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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based 𝑤CDM inference from weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps with deep learning: Analysis design

Data-driven approaches using deep learning are emerging as powerful techniques to extract non-Gaussian information from cosmological large-scale structure. Here, this work presents the first simulation-based inference (SBI) pipeline that combines weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps in a realistic Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) configuration and serves as preparation for a forthcoming analysis of the survey data. We develop a scalable forward model based on the CosmoGridV1 suite of N-body simulations to generate over one million self-consistent mock realizations of DES Y3 at the map level. Leveraging this large dataset, we train deep graph convolutional neural networks on the full survey footprint in spherical geometry to learn low-dimensional features that approximately maximize mutual information with target parameters. These learned compressions enable neural density estimation of the implicit likelihood via normalizing flows in a ten-dimensional parameter space spanning cosmological 𝑤CDM, intrinsic alignment, and linear galaxy bias parameters, while marginalizing over baryonic, photometric redshift, and shear bias nuisances. To ensure robustness, we extensively validate our inference pipeline using synthetic observations derived from both systematic contaminations in our forward model and independent Buzzard galaxy catalogs. Our forecasts yield significant improvements in cosmological parameter constraints, achieving 2−3× higher figures of merit in the 𝛺 𝑚 − 𝑆 8 plane relative to our implementation of baseline two-point statistics and effectively breaking parameter degeneracies through probe combination. These results demonstrate the potential of SBI analyses powered by deep learning for upcoming Stage-IV wide-field imaging surveys.

Thomsen, A. [Zurich, ETH] (ORCID:0000000203099021)↗

Conformal field theories are magical

“Magic” is the degree to which a state cannot be approximated by Clifford gates. We study mana, a measure of magic, in the ground state of the Z 3 Potts model, and argue that it is a broadly useful diagnostic for many-body physics. In particular we find that the q = 3 ground state has large mana at the model's critical point, and that this mana resides in the system's correlations. Here, we explain the form of the mana by a simple tensor-counting calculation based on a MERA representation of the state. Because mana is present at all length scales, we conclude that the conformal field theory describing the three-state Potts model critical point is magical. These results control the difficulty of preparing the Potts ground state on an error-corrected quantum computer and constrain tensor network models of AdS-CFT.

1-dimensional spin chains↗

Transformers and Long Short-Term Memory Transfer Learning for GenIV Reactor Temperature Time Series Forecasting

Automated monitoring of the coolant temperature can enable autonomous operation of generation IV reactors (GenIV), thus reducing their operating and maintenance costs. Automation can be accomplished with machine learning (ML) models trained on historical sensor data. However, the performance of ML usually depends on the availability of large amount of training data, which is difficult to obtain for GenIV, as this technology is still under development. We propose the use of transfer learning (TL), which involves utilizing knowledge across different domains, to compensate for this lack of training data. TL can be used to create pre-trained ML models with data from small-scale research facilities, which can then be fine-tuned to monitor GenIV reactors. In this work, we develop pre-trained Transformer and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks by training them on temperature measurements from thermal hydraulic flow loops operating with water and Galinstan fluids at room temperature at Argonne National Laboratory. The pre-trained models are then fine-tuned and re-trained with minimal additional data to perform predictions of the time series of high temperature measurements obtained from the Engineering Test Unit (ETU) at Kairos Power. The performance of the LSTM and Transformer networks is investigated by varying the size of the lookback window and forecast horizon. The results of this study show that LSTM networks have lower prediction errors than Transformers, but LSTM errors increase more rapidly with increasing lookback window size and forecast horizon compared to the Transformer errors.

LSTM↗

Network Theory: A Primer and Questions for Air Transportation Systems Applications

A new understanding (with potential applications to air transportation systems) has emerged in the past five years in the scientific field of networks. This development emerges in large part because we now have a new laboratory for developing theories about complex networks: The Internet. The premise of this new understanding is that most complex networks of interest, both of nature and of human contrivance, exhibit a fundamentally different behavior than thought for over two hundred years under classical graph theory. Classical theory held that networks exhibited random behavior, characterized by normal, (e.g., Gaussian or Poisson) degree distributions of the connectivity between nodes by links. The new understanding turns this idea on its head: networks of interest exhibit scale-free (or small world) degree distributions of connectivity, characterized by power law distributions. The implications of scale-free behavior for air transportation systems include the potential that some behaviors of complex system architectures might be analyzed through relatively simple approximations of local elements of the system. For air transportation applications, this presentation proposes a framework for constructing topologies (architectures) that represent the relationships between mobility, flight operations, aircraft requirements, and airspace capacity, and the related externalities in airspace procedures and architectures. The proposed architectures or topologies may serve as a framework for posing comparative and combinative analyses of performance, cost, security, environmental, and related metrics.

Holmes, Bruce J.↗

NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Graduate Student Program

The evolution of synoptic-scale dynamics associated with a middle and upper tropospheric cloud event that occurred on 26 November 1991 is examined. The case under consideration occurred during the FIRE CIRRUS-II Intensive Field Observing Period held in Coffeyville, KS during Nov. and Dec., 1991. Using data from the wind profiler demonstration network and a temporally and spatially augmented radiosonde array, emphasis is given to explaining the evolution of the kinematically-derived ageostrophic vertical circulations and correlating the circulation with the forcing of an extensively sampled cloud field. This is facilitated by decomposing the horizontal divergence into its component parts through a natural coordinate representation of the flow. Ageostrophic vertical circulations are inferred and compared to the circulation forcing arising from geostrophic confluence and shearing deformation derived from the Sawyer-Eliassen Equation. It is found that a thermodynamically indirect vertical circulation existed in association with a jet streak exit region. The circulation was displaced to the cyclonic side of the jet axis due to the orientation of the jet exit between a deepening diffluent trough and building ridge. The cloud line formed in the ascending branch of the vertical circulation with the most concentrated cloud development occurring in conjunction with the maximum large-scale vertical motion. The relationship between the large scale dynamics and the parameterization of middle and upper tropospheric clouds in large-scale models is discussed and an example of ice water contents derived from a parameterization forced by the diagnosed vertical motions and observed water vapor contents is presented.

Ackerman, Thomas P.↗

Extended field observations of cirrus clouds using a ground-based cloud observing system

The evolution of synoptic-scale dynamics associated with a middle and upper tropospheric cloud event that occurred on 26 November 1991 is examined. The case under consideration occurred during the FIRE CIRRUS-II Intensive Field Observing Period held in Coffeyville, KS during Nov. and Dec., 1991. Using data from the wind profiler demonstration network and a temporally and spatially augmented radiosonde array, emphasis is given to explaining the evolution of the kinematically-derived ageostrophic vertical circulations and correlating the circulation with the forcing of an extensively sampled cloud field. This is facilitated by decomposing the horizontal divergence into its component parts through a natural coordinate representation of the flow. Ageostrophic vertical circulations are inferred and compared to the circulation forcing arising from geostrophic confluence and shearing deformation derived from the Sawyer-Eliassen Equation. It is found that a thermodynamically indirect vertical circulation existed in association with a jet streak exit region. The circulation was displaced to the cyclonic side of the jet axis due to the orientation of the jet exit between a deepening diffluent trough and building ridge. The cloud line formed in the ascending branch of the vertical circulation with the most concentrated cloud development occurring in conjunction with the maximum large-scale vertical motion. The relationship between the large scale dynamics and the parameterization of middle and upper tropospheric clouds in large-scale models is discussed and an example of ice water contents derived from a parameterization forced by the diagnosed vertical motions and observed water vapor contents is presented.

Ackerman, Thomas P.↗

The Effects of Sensor Field-of-View on the Geometrical Characteristics of Sea Ice Leads and Implications for Large-Area Heat Flux Estimates

The release of heat from sea ice fractures ('leads') is an important component of the heat budget in the Arctic, but their impact on regional scale climate is difficult to assess without more information on their distribution in both space and time. Remote sensing of leads using satellite data, specifically AVHRR thermal and Landsat visible-band imagery, is examined empirically with respect to lead width, orientation, and area fraction. The geometrical aspects of the sensor are simulated so that the effect of sensor field-of-view on retrieved lead width statistics can be assessed. This is done using Landsat data and simulated lead networks degraded to AVHRR pixel sizes. The analyses illustrate how leads of sufficiently high contrast tend to 'grow' with increasing pixel size and how small or low contrast leads disappear. The relationship between lead contrast and the width/field-of-view ratio is also examined in order to determine the limits of lead detectability, and illustrates the multivalued nature of the problem of lead width retrieval. To help quantify the importance of changes in lead statistics, turbulent heat flux is calculated as a function of lead width and lead fraction. It is shown that pixel size has a substantial effect on estimates of turbulent heat transfer from leads to the atmosphere.

Key, J.↗

Data-driven emulation of modal aerosol microphysics via neural operator-based modeling

The complexity and the small characteristic scales of aerosol microphysical processes pose a big challenge for accurate and efficient Earth system simulations at regional and global scales. In this work, we construct and evaluate a surrogate model: the aerosol deep operator network (ADON), a physics-inspired dual-net architecture for emulating the aerosol microphysics parameterization suite in the version 2 of the Energy Earth System Model (E3SMv2). The current version of the surrogate model is trained on a dataset comprising 9.8 million samples obtained from a global E3SMv2 simulation with the horizontal resolution of about one degree under cloud-free conditions. Incorporating domain spatial and temporal coordinates, as well as principle components extracted from training data, the dual-net surrogate model effectively captures the intricate representations of aerosol and the relationship with atmospheric state variables, achieving an R-squared score over $$95.7\%$$ for all the lognormal aerosol modes in the extrapolated regime. The validated model provides feature importance of input variables and their impact on the predictive capacity of the surrogate model in relation to the E3SM. The computational cost of online inference time deployed on CPUs and GPUs with lower precisions highlights ADON’s efficiency and potential in robust predictive modeling for large-scale Earth system computations.

Bai, Zhe↗

Scalable Predictive Control and Optimization for Grid Integration of Large-Scale Distributed Energy Resources

Integrating a large number of distributed energy resources (DERs) into the power grid needs a scalable power balancing method. We formulate the power balancing problem as a look-ahead optimization problem to be solved sequentially by a power distribution system aggregator based on a model predictive control (MPC) framework. Solving large-scale look-ahead control problems requires proper configuration of the control steps. In this paper, to solve large-scale control problems, we propose a variable time granularity where control time steps nearby the current control step have finer resolutions. The aggregator objective includes maximization of power production revenue and minimization of power purchasing expense, renewable power curtailment, and mileage costs for energy storage and electric vehicle (EV) charging stations while satisfying system capacity and operational constraints. The control problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) and solved using the XpressMP solver. We perform simulations considering a copper plate representation of a large distribution network consisting of 2507 devices (control-lable DERs), including curtailable photovoltaics (PVs), energy storage batteries, EV charging stations, and buildings with heating, ventilation, and air conditioning units (HVACs). We show the effectiveness of the proposed approach in managing DERs interactively for maximum energy trading profit and local supply-demand power balancing. Finally, we demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms other benchmark controllers regarding computation time without compromising operational performance.

DER↗

Fabricating Silver Nanowire–IZO Composite Transparent Conducting Electrodes at Roll-to-Roll Speed for Perovskite Solar Cells

This study addresses the challenges of efficient, large-scale production of flexible transparent conducting electrodes (TCEs). We fabricate TCEs on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) substrates using a high-speed roll-to-roll (R2R) compatible method that combines gravure printing and photonic curing. The hybrid TCEs consist of Ag metal bus lines (Ag MBLs) coated with silver nanowires (AgNWs) and indium zinc oxide (IZO) layers. All materials are solutions deposited at speeds exceeding 10 m/min using gravure printing. We conduct a systematic study to optimize coating parameters and tune solvent composition to achieve a uniform AgNW network. The entire stack undergoes photonic curing, a low-energy annealing method that can be completed at high speeds and will not damage the plastic substrates. The resulting hybrid TCEs exhibit a transmittance of 92% averaged from 400 nm to 1100 nm and a sheet resistance of 11 Ω/sq. Mechanical durability is tested by bending the hybrid TCEs to a strain of 1% for 2000 cycles. The results show a minimal increase (<5%) in resistance. The high-throughput potential is established by showing that each hybrid TCE fabrication step can be completed at 30 m/min. We further fabricate methylammonium lead iodide solar cells to demonstrate the practical use of these TCEs, achieving an average power conversion efficiency (PCE) of 13%. The high-performance hybrid TCEs produced using R2R-compatible processes show potential as a viable choice for replacing vacuum-deposited indium tin oxide films on PET.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Clear air mesocyclone during the JAWS project

Documentation is furnished for the clear air mesocyclone that propagated through the network of the Joint Airport Weather Studies project near Denver, CO, on June 5, 1982. Despite present classification as a mesocyclone, the analyses here reported have revealed two separate features affecting the area: a mesocirculation, defined by the kinematics of the wind field, and a mesolow, determined on the basis of the pressure field. The occurrence of these two conditions in the Denver area, in relation to the synoptic scale environment, raises a question as to whether this phenomenon is an example of cyclogenesis in the lee of a large mountain range.

Wakimoto, R. M.↗

Determination of cosmic bodies size-velocity distribution by observation of current impacts on Mars

Collisions of cosmic bodies with terrestrial planets involve many physical processes such as deceleration and ablation during their flight through an atmosphere, the impact at a surface accompanied by cratering, melting and evaporation of surface material, generation of shock waves, etc. If body velocity is high enough then a thermal radiation is very important. All these processes on Mars proceed differently than on the other planets because of the low density of its atmosphere. In particular, this leads to the fact that smaller bodies of sizes of the order of 0.1-10 m strike the planet surface without being decelerated and perform some effects which may be detected by equipment placed on a board of artificial satellites, by a network of stations at the surface of Mars and even from the Earth. These observations can be used to determine size-velocity distribution of such bodies in the Solar System. Numerical simulation of the impacts at the surface of Mars have been carried out using two-dimensional gas dynamic code with detailed consideration of the thermal radiative transfer. This work is an extension of our previous paper. We have expanded a range of projectile sizes up to r sub 0 = 100 m. For such a large-scale body, the initial stage of the impact, involving crate ring and ejection of surface material, is very important. Thus, these effects have been taken into account.

Nemchinov, I. V.↗

Coronal Heating and the Increase of Coronal Luminosity with Magnetic Flux

We present the observed scaling of coronal luminosity with magnetic flux in a set of quiet regions. Comparison of this with the observed scaling found for active regions suggests an underlying difference between coronal heating in active regions and quiet regions. From SOHO/EIT coronal images and SOHO/MDI magnetograms of four similar large quiet regions, we measure L(sub corona) and Phi(sub total) in random subregions ranging in area from about four supergranules [(70,000 km)(exp 2)] to about 100 supergranules [(0.5 R(sub sun))(exp 2)], where L(sub corona) is the luminosity of the corona in a subregion and Phi(sub total) is the flux content of the magnetic network in the subregion. This sampling of our quiet regions yields a correlation plot of Log L(sub corona) vs Log Phi(sub total) appropriate for comparison with the corresponding plot for active regions. For our quiet regions, the mean values of L(sub corona) and Phi(sub total) both increase linearly with area (simply because each set of subregions of the same area has very nearly the same mean coronal luminosity per unit area and mean magnetic flux per unit area), and in each constant-area set the values of L(sub corona) and Phi(sub total) 'scatter' about their means for that area. This results in the linear least-squares fit to the Log ((L (sub corona)), vs Log ((Phi (sub total)) plot having a slope somewhat less than one. If active regions mimicked our quiet regions in that all large sets of same-area active regions had the same mean coronal luminosity per unit area and same mean magnetic flux per unit area, then the least-squares fit to their Log((L (sub corona)) vs Log((Phi (sub total)) plot would also have a slope of less than one. Instead, the slope for active regions is 1.2. Given the observed factor of three scatter about the least-squares linear fit, this slope is consistent with Phi(sub total) on average increasing linearly with area (A) as in quiet regions, but L(sub corona) on average increasing as the volume (A(exp 1.5)) of the active region instead of as the area. This possibility is reasonable if the heating in active regions is a burning down of previously-stored coronal magnetic energy rather than a steady dissipation of energy flux from below as expected in quiet regions.

Moore, R. L.↗

Revisiting the Relationship between Atlantic Dust and Tropical Cyclone Activity using Aerosol Optical Depth Reanalyses: 2003-2018

Previous studies have noted a relationship between African dust and Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, due to the limitations of past dust analyses, the strength of this relationship remains uncertain. The emergence of aerosol reanalyses, including the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) reanalysis, NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and ECMWF Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reanalysis (CAMSRA), enables an investigation of the relationship between African dust and TC activity over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in a consistent temporal and spatial manner for 2003–2018. Although June–July–August (JJA) 550 nm dust AOD (DAOD) from all three reanalysis products correlates significantly over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, the difference in DAOD magnitude between products can be as large as 60 % over the Caribbean and 20 % over the tropical North Atlantic. Based on the three individual reanalyses, we have created an aerosol multi-reanalysis consensus (MRC). The MRC presents overall better root mean square error over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean compared to individual reanalyses when verified with ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) AOD measurements. Each of the three individual reanalyses and the MRC have significant negative correlations between JJA Caribbean DAOD and seasonal Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), while the correlation between JJA tropical North Atlantic DAOD and seasonal ACE is weaker. Possible reasons for this regional difference are provided. A composite analysis of 3 high-JJA-Caribbean-DAOD years versus 3 low-JJA-Caribbean-DAOD years reveals large differences in overall Atlantic TC activity. We also show that JJA Caribbean DAOD is significantly correlated with large-scale fields associated with variability in interannual Atlantic TC activity including zonal wind shear, mid-level moisture, and sea surface temperature (SST), as well as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), implying confounding effects of these factors on the dust–TC relationship. We find that seasonal Atlantic DAOD and the AMM, the leading mode of coupled Atlantic variability, are inversely related and intertwined in the dust–TC relationship. Overall, DAOD in both the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean is negatively correlated with Atlantic hurricane frequency and intensity, with stronger correlations in the Caribbean than farther east in the tropical North Atlantic.

Dust particles↗

Scalable Predictive Control and Optimization for Grid Integration of Large-Scale Distributed Energy Resources: Preprint

Integration of a large number of distributed energy resources (DERs) into the power grid needs a scalable power balancing method. We formulate the power balancing problem as a look-ahead optimization problem to be solved sequentially by a power distribution system aggregator based on a model predictive control (MPC) framework. Solving large-scale look-ahead control problem requires proper configuration of the control steps. In this paper, to solve large-scale control problems, we propose a variable time granularity where control time steps nearby the current control step have finer resolutions. The aggregator objective includes maximization of power production revenue and minimization of power purchasing expense, renewable power curtailment, and mileage costs for energy storage and electric vehicle (EV) charging stations while satisfying system capacity and operational constraints. The control problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) and solved using the XpressMP solver. We perform simulations considering a copper plate representation of a large distribution network consisting of 2507 devices (controllable DERs) including curtailable photovoltaics (PVs), energy storage batteries, EV charging stations, and buildings with heating, ventilation, and air conditioning units (HVACs). We show the effectiveness of the proposed approach in managing DERs interactively for maximum energy trading profit and local supply-demand power balancing. Finally, we demonstrate that the proposed method outperformed other benchmark controllers regarding computation time without compromising operational performance.

DER↗

Scalable Predictive Control and Optimization for Grid Integration of Large-Scale Distributed Energy Resources

Integrating a large number of distributed energy resources (DERs) into the power grid needs a scalable power balancing method. We formulate the power balancing problem as a look-ahead optimization problem to be solved sequentially by a power distribution system aggregator based on a model predictive control (MPC) framework. Solving large-scale look-ahead control problems requires proper configuration of the control steps. In this paper, to solve large-scale control problems, we propose a variable time granularity where control time steps nearby the current control step have finer resolutions. The aggregator objective includes maximization of power production revenue and minimization of power purchasing expense, renewable power curtailment, and mileage costs for energy storage and electric vehicle (EV) charging stations while satisfying system capacity and operational constraints. The control problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) and solved using the XpressMP solver. We perform simulations considering a copper plate representation of a large distribution network consisting of 2507 devices (controllable DERs), including curtailable photovoltaics (PVs), energy storage batteries, EV charging stations, and buildings with heating, ventilation, and air conditioning units (HVACs). We show the effectiveness of the proposed approach in managing DERs interactively for maximum energy trading profit and local supply-demand power balancing. Finally, we demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms other benchmark controllers regarding computation time without compromising operational performance.

DER↗

Day-ahead photovoltaic power production forecasting methodology based on machine learning and statistical post-processing

A main challenge towards ensuring large-scale and seamless integration of photovoltaic systems is to improve the accuracy of energy yield forecasts, especially in grid areas of high photovoltaic shares. The scope of this paper is to address this issue by presenting a unified methodology for hourly-averaged day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasts with improved accuracy, based on data-driven machine learning techniques and statistical post-processing. More specifically, the proposed forecasting methodology framework comprised of a data quality stage, data-driven power output machine learning model development (artificial neural networks), weather clustering assessment (K-means clustering), post-processing output optimisation (linear regressive correction method) and the final performance accuracy evaluation. The results showed that the application of linear regression coefficients to the forecasted outputs of the developed day-ahead photovoltaic power production neural network improved the performance accuracy by further correcting solar irradiance forecasting biases. The resulting optimised model provided a mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% when applied to historical system datasets. Finally, the model was validated both, at a hot as well as a cold semi-arid climatic location, and the obtained results demonstrated close agreement by yielding forecasting accuracies of mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% and 6.3%, respectively. Finally, the validation analysis provides evidence that the proposed model exhibits high performance in both forecasting accuracy and stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Entanglement and many-body effects in collective neutrino oscillations

Collective neutrino oscillations play a crucial role in transporting lepton flavor in astrophysical settings, such as supernovae, where the neutrino density is large. In this regime, neutrino-neutrino interactions are important and simulations in the mean-field approximation show evidence for collective oscillations occurring at timescales much shorter than those associated with vacuum oscillations. In this work, we study the out-of-equilibrium dynamics of a corresponding spin model using matrix product states and show how collective bipolar oscillations can be triggered by many-body correlations if appropriate initial conditions are present. We find entanglement entropies scaling at most logarithmically in the system size suggesting that classical tensor network methods could be efficient in describing collective neutrino dynamics more generally. These observation provide a clear path forward, not only to increase the accuracy of current simulations, but also to elucidate the mechanism behind collective flavor oscillations without resorting to the mean-field approximation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗