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At least 1,333 records · Page 74
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Seismic tomography of compressional wave velocity and attenuation structure for Makushin Volcano, Alaska

Located in the central portion of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone, Makushin Volcano is among the most active volcanoes in the United States and has been classified as a very high threat by the National Volcano Early Warning System based on its eruptive history and proximity to the City of Unalaska and international air routes. In 2015, five standalone seismic stations and three mini seismic arrays of 15 stations each were deployed on Unalaska Island to supplement the Alaska Volcano Observatory permanent seismic network. This temporary array was operational for one year. Taking advantage of the increased azimuthal coverage and the array's increased earthquake detection capability, we developed body-wave Vp and Vp/Vs seismic images of the velocity structure beneath the volcano. Our results show a complex structure with the upper 4 km of the crust. The shallow high-Vp features possibly delineate remnant magma pathways or conduits. Low-Vp regions are found east of the caldera at approximately 4–8 km depth. This is in agreement with previous seismic tomographic work and InSAR-based geodetic models, which had identified this region as a possible long-term source of magma. A three-dimensional compressional wave attenuation model complemented the velocity models. In general, we observe regions of corresponding low P-wave velocity and high attenuation east of the summit caldera between 5 and 7 km depth, supporting the presence of a melt-rich zone. The absolute Vp values (5.5–6.0 km/s) in this region are consistent with the presence of a magma body with a mafic signature. Here, we suggest that a triggering mechanism that involves mafic injections into a more evolved shallow magma chamber is representative of the current magmatic system below the volcano, similarly to what petrological studies have inferred for past eruptions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

High frequency (4th order) sequence stratigraphy of Early Miocene deltaic shorelines, offshore Texas and Louisiana

Well logs and 3D seismic reflection data are integrated to image Lower Miocene depocenters of the upper Texas and westernmost Louisiana coastal and offshore areas. Although previously interpreted at a large scale (3rd order cycles), the detailed stratigraphy and depositional history of the early Miocene succession has not been fully developed. The upper lower Miocene interval from Robulus L (MFS10) to Amphistegina B (MFS9) has been further subdivided into five 4th order cycles (each 200 to 300 m thick) to provide finer scale stratigraphic detail and interpretation of depositional environments. Results of the finer scale correlations are presented in a series of sandstone percent maps. Overall, the maps display a strike-elongate (sub-parallel to the present day coastline) orientation for the sandstone bodies which thin to the southeast (basinward). Net sandstone thickness is relatively low in older cycles and increases in younger cycles suggesting an overall progradation of the deltaic system into the mapped area through time. Continued marine regression and southward movement of the shoreline are also confirmed by seismic amplitude 2 maps. After a major transgression associated with Robulus L deltaic progradation occurred under rising sea level conditions. Deltaic sediments prograded southward and sandstone brought to the upper Texas coast was distributed laterally by longshore currents to form strandplain coast lines. Maximum regression occurred during the interval MFS9_2 to MFS9_3 when a deltaic depocenter formed offshore Texas in east High Island area. However, sandstone thickness progressively decreased laterally to the east (offshore Louisiana) where more shale was present and marine processes reworked deltaic derived sandstones into shore parallel bars. There was a clear retreat of the shoreline during the youngest cycle marking the beginning of transgression associated with Amphistegina B . Detailed stratigraphic interpretation (at a 4th order scale) shows more variability in the dominant shoreline processes during early Miocene than previously thought. Recognition of sedimentary systems variability at a 4th order scale is critical for improved hydrocarbon exploration and in understanding potential future CO 2 storage in the area.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Initial design concepts for solid boron injection in ITER

As part of ITER’s consideration to change its first wall material from beryllium to tungsten, the ITER Organization has proposed studying the feasibility of real-time solid boron injection (SBI) into the plasma to coat the walls and divertor to supplement glow discharge boronization (GDB). Boron deposits getter oxygen and reduce sputtering of tungsten from plasma facing components (PFCs). Particularly in areas with significant plasma wall interactions, boron coatings are expected to be short-lived under high performance plasma conditions. The proposed SBI system aims to maintain boron layers in these areas to avoid excessive radiation from tungsten in the plasma as a risk mitigation to ensure ITER will be able to reach and sustain Q = 10 conditions. The system will be used sparingly, as redeposition of boron can lead to significant tritium retention, which must be minimized in ITER to comply with nuclear safety concerns. SBI is proposed to limit and precisely control the amount of boron injected in real-time during plasma operation. Here, some of the design requirements and initial concepts for an SBI system in ITER are presented based on previous results carried out with SBI systems on a number of tokamaks and stellarators around the world. Previous results using SBI systems installed by PPPL have injected boron particles from 5 µm–2 mm diameter at calibrated rates of 2–200 mg/s in real-time during plasma operation on AUG, DIII-D, EAST, KSTAR, LHD, TFTR, WEST, and W7-X, leading to improved wall conditions with reduced plasma impurity concentrations and radiated power and improved plasma performance. The boron is ionized in the plasma edge and then deposited on plasma-wetted surfaces. On AUG, EAST and WEST reduced tungsten sputtering sources were observed following several discharges with SBI. Extrapolation of these SBI results are presented to estimate the amount of boron needed for wall conditioning in ITER. Real-time SBI control requirements and plasma operation scenarios for ITER are also described.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

An isotopic test of the seasonal migration hypothesis for large grazing ungulates inhabiting the Palaeo-Agulhas Plain

The Greater Cape Floristic Region of South Africa was critical to the evolution of early modern humans ( Homo sapiens ) during the Pleistocene. The now submerged continental shelf formed its own ecosystem, the Palaeo-Agulhas Plain (PAP), where early humans lived and foraged. Grazing animals living on the plain might have migrated east and west tracking seasonally varying rains—a hypothesis tested here by examining δ 13 C and δ 18 O of serially-drilled teeth from seven ungulate genera: Alcelaphus , Connochaetes , Antidorcus , Redunca , Damaliscus , and Hippotragus . Modern observations and paleoecological reconstructions indicate that summer rainfall areas to the east have more C 4 grasses while the winter rainfall areas to the west have more C 3 grasses, and that summer and winter rains differ in δ 18 O. Thus, we analyze δ 13 C and δ 18 O preserved in herbivore teeth from the site of PP30 (a hyena den dating to ~151 ka) to infer diet and water source throughout tooth formation. On a generic level, we report none of the samples exhibit δ 13 C or δ 18 O values that differ significantly from a taxon that likely foraged locally through the year (Southern reedbuck, Redunca arundium ). Overall, results indicate that the PAP could support herbivore populations year-round without substantial migration, providing an ecosystem ideal for human inhabitants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Spatial heterogeneity analysis of the effects of urbanization on airport CO2 emissions in China - A geographically weighted approach using nighttime light data

Regional disparities in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from airports at the city level are of increasing importance for low-carbon development of the civil aviation sector. However, CO2 emissions from airport operations have rarely been estimated and discussed. We investigate the main driving forces of airport CO2 emissions by using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models, separately, to investigate whether urbanization drives airport CO2 emissions and to investigate spatial heterogeneity at the city level. Nighttime light (NTL) data from satellite observations are adopted as a proxy for urbanization. We obtained energy consumption data by end-use purpose for 70 airports in China and calculated the CO2 emissions from on-ground airport operations. The median CO2 emissions of the 70 sample airports are estimated to be 15.9 million tonnes for 2015. Results from the GWR model indicate that airport CO2 emissions are affected by five main factors: urbanization, foreign direct investment, the share of tertiary industry in gross domestic output, passenger turnover of civil aviation and passenger turnover of railways. The elasticity of urbanization shows an increasing trend from the east of China to the west. The spatial heterogeneity of the CO2 emissions of the five airport clusters that are located in five urban agglomerations is discussed. In order to achieve effective reductions of CO2 emissions from airports, policy-makers should consider the spatial heterogeneity of the major driving factors of carbon emissions in different regions to avoid carbon lock-in.

Airport CO2 emissions↗
DOE OSTI2016

Using geochemical indicators to distinguish high biogeochemical activity in floodplain soils and sediments

A better understanding of how microbial communities interact with their surroundings in physically and chemically heterogeneous subsurface environments will lead to improved quantification of biogeochemical reactions and associated nutrient cycling. This paper develops a methodology to predict potential elevated rates of biogeochemical activity (microbial “hotspots”) in subsurface environments by correlating microbial DNA and aspects of the community structure with the spatial distribution of geochemical indicators in subsurface sediments. Multiple linear regression models of simulated precipitation leachate, HCl and hydroxylamine extractable iron and manganese, total organic carbon (TOC), and microbial community structure were used to identify sample characteristics indicative of biogeochemical hotspots within fluvially-derived aquifer sediments and overlying soils. The method has been applied to (a) alluvial materials collected at a former uranium mill site near Rifle, Colorado and (b) relatively undisturbed floodplain deposits (soils and sediments) collected along the East River near Crested Butte, Colorado. At Rifle, 16 alluvial samples were taken from 8 sediment cores, and at the East River, 46 soil/sediment samples were collected across and perpendicular to 3 active meanders and an oxbow meander. Regression models using TOC and TOC combined with extractable iron and manganese results were determined to be the best fitting statistical models of microbial DNA (via 16S rRNA gene analysis). Finally, fitting these models to observations in both contaminated and natural floodplain deposits, and their associated alluvial aquifers, demonstrates the broad applicability of the geochemical indicator based approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Use of multiple tools including lead isotopes to decipher sources of ozone and reactive mercury to urban and rural locations in Nevada, USA

Ambient air particulate matter (< 2.5 μm in diameter) samples were collected on two different filter types in 2014 and 2015 over 24 h periods and analyzed for reactive mercury (gaseous oxidized mercury + particulate bound mercury) concentrations and lead isotopes to determine sources of pollution to three sites in Nevada, USA. Two sites were located on the western edge of Nevada (Reno, urban, 1370 m and Peavine Peak, rural, high elevation, 2515 m); the third location was ~ 485 km east in rural Great Basin National Park, NV (2061 m). Reactive mercury samples were collected on cation exchange membranes simultaneously with lead samples, collected on Teflon membranes. Lead isotopic ratios have previously identified trans-Pacific lead sources based on the 206/207 and 208/207 lead ratios. Influence from trans-Pacific air masses was higher from March to June associated with long-range transport of pollutants. Spring months are well known for increased transport across the Pacific; however, fall months were also influenced by trans-Pacific air masses in this study. Western North American background ozone concentrations have been measured and modeled at 50 to 55 ppbv. Median ozone concentrations at both rural sites in Nevada were within this range. Sources leading to enhancements in ozone of 2 to 18 ppbv above monthly medians in Nevada included emissions from Eurasia, regional urban centers, and global and regional wildfires, resulting in concentrations close to the USA air quality standard. At the high elevation locations, ozone was derived from pollutants being transported in the free troposphere that originate around the globe; however, Eurasia and Asia were dominant sources to the Western USA. Negative correlations between reactive mercury and percent Asian lead, Northern Eurasia and East Asia trajectories indicated reactive mercury concentrations at the two high elevation sites were produced by oxidants from local, regional, and marine boundary layer sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

3B11-N, a monoclonal antibody against MERS-CoV, reduces lung pathology in rhesus monkeys following intratracheal inoculation of MERS-CoV Jordan-n3/2012

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was identified in 2012 as the causative agent of a severe, lethal respiratory disease occurring across several countries in the Middle East. To date there have been over 1600 laboratory confirmed cases of MERS-CoV in 26 countries with a case fatality rate of 36%. Given the endemic region, it is possible that MERS-CoV could spread during the annual Hajj pilgrimage, necessitating countermeasure development. In this report, we describe the clinical and radiographic changes of rhesus monkeys following infection with 5×10{sup 6} PFU MERS-CoV Jordan-n3/2012. Two groups of NHPs were treated with either a human anti-MERS monoclonal antibody 3B11-N or E410-N, an anti-HIV antibody. MERS-CoV Jordan-n3/2012 infection resulted in quantifiable changes by computed tomography, but limited other clinical signs of disease. 3B11-N treated subjects developed significantly reduced lung pathology when compared to infected, untreated subjects, indicating that this antibody may be a suitable MERS-CoV treatment. - Highlights: • MERS-CoV Jordan-n3/2012 challenge of rhesus monkeys results in a mild disease. • CT can be used to monitor disease progression to aid models of human disease. • Treatment with the human monoclonal antibody 3B11-N resulted in decreased disease.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-term trends in urban NO 2 concentrations and associated paediatric asthma incidence: estimates from global datasets

Combustion-related nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) air pollution is associated with paediatric asthma incidence. We aimed to estimate global surface NO 2 concentrations consistent with the Global Burden of Disease study for 1990-2019 at a 1 km resolution, and the concentrations and attributable paediatric asthma incidence trends in 13 189 cities from 2000 to 2019. We scaled an existing annual average NO 2 concentration dataset for 2010-12 from a land use regression model (based on 5220 NO 2 monitors in 58 countries and land use variables) to other years using NO 2 column densities from satellite and reanalysis datasets. We applied these concentrations in an epidemiologically derived concentration-response function with population and baseline asthma rates to estimate NO 2 -attributable paediatric asthma incidence. We estimated that 1.85 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0.93-2.80 million) new paediatric asthma cases were attributable to NO 2 globally in 2019, two thirds of which occurred in urban areas (1.22 million cases; 95% UI 0.60-1.8 million). The proportion of paediatric asthma incidence that is attributable to NO 2 in urban areas declined from 19.8% (1.22 million attributable cases of 6.14 million total cases) in 2000 to 16.0% (1.24 million attributable cases of 7.73 million total cases) in 2019. Urban attributable fractions dropped in high-income countries (-41%), Latin America and the Caribbean (-16%), central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia (-13%), and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (-6%), and rose in south Asia (+23%), sub-Saharan Africa (+11%), and north Africa and the Middle East (+5%). The contribution of NO 2 concentrations, paediatric population size, and asthma incidence rates to the change in NO 2 -attributable paediatric asthma incidence differed regionally. Despite improvements in some regions, combustion-related NO 2 pollution continues to be an important contributor to paediatric asthma incidence globally, particularly in cities. Mitigating air pollution should be a crucial element of public health strategies for children.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Spatial and Temporal Variations in Characteristic Ratios of Elemental Carbon to Carbon Monoxide and Nitrogen Oxides across the United States

Here, a ratio-based method is used to characterize anthropogenic elemental carbon (EC a ) using in situ measurements and emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NO x ). We use long-term records of ground-based measurements from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System and Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments to assess the patterns in anthropogenic combustion ratios (ΔEC a /ΔCO and ΔEC a /ΔNO x ) across the U.S. Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) regions for the years 2000-2015. We investigate the change in these ratios between the periods 2000-2007 and 2008-2015. Overall, ΔEC a /ΔCO ratios increase by 0.7-82% and ΔEC a /ΔNO x by 6.8-104% across the East and West PADD regions. The urban West showed the largest increase relative to other regions. This is mainly attributed to a 13-23% increase in ΔEC a during the winter and fall seasons and significant reductions in urban ΔNO x (except in winter). We also find that emission ratios derived from the EPA's National Emission Inventory (NEI) overestimate (underestimate) the increase in the observed enhancement ratios in the East (West). Analyses of changes in NEI emissions in the West reveal (a) smaller reductions in NEI emissions for NO x from the off-road sector and (b) an increase in PM 2.5 (particulate matter 2.5 μm or less in diameter) emissions from commercial/residential combustion and smaller reductions in nonroad emissions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Afterslip Enhanced Aftershock Activity During the 2017 Earthquake Sequence Near Sulphur Peak, Idaho

An energetic earthquake sequence occurred during September to October 2017 near Sulphur Peak, Idaho. The normal–faulting M w 5.3 mainshock of 2 September 2017 was widely felt in Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. Over 1,000 aftershocks were located within the first 2 months, 29 of which had magnitudes ≥4.0 M L . High–accuracy locations derived with data from a temporary seismic array show that the sequence occurred in the upper (<10 km) crust of the Aspen Range, east of the northern section of the range–bounding, west–dipping East Bear Lake Fault. Moment tensors for 77 of the largest events show normal and strike–slip faulting with a summed aftershock moment that is 1.8–2.4 times larger than the mainshock moment. Here, we propose that the unusually high productivity of the 2017 Sulphur Peak sequence can be explained by aseismic afterslip, which triggered a secondary swarm south of the coseismic rupture zone beginning ~1 day after the mainshock.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Intensification of the Pre-Meiyu Rainband in the Late 21st Century

Increased atmospheric moisture content and changing land-ocean thermal contrasts are usually implicated in the East Asian summer rainfall response to global warming. We highlight an additional influence whereby increased meridional stationary eddy circulation downstream of the Tibetan Plateau drives a stronger moisture flux convergence over southeastern China, intensifying the early summer rainband. This effect occurs robustly across the Community Earth System Model large ensemble Representative Control Pathway 8.5 simulations, and only for its pre-Meiyu stage (mid-May through late June). The westerly jet impinging on the Plateau is also enhanced, suggesting an orographic influence on the westerlies as the root cause. The increased westerlies result from warmer tropical tropospheric temperatures that enhance the meridional temperature gradient at the latitudes of the Plateau. Finally, our results highlight the potential role of the westerlies in altering the East Asian early summer monsoon rainfall in the late 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclone Activity by S2S and NMME Models

In this study, the prediction of wintertime extratropical cyclone activity from subseasonal to seasonal timescale in current dynamical models' reforecasts is investigated. On seasonal time scales, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models show skillful predictions over the eastern North Pacific, North America and the western North Atlantic with at least 5 months lead. The prediction skill is highly related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as using the ENSO-related SST pattern gives rise to prediction skill with very similar spatial pattern and amplitude. On subseasonal time scales, models in the Seasonal to Sub-seasonal Prediction (S2S) dataset have skillful predictions up to 4 weeks lead over regions from the eastern North Pacific to the western Atlantic, as well as northern Europe, the eastern Atlantic and East Asia. Generally, forecast skill improves with a larger ensemble size. The subseasonal prediction skill from the Pacific to the western Atlantic is related to ENSO, and that over eastern Atlantic, Europe and East Asia are associated with stratospheric polar vortex anomalies. Current models do not show much skill from the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), as the MJO impact on extratropical cyclone activity is not well captured by the models. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model has the highest single model subseasonal prediction skill. The prediction skill in the ECMWF model is higher than its estimated potential predictability, likely because the signal-to-noise ratio is too low in the model hindcasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

First Simultaneous Observation of STEVE and SAR Arc Combining Data From Citizen Scientists, 630.0 nm All‐Sky Images, and Satellites

Abstract On September 28, 2017 citizen scientist observations at Alberta, Canada (51°N, 113° W) detected aurora and a thin east‐west purplish arc, known as strong thermal emission velocity enhancement (STEVE) that lasted less than 20 min. All‐sky imagers at subauroral latitudes measured stable auroral red (SAR) arcs during the entire night. The imager at Bridger, MT (45.3°N, 108.9°W) also measured a STEVE. The overlapping geometry allowed to determine that the height of STEVE was 225–275 km. STEVE is brighter in the 630.0 nm images in the West and almost merges with the SAR arc in the East. A DMSP satellite pass in the southern hemisphere was at the conjugate location of the Bridger imager during the STEVE observation. When mapped into the northern hemisphere intense subauroral ion drift and subauroral polarization streams were detected associated with the two optical signatures measured in 630.0 nm.

Martinis, C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Crust and Upper Mantle Structure Beneath the Eastern United States

Abstract The Eastern United States (EUS) has a complex geological history and hosts several seismic active regions. We investigate the subsurface structure beneath the broader EUS. To produce reliable images of the subsurface, we simultaneously invert smoothed P‐wave receiver functions, Rayleigh‐wave phase and group velocity measurements, and Bouguer gravity observations for the 3D shear‐wave speed. Using surface‐wave observations (3–250 s) and spatially smoothed receiver functions, our velocity models are robust, reliable, and rich in detail. The shear‐wave velocity models fit all three types of observations well. The resulting velocity model for the eastern U.S. shows thinner crust beneath New England, the east coast, and the Mississippi Embayment (ME). A relatively thicker crust was found beneath the stable North America craton. A relatively slower upper mantle was imaged beneath New England, the east coast, and western ME. A comparison of crust thickness derived from our model against four recent published models shows first‐order consistency. A relatively small upper mantle low‐speed region correlates with a published P‐wave analysis that has associated the anomaly with a 75 Ma kimberlite volcanic site in Kentucky. We also explored the relationship between the subsurface structure and seismicity in the eastern U.S. We found that earthquakes often locate near regions with seismic velocity variations, but not universally. Not all regions of significant subsurface wave speed changes are loci of seismicity. A weak correlation between upper mantle shear velocity and earthquake focal mechanism has been observed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Warm Phase of AMV Damps ENSO Through Weakened Thermocline Feedback

Abstract Interactions between ocean basins affect El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), altering its impacts on society. Here, we explore the effect of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) on ENSO behavior using idealized experiments performed with the NCAR‐CESM1 model. Comparing warm (AMV+) to cold (AMV−) AMV conditions, we find that ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are reduced by ∼10% and ENSO precipitation anomalies are shifted to the west during El Niño and east during La Niña. Using the Bjerknes stability index, we attribute the reduction in ENSO variability to a weakened thermocline feedback in boreal autumn. In AMV+, the Walker circulation and trade winds strengthen over the tropical Pacific, increasing the background zonal SST gradient. The background changes shift ENSO anomalies westwards, with wind stress anomalies more confined to the west. We suggest the changes in ENSO‐wind stress decrease the strength of the thermocline feedback in the east, eventually reducing ENSO growth rate.

Trascasa‐Castro, Paloma↗
DOE OSTI2021

Summer mean and extreme precipitation over the Mid-Atlantic region: climatological characteristics and contributions from different precipitation types

Based on a long-term observational dataset from the tracking of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), isolated deep convection (IDC), and tropical cyclones (TCs), we examine the climatological characteristics of summer mean and extreme precipitation during 2004 – 2017 and their respective contributions from MCS, IDC, TC, and non-convective (NC) systems and the local vs. remote influence of MCS and IDC over the MAR. On average, MCS, IDC, TC, and NC contribute 22%, 29%, 4%, and 45% to the total summer mean precipitation in the region. While MCS and TC precipitation primarily occurs in the coastal areas east of the Appalachian Mountains, IDC precipitation is more concentrated in the southern MAR and near the mountain windward slopes. Each summer, ~41 MCSs with an average lifetime of 19.6 hours influence the MAR, with 80% initiated outside and traveling on average 10 hours to the region. Around 13 MCSs initiated in the Great Plains and Midwest propagate across the Appalachian Mountains and contribute 20-40% to summer MCS precipitation in the central Mid-Atlantic coastal areas. In contrast, more than 2000 IDCs with an average lifetime of 2.0 hours influence the MAR each summer, and 77% are initiated locally. MCS, IDC, TC, and NC contribute 31% (30%), 26% (31%), 18% (7%), and 26% (32%) to the top 1% (5%) extreme daily precipitation, respectively. Considering extreme hourly precipitation, however, the IDC contributions increase to 41% (top 1%) and 38% (top 5%) due to the shorter duration of IDC events than the other precipitation types.

Li, Jianfeng↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Precipitation Displacement of a Simulated MCS to Changes in Land Surface Conditions

Abstract This study investigates the role of the land surface on the precipitation produced by an elevated mesoscale convective system (MCS) in Iowa between 24–25 June 2015 during the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign. Previous studies have shown a strong effect of low‐level atmospheric moisture on the location of this MCS. A series of semi‐idealized and realistic simulations with irrigation are conducted to understand the effect of moisture perturbations on the MCS precipitation displacement. In general, numerical simulations place the MCS east of the observed location. Adding moisture directly in the low‐level atmosphere in the semi‐idealized experiments reduces this displacement error. However, experiments with perturbed soil moisture result in drying over Iowa induced by moisture flux divergence from cooler low‐level temperatures and higher surface pressure, causing the MCS to move further to the east. The irrigation impact on low‐level moisture is highly dependent on the length of simulation period. Shorter simulations on the order of days generate similar drying over Iowa but the opposite is found for month‐long simulations. Despite the lack of low‐level moistening in the perturbed soil moisture and short‐term irrigation experiments, the sensitivity to low‐level moisture is similar in all runs. More low‐level moisture generates a more convectively unstable environment with less inhibition and a lower level of free convection that leads to more rapid MCS development and a change in MCS location.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗