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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

Effects of Uncertainty in TRMM Precipitation Radar Path Integrated Attenuation on Interannual Variations of Tropical Oceanic Rainfall

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30 deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Time series of rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) over the tropical oceans show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. We show that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series. Our analysis of discrepancies between the PR rainfall and attenuation suggests that uncertainty in the assumed drop size distribution and associated attenuation/reflectivity/rainfall relationships inherent in single-frequency radar methods is a serious issue for studies of interannual variability.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Detecting impacts of surface development near weather stations since 1895 in the San Joaquin Valley of California

Abstract Temperature readings observed at surface weather stations have been used for detecting changes in climate due to their long period of observations. The most common temperature metrics recorded are the daily maximum (TMax) and minimum (TMin) extremes. Unfortunately, influences besides background climate variations impact these measurements such as changes in (1) instruments, (2) location, (3) time of observation, and (4) the surrounding artifacts of human civilization (buildings, farms, streets, etc.) Quantifying (4) is difficult because the surrounding infrastructure, unique to each site, often changes slowly and variably and is thus resistant to general algorithms for adjustment. We explore a direct method of detecting this impact by comparing a single station that experienced significant development from 1895 to 2019, and especially since 1970, relative to several other stations with lesser degrees of such development (after adjustments for the (1) to (3) are applied). The target station is Fresno, California (metro population ~ 15,000 in 1900 and ~ 1 million in 2019) situated on the eastern side of the broad, flat San Joaquin Valley in which several other stations reside. A unique component of this study is the use of pentad (5-day averages) as the test metric. Results indicate that Fresno experienced + 0.4 °C decade −1 more nighttime warming (TMin) since 1970 than its neighbors—a time when population grew almost 300%. There was little difference seen in TMax trends between Fresno and non-Fresno stations since 1895 with TMax trends being near zero. A case is made for the use of TMax as the preferred climate metric relative to TMin for a variety of physical reasons. Additionally, temperatures measured at systematic times of the day (i.e., hourly) show promise as climate indicators as compared with TMax and especially TMin (and thus TAvg) due to several complicating factors involved with daily high and low measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Validation and moisture content sensitivity analysis of cross-laminated timber wall assemblies in EnergyPlus

Cross-laminated timber buildings are becoming more common in North America, with many numerical studies showing potential energy savings. However, no studies have validated any EnergyPlus heat transfer algorithms or quantified their accuracy in simulating CLT in building envelopes. This study empirically validates the heat flux predictions for each of EnergyPlus's heat transfer algorithms (Conduction Transfer Functions (CTF), Effective Moisture Penetration Depth (EMPD), Conduction Finite Difference (CondFD), and Heat and Moisture Transfer (HAMT)) for two different CLT ply thicknesses with both summer and winter boundary conditions measured in controlled lab experiments. It also evaluates the model sensitivity of heat flux and heating and cooling loads to moisture content. The 1D validation shows that the HAMT model is the most accurate among all algorithms. All EnergyPlus's heat flux predictions are accurate independent of CLT plate thickness for summer conditions. However, the three constant property algorithms (CTF, EMPD, and CondFD) underpredict heat flux throughout the whole day during winter conditions. The 1D sensitivity analysis indicates that elevated moisture content can increase peak heat fluxes through the material by up to 20 %. Finally, the whole building model sensitivity analysis shows increased heating load and slight cooling load variation due to increased moisture content when using constant property models. The analysis shows significantly lower peak thermal demand (7 % lower heating and 6 % lower cooling) and monthly thermal load (8 % less cooling and 6 % less heating) predictions when using HAMT vs a constant property model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Automated model formulation for time-varying flexible structures

Presented here is an identification technique that uses the sensor information to choose a new model out of a finite set of discrete model space, in order to follow the observed changes to the given time varying flexible structure. Boundary condition sets or other information on model variations are used to organize the set of possible models laterally into a search tree with levels of abstraction used to order the models vertically within branches. An object-oriented programming approach is used to represent the model set in the search tree. A modified A (asterisk) best first search algorithm finds the model where the model response best matches the current observations. Several extensions to this methodology are discussed. Methods of possible integration of rules with the current search algorithm are considered to give weight to interpreted trends that may be found in a series of observations. This capability might lead, for instance, to identifying a model that incorporates a progressive damage rather than with incorrect paramenters such as added mass. Another new direction is to consider the use of noisy time domain sensor feedback rather than frequency domain information in the search algorithm to improve the real-time capability of the developed procedure.

Glass, B. J.↗

Cloud detection using satellite measurements of infrared and visible radiances for ISCCP

This paper, the first of three, describes the cloud detection part of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) analysis. Key features of the cloud detection alogrithm are (1) use of space and time radiance variation tests over several different space and time domains to account for the global variety of cloudy and clear characteristics, (2) estimation of clear radiance values for every time and place, and, (3) use of radiance thresholds that vary with the type of surface and climate regime. Design of the detection algorithm was supported by global, multiyear surveys of the statistical behavior of satellite-measured infrared and visible radiances to determine those characteristics that differentiate cloudy and clear scenes and how these characteristics vary among climate regimes. A summary of these statistical results is presented to illustrate how the cloud detection method works in a variety of circumstances. The sensitivity of the results to changing test parameter values is determined to provide a first estimate of the uncertainty of ISCCP cloud amounts. These test results (which exclude polar regions) suggest detection uncertainties of about 10% with possible negative biases of 5% (especially at night).

Rossow, Illiam B.↗

BOREAS HYD-4 Standard Snow Course Data

The Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) Hydrology (HYD)-4 work was focused on collecting data during the winter focused field campaign (FFC-W) to improve the understanding of winter processes within the boreal forest. Knowledge of snow cover and its variability in the boreal forest is fundamental if BOREAS is to achieve its goals of understanding the processes and states involved in the exchange of energy and water. The development and validation of remote sensing algorithms will provide the means to extend the knowledge of these processes and states from the local to the regional scale. A specific thrust of the research is the development and validation of snow cover algorithms from airborne passive microwave measurements. Snow surveys were conducted at special snow courses throughout the 1993/94, 1994/95, 1995/96, and 1996/97 winter seasons. These snow courses were located in different boreal forest land cover types (i.e., old aspen, old black spruce, young jack pine, forest clearing, etc.) to document snow cover variations throughout the season as a function of different land cover. Measurements of snow depth, density, and water equivalent were acquired on or near the first and fifteenth of each month during the snow cover season. The data are provided in tabular ASCII files. The HYD-4 standard snow course data are available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884).

Metcalfe, John R.↗

AIRS Data Subsetting Service at the Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) DISC/DAAC

The AIRS mission, as a combination of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and the Humidity Sounder for Brazil (HSB), brings climate research and weather prediction into 21st century. From NASA' Aqua spacecraft, the AIRS/AMSU/HSB instruments measure humidity, temperature, cloud properties and the amounts of greenhouse gases. The AIRS also reveals land and sea- surface temperatures. Measurements from these three instruments are analyzed . jointly to filter out the effects of clouds from the IR data in order to derive clear-column air-temperature profiles and surface temperatures with high vertical resolution and accuracy. Together, they constitute an advanced operational sounding data system that have contributed to improve global modeling efforts and numerical weather prediction; enhance studies of the global energy and water cycles, the effects of greenhouse gases, and atmosphere-surface interactions; and facilitate monitoring of climate variations and trends. The high data volume generated by the AIRS/AMSU/HSB instruments and the complexity of its data format (Hierarchical Data Format, HDF) are barriers to AIRS data use. Although many researchers are interested in only a fraction of the data they receive or request, they are forced to run their algorithms on a much larger data set to extract the information of interest. In order to better server its users, the GES DISC/DAAC, provider of long-term archives and distribution services as well science support for the AIRS/AMSU/HSB data products, has developed various tools for performing channels, variables, parameter, spatial and derived products subsetting, resampling and reformatting operations. This presentation mainly describes the web-enabled subsetting services currently available at the GES DISC/DAAC that provide subsetting functions for all the Level 1B and Level 2 data products from the AIRS/AMSU/HSB instruments.

Vicente, Gilberto A.↗

In-Flight Calibration Methods for Temperature-Dependent Offsets in the MMS Fluxgate Magnetometers

During the first dayside season of the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission, the in-flight calibration process for the Fluxgate magnetometers (FGM) implemented an algorithm that selected a constant offset (zero-level) for each sensor on each orbit. This method was generally able to reduce the amplitude of residual spin tone to less than 0.2 nT within the region of interest. However, there are times when the offsets do show significant short-term variations. These variations are most prominent in the nighttime season (phase 1X), when eclipses are accompanied by offset changes as large as 1 nT. Eclipses are followed by a recovery period as long as 12 hours where the offsets continue to change as temperatures stabilize. Understanding and compensating for these changes will become critical during Phase 2 of the mission in 2017, when the nightside will become the focus of MMS science. Although there is no direct correlation between offset and temperature, the offsets are seen for the period of any given week to be well-characterized as function of instrument temperature. Using this property, a new calibration method has been developed that has proven effective in compensating for temperature-dependent offsets during phase 1X of the MMS mission and also promises to further refine calibration quality during the dayside season.

Magnetic field reconnection↗

In-Flight Calibration of the MMS Fluxgate Magnetometers

We present an overview of the approach to in-flight calibration, which is a coordinated effort between the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), Space Research Institute, Graz, Austria (IWF) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). We present details of the calibration effort at GSFC. During the first dayside season of the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission, the in-flight calibration process for the Fluxgate magnetometers (FGM) implemented an algorithm that selected a constant offset (zero-level) for each sensor on each orbit. This method was generally able to reduce the amplitude of residual spin tone to less than 0.2 nT within the region of interest. However, there are times when the offsets do show significant short-term variations. These variations are most prominent in the nighttime season (phase 1X), when eclipses are accompanied by offset changes as large as 1 nT. Eclipses are followed by a recovery period as long as 12 hours where the offsets continue to change as temperatures stabilize. Understanding and compensating for these changes will become critical during Phase 2 of the mission in 2017, when the nightside will become the focus of MMS science. Although there is no direct correlation between offset and temperature, the offsets are seen for the period of any given week to be well-characterized as function of instrument temperature. Using this property, a new calibration method has been developed that has proven effective in compensating for temperature-dependent offsets during phase 1X of the MMS mission and also promises to further refine calibration quality during the dayside season.

Magnetic field reconnection↗

Perturbations and Recovery in the Gateway Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit

The Gateway and CAPSTONE spacecraft are planned to orbit the Moon in a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) that experiences a 9:2 resonance with the lunar synodic period. Disturbances applied to spacecraft in this NRHO must be corrected to achieve a reasonable lifetime in orbit. This investigation explores the variations between a spacecraft operating under nominal orbit maintenance and the baseline NRHO. The effects of perturbations on an unmaintained spacecraft are examined, with a focus on the time to depart the NRHO. Finally, the costs of correcting disturbances of varying magnitudes are computed using a simple but robust orbit maintenance algorithm.

Diane C. Davis↗

Variations in boundary layer stability across Antarctica: a comparison between coastal and interior sites

The range of boundary layer stability profiles, from the surface to 500 m a.g.l. (above ground level), present in radiosonde observations from two continental-interior (South Pole Station and Dome Concordia Station) and three coastal (McMurdo Station, Georg von Neumayer Station III, and Syowa Station) Antarctic sites, is examined using the self-organizing maps (SOMs) neural network algorithm. A wide range of potential temperature profiles is revealed, from shallow boundary layers with strong near-surface stability to deeper boundary layers with weaker or near-neutral stability, as well as profiles with weaker near-surface stability and enhanced stability aloft, above the boundary layer. Boundary layer regimes were defined based on the range of profiles revealed by the SOM analysis; 20 boundary layer regimes were identified to account for differences in stability near the surface as well as above the boundary layer. Strong, very strong, or extremely strong stability, with vertical potential temperature gradients of 5 to in excess of 30 K per 100 m, occurred more than 80 % of the time at South Pole and Dome Concordia in the winter. Weaker stability was found in the winter at the coastal sites, with moderate and strong stability (vertical potential temperature gradients of 1.75 to 15 K per 100 m) occurring 70 % to 85 % of the time. Even in the summer, moderate and strong stability is found across all five sites, either immediately near the surface or aloft, just above the boundary layer. While the mean boundary layer height at the continental-interior sites was found to be approximately 50 m, the mean boundary layer height at the coastal sites was deeper, around 110 m. Further, a commonly described two-stability-regime system in the Arctic associated with clear or cloudy conditions was applied to the 20 boundary layer regimes identified in this study to understand if the two-regime behavior is also observed in the Antarctic. It was found that moderate and strong stability occur more often with clear- than cloudy-sky conditions, but weaker stability regimes occur almost equally for clear and cloudy conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probabilistic simulation of quantum circuits using a deep-learning architecture

The fundamental question of how to best simulate quantum systems using conventional computational resources lies at the forefront of condensed matter and quantum computation. It impacts both our understanding of quantum materials and our ability to emulate quantum circuits. Here we present an exact formulation of quantum dynamics via factorized generalized measurements which maps quantum states to probability distributions with the advantage that local unitary dynamics and quantum channels map to local quasistochastic matrices. This representation provides a general framework for using state-of-the-art probabilistic models in machine learning for the simulation of quantum many-body dynamics. Using this framework, we have developed a practical algorithm to simulate quantum circuits using an attention network based on a powerful neural network ansatz responsible for the most recent breakthroughs in natural language processing. We demonstrate our approach by simulating circuits that build Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger and linear graph states of up to 60 qubits, as well as a variational quantum eigensolver circuit for preparing the ground state of the transverse field Ising model on several system sizes. Our methodology constitutes a modern machine learning approach to the simulation of quantum physics with applicability both to quantum circuits as well as other quantum many-body systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A numerical comparison of discrete Kalman filtering algorithms: An orbit determination case study

The numerical stability and accuracy of various Kalman filter algorithms are thoroughly studied. Numerical results and conclusions are based on a realistic planetary approach orbit determination study. The case study results of this report highlight the numerical instability of the conventional and stabilized Kalman algorithms. Numerical errors associated with these algorithms can be so large as to obscure important mismodeling effects and thus give misleading estimates of filter accuracy. The positive result of this study is that the Bierman-Thornton U-D covariance factorization algorithm is computationally efficient, with CPU costs that differ negligibly from the conventional Kalman costs. In addition, accuracy of the U-D filter using single-precision arithmetic consistently matches the double-precision reference results. Numerical stability of the U-D filter is further demonstrated by its insensitivity of variations in the a priori statistics.

Thornton, C. L.↗

Parametric effects of CFL number and artificial smoothing on numerical solutions using implicit approximate factorization algorithm

An implicit approximate factorization algorithm is employed to quantify the parametric effects of Courant number and artificial smoothing on numerical solutions of the unsteady 3-D Euler equations for a windmilling propeller (low speed) flow field. The results show that propeller global or performance chracteristics vary strongly with Courant number and artificial dissipation parameters, though the variation is such less severe at high Courant numbers. Candidate sets of Courant number and dissipation parameters could result in parameter-dependent solutions. Parameter-independent numerical solutions can be obtained if low values of the dissipation parameter-time step ratio are used in the computations. Furthermore, it is realized that too much artificial damping can degrade numerical stability. Finally, it is demonstrated that highly resolved meshes may, in some cases, delay convergence, thereby suggesting some optimum cell size for a given flow solution. It is suspected that improper boundary treatment may account for the cell size constraint.

Daso, E. O.↗

A high-precision finite element method for shock-tube calculations

A two-pass explicit scheme is developed in order to exploit some of the capabilities of finite difference modeling (FDM) for finite element modeling (FEM), which offers the opportunity to account for any type of geometry in fluid flow modeling. Features of the first-order upwind and the Lax-Wendroff high precision explicit finite difference algorithms are reviewed. A flux limiter is developed for FEM to serve as an analog for the single limiter function which has been defined for the various FDMs. It is shown that an antidiffusive limiter must be introduced into the weighting function which normally multiplies the time-derivative term in the variational equation. The two-pass scheme which results is demonstrated to be the equivalent of FDMs with five-point support. However, the present scheme is valid only for one-dimensional calculations and linear shape functions for shock tube flow phenomena. Further work is required for its use with nonlinear hyperbolic systems.

Hughes, T. J. R.↗

Variational four-dimensional analysis using quasi-geostrophic constraints

A variational four-dimensional analysis technique using quasi-geostrophic models as constraints is examined using gridded fields as data. The analysis method uses a standard iterative nonlinear minimization technique to find the solution to the constraining forecast model which best fits the data as measured by a predefined functional. The minimization algorithm uses the derivative of the functional with respect to each of the initial condition values. This derivative vector is found by inserting the weighted differences between the model solution and the inserted data into a backwards integrating adjoint model. The four-dimensional analysis system was examined by applying it to fields created from a primitive equations model forecast and to fields created from satellite retrievals. The results show that the technique has several interesting characteristics not found in more traditional four-dimensional assimilation techniques. These features include a close fit of the model solution to the observations throughout the analysis interval and an insensitivity to the frequency of data insertion or the amount of data. The four-dimensional analysis technique is very versatile and can be extended to more complex problems with little theoretical difficulty.

Derber, John C.↗

The analysis of a rocket tomography measurement of the N2+3914A emission and N2 ionization rates in an auroral arc

Techniques were developed for recovering two-dimensional distributions of auroral volume emission rates from rocket photometer measurements made in a tomographic spin scan mode. These tomographic inversion procedures are based upon an algebraic reconstruction technique (ART) and utilize two different iterative relaxation techniques for solving the problems associated with noise in the observational data. One of the inversion algorithms is based upon a least squares method and the other on a maximum probability approach. The performance of the inversion algorithms, and the limitations of the rocket tomography technique, were critically assessed using various factors such as (1) statistical and non-statistical noise in the observational data, (2) rocket penetration of the auroral form, (3) background sources of emission, (4) smearing due to the photometer field of view, and (5) temporal variations in the auroral form. These tests show that the inversion procedures may be successfully applied to rocket observations made in medium intensity aurora with standard rocket photometer instruments. The inversion procedures have been used to recover two-dimensional distributions of auroral emission rates and ionization rates from an existing set of N2+3914A rocket photometer measurements which were made in a tomographic spin scan mode during the ARIES auroral campaign. The two-dimensional distributions of the 3914A volume emission rates recoverd from the inversion of the rocket data compare very well with the distributions that were inferred from ground-based measurements using triangulation-tomography techniques and the N2 ionization rates derived from the rocket tomography results are in very good agreement with the in situ particle measurements that were made during the flight. Three pre-prints describing the tomographic inversion techniques and the tomographic analysis of the ARIES rocket data are included as appendices.

Mcdade, Ian C.↗

How Consistent are Recent Variations in the Tropical Energy and Water Cycle Resolved by Satellite Measurements?

One notable aspect of Earth's climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. One question is 'How consistent, physically, are these diverse remotely-sensed data sets'? The answer is of crucial importance to understanding climate processes, improving physical models, and improving remote sensing algorithms. In this work we will evaluate two recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project 'FD' radiative flux profiles are available from mid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder)thermodynamic profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. We also employ precipitation measurements from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Finally, ocean evaporation estimates from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) are considered as well as derived evaporation from the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Robertson, F. R.↗