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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

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DOE OSTI2014

Adaptive approximation of higher order posterior statistics

Filtering is an approach for incorporating observed data into time-evolving systems. Instead of a family of Dirac delta masses that is widely used in Monte Carlo methods, we here use the Wiener chaos expansion for the parametrization of the conditioned probability distribution to solve the nonlinear filtering problem. The Wiener chaos expansion is not the best method for uncertainty propagation without observations. Nevertheless, the projection of the system variables in a fixed polynomial basis spanning the probability space might be a competitive representation in the presence of relatively frequent observations because the Wiener chaos approach not only leads to an accurate and efficient prediction for short time uncertainty quantification, but it also allows to apply several data assimilation methods that can be used to yield a better approximate filtering solution. The aim of the present paper is to investigate this hypothesis. We answer in the affirmative for the (stochastic) Lorenz-63 system based on numerical simulations in which the uncertainty quantification method and the data assimilation method are adaptively selected by whether the dynamics is driven by Brownian motion and the near-Gaussianity of the measure to be updated, respectively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Observing dynamical friction in galaxy clusters

We present a novel method to detect the effects of dynamical friction in observed galaxy clusters. Following accretion into clusters, massive satellite galaxies will backsplash to systematically smaller radii than less massive satellites, an effect that may be detected by stacking the number density profiles of galaxies around clusters. We show that this effect may be understood using a simple toy model which reproduces the trends with halo properties observed in simulations. We search for this effect using SDSS redMaPPer clusters with richness 10 < λ < 20, and find that bright ( M {sub i} < −21.5) satellites have smaller splashback radii than fainter ( M {sub i} > −20) satellites at 99% confidence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cryo-EM visualization of viruses from partially irrigated soils

Viruses are numerically the most abundant forms on Earth, and most are present in soil. Even though viruses are highly abundant in soil and critical to rhizosphere function, visualizing the diverse morphotypes within soil has been challenging. The difficulty is primarily due to the heterogenous nature of isolated suspensions that typically contain nanometer to micron scale debris which renders protein crystallography for structural studies unfeasible and hinders cryo-electron microscopy due to ice thickness and contrast issues. Here we employed and compared a simple spin filtration method to cleanup solutions of extracted viruses for direct observation with cryo-electron microscopy. The method employs common physical biochemical separation steps to remove large and small debris which dramatically improves image quality and preservation of structural features to permit visualizing morphotypes not typically seen with conventional negative stain approaches. In addition to tailed and non-tailed polyhedral phages, several under reported or novel morphotypes of soil viruses are directly visualized as a particle library with both 2D and 3D information.

cryo-EM↗

DOE OSTI2024

ROSE: A reduced-order scattering emulator for optical models

A new generation of phenomenological optical potentials requires robust calibration and uncertainty quantification, motivating the use of Bayesian statistical methods. These Bayesian methods usually require calculating observables for thousands or even millions of parameter sets, making fast and accurate emulators highly desirable or even essential. Emulating scattering across different energies or with interactions such as optical potentials is challenging because of the nonaffine parameter dependence, meaning the parameters do not all factorize from individual operators. Here we introduce and demonstrate the reduced-order scattering emulator ( ROSE ) framework, a reduced basis emulator that can handle nonaffine problems. ROSE is fully extensible and works within the publicly available band framework software suite for calibration, model mixing, and experimental design. As a demonstration problem, we use ROSE to calibrate a realistic nucleon-target scattering model through the calculation of elastic cross sections. This problem shows the practical value of the ROSE framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification with controlled trade-offs between emulator speed and accuracy as compared to high-fidelity solvers. Finally, planned extensions of ROSE are discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Flare heating and ionization of the low solar chromosphere. I - Inversion methods for Mg I 4571 and 5173

Various methods of inverting solar Mg I 4571 and 5173 spectral line observations are examined to find the best method of using these lines to calculate the vertical temperature and electron density structure around the temperature minimum region. Following a perturbation analysis by Mein (1971), a Fredholm integral equation of the first kind is obtained which can be inverted to yield these temperature and density structures as a function of time. Several inversion methods are tested and compared. The methods are used to test data as well as to a subset of observations of these absorption lines taken on February 3, 1986 before and during a solar flare. A small but significant increase is found in the temperature and a relatively large increase in the electron density during this flare. The observations are inconsistent with heating and ionization by an intense beam of electrons and with ionization by UV photoionization of Si I.

Metcalf, Thomas R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Observational constraints on the tilted flat-XCDM and the untilted nonflat XCDM dynamical dark energy inflation parameterizations

In this work, we constrain tilted spatially-flat and untilted nonflat XCDM dynamical dark energy inflation parameterizations using Planck 2015 cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy data and recent baryonic acoustic oscillations distance measurements, Type Ia supernovae data, Hubble parameter observations, and growth rate measurements. Inclusion of the four non-CMB data sets results in a significant strengthening of the evidence for nonflatness in the nonflat XCDM model from 1.1σ for the CMB data alone to 3.4σ for the full data combination. In this untilted nonflat XCDM case the data favor a spatially-closed model in which spatial curvature contributes a little less than a percent of the current cosmological energy budget; they also mildly favor dynamical dark energy over a cosmological constant at 1.2σ. These data are also better fit by the flat-XCDM parameterization than by the standard ΛCDM model, but only at 0.3σ significance. Current data is unable to rule out dark energy dynamics. The nonflat XCDM parameterization is compatible with the Dark Energy Survey limits on the present value of the rms mass fluctuations amplitude (σ 8 ) as a function of the present value of the nonrelativistic matter density parameter (Ω m ). Furthermore, it does not provide as good a fit to the higher multipole CMB temperature anisotropy data as does the standard tilted flat-ΛCDM model. A number of measured cosmological parameter values differ significantly when determined using the tilted flat-XCDM and the nonflat XCDM parameterizations, including the baryonic matter density parameter and the reionization optical depth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2014

Using Lunar Observations to Validate In-Flight Calibrations of Clouds and Earth Radiant Energy System Instruments

The validation of in-orbit instrument performance requires stability in both instrument and calibration source. This paper describes a method of validation using lunar observations scanning near full moon by the Clouds and Earth Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments. Unlike internal calibrations, the Moon offers an external source whose signal variance is predictable and non-degrading. From 2006 to present, in-orbit observations have become standardized and compiled for the Flight Models-1 and -2 aboard the Terra satellite, for Flight Models-3 and -4 aboard the Aqua satellite, and beginning 2012, for Flight Model-5 aboard Suomi-NPP. Instrument performance parameters which can be gleaned are detector gain, pointing accuracy and static detector point response function validation. Lunar observations are used to examine the stability of all three detectors on each of these instruments from 2006 to present. This validation method has yielded results showing trends per CERES data channel of 1.2% per decade or less.

Daniels, Janet L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The determination of the mass and mean density of Enceladus from its observed shape

Application of limb-fitting methods to the 11 best Voyager 2 images of Enceladus has shown that the shape of this satellite is closely represented by a triaxial ellipsoid. The observed ratio of the differences of the principal axes F = (b - c)/(a - c) is 0.23 (sup +0.04 sub - 0.01), consisting with the value F = 0.23 expected for a synchronously rotating satellite in hydrostatic equilibrium. We also deduce from the Voyager observations, after allowing for limb topography, that the mean radius of the satellite is 249.4 +/- 0.2 km. For satellites of known mass, measurement of the size and shape leads to a determination of the satellite's mean density and moment of inertial. We have used this method to determine the moments of inertia of Mimas (1988) and Tethys (1991). Enceladus appears to be hydrostatically relaxed, making it an ideal candidate for this type of analysis. However, none of the Pioneer or Voyager spacecraft had a close encounter with this satellite and thus its mass is effectively unknown. Enceladus is trapped in a 2:1 orbit-orbit resonance with Dione, but the amplitudes of libration are too small to allow a useful mass determination. Using the observed shape alone, without any other assumptions other than that the satellite is in hydrostatic equilibrium at its present orbital radius, we place an upper bound on the mean density of 1.12 +/- 0.05 g/cu cm. Thus, the mean density of Enceladus is probably little more than that of water-ice and we conclude that this satellite is markedly deficient in rock. If the mass of a satellite is unknown, but the satellite is differentiated and has a deep mantle of known composition, then we show that measurement of the shape alone can lead to a determination of the satellite's mass, mean density, and moment of inertia. Application of this method to Enceladus, assuming that the satellite has a deep mantle of water-ice of density 0.93 g/cu cm, gives the result that the mean density of the satellite is 1.00 +/- 0.03 g/cu cm. This result fills the one remaining gap in our knowledge of the structure of the Saturnian satellite system. We now know the mean densities of all the primary Saturnian satellites in the sequence from the coorbital satellites, Janus and Epimetheus, through to the outer satellite Iapetus (the densities of the small, secondary satellites in Trojan-type orbits are still unknown). The Saturnian system possesses two striking features. (1) Because of significant porosity, the mean material densities of the satellites Janus, Epimetheus, and Mimas could be substantially greater than the apparent mean densities of these satellies. (2) The densities of the satellites are not correlated with their distances from the planet; in particular, the satellites Enceladus and Tethys have lower mean densities than their interior and exterior neighbors, Mimas and Dione. This may be the result of gross postformation redistribution of rock and ice, possibly due to satellite disruptions are suggested by Smith et al. (1982).

Dermott, Stanley F.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Can liquid cloud microphysical processes be used for vertically pointing cloud radar calibration?

Cloud radars are unique instruments for observing cloud processes, but uncertainties in radar calibration have frequently limited data quality. Thus far, no single robust method exists for assessing the calibration of past cloud radar data sets. Here, we investigate whether observations of microphysical processes in liquid clouds such as the transition of cloud droplets to drizzle drops can be used to calibrate cloud radars. Specifically, we study the relationships between the radar reflectivity factor and three variables not affected by absolute radar calibration: the skewness of the radar Doppler spectrum ( γ ), the radar mean Doppler velocity ( W ), and the liquid water path (LWP). For each relation, we evaluate the potential for radar calibration. For γ and W , we use box model simulations to determine typical radar reflectivity values for reference points. We apply the new methods to observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites North Slope of Alaska (NSA) and Oliktok Point (OLI) in 2016 using two 35 GHz K a -band ARM Zenith Radars (KAZR). For periods with a sufficient number of liquid cloud observations, we find that liquid cloud processes are robust enough for cloud radar calibration, with the LWP-based method performing best. We estimate that, in 2016, the radar reflectivity at NSA was about 1±1  dB too low but stable. For OLI, we identify serious problems with maintaining an accurate calibration including a sudden decrease of 5 to 7 dB in June 2016.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1988

Cosmological parameters and evolution of the galaxy luminosity function

The relationship between the observed distribution of discrete sources of a flux limited sample, the luminosity function of these sources, and the cosmological model is discussed. It is stressed that some assumptions about the form and evolution of the luminosity function must be made in order to determine the cosmological parameters from the observed distribution of sources. Presented is a method to test the validity of these assumptions using the observations. It is shown how, using higher moments of the observed distribution, one can determine, independently of the cosmological model, all parameters of the luminosity function except those describing evolution of the density and the luminosity of the luminosity function. These methods are applied to the sample of approximately 1000 galaxies recently used by Loh and Spillar to determine a value of the cosmological density parameter Omega approx = 1. It is shown that the assumptions made by Loh and Spillar about the luminosity function are inconsistent with the data, and that a self-consistent treatment of the data indicates a lower value of Omega approx = 0.2 and a flatter luminosity function. It should be noted, however, that incompleteness in the sample could cause a flattening of the luminosity function and lower the calculated value of Omega and that uncertainty in the values of these parameters due to random fluctuations is large.

Caditz, David↗

NASA NTRS1989

Cosmological parameters and evolution of the galaxy luminosity function

Caditz, David↗

DOE OSTI2015

Integration of microseismic monitoring data into coupled flow and geomechanical models with ensemble Kalman filter

Abstract Hydraulic stimulation of low‐permeability rocks in enhanced geothermal systems, shale resources, and CO 2 storage aquifers can trigger microseismic events, also known as microearthquakes (MEQs). The distribution of microseismic source locations in the reservoir may reveal important information about the distribution of hydraulic and geomechanical rock properties. In this paper, we present a framework for conditioning heterogeneous rock permeability and geomechanical property distributions on microseismic data. To simulate the multiphysics processes in these systems, we combine a fully coupled flow and geomechanical model with the Mohr‐Coulomb type rock failure criterion. The resulting multiphysics simulation constitutes the forecast model that relates microseismic source locations to reservoir rock properties. We adopt this forward model in an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation framework to jointly estimate reservoir permeability and geomechanical property distributions from injection‐induced microseismic response measurements. We show that integration of a large number of spatially correlated microseismic data with practical ensemble sizes can lead to severe underestimation of ensemble spread, and eventually ensemble collapse. To mitigate the variance underestimation issue, two low‐rank data representation schemes are presented and discussed. In the first approach, microseismic data are projected onto a low‐dimensional subspace defined by the left singular vectors of the perturbed observation matrix. The second method uses a coarser grid for representing the microseismic data. A series of numerical experiments is presented to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods and to illustrate their applicability for assimilating microseismic data into coupled flow and geomechanical forward models to estimate multiphysics rock properties.

Tarrahi, Mohammadali↗

DOE OSTI2017

The coastal streamflow flux in the Regional Arctic System Model

The coastal streamflow flux from the Arctic drainage basin is an important driver of dynamics in the coupled ice-ocean system. Comprising more than one third of the total freshwater flux into the Arctic Ocean, streamflow is a key component of the regional and global freshwater cycle. To better represent the coupling of the streamflow flux to the ocean, we have developed and applied the RVIC streamflow routing model within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM). The RASM is a high-resolution regional Earth System Model whose domain includes all of the Arctic drainage basin. Here in this paper, we introduce the RVIC streamflow routing model, detailing its application within RASM and its advancements in terms of representing high-resolution streamflow processes. We evaluate model simulated streamflow relative to in situ observations and demonstrate a method for improving model performance using a simple optimization procedure. We also present a new, spatially and temporally consistent, high-resolution data set of coastal freshwater fluxes for the Arctic drainage basin and surrounding areas that is based on a fully coupled RASM simulation and intended for use in Arctic Ocean modeling applications. This data set is evaluated relative to other coastal streamflow data sets commonly used by the ocean modeling community. We demonstrate that the RASM-simulated streamflow flux better represents the annual cycle than existing data sets, especially in ungauged areas. Finally, we assess the impact that streamflow has on the coupled ice-ocean system, finding that the presence of streamflow leads to reduced sea surface salinity, increased sea surface temperatures, and decreased sea ice thickness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Application of Pulse Radiolysis to Mechanistic Investigations of Catalysis Relevant to Artificial Photosynthesis

Taking inspiration from natural photosystems, the goal of artificial photosynthesis is to harness solar energy to convert abundant materials, such as CO 2 and H 2 O, into solar fuels. Catalysts are required to ensure that the necessary redox half-reactions proceed in the most energy-efficient manner. It is thus critical to gain a detailed mechanistic understanding of these catalytic reactions in order to develop new and improved catalysts. Many of the key catalytic intermediates are short-lived transient species, requiring time-resolved spectroscopic techniques for their observation. The two main methods for rapidly generating such species on the sub-microsecond timescale are laser flash photolysis and pulse radiolysis. These methods complement one another, and both can provide important spectroscopic and kinetic information. However, pulse radiolysis proves to be superior in systems with significant spectroscopic overlap between photosensitizer and other species present during the reaction. In this paper, we review the pulse radiolysis technique and how it has been applied to mechanistic investigations of half-reactions relevant to artificial photosynthesis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scalar QED as a toy model for higher-order effects in classical gravitational scattering

Quantum Electrodynamics (QED) serves as a useful toy model for classical observables in gravitational two-body systems with reduced complexity due to the linearity of QED. We investigate scattering observables in scalar QED at the sixth order in the charges (two-loop order) in a classical regime analogous to the post-Minkowskian expansion in General Relativity. We employ modern scattering amplitude tools and extract classical observables by both eikonal methods and the formalism of Kosower, Maybee, and O’Connell (KMOC). In addition, we provide a simplified approach to extracting the radial action beyond the conservative sector.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2017

Stratigraphic and structural controls on groundwater flow in an outcropping fossil fan delta: the case of Sant Llorenç del Munt range (NE Spain)

Hydrogeological models of mountain regions present the opportunity to understand the role of geological factors on groundwater resources. The effects of sedimentary facies and fracture distribution on groundwater flow and resource exploitation studied in the ancient fan delta of Sant Llorenç de Munt (central Catalonia, Spain) by integrating geological field observations (using sequence stratigraphy methods) and hydrogeological data (pumping tests, hydrochemistry and environmental isotopes). A comprehensive analysis of data portrays the massif as a single unit, constituted by different compartments determined by specific layers and sets of fractures. Two distinct flow systems—local and regional—are identified based on pumping test analysis as well as hydrochemical and isotopic data. Drawdown curves derived from pumping tests indicate that the behavior of the saturated layers, whose main porosity is given by the fracture network, corresponds to a confined aquifer. Pumping tests also reflect a double porosity within the system and the occurrence of impervious boundaries that support a compartmentalized model for the whole aquifer system. Hydrochemical data and associated spatial evolution show the result of water–rock interaction along the flow lines. Concentration of magnesium, derived from dolomite dissolution, is a tracer of the flow-path along distinct stratigraphic units. Water stable isotopes indicate that evaporation (near a 5% loss) occurs in a thick unsaturated zone within the massif before infiltration reaches the water table. The hydrogeological analysis of this outcropping system provides a methodology for the conceptualization of groundwater flow in similar buried systems where logging and hydrogeological information are scarce.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Measuring the Hubble constant and spatial curvature from supernova apparent magnitude, baryon acoustic oscillation, and Hubble parameter data

Cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy (spatial inhomogeneity) data provide the tightest constraints on the Hubble constant, matter density, spatial curvature, and dark energy dynamics. Other data, sensitive to the evolution of only the spatially homogeneous part of the cosmological model, such as Type Ia supernova apparent magnitude, baryon acoustic oscillation distance, and Hubble parameter measurements, can be used in conjunction with the CMB data to more tightly constrain parameters. Recent joint analyses of CMB and such non-CMB data indicate that slightly closed spatial hypersurfaces are favored in nonflat untilted inflation models and that dark energy dynamics cannot be ruled out, and favor a smaller Hubble constant. Here, we show that the constraints that follow from these non-CMB data alone are consistent with those that follow from the CMB data alone and so also consistent with, but weaker than, those that follow from the joint analyses of the CMB and non-CMB data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗