies. Dynamically, several types of meteorological systems—extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and mesohighs—and several mechanisms—fronts, atmospheric rivers, and orographic ascent—have been shown to be important aspects of extreme precipitation LSMPs. The extreme precipitation is often realized through mesoscale processes organized, enhanced, or triggered by the LSMP. Understanding of model representation, trends, and projections for LSMPs is at an early stage, although some 4 promising analysis techniques have been identified and the LSMP perspective is useful for evaluating model dynamics.

Mathew Barlow↗

Context and mitigation of lost circulation during geothermal drilling in diverse geologic settings

Lost circulation is one of the most common and expensive problems facing geothermal energy development, representing up to 30% of drilling costs. We examined drilling records from four geothermal fields—McGinness Hills in central Nevada, Don A. Campbell and Steamboat Hills in western Nevada, and Puna Geothermal Venture on the Big Island of Hawai'i— to identify geologies most prone to lost circulation, as well as common mitigation strategies. Depths of lost circulation events varied, but their frequency often increased in the production interval. Lost circulation commonly occurred near fault intersections, and heavily faulted fields like McGinness Hills and Don A. Campbell showed secondary mineralization within approximately 100 m (328 ft) or less of where circulation was lost. Lost circulation mitigation strategies included using locally available materials (e.g., cotton seed hulls) as well as more expensive proprietary lost circulation materials, cement plugs above the reservoir, and drilling blind with aerated, polymer-based mud in the production zone. Addressing lost circulation using a well thought out decision-making approach and materials above the reservoir will save time and cost, and provide needed well integrity. Mitigation often requires a series of steps, typically applied from perceived least expensive to most, and are dependent on the severity and location in the well where circulation was lost and availability of materials. Placing cement plugs can cure lost circulation events, however these plugs are often expensive, time-consuming, and may not be successful.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

EMIC Wave Energy Dissipation as a Source of O + Conics and Warm Plasma Cloak in the Earth's Inner Magnetosphere

This study focuses on a specific source of the O + conics and warm plasma cloak in the Earth's inner magnetosphere due to electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave energy dissipation. We analyze the EMIC wave event observed by Van Allen Probe-A in the early afternoon off equatorial magnetosphere on 18 November 2015, where the two dominant EMIC wave bands, He + -band and H + -band, were observed for ∼4 min. All the wave and plasma parameters, the DC magnetic field, and ion distributions needed for our analysis are taken from the Van Allen Probe-A observations during the event. The major results of our analysis are as follows. (a) The H + and He + heating by EMIC waves is negligible. (b) A strong heating of O + by the wave energy dissipation around the third, fifth, and sixth harmonics of the O + gyrofrequency is revealed, where the majority of energy dissipated goes into heating of O + with the energies ≲100 eV and pitch angles ∼20°–90°. The estimated energy deposition rate is ∼0.1–3.4 eV/s per O + , totaling to the deposition of ∼20–800 eV per O + during the event. (c) EMIC waves substantially contribute to the formation of O + conics and warm plasma cloak by heating the upgoing low-energy ionospheric O + because waves heat ions with the energies and pitch angles that are characteristic of conics and warm plasma cloak, and the energy deposition per O + is comparable to those characteristic energies.

Konstantin V. Gamayunov↗