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At least 1,315 records · Page 73
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Estimating the probability of failure when testing reveals no failures

Formulas for estimating the probability of failure when testing reveals no errors are introduced. These formulas incorporate random testing results, information about the input distribution, and prior assumptions about the probability of failure of the software. The formulas are not restricted to equally likely input distributions, and the probability of failure estimate can be adjusted when assumptions about the input distribution change. The formulas are based on a discrete sample space statistical model of software and include Bayesian prior assumptions. Reusable software and software in life-critical applications are particularly appropriate candidates for this type of analysis.

Miller, Keith W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Traditional Registrational Trial End Points: Development and Application of a Desirability of Outcome Ranking End Point for Complicated Urinary Tract Infection Clinical Trials

Abstract Background Traditional end points used in registrational randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) often do not allow for complete interpretation of the full range of potential clinical outcomes. Desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) is an approach to the design and analysis of clinical trials that incorporates benefits and risks of novel treatment strategies and provides a global assessment of patient experience. Methods Through a multidisciplinary committee of experts in infectious diseases, clinical trial design, drug regulation, and patient experience, we developed a DOOR end point for infectious disease syndromes and demonstrated how this could be applied to 3 registrational drug trials (ZEUS, APEKS-cUTI, and DORI-05) for complicated urinary tract infections (cUTIs). ZEUS compared fosfomycin to piperacillin/tazobactam, APEKS-cUTI compared cefiderocol to imipenem, and DORI-05 compared doripenem to levofloxacin. Using DOOR, we estimated the probability of a more desirable outcome with each investigational antibacterial drug. Results In each RCT, the DOOR distribution was similar and the probability that a patient in the investigational arm would have a more desirable outcome than a patient in the control arm had a 95% confidence interval containing 50%, indicating no significant difference between treatment arms. DOOR facilitated improved understanding of potential trade-offs between clinical efficacy and safety. Partial credit and subgroup analyses also highlight unique attributes of DOOR. Conclusions DOOR can effectively be used in registrational cUTI trials. The DOOR end point presented here can be adapted for other infectious disease syndromes and prospectively incorporated into future clinical trials.

Immunology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reliability comparisons between additively manufactured and conventional SiC–Si ceramic composites

Abstract An additively manufactured reaction‐bonded silicon carbide ceramic composite is fabricated using a bimodal powder feedstock and the binder‐jetting printing technique. On fabricating, the ceramic is investigated to report its composition, mechanical, and thermal properties at room temperature and high temperatures (up to 750). The ceramic has a density of 2.76 g/cc, and shows a hardness of 21.74 GPa, and a flexure strength of 207.5 MPa at room temperature. The mechanical property of flexure strength is used to estimate its failure probability under applied stress, using a Weibull distribution. The mechanical properties and failure probabilities are compared with those of conventionally fabricated reaction‐bonded silicon carbide ceramics reported in the literature. These ceramics were fabricated using methods such as slip‐casting, compacting, and tape‐casting. The comparison is used to elucidate the advantages and areas of improvement of the present additive manufacturing technique for reaction‐bonded ceramics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1974

Some qualitative remarks on the variation of the probability of error

The qualitative behavior of the probability of misclassifying observations from two normally distributed populations as the classification regions are varied in a prescribed way is described in order to provide a preliminary generalization of the results obtained by Walton for the case of normally distributed observations with varying a priori probabilities.

Walker, H. F.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The asymptotic distribution of maxima in bivariate samples

The joint distribution (as n tends to infinity) of the maxima of a sample of n independent observations of a bivariate random variable (X,Y) is studied. A method is developed for deriving the asymptotic distribution of the maxima, assuming that X and Y possess asymptotic extreme-value distributions and that the probability element dF(x,y) can be expanded in a canonical series. Applied both to the bivariate normal distribution and to the bivariate gamma and compound correlated bivariate Poisson distributions, the method shows that maxima from all these distributions are asymptotically uncorrelated.

Campbell, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Application of statistical distribution theory to launch-on-time for space construction logistic support

The ability to launch-on-time and to send payloads into space has progressed dramatically since the days of the earliest missile and space programs. Causes for delay during launch, i.e., unplanned 'holds', are attributable to several sources: weather, range activities, vehicle conditions, human performance, etc. Recent developments in space program, particularly the need for highly reliable logistic support of space construction and the subsequent planned operation of space stations, large unmanned space structures, lunar and Mars bases, and the necessity of providing 'guaranteed' commercial launches have placed increased emphasis on understanding and mastering every aspect of launch vehicle operations. The Center of Space Construction has acquired historical launch vehicle data and is applying these data to the analysis of space launch vehicle logistic support of space construction. This analysis will include development of a better understanding of launch-on-time capability and simulation of required support systems for vehicle assembly and launch which are necessary to support national space program construction schedules. In this paper, the author presents actual launch data on unscheduled 'hold' distributions of various launch vehicles. The data have been supplied by industrial associate companies of the Center for Space Construction. The paper seeks to determine suitable probability models which describe these historical data and that can be used for several purposes such as: inputs to broader simulations of launch vehicle logistic space construction support processes and the determination of which launch operations sources cause the majority of the unscheduled 'holds', and hence to suggest changes which might improve launch-on-time. In particular, the paper investigates the ability of a compound distribution probability model to fit actual data, versus alternative models, and recommends the most productive avenues for future statistical work.

Morgenthaler, George W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Resilience assessment and planning in power distribution systems: Past and future considerations

High impact low probability (HILP) events such as hurricanes, heat waves, and floods have instigated widespread power outages and blackouts around the globe in the past decade. With the increasing challenges concerning the threats to the power distribution systems and the growing need to mitigate the impacts of the HILP events, resilience has become a crucial requirement for the power grid infrastructures. Numerous efforts have been made to define, measure, and characterize the resilience of power distribution systems. This study thoroughly reviews the state-of-the-art methods on the existing resilience evaluation framework and metrics. Here, the desirable characteristics of resilience metrics are highlighted, and the challenges associated with formulating, developing, and calculating such metrics are discussed. Next, we detail the state-of-the-art literature on planning solutions to ensure distribution system resilience. This paper aims to extract a deep insight into this challenging and critical research area and envision future opportunities that can guide the power distribution system operators/planners to formulate more effective mitigation strategies to enhance the resilience of power distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1996

Fossil preservation and the stratigraphic ranges of taxa

The incompleteness of the fossil record hinders the inference of evolutionary rates and patterns. Here, we derive relationships among true taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and observed taxonomic ranges. We use these relationships to estimate original distributions of taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and completeness (proportion of taxa preserved), given only the observed ranges. No data on occurrences within the ranges of taxa are required. When preservation is random and the original distribution of durations is exponential, the inference of durations, preservability, and completeness is exact. However, reasonable approximations are possible given non-exponential duration distributions and temporal and taxonomic variation in preservability. Thus, the approaches we describe have great potential in studies of taphonomy, evolutionary rates and patterns, and genealogy. Analyses of Upper Cambrian-Lower Ordovician trilobite species, Paleozoic crinoid genera, Jurassic bivalve species, and Cenozoic mammal species yield the following results: (1) The preservation probability inferred from stratigraphic ranges alone agrees with that inferred from the analysis of stratigraphic gaps when data on the latter are available. (2) Whereas median durations based on simple tabulations of observed ranges are biased by stratigraphic resolution, our estimates of median duration, extinction rate, and completeness are not biased.(3) The shorter geologic ranges of mammalian species relative to those of bivalves cannot be attributed to a difference in preservation potential. However, we cannot rule out the contribution of taxonomic practice to this difference. (4) In the groups studied, completeness (proportion of species [trilobites, bivalves, mammals] or genera [crinoids] preserved) ranges from 60% to 90%. The higher estimates of completeness at smaller geographic scales support previous suggestions that the incompleteness of the fossil record reflects loss of fossiliferous rock more than failure of species to enter the fossil record in the first place.

NASA Program Exobiology↗
DOE OSTI2025

New Measurements of the Deuteron-to-Proton 𝐹 2 Structure-Function Ratio

Nucleon structure functions, as measured in lepton-nucleon scattering, have historically provided a critical observable in the study of partonic dynamics within the nucleon. However, at very large parton momenta, it is both experimentally and theoretically challenging to extract parton distributions due to the probable onset of nonperturbative contributions and the unavailability of high-precision data at critical kinematics. Extraction of the neutron structure and the d quark distribution have been further challenging because of the necessity of applying nuclear corrections when utilizing scattering data from a deuteron target to extract the free neutron structure. However, a program of experiments has been carried out recently at the energy-upgraded Jefferson Lab electron accelerator aimed at significantly reducing the nuclear correction uncertainties on the d quark distribution function at large partonic momentum. This allows leveraging the vast body of deuterium data covering a large kinematic range to be utilized for d quark parton distribution function extraction. In this Letter, we present new data from experiment E12-10-002, carried out in Jefferson Lab Experimental Hall C, on the deuteron to proton cross section ratio at large Bjorken 𝑥. These results significantly improve the precision of existing data and provide a first look at the expected impact on quark distributions extracted from parton distribution function fits.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1987

Isotropic probability measures in infinite dimensional spaces: Inverse problems/prior information/stochastic inversion

Let R be the real numbers, R(n) the linear space of all real n-tuples, and R(infinity) the linear space of all infinite real sequences x = (x sub 1, x sub 2,...). Let P sub n :R(infinity) approaches R(n) be the projection operator with P sub n (x) = (x sub 1,...,x sub n). Let p(infinity) be a probability measure on the smallest sigma-ring of subsets of R(infinity) which includes all of the cylinder sets P sub n(-1) (B sub n), where B sub n is an arbitrary Borel subset of R(n). Let p sub n be the marginal distribution of p(infinity) on R(n), so p sub n(B sub n) = p(infinity)(P sub n to the -1(B sub n)) for each B sub n. A measure on R(n) is isotropic if it is invariant under all orthogonal transformations of R(n). All members of the set of all isotropic probability distributions on R(n) are described. The result calls into question both stochastic inversion and Bayesian inference, as currently used in many geophysical inverse problems.

Backus, George↗
NASA NTRS1987

Isotropic probability measures in infinite-dimensional spaces

Let R be the real numbers, R(n) the linear space of all real n-tuples, and R(infinity) the linear space of all infinite real sequences x = (x sub 1, x sub 2,...). Let P sub in :R(infinity) approaches R(n) be the projection operator with P sub n (x) = (x sub 1,...,x sub n). Let p(infinity) be a probability measure on the smallest sigma-ring of subsets of R(infinity) which includes all of the cylinder sets P sub n(-1) (B sub n), where B sub n is an arbitrary Borel subset of R(n). Let p sub n be the marginal distribution of p(infinity) on R(n), so p sub n(B sub n) = p(infinity) (P sub n to the -1 (B sub n)) for each B sub n. A measure on R(n) is isotropic if it is invariant under all orthogonal transformations of R(n). All members of the set of all isotropic probability distributions on R(n) are described. The result calls into question both stochastic inversion and Bayesian inference, as currently used in many geophysical inverse problems.

Backus, George↗
NASA NTRS1995

The underlying magnetic field direction in Ulysses observations of the southern polar heliosphere

Between May 1993 and January 1995, the Ulysses spacecraft has probed the southern polar heliosphere at latitudes greater than 30 deg S, reaching a maximum latitude of 80.2 deg S in September 1994. Using hourly averages of the data obtained by the magnetometer experiment on Ulysses we have studied the underlying direction of the magnetic field threading this region of the heliosphere, away from the influence of the magnetic sector structure which complicates similar analyses in the ecliptic plane. We have constructed histograms of the measured magnetic field direction using the simple Parker spiral model field direction as a reference. We find that throughout this region the meridional angle between the field vector and the Parker model direction has a distribution which is symmetric and has a most probable value consistent with the model. At latitudes below about 60 deg S the azimuthal angle distribution also has a most probable value consistent with the model but this distribution is highly asymmetric with a greater number of observations of field lines less tightly wound than the expected spiral direction. At latitudes greater than 60 deg S the most probable value of the azimuthal angle is found to have become nearly 30 more tightly wound than the expected direction, but due to the asymmetric distribution still with a greater number of observations less tightly wound than expected. We consider possible causes of both the asymmetry in the distributions and the shift in the most probable value at the highest latitudes, one of which may be the presence of large amplitude, long period Alfven waves in the magnetic field originating from the Sun's southern polar coronal hole.

Forsyth, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Error probabilities in optical PPM receivers with Gaussian mixture densities

A Gaussian mixture density arises when a discrete variable (e.g., a photodetector count variable) is added to a continuous Gaussian variable (e.g., thermal noise). Making use of some properties of photomultiplier Gaussian mixture distributions, some approximate error probability formulas can be derived. These appear as averages of M-ary orthogonal Gaussian error probabilities. The use of a pure Gaussian assumption is considered, and when properly defined, appears as an accurate upper bound to performance.

Gagliardi, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1935

Large-Scale Boundary-Layer Control Tests on Two Wings in the NACA 20-Foot Wind Tunnel, Special Report

Tests were made in the N.A.C.A. 20-foot wind tunnel on: (1) a wing, of 6.5-foot span, 5.5-foot chord, and 30 percent maximum thickness, fitted with large end plates and (2) a 16-foot span 2.67-foot chord wing of 15 percent maximum thickness to determine the increase in lift obtainable by removing the boundary layer and the power required for the blower. The results of the tests on the stub wing appeared more favorable than previous small-scale tests and indicated that: (1) the suction method was considerably superior to the pressure method, (2) single slots were more effective than multiple slots (where the same pressure was applied to all slots), the slot efficiency increased rapidly for increasing slot widths up to 2 percent of the wing chord and remained practically constant for all larger widths tested, (3) suction pressure and power requirements were quite low (a computation for a light airplane showed that a lift coefficient of 3.0 could be obtained with a suction as low as 2.3 times the dynamic pressure and a power expenditure less than 3 percent of the rated engine power), and (4) the volume of air required to be drawn off was quite high (approximately 0.5 cubic feet per second per unit wing area for an airplane landing at 40 miles per hour with a lift coefficient of 3,0), indicating that considerable duct area must be provided in order to prevent flow losses inside the wing and insure uniform distribution of suction along the span. The results from the tests of the large-span wing were less favorable than those on the stub wing. The reasons for this were, probably: (1) the uneven distribution of suction along the span, (2) the flow losses inside the wing, (3) the small radius of curvature of the leading edge of the wing section, and (4) the low Reynolds Number of these tests, which was about one half that of the stub wing. The results showed a large increase in the maximum lift coefficient with an increase in Reynolds Number in the range of the tests. The results of drag tests showed that the profile drag of the wing was reduced and the L/D ratio was increased throughout the range of lift coefficients corresponding to take-off and climb but that the minimum drag was increased. The slot arrangement that is best for low drag is not the same, however, as that for maximum lift.

Freeman, Hugh B.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Optimal source codes for geometrically distributed integer alphabets

An approach is shown for using the Huffman algorithm indirectly to prove the optimality of a code for an infinite alphabet if an estimate concerning the nature of the code can be made. Attention is given to nonnegative integers with a geometric probability assignment. The particular distribution considered arises in run-length coding and in encoding protocol information in data networks. Questions of redundancy of the optimal code are also investigated.

Gallager, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The latitudinal distribution of a debris mantle on the Martian surface

A relatively young mantling deposit of debris surrounds both Martian polar regions and extends toward the equator. This mantle apparently has been derived by wind erosion of sedimentary deposits in the polar regions, a process that is probably continuing now. The distribution of the mantle is not correlated with any particular terrain type for it has masked the small crater populations on young and old terrains alike. The paucity of small fresh craters at high latitudes can be directly attributed to the presence of this debris blanket. It is clear that extreme care should be exercised in using the populations of small craters to establish the chronology of the evolution of geologic provinces on Mars.

Soderblom, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Integrated Medical Model: Statistical Forecasting of Risks to Crew Health and Mission Success

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) helps capture and use organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. The IMM uses this domain knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast crew health and mission success risks. The IMM is most helpful in comparing the risk of two or more mission profiles, not as a tool for predicting absolute risk. The process of building the IMM adheres to Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8705.5, and uses current evidence-based information to establish a defensible position for making decisions that help ensure crew health and mission success. The IMM quantitatively describes the following input parameters: 1) medical conditions and likelihood, 2) mission duration, 3) vehicle environment, 4) crew attributes (e.g. age, sex), 5) crew activities (e.g. EVA's, Lunar excursions), 6) diagnosis and treatment protocols (e.g. medical equipment, consumables pharmaceuticals), and 7) Crew Medical Officer (CMO) training effectiveness. It is worth reiterating that the IMM uses the data sets above as inputs. Many other risk management efforts stop at determining only likelihood. The IMM is unique in that it models not only likelihood, but risk mitigations, as well as subsequent clinical outcomes based on those mitigations. Once the mathematical relationships among the above parameters are established, the IMM uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique (a random sampling of the inputs as described by their statistical distribution) to determine the probable outcomes. Because the IMM is a stochastic model (i.e. the input parameters are represented by various statistical distributions depending on the data type), when the mission is simulated 10-50,000 times with a given set of medical capabilities (risk mitigations), a prediction of the most probable outcomes can be generated. For each mission, the IMM tracks which conditions occurred and decrements the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat these medical conditions. If supplies are depleted, then the medical condition goes untreated, and crew and mission risk increase. The IMM currently models approximately 30 medical conditions. By the end of FY2008, the IMM will be modeling over 100 medical conditions, approximately 60 of which have been recorded to have occurred during short and long space missions.

Fitts, M. A.↗