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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Uncertainty Analysis in Space Radiation Protection

Space radiation is comprised of high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, protons, and secondary radiation including neutrons. The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are a major limitation to the length of space missions, the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches, and application of the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. For long duration space missio ns, risks may approach radiation exposure limits, therefore the uncertainties in risk projections become a major safety concern and methodologies used for ground-based works are not deemed to be sufficient. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. We discuss NASA s approach to space radiation uncertainty assessments and applications for the International Space Station (ISS) program and design studies of future missions to Mars and other destinations. Several features of NASA s approach will be discussed. Radiation quality descriptions are based on the properties of radiation tracks rather than LET with probability distribution functions (PDF) for uncertainties derived from radiobiology experiments at particle accelerators. The application of age and gender specific models for individual astronauts is described. Because more than 90% of astronauts are never-smokers, an alternative risk calculation for never-smokers is used and will be compared to estimates for an average U.S. population. Because of the high energies of the GCR limits the benefits of shielding and the limited role expected for pharmaceutical countermeasures, uncertainty reduction continues to be the optimal approach to improve radiation safety for space missions.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

HIV drug resistance during antiretroviral therapy scale-up in Uganda, 2012–19: a population-based, longitudinal study

Background With scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, increasing pretreatment HIV drug resistance has been reported; however, the broader effect of ART expansion on population-level resistance patterns remains insufficiently quantified. We aimed to estimate the longitudinal prevalence of drug resistance and resistance-conferring mutations. Methods This study used data collected as part of the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), an open population-based census and cohort study conducted in southern Uganda. At each survey round, residents aged 15–49 years are invited to participate and receive a structured questionnaire that obtains sociodemographic, behavioural, and health information, including self-reported past and current ART use. Voluntary HIV testing is conducted using a rapid test algorithm and a venous blood sample. People with HIV provide samples for viral load quantification and deep sequencing. We analysed RCCS survey, HIV viral load, and deep sequencing (which was used to predict resistance) data from five survey rounds. The key outcomes were the population prevalence of viraemic people with HIV with non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI), protease inhibitor, or multiclass resistance among all participants (regardless of HIV serostatus) in the 2015 and 2017 surveys. Prevalence of class-specific resistance and resistance-conferring substitutions were estimated using robust log-Poisson regression. Findings Between Aug 10, 2011, and Nov 4, 2020, there were 43 361 participants in the RCCS and 7923 (18·27%) people with HIV. Over five survey rounds, 93 622 participant visits occurred, among which 17 460 (18·65%) were from people with HIV. Over the analysis period, the median age of study participants remained similar (28 years [22–35] in 2012 and 29 years [21–38] in 2019). Sufficient data were available to reliably genotype 4072 (90·03%) of 4523 participant visits from 3407 people with HIV for at least one drug. Overall population prevalence of resistance contributed by viraemic pretreatment people with HIV decreased between 2012 and 2017 from 0·56% (95% CI 0·42–0·75) to 0·25% (0·18–0·33) for NNRTI and from 0·24% (0·15–0·37) to 0·05% (0·02–0·10) for NRTI (prevalence ratio 0·44 [0·29–0·68] for NNRTI and 0·21 [0·09–0·47] for NRTI). Between 2012 and 2017, NNRTI resistance among viraemic pretreatment people with HIV increased from 4·86% (3·69–6·42) to 9·61% (7·27–12·7; prevalence ratio 1·98 [1·34–2·91]). The prevalence of NNRTI and NRTI resistance was substantially higher among viraemic treatment-experienced people with HIV (51·49% [46·24–57·34] for NNRTI and 36·46% [30·06–44·22] for NRTI in 2017) than among pretreatment people with HIV. NNRTI and NRTI resistance was predominantly attributable to rtK103N and rtM184V. inT97A was observed at a similar prevalence among viraemic treatment-experienced (9·96% [6·41–15·48]) and viraemic pretreatment (10·56% [8·01–13·93]) people with HIV; no major dolutegravir resistance mutations were observed. Interpretation Despite rising NNRTI resistance among pretreatment people with HIV, overall population prevalence of pretreatment HIV drug-resistant viraemia decreased due to increasing ART uptake and viral suppression. This finding underscores the crucial role of achieving and maintaining high ART coverage in reducing transmission of drug-resistant HIV. The high prevalence of mutations conferring resistance to components of first-line ART regimens among viraemic people with HIV is potentially concerning. Funding National Institutes of Health, Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

Regional dust deposits on Mars - Physical properties, age, and history

This paper presents a description of the use of Viking infrared thermal mapper (IRTM), earth-based radar, and visual observations for the study of the existence of regional dust deposits. It is pointed out that these observations provide estimates of particle size, rock abundance, surface texture, thermal emissivity, and albedo. These estimates can be used to characterize surface deposits and to determine the degree of surface mantling. Attention is given to the regolith properties, atmospheric dust properties, and a model for formation of low-inertia regions. It is found that global dust storms deposit currently approximately 25 microns of material per year in the equatorial region. Over geologic time this value may vary from 0 to 250 microns due to variations in atmospheric conditions produced by orbital variations.

Christensen, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Dynamics of the intermediate-age elliptical LMC cluster NGC 1978

BV CCD images and echelle spectra of 35 giants are used to examine the internal dynamics of the elliptical LMC cluster NGC 1978. Projected radii for the giants range from 1.4 to 20.0, and the mean estimated stellar velocity uncertainty is 1.6 km/s; the mean cluster velocity is 293.3 +/-1.0 km/s. BV profiles were constructed to projected radii of greater than 100 pc. The single-mass models provided better agreement with the surface photometry. Among multimass models, there is slightly better agreement seen for the models with shallow mass functions. The nonrotating model was found to be in better agreement with the kinematic data, although the rotating models could not be completely ruled out. No morphological evidence for a merger was found.

Fischer, Philippe↗
DOE OSTI2018

Effects of incomplete residential histories on studies of environmental exposure with application to childhood leukaemia and background radiation

Highlights: • Residential exposures are most important for many environmental carcinogens. • Direct measurement in all occupied homes is the gold standard but may be impractical. • About half of cases of childhood cancer have not moved between birth and diagnosis. • Most house movements are short-range; exposures in successive houses are correlated. • Analyses using exposure estimation from a single address are informative. When evaluating environmental exposures, residential exposures are often most relevant. In most countries, it is impossible to establish full residential histories. In recent publications, childhood leukaemia and background radiation have been studied with and without full residential histories. This paper investigates the consequences of lacking such full data. Data from a nationwide Finnish Case-Control study of Childhood Leukaemia and gamma rays were analysed. This included 1093 children diagnosed with leukaemia in Finland in 1990–2011. Each case was matched by gender and year of birth to three controls. Full residential histories were available. The dose estimates were based on outdoor background radiation measurements. The indoor dose rates were obtained with a dwelling type specific conversion coefficient and the individual time-weighted mean red bone marrow dose rates were calculated using age-specific indoor occupancy and the age and gender of the child. Radiation from Chernobyl fallout was included and a 2-year latency period assumed. The median separation between successive dwellings was 3.4 km and median difference in red bone marrow dose 2.9 nSv/h. The Pearson correlation between the indoor red bone marrow dose rates of successive dwellings was 0.62 (95% CI 0.60, 0.64). The odds ratio for a 10 nSv/h increase in dose rate with full residential histories was 1.01 (95% CI 0.97, 1.05). Similar odds ratios were calculated with dose rates based on only the first dwelling (1.02, 95% CI 0.99, 1.05) and only the last dwelling (1.00, 95% CI 0.98, 1.03) and for subjects who had lived only in a single dwelling (1.05, 95% CI 0.98, 1.10). Knowledge of full residential histories would always be the option of choice. However, due to the strong correlation between exposure estimates in successive dwellings and the uncertainty about the most relevant exposure period, estimation of overall exposure level from a single address is also informative. Error in dose estimation is likely to cause some degree of classical measurement error resulting in bias towards the null.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2014

Greenhouse gas emissions from landfill leachate treatment plants: A comparison of young and aged landfill

Highlights: • Young and aged leachate works accounted for 89.1% and 10.9% of 33.35 Gg CO{sub 2} yr{sup −1}. • Fresh leachate owned extremely low ORP and high organic matter content. • Strong CH{sub 4} emissions occurred in the fresh leachate ponds, but small in the aged. • N{sub 2}O emissions became dominant in the treatment units of both systems. • 8.45–11.9% of nitrogen was removed as the form of N{sub 2}O under steady-state. - Abstract: With limited assessment, leachate treatment of a specified landfill is considered to be a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In our study, the cumulative GHG emitted from the storage ponds and process configurations that manage fresh or aged landfill leachate were investigated. Our results showed that strong CH{sub 4} emissions were observed from the fresh leachate storage pond, with the fluxes values (2219–26,489 mg C m{sup −2} h{sup −1}) extremely higher than those of N{sub 2}O (0.028–0.41 mg N m{sup −2} h{sup −1}). In contrast, the emission values for both CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O were low for the aged leachate tank. N{sub 2}O emissions became dominant once the leachate entered the treatment plants of both systems, accounting for 8–12% of the removal of N-species gases. Per capita, the N{sub 2}O emission based on both leachate treatment systems was estimated to be 7.99 g N{sub 2}O–N capita{sup −1} yr{sup −1}. An increase of 80% in N{sub 2}O emissions was observed when the bioreactor pH decreased by approximately 1 pH unit. The vast majority of carbon was removed in the form of CO{sub 2}, with a small portion as CH{sub 4} (<0.3%) during both treatment processes. The cumulative GHG emissions for fresh leachate storage ponds, fresh leachate treatment system and aged leachate treatment system were 19.10, 10.62 and 3.63 Gg CO{sub 2} eq yr{sup −1}, respectively, for a total that could be transformed to 9.09 kg CO{sub 2} eq capita{sup −1} yr{sup −1}.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2016

Validation and Expected Error Estimation of Suomi-NNP VIIRS Aerosol Optical Thickness and Angstrom Exponent with AERONET

The new-generation polar-orbiting operational environmental sensor, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on board the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite, provides critical daily global aerosol observations. As older satellite sensors age out, the VIIRS aerosol product will become the primary observational source for global assessments of aerosol emission and transport, aerosol meteorological and climatic effects, air quality monitoring, and public health. To prove their validity and to assess their maturity level, the VIIRS aerosol products were compared to the spatiotemporally matched Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)measurements. Over land, the VIIRS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) environmental data record (EDR) exhibits an overall global bias against AERONET of 0.0008 with root-mean-square error(RMSE) of the biases as 0.12. Over ocean, the mean bias of VIIRS AOT EDR is 0.02 with RMSE of the biases as 0.06.The mean bias of VIIRS Ocean Angstrom Exponent (AE) EDR is 0.12 with RMSE of the biases as 0.57. The matchups between each product and its AERONET counterpart allow estimates of expected error in each case. Increased uncertainty in the VIIRS AOT and AE products is linked to specific regions, seasons, surface characteristics, and aerosol types, suggesting opportunity for future modifications as understanding of algorithm assumptions improves. Based on the assessment, the VIIRS AOT EDR over land reached Validated maturity beginning 23 January 2013; the AOT EDR and AE EDR over ocean reached Validated maturity beginning 2 May 2012, excluding the processing error period 15 October to 27 November 2012. These findings demonstrate the integrity and usefulness of the VIIRS aerosol products that will transition from S-NPP to future polar-orbiting environmental satellites in the decades to come and become the standard global aerosol data set as the previous generations missions come to an end.

Huang, Jingfeng↗
DOE OSTI2019

A harmonized longitudinal biomarkers and cognition database for assessing the natural history of preclinical Alzheimer's disease from young adulthood and for designing prevention trials

Abstract Introduction Large longitudinal biomarkers database focusing on middle age is needed for Alzheimer's disease (AD) prevention. Methods Data for cerebrospinal fluid analytes, molecular imaging of cerebral fibrillar β‐amyloid with positron emission tomography, magnetic resonance imaging–based brain structures, and clinical/cognitive outcomes were harmonized across eight AD biomarker studies. Statistical power was estimated. Results The harmonized database included 7779 participants with clinical/cognitive data: 3542 were 18∼65 years at the baseline, 5865 had longitudinal cognitive data for a median of 4.7 years, 2473 participated in the cerebrospinal fluid studies (906 had longitudinal data), 2496 participated in the magnetic resonance imaging studies (1283 had longitudinal data), and 1498 participated in the positron emission tomography amyloid studies (849 had longitudinal data). The database provides adequate power for detecting early biomarker changes, and demonstrates the feasibility of AD prevention trials on middle‐aged individuals. Discussion The harmonized database is an optimum resource to design AD prevention trials decades before symptomatic onset.

Xiong, Chengjie↗
NASA NTRS2014

Astronaut Bone Medical Standards Derived from Finite Element (FE) Models of QCT Scans from Population Studies

This work was accomplished in support of the Finite Element [FE] Strength Task Group, NASA Johnson Space Center [JSC], Houston, TX. This group was charged with the task of developing rules for using finite-element [FE] bone-strength measures to construct operating bands for bone health that are relevant to astronauts following exposure to spaceflight. FE modeling is a computational tool used by engineers to estimate the failure loads of complex structures. Recently, some engineers have used this tool to characterize the failure loads of the hip in population studies that also monitored fracture outcomes. A Directed Research Task was authorized in July, 2012 to investigate FE data from these population studies to derive these proposed standards of bone health as a function of age and gender. The proposed standards make use of an FE-based index that integrates multiple contributors to bone strength, an expanded evaluation that is critical after an astronaut is exposed to spaceflight. The current index of bone health used by NASA is the measurement of areal BMD. There was a concern voiced by a research and clinical advisory panel that the sole use of areal BMD would be insufficient to fully evaluate the effects of spaceflight on the hip. Hence, NASA may not have a full understanding of fracture risk, both during and after a mission, and may be poorly estimating in-flight countermeasure efficacy. The FE Strength Task Group - composed of principal investigators of the aforementioned population studies and of FE modelers -donated some of its population QCT data to estimate of hip bone strength by FE modeling for this specific purpose. Consequently, Human Health Countermeasures [HHC] has compiled a dataset of FE hip strengths, generated by a single FE modeling approach, from human subjects (approx.1060) with ages covering the age range of the astronauts. The dataset has been analyzed to generate a set of FE strength cutoffs for the following scenarios: a) Qualify an applicant for astronaut candidacy, b) Qualify an astronaut for a long-duration (LD) mission, c) Qualify a veteran LD astronaut for a second LD mission, and d) Establish a non-permissible, minimum hip strength following a given mission architecture. This abstract will present the FE-based standards accepted by the FE Strength Task Group for its recommendation to HHC in January 2015.

Sibonga, J. D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photovoltaics module reliability for the terawatt age

Photovoltaics (PV), or solar electricity generation, has become the cheapest form of energy in many locations worldwide and, combined with energy storage, has the potential to satisfy most of our electricity needs. PV has grown at an annual compounded growth rate of approximately 30% in the last three decades. Solar energy systems will continue their impressive growth in distributed energy, microgrids, and utility scale, as efforts are made for dependable electricity in an age with increasing extreme weather. However, within this remarkable success lies a new challenge. The growth curve, combined with rapid product innovation and scale up, means that the majority of PV systems are new, without the three years of performance data that have been required in the past to estimate product lifetime. PV reliability has to address this challenge. In this review we present a brief summary of PV reliability starting with brief historical synopsis, detailing some of the technological challenges and present a framework required for long lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Refusal of Curative Radiation Therapy and Surgery Among Patients With Cancer

Purpose: Surgery and radiation therapy represent the only curative options for many patients with solid malignancies. However, despite the recommendations of their physicians, some patients refuse these therapies. This study characterized factors associated with refusal of surgical or radiation therapy as well as the impact of refusal of recommended therapy on patients with localized malignancies. Methods and Materials: We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to identify a population-based sample of 925,127 patients who had diagnoses of 1 of 8 common malignancies for which surgery and/or radiation are believed to confer a survival benefit between 1995 and 2008. Refusal of oncologic therapy, as documented in the SEER database, was the primary outcome measure. Multivariable logistic regression was used to investigate factors associated with refusal. The impact of refusal of therapy on cancer-specific mortality was assessed with Fine and Gray's competing risks regression. Results: In total, 2441 of 692,938 patients (0.4%) refused surgery, and 2113 of 232,189 patients (0.9%) refused radiation, despite the recommendations of their physicians. On multivariable analysis, advancing age, decreasing annual income, nonwhite race, and unmarried status were associated with refusal of surgery, whereas advancing age, decreasing annual income, Asian American race, and unmarried status were associated with refusal of radiation (P<.001 in all cases). Refusal of surgery and radiation were associated with increased estimates of cancer-specific mortality for all malignancies evaluated (hazard ratio [HR], 2.80, 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.59-3.03; P<.001 and HR 1.97 [95% CI, 1.78-2.18]; P<.001, respectively). Conclusions: Nonwhite, less affluent, and unmarried patients are more likely to refuse curative surgical and/or radiation-based oncologic therapy, raising concern that socioeconomic factors may drive some patients to forego potentially life-saving care.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Management Trends and Outcomes for Stage I to II Mantle Cell Lymphoma Using the National Cancer Data Base: Ascertaining the Ideal Treatment Paradigm

Purpose: Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is a rare, albeit aggressive subset of non-Hodgkin lymphoma, resulting in varied treatment approaches. Given the paucity of data defining the optimal management for early-stage MCL, we conducted an analysis using the National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) to identify practice patterns and outcomes. Methods and Materials: The NCDB was queried for patients with stage I to II MCL diagnosed from 1998 to 2012 receiving chemotherapy (CT) or radiation therapy (RT), or both (CT+RT). Univariate and multivariable analyses for factors associated with treatment selection were completed using logistic regression. Propensity scores with inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) were calculated based on the conditional probability of receiving CT+RT. The log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards modeling with IPTW adjustment were conducted for the survival analyses. Results: In total, 2539 patients were identified. The key characteristics were as follows: 69% were male, 71% were aged ≥60 years, 28% had extranodal involvement, and 51% had stage I disease. Of the 2539 patients, 70% underwent CT, 11% underwent RT, and 19% underwent CT+RT. The use of CT+RT decreased from 23.1% to 14.1% in 1998 to 2002 and 2010 to 2012 (P<.001). CT+RT usage was lower for patients with the following characteristics: age ≥60 years, female sex, stage II disease, and the presence of B symptoms. With a median follow-up period of 42.8 months, the unadjusted 3-year overall survival estimates for patients receiving CT, RT, or CT+RT were 67.8%, 72.4%, and 79.8%, respectively (P<.001). After correcting for indication bias through IPTW-adjusted modeling, CT+RT reduced the risk of overall mortality compared with monotherapy (hazard ratio 0.65, P=.029). Conclusions: Although uncommon, patients with stage I-II MCL can have favorable outcomes. Despite a continued decline in the usage of consolidative RT, combined modality therapy improves survival in this cohort compared with monotherapy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Relationships among DNA hypomethylation, Cd, and Pb exposure and risk of cigarette smoking-related urothelial carcinoma

Cigarette smoking and environmental exposure to heavy metals are important global health issues, especially for urothelial carcinoma (UC). However, the effects of cadmium and lead exposure, as well as the levels of DNA hypomethylation, on UC risk are limited. We evaluated the possible exposure sources of Cd and Pb and the relationship among DNA hypomethylation, urinary Cd and Pb levels, and UC risk. We recruited 209 patients with UC and 417 control patients for a hospital-based case–control study between June 2011 and August 2014. We collected environmental exposure-related information with questionnaires. Blood and urine samples were analyzed to measure the Cd and Pb exposure and 5-methyl-2′-deoxycytidine levels as a proxy for DNA methylation. Multivariate logistic regression and 95% confidence intervals were applied to estimate the risk for UC. Study participants with high Cd and Pb exposure in blood or urine had significantly increased risk of UC, especially among the smokers. After adjusting for age and gender, the possible connections of individual cumulative cigarette smoking or herb medicine exposure with the increased levels of Cd and Pb were observed in the controls. Participants with 8.66%–12.39% of DNA hypomethylation had significantly increased risk of UC compared with those with ≥ 12.39% of DNA hypomethylation. Environmental factors including cigarette smoking and herb medicine may contribute to the internal dose of heavy metals levels. Repeat measurements of heavy metals with different study design, detailed dietary information, and types of herb medicine should be recommended for exploring UC carcinogenesis in future studies. - Highlights: • Smoking and herb medicine ingestion is associated with increased urinary Cd and Pb levels. • Urinary levels of Cd and Pb are associated with increased risk of UC. • UC carcinogenesis might have partially resulted from DNA hypomethylation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1977

Classification and time of formation of Martian channels based on Viking data

The reported evaluation of Martian channel characteristics is based on Viking photographs taken from July 1976 to February 1977. The wide variation in crater densities shown by the considered Martian channels strongly implies widely differing ages for both fluviatile and lava channels. Attention is given to age determination methodology, a description of channels and implications for channel formation, surface water under present Martian conditions, surface water under more favorable Martian conditions in the past, channel parameter estimates, and volcanic channels.

Masursky, H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Dynamics modeling for ERBS attitude propagation

The development and evaluation of a model of the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) attitude dynamics for use in attitude determination is described. Attitude rates for the three axis stabilized spacecraft are derived analytically from Euler's equation using modeled disturbance torques and telemetered flight data from control system actuators for computation of the control torques. The modeled rates are used for attitude propagation in a batch least squares attitude estimation algorithm originally designed to use onboard gyro measurements of attitude motion. The capabilities for near fine attitude determination without gyros is important for operational attitude ground support of the aging ERBS spacecraft as two out of three gyro axes have failed. The accuracy of this method of dynamic propagation is strongly dependent on the quality and availability of control system telemetry data. Detailed disturbance torque models are also necessary to accurately model attitude rates. Even with the relatively coarse ERBS control system telemetry, accuracy to within 0.2 deg of gyro propagated reference attitudes is achieved.

Harvie, E.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Evaluation of Data Retention Characteristics for Ferroelectric Random Access Memories (FRAMs)

Data retention and fatigue characteristics of 64 Kb lead zirconate titanate (PZT)-based Ferroelectric Random Access Memories (FRAMs) microcircuits manufactured by Ramtron were examined over temperature range from -85 C to +310 C for ceramic packaged parts and from -85 C to +175 C for plastic parts, during retention periods up to several thousand hours. Intrinsic failures, which were caused by a thermal degradation of the ferroelectric cells, occurred in ceramic parts after tens or hundreds hours of aging at temperatures above 200 C. The activation energy of the retention test failures was 1.05 eV and the extrapolated mean-time-to-failure (MTTF) at room temperature was estimated to be more than 280 years. Multiple write-read cycling (up to 3x10(exp 7)) during the fatigue testing of plastic and ceramic parts did not result in any parametric or functional failures. However, operational currents linearly decreased with the logarithm of number of cycles thus indicating fatigue process in PZT films. Plastic parts, that had more recent date code as compared to ceramic parts, appeared to be using die with improved process technology and showed significantly smaller changes in operational currents and data access times.

Sharma, Ashok K.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Earth Satellite Population Instability: Underscoring the Need for Debris Mitigation

A recent study by NASA indicates that the implementation of international orbital debris mitigation measures alone will not prevent a significant increase in the artificial Earth satellite population, beginning in the second half of this century. Whereas the focus of the aerospace community for the past 25 years has been on the curtailment of the generation of long-lived orbital debris, active remediation of the current orbital debris population should now be reconsidered to help preserve near-Earth space for future generations. In particular, we show in this paper that even if launch operations were to cease today, the population of space debris would continue to grow. Further, proposed remediation techniques do not appear to offer a viable solution. We therefore recommend that, while the aerospace community maintains the current debris-limiting mission regulations and postmission disposal procedures, future emphasis should be placed on finding new remediation technologies for solving this growing problem. Since the launch of Sputnik 1, space activities have created an orbital debris environment that poses increasing impact risks to existing space systems, including human space flight and robotic missions (1, 2). Currently, more than 9,000 Earth orbiting man-made objects (including many breakup fragments), with a combined mass exceeding 5 million kilograms, are tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network and maintained in the US satellite catalog (3-5). Three accidental collisions between cataloged satellites during the period from late 1991 to early 2005 have already been documented (6), although fortunately none resulted in the creation of large, trackable debris clouds. Several studies conducted during 1991-2001 demonstrated, with assumed future launch rates, the unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects (7-13). In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new satellites (i.e., debris) due to collisions exceeds the loss of objects due to orbital decay. NASA s evolutionary satellite population model LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model), developed by the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, is a high fidelity three-dimensional physical model that is capable of simulating the historical satellite environment, as well as the evolution of future debris populations (14, 15). The subject study assumed no rocket bodies and spacecraft were launched after December 2004, and no future disposal maneuvers were allowed for existing spacecraft, few of which currently have such a capability. The rate of satellite explosions would naturally decrease to zero within a few decades as the current satellite population ages. The LEGEND future projection adopts a Monte Carlo approach to simulate future on-orbit explosions and collisions. Within a given projection time step, once the explosion probability is estimated for an intact object, a random number is drawn and compared with the probability to determine if an explosion would occur. A similar procedure is applied to collisions for each pair of target and projectile involved within the same time step. Due to the nature of the Monte Carlo process, multiple projection runs must be performed and analyzed before one can draw reliable and meaningful conclusions from the outcome. A total of fifty, 200-year future projection Monte Carlo simulations were executed and evaluated (16).

Liou, Jer-chyi↗
NASA NTRS2010

Preliminary Estimation of Black Carbon Deposition from Nepal Climate Observatory-Pyramid Data and Its Possible Impact on Snow Albedo Changes Over Himalayan Glaciers During the Pre-Monsoon Season

The possible minimal range of reduction in snow surface albedo due to dry deposition of black carbon (BC) in the pre-monsoon period (March-May) was estimated as a lower bound together with the estimation of its accuracy, based on atmospheric observations at the Nepal Climate Observatory-Pyramid (NCO-P) sited at 5079 m a.s.l. in the Himalayan region. We estimated a total BC deposition rate of 2.89 g m-2 day-1 providing a total deposition of 266 micrograms/ square m for March-May at the site, based on a calculation with a minimal deposition velocity of 1.0 10(exp -4) m/s with atmospheric data of equivalent BC concentration. Main BC size at NCO-P site was determined as 103.1-669.8 nm by correlation analysis between equivalent BC concentration and particulate size distribution in the atmosphere. We also estimated BC deposition from the size distribution data and found that 8.7% of the estimated dry deposition corresponds to the estimated BC deposition from equivalent BC concentration data. If all the BC is deposited uniformly on the top 2-cm pure snow, the corresponding BC concentration is 26.0-68.2 microgram/kg assuming snow density variations of 195-512 kg/ cubic m of Yala Glacier close to NCO-P site. Such a concentration of BC in snow could result in 2.0-5.2% albedo reductions. From a simple numerical calculations and if assuming these albedo reductions continue throughout the year, this would lead to a runoff increases of 70-204 mm of water drainage equivalent of 11.6-33.9% of the annual discharge of a typical Tibetan glacier. Our estimates of BC concentration in snow surface for pre-monsoon season can be considered comparable to those at similar altitude in the Himalayan region, where glaciers and perpetual snow region starts in the vicinity of NCO-P. Our estimates from only BC are likely to represent a lower bound for snow albedo reductions, since a fixed slower deposition velocity was used and atmospheric wind and turbulence effects, snow aging, dust deposition, and snow albedo feedbacks were not considered. This study represents the first investigation about BC deposition on snow from atmospheric aerosol data in Himalayas and related albedo effect is especially the first track at the southern slope of Himalayas.

Yasunari, T. J.↗