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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

Three-dimensional reconstruction of x-ray emission volumes in magnetized liner inertial fusion from sparse projection data using a learned basis

The ability to visualize x-ray and neutron emission from fusion plasmas in 3D is critical to understand the origin of the complex shapes of the plasmas in experiments. Unfortunately, this remains challenging in experiments that study a fusion concept known as Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) due to a small number of available diagnostic views. Here, we present a basis function-expansion approach to reconstruct MagLIF stagnation plasmas from a sparse set of x-ray emission images. A set of natural basis functions is “learned” from training volumes containing quasi-helical structures whose projections are qualitatively similar to those observed in experimental images. Tests on several known volumes demonstrate that the learned basis outperforms both a cylindrical harmonic basis and a simple voxel basis with additional regularization, according to several metrics. Two-view reconstructions with the learned basis can estimate emission volumes to within 11% and those with three views recover morphology to a high degree of accuracy. The technique is applied to experimental data, producing the first 3D reconstruction of a MagLIF stagnation column from multiple views, providing additional indications of liner instabilities imprinting onto the emitting plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Optical distributed sensors for feedback control: Characterization of photorefractive resonator

The aim of the project was to explore, define, and assess the possibilities of optical distributed sensing for feedback control. This type of sensor, which may have some impacts in the dynamic control of deformable structures and the monitoring of small displacements, can be divided into data acquisition, data processing, and control design. Analogue optical techniques, because they are noninvasive and afford massive parallelism may play a significant role in the acquisition and the preprocessing of the data for such a sensor. Assessing these possibilities was the aim of the first stage of this project. The scope of the proposed research was limited to: (1) the characterization of photorefractive resonators and the assessment of their possible use as a distributed optical processing element; and (2) the design of a control system utilizing signals from distributed sensors. The results include a numerical and experimental study of the resonator below threshold, an experimental study of the effect of the resonator's transverse confinement on its dynamics above threshold, a numerical study of the resonator above threshold using a modal expansion approach, and the experimental test of this model. A detailed account of each investigation, including methodology and analysis of the results are also included along with reprints of published and submitted papers.

Indebetouw, Guy↗

Detection of Extrasolar Planets by Transit Photometry

A knowledge of other planetary systems that includes information on the number, size, mass, and spacing of the planets around a variety of star types is needed to deepen our understanding of planetary system formation and processes that give rise to their final configurations. Recent discoveries show that many planetary systems are quite different from the solar system in that they often possess giant planets in short period orbits. The inferred evolution of these planets and their orbital characteristics imply the absence of Earth-like planets near the habitable zone. Information on the properties of the giant-inner planets is now being obtained by both the Doppler velocity and the transit photometry techniques. The combination of the two techniques provides the mass, size, and density of the planets. For the planet orbiting star HD209458, transit photometry provided the first independent confirmation and measurement of the diameter of an extrasolar planet. The observations indicate a planet 1.27 the diameter of Jupiter with 0.63 of its mass (Charbonneau et al. 1999). The results are in excellent agreement with the theory of planetary atmospheres for a planet of the indicated mass and distance from a solar-like star. The observation of the November 23, 1999 transit of that planet made by the Ames Vulcan photometer at Lick Observatory is presented. In the future, the combination of the two techniques will greatly increase the number of discoveries and the richness of the science yield. Small rocky planets at orbital distances from 0.9 to 1.2 AU are more likely to harbor life than the gas giant planets that are now being discovered. However, new technology is needed to find smaller, Earth-like planets, which are about three hundred times less massive than Jupiter-like planets. The Kepler project is a space craft mission designed to discover hundreds of Earth-size planets in and near the habitable zone around a wide variety of stars. To demonstrate that the technology exists to find such small planets, our group has conducted an end-to-end system test. The results of the laboratory tests are presented and show that we are ready to start the search for Earth-size planets.

Borucki, William↗

HED Hydrodynamics in the Common Modeling Framework

Within the Common Modeling Framework (CMF), the HED Hydrodynamics Project has implemented a common methodology, or "Authority", for modeling high energy density (HED) experiments by extending development of the Eulerian Applications Project code Authority, "EAPA," to include relevant physics models, customization tools and templates, and in situ and post-processing capabilities. Additionally, several models for small-scale HED experiments were successfully added to the CMF and simulations reproduce the results of preexisting, benchmarked input decks. We expect use of the CMF to improve our effectiveness in developing predictive capabilities for experiments ranging from small-scale planar single-interface, single-shock to multi-interface, multi-shock configurations and up through multi-shell inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions. Additionally, this will strengthen our ability to design future targeted experiments. Using the CMF infrastructure and Authorities for HED modeling has three key impacts. First, it enables a version-controlled, pedigreed and archived base model for each experiment with tools that allow easy setup, execution and analysis of simulations to assess and/or expose sensitivities to various parameters. Second, having a common base set of inputs and physics definitions helps identify systematic differences between models in the codes and experimental data to support code validation, and build confidence in our predictive capabilities. Finally, designed to work in concert with multiple programs and projects including PEM, IC, OES, V&V and DSW, the CMF supports improved collaboration and integration through shared model definitions, data, simulations and results, enhancing the workflow required to underwrite the knowledge base and capabilities ultimately required for stockpile stewardship

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Microbial Monitoring from the Frontlines to Space: A Successful Validation of a Department of Defense (DoD) Funded Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Technology on Board the International Space Station (ISS)

The RAZOR EX (Registered Trademark) PCR unit was initially developed by the DoD as part of an SBIR project to detect and identify biothreats during field deployment. The system was evaluated by NASA as a commercial technology for future microbial monitoring requirements and has been successfully demonstrated in microgravity on-board the International Space Station.

Oubre, Cherie↗

RAFT: Reconfigurable Array of High-Efficiency Ducted Turbines for Hydrokinetic Energy Harvesting

Diversifying the energy harvesting portfolio is crucial to achieving the ambitious goal of transitioning to clean energy by 2030. Marine hydrokinetic energy has garnered renewed interest due to its high harvesting potential in the U.S., and the resource's reliability and predictability—remaining relatively constant on a daily basis and available 24/7. However, there are currently few commercial devices capable of harnessing the energy from flowing water. This project aims to bridge that gap by designing and evaluating a novel hydrokinetic turbine concept that can efficiently harvest energy from both rivers and tidal streams. The RAFT (Reconfigurable Array of High-Efficiency Ducted Turbines) concept introduces a duct surrounding the turbine rotor and creates an array of small 5-kW units. The duct serves two primary purposes: (1) it enhances hydrodynamic efficiency by accelerating flow to the rotor, and (2) it functions as a structural component, facilitating the formation of modular arrays that lower costs. This project focuses on demonstrating this concept and validating these benefits through simulations and scaled prototype testing. The project team includes 8 faculty members and over 20 students from 3 universities, organized into three core areas: hydrodynamics, electrical systems, and structural analysis, with additional teams dedicated to system integration, environmental assessment and risk management, and tech-to-market strategy. The team successfully demonstrated the increased hydrodynamic efficiency of a ducted turbine compared to an unducted version using high-fidelity simulations and prototype tests. Moreover, design optimization efforts led to surpassing the SHARKS program's goal of 60% reduction of the levelized cost of energy with a significant margin.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Precision measurements on oxygen formation in stellar helium burning with gamma-ray beams and a Time Projection Chamber

The carbon/oxygen (C/O) ratio at the end of stellar helium burning is the single most important nuclear input to stellar evolution theory. However, it is not known with sufficient accuracy, due to large uncertainties in the cross-section for the fusion of helium with 12 C to form 16 O, denoted as 12 C( α , γ ) 16 O. Here we present results based on a method that is significantly different from the experimental efforts of the past four decades. With data measured inside one detector and with vanishingly small background, angular distributions of the 12 C( α , γ ) 16 O reaction were obtained by measuring the inverse 16 O( γ , α ) 12 C reaction with gamma-beams and a Time Projection Chamber (TPC) detector. We agree with current world data for the total reaction cross-section and further evidence the strength of our method with accurate angular distributions measured over the 1 - resonance at E cm ~2.4 MeV. Our technique promises to yield results that will surpass the quality of the currently available data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Development and Full Load Demonstration of a 900°C Solid Particle Receiver for Concentrating Solar Power Applications - noLimits

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) are world leaders in the joint and separate development of very high temperature next generation solar concentrator systems using solid particles. This project “noLimits” is meant to provide the critical performance information needed to commercialize DLR’s CentRec® solar receiver and ancillary particle systems (conveying systems, storage vessels, flow control equipment etc.) developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Performance information (at power levels closer to a small scale Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plant) will be obtained at full load conditions (2.5 MWt ) and at 900 °C-1000 °C particle outlet temperatures at the National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF) located at SNL. Heliogen was proposed to be joining the project as a commercial partner to provide the commercialization route for this receiver design, if successful, as Heliogen acquired the intellectual property (IP) from DLR.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Illinois Basin Regional DAC Hub TA-1: Feasibility (Phase-0) (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The overall objective of this project was to complete a feasibility study for a Regional Direct Air Capture (DAC) Hub that encompasses Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky. The geographic construct of this hub was based on the Illinois Basin – a geological area where at least seven (7) geological storage studies were conducted. The Hub was designed to assure a capacity to capture, store, and utilize at least 1,000,000 metric tons (tonnes) of CO2 from the atmosphere annually 1 metric tonnes per annum (MTA), starting from an initial capacity of 200,000 tonnes of CO2 per annum (KTA). The Hub also included:(1) clean energy providers to supply renewable energy to the DAC units; (2) geological storage facilities to inject and sequestrate the captured CO2; (3) CO2 utilization facilities that would uptake the captured CO2 and convert it into products; and (4) small business organizations that would assist in workforce development efforts for the region. This closeout report consolidates the tasks undertaken and accomplished as deliverables for the project. The project team had successfully completed all required tasks of phase 0a, confirming that the project is feasible based on the preliminary conceptual designs and operational requirements of the DAC systems. Of particular interest, the hub ownership structure was identified and was implemented in follow on projects that would transition the hub infrastructure to a build/operate phase.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

U.S. Department of Energy Competitiveness Improvement Project (CIP) 2024 Technology Commercialization Awardee: Siva Powers America Inc.

This fact sheet describes the 2024 Competitiveness Improvement Project (CIP) award received by Siva Powers America Inc. for a Technology Commercialization Award. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) CIP awards cost-shared subcontracts and technical support to manufacturers of small and medium-sized wind turbines. Managed by NREL on behalf of DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office, CIP helps advance wind energy as a cost-effective, distributed generation technology option.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Combustion Performance and Emissions Optimization through Integration of Miniaturized High Temperature Multi Process Monitoring System

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. The new sensor design, leveraging the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system, is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data can be transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, five mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s Leland Olds Unit 1. The systems were demonstrated over a 6-week period during typical operation. Sensor measurements of deposit thickness were validated during the demonstration and subsequently leveraged to determine sensor-based boiler cleaning strategies. These strategies have the benefit of reduced thermal stresses on boiler tubes from over-cleaning and improved boiler water management. At the end of the project, continued development of the sensor technology was carried out at PacifiCorp’s Hunter Station. REI leveraged the permanent installation of the mMPMS in Unit 3 made possible by DOE funding on a separate program. The work at Hunter Plant focused on application of machine learning and artificial intelligence-based models for integration of sensor signals into control and optimization of Hunter Unit 3 processes.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗

Combustion Performance and Emissions Optimization Through Integration of a Miniaturized High-Temperature Multi Process Monitoring System

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. The new sensor design, leveraging the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system, is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data can be transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, five mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s Leland Olds Unit 1. The systems were demonstrated over a 6-week period during typical operation. Sensor measurements of deposit thickness were validated during the demonstration and subsequently leveraged to determine sensor-based boiler cleaning strategies. These strategies have the benefit of reduced thermal stresses on boiler tubes from over-cleaning and improved boiler water management. At the end of the project, continued development of the sensor technology was carried out at PacifiCorp’s Hunter Station. REI leveraged the permanent installation of the mMPMS in Unit 3 made possible by DOE funding on a separate program. The work at Hunter Plant focused on application of machine learning and artificial intelligence-based models for integration of sensor signals into control and optimization of Hunter Unit 3 processes.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗

Combustion Performance and Emissions Optimization Through Integration of a Miniaturized High-Temperature Multi Process Monitoring System

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution of wall conditions in utility boilers. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of a coal-fired utility boiler in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. The new sensor design, leveraging the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system, is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data can be transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, five mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s Leland Olds Unit 1. The systems were demonstrated over a 6-week period during typical operation. Sensor measurements of deposit thickness were validated during the demonstration and subsequently leveraged to determine sensor-based boiler cleaning strategies. These strategies have the benefit of reduced thermal stresses on boiler tubes from over-cleaning and improved boiler water management. At the end of the project, continued development of the sensor technology was carried out at PacifiCorp’s Hunter Station. REI leveraged the permanent installation of the mMPMS in Unit 3 made possible by DOE funding on a separate program. The work at Hunter Plant focused on application of machine learning and artificial intelligence-based models for integration of sensor signals into control and optimization of Hunter Unit 3 processes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High-Temperature Multi-Process Sensor Development and Demonstration at a Full-scale PC Combustion System

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution of wall conditions in utility boilers. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of a coal-fired utility boiler in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. The new sensor design, leveraging the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system, is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data can be transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, five mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s Leland Olds Unit 1. The systems were demonstrated over a 6-week period during typical operation. Sensor measurements of deposit thickness were validated during the demonstration and subsequently leveraged to determine sensor-based boiler cleaning strategies. These strategies have the benefit of reduced thermal stresses on boiler tubes from over-cleaning and improved boiler water management. At the end of the project, continued development of the sensor technology was carried out at PacifiCorp’s Hunter Station. REI leveraged the permanent installation of the mMPMS in Unit 3 made possible by DOE funding on a separate program. The work at Hunter Plant focused on application of machine learning and artificial intelligence-based models for integration of sensor signals into control and optimization of Hunter Unit 3 processes.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗

Scalable Manufacturing of Efficient Perovskite/Silicon Tandem Modules

Crystalline-Si (c-Si) technology produces excellent solar cells with conversion efficiencies of up to 26.7%—nearly their practical limit of 27%—and has been commercialized extensively to produce panels below $\$0.40$/W. Techno-economic analysis shows that module efficiency will continue to be a primary cost driver because of high balance-ofsystems costs, and there is no path to higher efficiencies with single-junction silicon cells. In this project, three research teams from University of North Carolina, Arizona State University and National Renewable National Laboratory worked together to develop perovskite-silicon tandem cells with a high throughput process which can handle 5000 wafers per hour, enabled by very low added CAPEX of ~$20k for a doctor-blade coater. This can potentially increase the module efficiency to 30% (with grid) with small increase of cost, which will drive down the cost of silicon modules to be at least 16% cheaper than present silicon PERC modules. We also explored the alternative narrow bandgap perovskites as silicon replacement for all perovskite tandem cells. This project has substantially advanced the progress of solution-process perovskitessilicon tandem solar cells and perovskite-perovskite tandem solar cells with many inventions and discoveries, evidenced by 18 publications and 6 invention disclosures. Several notable examples include 1) we developed the new idea of small pyramid in combination with solution grown perovskites and demonstrated record-efficiency of 28.5% for 1 cm2 on textured silicon bottom cells and 25.2% for 24 cm2 on chemically etched silicon bottom cells for perovskite-silicon tandem cells. 2) We developed perovskite ink that can coat perovskites onto texture silicon without voids;, and new device structure to enhance the yield of fabrication by reducing shunting 3) We identified the origin of open circuit voltage on mixed halide wide bandgap perovskites, and came with a solution for this problem, reducing the voltage loss to a record small value, which can potentially push the perovskite-silicon tandem cell efficiency to over 31%; 4) We have developed efficient alternative low bandgap semiconductors, i.e. gradient-doped Sn based perovskites by Ba ions, new oxide hole transport layers which increase the efficiency of perovskite/perovskite tandem cells reached record efficiency of 26.3%; 5) We developed bifacial perovskite/perovskite tandem cells by overcoming contacts issues and regaining light absorption, further boosting the equivalent efficiency to 29.3% under 1 sun illumination with 30% albedo light; 6) We developed the first all perovskite tandem module fabricated in air by discovery a combination of oxidization and reduction couples, yield an aperture efficiency of 21.6% for all perovskite mininodules, exceeding that of single junction perovskite minimodules. These discoveries not only accelerate the commercialization of perovskite-silicon tandem solar cells, but also provide guidance in designing other type of perovskite solar cell technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Robust Implicit Adaptive Low Rank Time-Stepping Methods for Matrix Differential Equations

In this work, we develop implicit rank-adaptive schemes for time-dependent matrix differential equations. The dynamic low rank approximation (DLRA) is a well-known technique to capture the dynamic low rank structure based on Dirac–Frenkel time-dependent variational principle. In recent years, it has attracted a lot of attention due to its wide applicability. Our schemes are inspired by the three-step procedure used in the rank adaptive version of the unconventional robust integrator (the so called BUG integrator) (Ceruti et al. in BIT Numer Math 62(4):1149–1174, 2022) for DLRA. First, a prediction (basis update) step is made computing the approximate column and row spaces at the next time level. Second, a Galerkin evolution step is invoked using an implicit solves for the small core matrix. Finally, a truncation is made according to a prescribed error threshold. Since the DLRA is evolving the differential equation projected on to the tangent space of the low rank manifold, the error estimate of the BUG integrator contains the tangent projection (modeling) error which cannot be easily controlled by mesh refinement. This can cause convergence issue for equations with cross terms. To address this issue, we propose a simple modification, consisting of merging the row and column spaces from the explicit step truncation method together with the BUG spaces in the prediction step. In addition, we propose an adaptive strategy where the BUG spaces are only computed if the residual for the solution obtained from the prediction space by explicit step truncation method, is too large. Here, we prove stability and estimate the local truncation error of the schemes under assumptions. We benchmark the schemes in several tests, such as anisotropic diffusion, solid body rotation and the combination of the two, to show robust convergence properties.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cost function for low-dimensional manifold topology assessment

Abstract In reduced-order modeling, complex systems that exhibit high state-space dimensionality are described and evolved using a small number of parameters. These parameters can be obtained in a data-driven way, where a high-dimensional dataset is projected onto a lower-dimensional basis. A complex system is then restricted to states on a low-dimensional manifold where it can be efficiently modeled. While this approach brings computational benefits, obtaining a good quality of the manifold topology becomes a crucial aspect when models, such as nonlinear regression, are built on top of the manifold. Here, we present a quantitative metric for characterizing manifold topologies. Our metric pays attention to non-uniqueness and spatial gradients in physical quantities of interest, and can be applied to manifolds of arbitrary dimensionality. Using the metric as a cost function in optimization algorithms, we show that optimized low-dimensional projections can be found. We delineate a few applications of the cost function to datasets representing argon plasma, reacting flows and atmospheric pollutant dispersion. We demonstrate how the cost function can assess various dimensionality reduction and manifold learning techniques as well as data preprocessing strategies in their capacity to yield quality low-dimensional projections. We show that improved manifold topologies can facilitate building nonlinear regression models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Permafrost thermal conditions are sensitive to shifts in snow timing

Abstract Changes in snow precipitation at high latitudes can significantly affect permafrost thermal conditions and thaw depth, potentially exposing more carbon-laden soil to microbial decomposition. A fully coupled process-based surface/subsurface thermal hydrology model with surface energy balance is used to analyze the impact of intra-annual variability in snow on permafrost thermal regime and the active layer thickness. In the four numerical scenarios considered, simulations were forced by the same meteorological data, except the snow precipitation, which was systematically altered to change timing of snowfall. The scenarios represent subtle shifts in snow timing, but the snow onset/melt days, the end of winter snowpack depth, and total annual snow precipitation are unchanged among scenarios. The simulations show that small shifts in the timing of snow accumulation can have significant effects on subsurface thermal conditions leading to active layer deepening and even talik formation when snowfall arrives earlier in the winter. The shifts in snow timing have a stronger impact on wetter regions, especially soil underneath small ponds, as compared to drained regions. This study highlights the importance of understanding potential changes in winter precipitation patterns for reliable projections of active-layer thickness in a changing Arctic climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗