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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

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DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning-Accelerated First-Principles Molecular Dynamics Reveals C–C Coupling Mechanisms toward Ethylene on Cu(100)

Here, the Cu(100) termination has been identified as the most effective facet for converting CO and CO 2 into ethylene. To enhance both the activity and selectivity of ethylene production, we perform machine-learning-accelerated, first-principles molecular dynamics simulations at 298 K in an explicit solvent at pH 7 to elucidate the C–C coupling mechanism─the critical reaction step in forming C 2+ products. Among the six potential C–C coupling pathways, the most feasible are CO* dimerization and CO – CHO* and CHO* – CHO* couplings. Using the computational hydrogen electrode method, we demonstrate that all three pathways are equally accessible at −0.6 V vs RHE. At a potential below −1.0 V vs RHE, the thermodynamic barriers for the CO – CHO* and CHO* – CHO* pathways become negligible. Our computational findings explain the experimental observations, particularly the absence of C 2+ products above −0.4 V vs RHE and the peaks in ethylene production near −0.6 and −1.0 V vs RHE. Since CHO* acts as a key intermediate common to both C–C coupling and CH 4 formation, we propose that suppressing CHO* hydrogenation would inhibit CH 4 pathways, thereby maximizing ethylene selectivity.

CO2 reduction↗

DOE OSTI2026

Agentic artificial intelligence for multistage physics experiments at a large-scale user facility particle accelerator

We present a language-model-driven agentic artificial intelligence (AI) system to autonomously execute multistage physics experiments on a production synchrotron light source. Implemented at the Advanced Light Source particle accelerator, the system translates natural language user prompts into structured execution plans that combine archive data retrieval, control-system channel resolution, automated script generation, controlled machine interaction, and analysis. In a representative machine physics task, we show that preparation time was reduced by 2 orders of magnitude relative to manual scripting even for a system expert, while operator-standard safety constraints were strictly upheld. Core architectural features, plan-first orchestration, bounded tool access, and dynamic capability selection, enable transparent, auditable execution with fully reproducible artifacts. These results establish a blueprint for the safe integration of agentic AI into accelerator experiments and demanding machine physics studies, as well as routine operations, with direct portability across accelerators worldwide and, more broadly, to other large-scale scientific infrastructures.

Accelerator/storage ring control systems↗

DOE OSTI2025

Gene network centrality analysis identifies key regulators coordinating day-night metabolic transitions in Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 despite limited accuracy in predicting direct regulator-gene interactions

Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 is a model organism for studying circadian regulation and bioproduction, where precise temporal control of metabolism significantly impacts photosynthetic efficiency and CO 2 -to-bioproduct conversion. Despite extensive research on core clock components, our understanding of the broader regulatory network orchestrating genome-wide metabolic transitions remains incomplete. We address this gap by applying machine learning tools and network analysis to investigate the transcriptional architecture governing circadian-controlled gene expression. While our approach showed moderate accuracy in predicting individual transcription factor-gene interactions - a common challenge with real expression data - network-level topological analysis successfully revealed the organizational principles of circadian regulation. Our analysis identified distinct regulatory modules coordinating day-night metabolic transitions, with photosynthesis and carbon/nitrogen metabolism controlled by day-phase regulators, while nighttime modules orchestrate glycogen mobilization and redox metabolism. Through network centrality analysis, we identified potentially significant but previously understudied transcriptional regulators: HimA as a putative DNA architecture regulator, and TetR and SrrB as potential coordinators of nighttime metabolism, working alongside established global regulators RpaA and RpaB. This work demonstrates how network-level analysis can extract biologically meaningful insights despite limitations in predicting direct regulatory interactions. The regulatory principles uncovered here advance our understanding of how cyanobacteria coordinate complex metabolic transitions and may inform metabolic engineering strategies for enhanced photosynthetic bioproduction from CO 2 .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Climatic and Socioeconomic Drivers of Water Use and Their Spatio‐Temporal Patterns for Small and Mid‐Sized Cities in the Contiguous United States

This study explores the drivers of urban water use and their spatial-temporal patterns in 142 small and mid-sized cities across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) by analyzing the data directly collected from these cities and using advanced machine learning techniques. We identify five distinguished clusters across CONUS, each showing unique trends of the impact of drivers on water use. We find that socioeconomic factors significantly influence water use in eastern and southwestern cities, while climatic variables such as precipitation and temperature range dominate in central and northwestern regions. Temporal analysis reveals the impacts of major socioeconomic and climatic disruptions on urban water use in the period 2011–2021, including the COVID lockdown, the rapid growth of data centers, and the drought of 2012. In addition, our analysis suggests that economic growth in small and mid-sized US cities continues to be accompanied by rising water use, contrasting with the opposite trend observed in large cities in prior studies. This implies that as smaller cities develop, their water use may increase above current levels until incomes reach a higher threshold, highlighting the need to improve water use efficiency. This study also presents useful insights for developing effective water demand management strategies in response to climatic variability and socioeconomic growth in small and mid-sized cities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Equation‐Free Surrogate Modeling of Geophysical Flows at the Intersection of Machine Learning and Data Assimilation

Abstract There is a growing interest in developing data‐driven reduced‐order models for atmospheric and oceanic flows that are trained on data obtained either from high‐resolution simulations or satellite observations. The data‐driven models are non‐intrusive in nature and offer significant computational savings compared to large‐scale numerical models. These low‐dimensional models can be utilized to reduce the computational burden of generating forecasts and estimating model uncertainty without losing the key information needed for data assimilation (DA) to produce accurate state estimates. This paper aims at exploring an equation‐free surrogate modeling approach at the intersection of machine learning and DA in Earth system modeling. With this objective, we introduce an end‐to‐end non‐intrusive reduced‐order modeling (NIROM) framework equipped with contributions in modal decomposition, time series prediction, optimal sensor placement, and sequential DA. Specifically, we use proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to identify the dominant structures of the flow, and a long short‐term memory network to model the dynamics of the POD modes. The NIROM is integrated within the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF) to incorporate sparse and noisy observations at optimal sensor locations obtained through QR pivoting. The feasibility and the benefit of the proposed framework are demonstrated for the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) V2 data set. Our results indicate that the NIROM is stable for long‐term forecasting and can model dynamics of SST with a reasonable level of accuracy. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy of the NIROM gets improved by almost one order of magnitude by the DEnKF algorithm.

Pawar, Suraj↗

DOE OSTI2022

Influence of Fault Architecture on Induced Earthquake Sequence Evolution Revealed by High-Resolution Focal Mechanism Solutions

The increasing seismicity and improved seismic observation network in recent years provide an opportunity to explore factors that influence the triggering processes, spatiotemporal evolution, and maximum magnitude of induced sequences. We map the fault architecture and stress state of four induced sequences in Oklahoma to determine their influence on the seismicity. We systematically relocate the earthquakes and compute hundreds of focal mechanisms of small to medium events (1.0 < M < 5.1) using various techniques, including machine learning, for the Guthrie, Woodward, Cushing, and Fairview sequences. The detailed fault geometry and spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity and stress states reveal different dominant driving forces for each sequence. In Cushing and Fairview (largest event ≥M5.0), the main fault structures are near-vertical narrow strike-slip faults, with most of the small earthquake fault planes optimally oriented. The two sequences exhibit discontinuous temporal migration but strong earthquake self-driven rupture growth. In Guthrie and Woodward (largest event <M5.0), the two sequences show more complex diffuse fault structures with varying dipping angles along depth. The inverted focal mechanisms show a mix of strike-slip faulting and normal faulting in both sequences, and the normal faulting events are less optimally oriented than strike-slip events. The two sequences are dominated by continuous diffusive migration in time driven by pore pressure propagation. The above results suggest that fault architecture and stress state influence sequence evolution, major driving forces, and possibly maximum magnitude.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Self-consistent equilibrium and transport simulations for NSTX-U plasmas enhanced via machine learning surrogate models

The Control-Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM) is an advanced equilibrium and transport code designed for simulating tokamak discharges at computational speeds suitable for control applications. COTSIM’s modular framework enables users to select models that balance accuracy with speed according to specific needs, allowing the code to operate from fast to faster-than-real-time performance levels. This work presents recent enhancements to COTSIM’s predictive accuracy for NSTX-U scenarios, achieved by integrating neural-network-based surrogate models and self-consistent equilibrium calculations. To improve source deposition predictions, a surrogate model for NUBEAM has been incorporated. Additionally, a surrogate model for the Multi-Mode Module (MMM) now supports predictions of anomalous thermal, momentum, and particle diffusivities—key factors for modeling the evolution of temperature and rotation. Each surrogate model was specifically trained for the NSTX-U operational regime to enhance COTSIM’s accuracy while maintaining computational efficiency. Moreover, COTSIM now couples fixed-boundary equilibrium solvers with its transport solvers, enabling self-consistent predictions of plasma profiles and equilibrium evolution over the discharge. Simulation results demonstrate strong agreement between COTSIM and TRANSP predictions for NSTX-U discharges. These substantial advancements expand COTSIM’s utility in model-based control applications for NSTX-U. Potential applications include simultaneous optimization of equilibrium and transport scenarios, integration into digital twins, real-time profile estimation (e.g., temperature and rotation) from limited or noisy measurements, and advanced feedback-based scenario control.

Equilibrium and transport modeling↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Using Open Data Sources for Detection of Nuclear Proliferation Activities (U)

In FY2020, Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) in collaboration with the Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics (SCAIDA) at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (VT) and funded by the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development, began developing a demonstration prototype system that uses multiple machine learning and data analytic methods on large-scale open data sources to identify new, developing, and/or undeclared nuclear programs. Using the announcement in May 2018 of the proposed Savannah River Plutonium Processing Facility (SRPPF) as a test subject, the goal of this 2-year project is to forecast the SRPPF using only data prior to May 2018. The project work is split into a preliminary prototype development for the first year with an initial evaluation of viability followed by the second year of development to create an integrated prototype system and more extensive performance evaluation. This report documents the results of the preliminary-phase tasks.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deducing the EOS of dense neutron star matter with machine learning

Abstract The interior of a neutron star is a unique astrophysical laboratory for studying matter at extreme densities and pressures beyond what is replicable in terrestrial experiments. While there is no direct way to simulate the interior of these stars, one promising avenue to learning more about the equation of state (EOS) of such matter is through X‐rays emitted from the star's surface. The current state‐of‐the‐art method for inference of EOS from a star's X‐ray spectra uses piece‐wise, simulation‐based likelihoods that rely on theoretical assumptions complicated by systematic uncertainties. To reduce the dimensionality of the problem, this method infers macroscopic properties of the star (mass and radius) from emitted X‐ray spectra, and from those quantities infers the EOS. This work approaches the same problem using machine learning techniques, demonstrating a series of enhancements to the current state‐of‐the‐art by realistic uncertainty quantification and reducing the need for theoretical assumptions. We also demonstrate novel inference of the EOS directly from high‐dimensional simulated X‐ray spectra from neutron stars that negate the need for a piece‐wise approach. This inference allows for a natural propagation of uncertainties from the X‐ray spectra by conditioning the discussed networks on realistic sources of uncertainty for each star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Coupling flux balance analysis with reactive transport modeling through machine learning for rapid and stable simulation of microbial metabolic switching

Integrating genome-scale metabolic networks with reactive transport models (RTMs) provides a detailed description of the dynamic changes in microbial growth and metabolism. Despite promising demonstrations in the past, computational inefficiency has been pointed out as a critical issue to overcome because it requires repeated application of linear programming (LP) to obtain flux balance analysis (FBA) solutions in every time step and spatial grid. To address this challenge, we propose a new simulation method where we train and validate artificial neural networks (ANNs) using randomly sampled FBA solutions and incorporate the resulting surrogate FBA model (represented as algebraic equations) into RTMs as source/sink terms. We demonstrate the efficiency of our method via a case study of Shewanella oneidensis MR-1. During aerobic growth on lactate, S. oneidensis produces metabolic byproducts (such as pyruvate and acetate), which are subsequently consumed as alternative carbon sources when the preferred nutrients are depleted. To effectively simulate these complex dynamics, we used a cybernetic approach that models metabolic switches as the outcome of dynamic competition among multiple growth options. In both zero-dimensional batch and one-dimensional column configurations, the ANN-based surrogate models achieved substantial reduction of computational time by several orders of magnitude compared to the original LP-based FBA models. Moreover, the ANN models produced robust solutions without any special measures to prevent numerical instability. These developments significantly promote our ability to utilize genome-scale networks in complex, multi-physics, and multi-dimensional ecosystem modeling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Using a Regression Forest Model

Atmospheric chemistry is central to many environmental issues such as air pollution, climate change, and stratospheric ozone loss. Chemistry Transport Models (CTM) are a central tool for understanding these issues, whether for research or for forecasting. These models split the atmosphere in a large number of grid-boxes and consider the emission of compounds into these boxes and their subsequent transport, deposition, and chemical processing. The chemistry is represented through a series of simultaneous ordinary differential equations, one for each compound. Given the difference in life-times between the chemical compounds (milli-seconds for O1D to years for CH4) these equations are numerically stiff and solving them consists of a significant fraction of the computational burden of a CTM. We have investigated a machine learning approach to solving the differential equations instead of solving them numerically. From an annual simulation of the GEOS-Chem model we have produced a training dataset consisting of the concentration of compounds before and after the differential equations are solved, together with some key physical parameters for every grid-box and time-step. From this dataset we have trained a machine learning algorithm (regression forest) to be able to predict the concentration of the compounds after the integration step based on the concentrations and physical state at the beginning of the time step. We have then included this algorithm back into the GEOS-Chem model, bypassing the need to integrate the chemistry. This machine learning approach shows many of the characteristics of the full simulation and has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of application for such an approach - generating boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts, chemical data assimilation systems, centennial scale climate simulations etc. We discuss our approches' speed and accuracy, and highlight some potential future directions for improving this approach.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Using Machine Learning

Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool to study the impact of chemical constituents on the environment, vegetation and human health. These models split the atmosphere in a large number of grid-boxes and consider the emission of compounds into these boxes and their subsequent transport, deposition, and chemical processing. The chemistry is represented through a series of simultaneous ordinary differential equations, one for each compound. Given the difference in life-times between the chemical compounds (milli-seconds for O1D to years for CH4) these equations are numerically stiff and solving them consists of a significant fraction of the computational burden of a chemistry model. We have investigated a machine learning approach to emulate the chemistry instead of solving the differential equations numerically. From a one-month simulation of the GEOS-Chem model we have produced a training dataset consisting of the concentration of compounds before and after the differential equations are solved, together with some key physical parameters for every grid-box and time-step. From this dataset we have trained a machine learning algorithm (regression forest) to be able to predict the concentration of the compounds after the integration step based on the concentrations and physical state at the beginning of the time step. We have then included this algorithm back into the GEOS-Chem model, bypassing the need to integrate the chemistry. This machine learning approach shows many of the characteristics of the full simulation and has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of application for such an approach - generating boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts, chemical data assimilation systems, etc. We discuss speed and accuracy of our approach, and highlight some potential future directions for improving it.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Machine Learning Application to Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling

Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool to study the impact of chemical constituents on the environment, vegetation and human health. These models split the atmosphere in a large number of grid-boxes and consider the emission of compounds into these boxes and their subsequent transport, deposition, and chemical processing. The chemistry is represented through a series of simultaneous ordinary differential equations, one for each compound. Given the difference in life-times between the chemical compounds (milli-seconds for O (sup 1) D (Deuterium) to years for CH4) these equations are numerically stiff and solving them consists of a significant fraction of the computational burden of a chemistry model. We have investigated a machine learning approach to emulate the chemistry instead of solving the differential equations numerically. From a one-month simulation of the GEOS-Chem model we have produced a training dataset consisting of the concentration of compounds before and after the differential equations are solved, together with some key physical parameters for every grid-box and time-step. From this dataset we have trained a machine learning algorithm (regression forest) to be able to predict the concentration of the compounds after the integration step based on the concentrations and physical state at the beginning of the time step. We have then included this algorithm back into the GEOS-Chem model, bypassing the need to integrate the chemistry. This machine learning approach shows many of the characteristics of the full simulation and has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of application for such an approach - generating boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts, chemical data assimilation systems, etc. We discuss speed and accuracy of our approach, and highlight some potential future directions for improving it.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Understanding fission gas bubble distribution, lanthanide transportation, and thermal conductivity degradation in neutron-irradiated α-U using machine learning

U—10Zr based metallic nuclear fuel is the leading candidate for next-generation sodium-cooled fast reactors in the United States. US research reactors have used and tested this fuel type since the 1960s and accumulated considerable experience and knowledge about the fuel performance. Most of the knowledge, however, remains empirical. The lack of mechanistic understanding of fuel performance puts a large burden on proof through experimental verification for the qualification of U—10Zr fuel for commercial use. Further, this paper proposes an image data-driven machine learning approach, coupled with domain knowledge provided by advanced post irradiation examination, to provide unprecedented quantified insights into the morphology, size, density and the connectivity of fission gas bubbles and their effects on the fission product transportation and thermal conductivity. Specifically, we developed a method to automatically detect, extract statistics, and classify ~19,000 fission gas bubbles into different categories, and quantitatively link the data to lanthanide transportation through connected bubbles and degradation of thermal conductivity along the radial temperature gradient in a neutron irradiated U—10Zr annular fuel. Results indicate the approach can be modified to study other irradiation effects, such as secondary phase redistribution and gaseous fuel swelling in other irradiated nuclear fuels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

MSU IETC LSTM Ethernet Decode (AN EDGE)

This research explores the ability of machine learning to perform signal separation of an Ethernet style encoded, full-duplex communication. Typical signal separation currently requires an active tap of the communication line, followed by a recombination and retransmission of the data. The purpose of this research is to study a passive approach to data acquisition from a full-duplex signal. The machine learning model used in this research is a long-short-term memory recurrent neural network (LSTM-RNN). The results show that the LSTM was largely successful in recreating the transmission signal from the measured data points, though the separated signals have not yet been tested using a decoding method.

Full Duplex Signals↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predicting receptor-ligand pairing preferences in plant-microbe interfaces via molecular dynamics and machine learning

Microbiome assembly, structure, and dynamics significantly influence plant health. Secreted microbial signaling molecules initiate and mediate symbiosis by binding to structurally compatible plant receptors. For example, lipo-chitooligosaccharides (LCOs), produced by nitrogen-fixing rhizobial bacteria and various fungi, are recognized by plant lysin motif receptor-like kinases (LysM-RLKs), which activate the common symbiotic pathway. Accurately predicting these molecular interactions could reveal complementary signatures underlying the initial stages of endosymbiosis. Despite the breakthrough in protein-ligand structure prediction with deep learning-based tools, such as AlphaFold3, the large size and highly flexible nature of signaling compounds like LCOs present major challenges for detailed structural characterization and binding-affinity prediction. Typical structure-/physics-based methods of ligand virtual screening are designed for small, drug-like molecules, often rely on high-resolution, experimentally determined structures of the protein receptors, and rarely achieve sufficient sampling to obtain converged thermodynamic quantities with large ligands. In this study, we developed a hybrid molecular dynamics/machine learning (MD/ML) approach capable of predicting binding affinity rankings with high accuracy in systems involving large, flexible ligands, despite limited experimental structural information. Using coarse initial structural models, the predictions using the MD/ML workflow achieved strong alignment with experimental trends, particularly in the top-affinity tier for four legume LysM-RLKs (LYR3) binding to LCOs and a chitooligosaccharide. Furthermore, the MD-based conformation selection protocol provided critical structural insights into substrate specificity and binding mechanisms. This study demonstrates a powerful method to screen for challenging cognate ligand-receptors and advance our understanding of the molecular basis of microbial colonization in plants.

Lipo-chitooligosaccharides↗

DOE OSTI2025

A structured framework for predicting sustainable aviation fuel properties using liquid-phase FTIR and machine learning

Sustainable aviation fuels have the potential to improve efficiency, reduce emissions, and enhance energy security. To help identify viable sustainable aviation fuels and accelerate research, machine learning models have been developed to predict relevant physicochemical properties. However, many models have limited applicability, leverage data from complex analytical techniques with confined spectral ranges, or use feature decomposition methods that offer limited interpretability. Using liquid-phase Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectra, this study presents a structured method for creating accurate and interpretable property prediction models for neat molecules, aviation fuels, and blends. Liquid FTIR spectra can be collected quickly and consistently, offering high reliability, sensitivity, and component specificity using less than 2 ml of sample. The method first decomposes FTIR spectra into fundamental building blocks using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) to enable scientific analysis of FTIR spectra attributes and fuel properties. The NMF features are then used to create five ensemble models for predicting final boiling point, flash point, freezing point, density at 15°C, and kinematic viscosity at -20°C. All models were trained using experimental property data from neat molecules, aviation fuels, and blends. The models accurately predict key properties across a broad range of neat molecules and representative fuels and blends, while enabling interpretation of relationships between compositional elements, such as functional groups or chemical classes, and their resulting properties. This demonstrates strong potential to support sustainable aviation fuel research and development. The models and data are available on an interactive web tool.

Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2026

Phase instability-coupled fracture behavior in garnet LLZO solid electrolytes: a machine learning-enabled atomistic study

Fracture in the garnet-type solid electrolyte Li 7 La 3 Zr 2 O 12 (LLZO) poses a critical threat to both the performance and safety of solid-state batteries. To unravel the coupled chemomechanical processes that govern fracture in LLZO under external loading, we carry out large-scale molecular-dynamics simulations with a validated machine-learning force field. Our results demonstrate that triaxial stresses at crack flanks trigger a localized cubic-to-tetragonal phase transformation, which is accompanied by Li-ion rearrangement. The emergent tetragonal domains feature lattice contraction normal to the fracture plane, imposing coherent misfit strains that provide an additional driving force for further crack propagation. Crucially, introducing Li deficiencies stabilizes the cubic phase, postponing the phase transition and thereby delaying fracture initiation. These findings highlight the role of intrinsic phase instability in dictating LLZO's fracture resistance and its critical connection to local Li concentration. This chemomechanical coupling points toward targeted strategies to enhance the mechanical robustness of garnet electrolytes, including tuning Li content, ensuring dopant homogeneity, and refining processing protocols.

Materials science↗