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At least 1,315 records · Page 73
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Untangling causality in midlatitude aerosol–cloud adjustments

Aerosol–cloud interactions represent the leading uncertainty in our ability to infer climate sensitivity from the observational record. The forcing from changes in cloud albedo driven by increases in cloud droplet number (Nd) (the first indirect effect) is confidently negative and has narrowed its probable range in the last decade, but the sign and strength of forcing associated with changes in cloud macrophysics in response to aerosol (aerosol–cloud adjustments) remain uncertain. This uncertainty reflects our inability to accurately quantify variability not associated with a causal link flowing from the cloud microphysical state to the cloud macrophysical state. Once variability associated with meteorology has been removed, covariance between the liquid water path (LWP) averaged across cloudy and clear regions (here characterizing the macrophysical state) and Nd (characterizing the microphysical) is the sum of two causal pathways linking Nd to LWP: Nd altering LWP (adjustments) and precipitation scavenging aerosol and thus depleting Nd. Only the former term is relevant to constraining adjustments, but disentangling these terms in observations is challenging. We hypothesize that the diversity of constraints on aerosol–cloud adjustments in the literature may be partly due to not explicitly characterizing covariance flowing from cloud to aerosol and aerosol to cloud. Here, we restrict our analysis to the regime of extratropical clouds outside of low-pressure centers associated with cyclonic activity. Observations from MAC-LWP (Multisensor Advanced Climatology of Liquid Water Path) and MODIS are compared to simulations in the Met Office Unified Model (UM) GA7.1 (the atmosphere model of HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1). The meteorological predictors of LWP are found to be similar between the model and observations. There is also agreement with previous literature on cloud-controlling factors finding that increasing stability, moisture, and sensible heat flux enhance LWP, while increasing subsidence and sea surface temperature decrease it. A simulation where cloud microphysics are insensitive to changes in Nd is used to characterize covariance between Nd and LWP that is induced by factors other than aerosol–cloud adjustments. By removing variability associated with meteorology and scavenging, we infer the sensitivity of LWP to changes in Nd. Application of this technique to UM GA7.1 simulations reproduces the true model adjustment strength. Observational constraints developed using simulated covariability not induced by adjustments and observed covariability between Nd and LWP predict a 25 %–30 % overestimate by the UM GA7.1 in LWP change and a 30 %–35 % overestimate in associated radiative forcing.

Daniel T. McCoy↗
NASA NTRS1981

Space-time spectral structure of a GLAS general circulation model and a comparison with observations

The wavenumber-frequency spectra of geopotential height computed from a winter simulation of a general circulation model are compared with the observed winter spectra averaged over 15 winters. The space and time scales studied include: (1) stationary planetary waves; (2) stationary synoptic-scale waves; (3) low-frequency planetary waves; (4) low frequency synoptic-scale waves; (5) medium-frequency planetary waves; and (6) medium frequency synoptic-scale waves. Variances in these categories are presented and their distributions with latitude and height are discussed.

Straus, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Coronal Magnetic Structures Observing Campaign. 3: Coronal plasma and magnetic field diagnostics derived from multiwaveband active region observations

Simultaneous soft X-ray, microwave, and photospheric magnetic field observations were taken during the Coronal Magnetic Structures Observing Campaign (CoMStOC '87). The plasma electron temperature and emission measures determined from the X-ray data are used to predict the free-free emission expected at 20 and 6 cm. Comparing these predictions with the microwave observations, it is found that the predicted 20 cm brightness temperatures are higher than the observed, requiring cool absorbing material between the hot X-ray plasma and the observer. The model that is most consistent with all the observations and minimizes the required coronal fields indicates that this 20 cm emission is either free-free or a combination of free-free and fourth harmonic cyclotron emanating from the X-ray plasma with an electron temperature of approximately 3.1 x 10(exp 6) K and an emission measure of approximately 1.3 x 10(exp 29)/cm(exp 5). The observed 20 cm polarization requires a field strength of greater than or equal to 150 G. In addition, the 6 cm emission is free-free, emanating from cooler plasma with an electron temperature of approximately 1.5 x 10(exp 6) K and an emission measure of approximately 3-6 x 10(exp 29)/cm(exp 5). This model is consistent with the rather unusual combination of high 20 cm and low 6 cm polarization as well as the low extrapolated coronal fields.

Schmelz, J. T.↗
DOE OSTI2022

The role of information structures in game-theoretic multi-agent learning

Multi-agent learning (MAL) studies how agents learn to behave optimally and adaptively from their experience when interacting with other agents in dynamic environments. The outcome of a MAL process is jointly determined by all agents’ decision-making. Hence, each agent needs to think strategically about others’ sequential moves, when planning future actions. The strategic interactions among agents makes MAL go beyond the direct extension of single-agent learning to multiple agents. With the strategic thinking, each agent aims to build a subjective model of others decision-making using its observations. Such modeling is directly influenced by agents’ perception during the learning process, which is called the information structure of the agent’s learning. As it determines the input to MAL processes, information structures play a significant role in the learning mechanisms of the agents. This review creates a taxonomy of MAL and establishes a unified and systematic way to understand MAL from the perspective of information structures. Here we define three fundamental components of MAL: the information structure (i.e., what the agent can observe), the belief generation (i.e., how the agent forms a belief about others based on the observations), as well as the policy generation (i.e., how the agent generates its policy based on its belief). In addition, this taxonomy enables the classification of a wide range of state-of-the-art algorithms into four categories based on the belief-generation mechanisms of the opponents, including stationary, conjectured, calibrated, and sophisticated opponents. We introduce Value of Information (VoI) as a metric to quantify the impact of different information structures on MAL. Finally, we discuss the strengths and limitations of algorithms from different categories and point to promising avenues of future research.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2018

Mid-Fidelity Computational Fluid Dynamics Analysis of the Elytron 4S UAV Concept

The Elytron 4S Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Concept was developed to combine the advantages of fixed- and rotary-wing technology. The 4S Concept is a box-wing configuration with rotors mounted on a centrally located tiltwing. The UAV is intended to be capable of both conventional takeoff and landing (CTOL) and vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL), and is envisioned to excel in UAV performance because of the combined efficiency of fixed-wing aircraft and the hover and VTOL capabilities of regular drones or quadcopters. A mid-fidelity Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) approach using Rotorcraft CFD (RotCFD) is performed to analyze and characterize the performance of the aircraft. The flow field is coupled with a rotor model based on blade-element momentum theory to model the 4S UAV rotors. Turbulence is modeled using a realizable k- turbulence model with special wall function. The code is used to generate aerodynamic forces and moments on the body at cruise conditions, and during VTOL. The results and their uncertainties are characterized, and an angle- of-attack and sideslip sweep are computed, both with and without rotors on. Simulations are compared with the wind tunnel tests in the 7- by 10-Foot U.S. Army Wind Tunnel at NASA Ames Research Center, performed in 2017. Results show promising comparison with experimental data, despite a late change in rotor size and rudder size of the physical model that cause the expected deviations from the simulation. A slight change in the net thrust value, when rotors are modeled, is observed because of the rotor diameter increase on the physical model. A noticeable difference in the directional stability was observed because of the increased rudder surface and added strakes. These changes were implemented to improve on the design as simulated, which is observed in the results. The simulation results paved the way to the first successful flight of the UAV Concept.

Koning, Witold J. K.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Observational data needs useful for modeling the coma

A computer model of comet comae is described; results from assumed composition of frozen gases are summarized and compared to coma observations. Restrictions on relative abundance of some frozen constituents are illustrated. Modeling, when tightly coupled to observational data, can be important for comprehensive analysis of observations, for predicting undetected molecular species and for improved understanding of coma and nucleus. To accomplish this, total gas production rates and relative elemental abundances of H:C:N:O:S are needed as a function of heliocentric distance of the comet. Also needed are relative column densitites and column density profiles with well defined diaphragm range and pointing position on the coma. Production rates are less desirable since they are model dependent. Total number (or upper limits) of molecules in the coma and analysis of unidentified spectral lines are needed also.

Huebner, W. F.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Estimations of model parameters for gravity wave spectra observed by MST radar

The general theory of MST radar observations of gravity wave spectra is developed. This effort extends the previous results to include anisotropy and Doppler effects for the spectra, as well as the consequences for the multibeam configuration. The relationships between the observed one- or two-dimensional spectra for the line-of-sight velocity in the gravity wave spectra are derived. Expressions for cross spectra, as well as covariances between velocities observed on different beams, are computed. Using these results, studies are carried out to show how model parameters for gravity wave spectra can be estimated from the observed quantities. Model parameters include the variance, power law indices, anisotropy parameters, Doppler parameters, mean scale sizes, etc. Cases with different numbers of beams are investigated.

Scheffler, A. O.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scientific challenges to characterizing the wind resource in the marine atmospheric boundary layer

Abstract. With the increasing level of offshore wind energy investment, it is correspondingly important to be able to accurately characterize the wind resource in terms of energy potential as well as operating conditions affecting wind plant performance, maintenance, and lifespan. Accurate resource assessment at a particular site supports investment decisions. Following construction, accurate wind forecasts are needed to support efficient power markets and integration of wind power with the electrical grid. To optimize the design of wind turbines, it is necessary to accurately describe the environmental characteristics, such as precipitation and waves, that erode turbine surfaces and generate structural loads as a complicated response to the combined impact of shear, atmospheric turbulence, and wave stresses. Despite recent considerable progress both in improvements to numerical weather prediction models and in coupling these models to turbulent flows within wind plants, major challenges remain, especially in the offshore environment. Accurately simulating the interactions among winds, waves, wakes, and their structural interactions with offshore wind turbines requires accounting for spatial (and associated temporal) scales from O(1 m) to O(100 km). Computing capabilities for the foreseeable future will not be able to resolve all of these scales simultaneously, necessitating continuing improvement in subgrid-scale parameterizations within highly nonlinear models. In addition, observations to constrain and validate these models, especially in the rotor-swept area of turbines over the ocean, remains largely absent. Thus, gaining sufficient understanding of the physics of atmospheric flow within and around wind plants remains one of the grand challenges of wind energy, particularly in the offshore environment. This paper provides a review of prominent scientific challenges to characterizing the offshore wind resource using as examples phenomena that occur in the rapidly developing wind energy areas off the United States. Such phenomena include horizontal temperature gradients that lead to strong vertical stratification; consequent features such as low-level jets and internal boundary layers; highly nonstationary conditions, which occur with both extratropical storms (e.g., nor'easters) and tropical storms; air–sea interaction, including deformation of conventional wind profiles by the wave boundary layer; and precipitation with its contributions to leading-edge erosion of wind turbine blades. The paper also describes the current state of modeling and observations in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and provides specific recommendations for filling key current knowledge gaps.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1992

Mars seasonal CO2 ice lifetimes and the angular dependence of albedo

The albedo of the polar caps on Mars brightens appreciably at high solar zenith angle (Warren et al., J. Geophys. Res., 95, 14717, 1990), an effect not included in prior polar-cap energy-balance models. This decreases absorption of sunlight by the polar cap, hence decreasing sublimation of CO2 ice. Lindner (J. Geophys. Res., 95, 1367, 1990) has shown that the radiative effects of clouds and airborne dust will increase sublimation of CO2 ice over that predicted by prior polar-cap energy-balance models. Furthermore, observations hint that more clouds may exist in the Northern Hemisphere, which Lindner (1990) has shown would sublime CO2 ice more quickly in the north than in the south. I show here that the effects of the solar zenith angle dependence of albedo and the radiative effects of clouds and dust offset each other, but act to extend the lifetime of CO2 ice on the south pole more than on the north pole, possibly explaining the observed hemispherical asymmetry in the residual polar caps without the need of a hemispherical asymmetry in polar-cap albedo required by prior models. Another positive aspect of this solution is that neither the inclusion of the solar zenith angle dependence of albedo nor the radiative effects of clouds and dust should appreciably change prior model agreement with observations of the annual cycle of surface pressure and the recession of the polar caps equatorward of 75 degrees latitude.

Lindner, Bernhard Lee↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology models in ATS (v0.88) against observations from a polygonal tundra site

Numerical simulations are essential tools for understanding the complex hydrologic response of Arctic regions to a warming climate. However, strong coupling among thermal and hydrological processes on the surface and in the subsurface and the significant role that subtle variations in surface topography have in regulating flow direction and surface storage lead to significant uncertainties. Careful model evaluation against field observations is thus important to build confidence.We evaluate the integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology models in the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) against field observations from polygonal tundra at the Barrow Environmental Observatory. ATS couples a multiphase, 3D representation of subsurface thermal hydrology with representations of overland nonisothermal flows, snow processes, and surface energy balance. We simulated thermal hydrology of a 3D ice-wedge polygon with geometry that is abstracted but broadly consistent with the surface microtopography at our study site. The simulations were forced by meteorological data and observed water table elevations in ice-wedge polygon troughs. With limited calibration of parameters appearing in the soil evaporation model, the 3-year simulations agreed reasonably well with snow depth, summer water table elevations in the polygon center, and high-frequency soil temperature measurements at several depths in the trough, rim, and center of the polygon. Upscaled evaporation is in good agreement with flux tower observations. The simulations were found to be sensitive to parameters in the bare soil evaporation model, snowpack, and the lateral saturated hydraulic conductivity.Timing of fall freeze-up was found to be sensitive to initial snow density, illustrating the importance of including snow aging effects. The study provides new support for an emerging class of integrated surface/subsurface permafrost simulators.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Flood hazard model calibration using multiresolution model output

Riverine floods pose a considerable risk to many communities. Improving flood hazard projections has the potential to inform the design and implementation of flood risk management strategies. Current flood hazard projections are uncertain, especially due to uncertain model parameters. Calibration methods use observations to quantify model parameter uncertainty. With limited computational resources, researchers typically calibrate models using either relatively few expensive model runs at high spatial resolutions or many cheaper runs at lower spatial resolutions. This leads to an open question: is it possible to effectively combine information from the high and low resolution model runs? We propose a Bayesian emulation–calibration approach that assimilates model outputs and observations at multiple resolutions. As a case study for a riverine community in Pennsylvania, we demonstrate our approach using the LISFLOOD-FP flood hazard model. Here, the multiresolution approach results in improved parameter inference over the single resolution approach in multiple scenarios. Results vary based on the parameter values and the number of available models runs. Our method is general and can be used to calibrate other high dimensional computer models to improve projections.

multiresolution↗
NASA NTRS1985

Systematic estimation of forecast and observation error covariances in four-dimensional data assimilation

A two-part algorithm is presented for reliably computing weather forecast model and observational error covariances during data assimilation. Data errors arise from instrumental inaccuracies and sub-grid scale variability, whereas forecast errors occur because of modeling errors and the propagation of previous analysis errors. A Kalman filter is defined as the primary algorithm for estimating the forecast and analysis error convariance matrices. A second algorithm is described for quantifying the noise covariance matrices of any degree to obtain accurate values for the observational error covariances. Numerical results are provided from a linearized one-dimensional shallow-water model. The results cover observational noise covariances, initial instrumental errors and erroneous model values.

Dee, D. P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Abstract. Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

Earth system dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2021

C-FOG: Life of Coastal Fog

C-FOG is a comprehensive bi-national project dealing with the formation, persistence, and dissipation (life cycle) of fog in coastal areas (coastal fog) controlled by land, marine, and atmospheric processes. Given its inherent complexity, coastal-fog literature has mainly focused on case studies, and there is a continuing need for research that integrates across processes (e.g., air–sea–land interactions, environmental flow, aerosol transport, and chemistry), dynamics (two-phase flow and turbulence), microphysics (nucleation, droplet characterization), and thermodynamics (heat transfer and phase changes) through field observations and modeling. Central to C-FOG was a field campaign in eastern Canada from 1 September to 8 October 2018, covering four land sites in Newfoundland and Nova Scotia and an adjacent coastal strip transected by the Research Vessel Hugh R. Sharp . An array of in situ, path-integrating, and remote sensing instruments gathered data across a swath of space–time scales relevant to fog life cycle. Satellite and reanalysis products, routine meteorological observations, numerical weather prediction model (WRF and COAMPS) outputs, large-eddy simulations, and phenomenological modeling underpin the interpretation of field observations in a multiscale and multiplatform framework that helps identify and remedy numerical model deficiencies. An overview of the C-FOG field campaign and some preliminary analysis/findings are presented in this paper.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Observational constraints on interstellar dust models

No single model has been able to account for all of the observed spectroscopic properties of interstellar or circumstellar dust. The reason for this is that, despite the agreement that the grains are composed of silicaceous/metal oxide and carbonaceous material, there is strong disagreement as to their exact structure and composition. This led Draine and Lee (1984) to use interstellar extinction data to define an interstellar graphitic material; new observational findings have made even that identification uncertain. But the great advantage of their approach is that they used observations at all of the wavelengths available to define the material. Here, the authors attempt a variation of that approach. They examine recent UV and IR data and attempt to put constraints on the possible types of interstellar grain composition, and to connect these constraints with grain models. A summary of some of the important constraints imposed by the observations is given.

Hecht, James H.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Use of Physics to Improve Solar Forecast: Physics-Informed Persistence Models for Simultaneously Forecasting GHI, DNI, and DHI

Observation-based statistical models have been widely used in forecasting solar energy; however, existing models often lack a clear relation to physics and are limited largely to global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts over relatively short time horizons (< 1 hour). Incorporating physics into observation-based models, increasing forecast time horizons and developing a model system for forecasting not only GHI but also direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) remain challenging, especially under cloudy conditions because of complex cloud-radiation interactions. This work attempts to address these challenges by developing a hierarchy of four new physics-informed persistence models that can be used to simultaneously forecast GHI, DNI and DHI. The decade-long measurements (1998 to 2014) at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)'s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility site are used to evaluate the performance of the new models. Overall, the results show that the new physics-informed forecast models generally outperform the simple and smart persistence models, and improve the forecast accuracy at lead times from 1.25 hours up to 6 hours. Further analysis reveals that the forecast error is highly related to the error and temporal variability of the assumed cloud predictor. The best model for forecasting different radiative components can be explained by the relationship between solar irradiances and cloud properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A model of randomly-coupled Pauli spins

Abstract We construct a model of Pauli spin operators with all-to-all 4-local interactions by replacing Majorana fermions in the SYK model with spin operators. Equivalently, we replace fermions with hard-core bosons. We study this model numerically and compare the properties with those of the SYK model. We observe a striking quantitative coincidence between the spin model and the SYK model, which suggests that this spin model is strongly chaotic and, perhaps, can play some role in holography. We also discuss the path-integral approach with multi-local fields and the possibility of quantum simulations. This model may be an interesting target for quantum simulations because Pauli spins are easier to implement than fermions on qubit-based quantum devices.

Physics↗