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At least 1,315 records · Page 73

Machine learning for the identification of phase transitions in interacting agent-based systems: A Desai-Zwanzig example

Deriving closed-form analytical expressions for reduced-order models, and judiciously choosing the closures leading to them, has long been the strategy of choice for studying phase- and noise-induced transitions for agent-based models (ABMs). In this paper, we propose a data-driven framework that pinpoints phase transitions for an ABM—the Desai-Zwanzig model—in its mean-field limit, using a smaller number of variables than traditional closed-form models. To this end, we use the manifold learning algorithm Diffusion Maps to identify a parsimonious set of data-driven latent variables, and we show that they are in one-to-one correspondence with the expected theoretical order parameter of the ABM. We then utilize a deep learning framework to obtain a conformal reparametrization of the data-driven coordinates that facilitates, in our example, the identification of a single parameter-dependent ordinary differential equation (ODE) in these coordinates. Additionally, we identify this ODE through a residual neural network inspired by a numerical integration scheme (forward Euler). We then use the identified ODE—enabled through an odd symmetry transformation—to construct the bifurcation diagram exhibiting the phase transition.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimal Network Reconfiguration and Scheduling With Hardware-in-the-Loop Validation for Improved Microgrid Resilience

With the increased occurrence of various major extreme weather events, power outages and prompt power system restorations have recently drawn more attention to the resilience and recovery of power systems. From the perspective of a more resilient power delivery at the distribution grid, system restoration using network topology reconfiguration together with optimal scheduling of distributed energy resources are adopted in this paper. The proposed optimization model aims at minimizing the total load shedding cost and other operational costs, in which linearized topological constraints borrowed from graph theory and linearized DistFlow models are respectively used to maintain the radial network topology and power flow balance after system contingencies. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed strategy, a real-world case study of a networked three-microgrid system in Adjuntas, Puerto Rico, is used with the consideration of different independent/interconnected microgrid scenarios, contingencies, and fairness settings. Furthermore, hardware-in-the-loop testing is conducted for the same three-microgrid network, where the closely matched results with the simulated ones have validated the effectiveness of the proposed restoration strategy, which is now ready to move one step forward towards field deployment. Finally, to test the proposed restoration strategy in a larger networked system, the modified IEEE-33 bus test distribution system is considered, and the results show a more resilient power delivery for critical loads under three and four line outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Benchmarking Monte Carlo codes for the modelling of low-energy neutron production target reactions

The increasing adoption of accelerator-based neutron sources (ABNS) for applications including neutron capture therapy (NCT) research has highlighted the need for accurate simulation tools. Precise modelling of the neutron production target is crucial to ensure that simulated predictions of neutron beam characteristics used for subsequent beam shaping assembly design are reliable. This work presents a comprehensive benchmarking of four widely-used Monte Carlo codes - Geant4, PHITS, FLUKA (CERN), and MCNP - for modelling low-energy neutron production target reactions. Using their recommended physics models and cross-section libraries, we evaluate each code’s performance in simulating four beam-target reactions: 7 Li(p,n) 7 Be, 9 Be(p,n) 9 B, 9 Be(d,n) 10 B, and C(d,n)N. Predictions of neutron yield, angular distributions, and energy spectra are compared against available thick target experimental data. Results show varying levels of agreement between the codes depending on the reaction type, energy range, and beam characteristics. Geant4, MCNP and PHITS are the overall best performing codes for the simulation of total neutron yield and yield in the forward direction across most reactions. Across energies where experimental benchmarks exist, inter-code discrepancies in total and forward-directed yield are typically 10 to 30%, with larger deviations at near-threshold incident ion energies. PHITS provides the best overall reproduction of experimental spectra, particularly for the 9 Be(p,n) 9 B reaction. Additionally, PHITS demonstrates superior computational performance for most reactions. These findings provide valuable guidance for ABNS design, highlighting the strengths and limitations of each code for the simulation of low-energy neutron production reactions.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Spatially resolved microlensing time-scale distributions across the Galactic bulge with the VVV survey

ABSTRACT We analyse 1602 microlensing events found in the VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV) near-infrared (NIR) survey data. We obtain spatially resolved, efficiency-corrected time-scale distributions across the Galactic bulge (|ℓ| < 10°, |b| < 5°), using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Spatially resolved peaks and means of the time-scale distributions, along with their marginal distributions in strips of longitude and latitude, are in agreement at a 1σ level with predictions based on the Besançon model of the Galaxy. We find that the event time-scales in the central bulge fields (|ℓ| < 5°) are on average shorter than the non-central (|ℓ| > 5°) fields, with the average peak of the lognormal time-scale distribution at 23.6 ± 1.9 d for the central fields and 29.0 ± 3.0 d for the non-central fields. Our ability to probe the structure of the bulge with this sample of NIR microlensing events is limited by the VVV survey’s sparse cadence and relatively small number of detected microlensing events compared to dedicated optical surveys. Looking forward to future surveys, we investigate the capability of the Roman telescope to detect spatially resolved asymmetries in the time-scale distributions. We propose two pairs of Roman fields, centred on (ℓ = ±9, 5°, b = −0.125°) and (ℓ = −5°, b = ±1.375°) as good targets to measure the asymmetry in longitude and latitude, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Progress Towards Accelerating the Unified Model on Hybrid Multi-Core Systems

The cloud microphysics scheme, CASIM, and the radiation scheme, SOCRATES, are two computationally intensive parts within the Met Office's Unified Model (UM). This study enables CASIM and SOCRATES to use accelerated multi-core systems for optimal computational performance of the UM. Using profiling to guide our efforts, we refactored the code for optimal threading and kernel arrangement and implemented OpenACC directives manually or through the CLAW source-to-source translator. Initial porting results achieved 10.02x and 9.25x speedup in CASIM and SOCRATES respectively on 1 GPU compared with 1 CPU core. A granular performance analysis of the strategy and bottlenecks are discussed. These improvements will enable UM to run on heterogeneous computers and a path forward for further improvements is provided.

Zhang, Wei↗

Modeling and mitigating airborne pathogen risk factors in school buses

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models were developed to simulate the impact of different ventilation scenarios on airborne exposure risks in a 72-passenger school bus. Here, scenarios and factors that were investigated included a moving vs. stationary bus, impacts of a heating unit within the bus, and impacts of alternative ventilation scenarios with different combinations of openings (e.g., windows, door, emergency hatch). Results of the simulations showed that when the bus was stationary, use of the heater increased receptor concentrations unless there was another opening. When the bus was moving, simulations with at least two sets of openings separated from each other in the forward and aft directions produced a through-flow condition that reduced concentrations via dilution from outside air by a factor of ten or more. A single opening in a moving bus generally increased concentrations throughout the cabin due to increased mixing with minimal ventilation. The cumulative exposure risk (time-averaged concentrations) was found to be inversely correlated to the air exchange rate. Stationary and moving-bus scenarios that yielded above ~20 air changes per hour resulted in the lowest cumulative exposures. Recommendations from this study were implemented in new safety and operating procedures by the Albuquerque Public Schools Transportation Center.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Legacy surface change analyses of the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence for direct comparison to planned NA-22 underground conventional high-explosive experiments (Source Physics Experiment 3 (SPE3) - RV/DC Task 1.3 FY22 Final Report)

Recent work under two previous phases of the NNSA NA-22 Source Physics Experiment (SPE) have shown that underground chemical high-explosive experiments can produce detectable surface changes that differ in spatial extent and vertical magnitude depending on the geologic media at the site (Schultz-Fellenz et al., 2018; 2020; Crawford et al., 2021). Neither of these two prior phases of SPE identified natural earthquake-related surface effects in the same region that occurred at a similar depth as the explosive experiments for direct comparison. While earthquakes can also produce surface changes that are detectable using remote sensing data analyses, it is expected that the pattern and spatial extent of surface changes would vary between earthquakes and explosions. However, no direct-observed surface-change signature comparison between earthquakes and explosions has ever been performed. The SPE Phase 3 Rock Valley/Direct Comparison (RV/DC) program presents a unique opportunity to investigate and characterize co-occurrence of both earthquakes and explosions. In this project, we worked to address five tasks in a workflow, as follows: 1. Identify and obtain existing high-resolution legacy satellite and aerial imagery as close in time before and after the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence to temporally constrain the analyses. 2. Transform these pre-earthquake and post-earthquake datasets into digital elevation models (DEMs) using geospatial analysis software packages (e.g., ArcGIS, Agisoft Metashape, and Google Earth Engine). 3. Perform DEM differencing analyses to assess and quantify earthquake-related changes from the 1993 sequence, and develop map products that visualize these analyses. 4. Use the analyses from (3) to: (a) assess spatial distribution and magnitude of surface changes due to the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence, and (b) determine parameters of forthcoming, planned explosion-related surface change data collection from sensors mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) (e.g., spatial extent of collection, design and density of survey control, sensors to deploy, forward speed and line spacing of UAV flight lines, flight altitude). 5. Develop a summary report on the analyses, including how the analyses define parameters and identify focus areas for any future surface change analytical field campaigns related to the explosive experiment. Analyzing these legacy data and identifying whether they can detect any surface changes related to the earthquake sequence facilitates opportunities for direct signature comparison of surface change from explosions at one location, which has never previously been performed. Comparing the surface change signatures from a co-located and depth-equivalent earthquake and an explosion could help to advance remote sensing event discrimination techniques. This report summarizes the work completed toward this ambitious goal.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Hot Springs and Geysers: Exploring Historical and Modern Impacts of Geothermal Energy Production on Associated Natural Surface Systems and Standardizing Management Practices

Surface thermal features, most notably hot springs and geysers are increasingly being recognized for their importance to ecosystems, indigenous cultures, and in some cases agriculture, recreation, and tourism. Geothermal project development poses a potential risk to these natural features but current regulatory requirements for assessing and managing these risks during exploration, permitting and monitoring are somewhat inconsistent and unpredictable across different geothermal fields. This has resulted in uncertainty and increases in exploration risk for geothermal energy developers that have led to costly project delays, cancellations, or hesitation to commit. Varying regulatory requirements may also influence public perception, fostering confusion, distrust and ultimately opposition to geothermal projects, further contributing to project delays or cancellations. At a time when there is an increasing urgency for reliable baseload clean energy, geothermal is a net-zero, renewable solution that additionally provides access to more equitable and environmentally just clean power. Continued integration of geothermal energy into the national energy roadmap can be facilitated through consistent and predictable permitting, providing regulators the framework they need, developers a clear path forward, and transparency that the public deserves. This project, currently in its beginning phases, seeks to address this important issue by providing a technical basis from which to build a preliminary protocol for assessing and managing potential impacts from new or existing geothermal energy projects to surface thermal features and their associated ecosystems. Development of this preliminary protocol will be informed by (1) a literature review of well-documented case studies in the western U.S. and New Zealand to understand the range of conditions that exemplify geothermal-surface thermal systems; (2) development of generic illustrative conceptual-numerical models to quantify, understand, and predict the first-order controls (e.g., pressure and permeability) on surface flows; and (3) additional independent and scientifically rigorous evaluations of geothermal-surface thermal system case studies from the Basin and Range Province that incorporate publicly available data as well as data provided by industry through data-sharing agreements. Learning from the successes of the process used to develop the Induced Seismicity Management Protocol (ISMP), we ultimately aim to use these initial efforts as a springboard for establishing a surface thermal feature management working group that will work collaboratively to finalize the protocol as well as co-create recommended best practices for implementation. We envision that the working group will primarily be composed of representatives from regulatory entities, government agencies, Tribes, academia, national laboratories, and industry, and will include early and regular engagement with community organizations and environmental groups. This will help ensure broad acceptance and implementation of the protocol, which will facilitate a more consistent, predictable, and standardized regulatory process, and help to ensure that geothermal energy continues to provide a reliable source of clean energy, and a pathway to achieving greater energy equity in the U.S.

Best Practices↗

On the effective theory of neutrino-electron and neutrino-quark interactions

We determine the four Fermi effective theory of neutrino interactions within the Standard Model including one-loop electroweak radiative corrections, in combination with the measured muon lifetime and precision electroweak data. Including two-loop matching and three-loop running corrections, we determine lepton coefficients accounting for all large logarithms through relative order $\cal{O}(\alpha \alpha_s)$ and quark coefficients accounting for all large logarithms through ${\cal{O}}(\alpha)$. We present four-fermion coefficients valid in $n_f=3$ and $n_f=4$ flavor quark theories, as well as in the extreme low-energy limit. We relate the coefficients in this limit to neutrino charge radii governing matter effects via forward neutrino scattering on charged particles.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Southwest Wind Power R&D Test Site Development at the National Wind Technology Center (CRADA CRD-12-00472 Final Report)

Southwest Windpower, Inc. (SWWP) has been designing and distributing small wind turbines for more than 22 years and is the recognized global leader in the design, manufacturing and distribution of small wind systems (400-3000 watts). The company has been a pioneer in the development of wind technology and has built and shipped more than 170,000 wind turbines to over 120 countries worldwide. Headquartered in Flagstaff AZ, SWWP has sales representatives in over 88 countries. Applications for SWWP systems include residential homes, commercial properties, micro grids, remote cabins, telecom transmitters, offshore platforms, water pumping and sailboats. In addition, U.S. Department of Defense uses SWWP’s products in Forward Operating Bases (FOB’s), USGS uses them for remote monitoring of glacier movements and the CIA uses them to provide power seismic monitoring. Today, SWWP plans development of new technologies to address distributed energy market needs and become even more aggressive in international markets. This strategy includes extensive Research, Development, Demonstration & Deployment (RDD&D) activities to improve existing production line into more simple, reliable, and cost-effective wind turbine systems. Important part of such activities is the field testing of the new systems, which should provide: (i) validation of the reliable operation of hardware and software; (ii) validation of numerical models of the system and its components; (iii) field comparison of various control and optimization strategies; (iv) customized reliability testing; (v) customized monitoring and analysis testing; and (vi) IEC certification testing (vii) filed demonstration of system performance and reliability. Such field testing facility should encompass multiple towers and appropriate data acquisition systems. SWWP is exploring to move part of the engineering department to Colorado, and execute its RDD&D strategies in this new location. Partnership with NREL will provide great insights into SWWP’s RDD&D processes and more efficient commercialization by utilizing NWTC as the field testing site, and working close with NREL personnel. NWTC is ideally suited to strain the design. NREL is very experienced with customized and IEC testing. During this project, Southwest Windpower aims to improve the value proposition of distributed renewable energy, and make it a competitive choice in the energy markets. As of today, more then 170,000 small wind turbines, manufactured in the U.S., are installed in more then 180 countries. With the improved value proposition, Southwest Windpower wants to create and address new market needs, substantially increase its sales domestically and internationally, which should have positive impact on the creation of American jobs, competitiveness of U.S. economy, export or U.S. products, and the use of renewable energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Revealing the landscape of globally color-dual multi-loop integrands

Abstract We report on progress in understanding how to construct color-dual multi-loop amplitudes. First we identify a cubic theory, semi-abelian Yang-Mills, that unifies many of the color-dual theories studied in the literature, and provides a prescriptive approach for constructingD-dimensional color-dual numerators through one-loop directly from Feynman rules. By a simple weight counting argument, this approach does not further generalize to two-loops. As a first step in understanding the two-loop challenge, we use aD-dimensional color-dual bootstrap to successfully construct globally color-duallocaltwo-loop four-point nonlinear sigma model (NLSM) numerators. The double-copy of these NLSM numerators with themselves, pure Yang-Mills, and$$\mathcal{N}$$= 4 super-Yang-Mills correctly reproduce the known unitarity constructed integrands of special Galileons, Born-Infeld theory, and Dirac-Born-Infeld-Volkov-Akulov theory, respectively. Applying our bootstrap to two-loop four-point pure Yang-Mills, we exhaustively search the space of local numerators and find that it fails to satisfy global color-kinematics duality, completing a search previously initiated in the literature. We pinpoint the failure to the bowtie unitarity cut, and discuss a path forward towards non-local construction of color-dual integrands at generic loop order.

Physics↗

Determination of the mean energy of fast electron losses and anisotropies through thick-target emission on WEST

Abstract A new method to obtain the mean energy of fast electron losses in fusion plasmas using a versatile multi-energy hard x-ray (HXR) detector is presented. The method is based on measuring the thick-target emission of tungsten in the divertor region produced by fast electron losses interacting with the target and modeling the tungsten spectra by a Monte Carlo code which simulates the interaction between a beam of electrons and a solid target. The mean energy of the fast electron losses is determined through the comparison between the experimental and synthetic emission. The results show that fast electron losses during lower hybrid current drive discharges at WEST have a mean energy of 90–140 keV and represent only 2% of the total heat flux at the target. Additionally, anisotropic HXR emission has been detected for the first time at the WEST core and edge plasma, with opposite directions. It is due to the forward-peak emission of two distinctive populations of fast electrons: co-current fast electrons in the core and counter-current fast electron losses at the inner strike point. In view of future experiments like ITER where electron cyclotron current drive will generate a fast electron population, this technique could serve as a real-time monitor of fast electron losses and eventually feed an actuator on the current drive generation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Transporter annotations are holding up progress in metabolic modeling

Mechanistic, constraint-based models of microbial isolates or communities are a staple in the metabolic analysis toolbox, but predictions about microbe-microbe and microbe-environment interactions are only as good as the accuracy of transporter annotations. A number of hurdles stand in the way of comprehensive functional assignments for membrane transporters. These include general or non-specific substrate assignments, ambiguity in the localization, directionality and reversibility of a transporter, and the many-to-many mapping of substrates, transporters and genes. In this perspective, we summarize progress in both experimental and computational approaches used to determine the function of transporters and consider paths forward that integrate both. Investment in accurate, high-throughput functional characterization is needed to train the next-generation of predictive tools toward genome-scale metabolic network reconstructions that better predict phenotypes and interactions. More reliable predictions in this domain will benefit fields ranging from personalized medicine to metabolic engineering to microbial ecology.

Casey, John↗

A Model for Lean Corporate/ Startup Interfaces: Unlocking Resources of Midcap Corporations Providing a Pathway to Advanced Energy Technologies

Commercializing energy technologies through traditional market pathways is challenging for early-stage energy innovators. Development cycles in energy are long and expensive, and adoption is difficult, making energy technologies of limited interest to venture capital relative to industries with faster growth and shorter product life cycles such as life sciences and software. As such, partnerships with established corporations are one of the most promising, and in some cases only, go-to-market pathways for energy technologies. Startups often seek to work with, large well-known Fortune 500 (and similar) companies. However, the size and risk aversion of those firms often makes partnering challenging. It can take well over 12 months for a large corporation to agree to commercial terms and get internal board / management approval to move forward with a binding agreement with a startup for even a simple starting partnership. This timeline is prohibitive for most early-stage companies who are both time and money constrained, and often working in highly competitive commodity sectors. Mid-cap corporations ($\$ $100M to $\$ $10B) are a promising but untapped resource for partnering with technology developers because they are often nimbler, tend to be fiercely competitive, and are looking for new revenue or cost-saving opportunities. These factors make them both more receptive to disruptive technologies, and more capable of integrating them. However, while Fortune 500 companies often have venturing groups that facilitate the initial connection process, most midcap incumbents do not have the resources to create standalone corporate venture groups. As a result, although they could help each other significantly (startup technologies make midcaps more competitive; midcaps offer a faster commercialization pathway to startups), midcap companies and startups rarely work together. In 2017, ADL Ventures (ADL) received Award #DE-EE0008111 from DOE EERE’s Innovative Pathways program to unlock the domain expertise and material resources of midcap companies. The goal of the award was to support energy technology commercialization via an innovation platform for startups to interface with midcap corporations. During the grant period, we have developed a novel open innovation platform that allows financially conservative incumbents to efficiently engage with energy innovators and startups, thereby unlocking the incumbents’ domain expertise, strategic capital, R&D facilities, supply chain, and pathways to market. We have executed full-scale open innovation challenges for three clients, exceeding the initial proposed goal of two. We also built a diversified opportunity pipeline which resulted in four projects contracted for 2020, meeting the goals of the proposal, with others pending.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Measurements of electroweak production of a photon in association with two jets in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

The first observation of electroweak production of a photon in association with two forward jets in proton-proton collisions is presented. The measurement uses data recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC during 2016–2018 at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . The analysis is performed in a region enriched in photon production via vector boson fusion, with a requirement on the transverse momentum of the photon to exceed 200 GeV. The cross section is measured to be ${202}_{-32}^{+36}$ fb, at a significance with respect to the null hypothesis that exceeds five standard deviations. This is in agreement with the standard model prediction of ${177}_{-12}^{+13}$ fb. Differential cross sections are measured as a function of various observables. Limits are set on dimension-6 effective field theory operators that contribute to the WW γ interaction. The observed 95% confidence intervals for the corresponding Warsaw basis Wilson coefficients c W and c HWB are [−0.11, 0.16] and [−1.6, 1.5], respectively.

electroweak interaction↗

Compare linear-system solver and preconditioner stacks with emphasis on GPU performance and propose phase-2 NGP solver development pathway

The goal of the ExaWind project is to enable predictive simulations of wind farms comprised of many megawatt-scale turbines situated in complex terrain. Predictive simulations will require computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for which the mesh resolves the geometry of the turbines and captures the rotation and large deflections of blades. Whereas such simulations for a single turbine are arguably petascale class, multi-turbine wind farm simulations will require exascale-class resources. The primary physics codes in the ExaWind project are Nalu-Wind, which is an unstructured-grid solver for the acoustically incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, and OpenFAST, which is a whole-turbine simulation code. The Nalu-Wind model consists of the mass-continuity Poisson-type equation for pressure and a momentum equation for the velocity. For such modeling approaches, simulation times are dominated by linear-system setup and solution for the continuity and momentum systems. For the ExaWind challenge problem, the moving meshes greatly affect overall solver costs as reinitialization of matrices and recomputation of preconditioners is required at every time step. In this report we evaluated GPU-performance baselines for the linear solvers in the Trilinos and hypre solver stacks using two representative Nalu-Wind simulations: an atmospheric boundary layer precursor simulation on a structured mesh, and a fixed-wing simulation using unstructured overset meshes. Both strong-scaling and weak-scaling experiments were conducted on the OLCF supercomputer Summit and similar proxy clusters. We focused on the performance of multi-threaded Gauss-Seidel and two-stage Gauss-Seidel that are extensions of classical Gauss-Seidel; of one-reduce GMRES, a communication-reducing variant of the Krylov GMRES; and algebraic multigrid methods that incorporate the afore-mentioned methods. The team has established that AMG methods are capable of solving linear systems arising from the fixed-wing overset meshes on CPU, a critical intermediate result for ExaWind FY20 Q3 and Q4 milestones. For the fixed-wing strong-scaling study (model with 3M grid-points), the team identified that Nalu-Wind simulations with the new Trilinos and hypre solvers scale to modest GPU counts, maintaining above 70% efficiency up to 6 GPUs. However, there still remain significant bottlenecks to performance: matrix assembly (hypre), AMG setup (hypre and Trilinos) In the weak-scaling experiments (going from 0.4M to 211M gridpoints), it's shown that the solver apply phases are faster on GPUs, but that Nalu-Wind simulation times grow, primarily due to the multigrid-setup process. Finally, based on the report outcomes, we propose a linear solver path-forward for the remainder of the ExaWind project. Near term, the NREL team will continue their work on GPU-based linear-system assembly. They will also investigate how the use of alternatives to the NVIDIA UVM (unified virtual memory) paradigm affects performance. Longer term, the NREL team will evaluate algorithmic performance on other types of accelerators and merge their improvements back to the main hypre repository branch. Near term, the Trilinos team will address performance bottlenecks identified in this milestone, such as implementing a GPU-based segregated momentum solve and reusing matrix graphs across linear-system assembly phases. Longer term, the Trilinos team will do detailed analysis and optimization of multigrid setup.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Development of Innovative Non-Concentrated Alloy (NCA) Fuel Cladding for Advanced Nuclear Reactors

As the nuclear energy sector advances toward next-generation reactors, the need for high-performance fuel cladding materials has become increasingly urgent. Traditional alloys like zirconium and stainless steel are reaching their performance limits under higher temperatures, more corrosive coolants, and extended irradiation. This report presents the development of a new class of fuel cladding materials based on Non-Concentrated Alloys (NCAs) ? multi-element systems designed to deliver enhanced mechanical strength, corrosion resistance, and radiation tolerance. Through a combination of computational modeling (Computer Coupling of Phase Diagrams and Thermochemistry: CALPHAD), simulation-guided alloy selection, and experimental fabrication via arc melting and spark plasma sintering (SPS), three strategic alloy design paths were explored: (1) FeCrAl-based NCAs, (2) refractory-lean neutron-efficient alloys, and (3) equimolar high-entropy compositions. Microstructural analysis confirmed the formation of stable body-centered cubic BCC_A2 phases, while mechanical testing demonstrated hardness values significantly exceeding those of conventional cladding materials. The results highlight the tunability of NCA systems and their potential for balancing strength and ductility ? a critical consideration for in-reactor performance. Looking forward, future work will focus on thermomechanical optimization, CALPHAD refinement, and benchmarking against industry standards to enable scalable deployment. This work not only advances the science of nuclear materials but also supports broader goals in nuclear safety, performance, and nuclear energy innovation.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Statistical Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Proxy Reconstructions

A quantitative analysis of any environment older than the instrumental record relies on proxies. Uncertainties associated with proxy reconstructions are often underestimated, which can lead to artificial conflict between different proxies, and between data and models. In this paper, using ordinary least squares linear regression as a common example, we describe a simple, robust and generalizable method for quantifying uncertainty in proxy reconstructions. We highlight the primary controls on the magnitude of uncertainty, and compare this simple estimate to equivalent estimates from Bayesian, nonparametric and fiducial statistical frameworks. We discuss when it may be possible to reduce uncertainties, and conclude that the unexplained variance in the calibration must always feature in the uncertainty in the reconstruction. This directs future research toward explaining as much of the variance in the calibration data as possible. We also advocate for a “data-forward” approach, that clearly decouples the presentation of proxy data from plausible environmental inferences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗