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At least 1,333 records · Page 74

COVID-19 pandemic underscores role of green space in urban carbon dynamics

For Detroit Michigan the arrival of COVID-19 led to intensive measures to prevent further spread of the virus resulting in consequent changes in traffic and energy use. Here, we take advantage of these different emission scenarios to explore CO 2 dynamics in a postindustrial city with a declining population and increasing green space. We present atmospheric CO 2 concentration and net urban ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NUE) from a typical eddy covariance system and canopy greenness from a field camera on the Wayne State University campus in midtown Detroit. We categorized our study period (January 18, 2020–July 31, 2020) into three subperiods associated with the state-wide shelter-in-place order. Our results support that the city was a net carbon source throughout the period, particularly during the shelter-in-place period, although reduced traffic lowered CO 2 concentrations and NUE. However, during the post-order period when traffic was highest, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and NUE were lowest, suggesting that the greening of urban vegetation may have greater carbon mitigation potential than lowering anthropogenic carbon emissions through traffic reductions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance evaluation of an anaerobic/aerobic landfill-based digester using yard waste for energy and compost production

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Biochemical methane potential decreased by 83% during the two-stage operation. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Net energy produced was 84.3 MWh or 46 kWh per million metric tons (Mg). Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The average removal efficiency of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) was 96-99%. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The average removal efficiency of non-methane organic compounds (NMOCs) was 68-99%. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The two-stage batch digester proved to be simple to operate and cost-effective. - Abstract: The objective of this study was to evaluate a new alternative for yard waste management by constructing, operating and monitoring a landfill-based two-stage batch digester (anaerobic/aerobic) with the recovery of energy and compost. The system was initially operated under anaerobic conditions for 366 days, after which the yard waste was aerated for an additional 191 days. Off gas generated from the aerobic stage was treated by biofilters. Net energy recovery was 84.3 MWh, or 46 kWh per million metric tons of wet waste (as received), and the biochemical methane potential of the treated waste decreased by 83% during the two-stage operation. The average removal efficiencies of volatile organic compounds and non-methane organic compounds in the biofilters were 96-99% and 68-99%, respectively.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Accelerator-based fusion with a low temperature target

Neutron generators are in use in a number of scientific and commercial endeavors. They function by triggering fusion reactions between accelerated ions (usually deuterons) and a stationary cold target (e.g., containing tritium). This setup has the potential to generate energy. It has been shown that if the energy transfer between injected ions and target electrons is sufficiently small, net energy gain can be achieved. Three possible avenues are: (a) a hot target with high electron temperature, (b) a cold non-neutral target with an electron deficiency, or (c) a cold target with a high Fermi energy. A study of the third possibility is reported in light of recent research that points to a new phase of hydrogen, which is hypothesized to be related to metallic hydrogen. As such, the target is considered to be composed of nuclei and delocalized electrons. The electrons are treated as conduction electrons, with the average minimum excitation energy being approximately equal to 40% of the Fermi energy. The Fermi energy is directly related to the electron density. Preliminary results indicate that if the claimed electron densities in the new phase of hydrogen were achieved in a target, the energy transfer to electrons would be small enough to allow net energy gain.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A comparison of deep-learning-based inpainting techniques for experimental X-ray scattering

The implementation is proposed of image inpainting techniques for the reconstruction of gaps in experimental X-ray scattering data. The proposed methods use deep learning neural network architectures, such as convolutional autoencoders, tunable U-Nets, partial convolution neural networks and mixed-scale dense networks, to reconstruct the missing information in experimental scattering images. In particular, the recovered pixel intensities are evaluated against their corresponding ground-truth values using the mean absolute error and the correlation coefficient metrics. The results demonstrate that the proposed methods achieve better performance than traditional inpainting algorithms such as biharmonic functions. Overall, tunable U-Net and mixed-scale dense network architectures achieved the best reconstruction performance among all the tested algorithms, with correlation coefficient scores greater than 0.9980.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Investigation of Relevant Distribution System Representation With DG for Voltage Stability Margin Assessment

This paper emphasizes the importance of including unbalanced distribution systems for voltage stability studies in power systems. The paper aims to: discuss the various simulation methods for power system analysis; highlight the need for modeling unbalanced distribution system for accurate load margin assessment; demonstrate the influence of net-load unbalance (NLU) on voltage stability margin (VSM). We also share a T&D co-simulation interface with commercial power system solvers. The distribution system is evolving rapidly with high proliferation of distributed energy resources (DERs); these are not guaranteed to proliferate in a balanced manner and uncertainty resulting due to these DERs is well acknowledged. These uncertainties cannot be captured or visualized without representing the distribution system in detail along with the transmission system. We show the impact of proliferation of DERs in various 3-phase proportions on voltage stability margin through T&D co-simulation. We also study the impact of volt/VAR control on voltage stability margin. This analysis is only possible by representing the distribution system in detail through T&D co-simulation. In conclusion, higher percentage of net-load unbalance (NLU) in distribution system aggravates the voltage stability margin of the distribution system, which can further negatively influence the overall voltage stability margin of the system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Nonlinear CO 2 flux response to 7 years of experimentally induced permafrost thaw

Rapid Arctic warming is expected to increase global greenhouse gas concentrations as permafrost thaw exposes immense stores of frozen carbon (C) to microbial decomposition. Permafrost thaw also stimulates plant growth, which could offset C loss. Using data from 7 years of experimental Air and Soil warming in moist acidic tundra, we show that Soil warming had a much stronger effect on CO 2 flux than Air warming. Soil warming caused rapid permafrost thaw and increased ecosystem respiration (R eco ), gross primary productivity (GPP), and net summer CO 2 storage (NEE). Over 7 years R eco , GPP, and NEE also increased in Control (i.e., ambient plots), but this change could be explained by slow thaw in Control areas. In the initial stages of thaw, R eco , GPP, and NEE increased linearly with thaw across all treatments, despite different rates of thaw. As thaw in Soil warming continued to increase linearly, ground surface subsidence created saturated microsites and suppressed R eco , GPP, and NEE. However R eco and GPP remained high in areas with large Eriophorum vaginatum biomass. In general NEE increased with thaw, but was more strongly correlated with plant biomass than thaw, indicating that higher R eco in deeply thawed areas during summer months was balanced by GPP. Summer CO 2 flux across treatments fit a single quadratic relationship that captured the functional response of CO 2 flux to thaw, water table depth, and plant biomass. These results demonstrate the importance of indirect thaw effects on CO 2 flux: plant growth and water table dynamics. Nonsummer R eco models estimated that the area was an annual CO 2 source during all years of observation. As a result, nonsummer CO 2 loss in warmer, more deeply thawed soils exceeded the increases in summer GPP, and thawed tundra was a net annual CO 2 source.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

What Can Meta-Analyses Tell Us About the Reliability of Life Cycle Assessment for Decision Support?

The body of life cycle assessment (LCA) literature is vast and has grown over the last decade at a dauntingly rapid rate. Many LCAs have been published on the same or very similar technologies or products, in some cases leading to hundreds of publications. One result is the impression among decision makers that LCAs are inconclusive, owing to perceived and real variability in published estimates of life cycle impacts. Despite the extensive available literature and policy need formore conclusive assessments, only modest attempts have been made to synthesize previous research. A significant challenge to doing so are differences in characteristics of the considered technologies and inconsistencies in methodological choices (e.g., system boundaries, coproduct allocation, and impact assessment methods) among the studies that hamper easy comparisons and related decision support. An emerging trend is meta-analysis of a set of results from LCAs, which has the potential to clarify the impacts of a particular technology, process, product, or material and produce more robust and policy-relevant results. Meta-analysis in this context is defined here as an analysis of a set of published LCA results to estimate a single or multiple impacts for a single technology or a technology category, either in a statistical sense (e.g., following the practice in the biomedical sciences) or by quantitative adjustment of the underlying studies to make them more methodologically consistent. One example of the latter approach was published in Science by Farrell and colleagues (2006) clarifying the net energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of ethanol, in which adjustments included the addition of coproduct credit, the addition and subtraction of processes within the system boundary, and a reconciliation of differences in the definition of net energy metrics. Such adjustments therefore provide an even playing field on which all studies can be considered and at the same time specify the conditions of the playing field itself. Understanding the conditions under which a meta-analysis was conducted is important for proper interpretation of both the magnitude and variability in results. This special supplemental issue of the Journal of Industrial Ecology includes 12 high-quality metaanalyses and critical reviews of LCAs that advance understanding of the life cycle environmental impacts of different technologies, processes, products, and materials. Also published are three contributions on methodology and related discussions of the role of meta-analysis in LCA. The goal of this special supplemental issue is to contribute to the state of the science in LCA beyond the core practice of producing independent studies on specific products or technologies by highlighting the ability of meta-analysis of LCAs to advance understanding in areas of extensive existing literature. The inspiration for the issue came from a series of meta-analyses of life cycle GHG emissions from electricity generation technologies based on research from the LCA Harmonization Project of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), a laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, which also provided financial support for this special supplemental issue. (See the editorial from this special supplemental issue [Lifset 2012], which introduces this supplemental issue and discusses the origins, funding, peer review, and other aspects.) The first article on reporting considerations for meta-analyses/critical reviews for LCA is from Heath and Mann (2012), who describe the methods used and experience gained in NREL's LCA Harmonization Project, which produced six of the studies in this special supplemental issue. Their harmonization approach adapts key features of systematic review to identify and screen published LCAs followed by a meta-analytical procedure to adjust published estimates to ones based on a consistent set of methods and assumptions to allow interstudy comparisons and conclusions to be made. In a second study on methods, Zumsteg and colleagues (2012) propose a checklist for a standardized technique to assist in conducting and reporting systematic reviews of LCAs, including meta-analysis, that is based on a framework used in evidence-based medicine. Widespread use of such a checklist would facilitate planning successful reviews, improve the ability to identify systematic reviews in literature searches, ease the ability to update content in future reviews, and allow more transparency of methods to ease peer review and more appropriately generalize findings. Finally, Zamagni and colleagues (2012) propose an approach, inspired by a meta-analysis, for categorizing main methodological topics, reconciling diverging methodological developments, and identifying future research directions in LCA. Their procedure involves the carrying out of a literature review on articles selected according to predefined criteria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data from: "Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions"

This archive contains data files that were used to draw conclusions in “Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions”, by Moyes et al., 2015. All field research was completed in common garden plots set up as part of the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA.There are two main data file formats in this archive: comma-separated values (.csv), and Microsoft Excel (.xls and .xlsx). .xlsx files can be read using Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets, and .csv files can be read using any simple text editor program, such as TextEdit (Mac) and Notepad (Windows). This .pdf data user’s guide can be read using Adobe Acrobat Reader, or any other compatible software. Seedling photographs and their corresponding leaf area-processed images are available in .jpg/.JPG image format, and can be opened using Preview (Mac) and Photos (Windows). To provide additional spatial context, two types of geospatial files are also published in this data package: ESRI shapefiles (.shp) and .kml files. Shapefiles are compatible with any GIS software able to read the file type (such as QGIS or ESRI’s ArcGIS suite), and .kml files can be opened with Google Earth or Google Maps. Figures 3 and 4 in the publication contain data from Moyes et al. 2013. This publication is cited in the References section in this archive, and data files can be accessed via the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment project portal on ESS-DIVE. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict.- We measured response functions linking carbon (C) assimilation and temperature- and moisture-related microclimatic factors for limber pine (Pinus flexilis) seedlings growing in a heating × watering experiment within and above the alpine treeline. We then extrapolated these response functions using observed microclimate conditions to estimate the net effects of warming and associated soil drying on C assimilation across an entire growing season.- Moisture and temperature limitations were each estimated to reduce potential growing season C gain from a theoretical upper limit by 15–30% (c. 50% combined). Warming above current treeline conditions provided relatively little benefit to modeled net assimilation, whereas assimilation was sensitive to either wetter or drier conditions.- Summer precipitation may be at least as important as temperature in constraining C gain by establishing subalpine trees at and above current alpine treelines as seasonally dry subalpine and alpine ecosystems continue to warm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric and Soil Parameters in Five Urban Sites in Knoxville, Tennessee. 2024

This dataset, which contains ten csv files, reports several meteorological conditions such as temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, and net radiation measured in several urban parks in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA: Cumberland Estates Park (CEP), Socially Equal Energy Efficient Development (SEEED), West View Park (WVP), Victor Ashe Park (VAP), and West Hills Park (WHP). Also, hourly average of soil parameters such soil temperature, moisture, and matric potential measured in the five sites are included in this dataset. Air temperature, wind speed and direction, and solar radiation data were obtained from a METER ATMOS 41 All-in-One Weather Station (Pullman, Washington, USA). Soil moisture and temperature parameters were measured the METER Teros 12 probes embedded to a depth of 5 cm into the soil, while soil matric potential was measured with a METER Teros 21 probe. Incident and emitted radiation (shortwave and longwave) measurements were made using an Apogee (Logan, Utah, USA) net radiometer (Model SN-500-SS). This work is a part of a larger study which investigates the impact of soil moisture and plant evapotranspiration on ambient temperature and relative humidity in several city parks in Knoxville, Tennessee.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Meteorological and Soil Data from Ecohydrology Sensor Towers at Pump House and Snodgrass Mountain in East River Watershed, Colorado, 2019-2025

This data package includes hourly meteorological and soil sensor data at eight ecohydrology monitoring sites in East River Watershed, Colorado as part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (WFSFA) research led by Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (LBNL). Four field sites were located on the hillslope of East River (ER) near Pump House (PH) at Mount Crested Butte (ER-PHS1 to 4), and the other four are in the Snodgrass Mountain (SG) area (SG-EHS5 to 8). In terms of vegetation cover, three sites are in montane grasslands (ER-PHS1, ER-PHS2, and SG-EHS5), three are below evergreen conifer canopy (ER-PHS3, SG-EHS6, and SG-EHS7), and two are below deciduous aspen canopy (ER-PHS4 and SG-EHS8). The monitoring period began in October 2019 at the East River sites, in October 2020 at SG-EHS5 and SG-EHS6, and in October 2021 at SG-EHS7 and SG-EHS8. In September 2024, all four East River sites were fully retired. The four Snodgrass Mountain sites remain active. Each site is equipped with a comprehensive suite of meteorological sensors on a tripod and soil sensors that measure weather, energy fluxes, and soil variables. This data package includes measurements from ten different types of sensors and up to thirteen individual sensors per site, including (1) a weather station (measurement height ranges from 2.8~3.8 meters (m) above ground), (2) a quantum sensor for photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) (2.4~3.3m), (3) a net radiometer (1.7~2.1m), (4) an infrared radiometer (1.6~2.2m), (5) a sonic distance sensor (1.5~1.9m), (6) a soil carbon dioxide (CO2) flux chamber (0m), (7) a soil heat flux plate (-0.05m below ground), (8) a soil oxygen sensor (-0.3m), (9) a soil water potential sensor (-0.3m), and (10) soil water content sensors at 3~4 depths (-1.15 ~ -0.1m). A total of twenty-three variables is reported in this data package, including (1) atmospheric variables: air temperature (TA), atmospheric pressure (PA), vapor pressure (VP), and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), (2) precipitation variables: rain precipitation (P) and snow depth (D_SNOW), (3) energy fluxes variables: four-component net radiation (NETRAD) (shortwave/longwave incoming/outgoing radiation, SW_IN, SW_OUT, LW_IN, LW_OUT), photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD), and soil heat flux (G), (4) soil variables: soil water content (SWC), soil water potential (SWP), soil temperature (TS), soil bulk electrical conductivity (COND_SOIL), and soil gaseous oxygen concentration (O2_SOIL), (5) wind variables: two-dimensional wind speed (WS), gust speed (WS_MAX), and wind direction (WD), and (6) surface variables: surface infrared temperature (T_CANOPY) and soil CO2 flux (CO2_SOIL). Please see the Methods section for data processing and QA/QC steps taken to generate the hourly datasets. The following files are included in this data package (notes on version: v{x}-{y}, where x is the metadata version, and y is the data version, when applicable): (1) “metadata_site_v{x}-{y}.csv” - a site metadata file that summarizes location information of all sites, including site ID, description, coordinates, timeframe, elevation, and vegetation cover, (2) “metadata_instrument_v{x}-{y}.csv” - an instrument metadata file that summarizes sensor information of all sites, including sensor manufacturer and model, measurement height, and sampling and averaging interval of all variables, (3) "data_{SITE_ID}_v{x}-{y}.csv" - eight data files that contain hourly data of each site indicated by {SITE_ID} in the filename, (4) “/figure/data_{SITE_ID}_v{x}-{y}.png" - eight figures that help visualize data of each site indicated by {SITE_ID} in the filename, (5) “/photo/*” - photos of each site indicated by {SITE_ID} in the filename, and (6) four file level metadata (flmd.csv) and data dictionary (*_dd.csv) files that summarize file, header, column, and variable information of all files. Notes: (1) Measurement height: Each variable name is followed by conventional positional qualifiers “H_V_R”, where H indicates the relative horizontal positions of that specific variable, V the vertical positions, and R the replicates. In this data package, only the vertical qualifier V varies, and V increases from the highest vertical position (V=1) to the lowest. Variables with the same qualifier are not necessarily measured by the same sensor, and the same variable with the same qualifier across different sites are not necessarily measured at the same height. Please refer to “metadata_instrument.csv” for the sensor information and measurement heights, and whether a variable is measured below the canopy. (2) Variable availability: Snow depth is not available at ER-PHS3 and SG-EHS7. SWC, soil temperature, and soil bulk EC at the deepest depth (<-1m) are not available at SG-EHS6 and SG-EHS7. The missing value code for numeric variables is -9999, except for SWP. For SWP, the missing value code is +9999, because SWP values are negative. (3) Sampling frequency: Please refer to “metadata_instrument.csv” for the increase of sampling frequency of some variables from 30-min to 1-min at ER-PHS1 to 4 in July 2020. (4) Sensors: While the methods of each sensor are not detailed, all sensors are commercially available, and their methods can be found in their manuals. Please refer to “metadata_instrument.csv” for the sensor manufacturer and model information. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Potential Energy Savings Due to Phase Change Material in a Building Wall Assembly: An Examination of Two Climates

Phase change material (PCM), placed in an exterior wall, alters the temperature profile within the wall and thus influences the heat transport through the wall. This may reduce the net energy transport through the wall via interactions with diurnal temperature swings in the external environment or reduce the electricity needed to meet the net load through the wall by shifting the time of the peak load to a time when the cooling system operates more efficiently. This study covers a broad range of parameters that can influence the effectiveness of such a merged thermal storage-thermal insulation system. These parameters included climate, PCM location within the wall, amount of PCM, midpoint of the PCM melting and freezing range relative to the indoor setpoint temperature, temperature range over which phase change occurs, and the wall orientation. Two climates are investigated using finite difference and optimization analyses: Phoenix and Baltimore, with two utility rate schedules. Although potential savings for a PCM with optimized properties were greater when the PCM was concentrated near the inside wall surface, other considerations described here lead to a recommendation for a full-thickness application. An examination of the temperature distribution within the walls also revealed the potential for this system to reduce the amount of energy transported through the wall framing. Finally, economic benefits can exceed energy savings when time-of-day utility rates are in effect, reflecting the value of peak load reductions for the utility grid.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Role of Solar Water Heating in Multifamily Zero Energy Homes

Solar domestic hot water (SDHW) systems have been installed on buildings for decades, but because of relatively high costs they have not achieved significant market penetration in most of the country. As more buildings move towards zero net energy consumption, however, many designers and developers are looking more closely at SDHW. In multifamily buildings especially, SDHW may be more practical for several reasons: 1) When designing for zero net energy consumption, solar water heating may be part of the lowest cost approach to meet water heating loads; 2) Because of better scale, SDHW systems in multifamily buildings cost significantly less per dwelling than in single-family homes; 3) Many low-load buildings are moving away from fossil fuels entirely. SDHW savings are substantially greater when displacing electric resistance water heating; and 4) In addition to federal tax incentives, some states have substantial financial incentives that dramatically reduce the costs (or increase the benefits) of SDHW systems in multifamily buildings. With support from the U.S. DOE Building America program, the Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB) worked with a developer in western Massachusetts to evaluate a SDHW system on a 12-unit apartment building. Olive Street Development completed construction in spring of 2014, and CARB has been monitoring performance of the water heating systems since May 2014.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

On the Path to SunShot. Emerging Issues and Challenges in Integrating High Levels of Solar into the Electrical Generation and Transmission System

This report examines how the bulk power system may need to evolve to accommodate the increased photovoltaic (PV) penetration resulting from achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot cost targets. The variable and uncertain nature of PV-generated electricity presents grid-integration challenges. For example, the changing net load associated with high midday PV generation and low electricity demand can create 'overgeneration' that requires curtailment of PV output and reduces PV's value and cost-competitiveness. Accommodating the changes in net load resulting from increased variable generation requires enhancements to a power system's 'flexibility,' or ability to balance supply and demand over multiple time scales through options including changes in system operation, flexible generation, reserves from solar, demand response, energy storage, and enhanced transmission and regional coordination. For utility-scale PV with a baseline SunShot levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh, increasing the annual energy demand met by solar energy from 10% to 20% would increase the marginal LCOE of PV from 6 cents/kWh to almost 11 cents/kWh in a California grid system with limited flexibility. However, increasing system flexibility could minimize solar curtailment and keep PV cost-competitive at penetrations at least as high as 25%. In the longer term, energy storage technologies--such as concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage--could facilitate the cost-effective integration of even higher PV penetration. Efficient deployment of the grid-flexibility options needed to maintain solar's value will require various innovations, from the development of communication, control, and energy storage technologies to the implementation of new market rules and operating procedures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Energy in Modular (EMOD) Buildings Method: A Guide to Energy-Efficient Design for Industrialized Construction of Modular Buildings

Industrialized construction has immense potential to address the growing need globally to build and upgrade the building stock to be affordable, energy-efficient, and resilient. It can also help achieve the United States' goal of a 50% reduction in U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030. Despite this potential, and the ever-increasing push for electrification and decarbonization of households in the United States, industrialized construction has not yet been leveraged specifically to help address these challenges and accelerate the pathway to meet these goals. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) aims to claim this missed opportunity by focusing on delivering affordable, grid-efficient net-zero energy (NZE) modular buildings for underserved communities to ensure an equitable transition to the future of clean energy, accelerate decarbonization of the built environment, and support the development of a high-productivity construction and energy efficiency workforce. The Energy in Modular (EMOD) method is our approach to designing, producing, and delivering affordable, net-zero energy, low-carbon, and healthier buildings at scale. The following energy efficiency strategies are part of the scope of this guide: envelope thermal control, envelope infiltration control, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems, smart controls, and solar plus storage. We draw synergies between design for manufacturing and assembly, process optimization, retrofit technologies, and digitization. Our goal is to influence the improvement and production of buildings to increase performance, enhance energy efficiency, and reduce GHG emissions. This guide documents the research and development efforts initiated by a set of design objectives to "modularize" a set of energy efficiency and low-carbon strategies into a housing unit while preserving and enhancing energy efficiency benefits and decarbonization pathways. This guide is intended to serve as a framework for housing developers, housing agencies, architects, energy experts, and process engineers or factory operator personnel who are critical to today's modular builder teams. This guide focuses on specific energy efficiency strategies, decarbonization pathways, and associated processes as part of NREL's research efforts. Stakeholders may substitute other means, methods, and technologies for the ones evaluated in this study.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Examining Supply-Side Options to Achieve 100% Clean Electricity by 2035

The growing climate emergency requires a dramatic and rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States and internationally. This study evaluates a variety of 100% clean electricity system scenarios in 2035 that could put the United States on a path to economy-wide net-zero emissions by 2050, specifically focusing on technical requirements, challenges, and cost implications. The results highlight there are multiple approaches to cost-effectively achieve a net-zero carbon grid in 2035.

100% clean electricity↗

Investigating spatial variability of aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei, and ice nucleating particles in mountainous terrain

The ASR-supported Surface Atmosphere Integrated field Laboratory (SAIL) in the East River Watershed (ERW) of the Upper Colorado River Basin in southwestern Colorado ran from fall 2021 to spring 2023. Two monitoring sites were deployed in the East River Watershed as part of SAIL. The two sites were the Aerosol Observation System (AOS) located on Crested Butte Ski Mountain, and the ARM Mobile Facility (AMF-2), located at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Gothic, Colorado. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of aerosols in complex, mountainous terrain, Handix Scientific deployed SAIL-Net, a distributed network of six measurement nodes spanning the domain of the SAIL research area from October 2021 to July 2023. Each node measured aerosol particles between 140 nm and 3.4 μm in diameter using a small particle counter (POPS, (Gao et al., 2016)), CNN using a miniature CCN counter (CloudPuck), and INP using the Time-Resolved Aerosol Filter Sampler (TRAPS, Creamean et al. (2018)). Our approach was similar to other studies that aimed to better characterize and understand aerosols and gas-phase pollutants using networks of lower-cost sensors (Caubel et al., 2019; Kelly et al., 2021; Asher et al., 2022). Such studies have identified neighborhood-level variations in pollutant concentrations (Schneider et al., 2017; Popoola et al., 2018; Caubel et al., 2019). Small-scale variations such as this are poorly represented in models and poorly measured by a single monitoring system (Caubel et al., 2019). Previous work has shown the representation error (the ability of measurements to represent a larger area) increases with complex orography, leading to decreases in model accuracy (Schutgens et al., 2017). The overall goal of SAIL-Net was to improve our understanding of the variability of aerosol in ERW, thus increasing our knowledge of aerosol-cloud interactions in this region and informing the usefulness of distributed networks of measurements for future studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving Prediction of Peroxide Value of Edible Oils Using Regularized Regression Models

We present four unique prediction techniques, combined with multiple data pre-processing methods, utilizing a wide range of both oil types and oil peroxide values (PV) as well as incorporating natural aging for peroxide creation. Samples were PV assayed using a standard starch titration method, AOCS Method Cd 8-53, and used as a verified reference method for PV determination. Near-infrared (NIR) spectra were collected from each sample in two unique optical pathlengths (OPLs), 2 and 24 mm, then fused into a third distinct set. All three sets were used in partial least squares (PLS) regression, ridge regression, LASSO regression, and elastic net regression model calculation. While no individual regression model was established as the best, global models for each regression type and pre-processing method show good agreement between all regression types when performed in their optimal scenarios. Furthermore, small spectral window size boxcar averaging shows prediction accuracy improvements for edible oil PVs. Best-performing models for each regression type are: PLS regression, 25 point boxcar window fused OPL spectral information RMSEP = 2.50; ridge regression, 5 point boxcar window, 24 mm OPL, RMSEP = 2.20; LASSO raw spectral information, 24 mm OPL, RMSEP = 1.80; and elastic net, 10 point boxcar window, 24 mm OPL, RMSEP = 1.91. The results show promising advancements in the development of a full global model for PV determination of edible oils.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Effects of Land Use Change for Crops on Water and Carbon Budgets in the Midwest USA

Increasing demand for food and bioenergy has altered the global landscape dramatically in recent years. Land use and land cover change affects the environmental system in many ways through biophysical and biogeochemical mechanisms. In this study, we evaluate the impacts of land use and land cover change driven by recent crop expansion and conversion on the water budget, carbon exchange, and carbon storage in the Midwest USA. A dynamic global vegetation model was used to simulate and examine the impacts of landscape change in a historical case based on crop distribution data from the United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Services. The simulation results indicate that recent crop expansion not only decreased soil carbon sequestration (60 Tg less of soil organic carbon) and net carbon flux into ecosystems (3.7 Tg·year−1 less of net biome productivity), but also lessened water consumption through evapotranspiration (1.04 × 1010 m3·year−1 less) over 12 states in the Midwest. More water yield at the land surface does not necessarily make more water available for vegetation. Crop residue removal might also exacerbate the soil carbon loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗