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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

Unpacking Modeling Analysis for the Circular Economy

This session will cover: (1) How models simulate material recovery, recycling, product life cycles and waste management. (2) Using life cycle analysis (LCA) to measure environmental impacts across product life cycles and guide decision-making. (3) Optimizing resource use, reducing energy consumption and minimizing waste in recycling systems. (4) Evaluating EPR and other interventions through scenario analysis to make informed decisions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Generation Mechanisms UV and X-ray Emissions During SL9 Impact

The purpose of this grant was to study the ultraviolet and X-ray emissions associated with the impact of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 with Jupiter. The University of Michigan task was primarily focused on theoretical calculations. The NAGW-4788 subtask was to be largely devoted to determining the constraints placed by the X-ray observations on the physical mechanisms responsible for the generation of the X-rays. Author summarized below the ROSAT observations and suggest a physical mechanism that can plausibly account for the observed emissions. It is hoped that the full set of activities can be completed at a later date. Further analysis of the ROSAT data acquired at the time of the impact was necessary to define the observational constraints on the magnetospheric-ionospheric processes involved in the excitation of the X-ray emissions associated with the fragment impacts. This analysis centered around improvements in the pointing accuracy and improvements in the timing information. Additional pointing information was made possible by the identification of the optical counterparts to the X-ray sources in the ROSAT field-of-view. Due to the large number of worldwide observers of the impacts, a serendipitous visible plate image from an observer in Venezuela provided a very accurate location of the present position of the X-ray source, virtually eliminating pointing errors in the data. Once refined, the pointing indicated that the two observed X-ray brightenings that were highly correlated in time with the K and P2 events were brightenings of the X-ray aurora (as identified in images prior to the impact).Appendix A "ROSAT observations of X-ray emissions from Jupiter during the impact of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9' also included.

Waite, J. Hunter, Jr.↗

Multi-Modal Energy Analysis for Freight

This project addresses the impact of emerging technologies on inter-city freight energy demand, shipping time, and cost. Technologies addressed include electrified long-haul trucks, connectivity and efficient operations, and platooning. The research questions are addressed using national level analysis, a multi-modal inter-city freight energy model, and development of a Freight Mobility Energy Productivity (F-MEP) metric. This project improves on prior analysis and modeling by increasing the geographic and temporal resolution of freight flows. The inter-city freight energy model uses a bi-level optimization approach to minimize total network cost (lower level) and energy (upper level). Two new F-MEP frameworks are presented, one for intra-city freight mobility and one for inter-city freight mobility.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Regression Verification Using Impact Summaries

Regression verification techniques are used to prove equivalence of syntactically similar programs. Checking equivalence of large programs, however, can be computationally expensive. Existing regression verification techniques rely on abstraction and decomposition techniques to reduce the computational effort of checking equivalence of the entire program. These techniques are sound but not complete. In this work, we propose a novel approach to improve scalability of regression verification by classifying the program behaviors generated during symbolic execution as either impacted or unimpacted. Our technique uses a combination of static analysis and symbolic execution to generate summaries of impacted program behaviors. The impact summaries are then checked for equivalence using an o-the-shelf decision procedure. We prove that our approach is both sound and complete for sequential programs, with respect to the depth bound of symbolic execution. Our evaluation on a set of sequential C artifacts shows that reducing the size of the summaries can help reduce the cost of software equivalence checking. Various reduction, abstraction, and compositional techniques have been developed to help scale software verification techniques to industrial-sized systems. Although such techniques have greatly increased the size and complexity of systems that can be checked, analysis of large software systems remains costly. Regression analysis techniques, e.g., regression testing [16], regression model checking [22], and regression verification [19], restrict the scope of the analysis by leveraging the differences between program versions. These techniques are based on the idea that if code is checked early in development, then subsequent versions can be checked against a prior (checked) version, leveraging the results of the previous analysis to reduce analysis cost of the current version. Regression verification addresses the problem of proving equivalence of closely related program versions [19]. These techniques compare two programs with a large degree of syntactic similarity to prove that portions of one program version are equivalent to the other. Regression verification can be used for guaranteeing backward compatibility, and for showing behavioral equivalence in programs with syntactic differences, e.g., when a program is refactored to improve its performance, maintainability, or readability. Existing regression verification techniques leverage similarities between program versions by using abstraction and decomposition techniques to improve scalability of the analysis [10, 12, 19]. The abstractions and decomposition in the these techniques, e.g., summaries of unchanged code [12] or semantically equivalent methods [19], compute an over-approximation of the program behaviors. The equivalence checking results of these techniques are sound but not complete-they may characterize programs as not functionally equivalent when, in fact, they are equivalent. In this work we describe a novel approach that leverages the impact of the differences between two programs for scaling regression verification. We partition program behaviors of each version into (a) behaviors impacted by the changes and (b) behaviors not impacted (unimpacted) by the changes. Only the impacted program behaviors are used during equivalence checking. We then prove that checking equivalence of the impacted program behaviors is equivalent to checking equivalence of all program behaviors for a given depth bound. In this work we use symbolic execution to generate the program behaviors and leverage control- and data-dependence information to facilitate the partitioning of program behaviors. The impacted program behaviors are termed as impact summaries. The dependence analyses that facilitate the generation of the impact summaries, we believe, could be used in conjunction with other abstraction and decomposition based approaches, [10, 12], as a complementary reduction technique. An evaluation of our regression verification technique shows that our approach is capable of leveraging similarities between program versions to reduce the size of the queries and the time required to check for logical equivalence. The main contributions of this work are: - A regression verification technique to generate impact summaries that can be checked for functional equivalence using an off-the-shelf decision procedure. - A proof that our approach is sound and complete with respect to the depth bound of symbolic execution. - An implementation of our technique using the LLVMcompiler infrastructure, the klee Symbolic Virtual Machine [4], and a variety of Satisfiability Modulo Theory (SMT) solvers, e.g., STP [7] and Z3 [6]. - An empirical evaluation on a set of C artifacts which shows that the use of impact summaries can reduce the cost of regression verification.

Backes, John↗

Technical Considerations on MURR Control Blade Design Change and Testing using a New Metal Matrix Composite

The University of Missouri Research Reactor (MURR) is one of six research reactors, including a critical facility, that are pursuing conversion as part of a collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration Material Management and Minimization Office of Reactor Conversion and Uranium Supply, under the U.S. High Performance Research Reactors (USHPRR) conversion project. Five of the six USHPRR are planned to convert from highly enriched uranium (HEU) fuel using a low-enriched uranium (LEU) high assay monolithic alloy of uranium-10 wt% molybdenum (U-10Mo). As part of the conversion safety analysis, it is necessary to demonstrate the safety performance of the proposed core fueled with LEU as compared to the current HEU cores. The MURR reactor is planning to switch to a new control blade design that uses a metal matrix composite of boron carbide (B 4 C) and aluminum as the absorber in place of Boral®. Since MURR is expected to adopt the new metal matrix composite control blade design prior to conversion, the impact of the new blade design on the neutronics characteristics of the MURR cores for conversion are analyzed in this work through updates to incorporate the changes to the blade design in conversion models as they directly impact the LEU conversion safety analysis. The quantitative comparison shows that the neutronics and thermal hydraulic behavior of one metal matrix composite blade replacing a Boral blade is comparable for the two example MURR LEU and HEU cores states considered. Geometrical changes in the metal matrix composite blade design, combined with a 4% increase in areal boron density, showed local heating effects up to 20% higher than the Boral design. As expected, the metal matrix composite showed slightly lower heat depositions and absorber region temperatures for the LEU cases compared to HEU. Although this analysis was comparative for a single blade, maximum control blade temperatures for both Boral, metal matrix composite, and HEU/LEU remained below 100 °C, though additional analysis at a core level could differ. A qualitative irradiation behavior assessment concludes that the mechanisms that may drive swelling and blistering in the current Boral design are eased by the adoption of the metal matrix composite design. The work concludes that the two blade designs are essentially equivalent with regards to neutronics, thermal hydraulics, and expected material behavior under irradiation. However, due to the geometrical changes to the blades including redesigned and thinner cladding, new testing and increased surveillance for distortion and swelling are recommended to confirm the performance of the metal matrix composite control blade design. Where testing is completed prior to conversion, the only anticipated impacts on conversion to LEU U-10Mo fuel would be the need for models and safety analysis incorporating the metal matrix composite control blades.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Equitable Electrification Analysis for Existing Buildings in Richmond, CA [Slides]

Since June 2022, NREL has provided technical assistance in the form of research and analysis in order to support the City of Richmond in identifying strategies to equitably transition its existing buildings from reliance on natural gas to clean electricity. Building on data from the ResStock and ComStock tools, the analysis looked at the potential impacts of building envelope and electrification improvements on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, residential utility bills, jobs and employment, and indoor air quality. This presentation summarizes the findings from that research and analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evaluating the energy impact potential of energy efficiency measures for retrofit applications: A case study with U.S. medium office buildings

Quantifying the energy savings of various energy efficiency measures (EEMs) for an energy retrofit project often necessitates an energy audit and detailed whole building energy modeling to evaluate the EEMs; however, this is often cost-prohibitive for small and medium buildings. In order to provide a defined guideline for projects with assumed common baseline characteristics, this paper applies a sensitivity analysis method to evaluate the impact of individual EEMs and groups these into packages to produce deep energy savings for a sample prototype medium office building across 15 climate zones in the United States. We start with one baseline model for each climate zone and nine candidate EEMs with a range of efficiency levels for each EEM. Three energy performance indicators (EPIs) are defined, which are annual electricity use intensity, annual natural gas use intensity, and annual energy cost. Then, a Standard Regression Coefficient (SRC) sensitivity analysis method is applied to determine the sensitivity of each EEM with respect to the three EPIs, and the relative sensitivity of all EEMs are calculated to evaluate their energy impacts. For the selected range of efficiency levels, the results indicate that the EEMs with higher energy impacts (i.e., higher sensitivity) in most climate zones are high-performance windows, reduced interior lighting power, and reduced interior plug and process loads. However, the sensitivity of the EEMs also vary by climate zone and EPI; for example, improved opaque envelope insulation and efficiency of cooling and heating systems are found to have a high energy impact in cold and hot climates.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evaluation of Thermal Control Coatings for Flexible Ceramic Thermal Protection Systems

This report summarizes the evaluation and testing of high emissivity protective coatings applied to flexible insulations for the Reusable Launch Vehicle technology program. Ceramic coatings were evaluated for their thermal properties, durability, and potential for reuse. One of the major goals was to determine the mechanism by which these coated blanket surfaces become brittle and try to modify the coatings to reduce or eliminate embrittlement. Coatings were prepared from colloidal silica with a small percentage of either SiC or SiB6 as the emissivity agent. These coatings are referred to as gray C-9 and protective ceramic coating (PCC), respectively. The colloidal solutions were either brushed or sprayed onto advanced flexible reusable surface insulation blankets. The blankets were instrumented with thermocouples and exposed to reentry heating conditions in the Ames Aeroheating Arc Jet Facility. Post-test samples were then characterized through impact testing, emissivity measurements, chemical analysis, and observation of changes in surface morphology. The results show that both coatings performed well in arc jet tests with backface temperatures slightly lower for the PCC coating than with gray C-9. Impact testing showed that the least extensive surface destruction was experienced on blankets with lower areal density coatings.

Kourtides, Demetrius↗

Cross-Section Comparison for Pu-238 Production in the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory

Qualification of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) positions for Pu-238 production has been ongoing at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The ATR qualifications have stretched over multiple years during which new techniques have been developed and made available for ATR experiment neutronic analysis. As part of the transition to newer codes, new cross-section libraries have been evaluated for use in the Pu-238 production experiment analysis. A comparative study was done using the MCNP ORGIEN Activation Analysis (MOAA) tool between ENDF/B-VII.0 and ENDF/B-VIII.0 cross sections to capture the impact of the change in cross-sections on the analysis needed to qualify Pu-238 production targets. All comparisons were done assuming the ATR GEN-I targets were located in the south flux trap of the ATR. Finally, an overview of how this qualification and potential irradiation fits into Pu-238 is discussed.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Formation of the central uplift in meteoric craters

Data are presented on the sizes of impact craters with central uplifts on the earth, moon, and terrestrial planets. It is proposed that the central uplift of the Kara crater in the USSR was formed by impact metamorphism of rocks along a crater having a depth of about 600 meters. A theoretical analysis of the mechanics of hypervelocity impact cratering is used to investigate the features of shock-wave attenuation in the depths of the target and the amount of impact melt formed during this process. An attempt is made to determine the velocity of rock motion during the formation of central uplifts in terrestrial craters.

Ivanov, B. A.↗

The NASA JSC Hypervelocity Impact Test Facility (HIT-F)

The NASA Johnson Space Center Hypervelocity Impact Test Facility was created in 1980 to study the hypervelocity impact characteristics of composite materials. The facility consists of the Hypervelocity Impact Laboratory (HIRL) and the Hypervelocity Analysis Laboratory (HAL). The HIRL supports three different-size light-gas gun ranges which provide the capability of launching particle sizes from 100 micron spheres to 12.7 mm cylinders. The HAL performs three functions: (1) the analysis of data collected from shots in the HIRL, (2) numerical and analytical modeling to predict impact response beyond test conditions, and (3) risk and damage assessments for spacecraft exposed to the meteoroid and orbital debris environments.

Crews, Jeanne L.↗

Lunar Exploration Architecture Level Key Drivers and Sensitivities

Strategic level analysis of the integrated behavior of lunar transportation and lunar surface systems architecture options is performed to assess the benefit, viability, affordability, and robustness of system design choices. This analysis employs both deterministic and probabilistic modeling techniques so that the extent of potential future uncertainties associated with each option are properly characterized. The results of these analyses are summarized in a predefined set of high-level Figures of Merit (FOMs) so as to provide senior NASA Constellation Program (CxP) and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) management with pertinent information to better inform strategic level decision making. The strategic level exploration architecture model is designed to perform analysis at as high a level as possible but still capture those details that have major impacts on system performance. The strategic analysis methodology focuses on integrated performance, affordability, and risk analysis, and captures the linkages and feedbacks between these three areas. Each of these results leads into the determination of the high-level FOMs. This strategic level analysis methodology has been previously applied to Space Shuttle and International Space Station assessments and is now being applied to the development of the Constellation Program point-of-departure lunar architecture. This paper provides an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and the lunar exploration architecture analyses to date. In studying these analysis results, the strategic analysis team has identified and characterized key drivers affecting the integrated architecture behavior. These key drivers include inclusion of a cargo lander, mission rate, mission location, fixed-versus- variable costs/return on investment, and the requirement for probabilistic analysis. Results of sensitivity analysis performed on lunar exploration architecture scenarios are also presented.

Goodliff, Kandyce↗

Critical impact of experimentally-driven strut level anisotropic material models in advanced stress analysis of additively manufactured lattice structures

The rapid acceleration in materials discovery may overshadow the importance of thoroughly understanding the mechanical performance of newly developed materials in demanding environments. The recent interest in combining parametric studies with machine learning techniques to explore how changes in specific processing parameters or model inputs affect the overall behavior of a material system can only be truly beneficial if the governing constitutive relations describing material behavior are accurately established. In this study, we demonstrate the critical impact of accurately representing strut-level anisotropic material behavior in advanced stress analysis of additively manufactured lattice structures (AMLS). We introduce a systematic experimental and modeling approach for developing strut-level anisotropic elastoplastic material models that account for the influence of microstructural features such as porosity, texture, and surface roughness on the development of local anisotropic mechanical properties, which vary with strut orientation relative to the build direction (BD). As a result the presented material model captures and relates the statistics of spatially varying struts’ microstructural features to the local stress distribution. Our findings suggest that incorporating strut-level anisotropic material behavior into unit cell analysis significantly influences the load distribution and evolution of local stresses within the structure. Therefore, accounting for this anisotropy is critical for developing an understanding of unit cell behavior and performance, including subsequent topology/component design optimization based on this analysis.

Sahoo, Subhadip [University of Arizona]↗

The LSST DESC data challenge 1: generation and analysis of synthetic images for next-generation surveys

Data Challenge 1 (DC1) is the first synthetic data set produced by the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC). DC1 is designed to develop and validate data reduction and analysis and to study the impact of systematic effects that will affect the LSST data set. DC1 is comprised of r -band observations of 40 deg 2 to 10 yr LSST depth. In this paper, we present each stage of the simulation and analysis process: (a) generation, by synthesizing sources from cosmological N -body simulations in individual sensor-visit images with different observing conditions; (b) reduction using a development version of the LSST Science Pipelines; and (c) matching to the input cosmological catalogue for validation and testing. We verify that testable LSST requirements pass within the fidelity of DC1. We establish a selection procedure that produces a sufficiently clean extragalactic sample for clustering analyses and we discuss residual sample contamination, including contributions from inefficiency in star–galaxy separation and imperfect deblending. We compute the galaxy power spectrum on the simulated field and conclude that: (i) survey properties have an impact of 50 per cent of the statistical uncertainty for the scales and models used in DC1; (ii) a selection to eliminate artefacts in the catalogues is necessary to avoid biases in the measured clustering; and (iii) the presence of bright objects has a significant impact (2σ–6σ) in the estimated power spectra at small scales (ℓ > 1200), highlighting the impact of blending in studies at small angular scales in LSST.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Depth-diameter ratios for Martian impact craters: Implications for target properties and episodes of degradation

This study determines crater depth through use of photoclinometric profiles. Random checks of the photoclinometric results are performed using shadow estimation techniques. The images are Viking Orbiter digital format frames; in cases where the digital image is unusable for photoclinometric analysis, shadow estimation is used to determine crater depths. The two techniques provide depth results within 2 percent of each other. Crater diameters are obtained from the photoclinometric profiles and checked against the diameters measured from the hard-copy images using a digitizer. All images used in this analysis are of approximately 40 m/pixel resolution. The sites that have been analyzed to date include areas within Arabia, Maja Valles, Memnonia, Acidalia, and Elysium. Only results for simple craters (craters less than 5 km in diameter) are discussed here because of the low numbers of complex craters presently measured in the analysis. General results indicate that impact craters are deeper than average. A single d/D relationship for fresh impact craters on Mars does not exist due to changes in target properties across the planet's surface. Within regions where target properties are approximately constant, however, d/D ratios for fresh craters can be determined. In these regions, the d/D ratios of nonpristine craters can be compared with the fresh crater d/D relationship to obtain information on relative degrees of crater degradation. This technique reveals that regional episodes of enhanced degradation have occurred. However, the lack of statistically reliable size-frequency distribution data prevents comparison of the relative ages of these events between different regions, and thus determination of a large-scale episode (or perhaps several episodes) cannot be made at this time.

Barlow, N. G.↗

Flight Test Analysis of the Forces and Moments Imparted on a B737-100 Airplane During Wake Vortex Encounters

Aircraft travel has become a major form of transportation. Several of our major airports are operating near their capacity limit, increasing congestion and delays for travelers. As a result, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been working in conjunction with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), airline operators, and the airline industry to increase airport capacity without sacrificing public safety. One solution to the problem is to increase the number of airports and build new. runways; yet, this solution is becoming increasingly difficult due to limited space. A better solution is to increase the production per runway. This solution increases the possibility that one aircraft will encounter the trailing wake of another aircraft. Hazardous wake vortex encounters occur when an aircraft encounters the wake produced by a heavier aircraft. This heavy-load aircraft produces high-intensity wake turbulence that redistributes the aerodynamic loads of trailing smaller aircraft. This situation is particularly hazardous for smaller aircraft during takeoffs and landings. In order to gain a better understanding of the wake-vortex/aircraft encounter phenomena, NASA Langley Research Center conducted a series of flight tests from 1995 through 1997. These tests were designed to gather data for the development a wake encounter and wake-measurement data set with the accompanying atmospheric state information. This data set is being compiled into a database that can be used by wake vortex researchers to compare with experimental and computational results. The purpose of this research is to derive and implement a procedure for calculating the wake-vortex/aircraft interaction portion of that database by using the data recorded during those flight tests. There were three objectives to this research. Initially, the wake-induced forces and moments from each flight were analyzed based on varying flap deflection angles. The flap setting alternated between 15 and 30 degrees while the separation distance remained constant. This examination was performed to determine if increases in flap deflection would increase or decrease the effects of the wake-induced forces and moments. Next, the wake-induced forces and moments from each flight were analyzed based on separation distances of 1-3 nautical miles. In this comparison, flap deflection was held constant at 30 degrees. The purpose of this study was to determine if increased separation distances reduced the effects of the wake vortex on the aircraft. The last objective compared the wake-induced forces and moments of each flight as it executed a series of maneuvers through the wake-vortex. This analysis was conducted to examine the impact of the wake on the B737 as it traversed the wake horizontally and vertically. Results from the first analysis indicated that there was no difference in wake effect at flap deflections of 15 and 30 degrees. This conclusion is evidenced in the cases of the wake-induced sideforce, rolling moment, and yawing moment. The wake-induced lift, drag, and pitching moment cases yielded less conclusive results. The second analysis compared the wake-induced forces and moments at separation distances of 1-3 nautical miles. Results indicated that there was no significant difference in the wake-induced lift, drag, sideforce, or yawing moment coefficients. The analysis compared the wake-induced forces and moments based on different flight maneuvers. It was found that the wake-induced forces and moments had the greatest impact on out-to-in and in-to-out maneuvers.

Roberts, Chistopher L.↗

A Multi-Band Microwave Analysis Of Precipitation Within Two Winter Cyclones

- IMPACTS involved two NASA aircraft - the in situ P-3B and the remote sensing ER-2 - observing winter storms during Jan-Feb 2020 - Cyclone comma head is a complex locus for precipitation and banding - Multi-instrument, multi-channel analysis has proven useful in investigating these environments - Dual Frequency Ratio (DFR) can improve microphysical retrievals within cloud masses - Objective: assess retrieval capabilities of instruments; investigate storm structure/microphysical signatures

Amanda Richter↗

Cruise-Efficient Short Takeoff and Landing (CESTOL): Potential Impact on Air Traffic Operations

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is investigating technological and operational concepts for introducing Cruise-Efficient Short Takeoff and Landing (CESTOL) aircraft into a future US National Airspace System (NAS) civil aviation environment. CESTOL is an aircraft design concept for future use to increase capacity and reduce emissions. CESTOL provides very flexible takeoff, climb, descent and landing performance capabilities and a high-speed cruise capability. In support of NASA, this study is a preliminary examination of the potential operational impact of CESTOL on airport and airspace capacity and delay. The study examines operational impacts at a subject site, Newark Liberty Intemational Airport (KEWR), New Jersey. The study extends these KEWR results to estimate potential impacts on NAS-wide network traffic operations due to the introduction of CESTOL at selected major airports. These are the 34 domestic airports identified in the Federal Aviation Administration's Operational Evolution Plan (OEP). The analysis process uses two fast-time simulation tools to separately model local and NAS-wide air traffic operations using predicted flight schedules for a 24-hour study period in 2016. These tools are the Sen sis AvTerminal model and NASA's Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES). We use both to simulate conventional-aircraft-only and CESTOL-mixed-with-conventional-aircraft operations. Both tools apply 4-dimension trajectory modeling to simulate individual flight movement. The study applies AvTerminal to model traffic operations and procedures for en route and terminal arrival and departures to and from KEWR. These AvTerminal applications model existing arrival and departure routes and profiles and runway use configurations, with the assumption jet-powered, large-sized civil CESTOL aircraft use a short runway and standard turboprop arrival and departure procedures. With these rules, the conventional jet and CESTOL aircraft are procedurally separated from each other geographically and in altitude during tenninal airspace approach and departure operations, and each use a different arrival runway. AvTeminal implements its unique Focal-point Scheduling Process to sequence, space and delay aircraft to resolve spacing and overtake conflicts among flights in the airspace and airport system serving KEWR. This Process effectively models integrated arrival and departure operations. AvTerminal assesses acceptance rates and delay magnitude and causality at selected locations, including en route outer boundary fixes, tenninal airspace arrival and departure boundary fixes, terminal airspace arrival merge and departure diverge fixes, and runway landing and takeoff runways. The analysis compares the resulting capacity impacts, flight delays and delay sources between CESTOL and conventional KEWR operations. AvTerminal quantitative results showed that CESTOL has significant capability to increase airport arrival acceptance rates (35-40% at KEWR) by taking advantage of otherwise underused airspace and runways where available. The study extrapolates the AvTerminal-derived KEWR peak arrival and departure acceptance rates to estimate capacity parameter values for each of the OEP airports in the ACES modeling of traffic through the entire NAS network. The extrapolations of acceptance rates allow full, partial or no achievement of CESTOL capacity gains at an OEP airport as determined by assessments of the degree to which local procedures allow leveraging of CESTOL capabilities. These assessments consider each OEP airport's runway geometries, runway system configurations, airport and airspace operations, and potential CESTOL traffic loadings. The ACES modeling, simulates airport and airspace spacing constraints imposed by airport runway system, terminal and en route air traffic control and traffic flow management operations using airport acceptance rates representing conventional-aircraft-only and CESTOL-mixed operations. CEOL aircraft are assumed to have Mach 0.8, and alternatively Mach 0.7, cruise speeds to examine compatibility with conventional aircraft operations in common airspace. The ACES results provides estimates of CESTOL delay impact NAS-wide and at OEP airports due to changes in OEP airport acceptance rates and changes in en route airspace potential conflict rates. Preliminary results show meaningful nationwide delay reductions (20%) due to CESTOL operations at 34 major domestic airports.

Couluris, G. J.↗