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NASA NTRS2020

Exploring the Limits of the Data-Model-Theory Synergy: “Hot” MW Transitions for Rovibrational IR Studies

In order to further improve the accuracy of rovibrational IR line lists generated from the “Best Theory +Reliable High-resolution Experiment” (BTRHE) strategy from 0.01-0.05 cm-1, or 300-1500 MHz, to ~10 MHz, we explore the current limits of the Data-Model-Theory synergy by examining the accuracy and consistency of existing data, then propose that “hot” bands in microwave (MW) spectra is the solution we need for future enhancements. The Ames SO2 J=0-20 rovibrational energy levels computed on the semi-empirically refined Ames-2 potential energy surface (PES) are fit to the Effective Hamiltonian (EH) model regularly used in the experimental infrared (IR) analysis for SO2 isotopologues. In the fitted EH(Ames) model, the rotational constants A/B/C and all 5 quartic centrifugal distortion constants display clear, systematic, and consistent patterns along the vibrational state energy or quanta. Such consistent patterns may facilitate the vibrational assignments for MW hot bands and extract more information from high temperature MW spectra. Some EH(Expt) analyses were carried out with the lowest order Coriolis Coupling term, C1. Their constants should not be directly compared with other EH(Expt) and EH(Ames) results. After excluding them, our  = EH(Ames)- EH(Expt) analyses for 5 isotopologues (626, 636, 646, 628 and 828) indicates some loss of accuracy and consistency starting from vibrational states as low as 22 or 1000 cm-1. Some EH parameters, e.g. K, may have relative deviations as large as 50-100% and totally lose any recognizable patterns. This simply means that current EH(Expt) models do not have the system-wide consistency we need to further refine the EH(Ames) and Ames rovibrational IR line lists. A large part of such defects are probably inherited from the limited precision of experimental line positions, i.e. 1E-3 ~ 1E-4 cm-1, or 3-30 MHz. This is confirmed in a series of truncation tests using the Ames data. Although the EH(Ames) consistency may help identify unreliable rovibrational EH(Expt) parameters, and make reliable predictions for minor isotopologues and unobserved vibrational bands, we believe only the highly accurate “hot” MW transitions can provide real enhancements for EH(Expt) accuracy and consistency. “Hot” MW spectra should play a more significant role in the future synergy of Data, Model, and Theory in the field of rovibrational IR studies.

Xinchuan Huang↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive compartmental model and calibration algorithm for the study of clinical implications of the population-level spread of COVID-19: a study protocol

The complex dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has made obtaining reliable long-term forecasts of the disease progression difficult. Simple mechanistic models with deterministic parameters are useful for short-term predictions but have ultimately been unsuccessful in extrapolating the trajectory of the pandemic because of unmodelled dynamics and the unrealistic level of certainty that is assumed in the predictions. We propose a 22-compartment epidemiological model that includes compartments not previously considered concurrently, to account for the effects of vaccination, asymptomatic individuals, inadequate access to hospital care, post-acute COVID-19 and recovery with long-term health complications. Additionally, new connections between compartments introduce new dynamics to the system and provide a framework to study the sensitivity of model outputs to several concurrent effects, including temporary immunity, vaccination rate and vaccine effectiveness. Subject to data availability for a given region, we discuss a means by which population demographics (age, comorbidity, socioeconomic status, sex and geographical location) and clinically relevant information (different variants, different vaccines) can be incorporated within the 22-compartment framework. Considering a probabilistic interpretation of the parameters allows the model's predictions to reflect the current state of uncertainty about the model parameters and model states. We propose the use of a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for parameter calibration and model selection. This methodology considers a combination of prescribed parameter prior distributions for parameters that are known to be essential to the modelled dynamics and automatic relevance determination priors for parameters whose relevance is questionable. This is useful as it helps prevent overfitting the available epidemiological data when calibrating the parameters of the proposed model. Population-level administrative health data will serve as partial observations of the model states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Solar-to-Grid: Trends in System Impacts, Reliability, and Market Value in the United States with Data Through 2019

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Solar-to-Grid: Trends in System Impacts, Reliability, and Market Value in the United States with Data Through 2020

With continued deployment of solar across the United States, assessing the interactions of solar with the power system is an increasingly important complement to studies tracking the cost and performance of solar plants. This project focuses on the historical contribution to reliability, trends in market value, and impacts on the bulk power system of solar deployed in the U.S. through the end of 2020. The scope of this analysis includes the seven organized U.S. wholesale power markets and is based on historical hourly solar generation profiles for each individual plant larger than 1 MW or county-level aggregate profiles for smaller solar. In addition, we present a limited set of results for ten utilities that are outside of the independent system operator (ISO)/regional transmission organization (RTO) markets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2014

ECLSS Reliability for Long Duration Missions Beyond Lower Earth Orbit

Reliability has been highlighted by NASA as critical to future human space exploration particularly in the area of environmental controls and life support systems. The Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) projects have been encouraged to pursue higher reliability components and systems as part of technology development plans. However there is no consensus on what is meant by improving on reliability; nor on how to assess reliability within the AES projects. This became apparent when trying to assess reliability as one of several figures of merit for a regenerable water architecture trade study. In the spring of 2013, the AES Water Recovery Project (WRP) hosted a series of events at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) with the intended goal of establishing a common language and understanding of our reliability goals, and equipping the projects with acceptable means of assessing our respective systems. This campaign included an educational series in which experts from across the agency and academia provided information on terminology, tools and techniques associated with evalauating and designing for system reliability. The campaign culminated in a workshop at JSC with members of the ECLSS and AES communities with the goal of developing a consensus on what reliability means to AES and identifying methods for assessing our low to mid-technology readiness level (TRL) technologies for reliability. This paper details the results of the workshop.

Sargusingh, Miriam J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

ECLSS Reliability for Long Duration Missions Beyond Lower Earth Orbit

Reliability has been highlighted by NASA as critical to future human space exploration particularly in the area of environmental controls and life support systems. The Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) projects have been encouraged to pursue higher reliability components and systems as part of technology development plans. However, there is no consensus on what is meant by improving on reliability; nor on how to assess reliability within the AES projects. This became apparent when trying to assess reliability as one of several figures of merit for a regenerable water architecture trade study. In the Spring of 2013, the AES Water Recovery Project (WRP) hosted a series of events at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) with the intended goal of establishing a common language and understanding of our reliability goals and equipping the projects with acceptable means of assessing our respective systems. This campaign included an educational series in which experts from across the agency and academia provided information on terminology, tools and techniques associated with evaluating and designing for system reliability. The campaign culminated in a workshop at JSC with members of the ECLSS and AES communities with the goal of developing a consensus on what reliability means to AES and identifying methods for assessing our low to mid-technology readiness level (TRL) technologies for reliability. This paper details the results of the workshop.

Sargusingh, Miriam J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Advanced transportation system study: Manned launch vehicle concepts for two way transportation system payloads to LEO

The purpose of the Advanced Transportation System Study (ATSS) task area 1 study effort is to examine manned launch vehicle booster concepts and two-way cargo transfer and return vehicle concepts to determine which of the many proposed concepts best meets NASA's needs for two-way transportation to low earth orbit. The study identified specific configurations of the normally unmanned, expendable launch vehicles (such as the National Launch System family) necessary to fly manned payloads. These launch vehicle configurations were then analyzed to determine the integrated booster/spacecraft performance, operations, reliability, and cost characteristics for the payload delivery and return mission. Design impacts to the expendable launch vehicles which would be required to perform the manned payload delivery mission were also identified. These impacts included the implications of applying NASA's man-rating requirements, as well as any mission or payload unique impacts. The booster concepts evaluated included the National Launch System (NLS) family of expendable vehicles and several variations of the NLS reference configurations to deliver larger manned payload concepts (such as the crew logistics vehicle (CLV) proposed by NASA JSC). Advanced, clean sheet concepts such as an F-1A engine derived liquid rocket booster (LRB), the single stage to orbit rocket, and a NASP-derived aerospace plane were also included in the study effort. Existing expendable launch vehicles such as the Titan 4, Ariane 5, Energia, and Proton were also examined. Although several manned payload concepts were considered in the analyses, the reference manned payload was the NASA Langley Research Center's HL-20 version of the personnel launch system (PLS). A scaled up version of the PLS for combined crew/cargo delivery capability, the HL-42 configuration, was also included in the analyses of cargo transfer and return vehicle (CTRV) booster concepts. In addition to strictly manned payloads, two-way cargo transportation systems (CTRV's) were also examined. The study provided detailed design and analysis of the performance, reliability, and operations of these concepts. The study analyzed these concepts as unique systems and also analyzed several combined CTRV/booster configurations as integrated launch systems (such as for launch abort analyses). Included in the set of CTRV concepts analyzed were the medium CTRV, the integral CTRV (in both a pressurized and unpressurized configuration), the winged CTRV, and an attached cargo carrier for the PLS system known as the PLS caboose.

Duffy, James B.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Look-Ahead Commitment: A Case Study in MISO

This paper introduces the Stochastic Look Ahead Commitment (SLAC) software prototyped and tested for the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) look ahead commitment process. SLAC can incorporate hundreds of wind, load, and net scheduled interchange (NSI) uncertainty scenarios. It uses a progressive hedging method to solve a novel two-stage stochastic unit commitment. The first stage commitment decisions, made only for those generators whose decision to commit or not in each time period cannot be deferred, can cover the uncertainties within the next three hours. The second stage includes both the dispatch for each of the scenarios and the commitment decisions that can be deferred. Study results on 15 MISO production days show that SLAC may bring economic and reliability benefits under uncertainty.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data efficiency assessment of generative adversarial networks in energy applications

This study investigates the data requirements of generative artificial intelligence (AI), particularly generative adversarial networks (GANs), for reliable data augmentation in energy applications. Generative AI, though seen as a solution to data limitations, requires substantial data to learn meaningful distributions—a challenge often overlooked. This study addresses the challenge through synthetic data generation for critical heat flux (CHF) and power grid demand, focusing on renewable and nuclear energy. Two variants of GAN employed are conditional GAN (cGAN) and Wasserstein GAN (wGAN). Our findings include the strong dependency of GAN on data size, with performance declining on smaller datasets and varying performance when generalizing to unseen experiments. Mass flux and heated length significantly influence CHF predictions. wGAN is more robust to feature exclusion, making it suitable for constrained synthetic data generation. In energy demand forecasting, wGAN performed well for solar, wind, and load predictions. Longer lookback hours and larger datasets improved predictions, especially for load power. Seasonal variations posed challenges, with wGAN achieving a relatively high error of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.32 for load power prediction, compared to RMSE of 0.07 under same-season conditions. Feature exclusions impacted cGAN the most, while wGAN showed greater robustness. This study concludes that, while generative AI is effective for data augmentation, it requires substantial data and careful training to generate realistic synthetic data and generalize to new experiments in engineering applications.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Crash Risks Evaluation of Urban Expressways: A Case Study in Shanghai

We report that proactive traffic safety management systems can reduce crashes by identifying crash precursors, evaluating real-time crash risks, and implementing suitable interventions. The basic prerequisite for developing such a system is to propose a reliable crash risk evaluation model that takes real-time traffic flow data as input. Previous studies have primarily focused on real-time crash prediction using some statistical or machine-learning methods. However, further quantitative evaluation and classification of crash risks have been ignored. In this study, we conduct a systematic crash risk evaluation workflow, including crash risk prediction, crash risk quantification, and crash risk classification. Specifically, the crash risk prediction using an extended logit model is proposed, from which CAS, CSD, UAS, DAS, DTV are identified to be contributing factors of crash risks. Then a crash risk quantification model based on the parameter evaluation of the extended logit model is developed. The crash risks of urban expressways and their spatial-temporal evolution trends are quantified. Finally, the crash risks are classified into high crash risk level, moderate crash risk level, and low crash risk level by the k-means cluster algorithm. Then the threshold boundaries of different crash risk levels are determined. The research results provide a proactive guidance for traffic safety management of urban expressways.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS1994

System concept definition of the Grumman superconducting Electromagnetic Suspension (EMS) Maglev design

Grumman, under contract to the Army Corps of Engineers, completed a System Concept Definition (SCD) study to design a high-speed 134 m/s (300 m.p.h.) magnetically levitated (Maglev) transportation system. The primary development goals were to design a Maglev that is safe, reliable, environmentally acceptable, and low-cost. The cost issue was a predominant one, since previous studies have shown that an economically viable Maglev system (one that is attractive to investors for future models of passenger and/or freight transportation) requires a cost that is about $12.4 M/km ($20 Million per mile). The design is based on the electromagnetic suspension (EMS) system using superconducting iron-core magnets mounted along both sides of the vehicle. The EMS system has several advantages compared to the electrodynamic suspension (EDS) Maglev systems such as low stray magnetic fields in the passenger cabin and the surrounding areas, uniform load distribution along the full length of the vehicle, and small pole pitch for smoother propulsion and ride comfort. It is also levitated at all speeds and incorporates a wrap-around design of safer operation. The Grumman design has all the advantages of an EMS system identified above, while eliminating (or significantly improving) drawbacks associated with normal magnet powered EMS systems. Improvements include larger gap clearance, lighter weight, lower number of control servos, and higher off line switching speeds. The design also incorporates vehicle tilt (plus or minus 9 deg) for higher coordinated turn and turn out speed capability.

Proise, M.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Reliability Assessment of Graphite Specimens under Multiaxial Stresses

An investigation was conducted to predict the failure strength response of IG-100 nuclear grade graphite exposed to multiaxial stresses. As part of this effort, a review of failure criteria accounting for the stochastic strength response is provided. The experimental work was performed in the early 1990s at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) on hollow graphite tubes under the action of axial tensile loading and internal pressurization. As part of the investigation, finite-element analysis (FEA) was performed and compared with results of FEA from the original ORNL report. The new analysis generally compared well with the original analysis, although some discrepancies in the location of peak stresses was noted. The Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life prediction code (CARES/Life) was used with the FEA results to predict the quadrants I (tensile-tensile) and quadrant IV (compression-tension) strength response of the graphite tubes for the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging (NSA), and the Batdorf multiaxial failure theories. The CARES/Life reliability analysis showed that all three failure theories gave similar results in quadrant I but that in quadrant IV, the PIA and Weibull normal stress-averaging theories were not conservative, whereas the Batdorf theory was able to correlate well with experimental results. The conclusion of the study was that the Batdorf theory should generally be used to predict the reliability response of graphite and brittle materials in multiaxial loading situations.

Sookdeo, Steven↗

DOE OSTI2021

Studying Corrosion Using Miniaturized Particle Attached Working Electrodes and the Nafion Membrane

We developed a new approach to attach particles onto a conductive layer as a working electrode (WE) in a microfluidic electrochemical cell with three electrodes. Nafion, an efficient proton transfer molecule, is used to form a thin protection layer to secure particle electrodes. Spin coating is used to develop a thin and even layer of Nafion membrane. The effects of Nafion (5 wt% 20 wt%) and spinning rates were evaluated using multiple sets of replicates. The electrochemical performance of various devices was demonstrated. Additionally, the electrochemical performance of the devices is used to select and optimize fabrication conditions. The results show that a higher spinning rate and a lower Nafion concentration (5 wt%) induce a better performance, using cerium oxide (CeO2) particles as a testing model. The WE surfaces were characterized using atomic force microscopy (AFM), scanning electron microscopy-focused ion beam (SEM-FIB), time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS), and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The comparison between the pristine and corroded WE surfaces shows that Nafion is redistributed after potential is applied. Our results verify that Nafion membrane offers a reliable means to secure particles onto electrodes. Furthermore, the electrochemical performance is reliable and reproducible. Thus, this approach provides a new way to study more complex and challenging particles, such as uranium oxide, in the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Methodology to Evaluate the Grid Reliability Impact of Oscillations Induced by Large Loads

The rapid growth of hyperscale AI data centers is bringing renewed attention to the reliability risk that sustained forced oscillations pose to bulk power systems, with cyclic computational workloads emerging as a new forcing source. Unlike the broadband, stochastic disturbances from traditional industrial loads such as arc furnaces, AI training and inference facilities can inject large active power swings concentrated at specific frequencies over extended durations - characteristics that existing grid planning practices do not account for. While the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has recognized this gap and called for system-level studies of large load interconnections, no standardized methodology exists to screen, simulate, and quantify these risks at the planning stage. This report presents the Risk Assessment Tool for Large Load-induced Events (RATLLE), a Python-based, publicly available script suite developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate bulk power system reliability risks from data center-induced oscillations. RATLLE implements a three-module workflow: a screening module that identifies vulnerable interconnection locations and excitable system modes; a simulation module that models cyclic data center load behavior using a commercial positive sequence simulation platform; and an analysis module that computes risk metrics and generates interactive visualization dashboards. The risk metrics, formulated around simulation observables, map oscillation impacts to a three-stage severity scale spanning latent equipment fatigue through imminent cascading failure. The methodology is demonstrated on two Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system models: a publicly available 240-bus reduced representation and a detailed 2031 Heavy Winter planning case. Case studies illustrate that even modest 50 MW forced oscillations at resonant frequencies can produce wide-area power swings, N-1 security constraint violations, and cascading generator trips through protection actions - outcomes that would not occur under normal operating conditions without oscillations present. The results underscore the need for standardized oscillation impact assessment in large load interconnection studies and provide a reproducible, extensible framework for utilities to adopt or customize within their existing planning workflows.

Biswas, Shuchismita↗

NASA NTRS2010

Excavator Design Validation

The Excavator Design Validation tool verifies excavator designs by automatically generating control systems and modeling their performance in an accurate simulation of their expected environment. Part of this software design includes interfacing with human operations that can be included in simulation-based studies and validation. This is essential for assessing productivity, versatility, and reliability. This software combines automatic control system generation from CAD (computer-aided design) models, rapid validation of complex mechanism designs, and detailed models of the environment including soil, dust, temperature, remote supervision, and communication latency to create a system of high value. Unique algorithms have been created for controlling and simulating complex robotic mechanisms automatically from just a CAD description. These algorithms are implemented as a commercial cross-platform C++ software toolkit that is configurable using the Extensible Markup Language (XML). The algorithms work with virtually any mobile robotic mechanisms using module descriptions that adhere to the XML standard. In addition, high-fidelity, real-time physics-based simulation algorithms have also been developed that include models of internal forces and the forces produced when a mechanism interacts with the outside world. This capability is combined with an innovative organization for simulation algorithms, new regolith simulation methods, and a unique control and study architecture to make powerful tools with the potential to transform the way NASA verifies and compares excavator designs. Energid's Actin software has been leveraged for this design validation. The architecture includes parametric and Monte Carlo studies tailored for validation of excavator designs and their control by remote human operators. It also includes the ability to interface with third-party software and human-input devices. Two types of simulation models have been adapted: high-fidelity discrete element models and fast analytical models. By using the first to establish parameters for the second, a system has been created that can be executed in real time, or faster than real time, on a desktop PC. This allows Monte Carlo simulations to be performed on a computer platform available to all researchers, and it allows human interaction to be included in a real-time simulation process. Metrics on excavator performance are established that work with the simulation architecture. Both static and dynamic metrics are included.

Pholsiri, Chalongrath↗

NASA NTRS1994

The cost of access to space

Nearly four decades into the space age, our biggest problem is still the high cost of transportation to space. Close behind are the relatively infrequent flight opportunities and high risk of the transportation systems we have. These problems are of course not independent; rather, they are interrelated measures of the difficulty of accelerating a payload through an ideal velocity increment of over 9 km/s and a height of 200 km or more in just a few minutes. These difficulties are not unrecognized, and the demand for newer, cheaper, more reliable, more frequently flying launch systems has been unending. Hundreds, maybe thousands of studies have been done on various approaches offering improved access to space, and each approach has its ardent supporters, convinced that no other approach can work as well. In the government, hardly a year passes without the attempted initiation of a new program to lower the cost and improve the reliability of space transportation. This paper does not attempt to decide the merits and demerits of various transportation concepts but examines the cost of access to space from a slightly different perspective, and attempts to use that perspective to reach some conclusions about characteristics that a next-generation system must have to yield lower cost, regardless of its design.

Griffin, Michael D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Innovative Pathways to Net Zero Emissions: Subnational Strategies for Distributed Solar Deployment to Improve Grid Quality and Reduce Energy Costs in Argentina

Through Net Zero World, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the National Energy Secretariat of Argentina, La Pampa's Energy and Mining Secretariat, Pampetrol, and the Administracion Provincial de Energia de La Pampa (APELP) conducted an integrated analysis of the power system of the La Pampa province in Argentina. The study assessed the impact that solar and battery energy storage systems could have on the region grid's reliability and electricity costs, providing insights into long-term decarbonization strategies across Argentina. The analysis demonstrated that these systems are expected not only to help with decarbonization efforts but also to bolster grid resiliency, reduce line losses, and improve voltage regulation while lowering electricity costs. The paper offers a replicable framework for similar studies across other Argentine provinces, which could inform a national grid reliability plan and promote regional coordination. Such coordination will play a key role in supporting a nationwide clean energy transition as Argentina increases its share of renewable energy. By coordinating subnational energy plans with national strategies, Argentina can secure a resilient clean energy future, leveraging the substantial renewable resources available across its provinces.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Road from the NASA Access to Space Study to a Reusable Launch Vehicle

NASA is cooperating with the aerospace industry to develop a space transportation system that provides reliable access-to-space at a much lower cost than is possible with today's launch vehicles. While this quest has been on-going for many years it received a major impetus when the U.S. Congress mandated as part of the 1993 NASA appropriations bill that: "In view of budget difficulties, present and future..., the National Aeronautics and Space Administration shall ... recommend improvements in space transportation." NASA, working with other organizations, including the Department of Transportation, and the Department of Defense identified three major transportation architecture options that were to be evaluated in the areas of reliability, operability and cost. These architectural options were: (1) retain and upgrade the Space Shuttle and the current expendable launch vehicles; (2) develop new expendable launch vehicles using conventional technologies and transition to these new vehicles beginning in 2005; and (3) develop new reusable vehicles using advanced technology, and transition to these vehicles beginning in 2008. The launch needs mission model was based on 1993 projections of civil, defense, and commercial payload requirements. This "Access to Space" study concluded that the option that provided the greatest potential for meeting the cost, operability, and reliability goals was a rocket-powered single-stage-to-orbit fully reusable launch vehicle (RLV) fleet designed with advanced technologies.

Powell, Richard W.↗