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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Abstract The frequency with which tropical cyclones (TCs) occur controls all other aspects of tropical cyclone risk since a storm that does not occur can do no harm. Yet this frequency is poorly understood. There is no accepted theory that explains the average number of TCs that occur each year on the Earth, nor how that number will change with global warming. Arguments based on global budgets of heat or moisture do not yet appear helpful, nor does a detailed understanding of the physical processes of TC genesis. Empirical indices that predict TC frequency as a function of large‐scale environmental variables can explain some of its relative variations in space and time, but not its absolute value. Global numerical models with horizontal grid spacings on the order of 25–50 km have allowed much improved simulations of TC activity, however. Many such models project a decrease in frequency with warming, but some project an increase. Idealized simulations, including those at higher resolutions, offer promise by allowing a systematic, deductive investigation of the roles of individual environmental factors. In addition to the larger‐scale environmental modulation of genesis likelihood, precursor disturbances, or “seeds”, may exert an independent influence on TC frequency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Human-induced changes to the global ocean water masses and their time of emergence

The World Ocean is rapidly changing, with global and regional modification of temperature and salinity, resulting in widespread and irreversible impacts. While the most pronounced observed temperature and salinity changes are located in the upper ocean, changes in water masses at depth have been identified and will probably strengthen in the future. In this study, using 11 climate models, we define when anthropogenic temperature and salinity changes are expected to emerge from natural variability in the ocean interior along density surfaces. The models predict that in 2020, 20–55% of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian basins have an emergent anthropogenic signal; reaching 40–65% in 2050 and 55–80% in 2080. The well-ventilated Southern Ocean water masses emerge very rapidly, as early as the 1980–1990s, while the Northern Hemisphere water masses emerge in the 2010–2030s. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining and augmenting an ocean observing system capable of detecting and monitoring persistent anthropogenic changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Madden-Julian oscillation influences United States springtime tornado and hail frequency

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics and has a documented influence on extratropical extreme weather through modulation of synoptic atmospheric conditions. MJO phase has been correlated with anomalous tornado and severe hail frequency in the United States (US). However, the robustness of this relationship is unsettled, and the variability of physical pathways to modulation is poorly understood, despite the socioeconomic impacts that tornadoes and hail evoke. We approached this problem using pentad MJO indices and practically perfect severe weather hindcasts. MJO lifecycles were cataloged and clustered to document variability and potential pathways to enhanced subseasonal tornado and hail predictability. Statistically significant increases in US tornado and hail probabilities were documented 3–4 weeks following the period of the strongest upper-level divergence for the 53 active MJO events that propagated past the Maritime continent, contrasting with the 47 MJO events that experienced the barrier effect, during boreal spring 1979–2019. The 53 MJO events that propagated past the Maritime continent revealed three prevailing MJO evolutions—each containing unique pathways and modulation of US tornado and hail frequency—advancing our knowledge and capability to anticipate these hazards at extended lead times.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Polymer principles behind solubilizing lignin with organic cosolvents for bioenergy

Lignin solubilization is key to a viable biorefinery because its removal leads to facile deconstruction of biomass and because the isolated lignin can serve to derive precursors of novel high-value materials. The mixing of organic solvents with water has been shown to improve biomass fractionation and lignin conversion reactions. However, generally-applicable solubilization strategies are lacking because of the remarkable variability of lignin across plant feedstocks. Here, to obtain a predictive understanding of lignin solvation, we perform molecular dynamics simulations of model lignin polymers in two mixtures of water with polar aprotic solvents: tetrahydrofuran (THF) : water and γ-valerolactone (GVL) : water. The model lignins include H-, G- and S-only homopolymers and lignins with an S : G 1 : 1 ratio. We find that a well-established theory of self-avoiding polymers in a “good” solvent describes accurately the physical conformations of all types of lignin in both solvents. As the degree of methoxy substitution increases in the homopolymers, the distributions of the lignin radius of gyration and the Flory exponent ν , which describes the lignin-solvent interactions, do not change in THF : water, while ν shifts to slightly higher values in GVL : water. We attribute this increase to the interaction between the methyl group of GVL with the lignin methoxy groups. We also find that the reduction in the lignin radius of gyration due to branching is accurately described by the Zimm–Stockmayer theory for both THF : water and GVL : water. The above findings validate the applicability of polymer physics concepts to lignin and suggest that GVL : water may have the most favorable interaction with S-lignin, whereas the interactions of THF : water with lignin are independent of lignin monomeric content.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Insights on seasonal solifluction processes in warm permafrost Arctic landscape using a dense monitoring approach across adjacent hillslopes

Solifluction processes in the Arctic are highly complex, introducing uncertainties in estimating current and future soil carbon storage and fluxes, and assessment of hillslope and infrastructure stability. This study aims to enhance our understanding of triggers and drivers of soil movement of permafrost-affected hillslopes in the Arctic. To achieve this, we established an extensive soil deformation and temperature sensor network, covering 48 locations across multiple hillslopes within a 1 km² watershed on the Seward Peninsula, AK. We report depth-resolved measurements down to 1.8 m depth for May to September 2022, a period conducive to soil movement due to deepening thaw layers and frequent rain events. Over this period, surface movements of up to 334 mm were recorded. In general, these movements occur close to the thawing front, and are initiated as thawing reaches depths of 0.4 to 0.75 m. The largest movements were observed at the top of the south-east facing slope, where soil temperatures are cold (mean annual soil temperatures averaging -1.13°C) and slopes are steeper than 15°. Our analysis highlights three primary factors influencing movements: slope angle, soil thermal conditions, and thaw depth. The latter two significantly impact the generation of pore water pressures at the thaw–freeze interface. Specifically, soil thermal conditions govern the liquid water content, while thaw depth influences both the height of the water column and, consequently, the pressure at the thawing front. These factors affect soil properties, such as cohesion and internal friction angle, which are crucial determinants of slope stability. This underscores the significance of a precise understanding of subsurface thermal conditions, including spatial and temporal variability in soil temperature and thaw depth, when assessing and predicting slope instabilities. Based on our observations, we developed a Factor of Safety proxy that consistently falls below the triggering threshold for all probes exhibiting displacements exceeding 50 mm. This study offers novel insights into patterns and triggers of hillslope movements in the Arctic and provides a venue to evaluate their impact on soil redistribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The MFiX Particle-in-Cell Method (MFiX-PIC) Theory Guide

MFiX (Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges) is an open-source multiphase flow solver developed at the National Energy Technology Laboratory. Within the code, users have access to a single phase or interpenetrating continua-based multiphase two-fluid model (TFM), a discrete element model (DEM), and a particle-in-cell model (PIC). TFM, DEM, and PIC can all be used to create multiphase simulations that include hydrodynamics, chemical reactions, and heat transfer.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Transitioning from Simulation to Reality: Applying Chatter Detection Models to Real-World Machining Data

Chatter, a self-excited vibration phenomenon, is a critical challenge in high-speed machining operations, affecting tool life, product surface quality, and overall process efficiency. While machine learning models trained on simulated data have shown promise in detecting chatter, their real-world applicability remains uncertain due to discrepancies between simulated and actual machining environments. The primary goal of this study is to bridge the gap between simulation-based machine learning models and real-world applications by developing and validating a Random Forest-based chatter detection system. This research focuses on improving manufacturing efficiency through reliable chatter detection by integrating Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), Receptance Coupling Substructure Analysis (RCSA), and Transfer Learning (TL). The study applies a Random Forest classification model trained on over 140,000 simulated machining datasets, incorporating techniques like Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), Receptance Coupling Substructure Analysis (RCSA), and Transfer Learning (TL) to adapt the model for real-world operational data. The model is validated against 1600 real-world machining datasets, achieving an accuracy of 86.1%, with strong precision and recall scores. The results demonstrate the model’s robustness and potential for practical implementation in industrial settings, highlighting challenges such as sensor noise and variability in machining conditions. This work advances the use of predictive analytics in machining processes, offering a data-driven solution to improve manufacturing efficiency through more reliable chatter detection.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Interfacial solitary waves in a two-fluid medium

Solitary waves are generated on the interface between two immiscible liquids with free upper surface; their behavior is generally consistent with that predicted by the Korteweg-de Vries equation. Inviscid theory expanded to include capillary effects predicts unchanged wave speed and narrowed wave shape to first order in amplitude regardless of upper boundary condition; but measured speeds are down 8% and narrowing is substantially greater at very small amplitudes. The speed difference appears consistent with an interfacial viscous boundary layer. The critical depth ratio separating the elevation and depression modes of the stable gravity solitary wave agrees with prediction in the inviscid limit. The design of a programmed, variable flux wave maker for efficiently generating interfacial waves is discussed.

Walker, L. R.↗

The inertial properties of the body and its segments

Mass distribution properties of the adult human body are summarized. The summary is user-oriented for design engineers and mathematical modeling. Properties are dicussed in terms of the musculoskeletal linkage system, axes systems, mass, volume, center of mass, and inertial properties. Data and prediction equations or coefficients for modeling these properties are provided. Predictive formulas use total body weight and stature as independent variables. The data are based on small samples of living and cadaveric subjects typical of the white European male.

Reynolds, H. M.↗

Three-dimensional elastic-plastic finite-element analysis of fatigue crack propagation

Fatigue cracks are a major problem in designing structures subjected to cyclic loading. Cracks frequently occur in structures such as aircraft and spacecraft. The inspection intervals of many aircraft structures are based on crack-propagation lives. Therefore, improved prediction of propagation lives under flight-load conditions (variable-amplitude loading) are needed to provide more realistic design criteria for these structures. The main thrust was to develop a three-dimensional, nonlinear, elastic-plastic, finite element program capable of extending a crack and changing boundary conditions for the model under consideration. The finite-element model is composed of 8-noded (linear-strain) isoparametric elements. In the analysis, the material is assumed to be elastic-perfectly plastic. The cycle stress-strain curve for the material is shown Zienkiewicz's initial-stress method, von Mises's yield criterion, and Drucker's normality condition under small-strain assumptions are used to account for plasticity. The three-dimensional analysis is capable of extending the crack and changing boundary conditions under cyclic loading.

Goglia, G. L.↗

Simulation studies related to the design of post-FGGE observing systems

The results of three detailed simulation studies are presented. The first study consists of a comparative assessment of the performance of an advanced moisture/temperature sounder (AMTS) being proposed by NASA as a follow-on replacement to the current HIRS-2 operational sounder aboard the NOAA weather satellites. The second study was concerned with assessing the relative accuracies of inferred atmospheric states for idealized lidar wind profiling systems, temperature profiling systems, temperature profiling systems, surface pressure systems, and composite systems. The third study incorporated the above systems into a highly realistic data analysis/forecast cycle from which a series of forecast impact studies were conducted. These studies, taken together, give us a picture of the potential that emerging technoloies can offer in the determination of the basic atmospheric variables required for long-range numerical weather and climate prediction.

Halem, M.↗

Stress and efficiency studies in EFG

The goals of this program were: (1) to define minimum stress configurations for silicon sheet growth at high speeds; (2) to quantify dislocation electrical activity and their limits on minority carrier diffusion length in deformed silicon; and (3) to study reasons for degradation of lifetime with increases in doping level in edge-defined film-fed growth (EFG) materials. A finite element model was developed for calculating residual stress with plastic deformation. A finite element model was verified for EFG control variable relationships to temperature field of the sheet to permit prediction of profiles and stresses encountered in EFG systems. A residual stress measurement technique was developed for finite size EFG material blanks using shadow Moire interferometry. Transient creep response of silicon was investigated in the temperature range between 800 and 1400 C in strain and strain regimes of interest in stress analysis of sheet growth. Quantitative relationships were established between minority carrier diffusion length and dislocation densities using Electron Beam Induced Current (EBIC) measurement in FZ silicon deformed in four point bending tests.

Source record↗

Closure models of turbulent third-order momentum and temperature fluctuations

A study is made for the development and computations of the separating and reattaching shear flows. The highlight of the study is an attempt to predict the third-moments of turbulent velocity which is responsible for the diffusion transport of the Reynolds stresses. The present computations show that the third-moments obtained by employing the law-Reynolds number model of transport equations improve the prediction of the third-moments. The modelling for scalar variables is also performed for the heat transfer computations. Since the transport equations for (u sub j theta)* and (u sub i u sub j theta) have been given in the last NASA CR, the study has been extended further to the modeling of (theta sup 2), (u sub i theta sup 2) and epsilon sub theta (dissipation rate of (theta sup 2)). The formulations are shown in this report.

Amano, R. S.↗

Analysis of a fixed-pitch X-wing rotor employing lower surface blowing

Lower surface blowing (LSB) is investigated as an alternative to the variable blade pitch requirement for the X-wing Circulation Control (CC) rotor concept. Addition trailing edge blowing slots on the lower surfaces of CC airfoils provide a bidirectional lift capability that effectively doubles the control range. The operational requirements of this rotor system are detailed and compared to the projected performance attributes of LSB airfoils. Analysis shows that, aerodynamically, LSB supplies a fixed pitch rotor system with the equivalent lift efficiency and rotor control of present CC rotor designs that employ variable blade pitch. Aerodynamic demands of bidirectional lift production are predicted to be within the capabilities of current CC airfoil design methodology. Emphasis in this analysis is given to the high speed rotary wing flight regime unique to stoppable rotor aircraft. The impact of a fixed pitch restriction in hover and low speed flight is briefly discussed.

Schwartz, Alan W.↗

Research Study: Space Shuttle Main Engine Plume Flowfield Model

The initial research effort was an in-depth analysis of the shuttle main engine plumes in an effort to improve the flowfield model and to enhance shuttle base heating equipment predictions during ascent. A prediction methodology code was developed incorporating the improved plume model into a predictive tool which could consider different trajectoreis and engine perfromance variables. Various plume flow model improvement studies were ongoing at the time of the 51-L accident. Since that time, base heating and plume methodology improvements have continued as part of the overall emphasis on Shuttle design assurance before resuming flight schedule.

Bender, Robert L.↗

Emission-line variability in Seyfert galaxies

Observations and theory of emission-line variability in Seyfert galaxies are reviewed in the context of standard photoionization models of the emission-line regions. Expected time scales for variability and systematic effects which can give misleading results are discussed. Published observations of emission-line variability are summarized. The implications of these observations are noted, particularly the physical consequences of broad-line regions that variability analysis indicates are an order of magnitude smaller than predicted by standard photoionization models.

Peterson, Bradley M.↗

Global change data sets: Excerpts from the Master Directory, version 2.0

The recent awakening to the reality of human-induced changes to the environment has resulted in an organized effort to promote global change research. The goal of this research as outlined by NASA's Earth System Science Committee (Earth System Science: A closer View, 1988) is to understand the entire Earth system on a global scale by describing how its component parts and their interactions have evolved, how they function, and how they may be expected to evolve on all timescales. The practical result is the capacity to predict that evolution over the next decade to century. Key variables important for the study of global change include external forcing factors (solar radiance, UV flux), radiatively and chemically important trace species (CO2, CH4, N2O, etc.), atmospheric response variables (temperature, pressure, winds), landsurface properties (river run-off, snow cover, albedo, soil moisture, vegetation cover), and oceanic variables (sea surface temperature, sea ice extent, sea level ocean wind stress, currents, chlorophyll, biogeochemical fluxes). The purpose of this document is to identify existing data sets available (both remotely sensed and in situ data) covering some of these variables. This is not intended to be a complete list of global change data, but merely a highlight of what is available. The information was extracted from the Master Directory (MD), an on-line scientific data information service which may be used by any researcher. This report contains the coverage dates for the data sets, sources (satellites, instruments) of the data and where they are archived.

Beier, Joy↗

A New Principle of Sound Frequency Analysis

In connection with the study of aircraft and propeller noises, the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics has developed an instrument for sound-frequency analysis which differs fundamentally from previous types, and which, owing to its simplicity of principle, construction, and operation, has proved to be of value in this investigation. The method is based on the well-known fact that the Ohmic loss in an electrical resistance is equal to the sum of the losses of the harmonic components of a complex wave, except for the case in which any two components approach or attain vectorial identity, in which case the Ohmic loss is increased by a definite amount. The principle of frequency analysis has been presented mathematically and a number of distinct advantages relative to previous methods have been pointed out. An automatic recording instrument embodying this principle is described in detail. It employs a beat-frequency oscillator as a source of variable frequency. A large number of experiments have verified the predicted superiority of the method. A number of representative records are presented.

Theodorsen, Theodore↗