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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,315 records · Page 73
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

All-purpose, all-sky photometric redshifts for the Legacy Imaging Surveys Data Release 8

ABSTRACT In this paper, we present photometric redshift (photo-z) estimates for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Imaging Surveys, currently the most sensitive optical survey covering the majority of the extragalactic sky. Our photo-z methodology is based on a machine-learning approach, using sparse Gaussian processes augmented with Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) that allow regions of parameter space to be identified and trained separately in a purely data-driven way. The same GMMs are also used to calculate cost-sensitive learning weights that mitigate biases in the spectroscopic training sample. By design, this approach aims to produce reliable and unbiased predictions for all parts of the parameter space present in wide area surveys. Compared to previous literature estimates using the same underlying photometry, our photo-zs are significantly less biased and more accurate at z > 1, with negligible loss in precision or reliability for resolved galaxies at z < 1. Our photo-z estimates offer accurate predictions for rare high-value populations within the parent sample, including optically selected quasars at the highest redshifts (z > 6), as well as X-ray or radio continuum selected populations across a broad range of flux (densities) and redshift. Deriving photo-z estimates for the full Legacy Imaging Surveys Data Release 8, the catalogues provided in this work offer photo-z estimates predicted to be of high quality for ≳9 × 108 galaxies over ${\sim}19\, 400\, \text{deg}^{2}$ and spanning 0 < z ≲ 7, offering one of the most extensive samples of redshift estimates ever produced.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Search for a heavy Higgs boson decaying into a Z boson and another heavy Higgs boson in the $\ell \ell bb$ and $\ell \ell WW$ final states in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ $\text {TeV}$ with the ATLAS detector

A search for a heavy neutral Higgs boson, A decaying into a Z boson and another heavy Higgs boson, H, is performed using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb-1 from proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The search considers the Z boson decaying into electrons or muons and the H boson into a pair of b-quarks or W bosons. The mass range considered is 230–800 $\text {GeV}$ for the A boson and 130–700 $\text {GeV}$ for the H boson. The data are in good agreement with the background predicted by the Standard Model, and therefore 95% confidence-level upper limits for $\sigma \times B(A\rightarrow ZH)\times B(H\rightarrow bb \; \text {or} \; H \rightarrow WW)$ are set. The upper limits are in the range 0.0062–0.380 pb for the $H\rightarrow bb$ channel and in the range 0.023–8.9 pb for the $H\rightarrow WW$ channel. An interpretation of the results in the context of two-Higgs-doublet models is also given.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long-Term Creep-Rupture Behavior of Alloy Inconel 740/740H

To explore potential application of Ni-based alloys for power generation at the higher temperatures and pressures needed to achieve high thermal to electrical-energy conversion efficiency, an extensive creep-rupture dataset covering up to 875 °C and almost 70,000 h for Inconel 740/740H was analyzed using Larson–Miller parameter and Wilshire approaches. The results were used to assess the relative effectiveness of the two analytical methods, both in describing the experimental data and, because of the breadth of the dataset, using analyses of its shorter-time data to make creep lifetime predictions for much more extended times, which were then directly compared to the measured rupture times. The respective methods were also used to predict creep-limited lifetimes relevant to power production (that is, 100,000 h or greater). Despite the complexity of the precipitation-strengthened Inconel 740/740H alloy and the generalized parametric approach of these methodologies, the predictions based on such were reasonably accurate when the entire dataset was analyzed. However, when the analysis was confined to only data for conditions yielding creep-rupture times < 5,000 h( about 65 % of the entire dataset), the Wilshire correlation yielded better prediction for longer time lifetimes due to the inherent instability of the specific Larson–Miller formalism used in this analysis when extrapolated significantly outside its analysis range.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effect of blood viscosity on shear‐induced hemolysis using a magnetically levitated shearing device

Abstract Introduction Blood contacting medical devices, including rotary blood pumps, can cause shear‐induced blood damage that may lead to adverse effects in patients. Due in part to an inadequate understanding of how cell‐scale fluid mechanics impact red blood cell membrane deformation and damage, there is currently not a uniformly accepted engineering model for predicting blood damage caused by complex flow fields within ventricular assist devices (VADs). Methods We empirically investigated hemolysis in a magnetically levitated axial Couette flow device typical of a rotary VAD. The device is able to accurately control the shear rate and exposure time experienced by blood and to minimize the effects of other uncharacterized stresses. Using this device, we explored the effects of both hematocrit and plasma viscosity on shear‐induced hemolysis to characterize blood damage based on the viscosity‐independent shear rate, rather than on shear stress. Results Over a shear rate range of 20 000 – 80 000 1/s, the Index of Hemolysis (IH) was found to be dependent upon and well‐predicted by the shear rate alone. IH was independent of hematocrit, bulk viscosity, or the suspension media viscosity and less correlated to shear stress (MSE = 0.46–0.75) than to shear rate (MSE = 0.06–0.09). Conclusion This study recommends that future investigations of shear‐induced blood damage report findings with respect to the viscosity‐neutral term of shear rate, in addition to the bulk whole blood viscosity measured at an appropriate shear rate relevant to the flow conditions of the device.

Krisher, James A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Simplified Method for Predicting Shaker Voltage in IMMATs

Impedance Matched Multi-Axis Tests (IMMATs) can replicate in-service vibration induced stress more accurately than single axis shaker table tests as they can better match a part’s operational boundary conditions and excite it in multiple degrees of freedom simultaneously. Here, the shakers used in IMMATs are less powerful than shaker tables, so shaker force limits can be exceeded during tests if they are not placed adequately for the desired environment. The ability to predict shaker voltage and force before performing a test is, therefore, helpful in selecting shaker locations so that their limits are not exceeded. In this study, electrodynamic shakers were modeled as discrete electromechanical systems, and the shaker parameters were chosen to match experimentally obtained acceleration/voltage frequency response functions (FRFs). These models were coupled to a finite element model of the device under test (DUT) via dynamic substructuring, and the substructured model was demonstrated to accurately predict shaker voltage as well as the error in reproducing the environment at multiple accelerometer locations. A simple method called the FRF Multiplication method, in which the FRF of the substructured system is approximated as the product of two separate FRFs of the shaker and DUT respectively, was proposed and applied to the same system, yielding similar voltage and error predictions to those obtained using substructuring. Simple case studies were presented to explore the applicability of the proposed method, and it was demonstrated to have similar accuracy to the substructuring method in a range of cases. Additionally, we showed that while it was not possible to derive a unique model of the shakers from acceleration/voltage FRFs alone, the models that could be obtained were sufficient to predict test error almost perfectly and shaker voltage with less than 40 percent error.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward a Generalizable Prediction Model of Molten Salt Mixture Density with Chemistry‐Informed Transfer Learning

Optimally designing applications of molten salts requires knowledge of their thermophysical properties over a wide range of temperatures and compositions. There exist significant gaps in existing databases and this data can be challenging to experimentally measure due to high temperatures, salt corrosivity, and salt hygroscopicity. Existing databases have been used to create Redlich–Kister (RK) models for mixture density showing improved accuracy with respect to ideal mixing assumptions, but these models require subcomponent data measurements for each new system, therefore lacking generality. In order to address generalizability and data sparsity, a transfer learning procedure is proposed to train deep neural networks (DNNs) using a combination of semi‐empirical relationships (RK), data from the thermophysical arm of the molten salt thermal properties database and universal ab initio properties of component mixtures taken from the joint automated repository for various integrated simulations (JARVIS) classical force‐field inspired descriptors database to predict density in molten salts. Herein, it is shown that DNNs predict molten salt density with an r 2 over 0.99 and a mean absolute percentage error under 1%, outperforming alternative methods.

inorganic materials↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Electron Conductivity Regimes in the Bacterial Cytochrome Wire OmcS

The anaerobic bacterium Geobacter sulfurreducens produces extracellular, electronically conductive cytochrome polymer wires that are conductive over micron length scales. Structure models from cryo-electron microscopy data show OmcS wires form a linear chain of hemes along the protein wire axis, which is proposed as the structural basis supporting their electronic properties. However, the mechanism by which this heme arrangement supports long-range electronic conduction remains unknown. Structure models from cryo-electron microscopy data show these wires form a linear chain of hemes along the protein wire axis, which is proposed as the structural basis supporting their electronic properties. Existing computational models using static heme redox potentials and coupling energies fail to explain experimental observations, predicting conductances 10,000 to 100,000 times lower than measured values. Here, we investigate how dynamic disorder affects site energies, interheme coupling, and long-range electronic conductivity within these cytochrome wires. We introduce an approach to extract charge carrier site information directly from Kohn–Sham density functional theory, without employing projector schemes, and show that site and coupling energies are highly sensitive to changes in interheme geometry and the surrounding electrostatic environment. Unlike models that incorporate dynamic disorder as a thermally averaged quantity, our quantum charge carrier model incorporates proxies for dynamic disorder through decoherence corrections, yielding predicted diffusion coefficient closer to what is expected from experiment and comparable with other organic-based electronic materials. Based on these simulations, we propose that the instantaneous fluctuations of the local electrostatic environment can transiently lift energy degeneracies and delocalize charge carriers. Furthermore, these studies reveal how incorporating dynamic fluctuations associated with the environment resolves the discrepancy between theory and experiment in microbial cytochrome wires and highlight design principles for bioinspired, heme-based conductive materials.

Bioinorganic chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Crystal nucleation rates in one-component Yukawa systems

Nucleation in the supercooled Yukawa system is relevant for addressing current challenges in understanding a range of crystallizing systems including white dwarf (WD) stars. We use both brute force and seeded molecular dynamics simulations to study homogeneous nucleation of crystals from supercooled Yukawa liquids. With our improved approach to seeded simulations, we obtain quantitative predictions of the crystal nucleation rate and cluster size distributions as a function of temperature and screening length. These quantitative results show trends towards fast nucleation with short-ranged potentials. They also indicate that for temperatures T > 0.9⁢T m , where T m is the melt temperature, classical homogeneous nucleation is too slow to initiate crystallization but transient clusters of ~100 particles should be common. As a result, we apply these general results to a typical WD model and obtain a delay of ~0.6 Gyr in the onset of crystallization that may be observable.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Feed-Forward Compensation for Model Predictive Control in Tri-port Current-Source Medium-Voltage String Inverters for PV-Plus-Storage Farms

The novel tri-port current-source medium-voltage string inverter (TCS-MVSI) is a promising candidate for large-scale PV-plus-storage (PVS) farms owing to its galvanic isolation, easy storage integration, soft-switching capability across entire load range, controlled low dv/dt and EMI, benign fault tolerance, etc. Due to its low inertia feature, traditional PI-based control cannot manage large transients effectively. Instead, a model-based predictive control (MPC) is proposed to achieve robust and stable operation. As is well known, the control performance of MPC is compromised by the sampling and computational delay during implementation significantly, if not well addressed. This paper analyzed and quantified these delays and then proposes feed-forward compensation (FFC) for the MPC method to compensate the delays and the large parameter variations due to the low-inertia nature. In addition, this method also compensates for the high dc-link ripple within each switching cycle, a unique issue for low-inertia converters. Here, the proposed method requires low computational effort, allowing it to be extended for multiple ports. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been validated in experiments. In 10 kW test, the proposed method decreases the average dc-link current by 17%, leading to ~20% conduction losses and ~0.5% increase in converter efficiency. In addition, the peak dc-link current also decreases by 15%, resulting in reduced transformer size. As a result, an increased power density can be achieved with the proposed method. Similar improvements have been observed across the power range from 2 kW to 10 kW.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2023

A general predictive methodology for fuel-mixture properties up to supercritical conditions

A predictive thermodynamic model is utilized for the calculation of fuel properties of oxymethylene dimethyl ethers (OME 3–4 ), surrogates for gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel, as well as alcohol blends with gasoline and diesel. The alcohols used for these blends are methanol, ethanol, propanol, butanol and pentanol; their mixing ratio ranges from 10 to 50% by volume. The model is based on the Perturbed-Chain Statistical Association Fluid Theory (PC-SAFT) equation of state (EoS) and Vapor Liquid Equilibrium (VLE) calculations at constant temperature, density and composition. The model includes the association term, with the assumption of two association sites (2B scheme), to enable the modeling of alcohols. The pure-component parameters are estimated based on the Group Contribution (GC) method of various sources, as well as a parametrization model specifically designed for the case of OME 3–4 . The results of the computational model for the density, vapor pressure and distillation curves at various conditions, including high-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT), are compared to experimental and computational data available in the literature. In the cases where no measurements are available for the surrogates, experimental data for the corresponding target fuel are used, taking into consideration the inherent deviation in properties between real and surrogate fuel. Overall, the results are in good agreement with the data from the literature, with the average deviation not exceeding 12% for temperature (Kelvin) on the distillation curves, 10% for density and 46% for vapor pressure and the general trend being captured successfully. The use of different pure component parameter estimation techniques can further improve the prediction quality in the cases of OME3–4 and the aviation fuel surrogate, especially for the vapor pressure, leading to an average deviation lower than 18%. These results demonstrate the predictive capabilities of the model, which extend to a wide range of fuel types and pressure/temperature conditions. Through this investigation, the present work aims to establish the limits of applicability of this thermodynamic property prediction methodology.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Methodologies for Design, Characterization and Testing of Electrolytes that Enable Extreme Fast Charging of Lithium-ion Cells

Selection, testing and validation of electrolyte candidates for Li-ion cells are discussed, based on a 10-minute target for extreme fast charge (XFC). A combination of modeling and laboratory measurements create a timely and synergistic approach to identifying candidate electrolyte formulations. Multi-solvent systems provide a balanced set of properties, wherein lower molecular-weight solvents offer reduced viscosity, increased species diffusivity, and mitigation of concentration polarization at high charge rates. Carefully selected formulations can exhibit peak conductivity and usable conductivity range of two to three times that of the baseline EC-EMC (3:7, wt.) + LiPF 6 . Candidates are also chosen based on stability and longevity within the cell environment. Lab testing coincides with property predictions from the Advanced Electrolyte Model (AEM) and a macro-scale cell model. Furthermore, cell testing utilized coin and pouch cells having NMC532 or NMC811 cathodes with graphite electrodes. Results indicate combinations of low-molecular weight solvents are key for fast-charge electrolytes as they extend the useful conductivity range to both low and higher salt concentrations, and possess higher self-diffusivities compared to conventional solvents. This reduces impacts from concentration polarization. The choice of electrolyte also influences the tendency for lithium metal deposition at the anode, as showcased by experimental and modeling results herein.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for A Hybrid Biophysical-Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

AI/ML↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Decarburization Kinetics of Metal Droplets in Emulsion Zone

Abstract:: A mathematical model has been developed to predict the decarburization rate within individual droplets in the emulsion zone. All the chronological events pertaining to the life cycle of a metal droplet in the emulsion zone like oxygen supply (from slag), external and internal decarburization have been modeled dynamically and validated against experimental data available in open literature. The bloating behavior of metal droplets in the emulsion was represented theoretically by incorporating an escape function dependent on internal CO gas generation. The model is able to predict the onset of bloating and the residence time of metal droplets in the emulsion zone. The residence time of droplet containing 2.6 wt pct C and 0.007 wt pct S is in the range of 10 to 13 seconds. The contribution of decarburization rate in the emulsion zone to the overall decarburization rate is studied using the industrial data reported by Cicutti et al. The model predicts 5 to 75 pct of total decarburization takes place in the emulsion zone. It is found that the extent of decarburization of a metal droplet depends on its initial carbon content rather than its oxygen content for slag containing FeO greater than 10 wt pct.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Investigation of the end-gas autoignition process in natural gas engines and evaluation of the methane number index

Engine knock and misfire are barriers to pathways leading to high-efficiency Spark-Ignited (SI) Natural Gas (NG) engines. The general tendency to knock is highly dependent on engine operating conditions and the fuel reactivity. The problem is further complicated by the wide range of chemical reactivity in pipeline quality NG, represented by the Methane Number (MN) (65< MN<95). Understanding the underlying phenomena responsible for engine knock can support the development of predictive tools capable of identifying knock onset/intensity as well as a fuel’s propensity to knock, allowing engine manufacturers to expand the knock envelope and design more efficient/robust SI NG engines. Additionally, there is an opportunity for increased efficiency by controlling levels of end-gas autoignition if this can be predicted and controlled. This work focuses on the development of a novel methodology to understand/predict a fuel’s propensity to knock. This methodology is based on the charge fraction undergoing autoignition, namely fractional end-gas autoignition (F-EGAI), and was developed based on first order laminar flame speeds and ignition delay analysis combined with a 0-D homogeneous batch reactor model. This methodology proved to be suitable to predict a fuel’s propensity to knock, even under conditions when light knock was observed. The simple modeling approach was used to explain the results from a series of MN tests with multiple NG compositions exhibiting a wide range of reactivity compositions and providing insight on why fuels of very different chemical compositions can have the same MN. Finally, a CFD model was developed was used to confirm the methodology capability and provide further insights in the physical and chemical phenomena behind end gas autoignition.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting demand for hydrogen station fueling

Full function hydrogen stations are a reality; fuel cell electric vehicle drivers can pull up to commercial fueling stations and receive 3–5 kg in less than 5 min, for an approximately 300-mile range. The demand for hydrogen is increasing, driven by an increase in the fueling of public and private fuel cell vehicles. This study describes the development and value of a model that simulates stochastic future demand at a hydrogen filling station. The predictive hydrogen demand model described in this article is trained from mathematical models constructed from actual hydrogen fill count, amount, and frequency data. Future fill probabilities inform the hour-by-hour demand profile and the station state of either “available, ready to fill” or “available, filling”. For example, a prediction for a station generally dispensing 5,000 kg a week on a Friday afternoon at 4 p.m. is 16 fills, totaling 48.7 kg, with a 0.52 proportion of time spent in “available, filling” state yielding 31 min of filling time. This is a first-of-its kind, published study on predicting future hydrogen demand by the time of day (e.g., hour-by-hour intervals) and day of week. This study can be used for hydrogen station requirements and operation and maintenance strategies and to assess the impact of demand variations and scenarios. Finally, this article presents the current status of hydrogen demand, the model development methods, a set of sample results. Discussion and conclusions concentrate on the value and use of the proposed model.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Groundwater flowpath characteristics drive variability in per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) loading across a stream-wetland system

Groundwater dependent ecosystems in areas with industrial and military land use are at risk of direct exposure to a wide range of contaminants, including PFAS chemicals. Glaciated terrain often has mixed high and low permeability sediments coupled with groundwater flow-through lake features. These hydrogeologic attributes create highly complex ‘source to seep’ dynamics that make spatiotemporal contaminant transport patterns difficult to predict. We investigated one such system in detail using a suite of heat-tracing and chemical methods. Numerous (n=57) preferential groundwater discharge zones (vertical flux rates ranging 0.2 to 3.2 m/d) were identified across the upper Quashnet River stream-wetland system in Mashpee, MA, USA, adjacent to an Air Force Base with several known PFAS source areas. Surface-water and groundwater samples were collected and analyzed (n=145) for precursors and terminal PFAS compounds between March and September 2022. Samples were collected at identified seeps along the Quashnet River (n=59), from wells upgradient from the stream-wetland system (n= 44), from contributing flow-through kettle lakes (n=8), and at multiple locations along the Quashnet River (n=34). Samples from seeps and wells had measured PFAS concentrations ranging from non-detect to approximate 3,500 ng/L (mean= 1,650 ng/L), and a range of deuterium excess values (3.2 to 15.9 per mil) indicative of varying degrees of groundwater-lake interaction prior to emergence at the discharge zones. Groundwater-lake interaction along flowpaths that sourced the sampled seeps was farther supported by significant correlations (p < 0.01) between deuterium excess and %PFAS precursors, and between %PFAS precursors and multiple terminal PFAS compounds (e.g., PFPeS, PFBS, PFHxS). However, some sampled seeps contributing groundwater to the stream-wetland system had much higher total PFAS concentrations (>1000 ng/L) than the upgradient kettle lakes, despite showing lake (evaporative) isotopic signatures, indicating the potential for groundwater flowpath convergence at wetland discharge zones and the influence of lakebed PFAS precursor reactions. PFAS compounds and water isotopic composition at sampled multilevel groundwater wells, rivers, lakes, and seeps suggest that a complex mixture of source groundwater and flowpath characteristics are responsible for diverse observed PFAS mixtures at preferential discharge zones across the stream-wetland system. Further, total PFAS loading patterns to the Quashnet River via groundwater discharge remained remarkably similar from winter to summer to fall conditions, despite a regional dry period in late summer 2022 with the upper river channel completely drying. This work addresses gaps in the existing PFAS literature by demonstrating the importance of subsurface fate and transport on PFAS compound concentrations in controlling contaminant mass loading in preferential groundwater discharge zones and presents a transferrable field toolkit for efficient characterization of spatially preferential PFAS transport dynamics.

Contaminant transport↗
DOE OSTI2023

Range-wide population assessments for subalpine fir indicate widespread disturbance-driven decline

Subalpine forests in western North America are threatened by rapid climate change, increased activity by endemic and exotic insects and diseases, and changing wildfire regimes. The interactive effects of these stressors have resulted in pronounced population declines in many subalpine tree species; however, a systematic assessment of the status and trends of subalpine forests is lacking. Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) is a widespread species across the western United States, with documented population declines in many parts of its distribution. Here we use subalpine fir as an initial leverage point to build a more complete understanding of subalpine forest baseline conditions and responses to environmental change. Specifically, we leverage the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to (1) ask how subalpine fir populations are changing across the species’ distribution in the western US, (2) assess the drivers of recent subalpine fir population trends, and (3) explore whether those changes imply generalized species-wide and/or system-wide decline. We found that subalpine fir abundance and basal area are declining concurrently across ~ 62% of the species’ distribution, and increasing across ~ 19%. Range-wide, we estimated 25.02 ± 2.74 % subalpine fir mortality between 2000 and 2009 and 2010–2019 FIA inventory periods, with higher mortality concentrated in the eastern Oregon Cascades, central Idaho, and parts of southern Colorado. High regeneration density did not predict positive population trajectories, which were instead associated with higher rates of adult recruitment. While the importance of different mortality agents varied substantially between ecoregions, 83.4% of total range-wide mortality was related to fire or biological disturbance. Declining subalpine fir basal area coincided with declines in the basal area of other co-occurring tree species in 39% of subalpine forest area, and with increases in conspecific basal area in 22% of forest area. Fire disturbance was the single largest cause of subalpine fir mortality; however, even where subalpine fir fire mortality was high, mortality among other species was primarily caused by insects. In conclusion, our results suggest that subalpine fir declines across large portions of the western United States are driven by forest disturbance, and that declines in subalpine fir populations may be indicative of negative change in subalpine forest systems broadly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantitative Prediction of Perovskite Stability Using Accelerated Testing and Machine Learning

PV technologies based on hybrid perovskites offer the potential for reducing solar cell costs, but they are particularly vulnerable to degradation by environmental factors such as moisture, oxygen, and illumination. Commercialization will require not only stable materials and device architectures but also accelerated testing protocols and models that can predict degradation from the accelerated testing data. Here, we report results from in situ photoluminescence (PL) and photoconductivity (PC) measurements during perovskite degradation with simultaneous optical transmittance (Tr) measurements or reflected dark field (DF) imaging. From PL, PC, Tr, and DF, we determine (respectively) the steady-state quasi-Fermi level splitting, the mean effective carrier diffusion length, the extent of conversion of perovskite to higher bandgap degradation products, and the extent of scattering from domains with different orientation or composition, all as a function of time during degradation. Simultaneous measurement of PL-PC-Tr or PL-PC-DF on perovskite absorbers in an environmental chamber over a wide range of humidity, oxygen, temperature, and illumination levels yields a rich data set. We use machine learning to develop a model that accurately predicts (within 10%) the time for the diffusion length to decrease to 85% of its initial value. The model takes the environmental conditions and the first few measurements from the PL-PC-Tr or PL-PC-DF experiment as input. Thus, the model provides a framework to interpret the results of accelerated testing of absorber materials. One of the dominant features in the model of degradation for CH 3 NH 3 PbI 3 is the initial rate at which transmittance increase. For devices with opaque contacts, the pixel-averaged rate of change of the intensity in dark-field images can be used in place of transmittance. Results are also presented on full PV devices with in-situ current-voltage (JV) measurements. Here, the data from simultaneous PL-DF-JV under environmental stresses reveal intimate connection between degradation and shunts and provide a framework to extend accelerated testing to devices. Further, the presentation reveals underlying universal behavior in degradation pathways over a broad range of environmental stresses and perovskite compositions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗