Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “power modeling and estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,315 records · Page 73
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

General-Purpose Bayesian Tensor Learning With Automatic Rank Determination and Uncertainty Quantification

A major challenge in many machine learning tasks is that the model expressive power depends on model size. Low-rank tensor methods are an efficient tool for handling the curse of dimensionality in many large-scale machine learning models. The major challenges in training a tensor learning model include how to process the high-volume data, how to determine the tensor rank automatically, and how to estimate the uncertainty of the results. While existing tensor learning focuses on a specific task, this paper proposes a generic Bayesian framework that can be employed to solve a broad class of tensor learning problems such as tensor completion, tensor regression, and tensorized neural networks. We develop a low-rank tensor prior for automatic rank determination in nonlinear problems. Our method is implemented with both stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGHMC) and Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD). We compare the automatic rank determination and uncertainty quantification of these two solvers. We demonstrate that our proposed method can determine the tensor rank automatically and can quantify the uncertainty of the obtained results. We validate our framework on tensor completion tasks and tensorized neural network training tasks.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling, Load Profile Validation, and Assessment of Solar-Rooftop Energy Potential for Low-and-Moderate-Income Communities in the Caribbean

This document presents the modeling of load profile consumption for Low-and-Moderate-Income (LMI) communities in the Caribbean Islands, as well as an assessment of the solar-rooftop energy potential. In this work, real data, together with synthetic and electricity bill data, were collected to validate and improve the load profile models. The solar-rooftop energy potential was obtained through a National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) software called the PVWatts calculator, and mathematical analysis. The analysis of rooftop solar energy potential was conducted to enable the minimum size of solar power systems to fit the energy demand in the community. The results obtained allow estimation of the capacity of the energy system for each house or an entire community.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Relationships between the Stellar, Gaseous, and Star Formation Disks in LITTLE THINGS Dwarf Irregular Galaxies: Indirect Evidence for Substantial Fractions of Dark Molecular Gas

The stellar, gaseous and young stellar disks in the LITTLE THINGS sample of nearby dwarf irregular galaxies are fitted with functions to search for correlations between the parameters. We find that the H i radial profiles are generally flatter in the center and fall faster in the outer regions than the V-band profiles, while young stars are more centrally concentrated, especially if the H i is more centrally flat. This pattern suggests that the H i is turning into molecules in the center, and the molecular clouds are forming stars and FUV. A model that assumes the molecular surface density is proportional to the total gas surface density to a power of 1.5 or 2, in analogy with the Kennicutt–Schmidt relation, reproduces the relationship between the ratio of the visible to the H i scale length and the H i Sérsic index. The molecular fraction is estimated as a function of radius for each galaxy by converting the FUV to a molecular surface density using conventional calibrations. The average molecular fraction inside 3R {sub D} is 23% ± 17%. However, the break in the stellar surface brightness profile has no unified tracer related to star formation.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1972

Ionosphere total electron measurements as extracted from satellite tracking data

The Goddard Range and Range Rate System (GRARR) determines the range of a spacecraft by measuring the group delay of a modulated wave and the range rate by measuring the Doppler phase shift of the carrier. An analytical technique is presented for obtaining corrections and equivalent total electron content along the vertical, using VHF GRARR data and a radial model of the ionosphere. The results of computation for a representative pass are given, and estimated accuracy is discussed from a statistical view point. Using VHF GRARR data and a radial model of the ionosphere. The results of computation for a representative pass are given, and estimated accuracy is discussed from a statistical view point. Using GRARR range, range rate, and angle tracking data from Explorer 41, values of total electron content on the order of 10 to the 17th to 10 to the 18th power (electrons/sq m) were obtained. These values agree with estimates of the total electron content from ionospheric profiles using f sub o F sub 2 predict data.

Murray, C. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Laser Doppler systems in atmospheric turbulence

The loss of heterodyne signal power for the Marshall Space Flight Center laser Doppler system due to the random changes in the atmospheric index of refraction is investigated. The current status in the physics of low energy laser propagation through turbulent atmosphere is presented. The analysis and approximate evaluation of the loss of the heterodyne signal power due to the atmospheric absorption, scattering, and turbulence are estimated for the conditions of the January 1973 flight tests. Theoretical and experimental signal to noise values are compared. Maximum and minimum values of the atmospheric attenuation over a two way path of 20 km range are calculated as a function of altitude using models of atmosphere, aerosol concentration, and turbulence.

Murty, S. S. R.↗
NASA NTRS1986

X-ray satellite (Rosat)

An overview of the current status of the ROSAT X-Ray satellite project is given. Areas discussed include an overview of problem areas, systems and mechanical subsystems, the electrical subsystem, power supply, data processing and transmission, the wide field camera, ground support equipment and the production scheduling. It is shown that the project is proceeding according to schedule, including the hardware production and costs. However, it is stated that estimated additional costs will exceed the plan. The previous schedule for production of the flight model will no longer be met. A modified milestone plan has been worked out with Dornier Systems. The current working schedule calls for a launch data of December 21, 1987; however, this does not take into account a 4-week buffer prior to transporting the flight model to the launch site. As of the date of this report, milestone M5 has been met. Previous problems with the gold vapor deposition on the flight model mirror due to contamination have been eliminated.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1992

Microtopographic evolution of lava flows at Cima volcanic field, Mojave Desert, California

Microtopographic profiles were measured and power spectra calculated for dated lava flow surfaces at Cima volcanic field in the eastern Mojave Desert of California in order to quantify changes in centimeter- to meter-scale roughness as a function of age. For lava flows younger than about 0.8 m.y., roughness over all spatial scales decreases with age, with meter-scale roughness decreasing slightly more than centimeter scales. Flows older than about 0.8 m.y. show a reversal of this trend, becoming as rough as young flows at these scales. Modeling indicates that eolian deposition can explain most of the change observed in the offset, or roughness amplitude, of power spectra of flow surface profiles up to 0.8 m.y. Other processes, such as rubbing and stone pavement development, appear to have a minor effect in this age range. Changes in power spectra of surfaces older than about 0.8 m.y. are consistent with roughening due to fluvial dissection. These results agree qualitatively with a process-response model that attributes systematic changes in flow surface morphology to cyclic changes in the rates of eolian, soil formation, and fluvial processes. Identification of active surficial processes and estimation of the extent of their effects, or stage of surficial evolution, through measurement of surface roughness will help put the correlation of surficial units on a quantitative basis. This may form the basis for the use of radar remote sensing data to help in regional correlations of surficial units.

Farr, Tom G.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Time-dependent reliability analysis of ceramic engine components

The computer program CARES/LIFE calculates the time-dependent reliability of monolithic ceramic components subjected to thermomechanical and/or proof test loading. This program is an extension of the CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) computer program. CARES/LIFE accounts for the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth (SCG) by utilizing either the power or Paris law relations. The two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function is used to characterize the variation in component strength. The effects of multiaxial stresses are modeled using either the principle of independent action (PIA), the Weibull normal stress averaging method (NSA), or the Batdorf theory. Inert strength and fatigue parameters are estimated from rupture strength data of naturally flawed specimens loaded in static, dynamic, or cyclic fatigue. Two example problems demonstrating proof testing and fatigue parameter estimation are given.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗
NASA NTRS2001

ROSAT HRI and ASCA Observations of the Spiral Galaxy NGC 6946 and its Northeast Complex of Luminous Supernova Remnants

Analysis of 80 ks ASCA (Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics) and 60 ks ROSAT HRI (High Resolution Image) observations of the face-on spiral galaxy NGC 6946 are presented. The ASCA image is the first observation of this galaxy above approximately 2 keV. Diffuse emission may be present in the inner approximately 4' extending to energies above approximately 2-3 keV. In the HRI data, 14 pointlike sources are detected, the brightest two being a source very close to the nucleus and a source to the northeast that corresponds to a luminous complex of interacting supernova remnants (SNRs). We detect a point source that lies approximately 30" west of the SNR complex but with a luminosity -1115 of the SNR complex. None of the point sources show evidence of strong variability; weak variability would escape our detection. The ASCA spectrum of the SNR complex shows evidence for an emission line at approximately 0.9 keV that could be either Ne IX at approximately 0.915 keV or a blend of ion stages of Fe L-shell emission if the continuum is fitted with a power law. However, a two-component, Raymond-Smith thermal spectrum with no lines gives an equally valid continuum fit and may be more physically plausible given the observed spectrum below 3 keV. Adopting this latter model, we derive a density for the SNR complex of 10-35 cm(exp -3), consistent with estimates inferred from optical emission-line ratios. The complex's extraordinary X-ray luminosity may be related more to the high density of the surrounding medium than to a small but intense interaction region where two of the complex's SNRs are apparently colliding.

Schlegel, E.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Using CO2:CO Correlations to Improve Inverse Analyses of Carbon Fluxes

Observed correlations between atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CO represent potentially powerful information for improving CO2 surface flux estimates through coupled CO2-CO inverse analyses. We explore the value of these correlations in improving estimates of regional CO2 fluxes in east Asia by using aircraft observations of CO2 and CO from the TRACE-P campaign over the NW Pacific in March 2001. Our inverse model uses regional CO2 and CO surface fluxes as the state vector, separating biospheric and combustion contributions to CO2. CO2-CO error correlation coefficients are included in the inversion as off-diagonal entries in the a priori and observation error covariance matrices. We derive error correlations in a priori combustion source estimates of CO2 and CO by propagating error estimates of fuel consumption rates and emission factors. However, we find that these correlations are weak because CO source uncertainties are mostly determined by emission factors. Observed correlations between atmospheric CO2 and CO concentrations imply corresponding error correlations in the chemical transport model used as the forward model for the inversion. These error correlations in excess of 0.7, as derived from the TRACE-P data, enable a coupled CO2-CO inversion to achieve significant improvement over a CO2-only inversion for quantifying regional fluxes of CO2.

Palmer, Paul I.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We distributed monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003-2009 on a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) active fire observations. We found that patterns of daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of bunting in savannas. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

Mu, M.↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Search for H-Dropout Lyman Break Galaxies at z∼12–16

We present two bright galaxy candidates at z ∼ 12–13 identified in our H-dropout Lyman break selection with 2.3 deg(exp 2) near-infrared deep imaging data. These galaxy candidates, selected after careful screening of foreground interlopers, have spectral energy distributions showing a sharp discontinuity around 1.7 μm, a flat continuum at 2–5 μm, and nondetections at <1.2 μm in the available photometric data sets, all of which are consistent with a z > 12 galaxy. An ALMA program targeting one of the candidates shows a tentative 4σ [O III] 88 μm line at z = 13.27, in agreement with its photometric redshift estimate. The number density of the z ∼ 12–13 candidates is comparable to that of bright z ∼ 10 galaxies and is consistent with a recently proposed double-power-law luminosity function rather than the Schechter function, indicating little evolution in the abundance of bright galaxies from z ∼ 4 to 13. Comparisons with theoretical models show that the models cannot reproduce the bright end of rest-frame ultraviolet luminosity functions at z ∼ 10–13. Combined with recent studies reporting similarly bright galaxies at z ∼ 9–11 and mature stellar populations at z ∼ 6–9, our results indicate the existence of a number of star-forming galaxies at z > 10, which will be detected with upcoming space missions such as the James Webb Space Telescope, Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, and GREX-PLUS.

Galaxy evolution↗
DOE OSTI2022

Strong Lensing Parameter Estimation on Ground-Based Imaging Data Using Simulation-Based Inference

Current ground-based cosmological surveys, such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES), are predicted to discover thousands of galaxy-scale strong lenses, while future surveys, such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will increase that number by 1-2 orders of magnitude. The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future surveys will make strong lensing a highly competitive and complementary cosmic probe. To leverage the increased statistical power of the lenses that will be discovered through upcoming surveys, automated lens analysis techniques are necessary. We present two Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) approaches for lens parameter estimation of galaxy-galaxy lenses. We demonstrate the successful application of Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) to automate the inference of a 12-parameter lens mass model for DES-like ground-based imaging data. We compare our NPE constraints to a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) and find that it outperforms the BNN, producing posterior distributions that are for the most part both more accurate and more precise; in particular, several source-light model parameters are systematically biased in the BNN implementation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Techno-Economic Performance of Eavor Loop 2.0

This project evaluated techno-economic performance for a sample Eavor-Loop 2.0 design for electricity production and direct-use heating. The Eavor-Loop 2.0 design investigated is a 7.5-km deep closed-loop geothermal system consisting of 12 laterals for a total of more than 90 km of downhole well and lateral length. Both a high geothermal gradient scenario of 60 degrees C/km and a low geothermal gradient scenario of 30 degrees C/km were considered. With pure water injected at 60 degrees C and 80 kg/s, reservoir simulations with the Slender-Body Theory simulator indicate average production temperatures over a 30-year lifetime of ~125 degrees C and ~210 degrees C for the low and high geothermal gradient scenario, respectively. These correspond to heat production of ~22 M Wth and ~51 M Wth, respectively. Using IPSEpro simulations, we find average power production of ~2.2 M We and ~8.6 M We, respectively, for a subcritical organic Rankine cycle power plant with air-cooled condensers. Cost estimates indicate the overall capital and levelized costs are dominated by the lateral drilling cost. Obtaining a levelized cost of electricity below $70/M Wh requires a geothermal gradient of 60 degrees C/km, a discount rate below 9%, and lateral drilling cost below $400/m. A well cost model indicates that ~$400/m for the Eavor-Loop 2.0 design investigated can be obtained for a drilling rate of penetration about 40 ft/hr (with bit life of 50 hours), and omitting casing and cement. Traditional (geothermal) well drilling has achieved these drilling rate conditions, including the Utah FORGE project where the rate of penetration has exceeded 50 ft/hr in granite. However, it is unclear if these conditions are still valid for drilling the Eavor-Loop 2.0 laterals (i.e., ~82 km of laterals at 4 to 7.5-km vertical depth with rock temperatures up to 460 degrees C), as such downhole completion has never been developed before. Competitive levelized cost of heat values ($1.2-$8.2/GJ) are calculated, even for the low geothermal gradient scenario (30 degrees C/km) and lateral drilling cost of $600/m.

advanced geothermal system↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurement-informed Dynamic Aggregation of Distribution Systems

This paper proposes a measurement-informed dynamic aggregation methodology in order to create equivalent representations of distribution systems that are compatible with large-scale transmission analysis. By optimizing an equivalent feeder parameters using time-series measurements of active power, reactive power, and voltage at the Point of Interconnection (POI), the approach yields simplified yet dynamically accurate equivalents. Implemented in PSCAD with models of photovoltaic–battery systems, three-phase motors, and static loads, the method employs hybrid differential evolution and bounded least-squares optimization laying the foundation for for real-time state estimation and optimized sensor placement in distribution networks.

Ahmed, Kazi Ishrak [University of Tennessee, Knoxv↗
DOE OSTI2022

Revisiting stellar properties of star-forming galaxies with stellar and nebular spectral modelling

Spectral synthesis is a powerful tool for interpreting the physical properties of galaxies by decomposing their spectral energy distributions (SEDs) into the main luminosity contributors (e.g. stellar populations of distinct age and metallicity or ionised gas). However, the impact nebular emission has on the inferred properties of star-forming (SF) galaxies has been largely overlooked over the years, with unknown ramifications to the current understanding of galaxy evolution. The objective of this work is to estimate the relations between stellar properties (e.g. total mass, mean age, and mean metallicity) of SF galaxies by simultaneously fitting the stellar and nebular continua and comparing them to the results derived through the more common purely stellar spectral synthesis approach. The main galaxy sample from SDSS DR7 was analysed with two distinct population synthesis codes: FADO, which estimates self-consistently both the stellar and nebular contributions to the SED, and the original version of STARLIGHT, as representative of purely stellar population synthesis codes. Differences between codes regarding average mass, mean age and mean metallicity values can go as high as ~0.06 dex for the overall population of galaxies and ~0.12 dex for SF galaxies (galaxies with EW(Hα) > 3 Å), with the most prominent difference between both codes in the two populations being in the light-weighted mean stellar age. FADO presents a broader range of mean stellar ages and metallicities for SF galaxies than STARLIGHT, with the latter code preferring metallicity solutions around the solar value (Z ⊙ = 0.02). A closer look into the average light- and mass-weighted star formation histories of intensively SF galaxies (EW(Hα) > 75 Å) reveals that the light contributions of simple stellar populations (SSPs) younger than ≤10 7 (10 9 ) years in STARLIGHT are higher by ~5.41% (9.11%) compared to FADO. Moreover, FADO presents higher light contributions from SSPs with metallicity ≤ Z ⊙ /200 (Z ⊙ /50) of around 8.05% (13.51%) when compared with STARLIGHT. This suggests that STARLIGHT is underestimating the average light-weighted age of intensively SF galaxies by up to ~0.17 dex and overestimating the light-weighted metallicity by up to ~0.13 dex compared to FADO (or vice versa). The comparison between the average stellar properties of passive, SF and intensively SF galaxy samples also reveals that differences between codes increase with increasing EW(Hα) and decreasing total stellar mass. Moreover, comparing SF results from FADO in a purely stellar mode with the previous results qualitatively suggests that differences between codes are primarily due to mathematical and statistical differences and secondarily due to the impact of the nebular continuum modelling approach (or lack thereof). However, it is challenging to adequately quantify the relative role of each factor since they are likely interconnected. This work finds indirect evidence that a purely stellar population synthesis approach negatively impacts the inferred stellar properties (e.g. mean age and mean metallicity) of galaxies with relatively high star formation rates (e.g. dwarf spirals, ‘green peas’, and starburst galaxies). In turn, this can bias interpretations of fundamental relations such as the mass-age or mass-metallicity, which are factors worth bearing in mind in light of future high-resolution spectroscopic surveys at higher redshifts (e.g. MOONS and 4MOST-4HS).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

DART-PFLOTRAN: An ensemble-based data assimilation system for estimating subsurface flow and transport model parameters

Ensemble-based Data Assimilation (EDA), based on the Monte Carlo approach, has been effectively applied to estimate model parameters through inverse modeling in subsurface flow and transport problems. However, implementation of EDA approach involves a complicated workflow that include setting up and executing ensemble forward model simulations, processing observations and model simulation results for parameter updates, and repeat for sequential or iterative EDA. To facilitate the management of such workflow and lower the barriers for adopting EDA-based parameter estimation in subsurface science, we develop a generic software frame-work linking the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) with a massively parallel subsurface FLOw and TRANsport code PFLOTRAN. The new DART-PFLOTRAN leverages both the core data assimilation engines in DART and the computational power afforded by PFLOTRAN. In addition to the standard smoother and filtering options, DART-PFLOTRAN enables an iterative EDA workflow based on the Ensemble Smoother for Multiple Data Assimilation method (ES-MDA) to improve estimation accuracy for nonlinear forward problems. Here, we verify the implementation of ES-MDA in DART-PFLOTRAN using two synthetic cases designed to estimate static permeability and dynamic exchange fluxes across the riverbed, respectively, from continuous temperature measurements made across a depth profile. One-dimensional hydro-thermal simulations are performed in both cases to relate temperature responses with the parameters of interest. In the case of estimating dynamic parameters, we demonstrate the flexibility of DART-PFLOTRAN in automating sequential ES-MDA workflow, which will significantly reduce the time researchers spend on managing complex workflows in similar applications. Both studies yield accurate estimations of the parameters compared to their synthetic truth, while ES-MDA leads to more accurate estimation when a high level of nonlinearity exist between observed responses and unknown parameters. With a code base in Python and Fortran, DART-PFLOTRAN paves the way for applications in large-scale subsurface inverse modeling by automating the complex workflow of sequential ES-MDA that can be executed on various computing platforms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reconnection-driven Flares in M87*: Proton–Synchrotron-powered GeV Emission

Magnetic reconnection in current layers that form intermittently in radiatively inefficient accretion flows onto black holes is a promising mechanism for particle acceleration and high-energy emission. It has been recently proposed that such layers, arising during flux eruption events, can power the rapid TeV flares observed from the core of M87. In this scenario, inverse-Compton scattering of soft radiation from the accretion flow by energetic electron–positron pairs produced near the reconnection layer was suggested as the primary emission mechanism. However, detailed calculations show that radiation from pairs alone cannot account for the GeV emission detected by the Fermi observatory. In this work, we combine analytic estimates with 3D radiative particle-in-cell simulations of pair–proton plasmas to show that the GeV emission can be naturally explained by synchrotron radiation from protons accelerated in the current sheet. Although the exact proton content of the layer is uncertain, our model remains robust across a broad range of proton-to-pair number density ratios. While protons are subdominant in number compared to pairs, our simulations demonstrate that they can be accelerated more efficiently, leading to a self-regulated steady state in which protons dominate the energy budget. Ultimately, proton synchrotron emission accounts for approximately 5%–20% of the total dissipation power. The majority is radiated as MeV photons via pair synchrotron emission, with a smaller fraction emitted as TeV photons through inverse-Compton scattering.

Active galactic nuclei↗