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Scalable and efficient algorithms for the propagation of uncertainty from data through inference to prediction for large-scale problems, with application to flow of the Antarctic ice sheet

The majority of research on efficient and scalable algorithms in computational science and engineering has focused on the forward problem : given parameter inputs, solve the governing equations to determine output quantities of interest. In contrast, in this paper, we consider the broader question: given a (large-scale) model containing uncertain parameters, (possibly) noisy observational data, and a prediction quantity of interest, how do we construct efficient and scalable algorithms to (1) infer the model parameters from the data (the deterministic inverse problem ), (2) quantify the uncertainty in the inferred parameters (the Bayesian inference problem), and (3) propagate the resulting uncertain parameters through the model to issue predictions with quantified uncertainties (the forward uncertainty propagation problem )? We present efficient and scalable algorithms for this end-to-end, data-to-prediction process under the Gaussian approximation and in the context of modeling the flow of the Antarctic ice sheet and its effect on loss of grounded ice to the ocean. The ice is modeled as a viscous, incompressible, creeping, shear-thinning fluid. The observational data come from satellite measurements of surface ice flow velocity, and the uncertain parameter field to be inferred is the basal sliding parameter, represented by a heterogeneous coefficient in a Robin boundary condition at the base of the ice sheet. The prediction quantity of interest is the present-day ice mass flux from the Antarctic continent to the ocean. We show that the work required for executing this data-to-prediction process—measured in number of forward (and adjoint) ice sheet model solves—is independent of the state dimension, parameter dimension, data dimension, and the number of processor cores. The key to achieving this dimension independence is to exploit the fact that, despite their large size, the observational data typically provide only sparse information on model parameters. This property can be exploited to construct a low rank approximation of the linearized parameter-to-observable map via randomized SVD methods and adjoint-based actions of Hessians of the data misfit functional.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Qutrit Randomized Benchmarking

Ternary quantum processors offer significant potential computational advantages over conventional qubit technologies, leveraging the encoding and processing of quantum information in qutrits (three-level systems). Therefore, to evaluate and compare the performance of such emerging quantum hardware it is essential to have robust benchmarking methods suitable for a higher-dimensional Hilbert space. We demonstrate extensions of industry standard randomized benchmarking (RB) protocols, developed and used extensively for qubits, suitable for ternary quantum logic. Using a superconducting five-qutrit processor, we find an average single-qutrit process infidelity of 3.8×10 -3 . Through interleaved RB, we characterize a few relevant gates, and employ simultaneous RB to fully characterize crosstalk errors. Finally, we apply cycle benchmarking to a two-qutrit CSUM gate and obtain a two-qutrit process fidelity of 0.85. Our results present and demonstrate RB-based tools to characterize the performance of a qutrit processor, and a general approach to diagnose control errors in future qudit hardware.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Virtual tool mark generation for efficient striation analysis in forensic science

In 2009, a National Academy of Sciences report called for investigation into the scienti c basis behind tool mark comparisons (National Academy of Sciences, 2009). Answering this call, Chumbley et al. (2010) attempted to prove or disprove the hypothesis that tool marks are unique to a single tool. They developed a statistical algorithm that could, in most cases, discern matching and non-matching tool marks made at di erent angles by sequentially numbered screwdriver tips. Moreover, in the cases where the algorithm misinterpreted a pair of marks, an experienced forensics examiner could discern the correct outcome. While this research served to con rm the basic assumptions behind tool mark analysis, it also suggested that statistical analysis software could help to reduce the examiner's workload. This led to a new tool mark analysis approach, introduced in this thesis, that relies on 3D scans of screwdriver tip and marked plate surfaces at the micrometer scale from an optical microscope. These scans are carefully cleaned to remove noise from the data acquisition process and assigned a coordinate system that mathematically de nes angles and twists in a natural way. The marking process is then simulated by using a 3D graphics software package to impart rotations to the tip and take the projection of the tip's geometry in the direction of tool travel. The edge of this projection, retrieved from the 3D graphics software, becomes a virtual tool mark. Using this method, virtual marks are made at increments of 5 and compared to a scan of the evidence mark. The previously developed statistical package from Chumbley et al. (2010) performs the comparison, comparing the similarity of the geometry of both marks to the similarity that would occur due to random chance. The resulting statistical measure of the likelihood of the match informs the examiner of the angle of the best matching virtual mark, allowing the examiner to focus his/her mark analysis on a smaller range of angles. Preliminary results are quite promising. In a study with both sides of 6 screwdriver tips and 34 corresponding marks, the method distinguished known matches from known non-matches with zero false positive matches and only two matches mistaken for non-matches. For matches, it could predict the correct marking angle within 5-10 . Moreover, on a standard desktop computer, the virtual marking software is capable of cleaning 3D tip and plate scans in minutes and producing a virtual mark and comparing it to a real mark in seconds. These results support several of the professional conclusions of the tool mark analysis com- munity, including the idea that marks produced by the same tool only match if they are made at similar angles. The method also displays the potential to automate part of the comparison process, freeing the examiner to focus on other tasks, which is important in busy, backlogged crime labs. Finally, the method o ers the unique chance to directly link an evidence mark to the tool that produced it while reducing potential damage to the evidence.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Pulsed Thermal Tomography Nondestructive Examination of Additively Manufactured Reactor Materials and Components (Final Technical Report)

Metal Additive Manufacturing (AM) is a promising method for cost-efficient fabrication of complex shape structures for applications in harsh environment, such as in a nuclear reactor. However, internal defects (pores) occur in high-strength AM alloys, which are manufactured with Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) AM method. Pulsed Infrared Thermography (PIT) is an efficient nondestructive evaluation (NDE) method to examine actual structures, because this method offers one-sided non-contact measurements, and fast processing of large sample areas. However, imaging of material defects, particularly defects with sizes at microscopic level, is challenging. In this report, we benchmark the performance of several Unsupervised Learning (UL) algorithms designed to enhance imaging of microscopic defects in metals with PIT. UL aims to learn the latent principal patterns (dictionaries) in PIT data to detect defects with minimal human supervision. Performance of Independent Component Analysis (ICA), Sparse Coding (SC), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) was compared using F-score, UL model training time and defects reconstruction time. We obtained the average F-score of 0.75, and a highest F-score of 0.89 for the EFA algorithm. Overall, EFA outperforms other UL algorithms considered in this study. In another approach, we investigate Thermal Tomography (TT), which is a computational method for reconstruction of depth profile of internal material defects from PIT nondestructive evaluation (NDE). TT algorithm obtains depth reconstructions of thermal effusivity, which has been shown to provide visualization of subsurface internals defects in metals. In many applications, one needs to determine the defect shape and orientation from reconstructed effusivity images. Interpretation of TT images is non-trivial because of blurring, which increases with depth due to heat diffusion-based nature of image formation. We have developed a deep learning convolutional neural network (CNN) to classify size and orientation of subsurface material defects in TT images. CNN was trained with TT images produced with computer simulations of 2D metallic structures (thin plates) containing elliptical subsurface voids. Performance of CNN was investigated using test TT images developed with computer simulations of plates containing elliptical defects, and defects with shape imported from scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images. CNN demonstrated the ability to classify radii and angular orientation of elliptical defects in previously unseen test TT images. We have also demonstrated that CNN trained on TT images of elliptical defects is capable of classifying shape and orientation of irregular defects. Training the CNN on irregular defect shapes instead of on elliptical shapes would make the resulting classifications more descriptive of actual defect shapes. However, this requires a much higher volume of SEM images of material defects, which are difficult to obtain because of random occurrence of defects in LPBF. To address this challenge, we developed a generative adversarial network (GAN) to augment the existing dataset of SEM defect images. The GAN model is demonstrated to create novel yet realistic defect shapes that can be used as input for simulated PTT images to train CNN. We also investigate several approaches based on Gaussian Random Circle and Bezier Curves for constructing parametric models of irregular-shape defects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modeling the Impact of Baryons on Subhalo Populations with Machine Learning

Here, we identify subhalos in dark matter–only (DMO) zoom-in simulations that are likely to be disrupted due to baryonic effects by using a random forest classifier trained on two hydrodynamic simulations of Milky Way (MW)–mass host halos from the Latte suite of the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. We train our classifier using five properties of each disrupted and surviving subhalo: pericentric distance and scale factor at first pericentric passage after accretion and scale factor, virial mass, and maximum circular velocity at accretion. Our five-property classifier identifies disrupted subhalos in the FIRE simulations with an 85% out-of-bag classification score. We predict surviving subhalo populations in DMO simulations of the FIRE host halos, finding excellent agreement with the hydrodynamic results; in particular, our classifier outperforms DMO zoom-in simulations that include the gravitational potential of the central galactic disk in each hydrodynamic simulation, indicating that it captures both the dynamical effects of a central disk and additional baryonic physics. We also predict surviving subhalo populations for a suite of DMO zoom-in simulations of MW-mass host halos, finding that baryons impact each system consistently and that the predicted amount of subhalo disruption is larger than the host-to-host scatter among the subhalo populations. Although the small size and specific baryonic physics prescription of our training set limits the generality of our results, our work suggests that machine-learning classification algorithms trained on hydrodynamic zoom-in simulations can efficiently predict realistic subhalo populations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

4-Clique network minor embedding for quantum annealers

Quantum annealing is a quantum algorithm for computing solutions to combinatorial optimization problems. This study proposes a method for minor embedding optimization problems onto sparse quantum annealing hardware graphs called 4-clique network minor embedding. This method is in contrast to the standard minor embedding technique of using a path of linearly connected qubits in order to represent a logical variable state. The 4-clique minor embedding is possible on Pegasus graph connectivity, which is the native hardware graph for some of the current D-Wave quantum annealers. The Pegasus hardware graph contains many cliques of size 4, making it possible to form a graph composed entirely of paths of connected 4-cliques on which a problem can be minor-embedded. The 4-clique chains come at the cost of additional qubit usage on the hardware graph, but they allow for stronger coupling within each chain, thereby increasing chain integrity, reducing chain breaks, and allow for greater usage of the available energy scale for programming logical problem coefficients on current quantum annealers. The 4-clique minor embedding technique is compared with the standard linear path minor embedding with experiments on two D-Wave quantum annealing processors with Pegasus hardware graphs. We show proof-of-concept experiments where the 4-clique minor embeddings can use weak chain strengths while successfully carrying out the computation of minimizing random all-to-all spin glass problem instances. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Smart Scattering Scanning Near-Field Optical Microscopy

Scattering scanning near-field optical microscopy (s-SNOM) provides spectroscopic imaging from molecular to quantum materials with few nanometer deep subdiffraction limited spatial resolution. However, in its conventional implementation s-SNOM is slow to effectively acquire a series of spatio-spectral images, especially with large fields of view. This problem is further exacerbated for weak resonance contrast or when using light sources with limited spectral irradiance. Indeed, the generally limited signal-to-noise ratio prevents sampling a weak signal at the Nyquist sampling rate. Here, we demonstrate how acquisition time and sampling rate can be significantly reduced by using compressed sampling, matrix completion, and adaptive random sampling, while maintaining or even enhancing the physical or chemical image content. We use fully sampled real data sets of molecular, biological, and quantum materials as ground-truth physical data and show how deep under-sampling with a corresponding reduction of acquisition time by 1 order of magnitude or more retains the core s-SNOM image information. We demonstrate that a sampling rate of up to 6× smaller than the Nyquist criterion can be applied, which would provide a 30-fold reduction in the data required under typical experimental conditions. Furthermore, our smart s-SNOM approach is generally applicable and provides systematic full spatio-spectral s-SNOM imaging with a large field of view at high spectral resolution and reduced acquisition time.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure From Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. Here, an experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (n e ) and electron temperature (T e ) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (I p ), toroidal magnetic field (B Φ ), neutral beam heating power (P NBI ) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Towards operational atmospheric correction of airborne hyperspectral imaging spectroscopy: Algorithm evaluation, key parameter analysis, and machine learning emulators

Atmospheric correction of airborne hyperspectral imaging spectroscopy (AHIS) to obtain high-quality surface reflectance is the prerequisite for remote sensing applications. Over the last decades, different atmospheric correction methods have been developed based on radiative transfer models (RTMs), however, the relative performances of different algorithms are unclear. Automated operational atmospheric correction methods to process large-volume AHIS data in a high-accurate and high-throughput manner are still lacking. Therefore, this study proposed an operational atmospheric correction pipeline for deriving surface reflectance from AHIS data. To ensure the accuracy and efficiency of the pipeline, we focused on three specific aspects: (1) selecting a suitable RTM for the development of atmospheric lookup tables (LUTs) by comparing the commercial MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmission (MODTRAN) and open-sourced Library for Radiative TRANsfer (LibRadTRAN) models, where the widely-used software, Atmospheric/Topographic Correction for Airborne Imagery (ATCOR), was used as benchmarks; (2) identifying key atmospheric correction parameters and determining suitable sources for parameter retrievals including AHIS, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET); and (3) testing the performance of using machine learning emulators to speed up the RTM-based atmospheric correction. Results indicate that (1) atmospheric correction based on MODTRAN LUTs can produce surface reflectance accurately with mean absolute errors < 0.05 and cosine similarities > 0.98 compared to field measurements, which is comparable to the software ATCOR and slightly outperforms the LibRadTRAN LUTs; (2) sobol global sensitivity analysis demonstrates that in the atmospheric correction, visibility and water vapor are two key parameters that can be accurately derived from AHIS in contrast to MODIS or AERONET data; and (3) Random Forest emulators can produce accurate estimations of surface reflectance with mean absolute errors < 0.03 and cosine similarities > 0.98 for higher processing efficiency and determine a suitable set of wavelengths for retrieving atmospheric visibility and water vapor. In conclusion, the proposed atmospheric correction pipeline also improved the four-stream radiative transfer theory for airborne applications by considering adjacent effects from airborne surrounding pixels and can also be applied for atmospheric correction of hyperspectral data from spaceborne missions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A Heterogeneous System for Eagle Detection, Deterrent, and Wildlife Collision Detection for Wind Turbines (Final Technical Report)

This report summarizes the design, implementation, and test of an integrated system for automated detection and deterrence of eagles, with included wind turbine blade strike detection and imaging functionality. A machine learning approach was used in conjunction with a 360° camera system for automated detection and classification of golden eagles. This was developed using footage obtained from trained golden eagles and other raptors, in collaboration with wildlife biologists and professional bird handlers. Oregon State University developed a visual deterrent system, which uses inflatable anthropomorphic sculptures with random, kinetic motion to deter eagles, and conducted limited field testing on live eagles; the deterrent can be triggered by the visual detection of eagles using the vision system. Finally, a multi-sensor module was developed that is mounted at the turbine blade root. This module measures vibration and other motions to detect blade strikes, and an integrated on-blade camera captures an image of any impacting objects. Long-term, this blade strike detection system is intended to support an automatic monitoring and certification system for the eagle detection and deterent system. Independent field testing of each system component is described. Testing of the integrated system on an operational wind turbine was conducted across three separate field tests. This includes multi-day fields tests on a General Electric 1.5MW wind turbine at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) in Boulder, CO in October 2018 and July 2019; installation procedures, test procedures, and a summary of collected data are presented. A third multi-day on-turbine field test is also presented, which was performed using a General Electric 1.5MW wind turbine at the North American Wind Research and Training Center (NAWRTC) at Mesalands Community College, Tucumcari, NM in April 2019. Across these field tests, the vision system was demonstrated using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), and the eagle classification algorithm was not tested; the visual deterrent system was demonstrated, including automatic, remote deployment following surrogate visual detections; and, multi-sensor on-blade data was recorded across multiple wind turbine operational conditions and through more than 100 surrogate blade strikes using soft projectiles, including the successful demonstration of automatic image capture of striking objects. This data set was also used for offline development and validation of enhanced collision detection algorithms. As summarized in this report, the development and field validation of an integrated detection, deterrent, and blade collision detection system represents a critical proof of concept for future technology development of related detection and deterrent technologies, where both deterrent as well as collision detection recording devices are needed for future siting, monitoring, and operation of wind turbine installations, both onshore and offshore.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

ROM-Based Surrogate Systems Modeling of EBR-II

We report the System Analysis Module (SAM), developed and maintained by Argonne National Laboratory, is designed to provide whole-plant transient safety analysis capabilities for a number of advanced non-light water reactors, including sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), lead-cooled fast reactor (LFR), and molten salt reactor (MSR)/fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) designs. SAM is primarily constructed as a systems-level analysis tool, with the potential to incorporate reduced order models from three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to improve characterization of complex, multidimensional physics. It is recognized that the computational expense associated with CFD can be intractable for various engineering analyses, such as uncertainty quantification, inference, and design optimization. This paper explores the reducibility of a SAM model using recent advances in randomized linear algebra techniques, which attempt to find recurring patterns in the various realizations generated by a model after randomly perturbing all its input parameters. The reduction is described in terms of fewer degrees of freedom (DOFs), referred to as the active DOFs, for the model variables such as input model parameters and model responses. The results indicate that there is significant room for additional reduction that may be leveraged for additional computational gains when employing SAM for engineering-intensive analyses that require repeated model executions. Different from physics-based reduction approaches, the proposed approach allows one to estimate upper bounds on the reduction errors, which are rigorously developed in this work. Finally, different methods for surrogate model construction, such as regression and neural network-based training, are employed to correlate the input and output active DOFs, which are related back to the original variables using matrix-based linear transformations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Testing and Design of Discriminants for Local Seismic Events Recorded during the Redmond Salt Mine Monitoring Experiment

The Redmond Salt Mine (RSM) Monitoring Experiment in Utah was designed to record seismoacoustic data at distances less than 50 km for algorithm testing and development. During the experiment from October 2017 to July 2019, six broadband seismic stations were operating at a time, with three of them having fixed locations for the duration, whereas the three other stations were moved to different locations every one-and-half to two-and-half months. RSM operations consist of nighttime underground blasting several times per week. The RSM is located in proximity to a belt of active seismicity, allowing direct comparison of natural and anthropogenic sources. Using the recorded data set, we built 1373 events with local magnitude (M L ) of -2.4 and lower to 3.3. For 75 blasts (RMEs) from the Redmond Salt Mine and 206 tectonic earthquakes (EQs), both M L and the coda duration magnitude (MC) are well constrained. We used these events to test and design discriminants that separate the RMEs from the EQs and are effective at local distances. The discriminants consist of M L -M C , low-frequency Sg to high-frequency Sg, Pg/Sg phase-amplitude ratios, and Rg/Sg spectral amplitude ratios, as well as different combinations of two or more of these classifiers. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of 0.92–1.0 for M L -M C , low-frequency Sg to high-frequency Sg, and Rg/Sg indicate that these discriminants are very effective. Conversely, the AUC of only 0.57 for Pg/Sg suggests that this discriminant is only slightly better than a random classifier. Among the effective classifiers, Rg/Sg, shows the lowest likelihood of misclassification (4.3%) for the populations. In conclusion, results of joint discriminant analyses suggest that even the arguably ineffective single classifier, like Pg/Sg in this case, can provide some value when used in combination with others.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A flexible class of priors for orthonormal matrices with basis function-specific structure

Statistical modeling of high-dimensional matrix-valued data motivates the use of a low-rank representation that simultaneously summarizes key characteristics of the data and enables dimension reduction. Low-rank representations commonly factor the original data into the product of orthonormal basis functions and weights, where each basis function represents an independent feature of the data. However, the basis functions in these factorizations are typically computed using algorithmic methods that cannot quantify uncertainty or account for basis function correlation structure a priori. While there exist Bayesian methods that allow for a common correlation structure across basis functions, empirical examples motivate the need for basis function-specific dependence structure. We propose a prior distribution for orthonormal matrices that can explicitly model basis function-specific structure. The prior is used within a general probabilistic model for singular value decomposition to conduct posterior inference on the basis functions while accounting for measurement error and fixed effects. We discuss how the prior specification can be used for various scenarios and demonstrate favorable model properties through synthetic data examples. Finally, we apply our method to two-meter air temperature data from the Pacific Northwest, enhancing our understanding of the Earth system’s internal variability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Spectroscopic Needs for Imaging Dark Energy Experiments

Ongoing and near-future imaging-based dark energy experiments are critically dependent upon photometric redshifts (a.k.a. photo-z’s): i.e., estimates of the redshifts of objects based only on flux information obtained through broad filters. Higher-quality, lower-scatter photo-z’s will result in smaller random errors on cosmological parameters; while systematic errors in photometric redshift estimates, if not constrained, may dominate all other uncertainties from these experiments. The desired optimization and calibration is dependent upon spectroscopic measurements for secure redshift information; this is the key application of galaxy spectroscopy for imaging-based dark energy experiments. Hence, to achieve their full potential, imaging-based experiments will require large sets of objects with spectroscopically-determined redshifts, for two purposes: Training: Objects with known redshift are needed to map out the relationship between object color and z (or, equivalently, to determine empirically-calibrated templates describing the rest-frame spectra of the full range of galaxies, which may be used to predict the color-z relation). The ultimate goal of training is to minimize each moment of the distribution of differences between photometric redshift estimates and the true redshifts of objects, making the relationship between them as tight as possible. The larger and more complete our “training set” of spectroscopic redshifts is, the smaller the RMS photo-z errors should be, increasing the constraining power of imaging experiments; Requirements: Spectroscopic redshift measurements for ~30,000 objects over >~15 widely-separated regions, each at least ~20 arcmin in diameter, and reaching the faintest objects used in a given experiment, will likely be necessary if photometric redshifts are to be trained and calibrated with conventional techniques. Larger, more complete samples (i.e., with longer exposure times) can improve photo-z algorithms and reduce scatter further, enhancing the science return from planned experiments greatly (increasing the Dark Energy Task Force figure of merit by up to ~50%); Options: This spectroscopy will most efficiently be done by covering as much of the optical and near-infrared spectrum as possible at modestly high spectral resolution (λ/Δλ > ~3000), while maximizing the telescope collecting area, field of view on the sky, and multiplexing of simultaneous spectra. The most efficient instrument for this would likely be either the proposed GMACS/MANIFEST spectrograph for the Giant Magellan Telescope or the OPTIMOS spectrograph for the European Extremely Large Telescope, depending on actual properties when built. The PFS spectrograph at Subaru would be next best and available considerably earlier, c. 2018; the proposed ngCFHT and SSST telescopes would have similar capabilities but start later. Other key options, in order of increasing total time required, are the WFOS spectrograph at TMT, MOONS at the VLT, and DESI at the Mayall 4 m telescope (or the similar 4MOST and WEAVE projects); of these, only DESI, MOONS, and PFS are expected to be available before 2020. Table 2-3 of this white paper summarizes the observation time required at each facility for strawman training samples. To attain secure redshift measurements for a high fraction of targeted objects and cover the full redshift span of future experiments, additional near-infrared spectroscopy will also be required; this is best done from space, particularly with WFIRST-2.4 and JWST; Calibration: The first several moments of redshift distributions (the mean, RMS redshift dispersion, etc.), must be known to high accuracy for cosmological constraints not to be systematics-dominated (equivalently, the moments of the distribution of differences between photometric and true redshifts could be determined instead). The ultimate goal of calibration is to characterize these moments for every subsample used in analyses - i.e., to minimize the uncertainty in their mean redshift, RMS dispersion, etc. – rather than to make the moments themselves small. Calibration may be done with the same spectroscopic dataset used for training if that dataset is extremely high in redshift completeness (i.e., no populations of galaxies to be used in analyses are systematically missed). Accurate photo-z calibration is necessary for all imaging experiments; Requirements: If extremely low levels of systematic incompleteness (<~0.1%) are attained in training samples, the same datasets described above should be sufficient for calibration. However, existing deep spectroscopic surveys have failed to yield secure redshifts for 30–60% of targets, so that would require very large improvements over past experience. This incompleteness would be a limiting factor for training, but catastrophic for calibration. If <~0.1% incompleteness is not attainable, the best known option for calibration of photometric redshifts is to utilize cross-correlation statistics in some form. The most direct method for this uses cross-correlations between positions on the sky of bright objects of known spectroscopic redshift with the sample of objects that we wish to calibrate the redshift distribution for, measured as a function of spectroscopic z. For such a calibration, redshifts of ~100,000 objects over at least several hundred square degrees, spanning the full redshift range of the samples used for dark energy, would be necessary; and Options: The proposed BAO experiment eBOSS would provide sufficient spectroscopy for basic calibrations, particularly for ongoing and near-future imaging experiments. The planned DESI experiment would provide excellent calibration with redundant cross-checks, but will start after the conclusion of some imaging projects. An extension of DESI to the Southern hemisphere would provide the best possible calibration from cross-correlation methods for DES and LSST. We thus anticipate that our two primary needs for spectroscopy – training and calibration of photometric redshifts – will require two separate solutions. For ongoing and future projects to reach their full potential, new spectroscopic samples of faint objects will be needed for training; those new samples may be suitable for calibration, but the latter possibility is uncertain. In contrast, wide-area samples of bright objects are poorly suited for training, but can provide high-precision calibrations via cross-correlation techniques. Additional training/calibration redshifts and/or host galaxy spectroscopy would enhance the use of supernovae and galaxy clusters for cosmology. We also summarize additional work on photometric redshift techniques that will be needed to prepare for data from ongoing and future dark energy experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Static Subspace Approximation for Random Phase Approximation Correlation Energies: Implementation and Performance

Developing theoretical understanding of complex reactions and processes at interfaces requires using methods that go beyond semilocal density functional theory to accurately describe the interactions between solvent, reactants and substrates. Methods based on many-body perturbation theory, such as the random phase approximation (RPA), have previously been limited due to their computational complexity. However, this is now a surmountable barrier due to the advances in computational power available, in particular through modern GPU-based supercomputers. In this work, we describe the implementation of RPA calculations within BerkeleyGW and show its favorable computational performance on large complex systems relevant for catalysis and electrochemistry applications. Our implementation builds off of the static subspace approximation which, by employing a compressed representation of the frequency dependent polarizability, enables the evaluation of the RPA correlation energy with significant acceleration and systematically controllable accuracy. We find that the computational cost of calculating the RPA correlation energy scales only linearly with system size for systems containing up to 50 thousand bands, and is expected to scale quadratically thereafter. We also show excellent strong scaling results across several supercomputers, demonstrating the performance and portability of this implementation.

algorithmic development↗

SU-E-T-20: A Correlation Study of 2D and 3D Gamma Passing Rates for Prostate IMRT Plans

Purpose: To investigate the correlation between the two-dimensional gamma passing rate (2D %GP) and three-dimensional gamma passing rate (3D %GP) in prostate IMRT quality assurance. Methods: Eleven prostate IMRT plans were randomly selected from the clinical database and were used to obtain dose distributions in the phantom and patient. Three types of delivery errors (MLC bank sag errors, central MLC errors and monitor unit errors) were intentionally introduced to modify the clinical plans through an in-house Matlab program. This resulted in 187 modified plans. The 2D %GP and 3D %GP were analyzed using different dose-difference and distance-toagreement (1%-1mm, 2%-2mm and 3%-3mm) and 20% dose threshold. The 2D %GP and 3D %GP were then compared not only for the whole region, but also for the PTVs and critical structures using the statistical Pearson’s correlation coefficient (γ). Results: For different delivery errors, the average comparison of 2D %GP and 3D %GP showed different conclusions. The statistical correlation coefficients between 2D %GP and 3D %GP for the whole dose distribution showed that except for 3%/3mm criterion, 2D %GP and 3D %GP of 1%/1mm criterion and 2%/2mm criterion had strong correlations (Pearson’s γ value >0.8). Compared with the whole region, the correlations of 2D %GP and 3D %GP for PTV were better (the γ value for 1%/1mm, 2%/2mm and 3%/3mm criterion was 0.959, 0.931 and 0.855, respectively). However for the rectum, there was no correlation between 2D %GP and 3D %GP. Conclusion: For prostate IMRT, the correlation between 2D %GP and 3D %GP for the PTV is better than that for normal structures. The lower dose-difference and DTA criterion shows less difference between 2D %GP and 3D %GP. Other factors such as the dosimeter characteristics and TPS algorithm bias may also influence the correlation between 2D %GP and 3D %GP.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Comparison of machine learning and electrical resistivity arrays to inverse modeling for locating and characterizing subsurface targets

Here, this study evaluates the performance of multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms and electrical resistivity (ER) arrays for inversion with comparison to a conventional Gauss-Newton numerical inversion method. Four different ML models and four arrays were used for the estimation of only six variables for locating and characterizing hypothetical subsurface targets. The combination of dipole-dipole with Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP-NN) had the highest accuracy. Evaluation showed that both MLP-NN and Gauss-Newton methods performed well for estimating the matrix resistivity while target resistivity accuracy was lower, and MLP-NN produced sharper contrast at target boundaries for the field and hypothetical data. Both methods exhibited comparable target characterization performance, whereas MLP-NN had increased accuracy compared to Gauss-Newton in prediction of target width and height, which was attributed to numerical smoothing present in the Gauss-Newton approach. MLP-NN was also applied to a field dataset acquired at U.S. DOE Hanford site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Localization dynamics in a centrally coupled system

In systems in which interactions couple a central degree of freedom and a bath, one would expect signatures of the bath's phase to be reflected in the dynamics of the central degree of freedom. This has been recently explored in connection with many-body localized baths coupled with a central qubit or a single-cavity mode - systems with growing experimental relevance in various platforms. Such models also have an interesting connection with Floquet many-body localization via quantizing the external drive, although this has been relatively unexplored. Here we adapt the multilayer multiconfigurational time-dependent Hartree (ML-MCTDH) method, a well-known tree tensor network algorithm, to numerically simulate the dynamics of a central degree of freedom, represented by a d-level system (qudit), coupled to a disordered interacting one-dimensional spin bath. ML-MCTDH allows us to reach ≈10 2 lattice sites, a far larger system size than what is feasible with exact diagonalization or kernel polynomial methods. From the intermediate time dynamics, we find a well-defined thermodynamic limit for the qudit dynamics upon appropriate rescaling of the system-bath coupling. The spin system shows similar scaling collapse in the Edward-Anderson spin-glass order parameter or entanglement entropy at relatively short times. At longer timescales, we see slow growth of the entanglement, which may arise from dephasing mechanisms in the localized system or long-range interactions mediated by the central degree of freedom. Similar signs of localization are shown to appear as well with unscaled system-bath coupling.

1-dimensional spin chains↗