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At least 1,315 records · Page 73
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Observations of Ocean Primary Productivity Using MODIS

Measuring the magnitude and variability of oceanic net primary productivity (NPP) represents a key advancement toward our understanding of the dynamics of marine ecosystems and the role of the ocean in the global carbon cycle. MODIS observations make two new contributions in addition to continuing the bio-optical time series begun with Orbview-2's SeaWiFS sensor. First, MODIS provides weekly estimates of global ocean net primary productivity on weekly and annual time periods, and annual empirical estimates of carbon export production. Second, MODIS provides additional insight into the spatial and temporal variations in photosynthetic efficiency through the direct measurements of solar-stimulated chlorophyll fluorescence. The two different weekly productivity indexes (first developed by Behrenfeld & Falkowski and by Yoder, Ryan and Howard) are used to derive daily productivity as a function of chlorophyll biomass, incident daily surface irradiance, temperature, euphotic depth, and mixed layer depth. Comparisons between these two estimates using both SeaWiFS and MODIS data show significant model differences in spatial distribution after allowance for the different integration depths. Both estimates are strongly dependence on the accuracy of the chlorophyll determination. In addition, an empirical approach is taken on annual scales to estimate global NPP and export production. Estimates of solar stimulated fluorescence efficiency from chlorophyll have been shown to be inversely related to photosynthetic efficiency by Abbott and co-workers. MODIS provides the first global estimates of oceanic chlorophyll fluorescence, providing an important proof of concept. MODIS observations are revealing spatial patterns of fluorescence efficiency which show expected variations with phytoplankton photo-physiological parameters as measured during in-situ surveys. This has opened the way for research into utilizing this information to improve our understanding of oceanic NPP variability. Deriving the ocean bio-optical properties places severe demands on instrument performance (especially band to band precision) and atmospheric correction. Improvements in MODIS instrument characterization and calibration over the first 16 mission months have greatly improved the accuracy of the chlorophyll input fields and FLH, and therefore the estimates of NPP and fluorescence efficiency. Annual estimates now show the oceanic NPP accounts for 40-50% of the global total NPP, with significant interannual variations related to large scale ocean processes. Spatial variations in ocean NPP, and exported production, have significant effects on exchange of CO2 between the ocean and atmosphere. Further work is underway to improve both the primary productivity model functions, and to refine our understanding of the relationships between fluorescence efficiency and NPP estimates. We expect that the MODIS instruments will prove extremely useful in assessing the time dependencies of oceanic carbon uptake and effects of iron enrichment, within the global carbon cycle.

Esaias, Wayne E.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Global Time-Variable Gravity and its Geophysical/Climatic Connections

Any large mass transport in the Earth system produces changes in the gravity field. Low harmonic degree components of such variations have been observed by the satellite-laser-ranging (SLR) technique, particularly in 52, the Earth's dynamic oblateness. 52 has long been observed to undergo a slight decrease due to the post-glacial rebound of the mantle -- until around 1998, when it switched quite suddenly to an increase trend which continued to 2001 before sharply turning back to normal , signifying a large change in global mass distribution whose 52 effect overshadows that of the post-glacial rebound over interannual timescales. Intriguing evidences have been found in the Ocean water distribution, especially related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the extratropical Pacific basins, that may be responsible for this 52 anomaly. Besides the lowest-degree 52, recent updates in the SLR-derived time series of the Earth's low-degree gravity components also show shorter wavelength zonal and other longitudinal signals. While the formal uncertainty of these terms is significantly higher than that for 52, some of these series have significant signal that appears to be climatic in origin. For example, there is a significant correlation of the sectoral S2,2 with the Tahiti-Darwin Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), but preceding SO1 by about 1 year. Similar cases demonstrate the utility of assessing the mass component of climate variations. We will present these intriguing results.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Time-Variable Gravity from Satellite-Laser-Ranging and Doppler Measurements: An Update on the Low-degree components as well as the connections with Geophysical/Climatic Processes

The oblateness of the Earth's gravity field, 52, has long been observed to undergo a slight decrease due to post-glacial rebound of the mantle. Sometime around 1998 this trend reversed quite suddenly. This reversal persisted until 2001, at which point the atmosphere-corrected time series appears to have reversed yet again. Presently, the time series appears to be returning to the value that would nominally have been reached had the anomaly not occurred. This anomaly signifies a large interannual change in global mass distribution whose J2 effect overshadows that of the post-glacial rebound over such timescales. A number of possible causes have been considered, with oceanic mass redistribution as the leading candidate although other effects, such as glacial melting and core effects may be contributing. The amount by which J2 returns to it's nominal value provides a valuable constraint on the separation of the causes, and will be considered. We will present our latest Satellite Laser Ranging and DORIS Doppler derived time series for J2, and various other low-degree harmonic terms, as well as our investigations into the causes. In addition, we will show the comparison of the J2 results with those derived from CHAMP, as computed at NASA GSFC, and the recently released GRACE gravity model.

Cox, Christopher M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic

Abstract The compound nature of large wildfires in combination with complex physical and biophysical processes affecting variations in hydroclimate and fuel conditions makes it difficult to directly connect wildfire changes over fire-prone regions like the western United States (U.S.) with anthropogenic climate change. Here we show that increasing large wildfires during autumn over the western U.S. are fueled by more fire-favorable weather associated with declines in Arctic sea ice during preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal time scales. Our analysis (based on observations, climate model sensitivity experiments, and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations) demonstrates and explains the Arctic-driven teleconnection through regional circulation changes with the poleward-shifted polar jet stream and enhanced fire-favorable surface weather conditions. The fire weather changes driven by declining Arctic sea ice during the past four decades are of similar magnitude to other leading modes of climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that also influence fire weather in the western U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Lower-Stratospheric Tracer Trends and Variability from Reanalyses

Previous studies have robustly identified a decrease since 1998 in lower stratospheric ozone in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). While this ozone decrease is qualitatively explained as resulting from changes in the large-scale circulation, there is not yet a quantitative mechanistic explanation of these changes. Here we explore the drivers of recent ozone changes using two different configurations of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model. The first configuration of GEOS includes a full chemistry module and is constrained with meteorological fields from the MERRA-2 reanalysis. This configuration (M2GMI) is used to analyze an idealized tracer that covaries closely with ozone on interannual and decadal timescales, revealing that recent ozone decreases in the NH subtropics are associated with a poleward expansion of upwelling in the NH LS, with reduced (enhanced) downwelling over northern subtropics (midlatitudes). The second configuration of GEOS is a free-running version of the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) that is used to perform a ten-member ensemble of free-running simulations. Comparisons of the two configurations reveal that, while the free-running model can produce negative ozone changes in the NH LS, the magnitude of these changes is significantly weaker, relative to both M2GMI and MERRA-2; moreover, these weaker ozone decreases are consistent with weaker simulated changes in the residual circulation. Finally, we examine the GEOS model results in the broader context of the hindcast simulations performed as part of Phase 1 of the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative. We show that the majority of the free-running simulations considered here also exhibit weaker long-term residual circulation changes, compared to reanalyses.

Wargan, Kris↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hantavirus is Associated With Open Developed Areas and Arid Climates, Highlighting Increased Risk in the Western United States

In the United States, hantaviruses can cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in humans, an acute respiratory illness with a high mortality rate. Most people contract HPS from exposure to infected rodent excrement. The interannual dynamics of hantavirus transmission are tied to both environmental and human-related factors, including changes in annual climate conditions, rodent populations, and the built environment in which humans are more likely to be exposed. Similar environmental conditions and socioeconomic factors also likely determine the long-term risk of hantavirus exposure. Here, we use ecological niche models and human cases of HPS in the U.S. from 1993 to 2022 to assess hantavirus risk using four socioeconomic variables, 17 land use variables, one variable of rodent richness, and seven climate variables to determine both the geographical locations of highest exposure risk and leading environmental predictors. We found that areas with higher relative risk tend to be where it is drier, higher social vulnerability, increased rodent richness, and more open to low levels of development—this largely mapped to the western U.S. We found evidence that fringe ecosystems may be important areas of hantavirus transmission, similar to other emerging diseases. Increased rodent richness was associated with increased hantavirus risk, warranting further investigation into how the abundance and community composition of rodents could impact long-term risk. These risk maps can help public health officials develop plans for mitigating hantavirus, especially for the most susceptible populations. They can also be used to further investigate regions estimated to be at high risk for hantavirus where disease cases have not been as common but may be underreported.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1985

Comparisons of the North Polar Cap of Mars and the Earth's Northern Hemisphere snow cover

The boundaries of the polar caps of Mars have been measured on more than 3000 photographs since 1905 from the plate collection at the Lowell Observatory. For the Earth the polar caps have been accurately mapped only since the mid 1960's when satellites were first available to synoptically view the polar regions. The polar caps of both planets wax and wane in response to changes in the seasons, and interannual differences in polar cap behavior on Mars as well as Earth are intimately linked to global energy balance. In this study data on the year to year variations in the extent of the polar caps of Mars and Earth were assembled and analyzed together with data on annual variations in solar activity to determine if associations exist between these data. It was found that virtually no correlation exists between measurements of Mars north polar cap and solar variability. An inverse relationship was found between variations in the size of the north polar caps of Mars and Earth, although only 6 years of concurrent data were available for comparison.

Foster, J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Validation of a Remote Sensing Based Index of Forest Disturbance Using Streamwater Nitrogen Data

Vegetation disturbances are known to alter the functioning of forested ecosystems by contributing to export ('leakage') of dissolved nitrogen (N), typically nitrate-N, from watersheds that can contribute to acidification of acid-sensitive streams, leaching of base cations, and eutrophication of downstream receiving waters. Yet, at a landscape scale, direct evaluation of how disturbance is linked to spatial variability in N leakage is complicated by the fact that disturbances operate at different spatial scales, over different timescales, and at different intensities. In this paper we explore whether data from synoptic streamwater surveys conducted in an Appalachian oak-dominated forested river basin in western MD (USA) can be used to test and validate a scalable, synthetic, and integrative forest disturbance index (FDI) derived from Landsat imagery. In particular, we found support for the hypothesis that the interannual variation in spring baseflow total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and nitrate-N concentrations measured at 35 randomly selected stream stations varied as a linear function of the change in FDI computed for the corresponding set of subwatersheds. Our results demonstrate that the combined effects of forest disturbances can be detected using synoptic water quality data. It appears that careful timing of the synoptic baseflow sampling under comparable phenological and hydrometeorological conditions increased our ability to identify a forest disturbance signal.

Eshleman, Keith N.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Variability of antarctic sea ice and changes in carbon dioxide

Available data for antarctic sea ice is examined for the presence of long terms trends which could signal a decrease in the total ice amount being brought on by atmospheric warming due to increased CO2 concentrations. The Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer derived ice concentrations from 1972-1976, after which the scanning multifrequency microwave radiometer on the Nimbus 7 spacecraft was used from 1978-1981. Additionally, ship reports, IR data from the NOAA 5 radiometer, and the Landsat visible light scanner were considered. The data were digitized for analyses, which covered seasonal, year-to-year, trends over several years, and interannual seasonal variations. The total ice amplitude varied by 30 pct annually, and decreases in one area corresponded to increases in ice in others. No particular long-term trends were observed, and it is suggested that the satellite ice coverage data be extended in time in order to uncover any trends that extend beyond 9 yr.

Zwally, H. J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Causal Interactions between Southern Ocean Polynyas and High-Latitude Atmosphere–Ocean Variability

Abstract Weddell Sea open-ocean polynyas have been observed to occasionally release heat from the deep ocean to the atmosphere, indicating that their sporadic appearances may be an important feature of high-latitude atmosphere–ocean variability. Yet, observations of the phenomenon are sparse and many standard-resolution models represent these features poorly, if at all. We use a fully coupled, synoptic-scale preindustrial control simulation of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv0-HR) to effectively simulate open-ocean polynyas and investigate their role in the climate system. Our approach employs statistical tests of Granger causality to diagnose local and remote drivers of, and responses to, polynya heat loss on interannual to decadal time scales. First, we find that polynya heat loss Granger causes a persistent increase in surface air temperature over the Weddell Sea, strengthening the local cyclonic wind circulation. Along with responding to polynyas, atmospheric conditions also facilitate their development. When the Southern Ocean experiences a rapid poleward shift in the circumpolar westerlies following a prolonged negative phase of the southern annular mode (SAM), Weddell Sea salinity increases, promoting density destratification and convection in the water column. Finally, we find that the reduction of surface heat fluxes during periods of full ice cover is not fully compensated by ocean heat transport into the high latitudes. This imbalance leads to a buildup of ocean heat content that supplies polynya heat loss. These results disentangle the complex, coupled climate processes that both enable the polynya’s existence and respond to it, providing insights to improve the representation of these highly episodic sea ice features in climate models.

Kaufman, Zachary S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

DataHub sponsored analysis

The primary productivity of phytoplankton in the ocean is largely responsible for the assimilation of carbon into the oceanic environment, and thus in part the removal of carbon from the atmosphere. Because the ocean is thought to be a primary sink for atmospheric carbon, the basin wide and global distribution of oceanic primary productivity is of central importance in the global budget of carbon. To understand the global productivity of the oceans, the interactions between the physical and biological structures must be known. To address the broader context of the primary productivity of the sea, the physical and biological processes and their variability, including changes in water mass, incident irradiance, nutrients, and consequent formation of blooms of different species of marine phytoplankton and bacteria must be studied. In this investigation, we will use time series of the pigment distributions, taken from the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS), and of the sea-surface temperature, taken from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). These time series will be examined to determine the spatial and temporal statistics of productivity, including the interannual variations that occur in productivity caused by variations in the physical environment. For this task we have chosen to use monthly composite global maps created from the satellite imagery.

Tran, An Van↗
NASA NTRS2019

Decomposing Shortwave Top-of-Atmosphere and Surface Radiative Flux Variations in Terms of Surface and Atmospheric Contributions

Adiagnostic tool for determining surface and atmospheric contributions to interannual variations in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflected shortwave (SW) and net downward SW surface radiative fluxes is introduced. The method requires only upward and downward radiative fluxes at the TOA and surface as input and therefore can readily be applied to both satellite-derived and model-generated adiative fluxes. Observations from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Edition 4.0 product show that 81% of the monthly variability in global mean reflected SW TOA flux anomalies is associated with atmospheric variations (mainly clouds),6%is from surface variations, and 13% is from atmosphere–surface covariability. Over the Arctic Ocean, most of the variability in both reflected SW TOA flux and net downward SW surface flux anomalies is explained by variations in sea ice and cloud fraction alone (r2 5 0.94). Compared to CERES, variability in two reanalyses—the ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2)—show large differences in the regional distribution of variance for both the atmospheric and surface contributions to anomalies in net downward SW surface flux. For MERRA-2 the atmospheric contribution is 17% too large compared to CERES while ERA-Interim underestimates the variance by 15%. The difference is mainly due to how cloud variations are represented in the reanalyses. The overall surface contribution in both ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 is smaller than CERES EBAF by 15% for ERA-Interim and 58% for MERRA-2, highlighting limitations of the reanalyses in representing surface albedo variations and their influence on SW radiative fluxes.

Norman G. Loeb↗
NASA NTRS1991

Earth's variable rotation

Recent improvements in geodetic data and practical meteorology have advanced research on fluctuations in the earth's rotation. The interpretation of these fluctuations is inextricably linked with studies of the dynamics of the earth-moon system and dynamical processes in the liquid metallic core of the earth (where the geomagnetic field originates), other parts of the earth's interior, and the hydrosphere and atmosphere. Fluctuations in the length of the day occurring on decadal time scales have implications for the topographay of the core-mantle boundary and the electrical, magnetic, ande other properties of the core and lower mantle. Investigations of more rapid fluctuations bear on meteorological studies of interannual, seasonal, and intraseasonal variations in the general circulation of the atmosphere and the response of the oceans to such variations.

Hide, Raymond↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Impacts of Freshwater Input and Surface Wind Velocity on the Strength and Extent of a Large High Latitude River Plume

Arctic Ocean physical and biogeochemical properties are strongly influenced by freshwater input from land and through the Bering Strait, where the mean currents transport water northward from the Bering Sea. The Yukon River is one of the largest rivers in North America and the Arctic, contributing large quantities of freshwater and terrigenous material to the coastal ocean in the northern Bering Sea. However, a detailed analysis of the coastal hydrodynamics at the outflow of the river has not been conducted in this remote but regionally important river. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was built to represent the lower Yukon River and coastal ocean for the ice-free months in 7 years. On average, a large anticyclonic eddy persisted at the main outflow of the Yukon that recirculates water back toward the coast where the currents converge to form a mean northward transport along the delta. Interannual spatial variance in salinity was relatively small, while there was substantial variance in u and v current velocity. u velocity spatial variance was correlated to the volume of freshwater discharge across years, while v velocity spatial variance was correlated to the N–S wind velocity. During strong wind events, plume structure was substantially altered: southerly winds deepened the plume and enhanced northward transport, while northerly winds shoaled and strengthened the pycnocline, and reversed the flow toward the south. The variability in plume dispersion on short time scales due to wind forcing has implications for where terrigenous material is processed in and settles out of the water column.

river plume↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recent trends and variability of temperature and atmospheric water vapor over South Asia

This study examines the recent trends and variability of temperature and atmospheric water vapor over South Asia during the summer monsoon season from 1970 to 2022. We employ gridded reanalysis and observational datasets to assess the trends and variability in surface temperature and further investigate the associated physical processes. Our results show that the surface temperature over South Asia has increased by 0.5 °C per decade. Notably, we find a statistically significant major transition in the surface temperature series in 1995, such that 1970–1994 (1995–2022) is associated with anomalous cooling (anomalous warming). Since 1995, not only have the temporal variations in regional surface temperature, atmospheric water vapor, and clear-sky downward longwave radiation been synchronous at interannual scales, but their largest spatial variations have been located mainly over the same region. A diagnosis of the atmospheric moisture budget reveals that the observed changes in water vapor convergence over South Asia are dominated by changes in mean circulation dynamics, while the change in thermodynamics is relatively small. The enhancement of the Somali low-level jet may contribute to increased water vapor in South Asia by modulating low-level circulations.

Atmospheric circulations↗
DOE OSTI2018

Climate Modeling and Causal Identification for Sea Ice Predictability

This project aims to better understand causes of ongoing changes in the Arctic climate system, particularly as decreasing sea ice trends have been observed in recent decades and are expected to continue in the future. As part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network, a multi-agency effort to improve sea ice prediction products on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, our team is studying sensitivity of sea ice to a collection of physical process and feedback mechanism in the coupled climate system. During 2017 we completed a set of climate model simulations using the fully coupled ACME-HiLAT model. The simulations consisted of experiments in which cloud, sea ice, and air-ocean turbulent exchange parameters previously identified as important for driving output uncertainty in climate models were perturbed to account for parameter uncertainty in simulated climate variables. We conducted a sensitivity study to these parameters, which built upon a previous study we made for standalone simulations (Urrego-Blanco et al., 2016, 2017). Using the results from the ensemble of coupled simulations, we are examining robust relationships between climate variables that emerge across the experiments. We are also using causal discovery techniques to identify interaction pathways among climate variables which can help identify physical mechanisms and provide guidance in predictability studies. This work further builds on and leverages the large ensemble of standalone sea ice simulations produced in our previous w14_seaice project.

"Sea ice" uncertainty↗
NASA NTRS2007

Intraseasonal Variations of the Tropical Total Ozone and their Connection to the Madden-Julian Oscillation

We investigate the intraseasonal (30-90 day) variations in satellite-observed tropical total ozone (O3) and their connection to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Tropical total O3 intraseasonal variations are large (approximately +/- 10 DU) and comparable to those in annual and interannual time scales. These O3 anomalies are mainly evident in the subtropics over the Pacific an eastern; hemisphere and propagate slowly eastward (approximately 5 m s-1). The subtropical negative (positive) O3 anomalies are typically collocated with the subtropical upper troposphere anticyclones (cyclones) generated by equatorial MJO convection and flank or lie to the west of the equatorial enhanced (suppressed) MJO convection. The subtropical O3 are anticorrelated with geopotential height anomalies near the tropopause and thus mainly associated with the O3 variability in the stratosphere rather the troposphere. Over the equatorial regions, total O3 anomalies are small.

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)↗
DOE OSTI2019

An Externally Forced Decadal Rainfall Seesaw Pattern Over the Sahel and Southeast Amazon

Abstract By analyzing observations and model simulations, here we show that there exists a significant anticorrelation on interannual to multidecadal time scales between the Sahel and southeast Amazon rainfall during July‐August‐September. This rainfall seesaw, which is strongest on decadal to multidecadal scales, is due to an anomalous meridional gradient of sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic that pushes the Intertropical Convergence Zone and its associated rain belt toward the anomalously warm hemisphere. Large ensemble model simulations suggest that the seesaw pattern is likely caused by decadal changes in anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols, rather than internal climate variability. Our results suggest that the recent decadal to multidecadal climate variations in and around the North Atlantic basin are largely externally forced and that projected large North Atlantic warming could lead to a wetter Sahel but drier Amazon in the future.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗