Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Confidence”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,333 records · Page 74
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

The Reaction of Atomic Hydrogen with an Imine: Direct Kinetic Measurements and Computational Studies

Imines are of interest in the combustion modeling of nitrogen-based fuels such as ammonia, as intermediates in atmospheric oxidation of amines, and may offer a new class of environmentally benign substitutes for perhalogenated reagents. Elementary gas-phase rate constants for the consumption of H atoms by 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoro-2-propanimine were measured over 294–736 K using the laser flash photolysis/atomic resonance fluorescence technique. The results are summarized as 3.0 × 10 –11 exp(−14.5 kJ mol –1 /RT) cm 3 molecule –1 s –1 with a confidence interval of ±13%. These are the first temperature-dependent kinetic experiments on an imine of the form R 2 C═NH and thereby provide the only validation of transition-state modeling for such systems. Several pathways are feasible; comparison of theory and experiment suggests the dominant channel is addition of H atoms to the nitrogen atom. On this basis, the observations are rationalized quantitatively. Computations also yield the thermochemistry of (CF 3 ) 2 CNH, with Δ f H 298 = −1232 kJ mol –1 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate Modeling of Bromide and Iodide Hydration with Data-Driven Many-Body Potentials

Ion–water interactions play a central role in determining the properties of aqueous systems in a wide range of environments. However, a quantitative understanding of how the hydration properties of ions evolve from small aqueous clusters to bulk solutions and interfaces remains elusive. Here, we introduce the second generation of data-driven many-body energy (MBnrg) potential energy functions (PEFs) representing bromide–water and iodide–water interactions. The MB-nrg PEFs use permutationally invariant polynomials to reproduce two-body and three-body energies calculated at the coupled cluster level of theory, and implicitly represent all higher-body energies using classical many-body polarization. Further, a systematic analysis of the hydration structure of small Br - (H 2 O) n and I - (H 2 O) n clusters demonstrates that the MBnrg PEFs predict interaction energies in quantitative agreement with “gold standard” coupled cluster reference values. Importantly, when used in molecular dynamics simulations carried out in the isothermal-isobaric ensemble for single bromide and iodide ions in liquid water, the MB-nrg PEFs predict extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectra that accurately reproduce the experimental spectra, which thus allows for characterizing the hydration structure of the two ions with high level of confidence.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Errors in Effective Cluster Interactions of Lattice Gas Cluster Expansions

The promise of lattice gas (LG) cluster expansions (CEs) is that they can describe a given system property to any level of accuracy since the orthogonal “cluster basis functions” span the complete space of available configurations. Such an approach can be constructed to an arbitrarily large surface of a finite number of distinct adsorption sites. Unfortunately, this is only true for the case of an ideal, fixed lattice decorated with components at precise lattice points (the lattice “sites”) with no distortions or relaxations subsequently allowed. Since most systems, and surfaces specifically, do not conform to such an ideal set of constraints, errors in LG CEs must be expected or CE convergence severely hampered. Beyond this, numerical errors in the provided data can complicate the proper construction of a truly predictive and/or physically significant CE. In this work, we show here how reliance on typical statistical tools like confidence intervals cannot be expected to provide an accurate representation of the uncertainty of effective cluster interactions (ECIs) in the CE due to the nature of the target ab initio data and the nature of CEs themselves. We develop a method for estimating these errors that does not rely on statistical assumptions about the model or data. We then use these ECI errors to quantify fundamental consequences on the uncertainty of ECIs in CEs built from O/Fe(100) data whose surface and adsorbates have been allowed to relax in a typical manner and from O/Fe(100) data whose surface and adsorbates are fixed in ideal lattice positions. We also quantify the effect of using a different density functional theory exchange–correlation functional, using these ECI errors to assess the significance in any deviations. In both cases, our method is shown to have remarkable utility in the quantification of errors in the ECIs of CEs. While we stick to the lattice gas convention in this work, the method is equally applicable to the Ising convention or, in principle, any linear model of sufficient complexity.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing the Quality and Reliability of Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials through Better Reporting Practices

Recent developments in machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have empowered even nonexperts in machine learning to train MLIPs for accelerating materials simulations. However, reproducibility and independent evaluation of presented MLIP results is hindered by a lack of clear standards in current literature. In this Perspective, we aim to provide guidance on best practices for documenting MLIP use while walking the reader through the development and deployment of MLIPs including hardware and software requirements, generating training data, training models, validating predictions, and MLIP inference. We also suggest useful plotting practices and analyses to validate and boost confidence in the deployed models. Finally, we provide a step-by-step checklist for practitioners to use directly before publication to standardize the information to be reported. Altogether, we hope that our work will encourage the reliable and reproducible use of these MLIPs, which will accelerate their ability to make a positive impact in various disciplines including materials science, chemistry, and biology, among others.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scale Invariance of Hot Spot Formation in TATB High Explosives

Shock-induced detonation of insensitive high explosives based on 1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene starts with formation of hot spots at microstructural defects but has eluded atomistic modeling treatment at micron length scales. To this end, we performed multimicron scale all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of hot spots that form during the collapse of cylindrical pores with diameters between 10 and 300 nm. Our MD simulations show that hot spots formed at pores larger than 20 nm exhibit temperature fields with scale-invariant features for sizes up to at least 300 nm. Through a continuum-based grain-scale modeling framework, we span and extend beyond the size scales currently accessible to MD and find that hot spot scale invariance is a general feature that arises when the mechanical strength is insensitive to strain rate. Finally, our results demonstrate the applicability of all-atom MD to simulate the complicated dynamical evolution of micron-sized systems and bolster confidence in insights from MD simulations of materials that exhibit strength with negligible rate dependence over the relevant intervals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

First-Principles Dissociation Pathways of BCl 3 on the Si(100)-2 × 1 Surface

BCl 3 is a promising acceptor precursor for atomic-precision δ-doping of silicon, as it has been observed to rapidly dissociate into boron doped into the silicon surface and surface chlorine, which can be removed upon annealing. The chemical pathway and the resulting kinetics, through which BCl 3 adsorbs and dissociates on silicon, however, have only been partially explained. Here, in this work, we use density functional theory to expand the dissociation reactions of BCl 3 to include reactions that take place across multiple silicon dimer rows and reactions which end in a bare B atom either at the surface, substituted for a surface silicon, or in a subsurface position. We further simulate the resulting scanning tunneling microscopy images for each of these BCl x dissociation fragments, demonstrating that they often display distinct features that may allow for relatively confident experimental identification. Finally, we input the full dissociation pathway for BCl 3 into a kinetic Monte Carlo model, which simulates realistic reaction pathways as a function of environmental conditions, such as the pressure and temperature of dosing. We find that BCl 2 is broadly dominant at low temperatures, while high temperatures and ample space on the silicon surface for dissociation encourage the formation of bridging BCl fragments and B substitutions on the surface. This work provides the chemical mechanisms for understanding atomic-precision doping of Si with B, enabling a number of relevant quantum applications, such as bipolar nanoelectronics, acceptor-based qubits, and superconducting Si.

Campbell, Quinn T. [Sandia National Laboratories (↗
DOE OSTI2020

Proteomic Characterization of Damaged Single Hairs Recovered after an Explosion for Protein-Based Human Identification

Evidence recovery is challenging where an explosion has occurred. Though hair evidence may be sufficiently robust to be recovered at the site, forensic analysis underutilizes the matrix by relying on morphological analysis. Where DNA is compromised, particularly in hair, protein-based human identification presents a promising alternative. Detection of amino acid polymorphisms in hair proteins as genetically variant peptides (GVPs) permits the inference of individualizing single nucleotide polymorphisms for identification. However, an explosive blast may damage hair proteins and compromise GVP identification. This work evaluates effects of an explosive blast on the hair proteome and GVP identification, investigates microscopy as a predictor of proteome profiling success in recovered hairs to improve analysis throughput, and quantifies discriminative power in damaged hairs. The proteomics dataset has been deposited into the ProteomeXchange Consortium (PXD017427). With the exception of degradation in keratins K75, K80, K40, and keratin-associated protein KAP10-11 as markers of hair cuticular damage, corroborated by scanning electron microscopic analysis, minimal hair proteome degradation following explosion allowed successful proteome profiling of single hairs regardless of morphological damage. Finally, GVP identification remained independent of explosion conditions, permitting similar discriminative power between exploded and undamaged hairs. These findings lend greater confidence to GVP analysis in one-inch hairs for forensic identification and provide information about hair protein localization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Introducing Molecular Hypernetworks for Discovery in Multidimensional Metabolomics Data

Orthogonal separations of data from high-resolution mass spectrometry can provide insight into sample composition and address challenges of complete annotation of molecules in untargeted metabolomics. “Molecular networks” (MNs), as used in the Global Natural Products Social Molecular Networking platform, are a prominent strategy for exploring and visualizing molecular relationships and improving annotation. MNs are mathematical graphs showing the relationships between measured multidimensional data features. MNs also show promise for using network science algorithms to automatically identify targets for annotation candidates and to dereplicate features associated with a single molecular identity. Here, this paper introduces “molecular hypernetworks” (MHNs) as more complex MN models able to natively represent multiway relationships among observations. Compared to MNs, MHNs can more parsimoniously represent the inherent complexity present among groups of observations, initially supporting improved exploratory data analysis and visualization. MHNs also promise to increase confidence in annotation propagation, for both human and analytical processing. We first illustrate MHNs with simple examples, and build them from liquid chromatography- and ion mobility spectrometry-separated MS data. We then describe a method to construct MHNs directly from existing MNs as their “clique reconstructions”, demonstrating their utility by comparing examples of previously published graph-based MNs to their respective MHNs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Comment on “Deep Proteogenomics of a Photosynthetic Cyanobacterium”

Proteomic researchers strive to achieve complete annotation of protein-coding DNA sequences to provide a foundational context for their relevant biological data. A recent deep proteogenomic study using a photosynthetic cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 by Spät et al. proposed 64 refined open reading frames (ORFs). By searching LC-MS/MS data from affinity chromatography-isolated protein complexes, our laboratory identified that six of these high-abundance ORFs possess Nterminal initiation start sites that differ than those proposed in the alternative models. Our findings are supported by highly confident MS2 data, phylogenetic analysis, chemical labeling, and established data from two independent research groups. Based on these highquality experimental identifications, we subsequently propose a standardized strategy and set of criteria for future deep proteogenomic efforts to ensure accurate and stringent proteogenomic annotation.

cyanobacteria↗
DOE OSTI2025

NEXAFS Spectroscopy of P3HT and PBTTT at the Sulfur K-Edge

The sulfur K-edge near-edge X-ray absorption fine-structure (NEXAFS) spectra of the common conjugated polymers P3HT and PBTTT are studied from both experimental and theoretical perspectives. Experimental angle-resolved spectra are measured to characterize both the dominant peaks and the dichroism of the polymers. First-principles calculations using the density functional theory-based many-body X-ray absorption spectroscopy (MBXAS) method are performed for the two polymers as well as for the thiophene and thienothiophene units that make up the conjugated backbones of these polymers. Through this combined approach, we are able to confidently assign the observed peaks to specific molecular orbitals and identify the orientation of their transition dipole moments (TDMs) with respect to the coordinate frame of the polymer backbone. Here, in particular, we are able to establish the character and orthogonal nature of the three main low-energy peaks at: (i) 2473.5 eV, 1s → (S–C)­π* with TDM along the π-stacking direction; (ii) 2474.1 eV, 1s → (S–C)­σ* with TDM along the backbone; and (iii) 2475.4 eV, 1s → (S–C)­σ* with TDM perpendicular to the first two. By performing both gas-phase and solid-state simulations, and with reference to the NEXAFS spectra of thiophene and thienothiophene building blocks, the influences of polymerization and molecular packing are also explored.

Chantler, Paul Alexander [Monash University, Clayt↗
DOE OSTI2026

Activity Convergence between Continuous- and Pulsed-Deposition NiFe Hydroxide Anodes in Liquid Alkaline Electrolyzers

Improving the activity of anodes for the alkaline oxygen evolution reaction (OER) is of interest because of the importance of the reaction in electrochemical technology. There is an abundance of studies which confirm that NiFe hydroxide, often prepared by electrodeposition, is the most active catalyst for the alkaline OER. This relatively high level of confidence in the optimal OER catalyst chemistry suggests that exploration of methods which improve on features besides the chemistry of the films, such as their microstructure, could access new heights of activity. In this study, the possible benefits of pulsed current deposition relative to the conventional continuous current approach to the deposition of NiFe hydroxides were investigated. Pulsed deposition densified the film surfaces by preventing metal ion depletion at the electrode surface during film formation. The Fe content, redox reversibility, and OER activity were higher for the pulsed deposition films relative to their continuous deposition counterparts. Though pulsed deposition imparted a higher OER performance of the films compared to continuous deposition at the three-electrode level, this improved performance was not retained during electrolyzer operation. Rather, a convergence of the cell performance is seen irrespective of the deposition approach. This phenomenon was attributed to the way electrolyzer conditionsrelatively high temperature, base concentration, and current densitycan drive alternate mechanisms for observed performance.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Critical Practices in Rigorously Assessing the Inherent Activity of Nanoparticle Electrocatalysts

Accurate activity measurements for electrocatalytic materials are the backbone of impactful electrocatalyst research. Inherent to accurate measurements is the correct accounting of the active catalyst sites and the design of experiments to ensure that these sites are participating in the measured reaction. Improvements in electrocatalyst activity for fuel cell reactions (hydrogen oxidation and oxygen reduction) are essential for the widespread adoption of this carbon-neutral energy source. Activities for these half-reactions can be reported in a variety of ways including specific activities, mass activities, volumetric activities, and half-wave potentials. These values are traditionally measured with a rotating disk electrode (RDE) in which the electrocatalyst is supported on a porous active layer film attached to the RDE. To accurately measure electrocatalyst activity with an RDE, two major sources of errors must be addressed: (i) accurate electrochemical surface area (ECSA) quantification and (ii) fast diffusion of reactants through the active layer film. In this contribution, we first aim to detail through RDE experiments and mass transport modeling the potential errors that can be observed when these factors are not properly addressed. We then present recommendations and discuss techniques for properly constructing electrocatalyst thin films and characterizing the ECSA on monometallic and novel alloy electrocatalysts. These practices, when adopted, ensure greater confidence and reliability in reports of electrocatalyst activity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nature of S-States in the Oxygen-Evolving Complex Resolved by High-Energy Resolution Fluorescence Detected X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy

Photosystem II, the water splitting enzyme of photosynthesis, utilizes the energy of sunlight to drive the four-electron oxidation of water to dioxygen at the oxygen-evolving complex (OEC). The OEC harbors a Mn 4 CaO 5 cluster that cycles through five oxidation states S i (i = 0–4). The S 3 state is the last metastable state before the O 2 evolution. Its electronic structure and nature of the S 2 → S 3 transition are key topics of persisting controversy. Most spectroscopic studies suggest that the S 3 state consists of four Mn(IV) ions, compared to the Mn(III)Mn(IV) 3 of the S 2 state. However, recent crystallographic data have received conflicting interpretations, suggesting either metal- or ligand-based oxidation, the latter leading to an oxyl radical or a peroxo moiety in the S 3 state. Herein, we utilize high-energy resolution fluorescence detected (HERFD) X-ray absorption spectroscopy to obtain a highly resolved description of the Mn K pre-edge region for all S-states, paying special attention to use chemically unperturbed S 3 state samples. In combination with quantum chemical calculations, we achieve assignment of specific spectroscopic features to geometric and electronic structures for all S-states. These data are used to confidently discriminate between the various suggestions concerning the electronic structure and the nature of oxidation events in all observable catalytic intermediates of the OEC. Our results do not support the presence of either peroxo or oxyl in the active configuration of the S 3 state. This establishes Mn-centered storage of oxidative equivalents in all observable catalytic transitions and constrains the onset of the O–O bond formation until after the final light-driven oxidation event.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Basin-Size Mapping: Prediction of Metastable Polymorph Synthesizability Across TaC–TaN Alloys

The sizes of the basins of attraction on the potential energy surface are helpful indicators in determining the experimental synthesizability of metastable phases. In principle, these basins can be controlled with changes in thermodynamic conditions such as composition, pressure, and surface energy. Herein, we use random structure sampling to computationally study how alloying smoothly perturbs basin of attraction sizes. The TaC 1-x N x pseudobinary is an ideal test system given the structural and polymorphic contrast of its parent compounds and their technological relevance as epitaxial substrates for Al 1-x Ga x N. While we find limited thermodynamic stability across all computationally observed phases, random structure sampling shows a significant composition region where the rocksalt basin dominates. As such, we predict the potential for the nonequilibrium synthesis of metastable rocksalt TaC 1-x N x alloys as substrates for Al 1-x Ga x N. At higher nitrogen concentrations, other low-energy metastable polymorphs emerge that continue to retain the hexagonal close packing suitable for III-N growth. Confidence in these trends was established through uncertainty quantification of the basin sizes and energy distributions; such analysis utilized the Beta and Dirichlet distributions. In conclusion, we also find (a) polymorph basin sizes can be rationalized in terms of energetic preferences for different coordination environments; and (b) basin sizes universally shrink with increasing nitrogen content, making the system more prone to amorphous growth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of a Reference-Free Collision Cross Section Calibration Strategy for Proteomics Using SLIM-Based High-Resolution Ion Mobility Spectrometry–Mass Spectrometry

Ion mobility spectrometry (IMS) is a gas-phase analytical technique that separates ions with different sizes and shapes and is compatible with mass spectrometry (MS) to provide an additional separation dimension. The rapid nature of the IMS separation combined with the high sensitivity of MS-based detection and the ability to derive structural information on analytes in the form of the property collision cross section (CCS) makes IMS particularly well-suited for characterizing complex samples in -omics applications. In such applications, the quality of CCS from IMS measurements is critical to confident annotation of the detected components in the complex -omics samples. However, most IMS instrumentation in mainstream use requires calibration to calculate CCS from measured arrival times, with the most notable exception being drift tube IMS measurements using multifield methods. The strategy for calibrating CCS values, particularly selection of appropriate calibrants, has important implications for CCS accuracy, reproducibility, and transferability between laboratories. The conventional approach to CCS calibration involves explicitly defining calibrants ahead of data acquisition and crucially relies upon availability of reference CCS values. In this work, we present a novel reference-free approach to CCS calibration which leverages trends among putatively identified features and computational CCS prediction to conduct calibrations post-data acquisition and without relying on explicitly defined calibrants. We demonstrated the utility of this reference-free CCS calibration strategy for proteomics application using high-resolution structures for lossless ion manipulations (SLIM)-based IMS-MS. In conclusion, we first validated the accuracy of CCS values using a set of synthetic peptides and then demonstrated using a complex peptide sample from cell lysate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Small-Angle X-ray Scattering Analysis in Autonomous Experimentation

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful high-throughput characterization tool for probing nanoscale structure in native sample environments, providing real-time morphological information such as nanoparticle size and shape during synthesis. However, automated SAXS data analysis for extracting meaningful structural parameters is non-trivial and remains a bottleneck in closed-loop experimentation towards autonomous materials discovery, which demands fast, reliable, and uncertainty-aware data analysis. Here, we develop a machine-learning approach for automated SAXS analysis tailored to closed-loop nanoparticle synthesis. A Random Forest (RF) regression model is trained on 100,000 synthetic SAXS curves generated from polydisperse spherical nanoparticles with realistic background contributions. Using normalized one-dimensional SAXS intensity profiles as input, the RF model directly predicts nanoparticle radius, size polydispersity, and background parameters, while the ensemble standard deviation across trees provides built-in uncertainty quantification (UQ). On synthetic data, we show that combining fit-quality metrics (R 2 , MAE) with thresholds on prediction uncertainty reliably identifies accurate parameter estimates without access to ground truth. We then apply the trained model to 365 experimental SAXS profiles of citrate-reduced gold nanoparticles synthesized using an automated droplet-flow microreactor with in situ SAXS at a synchrotron beamline, classifying the results into high- and low-confidence subsets based on UQ metrics. Finally, we integrate RF-based SAXS analysis into a simulated closed-loop optimization campaign using Gaussian process Bayesian optimization to minimize nanoparticle polydispersity, benchmarking against conventional automated Levenberg–Marquardt fitting. The RF-guided campaign exhibits substantially faster convergence and lower relative opportunity cost (∼0.07 vs ∼0.3), demonstrating that uncertainty-aware machine-learning SAXS analysis significantly enhances the efficiency and robustness of autonomous nanomaterials synthesis workflows.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2020

Doubling of U.S. Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by 2050

We quantify historical and projected trends in the population exposure to climate extremes as measured by the United States National Center for Environmental Information Climate Extremes Index (CEI). Based on the analyses of the historical observations, we find that the U.S. has already experienced a rise in the occurrence of aggregated extremes in recent decades, consistent with the climate response to historical increases in radiative forcing. Additionally, we find that exposure can be expected to intensify under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, with all counties permanently exceeding the baseline variability in the occurrence of extreme hot days, warm nights, and drought conditions by 2050. As a result, every county in the U.S. is projected to permanently exceed the historical CEI variability (as measured by one standard deviation during the 1981–2005 period). Based on the current population distribution, this unprecedented change implies a yearly exposure to extreme conditions for one in every three people. We find that the increasing trend in exposure to the aggregated extremes is already detectable over much of the U.S., and particularly in the central and eastern U.S. The high correspondence between the pattern of trends in our simulations and observations increases confidence in the projected amplification of population exposure to unprecedented combinations of extreme climate conditions, should greenhouse gas concentrations continue to escalate along their current trajectory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

Abstract Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol‐radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol‐driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed‐phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of ‐1.6 to ‐0.6 W m −2 , or ‐2.0 to ‐0.4 W m −2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial‐era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗