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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

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NASA NTRS2021

Non-Monotonic Response of the Climate System to Abrupt CO2 Forcing

We explore the climate system response to abrupt CO2 forcing, spanning the range 1 × to 8×CO2, with two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice-land models: the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2.1-G (GISS-E2.1-G) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM-LE). We find that the effective climate sensitivity is a non-monotonic function of CO2 in both models, reaching a minimum at 3×CO2 for GISS-E2.1-G, and 4×CO2 for CESM-LE. A similar non-monotonic response is found in Northern Hemisphere surface temperature, sea-ice, precipitation, the latitude of zero precipitation minus-evaporation, and the strength of the Hadley cell. Interestingly, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation collapses when non-monotonicity appears and does not recover for larger CO2 forcings. Analyzing the climate response over the same CO2 range with slab ocean versions of the same models, we demonstrate that the climate system's non-monotonic response is linked to ocean dynamics.

Non-monotonic response↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the Influence of CAM5 Aerosol Configuration on Simulated Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic

This study examines the influence of prescribed and prognostic aerosol model configurations on the formation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic Ocean in Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The impact of aerosol parameterization is examined by investigating storm track density, genesis density, potential intensity, and genesis potential index. This work shows that both CAM5 configurations simulate reduced storm frequency when compared to observations and that differences in TC climatology between the model configurations can be explained by differences in the large-scale environment. The analysis shows that simulation with the prognostic aerosol parameterization scheme reasonably captures the observed interannual variability in tropical cyclones and aerosols (i.e., dust) in the North Atlantic, while simulation with the prescribed configuration (climatology) is less favorable. The correlation between dust and TCs in observations (i.e., reanalysis and satellite datasets) is shown to be negative, and this relationship was also found for the prognostic aerosol configuration despite an overall decrease in the frequency of TCs. This indicates that, to accurately replicate certain aspects of TC interannual variability, the aerosol configuration within CAM5 needs to account for the appropriate dust variability.

Huff, J. Jacob A. (ORCID:0000000329143817)↗

NASA NTRS2006

A comparison of global estimates of marine primary production from ocean color

The third primary production algorithm round robin (PPARR3) compares output from 24 models that estimate depth-integrated primary production from satellite measurements of ocean color, as well as seven general circulation models (GCMs) coupled with ecosystem or biogeochemical models. Here we compare the global primary production fields corresponding to eight months of 1998 and 1999 as estimated from common input fields of photosynthetically-available radiation (PAR), sea-surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth, and chlorophyll concentration. We also quantify the sensitivity of the ocean-color-based models to perturbations in their input variables. The pair-wise correlation between ocean-color models was used to cluster them into groups or related output, which reflect the regions and environmental conditions under which they respond differently. The groups do not follow model complexity with regards to wavelength or depth dependence, though they are related to the manner in which temperature is used to parameterize photosynthesis. Global average PP varies by a factor of two between models. The models diverged the most for the Southern Ocean, SST under 10 C, and chlorophyll concentration exceeding 1mg Chlm-3. Based on the conditions under which the model results diverge most, we conclude that current ocean-color-based models are challenged by high-nutrient low-chlorophyll conditions, and extreme temperatures or chlorophyll concentrations. The GCM-based models predict comparable primary production to those based on ocean color: they estimate higher values in the Southern Ocean, at low SST, and in the equatorial band, while they estimate lower values in eutrophic regions (probably because the area of high chlorophyll concentrations is smaller in the GCMs). Further progress in primary production modeling requires improved understanding of the effect of temperature on photosynthesis and better parameterization of the maximum photosynthetic rate.

Yamanaka, Yasuhiro↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

Abstract. Future climate projections from Earth system models (ESMs) typically focus on the timescale of this century. We use a set of five ESMs and one Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) to explore the dynamics of the Earth's climate and carbon cycles under contrasting emissions trajectories beyond this century to the year 2300. The trajectories include a very-high-emissions, unmitigated fossil-fuel-driven scenario, as well as a mitigation scenario that diverges from the first scenario after 2040 and features an “overshoot”, followed by a decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations by means of large net negative CO2 emissions. In both scenarios and for all models considered here, the terrestrial system switches from being a net sink to either a neutral state or a net source of carbon, though for different reasons and centered in different geographic regions, depending on both the model and the scenario. The ocean carbon system remains a sink, albeit weakened by carbon cycle feedbacks, in all models under the high-emissions scenario and switches from sink to source in the overshoot scenario. The global mean temperature anomaly is generally proportional to cumulative carbon emissions, with a deviation from proportionality in the overshoot scenario that is governed by the zero emissions commitment. Additionally, 23rd century warming continues after the cessation of carbon emissions in several models in the high-emissions scenario and in one model in the overshoot scenario. While ocean carbon cycle responses qualitatively agree in both globally integrated and zonal mean dynamics in both scenarios, the land models qualitatively disagree in zonal mean dynamics, in the relative roles of vegetation and soil in driving C fluxes, in the response of the sink to CO2, and in the timing of the sink–source transition, particularly in the high-emissions scenario. The lack of agreement among land models on the mechanisms and geographic patterns of carbon cycle feedbacks, alongside the potential for lagged physical climate dynamics to cause warming long after CO2 concentrations have stabilized, points to the possibility of surprises in the climate system beyond the 21st century time horizon, even under relatively mitigated global warming scenarios, which should be taken into consideration when setting global climate policy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2002

Estimate of Top-of-Atmosphere Albedo for a Molecular Atmosphere over Ocean using Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Measurements

The shortwave broadband albedo at the top of a molecular atmosphere over ocean between 40deg N and 40deg S is estimated using radiance measurements from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and the Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS) aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The albedo monotonically increases from 0.059 at a solar zenith angle of 10deg to 0.107 at a solar zenith angle of 60deg. The estimated uncertainty in the albedo is 3.5 x 10(exp -3) caused by the uncertainty in CERES-derived irradiances, uncertainty in VIRS-derived aerosol optical thicknesses, variations in ozone and water vapor, and variations in surface wind speed. The estimated uncertainty is similar in magnitude to the standard deviation of 0.003 that is derived from 72 areas divided by 20deg latitude by 20deg longitude grid boxes. The empirically estimated albedo is compared with the modeled albedo using a radiative transfer model combined with an ocean surface bidirectional reflectivity model. The modeled albedo with standard tropical atmosphere is 0.061 and 0.111 at the solar zenith angles of 10deg and 60deg, respectively. This empirically estimated albedo can be used to estimate the direct radiative effect of aerosols at the top of the atmosphere over oceans.

Kato, S.↗

NASA NTRS1980

The role of Ekman flow and planetary waves in the oceanic cross-equatorial heat transport

A numerical model is used to mechanistically simulate the oceans' seasonal cross-equatorial heat transport. The basic process of Ekman pumping and drift is able to account for a large amount of the cross-equatorial flux. Increased easterly wind stress in the winter hemisphere causes Ekman surface drift poleward, while decreased easterly stress allows a reduction in the poleward drift in the summer hemisphere. The addition of planetary and gravity waves to this model does not alter the net cross-equatorial flow, although the planetary waves are clearly seen. On comparison with Oort and Vonder Haar (1976), this adiabatic advective redistribution of heat is seen to be plausible up to 10-20 deg N, beyond which other dynamics and thermodynamics are indicated.

Schopf, P. S.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Surface Water Mass Transformation in the Southern Ocean: The Role of Eddies Revisited

The water mass transformation (WMT) framework describes how water of one class, such as a discrete interval of density, is converted into another class via air–sea fluxes or interior mixing processes. Here, this paper investigates how this process is modified at the surface when mesoscale ocean eddies are present, using a state-of-the-art high-resolution climate model with reasonable fidelity in the Southern Ocean. The method employed is to coarse-grain the high-resolution model fields to remove eddy signatures, and compare the results with those from the full model fields. This method shows that eddies reduced the WMT by 2–4 Sv (10%–20%; 1 Sv ≡ 10 6 m 3 s −1 ) over a wide range of densities, from typical values of 20 Sv in the smoothed case. The corresponding water mass formation was reduced by 40% at one particular density increment, namely, between 1026.4 and 1026.5 kg m −3 , which corresponds to the lighter end of the range of Indian Ocean Mode Water in the model. The effect of eddies on surface WMT is decomposed into three terms: direct modulation of the density outcrops, then indirectly, by modifying the air–sea density flux, and the combined effect of the two, akin to a covariance. It is found that the first and third terms dominate, i.e., smoothing the outcrops alone has a significant effect, as does the combination of smoothing both outcrops and density flux distributions, but smoothing density flux fields alone has little effect. Results from the coarse-graining method are compared to an alternative approach of temporally averaging the data. Implications for climate model resolution are also discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Propagation of the MJO and Associated Moist Dynamics, and the Advantages of Enhanced Resolution in NASA’s GEOS-S2S Forecast System

This presentation explores how reliably the NASA’s new subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast system represents the key features of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This system is a fully coupled global model that includes the components of atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice. The model runs at an approximate spatial resolution of 0.5 degree for the atmosphere and 0.25 degree for the ocean. It employs a two-moment cloud microphysics to enable aerosol-cloud interaction and implements a novel atmosphere-ocean interface layer to enhance the representation of the diurnal warm and cool-skin layer.

Young-Kwon Lim↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Propagation of the MJO and Associated Moist Dynamics, and the Advantages of Enhanced Resolution in NASA’s GEOS-S2S Forecast System

Young-Kwon Lim↗

NASA NTRS2013

Insights into Spatial Sensitivities of Ice Mass Response to Environmental Change from the SeaRISE Ice Sheet Modeling Project I: Antarctica

Atmospheric, oceanic, and subglacial forcing scenarios from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) project are applied to six three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet models to assess Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity over a 500 year timescale and to inform future modeling and field studies. Results indicate (i) growth with warming, except within low-latitude basins (where inland thickening is outpaced by marginal thinning); (ii) mass loss with enhanced sliding (with basins dominated by high driving stresses affected more than basins with low-surface-slope streaming ice); and (iii) mass loss with enhanced ice shelf melting (with changes in West Antarctica dominating the signal due to its marine setting and extensive ice shelves; cf. minimal impact in the Terre Adelie, George V, Oates, and Victoria Land region of East Antarctica). Ice loss due to dynamic changes associated with enhanced sliding and/or sub-shelf melting exceeds the gain due to increased precipitation. Furthermore, differences in results between and within basins as well as the controlling impact of sub-shelf melting on ice dynamics highlight the need for improved understanding of basal conditions, grounding-zone processes, ocean-ice interactions, and the numerical representation of all three.

SeaRISE↗

NASA NTRS1988

Controls of CO2 sources and sinks in the earth scale surface ocean - Temperature and nutrients

Several regions in the ocean in which disequilibrium persists on an annual avarage between CO2 in the surface water and the overlying atmosphere were examined using various models in which CO2 does cycle in a steady state at which sources (ocean outgassing) and sinks (ingassing) are in balance. The relative values of the surface temperature and surface nutrients, the two major contributors to the CO2 source and/or sink properties, are determined. Results from models with two ocean surfaces indicate that the sink in the north Atlantic and the sources in the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific are all dominated by the global temperature patterns. Results from ocean models with three surface zones show that, in the equatorial Pacific, the temperature control is responsible for over 50 percent (and, possibly, for almost 70 percent) of the CO2 outgassing, with the balance coming from the earth scale surface nutrient structure.

Volk, Tyler↗

NASA NTRS1993

State-of-the-art satellite laser range modeling for geodetic and oceanographic applications

Significant improvements have been made in the modeling and accuracy of Satellite Laser Range (SLR) data since the launch of LAGEOS in 1976. Some of these include: improved models of the static geopotential, solid-Earth and ocean tides, more advanced atmospheric drag models, and the adoption of the J2000 reference system with improved nutation and precession. Site positioning using SLR systems currently yield approximately 2 cm static and 5 mm/y kinematic descriptions of the geocentric location of these sites. Incorporation of a large set of observations from advanced Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) tracking systems have directly made major contributions to the gravitational fields and in advancing the state-of-the-art in precision orbit determination. SLR is the baseline tracking system for the altimeter bearing TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-1 satellites and thus, will play an important role in providing the Conventional Terrestrial Reference Frame for instantaneously locating the geocentric position of the ocean surface over time, in providing an unchanging range standard for altimeter range calibration, and for improving the geoid models to separate gravitational from ocean circulation signals seen in the sea surface. Nevertheless, despite the unprecedented improvements in the accuracy of the models used to support orbit reduction of laser observations, there still remain systematic unmodeled effects which limit the full exploitation of modern SLR data.

Klosko, Steve M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Observing and Modeling Long-Period Tidal Variations in Polar Motion

By exchanging angular momentum with the solid Earth, ocean tides cause the Earth's rotation to change. While hydrodynamic tide models have been used to study the effect of ocean tides on polar motion, it is shown here that none of the published models can fully account for the observed variations. An empirical ocean tide model is therefore determined by fitting periodic terms at the tidal frequencies to polar motion excitation observations, from which atmospheric and non-tidal oceanic effects were removed. While the empirical ocean tide model does fully account for allof the observed tidal power, tests indicate that the model may not have completely converged. So better models of the effects of ocean tides on polar motion are still needed, both dynamical and empirical.

tides↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Rainfall on Tropical Cyclone-Induced Sea Surface Cooling

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are often accompanied by strong winds and torrential rains. While the winds associated with TCs tend to enhance mixing in the upper-ocean, the freshwater input from rain can stratify the water column and limit mixing. However, the extent to which the stabilizing effect of rainfall can compete with wind-induced mixing, and to what degree it modulates TC-induced sea surface cooling, remains unknown. Here we show, using a suite of observations, that heavy rains under weak TCs can significantly reduce the magnitude of cold wakes induced by them. Additionally, when compared to storms with low rain rates, the ocean surface under TCs with high rain rates freshens significantly and cools less. High-resolution climate model simulations and idealized experiments with an ocean mixed layer model support these results and reveal that oceanic mixing processes are primarily responsible for the reduced cooling under TCs, with a lesser role for surface fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

Oceanic upper mixed layer depth determination by the use of satellite data

A method has been developed to determine the oceanic daily mean mixed layer depth from satellite observations and a mixed layer thermal inertia (MLTI) model. The algorithms were developed to use remotely-sensed values of sea surface temperature, albedo, and surface wind speeds to calculate the thermal inertia and to predict changes in subsurface diurnal mixed layer depth. The MLTI model, based on a mixed layer model of the upper ocean, has been used to simulate the diurnal mixing process and thermal inertia distribution in the Sargasso Sea around 34 deg N, 70 deg W. Sea surface temperature and albedo have been obtained from the NOAA7-AVHRR images. Surface wind speeds have been derived from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) aboard Nimbus 7. Image processing was performed for images gathered between June and July 1982. The daily mean mixed layer depths predicted by the MLTI model agree well with data gathered at the LOTUS mooring located in the Sargasso Sea. This suggests that vertical mixing is the dominant physical process that controls the thermal inertia distribution in the midocean, far from major current systems, and that remote sensing is a promising tool to study such upper ocean processes.

Yan, Xiao-Hai↗

NASA NTRS2001

Optical Measurements and Modeling to Estimate Concentrations and Fluxes of Organic Matter in the Southern Ocean

This project was a collaboration between two Principal Investigators, Dr. Dariusz Stramski and Dr. Greg Mitchell of Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego. Our overall goal was to conduct optical measurements and modeling to estimate concentrations of organic matter in the Southern Ocean in support of the U.S. JGOFS Process Study in this region. Key variables and processes of high relevance to accomplish the JGOFS goals include time and space resolution of phytoplankton pigments, particulate organic carbon, and the formation and export of organic carbon. Our project focused on establishing the fundamental relationships for parameterization of these variables and processes in terms of the optical properties of seawater, and developing understanding of why the Southern Ocean differs from other low-latitude systems, or has differentiation within. Our approach builds upon historical observations that optical properties provide a useful proxy for key reservoirs of organic matter such as chlorophyll alpha (Chl) and particulate organic carbon (POC) concentrations, which are of relevance to the JGOFS objectives. We carried out detailed studies of in situ and water sample optical properties including spectral reflectance, absorption, beam attenuation, scattering, and backscattering coefficients. We evaluated the ability to estimate Chl from the spectral reflectance (ocean color) in the Southern Ocean. We examined relationships between the ocean optical properties and particulate organic carbon. We developed, for the first time, an algorithm for estimating particulate organic carbon concentration in the surface ocean from satellite imagery of ocean color. With this algorithm, we obtained maps of POC distribution in the Southern Ocean showing the seasonal progression of POC in the austral spring-summer season. We also developed a semianalytical reflectance model for the investigated polar waters based on our field measurements of absorption and backscattering coefficients and Chl-dependent parameterizations of these coefficients. With this model, libraries of expected reflectance spectra for various chlorophyll concentrations can be generated with high spectral resolution for specific oceanic regions. In addition, our semianalytical reflectance model provided insight into the mechanisms which drive the empirical relationships between the ocean color and chlorophyll concentration. Our optical approach to the study of pigment and carbon concentrations will be directly relevant to development of system models and long-term monitoring of the Southern Ocean.

Stramski, Dariusz↗

NASA NTRS2004

Multivariate Error Covariance Estimates by Monte-Carlo Simulation for Assimilation Studies in the Pacific Ocean

One of the most difficult aspects of ocean state estimation is the prescription of the model forecast error covariances. The paucity of ocean observations limits our ability to estimate the covariance structures from model-observation differences. In most practical applications, simple covariances are usually prescribed. Rarely are cross-covariances between different model variables used. Here a comparison is made between a univariate Optimal Interpolation (UOI) scheme and a multivariate OI algorithm (MvOI) in the assimilation of ocean temperature. In the UOI case only temperature is updated using a Gaussian covariance function and in the MvOI salinity, zonal and meridional velocities as well as temperature, are updated using an empirically estimated multivariate covariance matrix. Earlier studies have shown that a univariate OI has a detrimental effect on the salinity and velocity fields of the model. Apparently, in a sequential framework it is important to analyze temperature and salinity together. For the MvOI an estimation of the model error statistics is made by Monte-Carlo techniques from an ensemble of model integrations. An important advantage of using an ensemble of ocean states is that it provides a natural way to estimate cross-covariances between the fields of different physical variables constituting the model state vector, at the same time incorporating the model's dynamical and thermodynamical constraints as well as the effects of physical boundaries. Only temperature observations from the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array have been assimilated in this study. In order to investigate the efficacy of the multivariate scheme two data assimilation experiments are validated with a large independent set of recently published subsurface observations of salinity, zonal velocity and temperature. For reference, a third control run with no data assimilation is used to check how the data assimilation affects systematic model errors. While the performance of the UOI and MvOI is similar with respect to the temperature field, the salinity and velocity fields are greatly improved when multivariate correction is used, as evident from the analyses of the rms differences of these fields and independent observations. The MvOI assimilation is found to improve upon the control run in generating the water masses with properties close to the observed, while the UOI failed to maintain the temperature and salinity structure.

Borovikov, Anna↗

NASA NTRS1991

Studies of tropical ocean dynamics using the TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter-derived sea surface topography

Our primary objective is to carry out studies of tropical ocean dynamics using the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter-derived sea level data set in conjunction with the large in situ sea level data set available at the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Sea Level Center. These studies will be supported by an interaction with numerical model simulations of tropical ocean variability. Five specific objectives can be identified: (1) research products; (2) short-term climate variations; (3) tropical-current variations; (4) synoptic-scale variability; and (5) model simulations.

Lukas, Roger↗