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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing A Continuous Ozone Record Through the SAGE and Aura Missions With NASA Reanalysis Products

During the last quarter of the 20th century, the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) missions were crucial in monitoring the loss and the subsequent recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. Due to the employed solar occultation and self-calibration method, the SAGE monitors have produced stable data throughout the lifetime of each instrument. However, over ten years passed between the end of the SAGE II and SAGE III/M3M missions in 2005 and the launch of SAGE III/ISS instrument in 2017, leaving a gap in the data that much be bridged in order to assess the trends in the ozone record. Reanalysis products, such as the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), are attractive candidates for trend analysis due to the statistically optimized combination of multiple observing systems and the regular temporal and spatial coverage. In this study, we explore using the SAGE records to develop a stable reanalysis data product, suitable for trend analysis, from the start of the SAGE II record in 1984 through the present. Changes in the assimilated observation systems can introduce discontinuities within the MERRA-2 ozone record, such as in 2004 when the MERRA-2 system shifted from assimilating ozone retrievals collected by SBUV instruments to those collected by instruments onboard the Aura satellite. We follow the radiative transfer procedure outlined by Wargan et al. (2018) to address discontinuities in the MERRA-2 ozone dataset at the 2004 transition and during the Aura record. SAGE II ozone profiles are used to address discontinuities in upper stratospheric ozone associated with changes in the MERRA-2 meteorological observing system in 1998 and 1995. Lastly, we will use the resulting bias-corrected MERRA-2 ozone fields to assess the relative performance of the data from different SAGE sensors.

SAGE↗
NASA NTRS1999

Statistical Properties of SGR 1900+14 Bursts

We study the statistics of soft gamma repeater (SGR) bursts, using a data base of 187 events detected with BATSE and 837 events detected with RXTE PCA, all from SGR 1900+14 during its 1998-1999 active phase. we find that the fluence or energy distribution of bursts is consistent with a power law of index 1.66, over 4 orders of magnitude. This scale-free distribution resembles the Gutenberg-Richter Law for earthquakes, and gives evidence for self-organized criticality in SGRS. The distribution of time intervals between successive bursts from SGR 1900+14 is consistent with a log-normal distribution. There is no correlation between burst intensity and the waiting times till the next burst, but there is some evidence for a correlation between burst intensity and the time elapsed since the previous burst. We also find a correlation between the duration and the energy of the bursts, but with significant scatter. In all these statistical properties, SGR bursts resemble earthquakes and solar flares more closely than they resemble any known accretion-powered or nuclear-powered phenomena. Thus our analysis lends support to the hypothesis that the energy source for SGR bursts is internal to the neutron star, and plausibly magnetic.

Gogus, Ersin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Single molecule characterization of anomalous transport in a thin, anisotropic film

Here, the diffusion of small, charged molecules incorporated in an anisotropic polyelectrolyte multilayers (PEMs) was tracked in three dimensions by combining single-molecule fluorescence localization (to characterize lateral diffusion) with Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) between diffusing molecules and the supporting surface (to measure diffusion in the surface-normal direction). Analysis of the surface-normal diffusion required model-based statistical analysis to account for the inherently noisy FRET signal. Combining these distinct single-molecule methods, which are inherently sensitive to different length scales, permitted simultaneous characterization of severely anisotropic diffusion, which was more than three orders of magnitude slower in the surface-normal direction. We hypothesize that the anomalously slow surface-normal diffusion was related to the periodic distribution of charge in the PEM, which created electrostatic barriers. The motion was strongly subdiffusive, with anomalous temporal scaling exponents in lateral and normal directions, suggesting a connection to the transient, random fractal conformation of polymer chains in the film’s matrix.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Paramagnon heat capacity in (Ti,Zr,Hf)NiFe x NiSn half-Heusler composites

As a measure of the temperature response of the energy of matter, the heat capacity $C_p$ is a fundamental thermodynamic property. Its dependence on magnetic field, especially at low temperatures, yields insight into the electronic, phononic, and magnetic states of condensed matter. Here, we present a set of paramagnetic and ferromagnetic (Ti, Zr, Hf)NiFe x Sn half-Heusler composites that exhibit low-field (<3 T) maxima in $C_p$ and higher-field magnetic quenching of the heat capacity at temperatures below 10 K. Using rigorous statistical analysis, we attribute the effect to the existence of paramagnons within the compounds. To explain the lowest-temperature (<4 K), low-field declines in $C_p$, we derive a magnon model up to fourth order in dispersion. While the combined paramagnon and magnon model matches the data well, the fit parameters are significantly underdetermined. Further, we provide a qualitative explanation of the secondary effect based on superconducting phases within the composites. Overall, our work highlights the insight of field-dependent heat capacity studies at fixed temperatures that cannot be as easily gleaned from the temperature-dependent heat capacity at fixed magnetic fields.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal multifrequency weighting for CMB lensing

We report that extragalactic foregrounds in cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature maps lead to significant biases in CMB lensing reconstruction if not properly accounted for. Combinations of multifrequency data have been used to minimize the overall map variance (internal linear combination, or ILC), or specifically null a given foreground, but these are not tailored to CMB lensing. In this paper, we derive an optimal multifrequency combination to jointly minimize CMB lensing noise and bias. We focus on the standard lensing quadratic estimator, as well as the "shear-only"and source-hardened estimators, whose responses to foregrounds differ. We show that an optimal multifrequency combination is a compromise between the ILC and joint deprojection, which nulls the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) and cosmic infrared background (CIB) contributions. In particular, for a Simons Observatory-like experiment with ℓ max,T =3000, we find that profile hardening alone (with the standard ILC) reduces the bias to the lensing power amplitude by 40%, at a 20% cost in noise, while the bias to the cross-correlation with a LSST-like sample is reduced by nearly an order of magnitude at a 10% noise cost, relative to the standard quadratic estimator. With a small amount of joint deprojection the bias to the profile hardened estimator can be further reduced to less than half the statistical uncertainty on the respective amplitudes, at a 20% and 5% noise cost for the auto- and cross-correlation respectively, relative to the profile hardened estimator with the standard ILC weights. Finally, we explore possible improvements with more aggressive masking and varying ℓ max,T .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1977

Seismic energy transmission in an intensively scattering environment

In order to account for some special features of lunar seismograms, namely, the gradual build-up of the signal, the extremely prolonged tail, and the lack of apparent coherence among three orthogonal components of ground motion, a statistical approach is proposed for describing transmission of seismic energy through a medium in which strong scattering takes place. A seismic diffusion theory is presented for a medium with randomly distributed scatterers of a given size distribution. A solution of the resulting diffusion equation for an impulsive energy source gives a curve which fairly closely reproduces the envelope of typical lunar impact seismograms. Since the model is based on constant diffusivity, long-range transmission will require a combination of diffusion and wave propagation treatments for accurate description.

Nakamura, Y.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Criteria for the use of regression analysis for remote sensing of sediment and pollutants

An examination of limitations, requirements, and precision of the linear multiple-regression technique for quantification of marine environmental parameters is conducted. Both environmental and optical physics conditions have been defined for which an exact solution to the signal response equations is of the same form as the multiple regression equation. Various statistical parameters are examined to define a criteria for selection of an unbiased fit when upwelled radiance values contain error and are correlated with each other. Field experimental data are examined to define data smoothing requirements in order to satisfy the criteria of Daniel and Wood (1971). Recommendations are made concerning improved selection of ground-truth locations to maximize variance and to minimize physical errors associated with the remote sensing experiment.

Whitlock, C. H.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Stellar contributions to the diffuse soft X-ray background

One of the results of the EINSTEIN/C.f.A. X-ray stellar survey was a determination of the contribution of the disk stellar population to the galactic component of the diffuse soft (0.28 - 1.0 keV) X-ray background. This analysis employed both binned and unbinned nonparametric statistical methods that have been developed by Avni, et al. (1980). These methods permitted the use of the information contained in both the 22 detections and 4 upper bounds on the luminosities of 26 dM stars in order to derive their luminosity function. Luminosity functions for earlier stellar types are not yet developed. For these earlier stellar types, the median luminosities as determined by Vaiana, et al., are used (1981), which underestimates their contribution to the background. We find that it is the M dwarfs that dominate the disk population stellar contribution to this background. To calculate the contribution of the stellar sources to the background, simple models both for the spatial distribution of the stars and for the properties of the intervening interstellar medium are used. A model is chosen in which all stellar classes have the same functional form for their spatial distribution: an exponentially decreasing distribution above the galactic equatorial plane, and a uniform distribution within the galactic plane for a region of several kiloparsecs centered on the Sun.

Bookbinder, J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Evaluation of LANDSAT-D Orbit Determination Using a Filter/Smoother (PREFER)

Simulated range and range rate data for five tracking stations were first generated using batch least squares orbit determination (GTDS). Then GTDS was used (in the differential correction mode) to produce a nominal trajectory which was input to PREFER. The GTDS differential correction (DC) run was made using models which differed from those used to produce the simulated data. These model differences were chosen to be fairly realistic approximations to the errors in the models actually used for operational orbit determination. Several different simulation runs were made with different types of model errors in order to determine the sensitivity to these errors. The nominal trajectory and the simulated measurement data were input to PREFER to produce a smoothed ephemeris file. Numerous runs of PREFER were made in which parameters describing the statistics of the model errors were varied. The likelihood function computed by the Kalman filter determined the ""best'' choice of input parameters. There was strong negative correlation between the likelihood function and the errors in the smoothed ephemeris.

Gibbs, B. P.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The attractor dimension of solar decimetric radio pulsations

The temporal characteristics of decimetric pulsations and related radio emissions during solar flares are analyzed using statistical methods recently developed for nonlinear dynamic systems. The results of the analysis is consistent with earlier reports on low-dimensional attractors of such events and yield a quantitative description of their temporal characteristics and hidden order. The estimated dimensions of typical decimetric pulsations are generally in the range of 3.0 + or - 0.5. Quasi-periodic oscillations and sudden reductions may have dimensions as low as 2. Pulsations of decimetric type IV continua have typically a dimension of about 4.

Kurths, J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Tail lobe ion composition at energies of 0.1 to 16 keV/e: Evidence for mass-dependent density gradients

A large set of energetic (0.1 to 16 keV/e) ion composition data from the central magnetotail, obtained by the ISEE 1 spacecraft between 10 and 23R(sub E) from Earth, is sorted according to measured total ion beta value, in order to investigate whether bulk properties of different ions vary in different ways between plasma sheets and lobes, as suggested by a comparison of certain experimental and theoretical results in the literature. Despite inevitable difficulties with extracting statistically valid data at very low beta (10(exp -2) or lower), the results seem to support a recent theoretical model suggesting that lighter ions have a steeper density gradient than heavier ions, especially when comparing H(+) ions with O(+) ions. The results also indicate that ion velocity distributions are fairly isotropic even at low beta, at least those of H(+) ions, although field-aligned flows are common. The results are evaluated in the context of plasma transport and are found to lend some support to the notion that tail lobe convection may be directed inward from the dawn and dusk flanks.

Lennartsson, O. W.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Tail lobe ion composition at energies of 0.1 to 16 keV/e: Evidence for mass-dependent density gradients

A large set of energetic (0.1- to 16-keV/e) ion composition data from the central magnetotail, obtained by the International Sun Earth Explorer (ISEE) 1 spacecraft between 10 and 23 R(sub E) from Earth, is sorted according to measured total ion beta value, in order to investigate whether bulk properties of different ions vary in different ways between plasma sheet and lobes, as suggested by a comparison of certain experimental and theoretical results in the literature. Despite inevitable difficulties with extracting statistically valid data at very low beta (10(exp -2) or lower), the results seem to support a recent theoretical model suggesting that lighter ions have a steeper density gradient than heavier ions, especially when comparing H(+) ions with O(+) ions. The results also indicate that ion velocity distributions are fairly isotropic even at low beta, at least those of H(+) ions, although field-aligned flows are common. The results are evaluated in the context of plasma transport and are found to lend some support to the notion that tail lobe convection may be directed inward from the dawn and dusk flanks.

Lennartsson, O. W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Device and methods for determination of molecular weight distributions of polymers and distributions of other polymer properties without physical separation

Devices and methods for determining the cumulative distribution of a polymer property in a reactor without physical separation of reaction subcomponents. The device includes a means of measuring an instantaneous property of the polymers being produced in a reaction vessel a plurality of times during a polymerization reaction as well as a means of determining the corresponding change in polymer concentration in the reaction vessel between measurements of the instantaneous polymer property The device also includes a means of computing a statistical distribution appropriate to the polymer characteristic and applying the statistical distribution to a recently measured instantaneous value of the polymer property so as to have an instantaneous distribution of the polymer property and a means of adding together the instantaneous distributions of the polymer property in order to obtain the cumulative distribution of the polymer property in the reactor.

Reed, Wayne Frederick↗
DOE OSTI2020

Remote Radiation Sensing Using Aerial and Ground Platforms

Remote sensing of ionizing radiation has a significant role in waste management, nuclear material management and nonproliferation, and radiation safety. Robotic platforms can surpass the number of tasks that are achieved by humans. With this technique, the operator's radiation exposure can be decreased. Remote sensing allows for the evaluation and monitoring of radiological contamination. Gamma-ray and neutron sensors were integrated onto the robotic platforms. This approach allows for the radiation sensor data to be dynamically tracked and mapped thus enabling further analysis of the radiation flux in temporal and spatial domains. The goal is to complete scheduled tasks while the robot is being irradiated. To achieve this, electronic components must be shielded and radiation hardened. CZT Detector: Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CZT) detector technology has been a promising solution for gamma-ray and x-ray measurements. Detector data is transferred to the Odroid minicomputer that controls and powers the module via the USB. Robot Operating System (ROS) was utilized for data acquisition and data fusion. The Mariscotti method was employed for the spectrum analysis. A function was programmed in ROS for the automatic identification of photopeaks. CLYC Detector: A Cs{sub 2}LiYCl{sub 6}:Ce{sup 3+} (CLYC) detector was used for simultaneous medium-resolution gamma-ray measurements and neutron counting. A 2.54 cm diameter photomultiplier tube (PMT) was equipped with a high voltage supply and a miniature digitizer. Gamma-ray excitation: fast core-to-valence luminescence (CVL) with 1 ns decay constant, and prompt Ce{sup 3+} emission with 50 ns decay constant. Neutron excitation: slow cerium self-trapped excitation (Ce{sup 3+} STE), 1000 ns decay constant. Radiation Source Localization: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and gradient-based methods were used to locate the position of a radiation source based on measured radiation intensities. Multi-Particle Transport Code FLUKA: Estimation of radiation damage of the electronic components is important in order to optimize the robot's operational time while it is irradiated. Displacement per atom (DPA) represents the radiation damage in materials exposed to the ionizing radiation. Various shielding layers of different thickness t were analyzed (< 5% statistical error). The model of the controller of the UAS was designed in FLUKA. Conclusion: CZT and CLYC detectors were integrated onto the robotic platforms. Radiation source localization and contour mapping using robotic platforms were studied. Functions for data analysis and fusion were developed in ROS. FLUKA code was utilized to analyze DPA values. Layers of low-density and high-density materials were used to shield the UAS electronics.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Device and methods for determination of molecular weight distributions of polymers and distributions of other polymer properties without physical separation

Devices and methods for determining the cumulative distribution of a polymer property in a reactor without physical separation of reaction subcomponents. The device includes a means of measuring an instantaneous property of the polymers being produced in a reaction vessel a plurality of times during a polymerization reaction as well as a means of determining the corresponding change in polymer concentration in the reaction vessel between measurements of the instantaneous polymer property. The device also includes a means of computing a statistical distribution appropriate to the polymer characteristic and applying the statistical distribution to a recently measured instantaneous value of the polymer property so as to have an instantaneous distribution of the polymer property and a means of adding together the instantaneous distributions of the polymer property in order to obtain the cumulative distribution of the polymer property in the reactor.

Reed, Wayne Frederick↗
DOE OSTI2020

A generalized approximate control variate framework for multifidelity uncertainty quantification

We describe and analyze a variance reduction approach for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling that accelerates the estimation of statistics of computationally expensive simulation models using an ensemble of models with lower cost. These lower cost models — which are typically lower fidelity with unknown statistics — are used to reduce the variance in statistical estimators relative to a MC estimator with equivalent cost. We derive the conditions under which our proposed approximate control variate framework recovers existing multifidelity variance reduction schemes as special cases. We demonstrate that existing recursive/nested strategies are suboptimal because they use the additional low-fidelity models only to efficiently estimate the unknown mean of the first low-fidelity model. As a result, they cannot achieve variance reduction beyond that of a control variate estimator that uses a single low-fidelity model with known mean. However, there often exists about an order-of-magnitude gap between the maximum achievable variance reduction using all low-fidelity models and that achieved by a single low-fidelity model with known mean. We show that our proposed approach can exploit this gap to achieve greater variance reduction by using non-recursive sampling schemes. The proposed strategy reduces the total cost of accurately estimating statistics, especially in cases where only low-fidelity simulation models are accessible for additional evaluations. Several analytic examples and an example with a hyperbolic PDE describing elastic wave propagation in heterogeneous media are used to illustrate the main features of the methodology.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Tropical Rainfall: I. Statistics of Spatial Averages

Global maps of rainfall are of great importance in connection with modeling of the earth s climate. Comparison between the maps of rainfall predicted by computer-generated climate models with observation provides a sensitive test for these models. To make such a comparison, one typically needs the total precipitation amount over a large area, which could be hundreds of kilometers in size over extended periods of time of order days or months. This presents a difficult problem since rain varies greatly from place to place as well as in time. Remote sensing methods using ground radar or satellites detect rain over a large area by essentially taking a series of snapshots at infrequent intervals and indirectly deriving the average rain intensity within a collection of pixels , usually several kilometers in size. They measure area average of rain at a particular instant. Rain gauges, on the other hand, record rain accumulation continuously in time but only over a very small area tens of centimeters across, say, the size of a dinner plate. They measure only a time average at a single location. In making use of either method one needs to fill in the gaps in the observation - either the gaps in the area covered or the gaps in time of observation. This involves using statistical models to obtain information about the rain that is missed from what is actually detected. This paper investigates such a statistical model and validates it with rain data collected over the tropical Western Pacific from ship borne radars during TOGA COARE (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment). The model incorporates a number of commonly observed features of rain. While rain varies rapidly with location and time, the variability diminishes when averaged over larger areas or longer periods of time. Moreover, rain is patchy in nature - at any instant on the average only a certain fraction of the observed pixels contain rain. The fraction of area covered by rain decreases, as the size of a pixel becomes smaller. This means that within what looks like a patch of rainy area in a coarse resolution view with larger pixel size, one finds clusters of rainy and dry patches when viewed on a finer scale. The model makes definite predictions about how these and other related statistics depend on the pixel size. These predictions were found to agree well with data. In a subsequent second part of the work we plan to test the model with rain gauge data collected during the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) ground validation campaign.

Kundu, Prasun K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Delta Method Application for the Correlation of IR Detector Thermal Parasitic Loads with Statistically Accurate Results

The Linear Etalon Imaging Spectral Array (LEISA) is a cryogenic IR detector that is passively cooled below 110K. LEISA is part of the L’Ralph instrument, which is going on the Lucy mission, with planned flyby’s of the Trojan asteroids around 5.5 AU. One of the primary thermal challenges is to successfully quantify each significant parasitic heat flow value with statistical certainty.Simulation of flight-like thermal environments and correlation of thermal models is an important part of this challenge, which can be critical for thermally sensitive systems such as cryogenic detectors that are passively cooled. It is common practice during TVAC to achieve several thermal balance points and then to correlate several design variables in order to achieve the closest match to all balance points tested. This approach lends itself to high levels of uncertainty in the correlated values due to the cumulative effect of absolute temperature uncertainty and differences between the sensors used for the measurement. Accuracy can be improved with the use of more accurate sensors, by calibrating all sensors with respect to each other, and by using Zero-Q methodologies, all of which add cost and complexity to the test.The Delta Method uses the difference in temperature caused by the changes in the boundary conditions to calculate heat flows and/or thermal resistances across temperature differentials. This eliminates the problem of high uncertainties with absolute temperature measurements, and yields statistically accurate results down to the sensor resolution of 1mK at < 100K, by taking the sensor’s calibration errors out of the equation. During testing, this method relies on parametric variations around an initial balance point, by varying the boundary conditions of the different parasitic heat sources. The Delta Method, as well as its application on the LEISA thermal test, will be discussed in detail.

Daniel G. Bae↗