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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1995

A relational metric, its application to domain analysis, and an example analysis and model of a remote sensing domain

An objective and quantitative method has been developed for deriving models of complex and specialized spheres of activity (domains) from domain-generated verbal data. The method was developed for analysis of interview transcripts, incident reports, and other text documents whose original source is people who are knowledgeable about, and participate in, the domain in question. To test the method, it is applied here to a report describing a remote sensing project within the scope of the Earth Observing System (EOS). The method has the potential to improve the designs of domain-related computer systems and software by quickly providing developers with explicit and objective models of the domain in a form which is useful for design. Results of the analysis include a network model of the domain, and an object-oriented relational analysis report which describes the nodes and relationships in the network model. Other products include a database of relationships in the domain, and an interactive concordance. The analysis method utilizes a newly developed relational metric, a proximity-weighted frequency of co-occurrence. The metric is applied to relations between the most frequently occurring terms (words or multiword entities) in the domain text, and the terms found within the contexts of these terms. Contextual scope is selectable. Because of the discriminating power of the metric, data reduction from the association matrix to the network is simple. In addition to their value for design. the models produced by the method are also useful for understanding the domains themselves. They can, for example, be interpreted as models of presence in the domain.

Mcgreevy, Michael W.↗

NASA NTRS2003

The X-38 Spacecraft Fault-Tolerant Avionics System

In 1995 NASA began an experimental program to develop a reusable crew return vehicle (CRV) for the International Space Station. The purpose of the CRV was threefold: (i) to bring home an injured or ill crewmember; (ii) to bring home the entire crew if the Shuttle fleet was grounded; and (iii) to evacuate the crew in the case of an imminent Station threat (i.e., fire, decompression, etc). Built at the Johnson Space Center, were two approach and landing prototypes and one spacecraft demonstrator (called V201). A series of increasingly complex ground subsystem tests were completed, and eight successful high-altitude drop tests were achieved to prove the design concept. In this program, an unprecedented amount of commercial-off-the-shelf technology was utilized in this first crewed spacecraft NASA has built since the Shuttle program. Unfortunately, in 2002 the program was canceled due to changing Agency priorities. The vehicle was 80% complete and the program was shut down in such a manner as to preserve design, development, test and engineering data. This paper describes the X-38 V201 fault-tolerant avionics system. Based on Draper Laboratory's Byzantine-resilient fault-tolerant parallel processing system and their "network element" hardware, each flight computer exchanges information on a strict timescale to process input data, compare results, and issue voted vehicle output commands. Major accomplishments achieved in this development include: (i) a space qualified two-fault tolerant design using mostly COTS (hardware and operating system); (ii) a single event upset tolerant network element board, (iii) on-the-fly recovery of a failed processor; (iv) use of synched cache; (v) realignment of memory to bring back a failed channel; (vi) flight code automatically generated from the master measurement list; and (vii) built in-house by a team of civil servants and support contractors. This paper will present an overview of the avionics system and the hardware implementation, as well as the system software and vehicle command & telemetry functions. Potential improvements and lessons learned on this program are also discussed.

Kouba,Coy↗

NASA NTRS2015

Earth-Facing Antenna Characterization in Complex Ground Plane/Multipath Rich Environment

The Space Communications and Navigation (SCAN) Testbed was a Software Defined Radio (SDR)-based payload launched to the International Space Station (ISS) in July of 2012. The purpose of the SCAN Testbed payload was to investigate the applicability of SDRs to NASA space missions in an operational environment, which means that a proper model for system performance in said operational space environment is a necessary condition. The SCAN Testbed has line-of-sight connections to various ground stations with its S-Band Earth-facing Near-Earth-Network Low Gain Antenna (NEN-LGA). Any previous efforts to characterize the NEN-LGA proved difficult, therefore, the NASA Glenn Research Center built its own S-Band ground station, which became operational in 2015, and has been used successfully to characterize the NEN-LGA's in-situ pattern measurements. This methodology allows for a more realistic characterization of the antenna performance, where the pattern oscillation induced by the complex ISS ground plane, as well as shadowing effects due to ISS structural blockage are included into the final performance model. This paper describes the challenges of characterizing an antenna pattern in this environment. It will also discuss the data processing, present the final antenna pattern measurements and derived model, as well as discuss various lessons learned

ground station↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predictive Workload Model for Air Traffic Controllers during UAM Operations

The effect of airspace factors on air traffic controller (ATC) workload has been an active area of study for almost three decades due to the importance of safety considerations necessary to design and maintain operations. Existing literature has examined several traffic-related (e.g., number of aircraft under control, loss of separation) contributors to ATC workload and proposed mathematical functions to best describe controller response. However, future air traffic continues to increase in complexity with the introduction of urban air mobility (UAM) – or the transportation of humans and cargo using electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. UAM aims to alleviate congestion for existing ground transportation systems and improve mobility within urban centers and other high-demand locations. This shift in the traditional airspace paradigm necessitates an evolved understanding of model use and development for ATC workload prediction. This study aimed to develop an ATC workload forecasting model based on human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulation data for UAM operations at large airports. Data collected from the HITL simulation served as the training and testing data for a Long Short-Term Memory recurrent neural network and enabled time-series forecasting of ATC workload from traffic characteristics. Results demonstrated the potential of LSTM models for forecasting ATC workload 40 minutes into the future and highlighted important considerations for future development.

predictive model↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predictive Workload Model for Air Traffic Controllers during UAM Operations

predictive model↗

NASA NTRS2011

Multi-Sensor Aerosol Products Sampling System

Global and local properties of atmospheric aerosols have been extensively observed and measured using both spaceborne and ground-based instruments, especially during the last decade. Unique properties retrieved by the different instruments contribute to an unprecedented availability of the most complete set of complimentary aerosol measurements ever acquired. However, some of these measurements remain underutilized, largely due to the complexities involved in analyzing them synergistically. To characterize the inconsistencies and bridge the gap that exists between the sensors, we have established a Multi-sensor Aerosol Products Sampling System (MAPSS), which consistently samples and generates the spatial statistics (mean, standard deviation, direction and rate of spatial variation, and spatial correlation coefficient) of aerosol products from multiple spacebome sensors, including MODIS (on Terra and Aqua), MISR, OMI, POLDER, CALIOP, and SeaWiFS. Samples of satellite aerosol products are extracted over Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) locations as well as over other locations of interest such as those with available ground-based aerosol observations. In this way, MAPSS enables a direct cross-characterization and data integration between Level-2 aerosol observations from multiple sensors. In addition, the available well-characterized co-located ground-based data provides the basis for the integrated validation of these products. This paper explains the sampling methodology and concepts used in MAPSS, and demonstrates specific examples of using MAPSS for an integrated analysis of multiple aerosol products.

Petrenko, M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Toward The Development of Hailstorm Climatologies Derived From Reanalyses and Infared/Passive Microwave Satellite Imagers

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Meteosat series, provide both historical and near-real-time observations of cloud top patterns that are commonly associated with severe convection. Environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are thought to be represented well by reanalyses. Predicting exactly where convection and costly storm hazards like hail will occur using models or satellite imagery alone, however, is extremely challenging. The multivariate combination of satellite-observed cloud patterns with reanalysis environmental parameters, linked to United States Next Generation Weather Radar- (NEXRAD-) estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) using a deep neural network (DNN), enables estimation of potentially severe hail likelihood for any observed storm cell. These estimates are specifically designed to make hail likelihood distinctions based on satellite-indicated points of deep convection within environments favorable for storm development. We seek an approach that can be used to estimate climatological hailstorm frequency and risk throughout the historical satellite data record. This presentation demonstrates that statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis show separation between non-severe/severe hailstorm classes for predictors including overshooting cloud top temperature and area characteristics, convective available potential energy, vertical wind shear, 500 hPa temperature, mid-level lapse rate, precipitable water, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN to produce a hail likelihood metric with a critical success index of 0.504 and Heidke skill score of 0.403, which is exceptional among recent analogous hail studies. Furthermore, applications of the DNN to select case studies demonstrate good qualitative agreement between hail likelihood and MESH. These hail classifications are aggregated across an 11-year GOES-12/13 image database to derive a hail frequency and severity climatology, which denotes the Central Plains, the Midwest, and northwestern Mexico as being the most hail-prone regions within the domain studied. Opportunities for training and applying DNN-based hailstorm predictions to recently developed GOES-8/10/12/13/16 and Meteosat Second Generation convective storm detection and characterization climatologies over South America and South Africa, respectively, will also be presented.

Kristopher Bedka↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Earth Systems Digital Twins (ESDT)

"Similarly to artificial intelligence, which is now revolutionizing many aspects of our daily lives, Earth system digital twin technologies have the potential to revolutionize the way Earth Science research will be conducted in the future, and how results and knowledge from this research will provide information to support decision making and yield impactful societal benefits. An Earth System Digital Twin or ESDT is a dynamic and interactive information system that first provides a digital replica of the past and current states of the Earth or Earth system as accurately and timely as possible; second, allows for computing forecasts of future states under nominal assumptions and based on the current replica; and third, offers the capability to investigate many hypothetical scenarios under varying impact assumptions. In other words, an ESDT provides the integrated What-Now, What-Next, and What-If pictures of the Earth or Earth system, by continuously ingesting newly observed data and by leveraging multiple interconnected models, machine learning as well advanced computing and visualization capabilities. Digital twins have been developed in engineering since 2002, but the interest in digital twins for the Earth domain is more recent and stems from the convergence of several developments: - The huge amount of diverse data that has now been collected continuously for more than 50 years, and that is becoming more and more difficult to access, understand, and utilize. - At the same time, because of climate change and its impacts the information produced by all of this data is becoming of interest to many new non-traditional users for analyzing and predicting various phenomena. - Because of advances in computational and visualization capabilities and the parallel unprecedented development of machine learning (ML), extracting relevant information from these large amounts of data and running complex models faster has become possible. As a result, it is becoming necessary and possible to build intuitive and interactive frameworks that will enable users with various skill levels and/or organizational hierarchy levels to easily access large amounts of targeted information along with the relevant tools and models (Earth system and human activity models), to support them in analyzing and visualizing this information, to help them understand interactions among models, to visualize the potential outcomes of various impacts, and to support decision or policy making. The full power of digital twins is that, through an integrated representation and standardized tools and software technologies, the same digital replica can address the needs of multiple users at various resolutions (spatial and temporal) and for various applications (science, economic, policy, etc.) – “from farmer to scientist”. With all these interests at stake, the challenges of building optimal digital twins are many and complex. The first challenge is to determine if a Digital Twin should be global or local, and multi-domain or thematic. For example, some domains such as Climate or Weather will require a global Digital Twin or Digital Twin capabilities while science areas such as Biodiversity might be more local. We can also envision that multiple thematic ESDTs, e.g., Air Quality, Wildfires, Hydrology could be federated or provide input to other ESDTs, either on a regional level or to a more global ESDT. Overall, we can imagine a future “web” of Digital Twins co-existing in a hierarchy or in a network, and capable of being connected or federated depending on the needs. This last point brings up the very important challenge of interoperability, including standards and protocols that will need to be built into these systems from the beginning. Each individual digital twin would have full flexibility in internal construction but would need standards-based interfaces (input and output) or hooks to make it compatible with others. Another challenge when building digital twins will be to decide how to organize each digital replica. Based on the applications targeted by the DT under implementation, various amounts and types of raw data, Analysis Ready Data (ARD) and information will need to be incorporated. Depending on the required latencies and needs of the users, various solutions can be considered, including Data Cubes, Data Lakes, pointers, or computing information on demand. We envision that each ESDT will choose a solution adapted to its specific objectives. Another important challenge is the type(s) of visualization that will be used, as well as the level of interactivity and refresh rate that will be required. Again, this will depend on the objectives of the ESDT, but also on the various users’ needs. In most cases, several types of visualizations and human interfaces will need to be offered depending on the projected users of that system. In parallel to the challenges highlighted above, there are also many tools and technologies that will need to be developed or improved for all types of digital twins. Among those are improved machine learning technologies, for example providing explainability, but also ML techniques for causality and providing a better integration of physics models. Additionally, reliable uncertainty quantification methods will be needed for all ESDT components, from validating data fusion and assimilation to assessing the accuracy of ML models and weighing the values of decisions supported by those systems. This presentation introduces the ESDT concept, presents several ESDT use cases, and a proposed ESDT architecture framework, as well as various technologies being developed by the Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program."

Earth Science Remote Sensing; Information Systems↗

DOE OSTI2024

Topological Data Analysis for Particulate Gels

Soft gels, formed via the self-assembly of particulate materials, exhibit intricate multiscale structures that provide them with flexibility and resilience when subjected to external stresses. Here, this work combines particle simulations and topological data analysis (TDA) to characterize the complex multiscale structure of soft gels. Our TDA analysis focuses on the use of the Euler characteristic, which is an interpretable and computationally scalable topological descriptor that is combined with filtration operations to obtain information on the geometric (local) and topological (global) structure of soft gels. We reduce the topological information obtained with TDA using principal component analysis (PCA) and show that this provides an informative low-dimensional representation of the gel structure. We use the proposed computational framework to investigate the influence of gel preparation (e.g., quench rate, volume fraction) on soft gel structure and to explore dynamic deformations that emerge under oscillatory shear in various response regimes (linear, nonlinear, and flow). Our analysis provides evidence of the existence of hierarchical structures in soft gels, which are not easily identifiable otherwise. Moreover, our analysis reveals direct correlations between topological changes of the gel structure under deformation and mechanical phenomena distinctive of gel materials, such as stiffening and yielding. In summary, we show that TDA facilitates the mathematical representation, quantification, and analysis of soft gel structures, extending traditional network analysis methods to capture both local and global organization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Neural network interatomic potential-driven analysis of phase stability in Ti–V alloys at the atomistic scale

The evolution of the ω phase in titanium–vanadium (Ti–V) alloys is critical for their mechanical properties, particularly in aerospace and biomedical applications. Here, this study employs a Rapid Artificial Neural Network (RANN) potential to model the ω phase evolution at the atomistic level, demonstrating a high degree of consistency with experimental observations, unlike the Modified Embedded Atom Method (MEAM), which fails to capture this phase transformation accurately. RANN simulations replicate key phenomena such as the nucleation of α precipitates at ω/β interfaces and accurate lattice orientations, enhancing our understanding of phase stability and transformation kinetics. The findings affirm that RANN potentials can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of complex material behaviors, offering a powerful tool for designing advanced materials with tailored properties such as solute effect in various stacking fault energies. This approach not only bridges the gap between theoretical predictions and empirical data but also sets a new direction for future research in materials science, emphasizing the integration of machine learning techniques in the development and optimization of new alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Plant-Soil Relationships Influence Observed Trends Between Manganese and Carbon Across Biomes

Manganese (Mn) is an essential plant micronutrient that plays a critical role in the litter decomposition by oxidizing and degrading complex organic molecules. Previous studies report a negative correlation between Mn concentrations and carbon (C) storage in organic horizons and suggest that high Mn concentrations in leaf litter reduce soil C storage in forest ecosystems, presumably by stimulating the oxidation of lignin by fungal enzymes. Yet, the relationship between Mn and C in the litter layer and organic soil remains poorly understood and restricted to a few biomes, hampering our ability to improve mechanistic understanding of soil C accumulation. Here, to examine plant-soil interactions that underlie observed relationships between Mn and C across a wide range of biomes, we extracted biogeochemical data reported for plants and soils from the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) database. We found that increased C and nitrogen (N) storage in organic horizons were associated with declines in Mn concentrations across diverse ecosystems at the continental scale, and this relationship was associated with the degree of organic matter decomposition (i.e., O i , O e , and O a ). Carbon and N stocks were more strongly correlated with Mn than with climatic variables (i.e., temperature and precipitation). Foliar Mn was strongly correlated with foliar lignin, and both these parameters increased with a decrease in soil pH, indicating links between soil pH, foliar chemistry, and litter decomposability. Our observations suggest that increased Mn bioavailability and accumulation in foliage under moderately acidic soil conditions support fungal decomposition of lignin-rich litter and contributes to lower soil C stocks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Kilonova light-curve interpolation with neural networks

Kilonovae are the electromagnetic transients created by the radioactive decay of freshly synthesized elements in the environment surrounding a neutron star merger. To study the fundamental physics in these complex environments, kilonova modeling requires, in part, the use of radiative transfer simulations. The microphysics involved in these simulations results in high computational cost, prompting the use of emulators for parameter inference applications. Utilizing a training set of 22 248 high-fidelity simulations (composed of 412 unique ejecta parameter combinations evaluated at 54 viewing angles), we use a neural network to efficiently train on existing radiative transfer simulations and predict light curves for new parameters in a fast and computationally efficient manner. Our neural network can generate millions of new light curves in under a minute. We discuss our emulator's degree of off-sample reliability and parameter inference of the AT2017gfo observational data. Finally, we discuss tension introduced by multiband inference in the parameter inference results, particularly with regard to the neural network's recovery of viewing angle. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Data Exchange Interface for a Standards Based Data Integration Platform

The modern electrical grid is a complex and a data rich system, requiring several sub-systems to provide the capability and support needed to perform functions such as distributed energy resource management, outage management, and fault location and isolation, to name a few. There is a need to develop software solutions and platforms that provide an integrated infrastructure to allow interoperability between these subsystems, while leveraging the abundant data available from today’s grid. In this paper, we present the development and deployment of an application service to integrate GridAPPS-D which is an open source, standards-based software platform with SurvalentONE, a commonly used DNP3 based ADMS platform that allows operation, monitoring, analysis, restoration, and optimization of network operations. We present details of the integration architecture, including its implementation, and provide results from functional testing of the architecture on a 13 bus IEEE system. The results validate that the integration is successful and is able to provide a two-way exchange of communication and translation between different communication protocols.

Singh, Alka↗

DOE OSTI2021

Verification of Triso Fuel Burnup Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Pebble Bed Reactors are fueled with fuel pebbles that are circulated multiple times through the reactor vessel before discharge. During the normal operation of a PBR, ejected pebbles are returned to the reactor or discharged depending on the fuel burnup and physical condition of the pebbles. The burnup measurement is usually based on detected radiation signatures of fission products accumulated in the pebble fuel over burnup. Previous research has shown that height of photopeaks of fission products, such as 134 Cs, 137 Cs, 154 Eu, etc., can be used independently or in combination to infer or predict the level of burnup in the fuel. However, it remains challenging to measure such complex sources due to self-shielding effects, strong radiation background and intervening materials. Another operational challenge is the required high throughput of burnup measurement, which necessitates limited measurement time and thus impacts quality of measured gamma-ray spectra. Hence, advanced spectral analysis methods are needed to analyze the noisy gamma spectra and predict the burnup values. We propose to use machine learning (ML) method to interpret gamma-ray spectra and predict the burnup values of the pebbles. ML has achieved widespread success and adoption across a few domains that require pattern recognition and analysis in varied data types. In this work, we apply three proven ML approaches - multilayer perceptrons, convolutional neural networks, and transformers - to the task of predicting fuel burnup from measured gamma spectra, and compile a dataset of simulated spectra for training and validation of the ML models. In this paper, we will discuss the network architecture of these three ML approaches and compare the performance of the simplest of these (MLP) to a standard linear regression.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Gene network centrality analysis identifies key regulators coordinating day-night metabolic transitions in Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 despite limited accuracy in predicting direct regulator-gene interactions

Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 is a model organism for studying circadian regulation and bioproduction, where precise temporal control of metabolism significantly impacts photosynthetic efficiency and CO 2 -to-bioproduct conversion. Despite extensive research on core clock components, our understanding of the broader regulatory network orchestrating genome-wide metabolic transitions remains incomplete. We address this gap by applying machine learning tools and network analysis to investigate the transcriptional architecture governing circadian-controlled gene expression. While our approach showed moderate accuracy in predicting individual transcription factor-gene interactions - a common challenge with real expression data - network-level topological analysis successfully revealed the organizational principles of circadian regulation. Our analysis identified distinct regulatory modules coordinating day-night metabolic transitions, with photosynthesis and carbon/nitrogen metabolism controlled by day-phase regulators, while nighttime modules orchestrate glycogen mobilization and redox metabolism. Through network centrality analysis, we identified potentially significant but previously understudied transcriptional regulators: HimA as a putative DNA architecture regulator, and TetR and SrrB as potential coordinators of nighttime metabolism, working alongside established global regulators RpaA and RpaB. This work demonstrates how network-level analysis can extract biologically meaningful insights despite limitations in predicting direct regulatory interactions. The regulatory principles uncovered here advance our understanding of how cyanobacteria coordinate complex metabolic transitions and may inform metabolic engineering strategies for enhanced photosynthetic bioproduction from CO 2 .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

Use of Business Intelligence Tools in the DSN

JPL has operated the Deep Space Network (DSN) on behalf of NASA since the 1960's. Over the last two decades, the DSN budget has generally declined in real-year dollars while the aging assets required more attention, and the missions became more complex. As a result, the DSN budget has been increasingly consumed by Operations and Maintenance (O&M), significantly reducing the funding wedge available for technology investment and for enhancing the DSN capability and capacity. Responding to this budget squeeze, the DSN launched an effort to improve the cost-efficiency of the O&M. In this paper we: elaborate on the methodology adopted to understand "where the time and money are used"-surprisingly, most of the data required for metrics development was readily available in existing databases-we have used commercial Business Intelligence (BI) tools to mine the databases and automatically extract the metrics (including trends) and distribute them weekly to interested parties; describe the DSN-specific effort to convert the intuitive understanding of "where the time is spent" into meaningful and actionable metrics that quantify use of resources, highlight candidate areas of improvement, and establish trends; and discuss the use of the BI-derived metrics-one of the most fascinating processes was the dramatic improvement in some areas of operations when the metrics were shared with the operators-the visibility of the metrics, and a self-induced competition, caused almost immediate improvement in some areas. While the near-term use of the metrics is to quantify the processes and track the improvement, these techniques will be just as useful in monitoring the process, e.g. as an input to a lean-six-sigma process.

Metrics↗

DOE OSTI2021

VERIFICATION OF TRISO FUEL BURNUP USING MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS

Pebble Bed Reactors are fueled with fuel pebbles that are circulated multiple times through the reactor vessel before discharge. During the normal operation of a PBR, ejected pebbles are returned to the reactor or discharged depending on the fuel burnup and physical condition of the pebbles. The burnup measurement is usually based on detected radiation signatures of fission products accumulated in the pebble fuel over burnup. Previous research has shown that height of photopeaks of fission products, such as 134Cs, 137Cs, 154Eu, etc., can be used independently or in combination to infer or predict the level of burnup in the fuel. However, it remains challenging to measure such complex sources due to self-shielding effects, strong radiation background and intervening materials. Another operational challenge is the required high throughput of burnup measurement, which necessitates limited measurement time and thus impacts quality of measured gamma-ray spectra. Hence, advanced spectral analysis methods are needed to analyze the noisy gamma spectra and predict the burnup values. We propose to use machine learning (ML) method to interpret gamma-ray spectra and predict the burnup values of the pebbles. ML has achieved widespread success and adoption across a few domains that require pattern recognition and analysis in varied data types. In this work, we apply three proven ML approaches - multilayer perceptrons, convolutional neural networks, and transformers - to the task of predicting fuel burnup from measured gamma spectra, and compile a dataset of simulated spectra for training and validation of the ML models. In this paper, we will discuss the network architecture of these three ML approaches and compare the performance of the simplest of these (MLP) to a standard linear regression.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine-learning predictions of the shale wells’ performance

The ultra-low permeability nature of shale reservoirs leads to an extended linear flow and necessitates horizontal wells with multi-stage engineered fractures to efficiently extract hydrocarbons resources. These artificially-generated and naturally-occurring fractures form complex networks that create complex flow regimes which control oil production. These fractures are neither identical nor equally-spaced, which leads to a production profile with a masked onset of the boundary-dominated flow. The combination of the extended linear flow with the indeterminate onset of the boundary-dominated flow challenges the current deterministic analytic approaches to forecast the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). In this work, we propose a novel machine-learning approach which overcomes these challenges and provides reliable EUR estimates based on field-wide analyses. We implement a novel unsupervised machine learning (ML) methodology, which allows for automatic identification of the optimal number of features (signals) present in the data based on non-negative matrix/tensor factorization coupled with k-means clustering incorporating regularization and physics constraints. In the presented analyses, the input data to the ML algorithm is the available (public) production history from the field collected at existing unconventional reservoirs. We validate our approach through hindcasting of the production data, where we achieved an excellent agreement. In addition, our approach is able to identify the poorly-performing wells, which could benefit from early refracing. Our approach provides fast and accurate estimations of the well performance without presumptions about the state of the well or the flow regime.

03 NATURAL GAS↗