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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

Deep Learning Approaches to Surrogates for Solving the Diffusion Equation for Mechanistic Real-World Simulations

In many mechanistic medical, biological, physical, and engineered spatiotemporal dynamic models the numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDEs), especially for diffusion, fluid flow and mechanical relaxation, can make simulations impractically slow. Biological models of tissues and organs often require the simultaneous calculation of the spatial variation of concentration of dozens of diffusing chemical species. One clinical example where rapid calculation of a diffusing field is of use is the estimation of oxygen gradients in the retina, based on imaging of the retinal vasculature, to guide surgical interventions in diabetic retinopathy. Furthermore, the ability to predict blood perfusion and oxygenation may one day guide clinical interventions in diverse settings, i.e., from stent placement in treating heart disease to BOLD fMRI interpretation in evaluating cognitive function (Xie et al., 2019; Lee et al., 2020). Since the quasi-steady-state solutions required for fast-diffusing chemical species like oxygen are particularly computationally costly, we consider the use of a neural network to provide an approximate solution to the steady-state diffusion equation. Machine learning surrogates, neural networks trained to provide approximate solutions to such complicated numerical problems, can often provide speed-ups of several orders of magnitude compared to direct calculation. Surrogates of PDEs could enable use of larger and more detailed models than are possible with direct calculation and can make including such simulations in real-time or near-real time workflows practical. Creating a surrogate requires running the direct calculation tens of thousands of times to generate training data and then training the neural network, both of which are computationally expensive. Often the practical applications of such models require thousands to millions of replica simulations, for example for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification, each of which gains speed from surrogate use and rapidly recovers the up-front costs of surrogate generation. We use a Convolutional Neural Network to approximate the stationary solution to the diffusion equation in the case of two equal-diameter, circular, constant-value sources located at random positions in a two-dimensional square domain with absorbing boundary conditions. Such a configuration caricatures the chemical concentration field of a fast-diffusing species like oxygen in a tissue with two parallel blood vessels in a cross section perpendicular to the two blood vessels. To improve convergence during training, we apply a training approach that uses roll-back to reject stochastic changes to the network that increase the loss function. The trained neural network approximation is about 1000 times faster than the direct calculation for individual replicas. Because different applications will have different criteria for acceptable approximation accuracy, we discuss a variety of loss functions and accuracy estimators that can help select the best network for a particular application. We briefly discuss some of the issues we encountered with overfitting, mismapping of the field values and the geometrical conditions that lead to large absolute and relative errors in the approximate solution.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Comparing Machine Learning and Physics-Based Nanoparticle Geometry Determinations Using Far-Field Spectral Properties

Anisotropic metal nanostructures exhibit polarization-dependent light scattering, a property which has been widely studied and exploited to determine orientations of subwavelength structures using far-field microscopy. Here we explore the use of variational autoencoders (VAEs) to determine the geometries of gold nanorods (NRs) such as in-plane orientation and aspect ratio under linearly polarized dark-field illumination in an optical microscope. We enforce a shared latent space to connect two VAEs trained separately with polarized dark-field scattering spectra and electron microscopy images and achieve image prediction (shape, orientation, and size) of Au NRs using only polarized dark-field scattering spectra. We determine the geometrical parameters of orientational angle and aspect ratio quantitatively via both our dual-VAE and physics-based analysis on the input scattering spectra. We show that orientational angle prediction by dual-VAE performs well with only a small (~300 particle) training set, yielding a mean absolute error (MAE) of 14.4° and a concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) of 0.95. This performance is only marginally worse than the physics-based cos(2?) fitting approach between the scattering intensity and the polarizing angle, which achieves MAE of 8.78° and CCC of 0.99. Aspect ratio determination is also comparable for the dual-VAE and physics-based fitting comparison (MAE of 0.21 vs. 0.23 and CCC of 0.53 vs. 0.68). Here, this dual encoder-decoder architecture effectively exploits the structure-property relationships of plasmonic nanostructures to construct a cross-modal machine learning (ML) approach, providing a pathway to employ ML approaches to address other structure-property relationships in materials science.

Dark-field scattering↗

Improving Protein–Ligand Interaction Modeling with cryo-EM Data, Templates, and Deep Learning in 2021 Ligand Model Challenge

Elucidating protein–ligand interaction is crucial for studying the function of proteins and compounds in an organism and critical for drug discovery and design. The problem of protein–ligand interaction is traditionally tackled by molecular docking and simulation, which is based on physical forces and statistical potentials and cannot effectively leverage cryo-EM data and existing protein structural information in the protein–ligand modeling process. In this work, we developed a deep learning bioinformatics pipeline (DeepProLigand) to predict protein–ligand interactions from cryo-EM density maps of proteins and ligands. DeepProLigand first uses a deep learning method to predict the structure of proteins from cryo-EM maps, which is averaged with a reference (template) structure of the proteins to produce a combined structure to add ligands. The ligands are then identified and added into the structure to generate a protein–ligand complex structure, which is further refined. The method based on the deep learning prediction and template-based modeling was blindly tested in the 2021 EMDataResource Ligand Challenge and was ranked first in fitting ligands to cryo-EM density maps. These results demonstrate that the deep learning bioinformatics approach is a promising direction for modeling protein–ligand interactions on cryo-EM data using prior structural information.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning of a Short-Range Bond-Order Potential for Silica: Analytic Embedding of Coordination with Classical Efficiency

Reinforcement learning (RL) has recently emerged as a data-efficient strategy to parametrize short-range interatomic potentials. Building on our past RL optimization of pairwise silica models, we extend the framework to a bond-order (Tersoff-type) potential that provides an analytic embedding of local coordination through a three-body term. A hierarchical RL workflow combining continuous-action Monte Carlo Tree Search and property-based rewards efficiently explores the 26-dimensional parameter space, sequentially optimizing lattice parameters, densities, angles, and cohesive energies of 21 silica polymorphs. The resulting models, Q-Tersoff and ML-Tersoff, reproduce the energetic ordering of low-energy phases and capture the angular correlations and amorphous structure factors of silica with improved fidelity over pairwise force fields, while remaining orders of magnitude faster than high-dimensional machine-learned potentials. Both models underperform for elastic constants and high-energy frameworks, delineating the limits of the current analytic form. The approach establishes a general and interpretable route to angle-aware, short-range potentials that bridge physics-based and machine-learned descriptions of silicate materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Battery aging mode identification across NMC compositions and designs using machine learning

A comprehensive understanding of lithium-ion battery (LiB) lifespan is the key to designing durable batteries and optimizing use protocols. Although battery lifetime prediction methods are flourishing, diagnosis of the root causes of aging and degradation have not yet been well developed nor studied for a broad mixture of designs and use cases. Here, we create a machine-learning (ML)-based framework that distinguishes aging modes using multiple electrochemical signatures recorded cycle-by-cycle. The predominant aging behaviors include a combination of loss of active materials in cathode (LAMPE) and a loss of Li inventory (LLI) in Li plating or solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation, manifested from 44 batteries representing two cathode chemistries, two electrode loadings, and five charging rates. Here, the aging mode classification accuracy is 86% using features within the first 50 cycles and increases to 88% beyond 225 cycles. The same features can quantify the percentage of end-of-life LAMPE with only 4.3% of error.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Using electronic health record metadata to predict housing instability amongst veterans

Housing instability is considered a significant life stressor and preemptive screening should be applied to identify those at risk for homelessness as early as possible so that they can be targeted for specialized care. We developed models to classify patient outcomes for an established VA Homelessness Screening Clinical Reminder (HSCR), which identifies housing instability, in the two months prior to its administration. Logistic Regression and Random Forest models were fit to classify responses using the last 18 months of document activity. We measure concentration of risk across stratifications of predicted probability and observe an enriched likelihood of finding confirmed false negative responses from veterans with diagnosed housing instability. Positive responses were 34 times more likely to be detected within the top 1 % of patients predicted at risk than from those randomly selected. There is a 1 in 4 chance of detecting false negatives within the top 1 % of predicted risk. Machine learning methods can classify between episodes of housing instability using a data-driven approach that does not rely on variables curated from domain experts. This method has the potential to improve clinicians’ ability to identify veterans who are experiencing housing instability but are not captured by HSCR.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A multi-scale pipeline linking drug transcriptomics with pharmacokinetics predicts in vivo interactions of tuberculosis drugs

Tuberculosis (TB) is the deadliest infectious disease worldwide. The design of new treatments for TB is hindered by the large number of candidate drugs, drug combinations, dosing choices, and complex pharmaco-kinetics/dynamics (PK/PD). Here we study the interplay of these factors in designing combination therapies by linking a machine-learning model, INDIGO-MTB, which predicts in vitro drug interactions using drug transcriptomics, with a multi-scale model of drug PK/PD and pathogen-immune interactions called GranSim. We calculate an in vivo drug interaction score (iDIS) from dynamics of drug diffusion, spatial distribution, and activity within lesions against various pathogen sub-populations. The iDIS of drug regimens evaluated against non-replicating bacteria significantly correlates with efficacy metrics from clinical trials. Our approach identifies mechanisms that can amplify synergistic or mitigate antagonistic drug interactions in vivo by modulating the relative distribution of drugs. Our mechanistic framework enables efficient evaluation of in vivo drug interactions and optimization of combination therapies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Aurora Detection From Nighttime Lights for Earth and Space Science Applications

This research leverages data from the Day/Night Band (DNB) of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer (VIIRS) instrument onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite. We demonstrate the value of mining the VIIRS DNB for aurora and describe our use of unsupervised machine learning to create a binary mask for aurora occurrence. This mask can be used to flag aurora-contaminated observations for NASA's nighttime lights products for Earth science applications. The identification of auroral regions can also be used for Space Weather applications, for example, for comparison with aurora forecast model and with other satellite- or ground-based aurora observations. The DNB is a broadband channel that is sensitive to wavelengths from 500 to 900 nm, which covers most of the visible light spectrum, and as the name implies, captures light even at night with a sensitivity at the nanowatt level. This band is suitable for aurora observations since the light emitted by the aurora tends to be dominated by emissions from atomic oxygen, resulting in a greenish glow at a wavelength of 557.7 nm, especially at an altitude of 110 km. This study compares the global nighttime derived aurora regions for 17 and 18 March with the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's (SWPC) probability product for the St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm in 2015. VIIRS sensors are slated to be added to the next generation of polar-orbiting operational satellites. Our novel automated approach to aurora identification opens up an efficient way to leverage this unique data source.

Aurora↗

Exploring new frontiers in type 1 diabetes through advanced mass-spectrometry-based molecular measurements

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a devastating autoimmune disease for which advanced mass spectrometry (MS) methods are increasingly used to identify new biomarkers and better understand underlying mechanisms. For example, integration of MS analysis and machine learning has identified multimolecular biomarker panels. In mechanistic studies, MS has contributed to the discovery of neoepitopes, and pathways involved in disease development and identifying therapeutic targets. However, challenges remain in understanding the role of tissue microenvironments, spatial heterogeneity, and environmental factors in disease pathogenesis. Recent advancements in MS, such as ultra-fast ion-mobility separations, and single-cell and spatial omics, can play a central role in addressing these challenges. Here, in this work, we review recent advancements in MS-based molecular measurements and their role in understanding T1D.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

FAIR Surrogate Benchmarks Supporting AI and Simulation Research (Final Report)

Computational Science is being revolutionized by integrating AI and simulation and, in particular, by deep learning surrogate models that can replace all or part of traditional large‐scale HPC computations. Such surrogates can achieve remarkable performance improvements, as much as several orders of magnitude, and save both compute time and energy. The Surrogate Benchmark Initiative (SBI) project creates a community repository and FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data ecosystem for HPC application surrogate benchmarks. The SBI team comes from Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Indiana University (IU), Rutgers University, the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK), and the University of Virginia (UVA). SBI repositories include data, code, and all relevant collateral artifacts that the science and engineering community need to use and reuse these data sets and surrogates. SBI repositories generate active research from both the participants in SBI and the broad community of AI and domain scientists. This project develops surrogates that use several different neural nets to learn and quickly infer the results of simulations and data systems and captures them as surrogate benchmarks with a rich set of metadata covering: Data; Model; Metrics specification; Machine specification; and Science, Speed, and Power Results. We research FAIR metadata for these benchmarks. We develop application surrogate examples as benchmarks across many fields (ANL, UTK, IU, UVA). We also study non-Surrogate benchmarks that have many common features and similar issues as regards FAIRness. We work with MLCommons (UVA, UTK), which is a major machine learning benchmarking activity where we get metadata ontologies, software, and benchmarks, Benchmarks have datasets, models, and metadata and they need a technical framework developed by UTK and Rutgers and deployed by UVA. We study features of Surrogates including performance, training set size, and uncertainty quantification (Rutgers, UVA and IU).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Climate Informatics

The impacts of present and potential future climate change will be one of the most important scientific and societal challenges in the 21st century. Given observed changes in temperature, sea ice, and sea level, improving our understanding of the climate system is an international priority. This system is characterized by complex phenomena that are imperfectly observed and even more imperfectly simulated. But with an ever-growing supply of climate data from satellites and environmental sensors, the magnitude of data and climate model output is beginning to overwhelm the relatively simple tools currently used to analyze them. A computational approach will therefore be indispensable for these analysis challenges. This chapter introduces the fledgling research discipline climate informatics: collaborations between climate scientists and machine learning researchers in order to bridge this gap between data and understanding. We hope that the study of climate informatics will accelerate discovery in answering pressing questions in climate science.

Climate change↗

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Towards developing multiscale-multiphysics models and their surrogates for digital twins of metal additive manufacturing

Artificial intelligence (AI) embedded within digital models of manufacturing processes can be used to improve process productivity and product quality significantly. The application of such advanced capabilities particularly to highly digitalized processes such as metal additive manufacturing (AM) is likely to make those processes commercially more attractive. AI capabilities will reside within Digital Twins (DTs) which are living virtual replicas of the physical processes. DTs will be empowered to operate autonomously in a diagnostic control capacity to supervise processes and can be interrogated by the practitioner to inform the optimal processing route for any given product. The utility of the information gained from the DTs would depend on the quality of the digital models and, more importantly, their faster-solving surrogates which dwell within DTs for consultation during rapid decision-making. In this article, we point out the exceptional value of DTs in AM and focus on the need to create high-fidelity multiscale-multiphysics models for AM processes to feed the AI capabilities. We identify technical hurdles for their development, including those arising from the multiscale and multiphysics characteristics of the models, the difficulties in linking models of the subprocesses across scales and physics, and the scarcity of experimental data. We discuss the need for creating surrogate models using machine learning approaches for real-time problem-solving. We further identify non-technical barriers, such as the need for standardization and difficulties in collaborating across different types of institutions. We offer potential solutions for all these challenges, after reflecting on and researching discussions held at an international symposium on the subject in 2019. Here, we argue that a collaborative approach can not only help accelerate their development compared with disparate efforts, but also enhance the quality of the models by allowing modular development and linkages that account for interactions between the various sub-processes in AM. A high-level roadmap is suggested for starting such a collaboration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The development of an augmented machine learning approach for the additive manufacturing of thermoelectric materials

Through the integration of machine learning (ML) techniques alongside additive manufacturing (AM) experimentation, we demonstrate an iterative process to rapidly predict laser-material interactions and melt pool geometries throughout the build parameter space for a bismuth telluride thermoelectric (TE) material. In doing so, we determined process parameters that created crack-free, highly dense (>99 %) n-type bismuth telluride (Bi 2 Te 2.7 Se 0.3 ) parts through laser powder bed fusion (LPBF). Furthermore, the ML-assisted understanding of the processing space allowed for the identification of build parameters that successfully yielded geometrically enhanced Bi 2 Te 2.7 Se 0.3 parts with reduced build times and no increase in experimental effort.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DPM: A deep learning PDE augmentation method with application to large-eddy simulation

A framework is introduced that leverages known physics to reduce overfitting in machine learning for scientific applications. The partial differential equation (PDE) that expresses the physics is augmented with a neural network that uses available data to learn a description of the corresponding unknown or unrepresented physics. Training within this combined system corrects for missing, unknown, or erroneously represented physics, including discretization errors associated with the PDE's numerical solution. For optimization of the network within the PDE, an adjoint PDE is solved to provide high-dimensional gradients, and a stochastic adjoint method (SAM) further accelerates training. Additionally, the approach is demonstrated for large-eddy simulation (LES) of turbulence. High-fidelity direct numerical simulations (DNS) of decaying isotropic turbulence provide the training data used to learn sub-filter-scale closures for the filtered Navier–Stokes equations. Out-of-sample comparisons show that the deep learning PDE method outperforms widely-used models, even for filter sizes so large that they become qualitatively incorrect. It also significantly outperforms the same neural network when a priori trained based on simple data mismatch, not accounting for the full PDE. Measures of discretization errors, which are well-known to be consequential in LES, point to the importance of the unified training formulation's design, which without modification corrects for them. For comparable accuracy, simulation runtime is significantly reduced. A relaxation of the typical discrete enforcement of the divergence-free constraint in the solver is also successful, instead allowing the DPM to approximately enforce incompressibility physics. Since the training loss function is not restricted to correspond directly to the closure to be learned, training can incorporate diverse data, including experimental data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Improve the Search of Very Metal-poor Stars Using the Deep Learning Method

Very metal-poor (VMP) stars have [Fe/H] < -2.0 dex. They are among the oldest stars in the universe, and their unique metallicity can help explore the enrichment mechanism and evolutionary history of the chemical elements of stars in the early universe. However, most current stellar parameter estimation methods do not perform well in determining the stellar parameters of VMP stars, which limits our ability to discover and exploit the properties of VMP stars. In this study, we propose a new model based on a convolutional neural network to determine the stellar atmospheric parameters of VMP stars. We tested our model on the LAMOST spectra; our model can determine the effective temperature (T {sub eff}), surface gravity (log g), metallicity ([Fe/H]), and carbon abundance ([C/Fe]) of the LAMOST spectra with precisions σ(T {sub eff}) = 134.82 K, σ(log g) = 0.33 dex, σ ([Fe/H]) = 0.20 dex, and σ([C/Fe]) = 0.35 dex. Furthermore, our model can distinguish VMP stars from normal stars with an accuracy of 88.65%. We also compared this model with other widely used methods, and found that this method performs better than other methods. It can be applied to the stellar parameter pipelines of upcoming large surveys such as 4MOST, WEAVES, and MOONS to search for VMP stars and identify carbon-enhanced metal-poor stars.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Machine Learning Reveals the Critical Interactions for SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Binding to ACE2

SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 bind to the human ACE2 receptor in practically identical conformations, although several residues of the receptor-binding domain (RBD) differ between them. Herein, we have used molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, machine learning (ML), and free-energy perturbation (FEP) calculations to elucidate the differences in binding by the two viruses. Although only subtle differences were observed from the initial MD simulations of the two RBD–ACE2 complexes, ML identified the individual residues with the most distinctive ACE2 interactions, many of which have been highlighted in previous experimental studies. FEP calculations quantified the corresponding differences in binding free energies to ACE2, and examination of MD trajectories provided structural explanations for these differences. Lastly, the energetics of emerging SARS-CoV-2 mutations were studied, showing that the affinity of the RBD for ACE2 is increased by N501Y and E484K mutations but is slightly decreased by K417N.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design

The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗