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At least 1,333 records · Page 74

Salt Waste Processing Facility project lessons learned: Acquisition through construction - 15518

The Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF), located at the Savannah River Site (SRS) in Aiken, South Carolina, is a multi-billion dollar Liquid Radioactive Waste (LRW) processing facility that represents the keystone for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-EM clean-up mission at SRS. The SWPF facilitates DOE-EM clean-up at SRS by decontaminating the salt waste, which is the dominant volumetric component in the LRW tanks, thereby allowing the cleaned salt waste to be removed from the tanks and stabilized into an approved grout-based final waste form. The small volume of removed radionuclides is sent to the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) for vitrification. Emptied LRW storage tanks are then grouted into an approved configuration for final closure. The SWPF project is currently 100% complete with design, 80% complete with construction, and 10% complete with commissioning. To date there have been numerous lessons learned with regard to project acquisition, design, procurement, construction, and quality assurance (QA) approaches (both good practices and mistakes) that are considered to be of significant value in improving the state of major project execution within the DOE-EM clean-up program as well as to the wider DOE enterprise. An overview of the current SWPF project status is provided and key lessons learned in the aforementioned areas are presented relative to improving future DOE major project execution performance. Specific areas to be addressed include strategies to optimize integration of design and nuclear safety, constructability tools for design and construction synchronization, commercial grade dedication (CGD) approaches to mitigate atrophy in the nuclear supply chain, and QA perspectives to facilitate effective and efficient project execution. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Magnet Design Considerations for Fusion Nuclear Science Facility

The Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF) is a nuclear confinement facility that provides a fusion environment with components of the reactor integrated together to bridge the technical gaps of burning plasma and nuclear science between the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) and the demonstration power plant (DEMO). Compared with ITER, the FNSF is smaller in size but generates much higher magnetic field, i.e., 30 times higher neutron fluence with three orders of magnitude longer plasma operation at higher operating temperatures for structures surrounding the plasma. Input parameters to the magnet design from system code analysis include magnetic field of 7.5 T at the plasma center with a plasma major radius of 4.8 m and a minor radius of 1.2 m and a peak field of 15.5 T on the toroidal field (TF) coils for the FNSF. Both low-temperature superconductors (LTS) and high-temperature superconductors (HTS) are considered for the FNSF magnet design based on the state-of-the-art fusion magnet technology. The higher magnetic field can be achieved by using the high-performance ternary restacked-rod process Nb3Sn strands for TF magnets. The circular cable-in-conduit conductor (CICC) design similar to ITER magnets and a high-aspect-ratio rectangular CICC design are evaluated for FNSF magnets, but low-activation-jacket materials may need to be selected. The conductor design concept and TF coil winding pack composition and dimension based on the horizontal maintenance schemes are discussed. Neutron radiation limits for the LTS and HTS superconductors and electrical insulation materials are also reviewed based on the available materials previously tested. The material radiation limits for FNSF magnets are defined as part of the conceptual design studies for FNSF magnets.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Standard High Solids Vessel Design De-inventory Simulant Qualification

The Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) is working to develop a Standard High Solids Vessel Design (SHSVD) process vessel. To support testing of this new design, WTP engineering staff requested that a Newtonian simulant be developed that would represent the de-inventory (residual high-density tank solids cleanout) process. Its basis and target characteristics are defined in 24590-WTP-ES-ENG-16-021 and implemented through PNNL Test Plan TP-WTPSP-132 Rev. 1.0. This document describes the de-inventory Newtonian carrier fluid (DNCF) simulant composition that will satisfy the basis requirement to mimic the density (1.18 g/mL ± 0.1 g/mL) and viscosity (2.8 cP ± 0.5 cP) of 5 M NaOH at 25 °C.1 The simulant viscosity changes significantly with temperature. Therefore, various solution compositions may be required, dependent on the test stand process temperature range, to meet these requirements. Table ES.1 provides DNCF compositions at selected temperatures that will meet the density and viscosity specifications as well as the temperature range at which the solution will meet the acceptable viscosity tolerance.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A stop-restart solid propellant study with salt quench

Experiments were conducted to gain insight into the unsatisfactory performance of the salt quench system of solid propellants in earlier studies. Nine open-air salt spray tests were conducted and high-speed cinematographic coverage was obtained of the events. It is shown that the salt spray by the detonator is generally a two-step process yielding two different fractions. The first fraction consists of finely powdered salt and moves practically unidirectionally at a high velocity (thousand of feet per second) while the second fraction consists of coarse particles and moves randomly at a low velocity (a few feet per second). Further investigation is required to verify the speculation that a lower quench charge ratio (weight of salt/propellant burning area) than previously employed may lead to an efficient quench

Kumar, R. N.↗

Strutjet Matures to Support Propulsion Needs in the 2000+ World

The Strutjet, Aerojet's Rocket Based Combined Cycle (RBCC) concept, was discussed in a previous ISABE paper as an enabling propulsion concept for single stage to orbit applications. This paper describes the technical progress of the Strutjet since 1996 together with a rationale why RBCC engines in general and the Strutjet in particular, lend themselves uniquely to systems having the ability to expand current space and also open new global "rapid delivery" markets. In particular, the paper substantiates the claims why for certain missions RBCC powered vehicles can be operated at higher margins than all rocket systems, and why within the family of conceivable RBCC systems the Strutjet excels due to its unique architecture and design features. A special emphasis is given to the selection of the engine's ram/scram mode design point because only that mode can add significantly to the mission effective Isp. The thrust produced by an airbreathing engine is directly related to the mass of air processed. This air is captured by the inlet and compressed to raise the pressure for combustion and subsequent expansion. The net accelerating force is the difference between the gross thrust and total vehicle drag (including the spill drag). This total drag is highest at low speeds when the gross thrust is lowest. When the net accelerating force is low, most of the fuel burned is wasted overcoming the vehicle drag. Higher thrust is necessary to perform the mission. One method is to leave the rockets on longer but this results in much higher propellant consumption.

Siebenhaar, A.↗

CRYOGENIC UPPER STAGE SYSTEM SAFETY

NASA s Exploration Initiative will require development of many new systems or systems of systems. One specific example is that safe, affordable, and reliable upper stage systems to place cargo and crew in stable low earth orbit are urgently required. In this paper, we examine the failure history of previous upper stages with liquid oxygen (LOX)/liquid hydrogen (LH2) propulsion systems. Launch data from 1964 until midyear 2005 are analyzed and presented. This data analysis covers upper stage systems from the Ariane, Centaur, H-IIA, Saturn, and Atlas in addition to other vehicles. Upper stage propulsion system elements have the highest impact on reliability. This paper discusses failure occurrence in all aspects of the operational phases (Le., initial burn, coast, restarts, and trends in failure rates over time). In an effort to understand the likelihood of future failures in flight, we present timelines of engine system failures relevant to initial flight histories. Some evidence suggests that propulsion system failures as a result of design problems occur shortly after initial development of the propulsion system; whereas failures because of manufacturing or assembly processing errors may occur during any phase of the system builds process, This paper also explores the detectability of historical failures. Observations from this review are used to ascertain the potential for increased upper stage reliability given investments in integrated system health management. Based on a clear understanding of the failure and success history of previous efforts by multiple space hardware development groups, the paper will investigate potential improvements that can be realized through application of system safety principles.

Smith, R. Kenneth↗

A Fully Non-metallic Gas Turbine Engine Enabled by Additive Manufacturing

The Non-Metallic Gas Turbine Engine project, funded by NASA Aeronautics Research Institute (NARI), represents the first comprehensive evaluation of emerging materials and manufacturing technologies that will enable fully nonmetallic gas turbine engines. This will be achieved by assessing the feasibility of using additive manufacturing technologies for fabricating polymer matrix composite (PMC) and ceramic matrix composite (CMC) gas turbine engine components. The benefits of the proposed effort include: 50 weight reduction compared to metallic parts, reduced manufacturing costs due to less machining and no tooling requirements, reduced part count due to net shape single component fabrication, and rapid design change and production iterations. Two high payoff metallic components have been identified for replacement with PMCs and will be fabricated using fused deposition modeling (FDM) with high temperature capable polymer filaments. The first component is an acoustic panel treatment with a honeycomb structure with an integrated back sheet and perforated front sheet. The second component is a compressor inlet guide vane. The CMC effort, which is starting at a lower technology readiness level, will use a binder jet process to fabricate silicon carbide test coupons and demonstration articles. The polymer and ceramic additive manufacturing efforts will advance from monolithic materials toward silicon carbide and carbon fiber reinforced composites for improved properties. Microstructural analysis and mechanical testing will be conducted on the PMC and CMC materials. System studies will assess the benefits of fully nonmetallic gas turbine engine in terms of fuel burn, emissions, reduction of part count, and cost. The proposed effort will be focused on a small 7000 lbf gas turbine engine. However, the concepts are equally applicable to large gas turbine engines. The proposed effort includes a multidisciplinary, multiorganization NASA - industry team that includes experts in ceramic materials and CMCs, polymers and PMCs, structural engineering, additive manufacturing, engine design and analysis, and system analysis.

manufacturing↗

Conceptual Design Optimization of an Augmented Stability Aircraft Incorporating Dynamic Response Performance Constraints

This research focused on incorporating stability and control into a multidisciplinary de- sign optimization on a Boeing 737-class advanced concept called the D8.2b. A new method of evaluating the aircraft handling performance using quantitative evaluation of the sys- tem to disturbances, including perturbations, continuous turbulence, and discrete gusts, is presented. A multidisciplinary design optimization was performed using the D8.2b transport air- craft concept. The con guration was optimized for minimum fuel burn using a design range of 3,000 nautical miles. Optimization cases were run using xed tail volume coecients, static trim constraints, and static trim and dynamic response constraints. A Cessna 182T model was used to test the various dynamic analysis components, ensuring the analysis was behaving as expected. Results of the optimizations show that including stability and con- trol in the design process drastically alters the optimal design, indicating that stability and control should be included in conceptual design to avoid system level penalties later in the design process.

Welstead, Jason↗

Repackaging of High Fissile TRU Waste at the Transuranic Waste Processing Center - 13240

Twenty-six drums of high fissile transuranic (TRU) waste from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) operations were declared waste in the mid-1980's and placed in storage with the legacy TRU waste inventory for future treatment and disposal at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Repackaging and treatment of the waste at the TRU Waste Packaging Center (TWPC) will require the installation of additional equipment and capabilities to address the hazards for handling and repackaging the waste compared to typical Contact Handled (CH) TRU waste that is processed at the TWPC, including potential hydrogen accumulation in legacy 6M/2R packaging configurations, potential presence of reactive plutonium hydrides, and significant low energy gamma radiation dose rates. All of the waste is anticipated to be repackaged at the TWPC and certified for disposal at WIPP. The waste is currently packaged in multiple layers of containers which presents additional challenges for repackaging activities due to the potential for the accumulation of hydrogen gas in the container headspace in quantities than could exceed the Lower Flammability Limit (LFL). The outer container for each waste package is a stainless steel 0.21 m{sup 3} (55-gal) drum which contains either a 0.04 m{sup 3} or 0.06 m{sup 3} (10-gal or 15-gal) 6M drum. The inner 2R container in each 6M drum is ∼12 cm (5 in) outside diameter x 30-36 cm (12-14 in) long and is considered to be a > 4 liter sealed container relative to TRU waste packaging criteria. Inside the 2R containers are multiple configurations of food pack cans, pipe nipples, and welded capsules. The waste contains significant quantities of high burn-up plutonium oxides and metals with a heavy weight percentage of higher atomic mass isotopes and the subsequent in-growth of significant quantities of americium. Significant low energy gamma radiation is expected to be present due to the americium in-growth. Radiation dose rates on inner containers are estimated to be 1-3 mSv/hr (100-300 mrem/hr) with an unshielded dose rate on the waste itself of over 10 mSv/hr (1 rem/hr). Additional equipment to be installed at the TWPC will include a new perma-con enclosure and a shielded/inert glovebox in the process building to repackage and stabilize the waste. All of the waste will be repackaged into Standard Pipe Overpacks. Most of the waste (21 of the 26 drums) is expected to be repackaged at the food-pack can level (i.e. the food-pack cans will not be opened). Five of the incoming waste containers are expected to be repackaged at the primary waste level. Three of the containers exceed the 200 gram Pu-239 Fissile Gram Equivalent (FGE) limit for the Standard Pipe Overpack. These three containers will be repackaged down to the primary waste level and divided into eight Standard Pipe Overpacks for shipment to WIPP. Two containers must be stabilized to eliminate any reactive plutonium hydrides that may be present. These containers will be opened in the inert, shielded glovebox, and the remaining corroded plutonium metal converted to a stable oxide form by using a 600 deg. C tube furnace with controlled oxygen feed in a helium carrier gas. The stabilized waste will then be packaged into two Standard Pipe Overpacks. Design and build out activities for the additional repackaging capabilities at the TWPC are scheduled to begin in Fiscal Year 2013 with repackaging, stabilization, and certification activities scheduled to begin in Fiscal Year 2014. Following repackaging and stabilization activities, the Standard Pipe Overpacks will be certified for disposal at WIPP utilizing Non-Destructive Examination (NDE) to verify the absence of prohibited items and Non-Destructive Assay (NDA) to verify the isotopic content under the TWPC WIPP certification program implemented by the Central Characterization Project (CCP). (authors)

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Chemical Characteristics of Continental Outflow from Asia to the Troposphere over the Western Pacific Ocean during September - October 1991: Results from PEM-West A

An important objective of the Pacific Exploratory Mission-West A (PEM-West A) was the chemical characterization of the outflow of tropospheric trace gases and aerosol particles from the Asian continent over the western Pacific Ocean. This paper summarizes the chemistry of this outflow during the period September - October 1991. The vertical distributions of CO, C2H6, and NO(x), showed regions of outflow at altitudes below 2 km and from 8 to 12 km. Mixing ratios of CO were approx. equals 130 parts per billion by volume (ppbv), approx. equals 1OOO parts per trillion by volume (pptv) for C2H6, and approx. equals 100 pptv for NO(x) in both of these regions. Direct outflow of Asian industrial materials was clearly evident at altitudes below 2 km, where halocarbon tracer compounds such as CH3CCl3 and C2Cl4 were enhanced about threefold compared to aged Pacific air. The source attribution of species outflowing from Asia to the Pacific at 8-12 km altitude was not straightforward. Above 10 km altitude there were substantial enhancements of NO(y), O3, CO, CH4, SO2, C2H6, C3H8, C2H2, and aerosol Pb-210 but not halocarbon industrial tracers. These air masses were rich in nitrogen relative to sulfur and contained ratios of C2H2/CO and C3H8/C2H6 (approx. equals l.5 and 0.1 respectively) indicative of several- day-old combustion emissions. It is unclear if these emissions were of Asian origin, or if they were rapidly transported to this region from Europe by the high wind speeds in this tropospheric region (60 - 70 m/s). The significant cyclonic activity over Asia at this time could have transported to the upper troposphere emissions from biomass burning in Southeast Asia or emissions from the extensive use of various biomass materials for cooking and space heating. Apparently, the emissions in the upper troposphere were brought there by wet convective systems since water-soluble gases and aerosols were depleted in these air masses. Near 9 km altitude there was a distinct regional outflow that appeared to be heavily influenced by biogenic processes on the Asian continent, especially from the southeastern area. These air masses contained CH4 in excess of 1800 ppbv, while CO2 and OCS were significantly depleted (349 - 352 ppmv and 450 - 500 pptv, respectively). This signature seemingly reflected CH4 emissions from wetlands and rice paddies with coincident biospheric uptake of tropospheric CO2 and OCS.

Talbot, R. W.↗

Thermodynamic Cycle Analysis of Magnetohydrodynamic-Bypass Hypersonic Airbreathing Engines

The prospects for realizing a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) bypass hypersonic airbreathing engine are examined from the standpoint of fundamental thermodynamic feasibility. The MHD-bypass engine, first proposed as part of the Russian AJAX vehicle concept, is based on the idea of redistributing energy between various stages of the propulsion system flow train. The system uses an MHD generator to extract a portion of the aerodynamic heating energy from the inlet and an MHD accelerator to reintroduce this power as kinetic energy in the exhaust stream. In this way, the combustor entrance Mach number can be limited to a specified value even as the flight Mach number increases. Thus, the fuel and air can be efficiently mixed and burned within a practical combustor length, and the flight Mach number operating envelope can be extended. In this paper, we quantitatively assess the performance potential and scientific feasibility of MHD-bypass engines using a simplified thermodynamic analysis. This cycle analysis, based on a thermally and calorically perfect gas, incorporates a coupled MHD generator-accelerator system and accounts for aerodynamic losses and thermodynamic process efficiencies in the various engin components. It is found that the flight Mach number range can be significantly extended; however, overall performance is hampered by non-isentropic losses in the MHD devices.

Litchford, R. J.↗

Non-Toxic Orbiter Maneuvering System (OMS) and Reaction Control System

NASA is pursuing the technology and advanced development of a non-toxic (NT) orbital maneuvering system (OMS) and reaction control system (RCS) for shuttle upgrades, RLV, and reusable first stages. The primary objectives of the shuttle upgrades program are improved safety, improved reliability, reduced operations time and cost, improved performance or capabilities, and commonality with future space exploration needs. Non-Toxic OMS/RCS offers advantages in each of these categories. A non-toxic OMS/RCS eliminates the ground hazards and the flight safety hazards of the toxic and corrosive propellants. The cost savings for ground operations are over $24M per year for 7 flights, and the savings increase with increasing flight rate up to $44M per year. The OMS/RCS serial processing time is reduced from 65 days to 13 days. The payload capability can be increased up to 5100 Ibms. The non-toxic OMS/RCS also provides improved space station reboost capability up to 20 nautical miles over the current toxic system of 14 nautical miles. A NT OMS/RCS represents a clear advancement in the SOA over MMH/NTO. Liquid oxygen and ethanol are clean burning, high-density propellants that provide a high degree of commonality with other spacecraft subsystems including life support, power, and thermal control, and with future human exploration and development of space missions. The simple and reliable pressure-fed design uses sub-cooled liquid oxygen at 250 to 350 psia, which allows a propellant to remain cryogenic for longer periods of time. The key technologies are thermal insulation and conditioning techniques are used to maintain the sub-cooling. Phase I successfully defined the system architecture, designed an integrated OMS/RCS propellant tank, analyzed the feed system, built and tested the 870 lbf RCS thrusters, and tested the 6000 lbf OMS engine. Phase 11 is currently being planned for the development and test of full-scale prototype of the system in 1999 and 2000

Hurlbert, Eric A.↗

Ground-based SMART-COMMIT Measurements for Studying Aerosol and Cloud Properties

From radiometric principles, it is expected that the retrieved properties of extensive aerosols and clouds from reflected/emitted measurements by satellite (and/or aircraft) should be consistent with those retrieved from transmitted/emitted radiance observed at the surface. Although space-borne remote sensing observations cover large spatial domain, they are often plagued by contamination of surface signatures. Thus, ground-based in-situ and remote-sensing measurements, where signals come directly from atmospheric constituents, the sun, and/or the Earth-atmosphere interactions, provide additional information content for comparisons that confirm quantitatively the usefulness of the integrated surface, aircraft, and satellite data sets. The development and deployment of SMARTCOMMIT (Surface-sensing Measurements for Atmospheric Radiative Transfer - Chemical, Optical & Microphysical Measurements of In-situ Troposphere) mobile facilities are aimed for the optimal utilization of collocated ground-based observations as constraints to yield higher fidelity satellite retrievals and to determine any sampling bias due to target conditions. To quantify the energetics of the surface-atmosphere system and the atmospheric processes, SMART-COMMIT instruments fall into three categories: flux radiometer, radiance sensor and in-situ probe. In this paper, we will demonstrate the capability of SMART-COMMIT in recent field campaigns (e.g., CRYSTAL-FACE, UAE 2, BASEASIA, NAMMA) that were designed and executed to study the compelling variability in temporal scale of both anthropogenic and natural aerosols (e.g., biomass-burning smoke, airborne dust) and cirrus clouds. We envision robust approaches in which well-collocated ground-based measurements and space-borne observations will greatly advance our knowledge of extensive aerosols and clouds.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗

Measuring Radiant Emissions from Entire Prescribed Fires with Ground, Airborne and Satellite Sensors RxCADRE 2012

Characterising radiation from wildland fires is an important focus of fire science because radiation relates directly to the combustion process and can be measured across a wide range of spatial extents and resolutions. As part of a more comprehensive set of measurements collected during the 2012 Prescribed Fire Combustion and Atmospheric Dynamics Research (RxCADRE) field campaign, we used ground, airborne and spaceborne sensors to measure fire radiative power (FRP) from whole fires, applying different methods to small (2 ha) and large (.100 ha) burn blocks. For small blocks (n1/46), FRP estimated from an obliquely oriented long-wave infrared (LWIR) camera mounted on a boom lift were compared with FRP derived from combined data from tower-mounted radiometers and remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS). For large burn blocks (n1/43), satellite FRP measurements from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensors were compared with near-coincident FRP measurements derived from a LWIR imaging system aboard a piloted aircraft. We describe measurements and consider their strengths and weaknesses. Until quantitative sensors exist for small RPAS, their use in fire research will remain limited. For oblique, airborne and satellite sensors, further FRP measurement development is needed along with greater replication of coincident measurements, which we show to be feasible.

fire radiative power↗

Modeling of thermal and kinetic processes in non-equilibrium plasma ignition applied to a lean combustion engine

In recent years novel ignition systems have been developed to enable stable and efficient engine operations with lean mixtures. Among them, radio-frequency corona ignition systems create discharges that involve a much wider region compared to traditional spark, and produce non equilibrium plasma with high levels of active radicals and excited species. These devices considerably increase the early flame growth speed and extend stable operating limits. With the aim of expanding the knowledge on high efficiency lean-burn SI engines, this paper investigates and compares the combustion development generated by spark and corona ignitions through computational fluid dynamics, within the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes framework for turbulence modeling. In order to simultaneously take thermal and chemical effects into account, the Perfectly Stirred Reactor combustion model is used. Experimental data are also collected for validation in an optical access engine, for different mixture levels, from stoichiometric to very lean. Furthermore, the faster burn rate generated by the corona system in the initial stage of the combustion is well predicted by the simulations, in all the relative air-fuel ratio conditions. Remarkably, as the mixture becomes lean, simulations are able to capture the non-linear transition from fast to slow kernel growth, before a self-sustainable flame propagation is established. This correlates very well with the measured engine cyclic variability and the corresponding steep change in the duration of the flame kernel formation. Ultimately, this study highlights the important role of the atomic oxygen, as active radical, in promoting and enhancing the combustion initiated by a corona discharge, in addition to the volumetric ignition effect. By contrast, the validated simulations allow to explain that the high-temperature thermal plasma generated in a traditional spark discharge is insensitive to kinetic aspects.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Does feroxyhyte occur on the surface of Mars

The physical, chemical and paragenetic properties of delta-FeOOH in the form of the mineral feroxyhyte are discussed in relation to the possible composition of the red-brown surface coating of Mars. It is pointed out that the deep-brown ferromagnetic FeOOH polymorph will adhere to magnets such as those on the Viking Lander at Mars ambient temperatures and exhibits spectral maxima in the range 2.95-3.4 m similar to those observed in remote sensing spectra of Mars. The redox properties of the formation of feroxyhyte are shown to be compatible with postulated processes on the Martian surface, and with the results of some of the Viking biological experiments. It is thus concluded that feroxyhyte has the magnetic, chemisorption, spectral, redox and paragenetic properties to suggest its consideration as a possible component of the Martian surface.

Burns, R. G.↗

Development of a New Data Tool for Computing Launch and Landing Availability with Respect to Surface Weather

The Marshall Space Flight Center Natural Environments Branch has a long history of expertise in the modeling and computation of statistical launch availabilities with respect to weather conditions. Their existing data analysis product, the Atmospheric Parametric Risk Assessment (APRA) tool, computes launch availability given an input set of vehicle hardware and/or operational weather constraints by calculating the climatological probability of exceeding the specified constraint limits, APRA has been used extensively to provide the Space Shuttle program the ability to estimate impacts that various proposed design modifications would have to overall launch availability. The model accounts for both seasonal and diurnal variability at a single geographic location and provides output probabilities for a single arbitrary launch attempt. Recently, the Shuttle program has shown interest in having additional capabilities added to the APRA model, including analysis of humidity parameters, inclusion of landing site weather to produce landing availability, and concurrent analysis of multiple sites, to assist in operational landing site selection. In addition, the Constellation program has also expressed interest in the APRA tool, and has requested several additional capabilities to address some Constellation-specific issues, both in the specification and verification of design requirements and in the development of operations concepts. The combined scope of the requested capability enhancements suggests an evolution of the model beyond a simple revision process. Development has begun for a new data analysis tool that will satisfy the requests of both programs. This new tool, Probabilities of Atmospheric Conditions and Environmental Risk (PACER), will provide greater flexibility and significantly enhanced functionality compared to the currently existing tool.

Burns, K. Lee↗

Informing climate adaptation strategies using ecological simulation models and spatial decision support tools

Introduction: Forest landscapes offer resources and ecosystem services that are vital to the social, economic, and cultural well-being of human communities, but managing for these provisions can require socially and ecologically relevant trade-offs. We designed a spatial decision support model to reveal trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services in a large eastern Cascade Mountain landscape in Washington State, USA. Methods: We used process-based forest landscape (LANDIS-II) and hydrology (DHSVM) models to compare outcomes associated with 100 years of simulated forest and wildfire dynamics for two management scenarios, Wildfire only and Wildfire + Treatments. We then examined the strength and spatial distribution of potential treatment effects and trends in a set of resources and ecosystem services over the simulation period. Results: We found that wildfire area burned increased over time, but some impacts could be mitigated by adaptation treatments. Treatment benefits were not limited to treated areas. Interestingly, we observed neighborhood benefits where fire spread and severity were reduced not only in treated patches but in adjacent patches and landscapes as well, creating potential synergies among some resource benefits and services. Ordinations provided further evidence for two main kinds of outcomes. Positive ecological effects of treatments were greatest in upper elevation moist and cold forests, while positive benefits to human communities were aligned with drier, low- and mid-elevation forests closer to the wildland urban interface. Discussion: Our results contribute to improved understanding of synergies and tradeoffs linked to adaptation and restoration efforts in fire-prone forests and can be used to inform management aimed at rebuilding resilient, climate-adapted landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗