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At least 1,315 records · Page 73
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

An Estimation of the Likelihood of Significant Eruptions During 2000-2009 Using Poisson Statistics on Two-Point Moving Averages of the Volcanic Time Series

Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (volcanic explosivity index (VEI)>=4) per decade spans 2-11, with 96 percent located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere. A two-point moving average of the volcanic time series has higher values since the 1860's than before, being 8.00 in the 1910's (the highest value) and 6.50 in the 1980's, the highest since the 1910's peak. Because of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that its value for the 1990's will measure approximately 6.50 +/- 1, implying that approximately 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially those having VEI>=5) nearly always have been associated with short-term episodes of global cooling, the occurrence of even one might confuse our ability to assess the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more events with a VEI>=4 within the next ten years is >99 percent. It is approximately 49 percent for an event with a VEI>=5, and 18 percent for an event with a VEI>=6. Hence, the likelihood that a climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next ten years appears reasonably high.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

An Estimate of the Likelihood for a Climatically Significant Volcanic Eruption Within the Present Decade (2000-2009)

Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (i.e., those having a volcanic explosivity index, or VEI, equal to 4 or larger) per decade is found to span 2-11, with 96% located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere, A two-point moving average of the time series has higher values since the 1860s than before, measuring 8.00 in the 1910s (the highest value) and measuring 6.50 in the 1980s, the highest since the 18 1 0s' peak. On the basis of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that the two-point moving average for the 1990s will measure about 6.50 +/- 1.00, implying that about 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially, those having VEI equal to 5 or larger) nearly always have been associated with episodes of short-term global cooling, the occurrence of even one could ameliorate the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more VEI equal to 4 or larger events occurring within the next ten years is >99%, while it is about 49% for VEI equal to 5 or larger events and 18% for VEI equal to 6 or larger events. Hence, the likelihood that a, climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next 10 years appears reasonably high.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Opportunities for installed combined heat and power (CHP) to increase grid flexibility in the U.S.

Increasing use of renewable energy requires sufficient grid flexibility to address uncertainty and variability in electricity generation. Previous studies suggest that combined heat and power (CHP) systems may support grid flexibility but they do not consider operating hours. In this paper, we used CHP operating data and determined annual and monthly availability of the installed CHP capacity from various sectors (e.g., utility, independent power producer, commercial, and industrial) in all seven U.S. independent system operators (ISOs) and regional transmission organizations (RTOs). Also, we estimated hourly CHP availability installed in five facility types (i.e., hospitals, universities, hotels, offices, and manufacturing) in the state of New York. The results show that regardless of ISO/RTO, sector, or season, more than 40% of the installed CHP capacity (0.7–8.7 GW) was not fully utilized in 2019; the results are similar for 2018. This available CHP capacity accounted for up to 9% of the ISO/RTO's peak electric demand, which may yield cost savings up to $16 billion by avoiding installation costs of new natural gas combustion or combined-cycle turbines. To exploit the available CHP capacity to enhance grid flexibility, we recommend different policy implications including flexible contract lengths between CHP owners and grid operators, improved market designs, and simplified interconnection standards.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fine-scale vegetation composition and structure shape spatiotemporal variation in surface albedo across a low Arctic tundra landscape

The unprecedented rate of warming in the Arctic is driving changes in the structure and composition of tundra vegetation. Increases in deciduous tall shrub cover, height, and density are of particular concern, as these changes alter local surface albedo in ways that could amplify effects on the regional surface energy budget (SEB). Despite this importance, significant uncertainties remain in understanding the interplay between fine-scale vegetation patterns and emergent albedo dynamics across space and time. Here, we address these uncertainties by (1) quantifying spatiotemporal variation in surface shortwave albedo and (2) determining the relative influence of fine-scale vegetation composition, structure, and environmental conditions on albedo across a representative low-Arctic tundra landscape on Alaska’s Seward Peninsula. To do this, we synthesized multi-scale, multi-platform remote sensing observations, including a novel Landsat-derived albedo time series, a fine-scale map of Arctic plant functional type (PFT) fractional cover, and airborne LiDAR estimates of canopy height and topography. We show that there are substantial reductions in winter albedo for pixels dominated by tall, woody PFTs (28.13%) relative to pixels dominated by non-woody vegetation, but almost no change in summer albedo (3% increase). Further, we identified a unimodal trend in the relationship between canopy height and the timing of the springtime transition from high (snowy) to low (leafy) albedo (peak at 5.5 m), possibly because of competing ‘snow-fence’ and ‘protrusion’ snow-shrub interactions. To explore the primary drivers of albedo, we constructed a random forest model and found that canopy height and the fractional cover of woody PFTs were as- or more important predictors of winter albedo than topographic features. These findings provide strong evidence for the impacts of local vegetation characteristics on regional surface albedo, highlighting the need for better quantification of snow-shrub interactions to accurately predict the Arctic’s SEB under future environmental change.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS1983

Design for prevention of acoustic fatigue

It is pointed out that new noise prediction methods and acoustic life estimation methods have matured to the point where they can be combined into a unified engineering procedure. "Life derivatives" can be extracted from parametric charts to furnish design data for preventing acoustic fatigue. The acoustic fatigue life is shown to be sensitive to the damping ratio through the use of life derivatives. The localized nature of propeller noise can be quantified with an "isodecibel" contour diagram.Even though the peak sound pressure level may be high, the directional derivatives show the noise decay rates with distance. Acoustic fatigue design is discussed from the overall design methodology and is shown to be similar to other structural design problems. While nonlinearities present a formidable design engineering problem, they are manageable by proven semi-empirical techniques. For new design problems, it is imperative to determine whether the data base completely spans the design variables.

Smith, H. W.↗
NASA NTRS1985

GPS high dynamic receiver tracking demonstration results

Demonstration results are presented for a high dynamic GPS receiver. The receiver tested is a breadboard unit capable of tracking one simulated satellite signal in pseudorange and range rate. The receiver makes approximate maximum likelihood estimates of pseudorange and range rate each 20 ms, and tracks these observables using a third order filter with a time constant of 0.14 s. Carrier phase is not tracked, which eliminates the typical failure mode of loss of carrier lock associated with PLLs at high dynamics. The receiver tracks with pseudorange lag errors of under 0.06 m when subjected to simulated 50 g turns with 40 g/s peak jerk. Pseudorange errors due to receiver noise alone are approximately 0.6 m rms at a carrier power to noise spectral density ratio of 34 dB-Hz. The tracking threshold SNR is approximately 28 dB-Hz, which provides 12 dB margin relative to the 40 dB-Hz that occurs with minimum specified satellite signal strength, 3.5 dB system noise figure, and 0 dBi antenna gain.

Hurd, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Determining the Oxygen Fugacity of Lunar Pyroclastic Glasses Using Vanadium Valence - An Update

We have been developing an oxygen barometer based on the valence state of V (V(2+), V(3+), V(4+), and V(5+)) in solar system basaltic glasses. The V valence is determined by synchrotron micro x-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES), which uses x-ray absorption associated with core-electronic transitions (absorption edges) to reveal a pre-edge peak whose intensity is directly proportional to the valence state of an element. XANES has advantages over other techniques that determine elemental valence because measurements can be made non-destructively in air and in situ on conventional thin sections at a micrometer spatial resolution with elemental sensitivities of approx. 100 ppm. Recent results show that fO2 values derived from the V valence technique are consistent with fO2 estimates determined by other techniques for materials that crystallized above the IW buffer. The fO2's determined by V valence (IW-3.8 to IW-2) for the lunar pyroclastic glasses, however, are on the order of 1 to 2.8 log units below previous estimates. Furthermore, the calculated fO2's decrease with increasing TiO2 contents from the A17 VLT to the A17 Orange glasses. In order to investigate these results further, we have synthesized lunar green and orange glasses and examined them by XANES.

Karner, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Evidence for Ultra-Fast Outflows in Radio-Quiet AGNs: Detailed Photoionization Modeling of Fe K-Shell Absorption Lines - 2

X-ray absorption line spectroscopy has recently shown evidence for previously unknown Ultra-fast Outflows (UFOs) in radio-quiet AGNs. In the previous paper of this series we defined UFOs as those absorbers with an outflow velocity higher than 10,000km/s and assessed the statistical significance of the associated blue shifted FeK absorption lines in a large sample of 42 local radio-quiet AGNs observed with XMM-Newton. In the present paper we report a detailed curve of growth analysis and directly model the FeK absorbers with the Xstar photo-ionization code. We confirm that the frequency of sources in the radio-quiet sample showing UFOs is >35%. The outflow velocity distribution spans from \sim10,000km/s (\sim0.03c) up to \siml00,000kmis (\sim0.3c), with a peak and mean value of\sim42,000km/s (\sim0.14c). The ionization parameter is very high and in the range log\xi 3-6 erg s/cm, with a mean value of log\xi 4.2 erg s/cm. The associated column densities are also large, in the range N_H\siml0(exp 22)-10(exp 24)/sq cm, with a mean value of N_H\siml0(exp23)/sq cm. We discuss and estimate how selection effects, such as those related to the limited instrumental sensitivity at energies above 7keV, may hamper the detection of even higher velocities and higher ionization absorbers. We argue that, overall, these results point to the presence of extremely ionized and possibly almost Compton thick outflowing material in the innermost regions of AGNs. This also suggests that UFOs may potentially play a significant role in the expected cosmological feedback from AGNs and their study can provide important clues on the connection between accretion disks, winds and jets.

Tombesi, Francesco↗
NASA NTRS2013

Lightning NOx Statistics Derived by NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) Data Analyses

What is the LNOM? The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) [Koshak et al., 2009, 2010, 2011; Koshak and Peterson 2011, 2013] analyzes VHF Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and National Lightning Detection Network(TradeMark) (NLDN) data to estimate the lightning nitrogen oxides (LNOx) produced by individual flashes. Figure 1 provides an overview of LNOM functionality. Benefits of LNOM: (1) Does away with unrealistic "vertical stick" lightning channel models for estimating LNOx; (2) Uses ground-based VHF data that maps out the true channel in space and time to < 100 m accuracy; (3) Therefore, true channel segment height (ambient air density) is used to compute LNOx; (4) True channel length is used! (typically tens of kilometers since channel has many branches and "wiggles"); (5) Distinction between ground and cloud flashes are made; (6) For ground flashes, actual peak current from NLDN used to compute NOx from lightning return stroke; (7) NOx computed for several other lightning discharge processes (based on Cooray et al., 2009 theory): (a) Hot core of stepped leaders and dart leaders, (b) Corona sheath of stepped leader, (c) K-change, (d) Continuing Currents, and (e) M-components; and (8) LNOM statistics (see later) can be used to parameterize LNOx production for regional air quality models (like CMAQ), and for global chemical transport models (like GEOS-Chem).

Koshak, William↗
NASA NTRS2015

Simultaneous NuSTAR/Chandra Observations of the Bursting Pulsar GRO J1744-28 During its Third Reactivation

We report on a 10 ks simultaneous Chandra/High Energy Transmission Grating (HETG)-Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) observation of the Bursting Pulsar, GRO J1744-28, during its third detected outburst since discovery and after nearly 18 yr of quiescence. The source is detected up to 60 keV with an Eddington persistent flux level. Seven bursts, followed by dips, are seen with Chandra, three of which are also detected with NuSTAR. Timing analysis reveals a slight increase in the persistent emission pulsed fraction with energy (from 10% to 15%) up to 10 keV, above which it remains constant. The 0.5-70 keV spectra of the persistent and dip emission are the same within errors and well described by a blackbody (BB), a power-law (PL) with an exponential rolloff, a 10 keV feature, and a 6.7 keV emission feature, all modified by neutral absorption. Assuming that the BB emission originates in an accretion disk, we estimate its inner (magnetospheric) radius to be about 4 x 10(exp 7) cm, which translates to a surface dipole field B approximately 9 x 10(exp 10) G. The Chandra/HETG spectrum resolves the 6.7 keV feature into (quasi-)neutral and highly ionized Fe XXV and Fe XXVI emission lines. XSTAR modeling shows these lines to also emanate from a truncated accretion disk. The burst spectra, with a peak flux more than an order of magnitude higher than Eddington, are well fit with a PL with an exponential rolloff and a 10 keV feature, with similar fit values compared to the persistent and dip spectra. The burst spectra lack a thermal component and any Fe features. Anisotropic (beamed) burst emission would explain both the lack of the BB and any Fe components.

pulsars: general aEuro" stars: individual (GRO J17↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Hierarchical Control Architecture: Utilization of Behind-the-Meter Appliances with Increased Visibility and Controllability

Optimal operations of distribution systems to enhance reliability and resiliency can be achieved if information with higher fidelity can be accessed from grid premise devices. This paper discusses a hierarchical control architecture that can introduce higher visibility and controllability by utilizing the estimated injection and absorption of different behind-the-meter controllable loads, and DERs, including EVs, within a premise. The acquired information is used to make control decisions for scheduling the premise appliances to reduce energy consumptions. The premise controller can also optimize the consumptions on a day-to-day basis in addition to taking input signals from the utility operators to support grid-service events (e.g., peak shaving). The entire control architecture is designed in a modular and scalable fashion that provides benefits to the utility from the reuse of existing infrastructure while creating opportunities for various grid services to be enabled by the operation of premise controllers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of GlassNet for physics-informed machine learning of glass stability and glass-forming ability

Glassy materials form the basis of many modern applications, including nuclear waste immobilization, touch-screen displays, and optical fibers, and also hold great potential for future medical and environmental applications. However, their structural complexity and large composition space make design and optimization challenging for certain applications. Of particular importance for glass processing and design is an estimate of a given composition's glass-forming ability (GFA). However, there remain many open questions regarding the underlying physical mechanisms of glass formation, especially in oxide glasses. It is apparent that a proxy for GFA would be highly useful in glass processing and design, but identifying such a surrogate property has proven itself to be difficult. While glass stability (GS) parameters have historically been used as a GFA surrogate, recent research has demonstrated that most of these parameters are not accurate predictors of the GFA of oxide glasses. Here, in this work, we explore the application of an open-source pre-trained neural network model, GlassNet, that can predict the characteristic temperatures necessary to compute GS with reasonable performance and assess the feasibility of using these physics-informed machine learning (PIML)-predicted GS parameters to estimate GFA. In doing so, we track the uncertainties at each step of the computation—from the original ML prediction errors to the compounding of errors during GS estimation, and finally to the final estimation of GFA. While GlassNet exhibits reasonable accuracy on all individual properties, we observe a large compounding of error in the combination of these individual predictions for the PIML prediction of GS, finding that random forest models offer similar accuracy to GlassNet. We also break down the performance of GlassNet on different glass families and find that the error in GS prediction is correlated with the error in crystallization peak temperature prediction. Lastly, we utilize this finding to assess the relationship between top-performing GS parameters and GFA for two ternary glass systems: sodium borosilicate and sodium iron phosphate glasses. We conclude that to obtain true ML predictive capability of GFA, significantly more data needs to be collected.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1978

An emission mechanism for the Io-independent Jovian decameter radiation

A theory of the Io-independent decameter radiation is developed. The radiation results from excitation of the electromagnetic loss-cone instability by keV electrons, stably trapped near L = 6. The radiation is excited in Band 3 of the extraordinary mode. When the effects of refraction are estimated, it is shown that above 10 MHz radiation is beamed into the equatorial plane in a wide, but thin, conical sheet (Psi approximately equals 80 degrees). When the instability analysis is coupled with one of the octupole models of the Jovian magnetic field, the maximum convective growth of the instability occurs in the directions of the non-Io A, B, and C sources. The shape of the peak radio flux frequency spectrum is found to be a consequence of the loss cone shape of the electron distribution function.

Goldstein, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1979

The seasonal variation of atmospheric pressure on Mars as affected by the south polar cap

The daily mean pressures at two locations on Mars, observed over 57% of a Martian year, reveal a semiannual oscillation with a peak-to-peak difference that is 26% of the mean pressure. This intrinsically Martian phenomenon is caused by exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and the winter polar caps. Evidence is presented that the difference in pressure at the two landers varies with season and that the seasonal variation is not completely removed by hydrostatic correction for the difference in elevation. The mass CO2 sublimed from the south polar cap is estimated to be greater than or equal to 7.9 x 10 to the 12th metric tons, corresponding to a mean thickness of solid CO2 over the maximum extent of that cap of greater than or equal to 23 cm. Estimates are formed of the meridonal wind speed conveying gas out of the dissipating cap and the associated zonal geostrophic wind, both averaged over longitude. The results are approximately 2.3 m/sec and 14 m/sec, respectively.

Hess, S. L.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Part 1: Aspects of lithospheric evolution on Venus. Part 2: Thermal and collisional histories of chondrite parent bodies

The geological evolution of distinctly different kinds of solar system objects is addressed. Venus has been observed over the past decade by orbital radars on both American and Soviet spacecraft. These surface measurements provide clues to the structure and evolution of the lithosphere. The parent bodies of chondritic meteorites, thought to resemble asteroids, represent the other end of the size spectrum of terrestrial objects. Their early thermal and collisional histories may be constrained by the chemical and textural record preserved in meteorite samples. Impact craters on Venus have been observed by the Soviet Venera 15/16 spacecraft. A formalism is presented by which the size-frequency distribution of impact craters may be used to estimate upper bounds on the mean global rates of volcanic resurfacing and lithospheric recycling on that planet over the past several hundred million years. The impact crater density reported from Venera observations, if valid for the entire Venus surface, indicates a mean volcanic flux no greater than 2 cu km/y, corresponding to a maximum average rate of resurfacing of about 4 km/b.y. For the lowest estimated mean crater retention age of the surface of Venus imaged by Venera 15/16, the rate of lithospheric recycling on Venus does not exceed 1.5 sq km/y. Ordinary chondrite meteorites show textural and chemical patterns indicative of varying intensities of thermal metamorphism. The conventional onion-shell model, which envisions highly metamorphosed material in the core and less intensely heated rocks near the surface, predicts an inverse relation between peak temperature and cooking rate, but none has been observed. A metamorphosed-planetesimal model is devised to explain this discrepancy, whereby heating occurs in planetesimals a few kilometers in radius which then accrete to form 100-km-radius parent bodies. Cooling rates are then randomly controlled by burial depth. Thermal and collisional constraints are examined, and the model is found to be applicable only to highly insulating Al-26-rich planetesimals that remain closely aggregated upon accretion. An alternative model is presented, in which onion-shell parent bodies are collisionally fragmented during metamorphism and then gravitationally reassembled. If reassembly times are short, then cooling rates would be determined by burial depth in the reaccreted parent body. This model, unlike previous ones, can explain both coherent and incoherent cooling of Breccia clasts by collisions during or after metamorphism, respectively.

Grimm, Robert E.↗
NASA NTRS1997

A study of the physics and chemistry of TMC-1

We present a comprehensive study of the physical and chemical conditions along the TMC-1 ridge. Temperatures were estimated from observations of CH3CCH, NH3, and CO. Densities were obtained from a multitransition study of HC3N. The values of the density and temperature allow column densities for 13 molecular species to be estimated from statistical equilibrium calculations, using observations of rarer isotopomers where possible, to minimize opacity effects. The most striking abundance variations relative to HCO+ along the ridge were seen for HC3N, CH3CCH, and SO, while smaller variations were seen in CS, C2H, and HCN. On the other hand, the NH3, HNC, and N2H+ abundances relative to HCO+ were determined to be constant, indicating that the so-called NH3 peak in TMC-1 is probably a peak in the ammonia column density rather than a relative abundance peak. In contrast, the well-studied cyanopolyyne peak is most likely due to an enhancement in the abundance of long-chain carbon species. Comparisons of the derived abundances to the results of time-dependent chemical models show good overall agreement for chemical timescales around 10(5) yr. We find that the observed abundance gradients can be explained either by a small variation in the chemical timescale from 1.2 x 10(5) to 1.8 x 10(5) yr or by a factor of 2 change in the density along the ridge. Alternatively, a variation in the C/O ratio from 0.4 to 0.5 along the ridge produces an abundance gradient similar to that observed.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Approximate Boltzmann distributions in quantum approximate optimization

Approaches to compute or estimate the output probability distributions from the quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) are needed to assess the likelihood it will obtain a quantum computational advantage. We analyze output from QAOA circuits solving 7200 random MaxCut instances, with $n$ = 14–23 qubits and depth parameter $p$ ≤ 12 and find that the average basis state probabilities follow approximate Boltzmann distributions: The average probabilities scale exponentially with their energy (cut value), with a peak at the optimal solution. Furthermore, we describe the rate of exponential scaling or effective temperature in terms of a series with a leading-order term $T$ ~ $C$ min /$n$ $\sqrt{p}$, with $C$ min the optimal solution energy. Using this scaling, we generate approximate output distributions with up to 38 qubits and find these give accurate accounts of important performance metrics in cases we can simulate exactly.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1983

Multiple energetic injections in a strong spike-like solar burst

An intense and fast spike-like solar burst was built up of short time scale structures superimposed on an underlying gradual emission, the time evolution of which shows remarkable proportionality between hard X-ray and microwave fluxes. The finer time structure were best defined at mm-microwaves. At the peak of the event, the finer structures repeat every 30x60ms. The more slowly varying component with a time scale of about 1 second was identified in microwave hard X-rays throughout the burst duration. It is suggested that X-ray fluxes might also be proportional to the repetition rate of basic units of energy injection (quasi-quantized). The relevant parameters of one primary energy release site are estimated both in the case where hard X-rays are produced primarily by thick-target bremsstrahlung, and when they are purely thermal. The relation of this figure to global energy considerations is discussed.

Kaufmann, P.↗