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DOE OSTI2025

Regional-scale soil carbon predictions can be enhanced by transferring global-scale soil–environment relationships

Accurate modelling and mapping soil organic carbon are crucial for supporting soil health restoration and climate change mitigation at both regional and global scales. However, regional soil predictions often suffer from data scarcity and high prediction uncertainty. Utilizing a pre-trained global-to-regional soil carbon predictive model can be a potential solution to address this challenge. Despite its promise, how to construct and apply the global-scale model to enhance regional-scale soil carbon mapping remains largely unexplored. Here, we propose the Global Soil Carbon Pre-trained Model (GSoilCPM), a deep-learning-based domain adaptative model, to enhance regional-scale soil carbon predictions. Based on large amount of environmental covariate data and 106,167 soil samples across the globe, we verify our hypothesis of the effectiveness of this 'global-to-regional' modelling strategy. The pre-trained model can be then transferred and fine-tuned to bridge the regional- and global-scale soil–environment relationships. We applied and validated this modelling strategy in four regional-scale study areas, three in the Northern Hemisphere and one in the Southern Hemisphere, each with distinct environmental background. Compared to traditional modelling approaches as a baseline, four case studies all demonstrated significant improvement in prediction accuracy across diverse environments and varying data availabilities. The average percentage improvement across all regions is 10.93% (absolute values decreased by 1.20 g kg−1 averagely) in MAE and 29.04% (absolute values increased by 0.10 averagely) in CCC. The applicability and future horizons of using GSoilCPM were further discussed. We further reveal that regions with fewer soil samples or lower baseline accuracy benefit more from the pre-trained global model. Our findings highlight the advantages of leveraging the generalized knowledge from global models to enhance specifically localized soil modelling, positioning a potential paradigm shift in digital soil mapping, and far-reaching implications for soil monitoring and land management.

Deep learning↗

DOE OSTI2026

Self-supervised and multi-fidelity learning for extended predictive soil spectroscopy

Infrared spectroscopy is a cost-effective, non-destructive, and environmentally benign technology that is increasingly recognized as an important solution for meeting the global demand for soil data. While both near-infrared (NIR) and mid-infrared (MIR) diffuse reflectance spectroscopy enable rapid estimation of soil properties, they present a significant trade-off: NIR offers superior scalability and lower operational costs, whereas MIR provides higher analytical fidelity by capturing fundamental molecular vibrations. In this study, we propose a self-supervised, multi-fidelity learning framework designed to bridge this gap. Our approach leverages large-scale MIR spectral libraries to learn a compact, transferable latent representation, into which NIR spectra are subsequently aligned for downstream prediction. The workflow consists of pretraining a latent model on a large MIR library, adapting the representation using a smaller paired NIR–MIR dataset, and evaluating generalization on an independent external test set. Across a range of chemical and physical soil properties, we found that MIR-derived embeddings improved prediction accuracy relative to baseline models that used raw MIR inputs. Predictions derived from the spectrum conversion (NIR to MIR) task did not match the performance of the original MIR spectra but were similar or superior to predictive performance of NIR-only models, suggesting the unified spectral latent space can effectively leverage the larger and more diverse MIR dataset for prediction of soil properties not well represented in current NIR libraries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Regression-based reduced-order models to predict transient thermal output for enhanced geothermal systems

Reduced-order modeling is a promising approach, as many phenomena can be described by a few parameters/mechanisms. An advantage and attractive aspect of a reduced-order model is that it is computational inexpensive to evaluate when compared to running a high-fidelity numerical simulation. A reduced-order model takes couple of seconds to run on a laptop while a high-fidelity simulation may take couple of hours to run on a high-performance computing cluster. The goal of this paper is to assess the utility of regression-based reduced-order models (ROMs) developed from high-fidelity numerical simulations for predicting transient thermal power output for an enhanced geothermal reservoir while explicitly accounting for uncertainties in the subsurface system and site-specific details. Numerical simulations are performed based on equally spaced values in the specified range of model parameters. Key sensitive parameters are then identified from these simulations, which are fracture zone permeability, well/skin factor, bottom hole pressure, and injection flow rate. We found the fracture zone permeability to be the most sensitive parameter. The fracture zone permeability along with time, are used to build regression-based ROMs for the thermal power output. The ROMs are trained and validated using detailed physics-based numerical simulations. Finally, predictions from the ROMs are then compared with field data. We propose three different ROMs with different levels of model parsimony, each describing key and essential features of the power production curves. The coefficients in the proposed regression-based ROMs are developed by minimizing a non-linear least-squares misfit function using the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm. The misfit function is based on the difference between numerical simulation data and reduced-order model. ROM-1 is constructed based on polynomials up to fourth order. ROM-1 is able to accurately reproduce the power output of numerical simulations for low values of permeabilities and certain features of the field-scale data. ROM-2 is a model with more analytical functions consisting of polynomials up to order eight, exponential functions and smooth approximations of Heaviside functions, and accurately describes the field-data. At higher permeabilities, ROM-2 reproduces numerical results better than ROM-1, however, there is a considerable deviation from numerical results at low fracture zone permeabilities. ROM-3 consists of polynomials up to order ten, and is developed by taking the best aspects of ROM-1 and ROM-2. ROM-1 is relatively parsimonious than ROM-2 and ROM-3, while ROM-2 overfits the data. ROM-3 on the other hand, provides a middle ground for model parsimony. Based on R 2 -values for training, validation, and prediction data sets we found that ROM-3 is better model than ROM-2 and ROM-1. For predicting thermal drawdown in EGS applications, where high fracture zone permeabilities (typically greater than 10 –15 m 2 ) are desired, ROM-2 and ROM-3 outperform ROM-1. As per computational time, all the ROMs are 10 4 times faster when compared to running a high-fidelity numerical simulation. In conclusion, this makes the proposed regression-based ROMs attractive for real-time EGS applications because they are fast and provide reasonably good predictions for thermal power output.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient data-driven models for prediction and optimization of geothermal power plant operations

Increasing the capacity of geothermal energy as a renewable resource calls for development and deployment of efficient control and optimization technologies for geothermal power plants. A data-driven prediction and optimization model is presented as a cost-effective and efficient alternative to physics-based approach. The model predicts power output and operational cost by propagating the influence of control and disturbance variables within an artificial neural network (ANN). Numerical experiments with simulated and field data from a real geothermal power plant are first used to demonstrate the prediction performance of the ANN model. The model is then adopted to maximize the net predicted power production by automatically adjusting the working fluid circulation rate. The optimization performance of the model in evaluated using a thermodynamic flowsheet simulation model. The workflow is applied to model and control the effect of ambient temperature on an air-cooled binary cycle power plant, which is complex and costly to perform using a physics-based predictive model. As a result, the performance of the method is demonstrated by applying it to both simulated and field datasets from a binary cycle geothermal power plant.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A machine-learning-aided data recovery approach for predicting multi-material thermal behaviors in advanced test reactor capsules

Instrumented experiments conducted at test reactors are essential to the deployment of new advanced reactor systems. Designing new experiments and generating data on specific reactor conditions require significant investments in terms of both time and cost. Finite element analysis software can be used to create high-fidelity models of experiment environments in order to support the actual experiments, but computation time remains a concern in terms of applying outcomes to real-time usage of data (e.g., a digital twin [DT]). Here, the present research proposes a machine-learning (ML) aided approach to making temperature and displacement predictions based on the thickness of the outer gas gap on the experimental capsule used for in-pile demonstration of a novel new thermal conductivity probe in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). This capsule consisted of U10Zr fuel, a rodlet, sodium, and inner and outer capsules. Gas gaps existed between the fuel and the rodlet, and between the inner and the outer capsule. The learning data pertained to an experimental capsule's radial distributions of temperature and displacement, as obtained based on Abaqus and the physical features. For the first step of ML sequence, the temperature was predicted using three positional parameters. Next, the displacement was predicted using seven additional parameters. Each physical feature was normalized in order to be both nondimensional and standardized. The temperature and displacement predictions showed good agreement with the simulation results in all cases involving interpolation and extrapolation. Furthermore, data similarity enhancement increased the similarity between the training and the target data, thereby increasing the predictive accuracy of the ML models. In certain extrapolation cases involving limited original ML model accuracy, data similarity enhancement and data recovery was able to somewhat improve this accuracy.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting nutrition and environmental factors associated with female reproductive disorders using a knowledge graph and random forests

Female reproductive disorders (FRDs) are common health conditions that may present with significant symptoms. Diet and environment are potential areas for FRD interventions. We utilized a knowledge graph (KG) method to predict factors associated with common FRDs (for example, endometriosis, ovarian cyst, and uterine fibroids). We harmonized survey data from the Personalized Environment and Genes Study (PEGS) on internal and external environmental exposures and health conditions with biomedical ontology content. We merged the harmonized data and ontologies with supplemental nutrient and agricultural chemical data to create a KG. We analyzed the KG by embedding edges and applying a random forest for edge prediction to identify variables potentially associated with FRDs. We also conducted logistic regression analysis for comparison. Across 9765 PEGS respondents, the KG analysis resulted in 8535 significant or suggestive predicted links between FRDs and chemicals, phenotypes, and diseases. Amongst these links, 32 were exact matches when compared with the logistic regression results, including comorbidities, medications, foods, and occupational exposures. Mechanistic underpinnings of predicted links documented in the literature may support some of our findings. Our KG methods are useful for predicting possible associations in large, survey-based datasets with added information on directionality and magnitude of effect from logistic regression. These results should not be construed as causal but can support hypothesis generation. This investigation enabled the generation of hypotheses on a variety of potential links between FRDs and exposures. Future investigations should prospectively evaluate the variables hypothesized to impact FRDs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Predicting Radiation Pneumonitis After Chemoradiation Therapy for Lung Cancer: An International Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis

Background: Radiation pneumonitis is a dose-limiting toxicity for patients undergoing concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT) for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We performed an individual patient data meta-analysis to determine factors predictive of clinically significant pneumonitis. Methods and Materials: After a systematic review of the literature, data were obtained on 836 patients who underwent CCRT in Europe, North America, and Asia. Patients were randomly divided into training and validation sets (two-thirds vs one-third of patients). Factors predictive of symptomatic pneumonitis (grade {>=}2 by 1 of several scoring systems) or fatal pneumonitis were evaluated using logistic regression. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was used to define risk groups. Results: The median radiation therapy dose was 60 Gy, and the median follow-up time was 2.3 years. Most patients received concurrent cisplatin/etoposide (38%) or carboplatin/paclitaxel (26%). The overall rate of symptomatic pneumonitis was 29.8% (n=249), with fatal pneumonitis in 1.9% (n=16). In the training set, factors predictive of symptomatic pneumonitis were lung volume receiving {>=}20 Gy (V{sub 20}) (odds ratio [OR] 1.03 per 1% increase, P=.008), and carboplatin/paclitaxel chemotherapy (OR 3.33, P<.001), with a trend for age (OR 1.24 per decade, P=.09); the model remained predictive in the validation set with good discrimination in both datasets (c-statistic >0.65). On RPA, the highest risk of pneumonitis (>50%) was in patients >65 years of age receiving carboplatin/paclitaxel. Predictors of fatal pneumonitis were daily dose >2 Gy, V{sub 20}, and lower-lobe tumor location. Conclusions: Several treatment-related risk factors predict the development of symptomatic pneumonitis, and elderly patients who undergo CCRT with carboplatin-paclitaxel chemotherapy are at highest risk. Fatal pneumonitis, although uncommon, is related to dosimetric factors and tumor location.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2013

Predictive Models for Regional Hepatic Function Based on 99mTc-IDA SPECT and Local Radiation Dose for Physiologic Adaptive Radiation Therapy

Purpose: High-dose radiation therapy (RT) for intrahepatic cancer is limited by the development of liver injury. This study investigated whether regional hepatic function assessed before and during the course of RT using 99mTc-labeled iminodiacetic acid (IDA) single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) could predict regional liver function reserve after RT. Methods and Materials: Fourteen patients treated with RT for intrahepatic cancers underwent dynamic 99mTc-IDA SPECT scans before RT, during, and 1 month after completion of RT. Indocyanine green (ICG) tests, a measure of overall liver function, were performed within 1 day of each scan. Three-dimensional volumetric hepatic extraction fraction (HEF) images of the liver were estimated by deconvolution analysis. After coregistration of the CT/SPECT and the treatment planning CT, HEF dose–response functions during and after RT were generated. The volumetric mean of the HEFs in the whole liver was correlated with ICG clearance time. Three models, dose, priori, and adaptive models, were developed using multivariate linear regression to assess whether the regional HEFs measured before and during RT helped predict regional hepatic function after RT. Results: The mean of the volumetric liver HEFs was significantly correlated with ICG clearance half-life time (r=−0.80, P<.0001), for all time points. Linear correlations between local doses and regional HEFs 1 month after RT were significant in 12 patients. In the priori model, regional HEF after RT was predicted by the planned dose and regional HEF assessed before RT (R=0.71, P<.0001). In the adaptive model, regional HEF after RT was predicted by regional HEF reassessed during RT and the remaining planned local dose (R=0.83, P<.0001). Conclusions: 99mTc-IDA SPECT obtained during RT could be used to assess regional hepatic function and helped predict post-RT regional liver function reserve. This could support individualized adaptive radiation treatment strategies to maximize tumor control and minimize the risk of liver damage.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Nomograms for Prediction of Outcome With or Without Adjuvant Radiation Therapy for Patients With Endometrial Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of PORTEC-1 and PORTEC-2 Trials

Background: Postoperative radiation therapy for stage I endometrial cancer improves locoregional control but is without survival benefit. To facilitate treatment decision support for individual patients, accurate statistical models to predict locoregional relapse (LRR), distant relapse (DR), overall survival (OS), and disease-free survival (DFS) are required. Methods and Materials: Clinical trial data from the randomized Post Operative Radiation Therapy for Endometrial Cancer (PORTEC-1; N=714 patients) and PORTEC-2 (N=427 patients) trials and registered group (grade 3 and deep invasion, n=99) were pooled for analysis (N=1240). For most patients (86%) pathology review data were available; otherwise original pathology data were used. Trial variables which were clinically relevant and eligible according to data constraints were age, stage, given treatment (pelvic external beam radiation therapy (EBRT), vaginal brachytherapy (VBT), or no adjuvant treatment, FIGO histological grade, depth of invasion, and lymph-vascular invasion (LVSI). Multivariate analyses were based on Cox proportional hazards regression model. Predictors were selected based on a backward elimination scheme. Model results were expressed by the c-index (0.5-1.0; random to perfect prediction). Two validation sets (n=244 and 291 patients) were used. Results: Accuracy of the developed models was good, with training accuracies between 0.71 and 0.78. The nomograms validated well for DR (0.73), DFS (0.69), and OS (0.70), but validation was only fair for LRR (0.59). Ranking of variables as to their predictive power showed that age, tumor grade, and LVSI were highly predictive for all outcomes, and given treatment for LRR and DFS. The nomograms were able to significantly distinguish low- from high-probability patients for these outcomes. Conclusions: The nomograms are internally validated and able to accurately predict long-term outcome for endometrial cancer patients with observation, pelvic EBRT, or VBT after surgery. These models facilitate decision support in daily clinical practice and can be used for patient counseling and shared decision making, selecting patients who benefit most from adjuvant treatment, and generating new hypotheses.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2016

Validation of the Web-Based IBTR! 2.0 Nomogram to Predict for Ipsilateral Breast Tumor Recurrence After Breast-Conserving Therapy

Purpose: To evaluate the IBTR! 2.0 nomogram, which predicts 10-year ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) after breast-conserving therapy with and without radiation therapy for breast cancer, by using a large, external, and independent cancer center database. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively identified 1898 breast cancer cases, treated with breast-conserving therapy and radiation therapy at the University Hospital Leuven from 2000 to 2007, with requisite data for the nomogram variables. Clinicopathologic factors were assessed. Two definitions of IBTR were considered where simultaneous regional or distant recurrence were either censored (conform IBTR! 2.0) or included as event. Validity of the prediction algorithm was tested in terms of discrimination and calibration. Discrimination was assessed by the concordance probability estimate and Harrell's concordance index. The mean predicted and observed 10-year estimates were compared for the entire cohort and for 4 risk groups predefined by nomogram-predicted IBTR risks, and a calibration plot was drawn. Results: Median follow-up was 10.9 years. The 10-year IBTR rates were 1.3% and 2.1%, according to the 2 definitions of IBTR. The validation cohort differed from the development cohort with respect to the administration of hormonal therapy, surgical section margins, lymphovascular invasion, and tumor size. In univariable analysis, younger age (P=.002) and a positive nodal status (P=.048) were significantly associated with IBTR, with a trend for the omission of hormonal therapy (P=.061). The concordance probability estimate and concordance index varied between 0.57 and 0.67 for the 2 definitions of IBTR. In all 4 risk groups the model overestimated the IBTR risk. In particular, between the lowest-risk groups a limited differentiation was suggested by the calibration plot. Conclusions: The IBTR! 2.0 predictive model for IBTR in breast cancer patients shows substandard discriminative ability, with an overestimation of the risk in all subgroups.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2016

{sup 18}F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography Can Quantify and Predict Esophageal Injury During Radiation Therapy

Purpose: We sought to investigate the ability of mid-treatment {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET) studies to objectively and spatially quantify esophageal injury in vivo from radiation therapy for non-small cell lung cancer. Methods and Materials: This retrospective study was approved by the local institutional review board, with written informed consent obtained before enrollment. We normalized {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose PET uptake to each patient's low-irradiated region (<5 Gy) of the esophagus, as a radiation response measure. Spatially localized metrics of normalized uptake (normalized standard uptake value [nSUV]) were derived for 79 patients undergoing concurrent chemoradiation therapy for non-small cell lung cancer. We used nSUV metrics to classify esophagitis grade at the time of the PET study, as well as maximum severity by treatment completion, according to National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, using multivariate least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression and repeated 3-fold cross validation (training, validation, and test folds). This 3-fold cross-validation LASSO model procedure was used to predict toxicity progression from 43 asymptomatic patients during the PET study. Dose-volume metrics were also tested in both the multivariate classification and the symptom progression prediction analyses. Classification performance was quantified with the area under the curve (AUC) from receiver operating characteristic analysis on the test set from the 3-fold analyses. Results: Statistical analysis showed increasing nSUV is related to esophagitis severity. Axial-averaged maximum nSUV for 1 esophageal slice and esophageal length with at least 40% of axial-averaged nSUV both had AUCs of 0.85 for classifying grade 2 or higher esophagitis at the time of the PET study and AUCs of 0.91 and 0.92, respectively, for maximum grade 2 or higher by treatment completion. Symptom progression was predicted with an AUC of 0.75. Dose metrics performed poorly at classifying esophagitis (AUC of 0.52, grade 2 or higher mid treatment) or predicting symptom progression (AUC of 0.67). Conclusions: Normalized uptake can objectively, locally, and noninvasively quantify esophagitis during radiation therapy and predict eventual symptoms from asymptomatic patients. Normalized uptake may provide patient-specific dose-response information not discernible from dose.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Best practices for predictions of radionuclide activity concentrations and total absorbed dose rates to freshwater organisms exposed to uranium mining/milling

Predictions of radionuclide dose rates to freshwater organisms can be used to evaluate the radiological environmental impacts of releases from uranium mining and milling projects. These predictions help inform decisions on the implementation of mitigation measures. The objective of this study was to identify how dose rate modelling could be improved to reduce uncertainty in predictions to non-human biota. For this purpose, we modelled the activity concentrations of 210 Pb, 210 Po, 226 Ra, 230 Th, and 238 U downstream of uranium mines and mills in northern Saskatchewan, Canada, together with associated weighted absorbed dose rates for a freshwater food chain using measured activity concentrations in water and sediments. Differences in predictions of radionuclide activity concentrations occurred mainly from the different default partition coefficient and concentration ratio values from one model to another and including all or only some 238 U decay daughters in the dose rate assessments. Consequently, we recommend a standardized best-practice approach to calculate weighted absorbed dose rates to freshwater biota whether a facility is at the planning, operating or decommissioned stage. At the initial planning stage, the best-practice approach recommend using conservative site-specific baseline activity concentrations in water, sediments and organisms and predict conservative incremental activity concentrations in these media by selecting concentration ratios based on species similarity and similar water quality conditions to reduce the uncertainty in dose rate calculations. At the operating and decommissioned stages, the best-practice approach recommends relying on measured activity concentrations in water, sediment, fish tissue and wholebody of small organisms to further reduce uncertainty in dose rate estimates. This approach would allow for more realistic but still conservative dose assessments when evaluating impacts from uranium mining projects and making decision on adequate controls of releases.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of four learning-based methods for predicting groundwater redox status

Knowing the location where groundwater denitrification occurs, or by proxy the groundwater redox status (oxic, mixed, and anoxic), is valuable information for assessing and managing potential agricultural land-use impacts on freshwater quality. We compare the efficacy of supervised (Linear Discriminant Analysis LDA; Boosted Regression Trees, BRT; and Random Forest, RF) and unsupervised (Modified Self-Organizing Map, MSOM) learning-based methods to predict groundwater redox status in the agriculturally dominated Tasman, Waikato, and Wellington regions of New Zealand. Thresholds applied to regional groundwater-quality samples provide redox status variables and learn heuristics constrained by these variables and applied to spatial factors (climate, elevation, geologic, hydrology soils, and well depth) identify optimal sets of regional predictor variables. A split-sample approach is used to train and test the learning methods ability to predict redox status using the optimal predictor variables. Overall, the supervised methods demonstrate a prediction bias toward oxic conditions and inability to perform statistically well when using independent regional data; for example, consider kappa statistics for BRT (Tasman: 0.42, Waikato: 0.38, Wellington: 0.17), RF (Tasman: 0.42, Waikato: 0.47, Wellington: 0.17 and LDA (Tasman: 0.46, Waikato: 0.32, Wellington: 0.17). By contrast, the unsupervised method performs statistically well when predicting oxic, mixed, and anoxic conditions and corresponding depths when using independent regional data; for example, consider MSOM kappa statistics for Tasman: 0.78, Waikato: 0.80, Wellington: 0.76. The unsupervised learning method provides the added benefits of being (1) able to combine predictions into 3D regional anoxic probability plots for interpreting the spatial influence of paleosols and groundwater flowpaths on redox status, and (2) readily extended to map 3D redox status across New Zealand and other countries despite data bias and sparsity.

machine learning algorithms, Random Forest, booste↗

DOE OSTI2022

BIPSPI+: Mining Type-Specific Datasets of Protein Complexes to Improve Protein Binding Site Prediction

Computational approaches for predicting protein-protein interfaces are extremely useful for understanding and modelling the quaternary structure of protein assemblies. In particular, partner-specific binding site prediction methods allow delineating the specific residues that compose the interface of protein complexes. In recent years, new machine learning and other algorithmic approaches have been proposed to solve this problem. However, little effort has been made in finding better training datasets to improve the performance of these methods. With the aim of vindicating the importance of the training set compilation procedure, in this work we present BIPSPI+, a new version of our original server trained on carefully curated datasets that outperforms our original predictor. We show how prediction performance can be improved by selecting specific datasets that better describe particular types of protein interactions and interfaces (e.g. homo/hetero). In addition, our upgraded web server offers a new set of functionalities such as the sequence-structure prediction mode, hetero- or homo-complex specialization and the guided docking tool that allows to compute 3D quaternary structure poses using the predicted interfaces. BIPSPI+ is freely available at https://bipspi.cnb.csic.es.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Prediction of shock initiation thresholds and ignition probability of polymer-bonded explosives using mesoscale simulations

The design of new materials requires establishment of macroscopic measures of material performance as functions of microstructure. Traditionally, this process has been an empirical endeavor. In this paper, an approach to computationally predict the probabilistic ignition thresholds of polymer-bonded explosives (PBXs) using mesoscale simulations is developed. The simulations explicitly account for microstructure, constituent properties, and interfacial responses and capture processes responsible for the development of hotspots and damage. The specific mechanisms tracked include viscoelasticity, viscoplasticity, fracture, post-fracture contact, frictional heating, and heat conduction. The probabilistic analysis uses sets of statistically similar microstructure samples to directly mimic relevant experiments for quantification of statistical variations of material behavior due to inherent material heterogeneities. The particular thresholds and ignition probabilities predicted are expressed in James type and Walker–Wasley type relations, leading to the establishment of explicit analytical expressions for the ignition probability as function of loading. Specifically, the ignition thresholds corresponding to any given level of ignition probability and ignition probability maps are predicted for PBX 9404 for the loading regime of U p = 200–1200 m/s where U p is the particle speed. The predicted results are in good agreement with available experimental measurements. A parametric study also shows that binder properties can significantly affect the macroscopic ignition behavior of PBXs. Finally, the capability to computationally predict the macroscopic engineering material response relations out of material microstructures and basic constituent and interfacial properties lends itself to the design of new materials as well as the analysis of existing materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Measurements and predictions of wind turbine tower shadow and fairing effects

Downwind two-bladed rotor configurations can have advantages in reducing rotor mass for wind turbines, compared with three-bladed upwind designs. However, the tower shadow adds an aerodynamic complication that can be difficult to quantify and predict. This study presents and analyzes a previously unpublished subset of data collected during an extensive wind tunnel campaign, the Unsteady Aerodynamic Experiment (UAE). At high tip speed ratios, the tower shadow is a dominating contributor to bending moment oscillations but can be mitigated by the use of a tower fairing when such a fairing is aligned with the flow. At lower tip speed ratios where the blades can undergo aerodynamic stall and hysteresis, tower shadow was only a secondary contributor to bending moments and the tower fairing did not significantly impact bending moments. The aeroelastic simulation code called FAST was used to predict the same experimental conditions. In general, simulations reasonably predicted most of the cycle-averaged aspects, but only qualitatively predicted the unsteady variations due to tower shadow. To improve simulation predictions inside the tower wake, it is suggested that future work model the unsteady wake component associated with cylinder shedding and to consider a wake model for tower fairings at various wind incidence angles.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of softening kinetics and recrystallization texture in non-isothermally annealed bulged tubes using CPFEM and CA models

A hierarchically coupled cellular automata (CA) model, crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM), and thermal finite element (FE) model is developed to predict the softening kinetics of the bulged steel tube during non-isothermal annealing. Through the developed model, the kinetics of softening mechanisms including static recovery (SRV) and static recrystallization (SRX), as well as the recrystallization texture are predicted. Later, the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kohnogorov (JMAK) model based on the predicted SRX data is developed to interpret the recrystallization behavior of the material. To perform this study, diverse experimental tests including tube hydroforming (THF), annealing, uniaxial tensile test, hardness test, as well as microstructure observations through optical microscopy and Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD) tests on steel tube are performed. The obtained experimental data are utilized to calibrate and verify the implemented CPFEM model for simulation of THF process, thermal FE model for prediction of the local temperature over annealing time, and CA algorithm for modeling of the softening kinetics and texture evolution throughout the annealing process. The study shows that the predicted deformation characteristics, softening kinetics, recrystallization texture and temperature profile during non-isothermal annealing are in good agreement with experimental data. During the annealing process, a total of four stages for the kinetics of softening mechanisms is observed: No softening; SRV only; SRV dominant; and SRX dominant. During the progress of SRX, the behavior of recrystallization is abruptly changed, confirming that two different mechanisms are controlling the kinetics of transformation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Prediction of dislocation - grain boundary interactions in FCC aluminum bicrystals using a modified continuum criterion and machine learning methods

Mechanical properties of metals such as strength and toughness are strongly correlated to complex interactions between various defects in the crystalline structure. While elementary interactions between these defects have been investigated using recent micro- and nano-characterization techniques, understanding of the detailed interaction mechanisms has hardly been obtained. To understand defect-driven plasticity at various time and length scales, it is necessary to formulate a general guideline to predict both the interaction type (transmission or reflection) and the dislocation's subsequent slip system after the interaction. Many criteria based on the geometric alignment of the defects have been developed to predict this phenomenon, but these have yet to be found to be accurate when applied to general data sets of grain boundaries (GBs). With this motivation, we conduct a systematic study using molecular dynamics (MD) models of bicrystals to analyze defect interaction process between a prismatic dislocation loop and eleven different grain boundaries of the following character: three tilt, three twist, and five mixed. Based on the MD observations, two new prediction methods are developed: the first is a new data-driven parametric score function based on the classical geometric criteria, and the second is by applying Gaussian process machine learning methods to find the probability distribution of a hidden function. In conclusion, the proposed data-driven prediction methods could pave a new way to predict the unit interaction of dislocations with various GBs, which could show much higher accuracy compared to pre-existing geometric criteria.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗