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At least 1,315 records · Page 73
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DOE OSTI2023

The Evolution and Mass Dependence of Galaxy Cluster Pressure Profiles at 0.05 ≤ z ≤ 0.60 and 4 × 10 14 M ⊙ ≤ M 500 ≤ 30 × 10 14 M ⊙

Abstract We have combined X-ray observations from Chandra with Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect data from Planck and Bolocam to measure intracluster medium pressure profiles from 0.03 R 500 ≤ R ≤ 5 R 500 for a sample of 21 low- z galaxy clusters with a median redshift of 〈 z 〉 = 0.08 and a median mass of 〈 M 500 〉 = 6.1 × 10 14 M ⊙ and a sample of 19 mid- z galaxy clusters with 〈 z 〉 = 0.50 and 〈 M 500 〉 = 10.6 × 10 14 M ⊙ . The mean scaled pressure in the low- z sample is lower at small radii and higher at large radii, a trend that is accurately reproduced in similarly selected samples from The Three Hundred simulations. This difference appears to be primarily due to dynamical state at small radii, evolution at intermediate radii, and a combination of evolution and mass dependence at large radii. Furthermore, the overall flattening of the mean scaled pressure profile in the low- z sample compared to the mid- z sample is consistent with expectations due to differences in the mass accretion rate and the fractional impact of feedback mechanisms. In agreement with previous studies, the fractional scatter about the mean scaled pressure profile reaches a minimum of ≃20% near 0.5 R 500 . This scatter is consistent between the low- z and mid- z samples at all radii, suggesting it is not strongly impacted by sample selection, and this general behavior is reproduced in The Three Hundred simulations. Finally, analytic functions that approximately describe the mass and redshift trends in mean pressure profile shape are provided.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the Anticorrelation between Duration and Redshift in Gamma-Ray Bursts

Abstract For gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) with durations greater than two seconds (so-called long GRBs), the intrinsic prompt gamma-ray emission appears, on average, to last longer for bursts at lower redshifts. We explore the nature of this duration–redshift anticorrelation, describing systems and conditions in which this cosmological evolution could arise. In particular, we explore its dependence on the metallicity of a massive star progenitor, because we can securely count on the average stellar metallicity to increase with decreasing redshift. Although stars with higher metallicity/lower redshift lose mass and angular momentum through line-driven winds, in some cases these stars are able to form more extended accretion disks when they collapse, potentially leading to longer-duration GRBs. We also examine how this duration–redshift trend may show up in interacting binary models composed of a massive star and compact object companion, recently suggested to be the progenitors of radio-bright GRBs. Under certain conditions, mass loss and equation-of-state effects from massive stars with higher metallicity and lower redshift can decrease the binary separation. This can then lead to spin-up of the massive star and allow for a longer-duration GRB upon the massive star’s collapse. Finally, the duration–redshift trend may also be supported by a relatively larger population of small-separation binaries born in situ at low redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Uniform Analysis of Debris Disks with the Gemini Planet Imager. I. An Empirical Search for Perturbations from Planetary Companions in Polarized Light Images

The Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) has excelled in imaging debris disks in the near-infrared. The GPI Exoplanet Survey imaged 24 debris disks in polarized H-band light, while other programs observed half of these disks in polarized J and/or K1 bands. Using these data, we present a uniform analysis of the morphology of each disk to find asymmetries suggestive of perturbations, particularly those due to planet–disk interactions. The multiwavelength surface brightness, disk color, and geometry permit the identification of any asymmetries such as warps or disk offsets from the central star. We find that 19 of the disks in this sample exhibit asymmetries in surface brightness, disk color, disk geometry, or a combination of the three, suggesting that for this sample, perturbations, as seen in scattered light, are common. The relationship between these perturbations and potential planets in the system is discussed. We also explore correlations among stellar temperatures, ages, disk properties, and observed perturbations. We find significant trends between the vertical aspect ratio and the stellar temperature, disk radial extent, and the dust grain size distribution power law, q. We also confirm a trend between the disk color and stellar effective temperature, where the disk becomes increasingly red/neutral with increasing temperature. Such results have important implications for the evolution of debris disk systems around stars of various spectral types.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

[C/N] Ages for Red Giants and Their Implications for Galactic Archaeology

Red giants undergo the first dredge-up, a mixing event that creates a connection between their surface [C/N] and their mass and age. We derive a [C/N]–age relationship for red giants calibrated on Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) DR17 abundances and APOKASC-3 asteroseismic ages. We find that we can use [C/N] to reliably recover asteroseismic ages between 1 and 10 Gyr with average uncertainties of 1.64 Gyr. We find that [C/N] yields concordant ages, with modest offsets, for stars in different evolutionary states. We also find that the [C/N]–birth mass relationship is robust for luminous giants, and argue that this is an advantage over direct asteroseismology for these stars. We use our ages to infer Galactic birth abundance trends in [Fe/H] and [Mg/H] as a function of position in the Galactic disk. We filter out stars with kinematic or chemical properties consistent with migrators and find the number of migrators to be much lower than expected by standard radial migration prescriptions. The remaining population shows weak chemical evolution trends, on the order of 0.01 dex Gyr −1 , over the last 10 Gyr across a wide range of radii.

Roberts, John D. [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evidence for Cosmic Acceleration Is Robust to Observed Correlations between Type Ia Supernova Luminosity and Stellar Age

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are powerful standardizable candles for constraining cosmological models and provided the first evidence of the accelerated expansion of the universe. Their precision derives from empirical correlations, now measured from >1000 SNe Ia, between their luminosities, light-curve shapes, colors, and most recently with the stellar mass of their host galaxy. As mass correlates with other galaxy properties, alternative parameters have been investigated to improve SN Ia standardization though none have been shown to significantly alter the determination of cosmological parameters. We re-examine a recent claim, based on 34 SN Ia in nearby passive host galaxies, of a 0.05 mag Gyr -1 dependence of standardized SN Ia luminosity on host age, which, if extrapolated to higher redshifts, would be a bias up to 0.25 mag, challenging the inference of dark energy. We reanalyze this sample of hosts using both the original method and a Bayesian hierarchical model and find after a fuller accounting of the uncertainties the significance of a dependence on age to be ≤2σ and ~1σ after the removal of a single poorly sampled SN Ia. Here, to test the claim that a trend seen in old stellar populations can be applied to younger ages, we extend our analysis to a larger sample that includes young hosts. We find the residual dependence of host age (after all standardization typically employed for cosmological measurements) to be consistent with zero for 254 SNe Ia from the Pantheon sample, ruling out the large but low significance trend seen in passive hosts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cool Cores in Clusters of Galaxies in the Dark Energy Survey

We search for the presence of cool cores in optically selected galaxy clusters from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and investigate their prevalence as a function of redshift and cluster richness. Clusters were selected from the redMaPPer analysis of three years of DES observations that have archival Chandra X-ray observations, giving a sample of 99 clusters with a redshift range of 0.11 < z < 0.87 and a richness range of 25 < λ < 207. Using the X-ray data, the core temperature was compared to the outer temperature to identify clusters where the core temperature is a factor of 0.7 or less than the outer temperature. We found a cool core fraction of approximately 20% with no significant trend in the cool core fraction with either redshift or richness.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Results of Application Demonstration of Autonomous Offshore Power System Supporting Multiple Mobile and Static Assets

Over the last decade, several technology trends have dominated the innovation cycle within the terrestrial economy. Electrification, cloud computing, decarbonization, digitization, and autonomy are representative examples of macro trends that have had a rapid and fundamental impact; an impact felt not only in user-facing technologies, such as electric vehicles and software-as-a-service, but also in the infrastructure required to deliver those technologies. However, the scale of the impact and rollout has not been felt equally between the terrestrial and ocean economies. Here, the innovation cycle in the ocean economy is significantly slower. What accounts for the difference and are there solutions to this issue?

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

Compatibility of Elastomers with Polyoxymethylene Dimethyl Ethers and Blends with Diesel

Polyoxymethylene dimethyl ethers (PODEs) have shown promise as candidates for diesel fuel blendstocks due to their low sooting tendency, high cetane number, and diesel-comparable boiling point range. However, there is a lack of literature regarding compatibility of PODEs with common automotive elastomers, which would be a prerequisite to their adoption into the marketplace. To address this need, an exposure study and complementary solubility analysis were undertaken. A commercially available blend of PODEs with polymerization degree ranging from 3 to 6 was blended with diesel certification fuel at 0, 33, 50, 67, at 100% by mass. Elastomer coupons were exposed to the various blends for a period of 4 weeks and evaluated for volume swell. The elastomer materials included multiple fluoroelastomers (Viton and fluorosilicone) and acrylonitrile butadiene rubbers (NBR), as well as neoprene, polyurethane, epichlorohydrin (ECO), PVC-nitrile blend (OZO), ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM), styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR), and silicone. The exposure results indicated overall poor compatibility for PODE, with every elastomer except for fluorosilicone exhibiting greater than 30% volume swell at the 33% blend level. The general trend across the elastomers was either a consistent increase in volume swell with PODE concentration, or maximum in volume swell at an intermediate blend fraction. One notable exception is EPDM, which is not generally compatible with diesel fuel and which exhibited a reduction in volume swell with increasing PODE concentration. The same elastomers and PODE/diesel blends were evaluated using Hansen solubility parameter analysis, which predicted similar trends to the exposure study with the exception of ECO. From these results, we conclude that adoption of PODEs as a diesel fuel blendstock will require either the development of specialized elastomers, or that the blend fraction be kept to a low level to maintain compatibility with existing elastomers.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

DME-to-Propane Mixture Effects on a Light Duty Compression Ignition Engine

Fuels that can be produced in a sustainable manner are of high interest because they can provide an essential step toward net zero emissions vehicles. This study examines the combustion of two such fuels, Dimethyl Ether (DME) and propane, in a compression ignition, 4-cylinder, 2.2L engine running with mixtures of DME-to-Propane ranging of 100%-0%, 85%-15%, 75%-25%, and 65%-35% by weight. Testing was conducted at 2000rpm - 100Nm, an important representative point in the FTP certification cycle. For each fuel mixture, conditions tested include sweeps of boost, EGR and injection pressure. Here, tests are mainly conducted at a constant combustion timing with CA10 of -1 deg with respect to TDC, with an engine controller combustion feedback system based on in-cylinder sampling of pressure. Trends of NOx, HC, and CO are similar for the range of DME-to-propane, from 100%-0% to 75%-25%. Boost and injection pressures had the most notable impact on the heat release traces. Higher boost, from stoichiometric to lean resulted in approximately a 3-5% increase on cycle efficiency. Fuel injection pressures resulted in about 1% gain per 200bar. Results also illustrated that EGR is effective in reducing NOx but causes notable degradation of cycle efficiency. The emissions for DME-propane mixtures with 65%-35% had a different trend, with CO and HC exceeding the runs with lower propane content by 2 to 3-fold. As propane content increases, the pressure rise rates become higher, and with 65%-35% mixtures, rates easily exceed 12bar/deg. The increased rise rates correlate with early injection timings but the rates can be reduced, with higher boost and lower injection pressures. The result of the approach, however, leads to lower thermal efficiencies, decreasing efficiency by over 5% between neat DME and the highest propane ratios.

Combustion and combustion processes↗
DOE OSTI2025

Charge radii measurements of exotic tin isotopes in the proximity of $N=50$ and $N=82$

We report nuclear charge radii for the isotopes $^{104-134}$Sn, measured using two different collinear laser spectroscopy techniques at ISOLDE-CERN. These measurements clarify the archlike trend in charge radii along the isotopic chain and reveal an odd-even staggering that is more pronounced near the $N=50$ and $N=82$ shell closures. The observed local trends are well described by both nuclear density functional theory and valence space in-medium similarity renormalization group calculations. Both theories predict appreciable contributions from beyond-mean-field correlations to the charge radii of the neutron-deficient tin isotopes. The models fall short, however, of reproducing the magnitude of the known $B(E2)$ transition probabilities, highlighting the remaining challenges in achieving a unified description of both ground-state properties and collective phenomena.

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement report: Understanding the seasonal cycle of Southern Ocean aerosols

Abstract. The remoteness and extreme conditions of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic region have meant that observations in this region are rare, and typically restricted to summertime during research or resupply voyages. Observations of aerosols outside of the summer season are typically limited to long-term stations, such as Kennaook / Cape Grim (KCG; 40.7∘ S, 144.7∘ E), which is situated in the northern latitudes of the Southern Ocean, and Antarctic research stations, such as the Japanese operated Syowa (SYO; 69.0∘ S, 39.6∘ E). Measurements in the midlatitudes of the Southern Ocean are important, particularly in light of recent observations that highlighted the latitudinal gradient that exists across the region in summertime. Here we present 2 years (March 2016–March 2018) of observations from Macquarie Island (MQI; 54.5∘ S, 159.0∘ E) of aerosol (condensation nuclei larger than 10 nm, CN10) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN at various supersaturations) concentrations. This important multi-year data set is characterised, and its features are compared with the long-term data sets from KCG and SYO together with those from recent, regionally relevant voyages. CN10 concentrations were the highest at KCG by a factor of ∼50 % across all non-winter seasons compared to the other two stations, which were similar (summer medians of 530, 426 and 468 cm−3 at KCG, MQI and SYO, respectively). In wintertime, seasonal minima at KCG and MQI were similar (142 and 152 cm−3, respectively), with SYO being distinctly lower (87 cm−3), likely the result of the reduction in sea spray aerosol generation due to the sea ice ocean cover around the site. CN10 seasonal maxima were observed at the stations at different times of year, with KCG and MQI exhibiting January maxima and SYO having a distinct February high. Comparison of CCN0.5 data between KCG and MQI showed similar overall trends with summertime maxima and wintertime minima; however, KCG exhibited slightly (∼10 %) higher concentrations in summer (medians of 158 and 145 cm−3, respectively), whereas KCG showed ∼40 % lower concentrations than MQI in winter (medians of 57 and 92 cm−3, respectively). Spatial and temporal trends in the data were analysed further by contrasting data to coincident observations that occurred aboard several voyages of the RSV Aurora Australis and the RV Investigator. Results from this study are important for validating and improving our models and highlight the heterogeneity of this pristine region and the need for further long-term observations that capture the seasonal cycles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Meteorological characteristics of extreme ozone pollution events in China and their future predictions

Ozone (O 3 ) has become one of the most concerning air pollutants in China in recent decades. In this study, based on surface observations, reanalysis data, global atmospheric chemistry model simulations, and multi-model future predictions, meteorological characteristics conducive to extreme O 3 pollution in various regions of China are investigated, and their historical changes and future trends are analyzed. During the most severe O 3 polluted months, the chemical production of O 3 is enhanced under the hot and dry conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) in June 2018 and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in July 2017, while regional transport is the main reason for the severe O3 pollution over the Sichuan Basin (SCB) in July 2015 and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in September 2019. Over the last 4 decades, the frequencies of high-temperature and low-relative-humidity conditions increased in 2000–2019 relative to 1980–1999, indicating that O 3 pollution in both the NCP and YRD has become more frequent under historical climate change. In the SCB and PRD, the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns similar to those during the most polluted months increased, together with the more frequent hot and dry conditions, contributing to the increases in severe O 3 pollution in the SCB and PRD during 1980–2019. In the future (by 2100), the frequencies of months with anomalous high temperature show stronger increasing trends in the high-forcing scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP5-8.5)) compared to the sustainable scenario (SSP1-2.6) in China. It suggests that high anthropogenic forcing will not only lead to slow economic growth and climate warming but also likely result in environmental pollution issues.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

AERO-MAP: a data compilation and modeling approach to understand spatial variability in fine- and coarse-mode aerosol composition

Abstract. Aerosol particles are an important part of the Earth climate system, and their concentrations are spatially and temporally heterogeneous, as well as being variable in size and composition. Particles can interact with incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation, change cloud properties, affect photochemistry, impact surface air quality, change the albedo of snow and ice, and modulate carbon dioxide uptake by the land and ocean. High particulate matter concentrations at the surface represent an important public health hazard. There are substantial data sets describing aerosol particles in the literature or in public health databases, but they have not been compiled for easy use by the climate and air quality modeling community. Here, we present a new compilation of PM2.5 and PM10 surface observations, including measurements of aerosol composition, focusing on the spatial variability across different observational stations. Climate modelers are constantly looking for multiple independent lines of evidence to verify their models, and in situ surface concentration measurements, taken at the level of human settlement, present a valuable source of information about aerosols and their human impacts complementarily to the column averages or integrals often retrieved from satellites. We demonstrate a method for comparing the data sets to outputs from global climate models that are the basis for projections of future climate and large-scale aerosol transport patterns that influence local air quality. Annual trends and seasonal cycles are discussed briefly and are included in the compilation. Overall, most of the planet or even the land fraction does not have sufficient observations of surface concentrations – and, especially, particle composition – to characterize and understand the current distribution of particles. Climate models without ammonium nitrate aerosols omit ∼ 10 % of the globally averaged surface concentration of aerosol particles in both PM2.5 and PM10 size fractions, with up to 50 % of the surface concentrations not being included in some regions. In these regions, climate model aerosol forcing projections are likely to be incorrect as they do not include important trends in short-lived climate forcers.

Mahowald, Natalie M. (ORCID:000000022873997X)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Meteorological drivers of the low-cloud radiative feedback pattern effect and its uncertainty

The radiative feedback pattern effect remains a large source of uncertainty for both projections of future trends and interpretations of past trends in global temperature. The pattern effect is defined as the difference in feedbacks between transient and long-term simulations, and past work shows that is primarily attributed to changes in the marine low-cloud radiative feedback. Here we use low cloud meteorological kernels to map out both the primary cloud controlling factors through which changing surface temperature patterns drive changes in low-cloud feedback, as well as the sources of model spread. We find that the pattern effect is almost entirely driven by changes in estimated inversion strength (EIS) in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in the South East Pacific and Southern Ocean. In both past and future simulations, inter-model spread is primarily caused by model differences in the sensitivity of low clouds to the environmental conditions, rather than differences in the simulated evolution of environmental conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An evaluation of the E3SMv1 Arctic ocean and sea-ice regionally refined model

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a state-of-the-science Earth system model (ESM) with the ability to focus horizontal resolution of its multiple components in specific areas. Regionally refined global ESMs are motivated by the need to explicitly resolve, rather than parameterize, relevant physics within the regions of refined resolution, while offering significant computational cost savings relative to the respective cost of configurations with high-resolution (HR) everywhere on the globe. In this paper, we document results from the first Arctic regionally refined E3SM configuration for the ocean and sea-ice components (E3SM-Arctic-OSI), while employing data-based atmosphere, land, and hydrology components. Our aim is an improved representation of the Arctic coupled ocean and sea-ice state, its variability and trends, and the exchanges of mass and property fluxes between the Arctic and the sub-Arctic. We find that E3SM-Arctic-OSI increases the realism of simulated Arctic ocean and sea-ice conditions compared to a similar low-resolution E3SM simulation without the Arctic regional refinement in ocean and sea-ice components (E3SM-LR-OSI). In particular, exchanges through the main Arctic gateways are greatly improved with respect to E3SM-LR-OSI. Other aspects, such as the Arctic freshwater content variability and sea-ice trends, are also satisfactorily simulated. Yet, other features, such as the upper-ocean stratification and the sea-ice thickness distribution, need further improvements, involving either more advanced parameterizations, model tuning, or additional grid refinements. Overall, E3SM-Arctic-OSI offers an improved representation of the Arctic system relative to E3SM-LR-OSI, at a fraction (15 %) of the computational cost of comparable global high-resolution configurations, while permitting exchanges with the lower-latitude oceans that cannot be directly accounted for in Arctic regional models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of global terrestrial evapotranspiration using state-of-the-art approaches in remote sensing, machine learning and land surface modeling

Abstract. Evapotranspiration (ET) is critical in linking global water, carbon and energy cycles. However, direct measurement of global terrestrial ET is not feasible. Here, we first reviewed the basic theory and state-of-the-art approaches for estimating global terrestrial ET, including remote-sensing-based physical models, machine-learning algorithms and land surface models (LSMs). We then utilized 4 remote-sensing-based physical models, 2 machine-learning algorithms and 14 LSMs to analyze the spatial and temporal variations in global terrestrial ET. The results showed that the ensemble means of annual global terrestrial ET estimated by these three categories of approaches agreed well, with values ranging from 589.6 mm yr-1 (6.56×104 km3 yr-1) to 617.1 mm yr-1 (6.87×10 4 km3 yr -1 ). For the period from 1982 to 2011, both the ensembles of remote-sensing-based physical models and machine-learning algorithms suggested increasing trends in global terrestrial ET (0.62 mm yr -2 with a significance level of p<0.05 and 0.38 mm yr -2 with a significance level of p<0.05, respectively). In contrast, the ensemble mean of the LSMs showed no statistically significant change (0.23 mm yr -2 , p>0.05), although many of the individual LSMs reproduced an increasing trend. Nevertheless, all 20 models used in this study showed that anthropogenic Earth greening had a positive role in increasing terrestrial ET. The concurrent small interannual variability, i.e., relative stability, found in all estimates of global terrestrial ET, suggests that a potential planetary boundary exists in regulating global terrestrial ET, with the value of this boundary being around 600 mm yr -1 . Uncertainties among approaches were identified in specific regions, particularly in the Amazon Basin and arid/semiarid regions. Improvements in parameterizing water stress and canopy dynamics, the utilization of new available satellite retrievals and deep-learning methods, and model–data fusion will advance our predictive understanding of global terrestrial ET.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating mesoscale model predictions of diurnal speedup events in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area of California

Mesoscale model predictions of wind, turbulence, and wind energy capacity factors are evaluated in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area of California (APWRA), where the diurnal regional sea breeze and associated terrain-driven speedup flows drive wind energy production during the summer months. Results from the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 4.4 using a novel three-dimensional planetary boundary layer (3D PBL) scheme, which treats both vertical and horizontal turbulent mixing, are compared to those using a well-established one-dimensional (1D) scheme that treats only vertical turbulent mixing. Each configuration is evaluated over a nearly 3-month-long period during the Hill Flow Study, and due to the recurring nature of the observed speedup flows, diurnal composite averaging is used to capture robust trends in model performance. Both model configurations showed similar overall skill. The general timing and direction of the speedup flows is captured, but their magnitude is overestimated within a typical wind turbine rotor layer. Both also fail to capture a persistent observed near-surface jet-like flow, likely due to the limited grid resolution that is typical of mesoscale models. However, the 3D PBL configuration shows several minor improvements over the 1D PBL configuration, including improved wind speed and turbulence kinetic energy profiles during the accelerating phase of the speedup events, as well as reduced positive wind speed bias at surface stations across the APWRA region. Using a mesoscale wind farm parameterization, modeled capacity factors are also compared to monthly data reported to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) during the study period. Although the monthly trend in the data is captured, both model configurations overestimate capacity factors by roughly 7 %–11 %. Through model evaluation, this study provides confidence in the 3D PBL scheme for wind energy applications in complex terrain and provides guidance for future testing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance of wind assessment datasets in United States coastal areas

The atmospheric dynamics that occur near the intersection of land and water offer exciting and challenging opportunities for wind energy deployment in coastal locations. New models and tools are continually being developed in support of wind resource assessment, and three recent products are explored in this work for their performance in representing characteristics of the wind resource at coastal locations: the Global Wind Atlas 3 (GWA3), the 2023 National Offshore Wind dataset (NOW-23), and the wind climate simulations that are a component of the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Long-Term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED Climate). These relatively new products are freely available and user-friendly so that anyone – from a utility-scale developer to a resident or business owner – can evaluate the potential for wind energy generation at their location of interest. The validations in this work provide guidance on the accuracy of wind resource assessments for coastal customers interested in installing small or midsize wind turbines (≤ 1 MW in capacity) to support energy needs at the residential, business, or community scale, such as the island and remotely located participants of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project. At 23 coastal locations across the United States, dataset performance varies according to different evaluation metrics. All three recent datasets tend to overestimate the observed coastal wind resource. GWA3 produces the smallest annual average wind speed relative errors, whereas WTK-LED Climate is in best agreement in terms of representing diurnal wind speed cycles. NOW-23 is the highest performing of the datasets for representing seasonal and interannual trends in the coastal wind resource. While GWA3 and WTK-LED Climate are relatively insensitive to the dataset output heights selected for wind resource assessment at small and midsize wind turbine hub heights (20–60 m), significant variation in the NOW-23 representation of wind shear across the wind profile in the lowest 100 m of the atmosphere leads to notable differences in wind speed estimates according to the dataset output heights selected for evaluation. GWA3 exhibits challenges in the representation of observed wind speed diurnal cycles at small and midsize turbine hub heights, likely due to the dataset's consistent treatment of hourly wind speed trends regardless of altitude.

17 WIND ENERGY↗