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At least 1,333 records · Page 74
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Pyrocumulonimbus Events Over British Columbia in 2017: An Ensemble Model Study of Parameter Sensitivities and Climate Impacts of Wildfire Smoke in the Stratosphere

Abstract The Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events over British Columbia in 2017 were observed in the lower stratosphere for about 8–10 months after the smoke injections. Several previous studies used global climate models to investigate the physical parameters for the 2017 pyroCb events, but the conclusions show strong model dependency. In this study, we use the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and complete an ensemble of runs exploring three injection parameters: smoke aerosol mass, the percentage of black carbon within the smoke aerosols, and plume injection height. Additionally, we consider the heterogeneous reaction of ozone and primary organic matter. According to the satellite daily observed aerosol optical depth (AOD), we find that the best ensemble member is the simulation with 0.4 Tg of smoke, 3% of which is black carbon, a 13.5 km smoke injection height, and a 10 −5 probability factor of the heterogeneous reaction. Besides AOD, we examine the ensemble score based on the metrics used in previous studies: the metrics of the extinction coefficient at 18 km altitude and the maximum plume height. The conclusion of the best estimate of the injection parameters for 2017 pyroCb events shows strong not only model but also evaluation metric dependency. We use the Random Forest machine learning technique to quantify the relative importance of each parameter in accurately simulating the 2017 pyroCb events and find that the injection height is the most critical feature, no matter which metric is used to score the ensemble members.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Base State Influences on South Asian Monsoon Processes Derived From Analyses of E3SMv2 and CESM2

Abstract The effects of differences in climate base state are related to processes associated with the present‐day South Asian monsoon simulations in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) and the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Though tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean base state sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are over 1°C cooler in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2, and there is an overall reduction of Indian sector precipitation, the pattern of South Asian monsoon precipitation is similar in the two models. Monsoon‐ENSO teleconnections, dynamically linked by the large‐scale east‐west atmospheric circulation, are reduced in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2. In E3SMv2, this is related to cooler tropical SSTs and ENSO amplitude that is less than half that in CESM2. Comparison to a tropical Pacific pacemaker experiment shows, to a first order, that the base state SSTs and ENSO amplitude contribute roughly equally to lower amplitude monsoon‐ENSO teleconnections in E3SMv2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mass‐Conserving Downscaling of Climate Model Precipitation Over Mountainous Terrain for Water Resource Applications

Abstract A mass‐conserving method to downscale precipitation from global climate models (GCMs) using sub‐grid‐scale topography and modeled 700‐mb wind direction is presented. Runoff is simulated using a stand‐alone hydrological model, with this and several other methods as inputs, and compared to runoff simulated using historical observations over the western contiguous United States. Results suggest the mitigation of grid‐scale biases is more critical than downscaling for some regions with large wet biases (e.g., the Great Basin and Upper Colorado). In other regions (e.g., the Pacific Northwest) the new method produces more realistic sub‐grid‐scale variability in runoff compared to unadjusted GCM output and a simpler downscaling method. The presented method also brings the runoff centroid timing closer to that simulated with observations for all subregions examined.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Potential of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Reduce the Climatic Risks of Explosive Volcanic Eruptions

Sulfur-rich volcanic eruptions happen sporadically. If Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) were to be deployed, it is likely that explosive volcanic eruptions would happen during such a deployment. Here we use an ensemble of Earth System Model simulations to show how changing the injection strategy post-eruption could be used to reduce the climate risks of a large volcanic eruption; the risks are also modified even without any change to the strategy. For a medium-size eruption (10 Tg-SO 2 ) comparable to the SAI injection rate, the volcanic-induced cooling would be reduced if it occurs under SAI, especially if artificial sulfur dioxide injections were immediately suspended. Alternatively, suspending injection only in the eruption hemisphere and continuing injection in the opposite would reduce shifts in precipitation in the tropical belt and thus mitigate eruption-induced drought. Finally, we show that for eruptions much larger than the SAI deployment, changes in SAI strategy would have minimal effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ship-based Observations and Climate Model Simulations of Cloud Phase over the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean (SO) clouds exert a significant influence on the Earth’s radiation budget. Here we analyzed ship-based remote sensing observations of SO clouds over a five-month long DOE ARM Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation and Clouds over the Southern Oceans (MARCUS) field campaign to better understand cloud phase variability. We developed a method to classify eight categories of hydrometeors (ice, liquid, mixed phase, rain, drizzle, snow, aerosols, and clear sky) based on measurements of lidar, radar and radiosondes. Cloud thermodynamic phases (liquid, ice and mixed phase) at coarser scales were further derived to compare with the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) simulation and the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC 2 ) instrument simulator. For a scale-aware comparison with climate model simulations, we found that spatially averaging the raw remote sensing data (e.g., backscatter, reflectivity) results in increased cloud cover and cloud liquid, whereas, directly averaging cloud phase from higher to lower resolution maintains clear air regions and is thus recommended for in-cloud frequency comparisons. For cloud thermodynamic phases in stratiform clouds, the E3SM underestimates cloud ice and overestimates cloud liquid at temperatures between -40 and 0°C. When latitudes increase, both observations and simulations show a transition of dominant phase from liquid to ice for cloud tops as well as for the entire cloud columns, but the model underestimation of ice phase is more severe at higher latitudes. Such model bias is unlikely caused by spatial scale differences or lack of heterogeneity in cloud vertical structure in the simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Cloud Feedback Components in Observations and Their Representation in Climate Models

This study quantifies the contribution of individual cloud feedbacks to the total short-term cloud feedback in satellite observations over the period 2002–2014 and evaluates how they are represented in climate models. The observed positive total cloud feedback is primarily due to positive high-cloud altitude, extratropical high- and low-cloud optical depth, and land cloud amount feedbacks partially offset by negative tropical marine low-cloud feedback. Seventeen models from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project are analyzed. The models generally reproduce the observed moderate positive short-term cloud feedback. However, compared to satellite estimates, the models are systematically high-biased in tropical marine low-cloud and land cloud amount feedbacks and systematically low-biased in high-cloud altitude and extratropical high- and low-cloud optical depth feedbacks. Errors in modeled short-term cloud feedback components identified in this analysis highlight the need for improvements in model simulations of the response of high clouds and tropical marine low clouds. Our results suggest that skill in simulating interannual cloud feedback components may not indicate skill in simulating long-term cloud feedback components.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stratospheric Climate Anomalies and Ozone Loss Caused by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption

We report the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption in January 2022 injected unprecedented amounts of water vapor (H 2 O) and a moderate amount of the aerosol precursor sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) into the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropical stratosphere. The H 2 O and aerosol perturbations have persisted during 2022 and early 2023 and dispersed throughout the atmosphere. Observations show large-scale SH stratospheric cooling, equatorward shift of the Antarctic polar vortex and slowing of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Satellite observations show substantial ozone reductions over SH winter midlatitudes that coincide with the largest circulation anomalies. Chemistry-climate model simulations forced by realistic HTHH inputs of H 2 O and SO 2 qualitatively reproduce the observed evolution of the H 2 O and aerosol plumes over the first year, and the model exhibits stratospheric cooling, circulation changes and ozone effects similar to observed behavior. The agreement demonstrates that the observed stratospheric changes are caused by the HTHH volcanic influences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Storm-Associated Precipitation and Its Extremes Using Observational Data Sets and Climate Model Short-Range Hindcasts

Heavy precipitation, often associated with weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones (ETCs), atmospheric rivers (ARs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), can cause significant socio-economic loss. Here, in this study, we apply atmospheric feature trackers to quantify the contributions of these storm types in observational data sets and climate model short-range hindcasts. We generate a global hourly storm data set at 0.25° spatial resolution covering 2006–2020, based on the tracking results from TempestExtremes and Python FLEXible object TRacKeR. Our analyses show that these four storm types account for 67% of global annual mean precipitation and 82% of top 1% precipitation extremes, with MCSs mainly over the tropics, and ARs and ETCs over the midlatitudes. The percentage of precipitation contributions from these storms also show strong seasonality over many geographical locations. We further apply the tracking results to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) short-range hindcasts and evaluate how well these storms are simulated. The evaluation show that E3SM, with ∼1° resolution, significantly underestimates storm-associated precipitation totals and extremes, especially for MCSs in the tropics. Our analysis also suggests that model fails to capture the correct mean diurnal phases and amplitude of MCS precipitation. This phenomenon-based approach provides a better understanding of precipitation characteristics and can lead to enhanced model evaluation by revealing underlying problems in model physics related to precipitation processes associated with the heavy-precipitating storms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Urbanization in China on the East Asian Summer Monsoon as Revealed by Two Global Climate Models

Abstract The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), vulnerable to anthropogenic activities, exerts profound impacts on precipitation in East Asia. In recent decades, China has been experiencing rapid urbanization. It has not yet reached a consensus on its influences on EASM. Here, we introduce satellite‐derived urban impervious areas of China during 1985–2017 into two global climate models with contrasting biases of climatological EASM simulation. Both models consistently show that urbanization weakens EASM by increasing surface friction drag. The increased surface roughness reduces climatological southerly winds in the concentrated urbanization area. As a result, moisture convergence occurs south of the concentrated urbanization area with ascending motion, while moisture divergence with descending motion appears to the north, resulting in the precipitation anomalies of “southern flood and northern drought.” The dominant role of urban dynamic forcing in regulating EASM is confirmed by reducing urban roughness to the level of croplands in sensitivity experiments. As urban dynamic forcing is largely mitigated, the urbanization impact mainly driven by urban thermal forcing conversely strengthens EASM due to enhanced land‐sea thermal contrast via urbanization‐induced warming. Spatial patterns and magnitudes of the urbanization‐induced EASM weakening vary between the two models due to disparities in their simulations of urban thermodynamic forcing and atmospheric adjustments. These results underscore the robust weakening effect of urbanization on EASM by urban friction drag and document uncertainties in the related spatial pattern and magnitude resulting from model discrepancies.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Weathering Incongruence in Mountainous Mediterranean Climates Recorded by Stream Lithium Isotope Ratios

Lithium isotope ratios (δ 7 Li) of rivers are increasingly serving as a diagnostic of the balance between chemical and physical weathering contributions to overall landscape denudation rates. Here, we show that intermediate weathering intensities and highly enriched stream δ 7 Li values typically associated with lowland floodplains can also describe small upland watersheds subject to cool, wet climates. This behavior is revealed by stream δ 7 Li between +22.4 and +23.5‰ within a Critical Zone observatory located in the Cévennes region of southern France, where dilute stream solute concentrations and significant atmospheric deposition otherwise mask evidence of incongruence. The water-rock reaction pathways underlying this behavior are quantified through a multicomponent, isotope-enabled reactive transport model. Using geochemical characterization of soil profiles, bedrock, and long-term stream samples as constraints, we evolve the simulation from an initially unweathered granite to a steady state weathering profile which reflects the balance between (a) fluid infiltration and drainage and (b) bedrock uplift and soil erosion. Enriched stream δ 7 Li occurs because Li is strongly incorporated into actively precipitating secondary clay phases beyond what prior laboratory experiments have suggested. Chemical weathering incongruence is maintained despite relatively slow reaction rates and moderate clay accumulation due to a combination of two factors. First, reactive primary mineral phases persist across the weathering profile and effectively “shield” the secondary clays from resolubilization due to their greater solubility. Second, the clays accumulating in the near-surface profile are relatively mature weathering byproducts. These factors promote characteristically low total dissolved solute export from the catchment despite significant input of exogenous dust.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Emergent Constraint Approach for Refining Regional Climate Model Projections of Peak Flow Timing

Abstract Global climate models (GCMs) are unable to produce detailed runoff conditions at the basin scale. Assumptions are commonly made that dynamical downscaling can resolve this issue. However, given the large magnitude of the biases in downscaled GCMs, it is unclear whether such projections are credible. Here, we use an ensemble of dynamically downscaled GCMs to evaluate this question in the Sierra‐Cascade mountain range of the western US. Future projections across this region are characterized by earlier seasonal shifts in peak flow, but with substantial inter‐model uncertainty (−25 ± 34.75 days, 95% confidence interval (CI)). We apply the emergent constraint (EC) method for the first time to dynamically downscaled projections, leading to a 39% (−28.25 ± 20.75 days, 95% CI) uncertainty reduction in future peak flow timing. While the constrained results can differ from bias corrected projections, the EC is based on GCM biases in historical peak flow timing and has a strong physical underpinning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Separate the Role of Southern and Northern Extra‐Tropical Pacific in Tropical Pacific Climate Variability

Abstract Observational and modeling studies have elucidated the influential role played by the southern and northern extratropical Pacific (SEP and NEP) forcing in shaping dynamics of tropical Pacific climate variability. However, the relative importance of the NEP and SEP and the timescale on which they impact the tropics remain unclear. Using a linear inverse model (LIM) that selectively incorporates or excludes tropical‐extratropical coupling, we find a reduction in tropical interannual variability (∼40%) and low‐frequency (sub‐decadal to decadal) variability in the southeastern tropical Pacific region (∼70%) in the absence of SEP. Conversely, the absence of NEP yields no significant impact on tropical interannual variability but markedly diminishes low‐frequency variability in the central tropical Pacific region (∼70%). LIM and statistic diagnostics on CMIP6 models show the low‐frequency to total variability ratio in the tropical Pacific depending on their NEP and SEP representation. Models with more (less) low‐frequency power tend to show stronger NEP (SEP) dynamics.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contrast and Predictability of Island‐Scale El Niño Influences on Hawaii Wave Climate

Abstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences ocean wave activity across the Pacific, but its effects on island shores are modulated by local weather and selective sheltering of multi‐modal seas. Utilizing 41 years of high‐resolution wave hindcasts, we decipher the season‐ and locality‐dependent connections between ENSO and wave patterns around the Hawaiian Islands. The north and west‐facing shores, exposed to energetic northwest swells during boreal winters, experience the most pronounced ENSO‐related variability, with increased high‐surf activity during El Niño years. While the year‐round trade wind waves exhibit moderate correlation with ENSO, the basin‐wide climate influence is masked by locally accelerated trade winds in channels and around large headlands. The remarkable global‐to‐local pathway through the high‐resolution hindcast enables development of an ENSO‐based semi‐empirical wave model to statistically describe and predict severe wave conditions on vulnerable shores with potential application in coastal risk management and hazard mitigation for Pacific Islands and beyond.

Zhao, Sen [Department of Atmospheric Sciences Scho↗
DOE OSTI2025

Can We Rely on Satellite Visible/Infrared Microphysical Retrievals of Boundary Layer Clouds in Partially Cloudy Scenes? Implications for Climate Research

This study addresses the longstanding question of the reliability of gridded visible/infrared satellite cloud properties in partially cloudy scenes. By using in-situ cloud probes and airborne Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) observations, we analyze bias changes in satellite retrievals from the Spinning Enhanced Visible Infra-Red Imager (SEVIRI) geostationary sensor during the ORACLES campaign. Biases in cloud optical depth (τ) and droplet effective radius (r e ) modestly change for cloud area fraction greater than 35%. The agreement between SEVIRI and RSP r e substantially improves when the retrievals are averaged after removing pixels with τ < 3.0, yielding biases indistinguishable from overcast scenes. In addition, satellite and RSP show an excellent agreement for closed- and open-cell stratocumulus clouds, showing that the satellite retrievals capture spatial changes of r e , and confirming that satellites can faithfully reproduce real physical features for optically thick and partially cloudy scenes. We demonstrate that a simple methodology can minimize uncertainties in satellite-based climate studies.

Painemal, David [NASA Langley Research Center, Ham↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of Resolution on Heavy‐Precipitating Storms in Climate Model Hindcasts

The present study investigates the impact of horizontal resolutions on heavy‐precipitating storms using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version2 (E3SMv2) at low (∼100 km, LR) and high (∼25 km, HR) resolutions through short‐range hindcasts. The short‐range hindcast approach ensures a faithful comparison of model resolution in simulating the same storm events under a controlled large‐scale environment. Using a phenomenon‐based framework, we attribute precipitation to specific storm types: tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Our findings show that E3SM hindcasts with both HR and LR configurations significantly underestimate storm‐associated precipitation intensity but overestimate precipitation from other sources. Furthermore, both HR and LR hindcasts face significant challenges in accurately simulating extreme precipitation events, particularly over MCS hotspots. Nevertheless, HR simulations capture more detailed and intense precipitation patterns with an improved representation of storm dynamics. HR hindcasts produce 16% more storm precipitation compared to LR. For precipitation extremes, HR simulates a 33% higher 99th percentile precipitation magnitudes compared to LR, and most of the increment comes from these four heavy‐precipitating storm types. The increase in precipitation mainly comes from stratiform precipitation rather than convective precipitation. The improvement in HR simulations varies across different storm types with TC showing the largest improvement. The phenomenon‐based approach provides important insights into precipitation simulations especially for extremes. Our results emphasize the need for further refinement in high‐resolution models to improve the accuracy of precipitation predictions, which is crucial for better understanding and mitigating climate change impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Framework to Project the Permafrost Fate With Explicit Quantification of Soil Property and Future Climate Uncertainties

This study develops a novel general framework to project the permafrost fate with rigorous uncertainty quantification to assess dominant sources. Borehole temperature records from three sites in the Russian western Arctic are used to constrain the uncertainty of a high‐fidelity freeze‐thaw model. Projections from 9 Global Climate Models (GCM) are stochastically downscaled to generate future trajectories of surface ground heat flux. Under the two emission scenarios SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, the projected average thawing depths by 2100 vary from 0.4 to 14.4 m or 2.1 to 17.7 m, and the increase in the top 10 m average temperature from 2015 to 2100 is 1.2–2.7°C or 1.9–3.0°C. The results show that the freeze‐thaw model uncertainty can sometimes dominate over that of GCM outputs, calling for site‐specific information to improve model accuracy. The framework is applicable for understanding permafrost degradation and related uncertainties at larger scales.

Bayesian downscaling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increased Asian Aerosols Contribute to Historical Climate Change in Antarctica

Since the 1980s, anthropogenic aerosols (AAs) have decreased in North America and Europe, while they have continued to increase in East and South Asia. Meanwhile, climate change in Antarctica has exhibited a zonally asymmetric pattern. However, few studies have linked the two. In this study, we conduct fully coupled model experiments and find that Antarctica responds more significantly to Asian AAs than to those from North America and Europe. Increased Asian AAs induce a tri‐polar anomaly pattern in Antarctica via a poleward propagating Rossby wave train. This pattern is characterized by warmer temperature and less sea ice in the Amundsen‐Bellingshausen Seas, and cooler temperature and more sea ice in regions on its both flanks. Our findings highlight the importance of remote forcing, such as AAs in the Northern Hemisphere, in driving historical changes in Antarctica through atmospheric teleconnection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Global plant trait relationships extend to the climatic extremes of the tundra biome

The majority of variation in six traits critical to the growth, survival and reproduction of plant species is thought to be organised along just two dimensions, corresponding to strategies of plant size and resource acquisition. However, it is unknown whether global plant trait relationships extend to climatic extremes, and if these interspecific relationships are confounded by trait variation within species. We test whether trait relationships extend to the cold extremes of life on Earth using the largest database of tundra plant traits yet compiled. We show that tundra plants demonstrate remarkably similar resource economic traits, but not size traits, compared to global distributions, and exhibit the same two dimensions of trait variation. Three quarters of trait variation occurs among species, mirroring global estimates of interspecific trait variation. Plant trait relationships are thus generalizable to the edge of global trait-space, informing prediction of plant community change in a warming world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗