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NASA NTRS2022

Economic incentives modify agricultural impacts of nuclear war

A nuclear war using less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal, which would inject 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere, could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and significant impacts on agricultural productivity and the economy. These effects would be most severe for the first five years after the nuclear war and may last for more than a decade. This paper calculates how food availability would change by employing the Environmental Impact and Sustainability Applied General Equilibrium model. Under a robust world trading system, global food availability would drop by a few percentage points. If the war would destabilize trade, it would magnify by several times the negative ramifications of land productivity shocks on food availability. If exporting countries redirect production to domestic consumption at the expense of importing countries, it would lead to the destabilization of international trade. The analysis suggests that economic models aiming to inform policymakers require both economic behavior analysis and biophysical drivers. Policy lessons derived from a crop model can be significantly nuanced when coupled with economic feedback derived from economic models. Through the impact on yield, farmers could shift production among crops and reallocate land use to maximize profits, showing the importance of general equilibrium effects such as product and input substitution and international trade. Although the global impact on corn and soybean production would be significant when just considering crop production, it could be considerably smaller under the economic model. However, this would be at the expense of other sectors, including livestock. In addition, the costs borne from disruptions to climate would vary significantly across regions, with significant adverse effects in high latitude regions. The severity of the shocks in the high-latitude areas would marginalize the farmers' product and input substitution ability.

Nuclear war↗

NASA NTRS2022

Compound Heat and Moisture Extreme Impacts on Global Crop Yields Under Climate Change

Extreme heat, drought and moisture excess are increasingly co-occurring within a single growing season, impacting crop yields in global breadbasket regions. In this Review, we synthesize understanding of compound heat and moisture extremes, their impacts on global crop yields and implications for adaptation. Heat and moisture extremes and their impacts become compounded through crop-physiological interactions, heat–moisture couplings in the climate system and crop–atmosphere interactions. Since around 2000, these compound extremes, and hot droughts in particular, have been linked to especially poor harvests (up to 30% yield losses) in regions such as India, Ethiopia, the USA, Europe and Russia. However, in some cases, combinations of crop stresses might generate compensating effects. Compound extremes are projected to increase in frequency and amplitude in the future, but, owing to the biophysical interdependence among temperature, water and crop physiology, the net yield effects of such future compound extremes remain uncertain. Accordingly, compound extremes will necessitate comprehensive agricultural adaptation strategies geared towards multi-stress resilience, as adaptations that work for single climate stresses could be maladaptive under combined stresses. An integrated understanding of heat and water in soil–plant–atmosphere dynamics is urgently needed to understand risks and suitably adapt cropping systems to compounding climate impacts.

Agroecology↗

NASA NTRS2023

Characterization of Low-Velocity Impact Damage in Thermoplastic Laminated Composites

The impact damage response of two thermoplastic material systems were compared over a range of impact energies. Eight-inch-square impact specimens with a 24-ply quasi-isotropic layup were manufactured from TC1225 LMPAEK T700G from Toray Industries and APC AS4D/PEKK-FC from Solvay. The effect of the degree of crystallinity (DOC) on the damage response was also investigated using a third set of specimens from the Toray material manufactured with reduced crystallinity. Using a combination of data obtained from X-ray computed tomography (CT) scans and ultrasonic testing (UT), detailed damage maps were created for every interface and ply for selected specimens. Using these damage maps, the delamination size, shape, and area were evaluated at each interface. The presence of fractured fibers was also identified on each ply. The LMPAEK material was found to have fewer and smaller delaminations than the PEKK specimens for impacts at the same energy. However, the LMPAEK specimens contained a larger number of fiber breaks. A similar trend was observed when comparing the baseline LMPAEK specimens with the low-crystallinity LMPAEK specimens. The low-crystallinity specimens had very little delamination but had a large number of plies with fiber breaks. In addition, the LMPAEK specimens often contained lines of fiber fractures in near-surface plies emanating from the contact region that were not present in the PEKK specimens.

Composite Materials↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Computational Fluid Dynamics Models of the NASA White Sands Test Facility Particle Impact Test Nozzles

The particle impact ignition mechanism is considered to be the most effective means for igniting metals in gaseous oxygen environments and is a concern for every oxygen system. For this reason, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) commits a large amount of resources attempting to understand and defend against this phenomenon. The most practical means of accomplishing this is through extensive of testing. To this end, over the years NASA has developed and built a facility and various apparatuses to test material or component vulnerability to a particle impact ignition. In testing materials, NASA uses sub-sonic and supersonic nozzles to replicate the conditions that a material is expected to experience in service. However, challenges include obtaining an understanding of the gas dynamics and of the particle behavior through and up to the point of impact at the material under test. One means of addressing these challenges is the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). If a CFD model can be built and validated, the model can then be used to confidently interrogate changes to inlet conditions and particle geometries, as well as changes to nozzle geometries to better simulate a material’s in-situ conditions and greatly reduce or eliminate trial-and-error approaches in testing. This paper will show NASA’s approach to and results of using CFD to better understand their particle impact nozzles.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Importance of Internal Climate Variability in Climate Impact Projections

Uncertainty in climate projections is driven by three components: scenario uncertainty, intermodel uncertainty, and internal variability. Although socioeconomic climate impact studies increasingly take into account the first two components, little attention has been paid to the role of internal variability, although underestimating this uncertainty may lead to underestimating the socioeconomic costs of climate change. Using large ensembles from seven coupled general circulation models with a total of 414 model runs, we partition the climate uncertainty in classic dose–response models relating county-level corn yield, mortality, and per-capita gross domestic product to temperature in the continental United States. The partitioning of uncertainty depends on the time frame of projection, the impact model, and the geographic region. Internal variability represents more than 50% of the total climate uncertainty in certain projections, including mortality projections for the early 21st century, although its relative influence decreases over time. We recommend including uncertainty due to internal variability for many projections of temperature-driven impacts, including early-century and midcentury projections, projections in regions with high internal variability such as the Upper Midwest United States, and impacts driven by nonlinear relationships.

climate impacts↗

NASA NTRS2023

Characterization of Low-Velocity Impact Damage in Thermoplastic Laminated Composites

Composite Materials↗

NASA NTRS2023

Microstructural Changes and Pb Mobility During the Zircon to Reidite Transformation: Implications for Planetary Impact Chronology

Impact events modify and leave behind a complex history of rock metamorphism on terrestrial planets. Evidence for an impact event may be recorded in physical changes to minerals, such as mineral deformation and formation of high P-T polymorphs, but also in the form of chemical fingerprints, such as enhanced elemental diffusion and isotopic mixing. Here we explore laboratory shock-induced physical and chemical changes to zircon and feldspar, the former of which is of interest because its trace elements abundances and isotope ratios are used extensively in geochemistry and geochronology. To this end, a granular mixture of Bishop Tuff sanidine and Kuehl Lake zircon, both with well characterized Pb isotope compositions, was prepared and then shocked via a flat plate accelerator. The peak pressure of the experiment, as calculated by the impedance matching method, was ~24 GPa although a broader range of P-T conditions is anticipated due to starting sample porosity. Unshocked and shocked materials were characterized via scanning electron microscopy (SEM), electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), and Raman spectroscopy. These methods show that the starting zircon material had abundant metamict regions, and the conversion of the feldspar to glass in the post-shock material. Analyses of the shocked product also yielded multiple occurrences of the high-pressure ZrSiO 4 polymorph reidite, with some domains up to 300 μm across. The possibility of U-Pb system disturbance was evaluated via laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) and secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). The isotopic data reveal that disturbance of the U-Pb geochronometer in the reidite was minimal (<2% for the main U-Pb geochronometers). To better constrain the P-T conditions during the shock experiment, we complement impedance matching pressure calculations with iSALE2D impact simulations. The simulated results yield a range of P-T conditions experienced during the experiment and show that much of the sample may have reached >30 GPa, which is consistent with formation of reidite. In the recovered shocked material, we identified lamellae of reidite, some of which interlock with zircon lamellae. Reidite {112} twins were identified, which we interpret to have formed to reduce stress between the crystal structure of the host zircon and reidite. These two findings support the interpretation that shear transformation enabled the transition of zircon to reidite. The size and presence of reidite found here indicate that this phase is probably common in impact-shocked crustal rocks that experienced ~25 to ~35 GPa, especially when the target material has porosity. Additionally, shock loading of the zircon and transformation to reidite at these pressures in porous materials is unlikely to significantly disturb the U-Pb system in zircon and that the reidite inherits the primary U and Pb elemental and isotopic ratios from the zircon.

Bishop Tuff↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Particle Impact Simulation and Ignition Prediction

An experimentally calibrated tool is needed to predict if a system is susceptible to failure by particle impact ignition (PI) based on use conditions, materials, and flow geometry. This tool will accelerate new components, evaluating existing hardware, and help disposition anomalies. Conduct particle impact testing with in-situ diagnostics and complementary simulations on subset of key engineering materials (IN718, M400, 316L, 6061, Ti64, Zr) to develop a proof-of-concept predictive tool for assessing the risk of PI for idealized geometries (spherical particles) in realistic environments. Assess particle/target interactions (coefficient of restitution, ignition, kindling) using instrumented particle impact rigs while systematically varying key parameters (materials, particle size, environment, target configuration). Determine key field variables (temperature, strain, stress) in particle impacts using Multiphysics finite element and hydrocode simulations validated through comparison with experimental measurements and observations. Synthesize experiments and simulations into constitutive models for PI that can be integrated with existing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and Debris Transport Analysis (DTA) tools in future efforts

particle impact↗

NASA NTRS2024

Impact Modification of Basalt, Gabbro, Serpentine – Effects on Spectral Properties

Powdered samples of Sheep Canyon basalt (Alpine, TX), Bushveldt gabbro, and serpentine (provenance unknown) were impacted at different speeds to explore spectral changes induced by the impact process. Understanding these changes enables identification and interpretation of remotely sampled rocky body surfaces. Post-impact materials were examined in the ultraviolet to visible (UV-Vis) to search for changes in spectral characteristics. Table 1 summarizes the samples and impact speeds examined.

Impact↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trade-Offs of Simplified Versus Comprehensive Representation of Mineralogy When Studying Dust Impacts on Earth’s Climate Systems

The intensity and direction of dust impacts on Earth’s climate systems depend on mineral composition. For example, the presence or absence of a few percent of iron oxides in dust will determine if dust is warming or cooling the atmosphere. Similarly, feldspar will enhance ice cloud formation, while acid gases in the atmosphere will react on the surface of dust calcite limiting acid rain. Still, most climate models use a simplified representation of dust mineralogy. They assume a fixed composition at emission which stays invariant during transport and removal. Such simplification assumes spatially and temporally constant physical and chemical properties of dust, and appears to provide satisfactory results when comparing some properties with observations. The trade-off is their lack of spatial gradients, which will fail to induce circulation, cloud and precipitation changes. The two reasons to omit mineral variations are the uncertainty of current atlases of soil mineral composition in arid regions, and, more practically, an improved runtime efficiency. The former reason is losing ground with the recent launch (July 2022) of a dedicated mission (NASA/JPL EMIT) to retrieve global soil mineralogy of dust sources at high spatial resolution. While the EMIT science team is finalizing a satisfactory global map of mineral composition of dust sources, we analyzed the interaction of dust mineralogy on radiation and its impact on the fast temperature response using different representations of mineral composition from detailed and spatially varying to simplified and globally uniform, assuming different hematite contents and methods to calculate optical properties. Our results show that resolving dust mineralogy reduces dust absorption, and results in improved agreement with observation-based single scattering albedo (SSA), radiative fluxes from CERES (the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System), and land surface temperature from CRU (Climatic Research Unit), compared to the baseline bulk dust model version. It also results in distinct radiative impacts on Earth’s climate over North Africa. From our 19-year simulation, we will show that it leads to a reduction of over 50% in net downward radiation at top of atmosphere (TOA) across the Sahara and an approximately 20% reduction over the Sahel. We will explain how the surface temperature response affects the monsoon flow from the Gulf of Guinea. Interestingly, we find similar results by simply fixing the hematite content of dust to a globally uniform value of 0.9% by volume. We will discuss the underlying reasons for such results and show that they may be unrelated to the distribution of soil mineralogy. Still, an accurate representation of soil mineralogy is necessary to better understand dust impacts on the Earth’s climate systems.

dust impacts↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Technology and Mission Variations on Aircraft Designed for Advanced Air Mobiity

NASA is conducting investigations in Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) aircraft and operations, including the development of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) aircraft designs that can be used to focus and guide research activities in support of AAM. This report is an investigation of the impact of technology and mission variations on several of the NASA AAM concept aircraft: quadrotor, quiet single main rotor, side-by-side, and tiltrotor configurations, with turboshaft and electric propulsion variants for each. First, the mission and aircraft models of the baseline designs were reassessed and updated, including rotor geometry optimization, update of the rotor performance models, and disk loading optimization. For these eight designs, technology and mission excursions were performed. Relative to the calibration cases that can be considered examples of good design practice, the impact of the weight technology factors is significant. For the electric aircraft, there is a very large impact of battery specific energy (Wh/kg), and correspondingly a very large impact of mission range. The vision of Advanced Air Mobility is driven by missions that will enable new transportation capabilities. Hence it is appropriate to compare Concept Vehicles of different lift and propulsive architectures, all designed to accomplish the same UAM mission. It is also useful however to consider specific missions that can take advantage of the strengths of individual aircraft configurations. So alternate designs were also developed for the concept vehicles: for turboshaft aircraft, longer unrefueled range, including faster cruise speed for the tiltrotor; for electric aircraft, shorter range and more realistic battery weight.

Technology↗

DOE OSTI2020

Identification of Worst Impact Zones for Power Grids During Extreme Weather Events Using Q-Learning: Preprint

Both the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have been trending higher in recent years, leading to significant infrastructure loss in the electric grid. The impact of these extreme weather events is desired to be analyzed and quantified in order to help transmission and distribution system operators to prepare and prevent significant losses. In this paper, we developed an approach that models the impact of extreme weather on the power grid and identifies the worst impact zone using Q-learning (a reinforcement learning approach). The identification results reveal grid vulnerability to weather events and provide insights for system operators to help achieve optimal resource allocation and crew dispatch in order to minimize the adverse impact of extreme weather. Simulation studies are conducted on the IEEE 123-node system to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of Economic Impact of Permitting Timelines on Produced Geothermal Power in Imperial County, California

Despite having a large geothermal power potential in the United States, only a small fraction has been developed for power generation. Various barriers, including technical, financial, and regulatory permit delays, are attributed to lower contribution of geothermal energy in the national grid. Unpredictable environmental reviews and permitting timelines are some of the non-technical barriers that can cause delays in geothermal exploration and utilization plans. Our study shows that the geothermal permitting timelines can vary from six months to several years, depending on the presence or absence of biological resources, cultural resources, and sensitive environmental issues at the project site. The potential impacts of these permit barriers can range from investors abandoning geothermal development to making the product (i.e., electricity) more expensive and uncompetitive. In this study, we conducted economic analysis to assess the impact of permitting timelines on cost of produced electricity from geothermal resources using data from existing geothermal plants as well as prospective sites. In this paper, we present collected timelines data, approach, and results of economic impact of permitting timelines on geothermal power. We evaluated the various environmental management and permit review processes by considering a hypothetical geothermal project in the Salton Sea Known Geothermal Resource Area. Because of the variety of the biological and environmental issues and the involvement of local, state, and federal agencies with overlapping jurisdictions, this project could go through one of the many California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) review scenarios that range from the least to the most complex in its circumstances. The fastest CEQA/NEPA review timelines would have the project completed in six years. In contrast, the project would substantially need longer time to complete if it were located in an area with significant environmental resources or cultural issues that required permitting from various agencies. With increasing project completion timelines, the simplified levelized cost of electricity (sLCOE) can be 4 to 11% higher with longer CEQA/NEPA review timelines than the sLCOE value with the fastest CEQA/NEPA review timeline. Lengthier CEQA/NEPA review timelines could also result in loss of $64 million to $227 million in potential revenue. Such significant economic impacts could determine the success of a geothermal project.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

CyTRICS Impact-Based Prioritization Process

Cyber Testing for Resilient Industrial Control Systems™ (CyTRICS™) is the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) program for cybersecurity vulnerability testing, digital subcomponent enumeration, and forensic assessment. CyTRICS leverages best-in-class test facilities and analytic capabilities at six DOE National Laboratories and strategic partnerships with key stakeholders including technology developers, manufacturers, asset owners and operators, and interagency partners. During the program’s development, CyTRICS established a unique methodology for prioritizing digital components within operational technology (OT) and industrial control systems (ICS) in the Energy Sector Industrial Base (ESIB) for cyber vulnerability testing. The CyTRICS prioritization process leverages multiple characteristics of systems, components, and their contextual deployment to calculate a quantification of individual digital components for CyTRICS testing. The initial version of the CyTRICS prioritization process was premised largely upon the impact which could result to an energy sector industrial control system if the digital component under testing was compromised, either through malicious means, faulty engineering, or other modes. CyTRICS has termed this process the “CyTRICS Impact-based Prioritization Process.” This paper describes the factors identified for use in the Impact-based Prioritization process and identifies the rationale for inclusion. During development, three National Laboratories piloted this prioritization process and generated prioritization scores for seven systems. Following the piloting of the process, laboratory subject matter experts (SME) validated that the numerical scores generated by the prioritization process were consistent with their knowledge of the impact that may occur should any of these systems be disrupted. The following document explains how to perform the prioritization process to generate prioritization scores for energy sector systems. After outlining assumptions required to conduct the process, it describes how to identify and elicit data which can be leveraged to evaluate a system and assign numerical values for each factor. The prioritization process uses different weights on different factors; rationale for each weight is included within the paper. Additionally, the paper includes some recommendations for future enhancements to prioritization, including lessons learned from developing and piloting the process. Finally, a comprehensive appendix includes example documents to be leveraged by those looking to execute the prioritization process.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Microparticle impact-bonding modes for mismatched metals: From co-deformation to splatting and penetration

In this paper we present a comprehensive experimental campaign of high-velocity microparticle impacts with different combinations of particle and substrate materials to identify possible deformation regimes. Based on experimental observations of the impact sites, we identify three typical modes of behavior, namely, splatting, co-deformation, and penetration. We develop a theoretical framework to predict the operative bonding regime for a given particle/substrate combination, ranging from splatting and penetration at two extremes of a spectrum, and co-deformation in the center. We propose an impact ratio based on the materials’ properties, which can successfully quantify the spectrum. Co-deformation is expected when the ratio is around unity, while much larger or smaller ratios give rise to penetration and splatting, respectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2021

Climate Impacts on Global Agriculture Emerge Earlier in New Generation of Climate and Crop Models

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to −6% (SSP126) and from +1% to −24% (SSP585)—explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO 2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections—before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

crop model↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulation study of chemo-mechanical impacts of CO 2 injection in morrow b sandstone reservoir

Here, this study investigates the impacts of geomechanical and geochemical changes on carbon storage in a partially depleted oil reservoir, using results from four different coupled simulation models. Models were used to examine the relative importance of storage mechanisms, and how changing reservoir parameters might affect these mechanisms through time. The study uses data from a Morrowan sandstone reservoir in the Farnsworth Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas which is currently undergoing CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Partially depleted oil reservoirs such as the FWU offer attractive carbon utilization and/or storage targets because of existing infrastructure and economic benefits from incremental oil recovery as well as tax credits. However, prediction of storage capacity or long-term fluid migration in these fields can be difficult because of the wide variation in formation fluids and operational histories that may have undergone. CO 2 injection can cause complex geomechanical and geochemical responses in a reservoir as a result of interplay between dynamic changes in pore pressure, reservoir temperature, fluid composition, and interactions between formation fluids, CO 2 , and reservoir rock. Thus, multiple coupled numerical simulation models must be developed and used to more precisely understand what CO 2 storage mechanisms are most significant, as well as the long-term fate of the stored CO 2 . Our study used results from hydrodynamic, coupled hydro-geomechanical, coupled hydro-geochemical, and coupled hydro-geomechanical-geochemical models to examine how changes in geomechanical and geochemical properties can impact the injectivity or storage capacity of CO 2 . Models simulated historical field operations and then forward-modeled a water-alternate-gas (WAG) operation for 20 years, followed by a 1000-year post-injection monitoring. The work demonstrates that in this specific reservoir, geomechanical impacts appear to be more significant than any geochemical processes, which showed minimal impact on reservoir properties. Furthermore, these simulation scenarios corroborated other studies showing more than 90% of CO 2 injected are being stored and will remain stored in the reservoir. The study was able to draw on a rich set of data from this currently operational project for the work. Because the Morrow is a widespread oil-bearing reservoir in the midcontinent of the United States and is fairly typical of many sandstone reservoirs elsewhere, the study has significance beyond the boundaries of our field area.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multidecadal Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program assessing human impacts on aquatic ecosystems within the Oak Ridge Reservation in eastern Tennessee, USA

Human activities can be powerful drivers of ecosystem change within catchments. While most long-term catchment studies have been conducted at pristine sites, such studies are less common from sites more impacted by human activity. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program (BMAP) was developed in the mid-1980s to (1) assess compliance with environmental regulations, (2) identify causes of adverse ecological impacts, (3) provide data for human and ecological risk assessments, and (4) evaluate the effectiveness of remedial actions taken to mitigate the impacts of contaminants in soils, groundwater, and surface water by documenting ecological recovery on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), a federally owned 33,476-acre site in eastern Tennessee, USA, managed by the U.S. Department of Energy. The ORR is composed of multiple watersheds containing many small to mid-size streams. BMAP uses an integrated approach for determining stream health; its databases include long-term seasonal records of contaminant concentrations in water and biota, data from aquatic toxicity testing, and surveys of macroinvertebrate and fish assemblages from impacted and reference streams. These long-term data provide valuable records of degradation and recovery in catchment ecosystems. Our objective in this work is to describe our study system and data series in order to increase awareness of the availability of these long-term data to the catchment science community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗